Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Chapter 11
If one wants to harvest quickly, one must plant carrots and salads; if one has
the ambition to plant oaks, one must have the sense to tell oneself:
my grandchildren will owe me this shade.
(Leon Walras)
In Chapter 8 we introduced Jevons, Menger, and Walras, who led the margi- nalist
fight against the classical economists. In Chapter 9 we saw how the marginalist
analysis was extended to factor markets. The contributions of Alfred Marshall, who
developed the supply-and-demand analysis now used in undergraduate
microeconomic theory courses, were presented in Chapter 10. In this chapter we
consider the other way in which the supply side and demand side were integrated. In
doing so, we look more closely at the contribution of one of the originators of
marginal analysis, Leon Walras.
Walrass use of marginal analysis was only a part of his contribution to modern
economics. His work on marginalism was in many ways more sophisticated than that
of Jevons and Menger, but because it was in French it did not have the same impact.
We devote an entire chapter to Walras because of his general equilibrium theory.
That work has had an enormous impact on the economics profession, and it places
Walras with Marshall as a candidate for father of one of the two branches of
neoclassical economics.
General equilibrium theory is an analysis of the economy in which all sectors are
considered simultaneously. Thus, one considers both the direct and the indirect
effects of any shock to the system, and one considers the cross-market effects
simultaneously with the direct effects. This interrelationship of the sectors of the
economy is relatively simple to conceptualize, but it is an enormously complicated
idea to put down formally. Walrass contribution was to model the general equilibrium
system in a formal manner.
acquires a life of its own not directly related to the decisions of individuals. To arrive
at an analysis of the aggregate economy, one must approach it through partial
equilibrium and then modify that partial equilibrium to be less partialand even less
partial. Ultimately one might be able to extend Marshallian analysis to a
consideration of the aggregate economy. But one will not get there by an analysis of
the general equilibrium. Robert Clower and Axel Leijon- hufvuds interpretation of
Keynesian macroeconomics follows this line of reasoning and suggests that
Keynesian economics was the beginning of a Marshallian approach to an analysis of
the aggregate economy.
By their very essence, models and theories assume that certain elements are held
constant so that they will not influence the behavior of the variables in the model. In
the physical sciences, where the laboratory method has proved so fruitful, the
researcher conducts repeated experiments in which all variables except two are held
constant. One variable for example, the heat applied to a mass of wateris
permitted to vary, and the effect on the other variable is observed. If the water is
observed to boil at 212 degrees Fahrenheit in repeated experiments, we conclude
that with certain factors held constantin this case constant pressure would be
crucialwater boils at that temperature. Economists distinguish between partial and
general equilibrium models in terms of the degree of abstraction in the model. More
factors are assumed to be held constant in partial equilibrium analysis than in
general equilibrium analysis. Partial equilibrium analysis allows only a small number
of variables to vary; all others are assumed constant. General equilibrium analysis
allows many more variables to change. It does not allow all variables to vary, and
thus to influence the model, however, but only those regarded as being within the
scope of economics. General equilibrium models, for example, assume as given the
tastes or preferences of individuals, the technology available for producing goods,
and the institutional structure of the economy and society. Because the scope of
economics as a social science has historically been limited by orthodox theory to
variables that appear to be quantifiable, a mathematical general equilibrium model
appears feasible. Most partial equilibrium models, following the tradition of Alfred
Marshall, limit themselves to the analysis of a particular household, firm, or industry.
Suppose we want to analyze the influence on beef prices of a reduction in costs in
the beef industry. Using the partial equilibrium approach, we would start with the
industry in assumed equilibrium, disturb the equilibrium by making the cost
reduction, and then deduce the new position of equilibrium. During this analysis, all
other forces in the economy are assumed to be fixed and to have no influence on the
beef industry. The reduction in costs in the beef industry would result in the supply of
beef increasing and the price of beef falling to a new equilibrium level. Now suppose
we make our model less restrictive and include in the analysis both the pork and the
beef industries. The immediate effect of lower costs in the beef industry is to lower
beef prices as the supply of beef increases. However, the fall in the price of beef will
also influence the demand for pork. As beef prices fall relative to pork prices, the
demand for pork will decrease as the quantity of beef demanded increases:
consumers will substitute beef for pork. The decrease in demand for pork will result
in a fall in the price of pork, which will result in a decrease in the demand for beef
and a further fall in its price. This fall in the price of beef will further decrease the
demand for pork and, again, lower its price. The interaction between prices and
demands for the two goods will continue, with the resulting changes in prices and
outputs becoming smaller and smaller, until new equilibrium conditions are
established in both industries. In our partial equilibrium model, the beef industry is
assumed to be isolated from the rest of the economy. We can plot a simple graph
showing the consequence of a reduction in costs in the beef industry by means of
supply-and- demand curves. The supply curve of beef
moves out and to the right, and a new equilibrium emerges. But if we show the
interactions between the beef and the pork industries, the resulting graphs become
more complex. Figure 11.1 indicates the shift in the supply curve of beef from S to Si
as a result of the decrease in costs in the beef industry. This falling price of beef
results in an immediate decrease in the demand for pork from d to d1, which lowers
the price of pork. The falling price of pork brings a decrease in the demand for beef
from D to D1. The successive interactions between prices and demand for these two
products are indicated by the downward shift of demand curves until a final
equilibrium is reached. Partial equilibrium analysis is an attempt to reduce a complex
problem to a more manageable form by isolating one sector of the economy, for
example one industry, and ignoring the interaction between that sector and the rest
of the economy. It is useful for contextual argumentation. The gains in clarity and
analytical neatness, however, are achieved at the expense of theoretical rigor and
completeness. If we were to move toward a more general equilibrium model by
adding a third and fourth industry to our example, the analysis would become so
complex that diagrammatic representation would produce more confusion than
clarity. Walrass great contribution was his recognition that the complex
interdependence of industries could best be understood and communicated
mathematically. His general equilibrium analysis is useful for noncontextual
argumentation.
Walras in Words
Suppose we are interested in price and output in the beef industry. The demand and
supply for beef can be expressed as equations relating price to quantity supplied and
quantity
demanded. Although there are three variables in the modelprice, quantity supplied,
and quantity demandedat equilibrium there are only two unknowns, because
quantity demanded equals quantity supplied. The problem of finding the equilibrium
price in the beef industry, then, consists of an equation for supply, an equation for
demand, and two unknowns. Let us now move from this partial equilibrium model to
a more complex general equilibrium model. Even in a general equilibrium model it is
necessary to disregard certain aspects of a complex economy, so we will assume an
economy made up of only two sectors, firms and households, and ignore the
government and foreign sectors. We will assume, moreover, that firms do not buy
intermediate goods from each other, that household preferences do not change, that
the level of technology is fixed, that full employment exists, and that all industries are
perfectly competitive. A schematic representation of such an economy is presented
in Figure 11.2.
Households enter the markets for final goods with given preferences and limited
incomes and express a dollar demand for these goods. Firms enter the final markets
willing to supply goods; thus, a supply of final goods flows from firms to households.
It is in these markets, represented by the upper part of Figure 11.2, that the prices
and quantities of final goods supplied and quantities demanded are determined. For
these markets to be in equilibrium, the quantity supplied and the quantity demanded
for each particular commodity must be equal. Factor markets are represented by the
lower portion of Figure 11.2. In these markets, firms demand land, labor, and capital
from households, and there is a dollar flow of income from firms to households. As
households supply the factors of production in these markets, factor prices are
determined. Equilibrium here requires that all markets be cleared so that quantities
supplied equal quantities demanded for each factor. Households receive their
incomes from factor markets and spend them in markets for final goods. For
households to maximize the satisfaction they receive from consuming final goods,
given their limited income, they distribute their expenditures so that the last dollar
spent on any particular good yields the same marginal utility as the last dollar spent
on any other good (Gossens Second Law). The flow of income between firms and
households represents the national income of the economy; for this to be in
equilibrium, households must spend all the income they receive. The distribution of
income is determined in factor markets and depends upon the prices of the various
factors and the quantities of factors sold by each household. When firms in a market
economy look one way, they face the prices for final goods; when they look the other
way, they face prices for the various factors of production. Given these prices and
the technology available, they combine inputs to produce outputs in a manner that
will maximize their profits. This requires that they combine inputs in such a way as to
produce a given output at the lowest possible cost and that they produce at a level of
output that maximizes profits. Competitive forces will result in a situation at long-run
equilibrium in which the price of final goods is just equal to their average cost of
production. For the level of national income to be in equilibrium, firms must spend all
their receipts from final markets in factor markets. The first and most obvious lesson
from this somewhat abstract example of an economy is that the various parts of the
economy are interrelated. It is misleading to think of one variable in the system as
determining another variable. If equilibrium exists, all the variables are determined
simultaneously. Suppose that we disturb the equilibrium by changing the price of a
single final good. This will have repercussions throughout the entire system, as
consumers will change their spending patterns and firms will change their outputs.
These changes will make themselves felt in the factor markets, as firms will change
their demands for inputs, thereby bringing about a new constellation of input prices
and a different distribution of income. Smith, Quesnay, and others had recognized
the interdependence of the various parts of a market economy. But to go beyond the
simple statement that everything depends on everything else, it was essential to
specify the relationships between the various sectors in greater detail. Walrass
genius enabled him to lay the groundwork for this more exact specification through
the use of mathematics. When the economy is considered in an explicitly
mathematical Walrasian model with mathematical notations, questions arise that
were not apparent in our verbal analysis of his model. The demands of households
for final goods can be expressed as equations relating price to quantity demanded
for each household. The market demand for a given final good can also be
expressed as an equation obtained by summing the household demand equations
The market supply for final goods can be obtained in a similar manner by summing
the firms equations relating price to quantity supplied. Equilibrium in the markets for
final goods requires that quantity supplied equal quantity demanded for each final
good. Market demand and supply equations can be derived analogously for factor
markets, with the equilibrium condition being that all markets clear. For households,
an equation can be derived with one side indicating the households income (the
sum of the price of each factor sold times the quantity sold for all factors) and the
other side indicating expenditures (the sum of the price of each final good bought
times the quantity purchased for all goods purchased). For the household to be in
equilibrium, income must equal expenditures, and expenditures must be made in
such a way as to maximize utility. The equilibrium conditions for the firm to maximize
profits, and for its average costs to equal price through the force of competition, can
likewise be expressed in equations. Thus, we arrive at a system of simultaneous
equations that indicates the interrelatedness of the sectors of the economy. The
Walrasian formulation of the working of a market economy raises some new
questions. For example, is a general equilibrium solution possible? Will the
equilibrium conditions necessary produced by the market in the various sectors of
the economy be consistent with a general equilibrium for the entire economy? How
does production fit into the model? The unknowns determined by the market and
given by a general equilibrium solution are (1) the prices of final goods, (2) the prices
of factors, (3) the quantities of final goods supplied and quantities demanded, and (4)
the quantities of factors supplied and quantities demanded. Is there only one set of
prices and quantities that will result in equilibrium for the entire economy, or are there
many possible equilibria? If a solution to this problem does exist, is it a solution that
is economically meaningful, or will it yield negative prices and quantities? Will the
solution be a stable equilibrium or an unstable equilibrium? Is the system
determinate? Several possibilities exist. The very process of the market working may
result in shifting mathematical functions that will not result in final equilibrium.
Another possibility is that a final equilibrium will be reached, but that its position will
depend upon the path followed by the variables in the system. This suggests that
different final equilibrium values are possible. Finally, how will the equilibrium be
achieved? Who sets the price? What happens if there is disequilibrium trading?
Walras was aware of some of these problems, though others were not identified or
solved for nearly sixty years after 1874. Walras did not answer any of these
questions satisfactorily. Thus, the historical judgment must be that if he is the father
of modern neoclassical economics, he did not make it to the promised land. Instead,
he promised much and delivered only an abstract framework containing many holes.
Despite this negative judgment, even the harshest critic must agree that he did
present a model that afforded great insight into the workings of a market and that
could serve as a foundation for further theoretical developments. When one
considers the development of economics over the ninety years since his death, one
can say that he has had an enormous impact on economics.
Walras in Retrospect
Walrass high place in the history of economic theory rests partly on his independent
discovery of marginal utility theory, but more on his conceptualization of the
interdependence of the sectors of a market economy. Although others before him
had perceived the interrelatedness of households, firms, prices of final goods, prices
of factors of production, and quantities supplied and quantities demanded of all final
and intermediate goods, no one had been able to express this perception as
precisely as Walras did by stating it as a system of simultaneous equations. Now it
was possible to see that equilibrium for the household and equilibrium in the markets
for final goods were consistent with equilibrium for the firm and equilibrium in factor
markets. The attempts by Jevons and Menger to find a simple causal relationship
between marginal utility, the prices of final goods, and the prices of factors of
production seem unsophisticated compared with Walrass general equilibrium model.
Walras clearly demonstrated the power of mathematics as a tool of economic
analysis, although full acceptance of his message did not come until well into the
twentieth century. The appropriate use of mathematics is still being debated by some
today.
Walrass marginal analysis was more sophisticated than either Jevonss or Mengers.
He did not see a simple direction of causation from subjective utility to value; instead,
he saw a complexly interrelated system. Because Walras was focusing on the
interdependence of sectors, and in a sense only working backward to demand, he
did not fall into some of the traps that Jevons and Menger did. Whereas Jevons and
Menger were content to search for a one-way, cause-and-effect relationship among
utility, prices of final goods, and prices of factors of production, Walrass general
equilibrium model showed that they were all interconnected. In the Walrasian
system, all prices are mutually determined, and it is not possible to assign value
causation in either direction. The prices of final goods influence and are influenced
by the prices of factors of production. In a general equilibrium model, everything
depends upon everything else. It is not at all clear that this sophisticated exposition
was the result of understanding, and not a byproduct of Walrass focus on general
equilibrium rather than on utility. For Walras, utility was merely something he needed
to assume in order to get to the demand curves he wanted. Thus, rather than
providing a full utility underpinning for demand analysis, Walras only hinted at the
underpinning.
Walrass general equilibrium theory was dependent not only upon demand and,
therefore, utility but also upon supply and, therefore, diminishing marginal
productivity. Here, too, there is much ambiguity in Walrass exposition. In Lesson 20
of the first three editions, his model used constant coefficients of production, which is
to say that there is no marginal product because one factor cannot be varied
independently of another. Thus, his early exposition of general equilibrium theory did
not have the second underpinning of a full general equilibrium model. Despite this,
he stated that the analysis can be extended to include variable coefficients of
production. The reader is left to accept that possibility on faith. Walras recognized
the problem and in the late 1800s asked a colleague how he could extend his
analysis to include variable factors of production. Thus, in 1900, in the fourth edition,
he incorporated variable factors of production and, thereby, the marginal productivity
underpinnings of supply. Yet Walrass incorporation of marginal productivity came six
years after Philip Wicksteed had formally developed the marginal productivity
concept and had publicized its importance. Because of this, Walrass contribution to
marginal analysis on the supply front is open to question. As was the case with
marginal utility, his interest was in the supply function that he needed for his general
equilibrium theory, not in the production function that underlay it. Walras was aware
of some of the deficiencies of his model. Other problems were not identified or
solved for nearly sixty years after 1874, and some are still not solved. To see some
of these problems, consider the following questions.
Some individuals thought that by simply counting equations and unknowns, the
existence of a general equilibrium could be deduced. Abraham Wald showed in 1933
that that was not the case and that proving the existence of a solution was far more
complicated. It was only in 1954 that Gerard Debreu and Kenneth Arrow were able to
prove the existence of a general equilibrium solution.
Just because one can mathematically prove the existence of general equilibrium
does not mean that it has any relevance to the real world. Because the connection
between general equilibrium and the real world is so tangential, it is not at all clear
that the mathematics is relevant. It has been called the celestial mechanics of a
nonexistent world.
Walras thought he had answered this complicated question, but he hadnt. There are
strict conditions under which such consistency will be achieved.
The unknowns determined by the market and given by a general equilibrium solution
are (1) the prices of final goods, (2) the prices of factors, (3) the quantities of final
goods supplied and quantities demanded, and (4) the quantities of factors supplied
and quantities demanded. Is there only one set of prices and quantities that will
result in equilibrium for the entire economy, or are there many possible equilibria?
An equilibrium is not necessarily stable; if the model is thrown out of equilibrium, will
it return to equilibrium? This issue was answered relatively quickly, and the
conditions necessary for stability were shown. What was not shown was whether
those conditions fit reality. Several events might actually undermine stability. The
very process of the market at work may cause shifting mathematical functions that
will not result in final equilibrium. In another scenario, a final equilibrium may be
reached, but its position may depend upon the path followed by the variables in the
system. Thus, different final equilibrium values may be possible.
How will the equilibrium be achieved? Who sets the price, and what happens if there
is disequilibrium trading?
Walras struggled with this question, which is now playing a significant role in modern
macroeconomic debates. He proposed numerous schemes involving written and oral
pledges and a tatonnement process in which an auctioneer (who has since acquired
the name the Walrasian Auctioneer) processes all the bids and offers, determines
which prices will clear all markets, and only then allows trading. Donald Walker, who
has examined these schemes in depth, has concluded that the model is fatally
flawed, because Walras did not endow it with enough viable features. Walkers
conclusion is extremely damaging to the new classical branch of macroeconomics,
which bases its analysis on the reasonableness of the assumed auctioneer. These
problems are substantial, but they do not undermine Walrass achievement. He set
the framework within which many of the best minds in modern economics have
posed questions. Issues concerning the existence and stability of a general
equilibrium occupied economists well into the 1950s. Other questions are still
occupying them. Even though Walrass formulation was less than perfect
mathematically, it has been the framework for advanced research since the 1950s.
The source of Walrass success, his use of mathematics, was also the cause of
some of the failures of general equilibrium theory. The highly abstract model offered
insight into the interrelatedness of the economy, but Walras made no attempt to
measure the concepts in his model empirically. They were not designed to be
measured; it was theory without empirical application. The difficulty of measuring the
concepts has remained a criticism of general equilibrium theory through modern
times. Thus, although it demonstrates the relationships existing within an economy in
equilibrium, general equilibrium theory does not explain what happens in that
economy when the factors that Walras took as fixed actually change. The conclusion
of most scholars is that although the general equilibrium model has tremendous
potential for use in answering questions concerning the consequences of alternative
economic policies, this potential has yet to be realized. Frank Hahn, a general
equilibrium theorist, writes:
It was Adam Smith who first realized the need to explain why this kind of social
arrangement does not lead to chaos. Millions of greedy, self-seeking individuals, in
pursuit of their own ends and mainly uncontrolled in these pursuits by the State,
seem to common sense a sure recipe for anarchy. Smith not only posed an
obviously important question, but also started us off on the road to answering it.
General Equilibrium Theory as classically stated by Arrow and Debreu [1954 and
1959] is near the end of that road. Now that we have got there we find it less
enlightening than we had expected.2
It is instructive to briefly compare Walras with the Marshallian approach. Walras was
interested in technique and form. He was looking for the most general mathematical
exposition of a model of the economy. Marshall regarded economic theory as an
engine of analysis; it must relate to the real world, or it should be forgotten, or
perhaps simply kept at the back of ones mind, to be brought into the analysis when
relevant. There could not have been two more different approaches. As we will see in
the chapter on modern microeconomics, Marshallian economics rules in many
undergraduate courses, but Walrasian economics has become the mainstream
graduate microeconomics. Despite its victory, the problems of the Walrasian
approach are significant and leave modern microeconomics vulnerable to much
criticism.
Walras on Policy
2 Frank Hahn, General Equilibrium Theory, Public Interest, Special Issue (1980),
p. 123.
At the same time, Walras was not a thoroughgoing proponent of laissez faire: he
found many areas in which government intervention was desirable.
VILFREDO PARETO
SUMMARY
Walrasian general equilibrium analysis is impressive, but there were many problems
in Walrass formulation, only some of which have been resolved today. The same
can be said for its competitor, Marshallian partial equilibrium analysis. Despite their
flaws, the accomplishments of both Walras and Marshall were considerable. They
provided vehicles to integrate the work of the marginalists on both the supply and the
demand side, and as such providers they deserve to be called the fathers of
neoclassical economics.
Key Terms
2. Are Quesnay and the physiocrats related more to Walras or to Marshall? Why?
4. For Walras, utility was only something he needed to assume to obtain the
demand results he wanted. Discuss this statement. 5. What difference would the
existence of multiple equilibria make for general equilibrium analysis?
8. If a policy affects relative prices, is it likely to meet the Pareto optimal criteria?
Why or
why not?
9. A policy transfers income from individual A, who gets zero marginal utility from his
marginal income, to individual B, who gets a high marginal utility from income. Will
this policy be a Pareto optimal policy? Why or why not?
11. That absent-minded professor is becoming a pain, but a job is a job. This time,
shes doing an article titled Walras and the Art of Economics. She knows that
somewhere in his writings, Walras discussed Coquelins distinction between the art
of economics and the science of economics, but she doesnt remember where. Since
youve been so good at finding other citations, she sends you off to find Walrass.
After you find it, she wants you to compare it with J. N. Keyness distinction
discussed in this text.
Suggested Readings