MATH2021

Introduction to Applied Mathematics

1 MATH2021
 General Information

Dr Des Hill and Dr Thomas Stemler

2 hour lecture plus 2 hour laboratory per week
Both recorded
Laboratory is essential part of unit
Lectures introduce ideas, laboratories fill in details
Sometimes lectures might overflow into labs, etc.
All slides and overheads posted on web afterwards
No textbook
Two tests 15% each, exam 70%
Assumed you know university conduct rules
Be on time for lectures

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 What is Applied Mathematics?

Reality poses a problem to understand or solve

Build a Mathematical model
Succinct description of problem in mathematics
Mathematics is a highly specialised language
Start simple, no more complicated than needed
But not too simple, do not want to miss anything important
Solve the mathematical equations, if you can . . .
What if I cant!?
Perhaps not simple enough?
Analytical or numerical solution; Approximate solutions
What do we learn from the solution?
Does the model need improvements?

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 Example : Fishery

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 Building a model

What is important and what is not?

Variables and parameters
Dependent and independent variables
Functional relationships z = f (x, y), x, y, z R
Difference and differential relationships
xt+1 = f (xt , xt1 , yt ), xt , yt R, t Z Discrete time
dx
= f (x, y), x(t), y(t) R, t R Continuous time
dt
Can have discrete state models too xt Z

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 Example : Fishery
What kind of model? What is important?
Fish Eggs Fry (mature) Fish Eggs . . .
Do we model what happens to every fish, egg, and fry?
No.
Fish, eggs, fry are discrete, exist in continuous time
Model number of fish, eggs, fry, x(t), y(t), z(t) Z, t R.
But fisheries have a large number of fish
And each fish lays a huge number of eggs each year
Relatively few eggs and fry survive to be mature fish
Most fish breed seasonally, once per year
Let xt R, t Z be number of mature fish in year t
Model: For a, b R and r Z, and a, b, r 0,

xt+1 = axt + bxtr

What does this equation say?

6 What are a, b and r? MATH2021
 Example : Fishery
Model: For a, b R and r Z, and a, b, r 0,

xt+1 = axt + bxtr

What does this equation say? What are a, b and r?

xt is mature fish breeding in year t
xt+1 is mature fish breeding in the next year t + 1
xtr is mature fish breeding r years ago, that is year t r
a is fraction of mature breeding fish to survive to next
breeding season
b number of eggs/fry to mature to breeding age fish in
year t + 1 per mature breeding fish in breeding season of
year t r.

What assumptions are being made in this model?

What does the solution of model say?
What is the solution!?

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 Example : Fishery

Model: For a, b R and r Z, and a, b, r 0,

xt+1 = axt + bxtr

Reality Check: Sometimes xt as t

Ignored that fish have to eat. Need to modify model
Suppose only a fixed amount of fish-food to go around
If too many fish, then some fish starve and/or lay less eggs
a and b not constant parameters, depend on xt somehow?
Possible modified model:

xt+1 = af (xt )xt + bg(xtr )xtr

Keep a and b, introduce f (x) and g(x)

What should f (x) and g(x) be?

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 Example : Fishery
Possible modified model:

xt+1 = af (xt )xt + bg(xtr )xtr

What should f (x) and g(x) be?

f (x), g(x) 0 and f (x), g(x) 1 as x 0
a and b retain original meaning for not large populations
f (x) and g(x) continuous decreasing functions of x
As population grows there is less food to go around
Let lim f (x) = 0, f (x) = 0 for x > M , same for g(x)
xM
If population exceeds M , then no fish survives
New Model:
 xt   xtr 
xt+1 = a 1 xt + b 1 xtr
M M
When xt , xtr < M , otherwise bracketed factors are zero
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 Example : Fishery
New Model:
 xt   xtr 
xt+1 = a 1 xt + b 1 xtr
M M
When xt , xtr < M , otherwise bracketed factors are zero
Simplest Mathematical Model: (r = 0)

zt+1 = zt (1 zt ) , zt [0, 1]

Rescaled variable zt = xt /M , =?
Alternative Mathematical Model: Non-seasonal breeding?
dx  x
= x 1 , x(t) 0
dt M

What does this model say?

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 Example : Climate

Insolation

Greenhouse gases
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 Albedo and Greenhouse Blanketing

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 Calculating Effective Heating

ax0 x0 insolation
a albedo (0 a 1)
x1 = (1 a)x0
x0 x2 = bx1
b blanketing (0 b 1)
x3 = bx2
x4 = bx3
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Total effective heating W = x1 + x2 + x3 + x4 + . . .

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 Calculating Effective Heating

If x1 = (1 a)x0 and x2 = bx1 , x3 = bx2 , . . . , then

W = x1 + x2 + x3 + x4 + . . .
= (1 a)x0 (1 + b + b2 + b3 + b4 + )
1a
= x0
1b
Effective Heating

1a
W = x0
1b

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 Dynamics of Clouds

There is a dynamic balance

of albedo and blanketing.
If surface heating increases,
ocean temperatures rise,
increasing evaporation.
Increased evaporation
means more clouds,
increases albedo, decreases
surface heating.
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Ocean temperatures fall,
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 Simple Atmosphere Model

Surface heating with cloud albedo and blanketing effects

Consider the relative surface heating over a year
Heating in one year depends on the previous year,
because of the cloud albedo and blanketing effect
Difference equation for each year is something like

xt+1 = a xt (1 xt )
xt+1 = c x2t
Results, for c x2 , look like this, when c = 1.99
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

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 Dynamics for different c

0.5
0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
c = 0.5 0.2
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
equilibrium iteration

1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
c=1 0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
periodic iteration

1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
c = 1.5 -1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
chaotic iteration

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 Attractor versus Parameter c

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 Fractal Branching

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 Crisis and Hysteresis

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 Summary

Concept of a model
Succinct description in the language of mathematics
What is important and what isnt important?
Variables and parameters
Dependent and independent variables
Functional relationships
Difference and differential relationships
Examples
Discrete time and Continuous time model
Fishery and Climate
Behaviours
Equilibrium, periodic, chaotic behaviour
Bifurcations

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