Providing Examples (of BOTH events and individuals) explain

the degree to which the personality and mental state of

decision-makers impose themselves onto the foreign policy

of states and how is this explained by our study of Foreign

Policy

Word Count: 3,071

Ryan Baldry
INR 6415: Foreign Policy Analysis
Dr. James D. Boys
5th November 2013
INR 6415 Major Essay Ryan Baldry

The aim of this essay is to analyse three individuals who have all

shaped foreign policy in their own, very distinct ways; Tony Blair,

Margaret Thatcher and Henry Kissinger. Firstly, this paper will

discuss the state of mind of Tony Blair throughout his premiership

and just before he won leadership of the Labour Party. As well as

this, the concept of Blairs Messianic complex will also be analysed

to discover the degree to which that affected any, if not all, of his

foreign policy decisions. Secondly, this paper will discuss the way in

which Margaret Thatchers unique position affected her decisions

with specific focus on the Falklands invasion and her motives for not

allowing the island to fall. Thirdly, this paper will discuss the ways in

which Henry Kissinger carried out his role as NSA advisor, and later

Secretary of State, under the Nixon administration. There will be a

specific analysis of Kissingers thought process and they ways in

which this would have had an impact on the way in which he

worked. The question of whether Kissinger was carrying out US

foreign policy or a version of his own will also be discussed. Finally,

this essay will conclude with an analysis of how there are a number

of different factors which can all have a substantial impact upon an

individual, regardless of how insignificant they may at first appear.

To properly be able to understand the topic of foreign policy decision

making, it is crucial that we are first able to understand the

individual at the centre of that process. It has been suggested by

some theorists that the state is the base level of study in foreign

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policy1. However, we know this to not be the case. The key question

that we must ask within Foreign Policy Analysis is who, what, when

and why? Different individuals will all make different decisions from

one another due to a number of different factors. These can vary

from their upbringing, past careers and experiences, their advisors

and even the layout of the room that the decision is being made in2.

For an example, it is important to look at the time in which the event

occurs, who is making the decision and why that particular decision

had to be made. By answering each of these questions, it will be

possible to gain a greater understanding of how foreign policy

decisions are made. This essay will also utilise methods of

psychological analysis to discuss the state of mind of decision

makers in order to find if there foreign policy decisions were, if at all,

affected by their state of mind. However, the main task of this essay

is to analyse the state of mind of key figures within foreign policy

such as Prime Ministers of the United Kingdom.

As previously mentioned, the first individual whom this paper will be

discussing is Tony Blair, British Prime Minister from 1997 until his

resignation in 20073. Blair proves to be an interesting case study for

a number of reasons. Firstly, Blairs chance at the leadership

1 Valerie M. Hudson, Foreign Policy Analysis: Classic and

Contemporary Theory, Plymouth: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers
Inc., 2007, 3
2 Hudson, Foreign Policy Analysis: Classic and Contemporary
Theory, 5
3Robert J. Parker, British Prime Ministers, Gloucester: Amberly, 2013,
119

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position within Her Majestys Opposition came about suddenly with

the unexpected death of the former party leader, John Smith4.

However, despite the sudden change in leadership, Tony Blair was

able to lead the party to win Labour a landslide victory in 1997. It is

possible to conclude that from the speed at which Blair claimed the

Party Leadership, that he would be a very spontaneous and

reactionary leader with regards to his foreign policy decision-

making. One such example of this could be seen to be Blairs

decision to invade Iraq. One trait that has been identified in Blair,

found by Dyson, is that of a [n]eed for power5. Dyson arrives at this

conclusion by finding that there is a high percentage of verbs used

by Blair in public speeches that reflect actions of attack, advise

[and] influence the behaviour of others6. This point is reflected by

Christopher Hill who notes that Tony Blair confronted the

government on foreign policy decisions whilst still in opposition, an

area that had been untouched by Labour in their entire time as

opposing party7. It could then be argued that it was these

personality traits that lead Tony Blair to the decision to assist the

Americans in the campaign against Saddam Hussein in Iraq; mainly,

due to Blair having a tendency to want to influence the decisions of

4 Alastair Campbell. The Blair Years: Extracts from the Alastair

Campbell Diaries, London: Arrow Books, 2008, xxi
5Stephen Benedict Dyson, Personality and Foreign Policy: Tony
Blairs Iraq Decisions, Foreign Policy Analysis, Vol. 2, 2006, 292
6 Dyson, Personality and Foreign Policy: Tony Blairs Iraq Decisions,
292
7Christopher Hill, Foreign Policy in Anthony Seldon (ed.), The Blair
Effect: The Blair Government 1997 2001, London: Little, Brown and
Company, 2001, 332

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others; there was a key focus on the formation of a coalition around

the invasion, and secondly due to his sense of superiority over

others.

These personality traits prove to be crucial for a number of reasons.

Firstly, it is only with this key trait that Blair would have made the

decisions to enter Iraq in the way he did. Due to his need for power

over others and his sense of superiority, he was able to convince

parliament that a war in Iraq was essential and that by stating the

crisis situation was worse than [being] told to do something by the

Americans. I believe in it8. This suggests that Blair believed himself

to be right above all those in Europe who were sceptical of the

evidence supporting intervention by an allied force. In this way,

much like he did when attempting to gain the leadership of the

party, Blair leapt into a decision, and as we now know, did not have

all of the facts and evidence available to him at the time. The

Bounded Rationality Model also demonstrates support for this

particular case study. For example, the theory suggests that

decision-making depends upon emotional assessment9. Hudson

also continues to state that emotion is one of the most effective

ways by which humans can change goal emphasis. This relates

directly back to Tony Blair because he used emotion as reason for

intervention when he stated that Saddam Hussein must be removed

8 Dyson, Personality and Foreign Policy: Tony Blairs Iraq Decisions,

290
9Hudson, Foreign Policy Analysis: Classic and Contemporary Theory,
45

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from power because he is very close to some appalling weapons of

mass destruction10.

It is through this analysis that it becomes clear that if there had

been another leader of the government in place at the time, instead

of Tony Blair, that there will have been a very different outcome to

the Iraq conflict in terms of British Interests. This is because it is

very unlikely that there would have been another individual with the

same drive and desire for power that Blair possessed.This

demonstrates that the individual is a key actor within the study of

foreign policy and cannot be overlooked or disregarded as

unimportant to the field of IR.

To continue this analysis of the extent to which the individual is

important in FPA, this paper will discuss the state of mind of another

British Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher, and the ways in which she

imposed herself upon British Foreign Policy. As the first female PM11,

there were a number of factors that would have affected Thatcher

that wouldnt have affected the state of mind of previous male

Prime Ministers. For example, one such issue would have been the

pressure from the traditional men in grey suits12 in Whitehall who

believed that a woman was incapable of being the Prime Minister of

10 Dyson, Personality and Foreign Policy: Tony Blairs Iraq

Decisions, 290
11Robert J. Parker, British Prime Ministers, Gloucester: Amberly,
2013, 115
12 Alan Watkins, A Conservative Coup: The Fall of Margaret
Thatcher, London: Gerald Duckworth & Co Ltd, 1992, p 6-7

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the United Kingdom and that politics was a males career. This

would have had the effect of focusing Margaret Thatcher on the task

of proving politicians wrong by being as successful as possible in the

time which she resided in Downing Street. One of the most famous

examples of Thatchers determination to achieve this task was

during the Falklands invasion of 1982. This was an interesting event

at the time for a number of reasons. Firstly, it was nearing the next

general election and Margaret Thatcher was very unpopular in a

number of polls that had been taken at the time, scoring only 28%

in 1981 but reaching her peak after the Falklands war in 1983,

scoring 62%13. However, the integrity of her state of mind was also

tested beforehand withhe decision to cut the number of Royal Navy

sailors by 8,000 to 10,00014before the invasion of the Falklands by

the Argentinians had occurred. This meant that even against the

opposition of members of her cabinet and defence officials,

Thatcher had to remain determined in terms of the scale of the plan

she intended to implement in response to the invasion.In a memo

from the Foreign and Commonwealth Office at the time to the

Ministry of Defence, it was stated that:

any reduction would be interpreted by both the islanders

and the Argentines as a reduction in our commitment to the

13 Ipsos MORI, Conservative Leader Image, Ipsos MORI Trends,

(11/9/2013), <http://www.ipsos-
mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/poll.aspx?
oItemID=58&view=wide> [Accessed: 1 November 2013]
14House of Commons Hansard, 25 June 1981, columns 387-394
Defence Programme

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Islanders and in our willingness to defend them, and would

attract strong criticism from supporters of the islanders in the

United Kingdom15.

This was important because it demonstrates the opposition that

Margaret Thatcher was up against in terms of domestic issues that

would in turn have a great impact upon her foreign policy. Hudson

confirms this by suggesting that the nature of the regime itself

must be made a central part of any analysis of the domestic roots of

foreign policy16. By proving to the key individuals within the

government, such as the First Seal Lord of the Royal Navy, that a

defensive operation could take place despite the cuts that she had

initiated. This is an interesting case of cognitive dissonance that is

demonstrated by Margaret Thatcher throughout the crisis. Through

her perseverance that a military campaign was still feasible, despite

the cuts she was implementing to the armed forces, is evidence of

the ways in which Thatcher was capable of not allowing the

criticisms from close colleagues and the public, to affect her

decisions and state of mind. Overall, with the combination of the

personality traits discussed previously, it is apparent how Margaret

Thatchers personality and state of mind were influential to a very

15 The National Archives, Catalogue: prem/19/416, Foreign and

Commonwealth Office, Defence Programme in The Defence Budget,
1983.
16 Hudson, Foreign Policy Analysis: Classic and Contemporary
Theory, 126

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high extent because of the ways in which her thinking and physical

determination had an impact upon her foreign policy decisions.

Finally, another key another key actor within the field of Foreign

Policy Analysis whom this paper will discuss is Henry Kissinger. As

David Rothkopf notes, [he] may have actually left the greatest

legacy in the degree to which he influences the attitudesof those

around him17. It is for this reason that Kissinger proves to be of

great interest in the study of foreign policy analysis. His state of

mind and personal experiences can be seen to of had a substantial

influence over the ways in which Kissinger carried out the foreign

policy of the United States, or even questionably, his own idea of

foreign policy. In Foreign Policy Analysis, the structure in which an

individual makes the decision is also crucial18, as Kissinger himself

noted before being appointed to the position of National Security

Advisor. This is ironic because once in this role, [Kissinger] and

Nixon would repeatedly make decisions based on their intuition,

outside the formal structure of decision making19. This is one

important insight into the state of mind which Kissinger possessed

throughout his time as Nixons National Security Advisor and then

also in his role as Secretary of State. In order to assess this mind set

17David Rothkopf, Running the World, New York: PublicAffairs, 2006,

19
18 Hudson, Foreign Policy Analysis: Classic and Contemporary
Theory, 13
19Asaf Siniver, Nixon, Kissinger and U.S. Foreign Policy Making: The
Machinery of Crisis, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2011,
21

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in more detail and the ways in which Kissinger imposed this upon

his foreign policy decisions, this paper will be analysing one specific

case study. In this case, the event of the SALT treaties and Dtente

will be focused upon. One key factor that must be taken into

account is that the personal relationship between Nixon and

Kissinger and their professional relationship were very different.

Despite Nixons feelings towards Kissinger and his background, after

working together for almost two years, Kissinger was essentially free

to carry out policy as he pleased and only rarely had to run an idea

past the Oval Office for approval20.

With this point in mind, it could be concluded that with the power

that he had been given by Nixon, in his role as National Security

Advisor, that Kissinger could have contributed to the mind-set that

he was in the position to carry out foreign policy as he saw

necessary. Kissinger made little effort to conceal the belief that he

considered himself to be a statesman, despite only reaching the

height of Secretary of State21. One interesting theory that was

developed by Starr was the concept of an operational code 22. For

example, courage and decisiveness came first for Kissinger, an

idea that was evident in his foreign policy. This would then lead to

the belief that the way in which Kissinger carried out the foreign

20Harvey Starr, The Kissinger Years: Studying Individuals and

Foreign Policy, International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 24, No. 4, 1980,
467
21Starr, The Kissinger Years, Studying Foreign Policy,479
22Starr, The Kissinger Years, Studying Foreign Policy,479

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policy of the Nixon administration would be different than had

another individual carried it out because Kissinger was driven by

these particular ideals. His mind-set would have had a major

influence on his foreign policy choice, as was evident in the SALT

talks where Kissinger urged Nixon to stonewall the Soviets on Berlin

if the impeded the SALT talks.23 Additionally Nixon and Kissinger,

due to their similar beliefs in foreign policy, were convinced that

improvements in relations with the USSR would assist them in

creating more fruitful relations with China; a state that both men

acknowledged the importance of24. It is evident from the research by

this paper that Kissinger was a very unique figure within the field of

foreign policy analysis. Due to his personality and relationship with

Nixon, Kissingers foreign policy was very much a product of his

state of mind, both in his position as secretary of state and also

throughout his time as National Security Advisor.

To conclude, this paper has found that the individual has more

influence over foreign policy decisions and outcomes than

previously was taken into account in the analysis of foreign policy.

Throughout the three case-studies that this paper has analysed, in

the case of Tony Blair, Margaret Thatcher and Henry Kissinger, the

choices that the individual makes can have a great impact upon the

way in which foreign policy is carried out by that state. The mental

23Robert Dallek, Nixon and Kissinger: Partners in Power. London:

Penguin, 2007, 287
24Dallek, Nixon and Kissinger: Partners in Power, 288

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state of actors proved to be an area of specific interest because of

the ways in which this can affect the decisions made by heads of

state and governments. Fore example, the way in which Margaret

Thatcher made her decision would have differed if she hadnt been

under such intense pressure from other members of her cabinet.

Kissinger proved to be unique in that he could be seen to have

taken advantage of the relationship that he had with Kissinger in

order to progress his own idea of foreign policy. The foreign policy of

Tony Blair can be seen to have been a product of his the personality

traits and the need to always be greater than others.

Hudson poses the question: Do leaders matter?25. This paper has

found that leaders do matter and more importantly, the ways by

which they arrive at their decisions prove to be more fascinating. In

order to answer the question that was posed at the beginning of this

paper, it is evident that the degree to which decision makers impose

themselves onto their foreign policy decisions is great and should no

longer be overlooked in the field of foreign policy analysis.

25 Hudson, Foreign Policy Analysis: Classic and Contemporary

Theory, 37

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Bibliography
Campbell, Alastair. The Blair Years: The Alastair Campbell Diaries. London:
Random House, 2007.

Dallek, Robert. Nixon and Kissinger: Partners in Power. London: Penguin,

2007.

Dyson, Stephen Benedict. "Personality and Foreign Policy: Tony Blair's Iraq
Decisions." Foreign Policy Analysis 2 (2006): 289-306.

Hermann, Margaret G. "Explaining Foreign Policy Behaviour Using the

Personal Characteristics of Political Leaders." International Studies
Quarterly (Blackwell Publishing) 24, no. 1 (March 1980): 7-46.

Hill, Christopher. "The Blair Effect: The Blair Government 1997-2001." In

Foreign Policy, by Anthony Seldon, 332. London: Little, Brown & Company,
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House of Commons Hansard, 25 June 1981, columns 387-394 Defence

Programme

Hudson, Valerie M. Foreign Policy Analysis: Classic and Contemporary

Theory. Plymouth: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc., 2007.

Ipsos MORI. Conservative Leader Image. September 11, 2013.

http://www.ipsos-
mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/poll.aspx?
oItemID=58&view=wide (accessed November 1, 2013).

Dr. James D Boys 13 05/11/13

INR 6415 Major Essay Ryan Baldry

Parker, Robert J. British Prime Ministers. Gloucestershire: Amberley

Publishing, 2013.

Rothkopf, David. Running the World. New York: PublicAffairs, 2006.

Siniver, Asaf. Nixon, Kissinger and U.S. Foreign Policy Making: The
Machinery of Crisis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2011.

Starr, Harvey. "The Kissinger Years: Studying Individuals and Foreign

Policy." International Studies Quarterly 24, no. 4 (1980): 465-496.

Sticha, Paul J. , Dennis M. Buede, and Richard L. Rees. It's the People,
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Suri, Jeremi. Henry Kissinger and the American Century. Cambridge, MA:
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Defence Budget 1983. Speech. Prod. The National Archives. London, June
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Watkins, Alan. A Conservative Coup: The Fall of Margaret Thatcher.

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Dr. James D Boys 14 05/11/13