Consequence of Rapid Population Growth

Why is it importtant to limit our numbers? Of the more than 5 bilion people alive today, to many lack
adequate food, water, shelter, education, and employement. Ironically, high fertility. Traditionally
associated with prosperity, prestige, and security for the future, now jeoparadizes chances for many to
achieve health and security.

Rich and poor countries alike are affected by population growth, though the populations of industrial
countries are growing more slowly than those of developing ones. At present growth rates, the
population of economically developed countries would double in 120 years, where as the Third
World, with over three quarters of worlds people, would double its numbers in about 33 years. This
rapid doubling time reflects the fact that 37 percent of the developing worlds population is under age
of 15 and entering their most productive childbearing years. In the Third World countries (excluding
China), 40 percent of the people are under 15; in some African countries, nearly half are in this age-
group.

The worlds projected population growth will call for a commensurate increase in efforts to meet need
for food, water, shelter, jobs, and education. It is estimated that by the year 2000, the world will need
600 million new jobs, teachers for 300 million additional children, and family planning services for
400 million women. In the poorest countries, massive efforts are needed to keep social and economic
conditions from deteriorating further; any real advances in well-being and the quality of life are likely
to be negated by further population growth. In the industrialized world, many countries lack adequate
domestic supplies of basic materials needed to support their current populations.

Population Growth and the Quality of Life

Rapid population growth can affect both the overall quality of life and the degree of human suffering
in a nation or region.

The Quality of Life Index

In the late 1970s, a composite index of the physical quality of life (PQLI) was developed by the
Overseas Development Council, based on life expectancy, infant mortality, and literacy. Countries
with low birth rates (number of birth per 1000 population in a given year) consistently rank high on
the PQLI, while those with high birth rates have lower PQLI ratings.

The Human Suffering Index

More recently, The Population Crisis Committee compiled an index of human suffering for each of
130 countries, based on 10 measures of human welfare. When the index is compared with annual rates
of population increase, there is a high correlation between level of suffering and rate of increase.

The suffering index and rate of population increase are plotted in Figure 3.3 (on the following page),
which shows how the 130 countries are distributed among four leves of human suffering. Point
representing the more populous countries are labeled. The data show that :

The 30 countries falling in the extreme suffering range are all in Africa and Asia and have an
average annual population increase of 2.8 percent.
The 44 countries in the high suffering range are, with one exception (Papua-New Guinea), in
Africa, Asia, and Latin America and also have an average annual population increase of 2.8
percent.
The 29 countries in the moderate range are, with the exception of Mauritius, in Asia, Latin
America, and Europe and have an average population increase of 1.7 percent.
 The 27 countries in the minimal suffering range are, with three exceptions (Japan, Singapore,
and Trinidad-Tobago), in Europe, North America, adn Oceania and have an average annual
population increase of only 0.2 percent.

Carrying Capacity

Rapid population growth can push a region beyond its economic and natural resource limits-its
carrying capacity or long-term ability to support the people who live there without degrading the
regions resources. The number of people, the nature and quantity of production and consumption, adn
the cumulative impact on resources and environment are all factors that determine a given areas
carrying capacity.

The carrying capacity of developing and industrial countries generally involves different factors. In
developing countries, widespread malnutririon, especially if accompanied by environmental
deterioration such as rapid soil loss or desertification, may be one indication that a country is
exceeding its carrying capacity. In the industrial world, high per capita use of energy and raw
materials that requires major imports of these resource to meet demand indicates that a country is
exceeding its caryying capacity.

Globally, changes in the Earths atmosphere-including increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide,

methane, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and other gases stemming from the growing impact of human
numbers and technology-are contributing to the greenhouse effect and may be warming the Earth.
The buildup of CFCs and halons is also depleting the Earths protective ozone layer. Such changes
may be evidence that we are beginning to exceed the Earths carrying capacity.

Some experts believe that before the worlds population reaches 6 bilion, some countries will grossly
exceed their carrying capacity and experience rapid rises in death rates which regions and societies
declined rapidly after-life-support systems became overstressed. Ancient example include the Tigris-
Euphrates fertile crescent in the Middle East, and the Mayan civilization in Central America, which
after 17 centuries of growth collapsed within decades when increasing population and soil erosion
made their society and economy unsustainable. A more modern example is Ireland, where population
doubled from 4 million to 8 million in less than 50 years. Beginning in 1845, fungus blight destroyed
several potato crops and the population was cut in half through starvation, disease, and large-scale
emigration.

Population Growth and Environmental Degragation

The Earths carrying capacity is burdened not only by the demands of more than 5 billion people, but
also by the food requirements of 4 billion cattle, sheep, pigs, goats, and other livestock, as well as
more than 9 billion chickens and other domestic fowl. In addition to the pressures from growing
human populations, the clearing of land for cattle ranching is and important factor in tropical
deforestation, and overgrazing by livestock is a major cause of desertification and soil loss in many
countries.

Deforestation

Tropical countries with high population growth rates ususally have deforestation rates well above the
average annual rate of 0.6 percent for tropical areas. For example, in West Africa, five countries with
an average deforestation rate of 3.4 percent; and in Latin America, eight countries with an average
population growth rate of 3.0 percent experience an average 3.1-percent forest loss each year.

In Central America, the rapid growth of both human and cattle populations has been accompanied by
large-scale clearing of primary forests. Between 1950 and 1985, the human population in this region
increased by 183 percent, from 9.2 million to 26.1 million, while about 40 percent of the original
forest cover was lost. Over roughly the same period, the number of beef cattle and the area of
pastureland more than doubled.

In many parts of the Third World, population growth is accelerating the clearing of forested areas and
contributing to the extinction of plant and animal species. And since an estimated 23 to 42 percent of
the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide comes from the burning of forest in developing countries,
rapid population growth in these regions will contribute to global climate change.

Desertification

In Africa, the growing human population is a major factor in degradation of the land. Between 1950
and 1985, the continents population increased 149 percent, from 222 million to 553 million.
Pressures from human and animal populations translate into deforestation, overcultivation, and
overgrazing, which often lead to desertification-the reduction of the land;s biological productivity.

Desertification is now an ongoing process in some 22 countries in Africa. In the seven Sahelian-
zone nations of West Africa, where the population growth rate averages 2.7 percent and the
deforestation rate is seven times the Third World average, desertification is described as rampant,
and has affected nearly 90 percent of the productive drylands in the region.

Soil Erosion

Estimates of soil loss due to erosion by water and wind have been made for a number of regions.
Estimated erosions rates are high-in some areas many times the rate for U.S. croplands-for parts of
Central and Southern Africa, where population growth rates are between 2.8 and 3.2 percent a year; in
Central America, with population densities between 200 and 650 persons per square mile; and in parts
of South and East Asia with population densities between 240 and 640 persons per square mile.

Migration and Growth of Urban Areas

Although in past centuries migration may have served as an escape valve for over population, today
there are relatively few habitable empty spaces to settle and few countries that accept immigrants in
significant number. In the past century, most of the globes fertile lands have been settled. Now, when
population grows in a region, joblessness and over crowding can result. Relief may take the form of
voluntary or forced migration-to a city or other area within a nation, or to another nation.

The proportion of the worlds population living in urban areas grew from 29 percent in 1950 to 42
percent in 1985, and is projected to reach 60 percent by 2020. Migration to cities, the crucial force in
the initial phase of urbanization, is contributing to the marked increase of urbanization in the
developing world. Almost 90 percent of Third World population increase over the next few decades
will be in urban areas. Ten of the worlds 12 largest cities will be in developing countries by the year
2000; the populations of each one will range from 13 to 26 million.

Urban growth is resulting more from rural than urban properity; rapir rural population growth, along
with inequitable land distribution, poor income prospects, and inadequate government investment in
agriculture, all combine to make even urban slums seem more appealing than rural life. With Third
World unemployed rates ranging as high as 30 to 50 percent, the search for jobs is a major incentive
for migration. And as urban areas drain the surrounding countryside of resources-for example, as city
dwellers destroy forests in their search for firewood in place of unffordable oil-rural residents may be
forced to migrate. Unfortunately, migrants arriving in many Third World cities find large areas of
shantytown and slums characterized by high unemployment, pollution, disease, social disorder,
political unrest, and in many cases violence.

Rapid urban growth has led to the concentration of political power in cities and the favoring of urban
areas in national development plans. This basis toward urban areas power-demonstrated by subsidies
for food and other goods sold in cities, discouragement of agricultural investment, and overvalued
exchange rates that lower the costs of imports-leads to increased rural deprivation and flight to the
cities. Recently, however, escalating debt burdens have been preventing Third World governments
from favoring urban areas and forcing them to limit urban subsidies and services.

In industrial countries, large-scale urbanization occured relatively slowly and in conjunction with
economic growth, allowing urban growth to be accomodated. In the Third World, however, rapid
population growth and urbanization without adequate economic growth leaves governments unable to
meet the needs of burgeoning urban areas. As a result, urban conditions in much of the Third World
are harsh. At least a third of Bombay lives in slums, and Mexico City is surrounded by shanties and
garbage dumps. Most developing nations cities are similiarly circled by squatter settlements that lack
space, safe water, sanitation, waste collection, lighting, adequate housing, and other essentials for
decent living.

These conditions lead to the spread of diseases, including typhoid, cholera, malaria, and hepatitis; to
increase in alienation and violence; and to a high level of vulnerability to natural and industrial
disasters. The explosive growth that has occured in selected Third World cities since 1950, along with
population projections for the year 2000. In summary, urbanization in developing countries is
generally not promoting economic developments as it did earlier in the industrialized nations. In many
ways, urbanization is impeding the struggle toward sustainable development in the Third World.

Population Pressures and Political Instability

Rapid population growth, especially when it occurs in regions with sharp ethnic differences, can put
great stress on political institutions and complicate the problems of governance. In a study of 120
countries, the Population Crisis Commiittee found that only a few countries with severe demographic
pressures managed to maintain stable constitutional governments and achieve good records on
political and civil right. Of the 31 countries rated highest on political instability, nearly all had serious
population pressures. Conversely, most nations that were relatively stable and democratic tended to
have lower levels of demographic pressure.

Population Growth and Conflict

There are many links between population growth and social conflict. When growing populations
compete for limited or inequitably distributed resource such as land, food, water, or income, conflict
may occur. When population growth outsrips economic growth, declining per capita income and
living standards can lead to social unrest and civil war. And when deteriorating natural resource can
no longer support growing populations, conflicts can arise as people are forced to move to seek a
livelihood. In Africa, many of these ecological refugees, driven by desertificiation, have crossed
national borders and come into conflict with people living in the areas they try to enter.

In general, when large groups move voluntarily or are displaced, they increase the competition for
jobs and resources in their new location, and they may be resented. Tensions resulting from migration
and ethnic differences can develop in any country, but the most serious conflict often occur in densely
populated regions. As more people compete for scarce resources and seek equality and autonomy,
hostilities often erupt. Overpopulation increase crime, and in some place has aggravated ethnic or
tribal discord to the point of civil war.

As population growth has accelerated in the twentieth century, civil wars have increased sharply, and
are now by far the major from of warfare. Of the nearly 20 million war-related death since the end of
World War II, over 15 million have occured in conflicts primarily domestic in nature. Since 1945,
nearly 8.7 million war-related death have occured in countries with current population densities
greater than 500 persons per square mile, five times the world average. The area that is now
Bangladesh, with the highest population density of any major country (1.969 persons per square mile)
has registered 1.5 million war-related death since 1945.
Summmary of World Population Situation

While some assessments of the Earth;s resource and human abilities have led observers to see
optimistic prospects for unlimited future development, and while population growth by itself does not
necessarily lower the quality of life or result in environmental degradation, in many developing
countries population growth is clearly undermining the capacity to meet basic economic and social
needs and to protect natural resources. There is ample evidence that many social, economic, political,
and environmental problems are worsened by rapid population growth. Malnutririon and disease,
unemployement, political unrest, water and fuelwood shortages, deforestation, drought and flooding,
desertification, soil loss, air and water pollution, depletion of ocean fisheries, and loss of plant and
animal species are all exacerbated by rapid increase in human numbers.

Population Growth in the United States

Contrary to the common misconception that the United States has attained xero population growth,
U.S. population, now 249 million, is still growing by about 2.2 million each year is liekly to continue
well into the 21st century. U.S. population is projected to reach 268 million, Eja sayang Trisha!!