The World of Energy

Chapter 2 World Energy Statistic

2.1. Global Energy Statistic

Ch. 2 - 1
Conversions
EJ =
~23 G tonnes of oil
~0.95 Quads (quadrillion Btu)
~32 TWyr
~165 M barrels of oil
~950 G cubic feet natural gas
~34 M tonnes coal

Ch. 2 - 2
 Whats Driving Energy?

Cause > Effect > Possible Ramifications

Emerging Competition for Higher Oil
Rising Consumption
Economies Resources Prices

Oil Companies Aging Infrastructure,

Problem even if Large Higher Oil
Declining Rig, Refinery &
Fields Discovered Prices
Growth Tanker Shortage

Declining Production Fixing Market or Higher Oil

OPEC
over last 3 QTs Production Problem Prices

Disruption of Supply
Higher Oil
Geopolitical Threats - Middle Reduced Spare Capacity
Prices
East, Nigeria

Declining Oil Higher Oil

Peak Oil Theory Permanent Lower Supply
Production Prices

Ch. 2 - 3
 World Energy Sources

Ch. 2 - 4
hydropower.org
 Sources of Energy

40

35 Oil
40
30
Natural Gas
Coal 23
25 22
20

15 Nuclear Power Wood an Waste

8 3
10
Hydroelectric
3.5
5 Renewables
0.5
0

Ch. 2 - 5
 Mean Global Energy Consumption, 1998

5 4.52

4
2.96
3 2.7
TW
2
1.21
0.828
1
0.286 0.286

0
Oil Gas Coal Hydro Biomass Renew Nuclear

Total: 12.8 TW U.S.: 3.3 TW (99 Quads)

Ch. 2 - 6
Evolution of the world energy mix
2005 2020
Consumption Consumption Gain (Loss)

(million
(Business as Usual Scenario) (million TOE) (million TOE) TOE)

TOTAL (sum of components below) 11,409 15,544 4,135

Oil 3,678 4,300 622

Natural gas 2,420 3,600 1,180

Coal (conventional) 2,778 3,193 415

Traditional biomass and waste 793 1,400 607

Nuclear fission 624 790 166

Hydro 634 750 116

Coal (liquefaction, gasification) 0 500 500

Other biomass, methanol, ethanol 370 388 18

Unconventional oil (tar sands and shale) 88 350 262

Solar (photovoltaics, thermal ) 11 100 89

Wind 8.5 100 92

Geothermal 4.8 50 45

Methane gas hydrates 0 22 22

Tides 0.1 1 1

Ch. 2 - 7
World Primary Energy Substitution
Conventional Energy Thinking Business As Usual

Ch. 2 - 8
World Primary Energy Substitution
The Age of Energy Gases
Global Energy Systems Transition

Ch. 2 - 9
 World Energy Reserves/Resources and Use
Class Type Est. Available (EJ) ~04 EJ/yr (490)

FOSSIL Oil (Conventional) 10,000 150

Oil (Unconventional) 35,000 3

Gas (Conv) 18,000 160

Gas (Unconv) 68,000 small

Coal (Conv) 100,000 100

Coal (Unconv) 32,000 0

NUCLEAR U235 ($130/kg) 5,800 25

U238 and Th >400,000 very small

Fusion ? 0

RENEWABLE Hydro 60/yr 25

Wind 600/yr ~0.5

Solar (PV and thermal) 1,600/yr ~0.2

Geothermal* 5,000/yr ~2

Biomass 250/yr ~50 (6)

Ocean ~10/yr .002

Sources: BP, World Energy Council, IEA, IAEA, USGS, Bonn Renewable Conf., 2000-2004, Johansson et al. , 2004, R. N. Schock, 2005

Ch. 2 - 10
World Fossil Fuel Reserve is Huge

Bad News: Unconventional Oil & Other Fossil Fuel Resource has
large Environmental & Economic Cost

Ch. 2 - 11
 Projected World Energy Supplies
Hydroelectric

New Technologies
1993
100
100 BILLION
BARRELS Solar, Wind
Geothermal
80
Billion World Energy Demand
Barrels Nuclear Electric
of Oil 60 Coal
Equivalent
perYear
(GBOE) Natural
40 Gas

Fossil Fuels
Decreasing
Crude Oil
20

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 3000
after Edwards, AAPG 8/97

Ch. 2 - 12
Unconventional Oil Supply Outlook

8,000

7,000
Other
6,000
GTL

5,000
Biofuels
1,000 b/d

4,000
Venezuelan Synthetic

3,000
Canadian Synthetic
2,000

1,000 Canadian Bitumen

0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Ch. 2 - 13
Source: R Skinner
 Regional Energy Usage
Region Consump- Population Annual
tion consump-
tion per
capita
EJ/year % of total millions GJ pc/year

Africa 9.8 3 731 13

Asia Pacific 89 27 3300 27
Mid-East 13 4 160 81
Europe 70 21 507 138
North 96 29 295 325
America
World 327 100 4500 67

Ch. 2 - 14
 Fuel for USA Electricity Generation in 2000

Renewables 2%

Oil 3%
Hydro 7%

Natural Gas 16%

Nuclear 20%
Coal 52%

Source: EIA

Ch. 2 - 15
 Sources of Energy in the US

Coal
22.7%
Petroleum
39.9%

Natural gas
25.0%

8.0%

Nuclear
Hydroelectric electric power
power and other
4.4%
Copyright Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved

Ch. 2 - 16
How Oil is used in China

A small share of oil is used

In private motor vehicles

Source: D. Fridley, LB Labs

Ch. 2 - 17
The Age of Oil
Production

Ref. Colin J. Campbell

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Anno Domini

Ch. 2 - 18
Fossil Fuel Age

Ch. 2 - 19
The World of Energy
Chapter 2 World Energy Statistic

2.2. Primary Energy Statistics

Ch. 2 - 20
World Total Primary Energy Supply in 1998

(9491 Mtoe)

**Other includes geothermal, solar, wind, heat, etc.

Ch. 2 - 21
World Primary Energy Consumption 1965 - 2004

Ch. 2 - 22
Forecast Growth of Primary Energy Consumption

Ch. 2 - 23
World Consumption of Primary Energy

Ch. 2 - 24
Regional Primary Energy Concumption Pattern

Ch. 2 - 25
World Primary Energy Shares

Ch. 2 - 26
Inequity in Energy Consumption

Ch. 2 - 27
Primary Energy Consumption by Economic Development

Ch. 2 - 28
Primary Energy Consumption per capita

Ch. 2 - 29
 Primary Energy Use Per Person
1 China
2 India
400 3 US
4 Indonesia
5 Brazil
350
6 Pakistan
27
7 Russia
3 8 Bangladesh
9 Nigeria
300 10 Japan
11 Mexico
12 Germany
13 Turkey
[GJ] Energy/Person

250
30
31
14 Ethiopia
15 Egypt
34 16 Iran
200 17 Thailand
7
22
18 18 France
12
10 19 UK
19 35 20 Italy
150
24 21 Dem Rep. Congo
20 22 South Korea
23 South Africa
100
Indonesia 23
25
32
24 Spain
29
16 25 Poland
26 26 Argentina
11
17 27 Canada
50
1 13 5 28 Morocco
4 15
9
33
29 Malaysia
14 6 2 28 30 Saudi Arabia
21 8
0 31 Australia
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 32 Hungary
GDP (PPP)/Person [1000$] 33 Nicaragua
34 Norway
35 Ireland
Ch. 2 - 30
 World Primary Energy Demand

18 000

16 000

14 000
Natural gas
12 000

10 000
Mtoe

8 000 Oil

6 000
Hydro
4 000 Coal
power
2 000 Other renewables Nuclear
0 power
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2004

Ch. 2 - 31
 World Primary Energy Demand
Mtoe (millions tonnes of oil equivalent)

18000

16000 Other renewables

14000 Biomass and waste
12000 Hydro

10000
Nuclear
Mtoe 8000
Gas
Oil
6000
Coal
4000

2000

0
1971 2002 2010 2020 2030

Year
Source: OECD, World Energy Outlook 2004

Ch. 2 - 32
Oil & Gas Remains the Primary Energy Resources

Ch. 2 - 33
The World of Energy
Chapter 2 World Energy Statistic

2.3. Oil Statistics

Ch. 2 - 34
Oil Consumption by the Human Race

(% of Total Energy)

Ch. 2 - 35
World Oil Production & Consumption

Ch. 2 - 36
Growing Gap Between Oil Discoveries & Consumption

Ch. 2 - 37
Oil Production Forecast

(Bakhtiari 2004)

Ch. 2 - 38
The World of Energy
Chapter 2 World Energy Statistic

2.4. Natural Gas Statistics

Ch. 2 - 39
World Gas Production & Consumption

Ch. 2 - 40
World Gas Reserve

Ch. 2 - 41
Utilization of Natural Gas

As percentage of
Primary Energy
Consumption in
2001:

36% in Thailand
35% in malaysia
18% in Indonesia
14% in Java

Ch. 2 - 42
 LNG HHV of Various LNG Exporter
1,400
1,375

1,350

1,300

1,250
Heat Content (Btu/cf)

1,200
1,160
1,150 1,141 1,134
1,132
1,122 1,118 1,116 1,114
1,110
1,100
1,082

1,050 1,041 Acceptable

1,011 USA
1,000 1,000
1,000 BTU
Content
950

900
)

ay
a

)
ria

t
ka
r
lia
a

an

ad
ei
i

a
ab

yp
ew

a
a
si
by

si
un

kd
at
ra

w
as
e
m

id
ay

ne

Eg
D

rz
Li

ig
Q

or
st

in
Br

ki
O

Al
al
u

do

(A

N
(S
Au

Tr
Ab

In

ria

ria
ge

ge
Al

Al

Source: Conversion Gas Imports, LLC Estimates

Ch. 2 - 43
Characteristics of LNGs currently produced

Ch. 2 - 44
The World of Energy
Chapter 2 World Energy Statistic

2.4 Renewables Energy Statistic

Ch. 2 - 45
Estimated Nonrenewable Energy Resources Worldwide

Fossil Fuels

Ch. 2 - 46
Energy From Renewables, 1998

0.1

0.01
TW

0.001

0.0001

10-5
Elect Heat EtOH Wind Solar Solar Low T Hydro Geoth Marine
PV Th. Sol Ht
Biomass

Ch. 2 - 47
Renewables size does matter

Ch. 2 - 48
Outlook for Canadas Oil Sands

3,500

3,000

2,500
1,000 b/d

2,000

1,500 Bitumen

1,000

Synthetic Crude
500

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Ch. 2 - 49
Source: R Skinner
The World of Energy
Chapter 2 World Energy Statistic

2.5. Electrical Energy Statistic

Ch. 2 - 50
Generation of Electricity

Ch. 2 - 51
World Electricity Generation Forecast

Ch. 2 - 52
Annual Per Capita Electricity Use (kWh)

Source: S. Benka, Physics Today, April, 2002

Ch. 2 - 53
The World of Energy
Chapter 2 World Energy Statistic

2.6. Energy Economics & Competition

Ch. 2 - 54
E&D Costs of Oil and Gas

11.0 10.6
High Cost Nature of Asian Energy
10.0
(Average 1980-2001)
9.0 8.2 World Average:
8.0 7.3 6.2 USD per BOE
7.1
2001 USD per BOE

7.0 6.4
6.0 5.5
5.0 4.8
5.0 4.3
4.0 3.5

3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Asia Canada USA USA USA Total FSU Latin Europe Africa Middle East
Onshore Offshore America

Source: APERC Analysis (2003), Original Data from EIA several editions of Performance Profiles of Major Energy Producers

Ch. 2 - 55
Production Cost of Electricity
(in the U.S. in 2002)
25-50

25

20

15

10 6-8 5-7
6-7
2.3-5.0
1-4

0
Coal Gas Oil Wind Nuclear Solar

Ch. 2 - 56
 Energy Costs
$0.05/kW-hr
14
12
10

Europe
8
$/GJ
6

Brazil
4
2
0
Coal Oil Biomass Elect

Ch. 2 - 57
Price of Hydrocarbon/GigaJoule - 2003

Ch. 2 - 58
World Natural Gas Costs

US$/mmBtu

Russia
$0.80
W. Europe
$3.70 Ukraine
U. S. $1.50
$5.00 China
$4.00-5.00
N.
Trinidad Africa
$1.60 $0.40
Middle East
Venezuela
$0.60
$0.70
Indonesia
$1.20

Argentina
$1.25

Ch. 2 - 59
 Transport Costs of Fossil Fuels

After Hatamian (1998) and Verein deutscher Kohleimporteure: Annual Report 1998

2nd ASPO workshop, Paris, May 26/27 converted to US$/toe

Ch. 2 - 60
New Electricity Infrastructure Consideration

Ch. 2 - 61
 The past is the key to the present

1986 2002: Hardening around a $16/bbl Investment Hurdle Price

60
CHEVRON TEXACO UNOCAL
SHELL - Enterprise
50
CONOCO PHILLIPS
CHEVRON TEXACO
$/bbl 40
TOTAL FINA ELF
BP - AMOCO - ARCO
TOTAL FINA
30
EXXON- Mobil
BP - AMOCO

20

10

ARCO - UTPH Amerada Hess - Triton

Nippon - Mitsubishi Repsol - YPF
0
Ju 6

Ju 7

Ju 8

Ju 9

Ju 0

Ju 1

Ju 2

Ju 3

Ju 4

Ju 5

Ju 6

Ju 7

Ju 8

Ju 9

Ju 0

Ju 1

Ju 2

Ju 3

Ju 4

Ju 5
Ja 6

Ja 7

Ja 8

Ja 9

Ja 0

Ja 1

Ja 2

Ja 3

Ja 4

Ja 5

Ja 6

Ja 7

Ja 8

Ja 9

Ja 0

Ja 1

Ja 2

Ja 3

Ja 4

5
8

0
l-8

l-8

l-8

l-8

l-9

l-9

l-9

l-9

l-9

l-9

l-9

l-9

l-9

l-9

l-0

l-0

l-0

l-0

l-0

l-0
n-

n-

n-

n-

n-

n-

n-

n-

n-

n-

n-

n-

n-

n-

n-

n-

n-

n-

n-

n-
Ja

Refinery acquisition price from US DOE/EIA data

Ch. 2 - 62
Renewable Energy Cost Trends

Ch. 2 - 63
Energy Technology Learning Curves

Renewables is not an Exception

Ch. 2 - 64
 Specific Investment of Power Technologies
Spec. Invest. $/kW 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Wind 1550 1280 950 930 920 900
Photovoltaics 5500 2830 1590 1250 1010 910
Geothermal 11714 4530 3249 2791 2700 2654
Biomass 2500 2000 1700 1670 1660 1650
10000 CSP Plants 3098 3388 4662 4332 4185 4134
Wave / Tidal 3000 2500 2250 2100 2050 2000
Hydropower 1800 1800 1800 1800 1800 1800
9000 Oil / Gas 550 540 530 520 510 500
Coal 1150 1150 1150 1150 1150 1150

8000
Specific Investment [$/kW]

Wind
7000 Photovoltaics
6000 Geothermal
increased solar share Biomass
5000 CSP Plants
Wave / Tidal
4000
Hydropower
3000 Oil / Gas
Coal
2000

1000

0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Ch. 2 - 65
Electricity Cost of Power Technologies
LEC New Plants c/kWh 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Wind 6.2 5.2 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6
Photovoltaics 31.9 14.7 7.4 5.8 4.6 4.2
Discount Rate 5 % Geothermal 19.1 7.4 5.3 4.5 4.4 4.3
Biomass 7.6 6.2 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2
2000-$ CSP Plants 7.9 7.1 5.2 4.5 4.1 4.0
Wave / Tidal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hydropower 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3
Oil / Gas 5.4 5.8 6.2 6.7 7.2 7.8
Coal Egypt 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.5

30
Photovoltaics
Electricity Cost of New Plants

25 Wind
Wave / Tidal
20
Biomass
[c/kWh]

15 Geothermal
Hydropower
10
CSP Plants
5 Oil / Gas
Coal
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year

Ch. 2 - 66
The World of Energy
Chapter 2 World Energy Statistic

2.7. Energy Resources & Reserves

Ch. 2 - 67
Conventional Oil Resource

~6-8 Trillion barrels of oil in place

Remaining
Recoverable
Produced

Enhanced
Oil Recovery
Target

Improved recovery technologies needed

Source: IEA World Energy 2004

Ch. 2 - 68
Non-Conventional Oil Resource

~7 Trillion barrels of oil in place

Tar Sands
Oil Shales & Bitumen
38% 39%

Extra
Heavy Oil
23%

Cost-effective extraction technologies needed

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2004

Ch. 2 - 69
 Global Resources, Conventional and Unconventional CERA Projection

Explor-
OPEC Other Enhanced Oil
Cumulative Deep- Extra ation
Middle Conventi Arctic Oil Shale Totals
Production water Heavy Potentia
East onal Recovery Extract
l

Rest
of
813 662 378 50 110 510 277 200 660 3,660
world

U.S.A 234 19 8 5 76 500 83 925

Cana
31 7 3 3 6 167 4 15 236
da

Total 1,078 662 404 61 118 592 444 704 758 4,821

Ch. 2 - 70
 Energy Reserves and Resources

200000

150000

(Exa)J 100000
Unconv
Conv
50000

0
Rsv=Reserves Oil Oil Gas Gas Coal Coal
Res=Resources
Rsv Res Rsv Res Rsv Res

Reserves/(1998 Consumption/yr) Resource Base/(1998 Consumption/yr)

Oil 40-78 51-151

Gas 68-176 207-590
Coal 224 2160
Ch. 2 - 71
 World Proven Oil and Gas Reserves

Oil
Non-MENA
39%

Saudi
Arabia
20%
Natural gas

Other
MENA Other non-
14% Kuwait Iran Iraq MENA
8% Russia
10% 9% 28%
27%

Other MENA Iran

8% UAE 16%
Saudi
8% Qatar
Arabia
14%
4%

MENA share of global oil and gas reserves is much higher than its share of current production, suggesting
strong potential for growth

Ch. 2 - 72
 World Energy Outlook

300 ENERGY DEMAND 200 OIL & GAS SUPPLY

250
150 New
Other
200

MOEB/D
MOEB/D

Coal
150 100
Gas
100
50
50 Oil Actual Existing
0 0
1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010

Oil and natural gas supply 60% of world energy demand

About 50% of 2010 supply will come from new production

Balanced approach required to meet the supply challenge

Ch. 2 - 73
 Proven World Oil Reserves
1.188.000 million barrels, R/P ratio ~40 years

40
72
16 Kazakhstan
61 Europe
FSR
North America
734
41

112 Asia Pacific Region

101

South and Central Africa

Middle East
America

1000 Million bbl

Data: BP Statistical Review 2005

Ch. 2 - 74
 World Gas Reserves
Proven 180 Trillion m3, R/P ratio ~66 years

48
73
5
7 Europe
Russia
North America

Middle East 14
14 Asia Pacific Region
7
Africa
South and Central
America

1000 Billion m3

Data: BP Statistical Review 2005

Ch. 2 - 75
 EUR of Conventional Gas Global Overview

Reg. Verteilung

2nd ASPO workshop, Paris, May 26/27

Ch. 2 - 76
 Oil Reserves Revisions
YEAR Abu Dubai Iran Iraq Kuwait Neutral Saudi Venez-
Dhabi zone Arabia uela
1982 31 1 57 30 65 6 165 20
1983 31 1 55 41 64 6 162 21
1984 30 1 51 43 64 6 166 25
1985 31 1 48 44 90 5 169 26
1986 30 1 48 44 90 5 169 26
1987 31 1 49 47 92 5 167 25
1988 92 4 93 100 92 5 167 56
1989 92 4 93 100 92 5 170 58
1990 92 4 93 100 92 5 257 59
1991 92 4 93 100 94 5 257 59
1992 92 4 93 100 94 5 258 63
1993 92 4 93 100 94 5 258 64
1994 92 4 89 100 94 5 259 64
1995 92 4 88 100 94 5 259 65
1996 92 4 93 112 94 5 259 65
1997 92 4 93 112 94 5 259 72

Ch. 2 - 77
Annual Production to be replaced by Majors

Mb/year % increases versus 1990

4,500
MMbll
4,000 COP 135% 350

3,500 TOTAL 45% 620

CPH

3,000 CTX 84% 630

Total

2,500
SHELL
CTX
24% 825
2,000
Shell
1,500 BP
103% 900
BP
1,000
EXM
500
XOM 61% 940

0
1986 1990 2000 2004

Ch. 2 - 78
Company Annual Reports
The World of Energy
Chapter 2 World Energy Statistic

2.8. Major Oil & Gas Discovery

Ch. 2 - 79
Worlds Largest Oil Fields, 2005

Oil Field Output % of Status

(MBD) national
output
Ghawar (Saudi 4.5 40% Possibly
Arabia) declining

Cantarell 2.0 60% Declining

(Mexico)

Burgan (Kuwait) 1.7 68% Possibly

declining

DaQing (China) 1.0 40% Possibly

declining

Ch. 2 - 80
Global Oil Discovery

Ch. 2 - 81
Large New Oil & Gas Fields Discovery after 1996

New Fields with Oil > 200 MMBO, Gas > 1,200 BSCF
6406/02-07 6506/06-01 Medyn-more
Kamennomysskoye Severnoye
>
025/07-05
Halfdan Kashagan Kela 2
Corrib Khvalynskaya
020/06-03 (Buzzard) Shah-Deniz
ROD-BSFN-BRSE Sulige Nanpu 35-2
Elephant (NC174-F) ScarabHa'py Changuleh 2Tek-Tek Penglai 19-3
Tieshanpo
Homa 1 Sawan > Kaijiang
Saffron
Bibiyana 1
Day Zamzama
Sihil (Cantarell)
Chinguetti 1
Sparrow 1 Parang 1 Mari B1 Ledong 8-1

BongaErha Niban 2 Samudra 1 R

Bumi Gula 1
Shaden 1 Gendalo
Corocoro 1X Red Mango 1 Baobab 1 Ceiba Arthit 15-1X T3 2 Senoro Vorwata
Wadayhi 1
Akpo 1
Kuito Thar Jath 1 Seno West
Dalia
Pagoreni 1X (75-29-1X) Abadi 1st
Candamo 1 Rosa 1 Saxi 1 Banyu Urip Io 1
Margarita ASSESSED USGS PROVINCES OIL AND GAS FIELDS
Itau 1A CODED BY UNDISCOVERED DISCOVERED AFTER 1/1/1996
San Pedrito x-1 PETROLEUM (mmboe)
Sabalo X-1 100 - 1000 MMBO Jansz 1 Dinichthys 1
Roncador < 6000
Chango Norte 6000 - 20000 > 1000 MMBO
Valle Morado
20000 - 40000 Callirhoe 1
1 - 5 TCF Geryon 1
40000 - 100000
100000 - 200000 > 5 TCF

Ch. 2 - 82
 Giants Oil Fields Discovery
GLOBAL: Giant fields discovery
70
US & Kirkuk ~100 giant fields
60 Burgan & contained approx 65% of
Gachsaran
Ghawar & cumulative production
Romashkino plus remaining reserves
Oil discovered (bn bbls)

50

40
Global onshore
30
Shallow water
offshore Deepwater, Kashagan
and Azagedan
20

10

0
pre 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
www.energyfiles.com

Ch. 2 - 83
Oil &Gas Discovery Peaked Decades Ago

x x # Discoveries
Total Discovered Resources to End-2004
2,500
500 North Field

450 Marun
Gas x 2,000
Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent

400 Liquids Urengay x x

350 Samotlor x
300 x
Astrakhan x 1,500
Ghawar
250 x
Burgan
200 x South Pars 1,000
Kashagan
150
Gachsaran
100
50
0
Pre-1901
01 - 05
06 - 10
11 - 15
16 - 20
21 - 25
26 - 30
31 - 35
36 - 40
41 - 45
46 - 50
51 - 55
56 - 60
61 - 65
66 - 70
71 - 75
76 - 80
81 - 85
86 - 90
91 - 95
96 - 2000
2001 - 2004
(excludes USA and Canada)
Source: IHS

Ch. 2 - 84
Trend in Oil & Gas Wells Drilling and Success Ratio

EIA 2001

Ch. 2 - 85
Trends in Oil Finding & Developing Cost

3 Years Moving Average, EIA 2001

Ch. 2 - 86
The World of Energy
Chapter 2 World Energy Statistic

2.9. Geopolitics of Energy

Ch. 2 - 87
Access to Oil Reserves
1,032 billion barrels
Iraq
10%
National
companies only
(Saudi Arabia,
Kuwait, Mexico)
Concession
35%
21%

Production Limited access -

sharing National
12% companies
22%

Access to much of the worlds remaining oil reserves is restricted

Source: IEA, WEO 2004

Ch. 2 - 88
 Conventional Oil Endowment of the World - 2000

4 1
5
2
Conventional Oil Endowment in Billions of Barrels
3
Less than 1 BBO
1 - 20 BBO 8
20 - 40 BBO
40 - 80 BBO
80 - 160 BBO
Greater than 160 BBO 7
1 Former Soviet Union
6
2 Middle East and North Africa
3 Asia Pacific
4 Europe
5 North America
6 Central and South America
7 Sub-Saharan Africa and Antarctica
8 South Asia

Ch. 2 - 89
 Conventional Natural Gas Endowment of the World 2000

4 1
5
Conventional Natural Gas Endowment 2
in Trillions of Cubic Feet
3
Less than 6 TCF
6 - 120 TCF
8
120 - 240 TCF
240 - 480 TCF
480 - 960 TCF
Greater than 960 TCF 7
6
1 Former Soviet Union
2 Middle East and North Africa
3 Asia Pacific
4 Europe
5 North America
6 Central and South America
7 Sub-Saharan Africa and Antarctica
8 South Asia

Ch. 2 - 90
 Proven Natural Gas Reserves End 2003

Norway 87 Tcf

Russian Federation
1,659 Tcf
Canada 59 Tcf

China 64 Tcf
Other FSU 322 Tcf
USA 185 Tcf
Algeria 160 Tcf Iraq 110 Tcf
Iran 942 Tcf
Trinidad 26 Tcf
Venezuela 147 Tcf Malaysia 85 Tcf
Nigeria 176 Tcf
Indonesia 90 Tcf
Saudi Arabia
236 Tcf Qatar 910 Tcf Australia 90 Tcf
UAE 214 Tcf

Total World Proven Natural Gas Reserves = 6,205 Tcf

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2004

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 EUR Conventional Gas: Prominent Countries

2nd ASPO workshop, Paris, May 26/27

Ch. 2 - 92
 Geopolitical Distribution of Conventional Gas Reserves

Strat. Ellipse

2nd ASPO workshop, Paris, May 26/27

Ch. 2 - 93
Countries that have Peaked

Ch. 2 - 94
Access to the World Oil

Countries still closed Countries open since 1993

Ch. 2 - 95