Topic 2

Global Energy Outlook

CH E 4530/5530 KB. 2015

 Humanitys Top Ten Problems for the
Next 50 Years

1. ENERGY
2. WATER
3. FOOD
4. ENVIRONMENT
2003 6.3 Billion People
5. POVERTY 2050 8-10 Billion People
6. TERRORISM & WAR
7. DISEASE
8. EDUCATION
9. DEMOCRACY
10. POPULATION

Source: Dr. Richard Smalley, Energy & Nanotechnology Conference

Rice University, Houston May 3, 2003
Oil Price History (and Events)

Source: http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm
When Crude Oil Price is Over $100/bbl,

Nearly all the alternative fuel options become

technoeconomically relevant.
As recent as in March 2003, it was $31/bbl.
In the 80s and 90s, energy technologists used
to say that many of the synfuel processes would
be competitive if the oil price were consistently
over $35/bbl.
Many of the development projects were halted
due to low oil prices in the 80s and 90s. Some
plants were shut down and even dismantled.
When the Gas Price hit Over $4/gallon for the first time,

Process economics of various

energy technologies are
changing drastically.

Options that did not look

economically attractive before
look very promising now.
Process A may not be inferior to
Process B any more.
Advances in unrelated technology areas make
reassessment necessary.

Second thought: We may have given up some of the energy

process developments too soon, esp. in the 80s and 90s.
 Did you know?
When the crude oil price was over $78/bbl, the
polyethylene (PE) price was about 79/lb. --- Nearly
Proportional to Each Other
When the crude oil price is around $60/bbl, the PE price
used to hover around 60/lb.
This trend is no longer valid in recent years. Petroleum product
market survives on higher gross margins.
The price for plastic goods changes closely following the
crude oil price. --- Oil crisis significantly affects the
materials market as well.
Increase in plastics consumption also contributes to the
oil shortage - non-petroleum sourced polymers, such as
biopolymers, need to be developed and promoted.
 Fluctuating

No Growth
Steady Growth

1. Energy Consumption is balanced by energy production.

2. Increase in energy consumption is closely related to GDP increase.
3. The consumption history repeated, but with shorter time intervals.
4. Trouble signs were there many times.
World Crude Oil Production (in Million Barrels/day)
Trouble signs were there: A, B, C, and D.
Million bbl per day
75 C
A World D

50

Non-OPEC

B
25
OPEC

Persian Gulf Nations

0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Source: U.S. DOE, Energy Information Administration (EIA)

 World Petroleum Production, MMbbl/day
94

93

92

91

90

89

88

87

86

85
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
 Distribution of
Nation Reserve (B barrels)
Major Petroleum Reserves
Saudi Arabia 262
Canada* 179*
Iran 126
Iraq 115
ChinaMexico
Kuwait 99 U.S.A.22 18 15 Qatar
16
U.A.E. 98 Nigeria 25
Libya 36 262 Saudi
Venezuela 78 60
Russia Arabia
Russia 60
Libya 36
Venezuela 78
Nigeria 25
Canada
U.S. 22** UAE 98
179
China 18
99
Mexico 16 Kuwait
Qatar 15 115 126 Iran
Iraq
World Total 1,265

Mostly available in forms of oil sands

 Natural Gas Reserves
Nation Reserves
(trillion cu.ft.)
Russia 1,680 Iraq Australia
Nigeria 110 29
Iran 940 159
Algeria 160
Qatar 917
U.S.A. 189
Saudi Arabia 231
UAE 212
United Arab 212 1,680
Emirates 231
Saudi Russia
U.S.** 189
Arabia
Algeria 160
Nigeria 159
917
Iraq 110
Qatar
Australia 29*
940
World Total 6,079
(*, downward adjustment made from 90 to 29,
Iran
based on Australian governments report in 2005)
** Shale gas reserves are not included.
Principal Uses of Natural Gas in the United States
Pipeline Fuel, 3.0
Oil & Gas Transportation
Industry Fuel, 0.1
Operation, 5.0

Commercial,
14.4
Industrial, 31.9

Electric Power ,
23.0

Residential, 22.7

2005
2011
 World Coal Reserves (Billion Short Tons)
Other Central &
Brazil South America
Non-OECD Asia
11.5 11.1 10.8 Canada
7.3 2.3 Others
OECD Europe 43.3
Africa 55.5 267.6 U.S.A.
Australia &
New Zealand 87.2

Non-OECD 100.1
Europe & Eurasia

173.1 Russia
101.9
India
126.2
China

World Total of 997.7 Billion tons. 164 years of current reserve-to-production ratio.
 World Coal Consumption [Million Short Tons]
Country 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003
United States 702.73 818.05 904.50 962.10 1,084.09 1,060.15 1,066.35 1,094.13
N. America 749.33 880.12 972.17 1,032.86 1,168.91 1,146.33 1,151.38 1,183.97
C. & S. America 19.40 28.36 26.54 32.94 37.10 35.47 34.22 35.07
Germany NA NA NA 297.52 269.81 278.15 280.12 273.05
Germany, East 297.20 351.51 315.20 NA NA NA NA NA
Germany, West 238.28 227.08 212.42 NA NA NA NA NA
U.K. 133.56 116.29 119.38 78.97 63.91 70.09 64.16 68.76
W. Europe 937.45 1,065.26 1,037.19 737.53 717.21 718.54 717.04 712.54
Former U.S.S.R. 751.33 778.87 848.47 NA NA NA NA NA
Poland 221.12 238.41 202.18 184.90 158.71 152.00 149.45 152.58
Russia NA NA NA 270.04 252.51 241.65 240.17 250.73
E. Europe & USSR 1,225.11 1,294.08 1,289.06 855.11 724.04 715.16 704.21 717.52
Middle East 1.08 4.81 5.68 9.28 13.84 14.84 15.96 15.55
South Africa 104.77 141.77 139.08 162.26 176.06 173.52 172.11 187.76
Africa 112.50 150.72 151.70 174.90 189.56 188.16 186.80 202.60
Australia 74.30 86.29 103.72 112.24 141.00 140.98 145.25 144.08
China 678.52 920.95 1,124.13 1,494.74 1,282.29 1,356.60 1,412.96 1,531.09
India 129.83 193.47 255.79 331.92 406.07 413.56 430.63 430.62
Japan 98.11 119.38 126.43 141.56 156.88 166.88 171.92 175.58
Asia & Oceania 1,081.61 1,474.41 1,786.93 2,273.06 2,231.89 2,346.18 2,440.53 2,572.08
World Total 4,126.48 4,897.76 5,269.29 5,115.68 5,082.54 5,164.68 5,250.14 5,439.33
Projected Energy Market Share of Coal (World)

Market 2002 2015 2025

Electric Power 39% 39% 38%
Generation
Industrial Sector 20% 22% 22%
Other Sectors 4% 3% 3%
Total Energy Market 24% 25% 24%
 FUTURE for LIQUID FUELS
Projected Liquid Fuels Demand for the U.S.
(By Sector)
Is this too
25 conservative or
History Projection
too optimistic?
(million barrels per day)

20
Demand

Biofuels
15
Transportation
Industrial
10
Electric Power
Residential and Commercial
5

0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Year Original Data Source: U.S. DOE, EIA

1. Transportation fuels will still be the driver even in 2030.

2. Assuming the steady demand of petroleum, the increased portion will be met by biofuels.
The success of biofuels technology is crucially important for the sustainable future.
ENERGY FUTURE is even more
complicated when considering the
petrochemical feedstocks are
predominantly coming from fossil
fuel sources. Most new material
development involved synthetic
and polymeric materials that are
originating from fossil fuel
sources, more specifically
petroleum and natural gas. It
would be a tremendous burden to
replace the infrastructure of
petrochemical industry of the
world. It may be even harder
than that for the energy industry.
 CHAPTER SUMMARY
1. The world is adopting energy-wise multiple solutions.
2. Regional strength and niche areas will play an important role.
3. Responsible practice of energy technologies will be mandated.
4. Environmental and ecological impacts must be considered.
5. New technologies will involve green processes and products.
6. Renewability and carbon neutrality will be selling buzzwords.
7. Fossil fuels will still hold grounds for at least the next 25 years.
8. Government subsidies in a variety of energy products are expected.
9. Energy related products will become highly tradable properties.
10. Breakthroughs in fundamental understanding of energy conversion
as well as revolutionary enabling technologies are expected.
11. Combined, multi-product, hybrid technologies are promising.
12. Cost-benefit-risk analysis has to be done and updated frequently.
13. Energy education will become an important area of national needs.
14. Opportunities are wide open for international collaboration.