Cuba without castro

What it could mean for America

BY SAM DEALEY

THAS BEEN a thorn in America's side for almost half a century: an island nation that nearly plunged us
into nuclear war with the Soviet Union: a country that brought military humiliation to the United States
at a place called the Bay of Pigs; a dictatorial ruler who has led a chorus of

Latin American leftists screaming. Yankee. go home!"

Now Cuba is on the precipice of a new era as 80-year-old Fidel Castro exits the stage. Ever since
Castros hospitalization last July and the temporary" transfer of power to his younger brother Raul.
Cuba watchers have been weighing some big questions: Can the authoritarian regime survive the loss
of its charismatic founder? And if it collapses. what will happen to Cubaand what will it mean for
America?

THINGS musr CHANGE, I know it. They cant go on as they are. lose, a middle-aged taxi driver. sits
listlessly at a bar in central Havana last December ex-pressing the frustrations of many Cubans. As jobs
go. Ios's is a good one. secured by his many years in the armed forces. But he complains that more
than 95 percent of his earnings go to the government, and he chafes under the purchasing restrictions
that forbid ordinary Cubans from enter-ing the plush beach resorts and hotel restaurants that cater to
foreigners.

"I make money. so why isnt my money any good?" los says. "Why cant I buy my car? And the hotels
why can't I take my wife to dinner there?" He pauses. then adds. "I have sacriced a lot for my country,
for my government. No, my friend, there wil be changes.

Jose is not alone in saying so. Ask a Cuban how life goes, and quite often the answer will be, Mala, malo,
male( Bad. bad. bad).

This is not the future that most Cubans expected when Castro and his band of guerrillas deposed the
corrupt. crony regime of Fulgencio Batista y Zaldivar in 1959. Castro had promised to restore the
constitution and hold elections. but neither hap-pened. Instead, Cuba became an au-tocracy of secret
prisons, whimsical laws and few freedoms. It also be-came dependent on subsidies from friendly nations
to the tune of$6 bil-lion a year from the Soviet Union(until the Berlin Wall collapsed) and 100.000
barrels of oil a day now coming from the leftist regime in Venezuela.

Nevertheless. there were successes under Castro. Cuba's literacy rate ap-proaches 97 percent. and
health care is free and universal. At the height of the Cold War. Cuban soldiers fought ably on
Communist front lines from Latin America to Africa to Asia.

Such accomplishments still per-suade some to believe in Castros Cuba. 1 have free health care, my
chil dren go to a good school, says a me- chanic as he retreads a tire outside a bus terminal. Where
else in Latin Americawhere in America or the rest of the worldwould I have this?"
But even Castro's proudest achieve-ments are steadily crumbling. Cubans say that sick wards inside the
once-famed hospitals are nothing more than rooms lined with dirty mattresses. The countrys birthrate
is in the bot-tom quartile of the world. only slightly better than Aruba, the regions worst.

And the suicide rate is among the highest of any country. The overall impression is that Cuban society is
anemic. aging and unhappy. A poll conducted in 2005 by the group Spanish Solidarity with Cuba found
that 80 percent of Cubans be-lieve changes are necessary. When asked their preference for democracy
or dictatorship, only 20 percent chose the latter. A similar poll last Septem-ber by Gallup, though limited
to Ha-vana and Santiago, found that iust 26 percent of the residents said they were satised with the
freedom they have to choose what to do with their lives."

Sit down with Cubans and many will cite very specic grievances, such as anger with the food-rationing
sys-tem. Over dinner in the home of one Cuban family. the mother pulls out a pocket-size stamp book
and thumbs through it, pointing out the missing stamps for food. I'm supposed to get tomatoes and
other things. but they don't exist ." she says. To her, the food rationing is a joke.

Her l7year~old daughter is apply ing for university but worries she won't be selected for one of the
cov- eted spots. Although an excellent stu- dent, she didn't always participate in the orchestrated street
marches for Castro. While some students truly be- lieve in the Cuban experiment, the daughter says.
many more just play the game. waiting for the moment when they can leave.

despite THIS disgruntlement. a popular uprising doesnt seem imminent. One of the clearest signs came
last Iuly when Ratil took over for his ailing brother. 0! the handful of prominent dissidents in Cuba. Only
one. Dr. Darsi Ferrer. called for open civil disobedience during the transi-tion. No one heeded his call.
That was the perfect opportunity for the dissidents to act. says a Western diplomat posted in Havana.
Only one did. Its pretty clear to me it wont be an immediate popular uprising."

In an important sense, after so many decades of Castros rule, the Cuban peoples collective will has
given way to individual survival. Why stick your neck out only to get it chopped off?

Still. there are hopeful signs of oppo-sition. According to El Directorio Democratico Cubano, a prominent
exile group in Miami, there were more than 3.300 acts of deance against the regime in 2005. Most
were vigils and small get-togethers. but there were also public protests and mass peti-tions demanding
change. Interestingly. an increasing number of these acts take place in the provinces far from Havana,
suggesting not only that the regime's grip is slipping but also that ideas are spreading.

With the transition from Fidel to Ratil all but solidied. the regime wiil next need to manage the transfer
of power to another. younger leader. If anyone is seen as having the upper hand, it's Carlos Lage Davila,
the man behind the economic reforms of the mid-19903. which Ra] supported but Fidel later all but
rescinded. In his mid- 505, Lage is the youngest of the main contenders for power and is probably
closest to Ratil. He also has strong ties to Venezuela's president, Hugo Cha- vez. a strident toe of the
United States whom some regard as Castros truest successor in the region. But his as- cension is far
from settled. The best analogy is that there are a bunch of hyenas around Fidel." says Thor Halvorssen.
president of the Human Rights Foundation in New York, and they're going to have a go at each other.
And who's going to win, nobody knows.

If Cuba remains socialist. its chief allies will be other leftist regimes in the region: Bolivia. Nicaragua,
Brazil. Ecuador and. of course. Venezuela. Other countries likely to enhance their ties with Cuba are
Iran. China and Russia alliances that could further elevate tensions between these powerful countries
and the United States.

Loon LONGER TERM. however, and all bets are off. According to Caleb McCarry. the State Department's
point man on Cuba. ever since Castros illness last summer. change. and the expectation of change, is
greater than it has ever been in Cuba."

That change could have enormous implications for Americans. Restrictions on trade and travel to Cuba
would likely be lifted. with American businesses pouring back into the island nation that's only 90 miles
from the Florida coast. It might also mean something that wories our government: a sudden ood of
Cuban migrs to our shores. with attendant political and social strains.

Most important, the regime's demise would deal a severe blow to the hemisphere's resurgent leftist
move-ment. "If the regime falls, all sorts of truths are going to come to light , says lan Vsqucz. a Latin
America special-ist with the libertarian Cato Institute. "And theyre going to be ugly truths.We're going
to learn what life's really like for ordinary Cubans. and that should help to demystify the Cuban
experiment."

For one Cuban. General lose Quevedo Perez. that realization already came. Now 81 and living in Miami.
Quevedo is perhaps the only Cuban to point a gun at Castro and live to tell. For ten days during the
Summer Offensive of 1958. a major effort by the Batista regime to repel Castro's rebels, Quevcdo
watched in frustration as his weary and half-starved government troops withered under guerrilla
attacks. Eventually, they had to sur-render. Quevedo assembled what re-mained of his troops and
steeled him-self for his meeting with the young rebel leader. I was sure they were going to execute
me. he says.

Instead. Castro greeted Quevedo with an embrace. turned over Quevedos men to the Red Cross. and
al-lowed the general to keep his sidearm and roam freely about the camp. When the Batista regime
denounced Quevedo for surrendering. Castro broad-cast messages saying the ofcer had fought
bravely. So not only does he spare my life, he also rescues my dig.nity." Quevedo says with gravity.

For the next ve months. Until Batista ed the country on New Years Day 1959. Quevedo remained
with Castro. gradually coming under his sway. When Fidel speaks to you. it is very hard for him not to
convince you." Quevedo says. I was very con- vinced that Fidel was going to save the Republic."

Over the following four decades. Quevedo rose in importance. He over-saw the founding of the regime's
military academies and was later dispatched as the regime's military attache to Moscow. In 1996, his
long-overdue promotion to general came through, and two years later he joined the reserves.
By then. however, his loyalty to Cas- tro was wavering. Independent of my personal debt to Fidel. there
were many things I didnt like." he now says. Things kept on happening. and I couldnt stand it. [But]
like a good ofcer. I stuck my head in the sand.While visiting his dying son in Miami, the general
defected. becoming the highest-ranking Cuban army ofcial to do so.

Quevedo claims he's learned a great many things about the regime he served. Some people say I
betrayed Fidel. But I feel like I am the one who was betrayed."

Like General Quevedo. Cuba itself has long been sustained by Castros charisma. But with his passing. it
will become clear that the greatest threat to his revolution isn't the US. govern-ment but the
impoverished masses themselves. As one dissident inside Cuba. who asked not to be identied. said.
You are not the danger. We are the danger."