Probability theory and its applications:

Given a sample space S = {O1, O2, . . . , Ok}, the

probabilities assigned to the outcomes must satisfy two

requirements:
The probability of any outcome must lie between 0

and 1; that is

0 P(Oi) 1, for each i

The sum of the probabilities of all the

outcomes in a sample space must be equal

1. That is
k

P(Oi ) = P(O1) + P(O2) + P(Ok) = 1

i=1

Intersection of Events A and B:

The intersection of events A and B is the

event that occurs when both A and B occur.

It is denoted as A and B or A B
The joint probability of any two independent

events A and B is P(A B) = P(A)P(B)

If events A and B are mutually exclusive,

then their joint probability is P(A B) = 0

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P(A B) = P(B A)
Union of Events A and B:
The union of events A and B is the event that

occurs when either A and B or both occur. It is

denoted as A or B or A B
The probability that event A, or event B, or both

occur is

P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B)

The probability of the union of two mutually

exclusive events A and B is P(A B) = P(A) +

P(B)
Complement rule: P(Ac) or P( A ) = 1 P(A), for
any event A.

Conditional Probability:
The probability of event A given event B is
P( A B) P ( A ) P( B)
P(A B) = P(B) = P (B)

The probability of event B given event A is

P(B A) P ( B ) P( A)
P(B A) = P( A) = P (B)

Two events A and B are said to be

independent if
P(A B) = P(A) or P(B A) = P(B)

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 For example, let A and B be independent events

with the corresponding probabilities 0.7, and 0.8:

P(A B) = P(A)P(B) = 0.7 x 0.8 = 0.56
P( A ) = 1 P(A) = 1 0.7 = 0.3
P( B ) = 1 P(B) = 1 0.8 = 0.2
P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B)= 0.7 + 0.8

(0.7 x 0.8) = 0.94

P( A B) P ( A ) P(B) 0.7 x 0.8
P(A B) = P( B) = P (B) = 0.8

= 0.7
Or P(A B) = P(A)=0.7
P( B A) P ( B ) P( A) 0.8 x 0.7
P(B A) = P( A) = P (B) = 0.7

= 0.8
Or P(B A) = P(B)= 0.8
P( A B) P ( A ) P(B)
B
P(A )= P(B) = P (B) =

0.7 x 0.2
0.2 = 0.7

Or P(A B ) = P(A)=0.7
P( A B) P ( A ) P( B) 0.3 x 0.8
P( A B) = P( B) = P (B) = 0.8

= 0.3
Or P( A B)=p( A )=0.3

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 P( A B) P ( A ) P( B)
P( A B ) = P(B) = P (B) =

0.3 x 0.2
0.2 = 0.3
For example, let A and B be mutually exclusive

events with the corresponding probabilities 0.2,

and 0.5
P(A B) = 0.0
P( A ) = 1 P(A) = 1 0.2 = 0.8
P( B ) = 1 P(B) = 1 0.5 = 0.5
P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B)= 0.2 + 0.5

0.0 = 0.7

Joint Probability:
For example, by referring to the following table:
Other Events
Events M N O Total
X 2 1 3 6
Y 1 2 1 4
Total 3 3 4 10

P(X) = 6/10
P(Y) = 4/10
P(O) = 4/10
2
P( X M ) 10
P(XM) = P(M ) = 3 = 2/3
10

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 1
P( M Y ) 10
P(MY) = P(Y ) = 4 = 1/4
10
1
PO Y 10
P(OY) = = 4 = 1/4
P(Y )
10
1
PN X 10
P(NX) = = 6 = 1/6
P( X)
10

P(N) = 3/10

Example :The following table shown the casualties by accidents type:

Injury Type
Accident Type A1 A2 A3
Fatality Slight Injury Sever Injury Total
Collision 304 9669 1606 11579
C1
Pedestrian 218 3248 892 4358
C2
Turnover 148 1522 466 2136
C3
670 14439 2964 18073
Total

Find the following probabilities:

1) P (A1 C2) 2) p (A3 C2) 3) p (A2) 4) p (C1)

The mean and the variance of discrete random

variables:

n
x i 1
xip( xi)
= E(xi) =
E ( xi2 ) ( E ( xi)) 2
Variance (S )= 2

n
i 1
xi2 . p ( xi) ( E ( xi)) 2
=
SD = S2

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 A) Let the probability distribution is given by:

3 2 1- Xi

0.3 0.2 0.5 P(Xi)

:Compute the

Mean 2) Standard Deviation (1

:Solution

xi P(xi) Xi.p(xi) Xi2.p(xi)

1- 0.5 0.5- 0.5
2 0.2 0.4 0.8
3 0.3 0.9 2.7
Total 1 0.8 4

3
i 1
xi. p ( xi) 0.8
1) Mean = E(Xi) =
S 2 i xi2 p ( xi) ( E ( xi)) 2 4 (0.8) 2 3.36
n

2)

S .D 3.36 1.83

Probability Distributions

Binomial Distribution:
The binomial experiment consists of a fixed

number of trials. We represent the number of trials

by n.

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 Each trial has two possible outcomes. We label one

outcome a success, and the other a failure.

The probability of success is p. The probability of

failure is
q(=1 p)
0p1
0q1
and p + q = 1.
The trials are independent, which means that the

outcome of one trial does not affect the outcomes

of any other trials.

The probability of x successes in a binomial

experiment with n trials, probability of success p, and

probability of failure q is:

n p x q nx n! x n x
x p q
P(x) = = x ! ( nx ) !

n
The combination of n taken x = x =

n!
n
x ! ( nx ) ! , using the calculator ,nCr x ,

note that:
n
n = 1

n
0 = 1

0!
= 1

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 1! = 1
For example, 5! = 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 120

In binomial distribution:
x = np
x
Variance (S2) = q= npq
SD = S 2

CV =
SD
x = q
x

For example, a survey found that 1 out of 5 says that

she or he visited a doctor in any given month. If 10

people are selected at random, find the probability that

3 of them had visited a doctor last month?

p = 1/5 = 0.2, q = 1 p = 0.8,
n = 10, x=3
10 p 3 q 103 10! 3 103
p q
P(3) = 3 = 3 ! ( 103 ) ! =

10 ! 3 7
(0.2) (0.8)
3 !(7 )!

= 0.2

Example : Suppose that X is a random variable distributed a binomial

distribution with a p=0.25 and n=6

Find the following probabilities:

x
1) P ( = 2)

x
2) p ( 1)

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 x 4
3) p(( )

x
4) P ( = 0)

x
5) P ( = 6)

6) Find the
I) mean
II) variance
III) Standard Deviation
IV) Coefficient of variation