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Key Messages
Conict analysis can support orientation for future action. Conicts are dynamic systems.
Any intervention becomes part of the system and should focus on supporting the creative,
positive energies, in the system or related to the system.
Conict analysis can entail: 1) verifying if one is dealing with a conict, 2) determining the
conict system boundaries, with the option of revising these later on, 3) using conict
analysis tools (presented below) to focus on certain aspects of the conict and organize
information.
INTRODUCTION
This conict analysis Tip Sheet1 summarizes seven 2. The Human Needs Theory3 argues that con-
tools that can be used to assess different character- flicts are caused by basic universal human
istics of a conict in a structured way. It focuses our needs that are not satised. The needs should to
attention on particular aspects of a conict, to bring be analyzed, communicated and satised for the
order into a confused conict perception. Conict conict to be resolved.
analysis is not an objective art. It is inuenced by
different world-views. The Harvard Approach, the 3. The Conict Transformation4 approach sees
Human Needs Theory and the Conict Transforma- conflicts as destructive or constructive interac-
tion approach are frequently used: tions, depending on how conicts are dealt with
or transformed. Conflicts are viewed as an
1. The Harvard Approach 2 emphases the differ- interaction of energies. Emphasis is given on the
ence between positions (what people say they different perceptions, and the social and cultural
want) and interests (why people want what they context in which reality is constructed. Construc-
say they want). It argues that conflicts can be tive conflict transformation seeks to empower
resolved when actors focus on interests instead of actors and support recognition between them.
positions, and when they develop jointly accepted
S D C , C O P R E T, D E C E M B E R 2 0 0 5
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Once we have decided that the situation we are with economic trade. A conict is often enacted at
dealing with is a conict, we need to decide on the a systems weakest point, not necessarily where it is
system boundaries. What actors and factors do we caused. Thus whenever analyzing conicts, we must
want to focus on, which ones shall we leave out for consider the system boundaries we have set, and
the moment? One can focus on various systems. reect on how they relate to the environment the
Every conict is a sub-system in a larger system its conict is embedded in. Depending on where we
context (or super-system). A conict in one sub-sys- set the boundaries, the conict will present itself dif-
tem may only be a symptom of a conict located in ferently. The boundaries have to be revised period-
the context of a larger system. Domestic violence, ically, to make sure we are working where we have
for example, may be part of a conict between two the best leverage. After setting the conict system
land-use systems, which is embedded in an ethno- boundaries, we can use one or more of the follow-
political conict in one country, which in its turn is ing tools to deepen our insight onto various aspects
affected by different international policies dealing of the conict.
HO W TO U S E T H E C O N F L I C T A N A LY S I S TO OLS
All the conict analysis tools are structured in the ing to their focus on dynamics, actors, causation,
same way: 1) description of the tool, 2) aim of the structures, issues and options/strategies. The Con-
tool, and 3) step by step instructions on how to ict Wheel summarizes all the tools and helps you
use the tool. The tools can be categorized accord- decide which tool to use for which aspect.
SUM M A RY O F C O N F L I C T A N A LY S I S TO O L S
1. Conict Wheel: Introduces six important dimen- 5. INMEDIOs Conict Perspective Analysis (CPA):
sions of conict analysis (dynamics, actors, cau- The Conict Perspective Analysis (CPA) focuses
sation, structures, issues and options/strategies). on the different perspectives of the various par-
It organizes the other conict analysis tools and ties. By putting them side by side, one can see
is a meta tool. where there are differences and things in com-
mon. CPA follows the phases of a mediation. It
2. Conict Tree: The conict tree deals with the dif- is a good preparation for a mediation, can also
ference between structural and dynamic fac- be used to coach one conict party. CPA does not
tors, visualizing how conict issues link these two look explicitly at structures or context.
aspects.
6. Needs-Fears Mapping: Similar to the CPA, this
3. Conict Mapping: The conict mapping focuses method focuses on actors and their issues, inter-
on actors and their interrelationships. It is a good ests, needs, fears, means and options. It allows
tool to start analyzing a conict. Power asymme- for a clear comparison of actors similarities and
try can be represented by the relative size of the differences in the form of a table.
actors circles. Animosity and alliances are sym-
bolized with lines. 7. Multi-Causal Role Model: This model focuses on
causation, on the different quality of reasons,
4. Glasls Escalation Model: The model aims to t triggers, channels, catalysts, and targets. Con-
our conict intervention strategy to the conict tent and actors, dynamics and structures are also
parties escalation level. The message is that it considered.
may be pointless to talk to a suicide bomber, or
shoot people who are shouting at each other.
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T I P S H E E T
CONFLICT ANALYSIS TOOLS
TO O L 1 : T H E C O N F L I CT WHEEL
Description: The conict wheel is a meta conict Conicts by denition refer to frictional relation-
analysis tool, introducing the others tools. Each of ships between parties.
the six sections of the wheel can be further ana- 2. Issues are the topics of the conict; what people
lysed using tools presented below (or references discuss or ght about.
to other Tip Sheets). The Wheel gives a rst over- 3. Dynamics refer to the escalation level of the con-
view of a conict, before analysing specic aspects. ict, the intensity of interaction, the tempera-
The Wheel symbolizes wholeness and movement, ment and the energy of a conict that transforms
once the various aspects have been examined, they people.
need to be brought together again, to get the con- 4. Context/Structures: The conict context and struc-
ict analysis rolling. tural factors are often outside the conict system
one is looking at. Structural violence refers to vio-
Aim: To organize the other conict analysis lence that is not directly caused by people, but by
tools the economic and political systems in place, e.g.
To serve as an overview when rst causing poverty.
approaching a conict. 5. Causation: Conflicts are never mono-causal,
but multi-causal and systemic factors interact.
1. Actors/Relations: Actors or parties are people, Instead of saying that everything is related to eve-
organizations or countries involved in a conict. rything, it is helpful to differentiate between dif-
If they are directly involved in the conict they are ferent causes or inuence factors.
called conict parties, if they become involved 6. Options/Strategies: This point examines ways to
transforming the conict, they are called third deal with the conict, strategies that are used or
parties. Stakeholders have an interest in the con- could be used, conict party or third party efforts
ict or its outcome, but are not directly involved. to de-escalate the conict.
CPA
Needs-Fears Mapping
6. Options / 4. Context /
Strategies Structures
CPA Conict Tree
Needs-Fears Mapping
Glasls Escalation Model See also Do No Harm
5. Causation
Tip Sheet
See also Do No Harm
and PCIA Tip Sheet
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TOO L 2 : T H E C O N F L I C T T R E E 5
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T I P S H E E T
CONFLICT ANALYSIS TOOLS
TO O L 3 : C O N F L I C T M AP 6
Frie nd s
of IGA D:
US A ,
U mma
Bel g .
It al. G B
SPLA
ND A
US A
Oc t 2003
Double line = Very good relation- Half circles or quarter circle = exter-
ship, alliance nal parties, third parties
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TOO L 4 : G L A S L S C O N F L I C T E S C A L AT I O N MODEL 7
Description: Escalation is an increase in tension in where parties often have to be forced to accept an
a conict. Initially, people in a conict start by want- intervention. Interactive forms of conict interven-
ing something. After escalation we not only want tion are suitable in low- or mid-level escalated con-
something, but we also want to hurt our opponent. icts where the involved parties are still willing to sit
The nal level of escalation is mutual destruction. together to discuss the conict.
Conflict transformation understood descriptively,
refers to how we create conicts, and the energy of Aim: To nd out how escalated the conict is.
a conict also that changes, transforms us. Pre- To decide how to transform conicts.
scriptively, conict transformation is understood as The form and force of conict interven-
our efforts to de-escalate conicts. tion in a conict has to t the level of
escalation of the conict.
The dynamics of escalation can be analysed with
the following model: Glasl differentiates between Step by step instructions:
nine levels of escalation. He portrays escalation as 1. Analyse the escalation level of the conict par-
a downward movement, where conict parties get ties in question, using the table and graph below.
sucked into the conict dynamics. They are pulled Note that the level of escalation of the group
into a negative downward spiral. This is not a linear may be different from the level of escalation of an
movement, but one over a series of stairs and falls. individual member of that group. Conict par-
Parties may stay in one phase for a while, before ties may be at a different level of escalation.
plummeting down to a further level of escalation. 2. Once the level of escalation is determined, assess
As the level of escalation increases, the interven- if the planned or implemented conict transfor-
ing party has to become more forceful in its form mation effort is potentially an adequate form of
of intervention, because the potential for self-help intervention. Refer to the graphic.
of the involved parties decreases. The forcefulness
of an intervention therefore increases from level
one, where the parties may accept a conict man-
agement intervention based on trust, to level nine,
1. Hardening: Positions harden and there is a rst confrontation. The conviction still exists
that the conict can be solved in discussion. There are no xed camps.
2. Debate, polemics: Polarisation of thinking, feeling and will. Black and white thinking.
Perception of superiority and inferiority.
3. Actions not words: Speaking will not help anymore. Strategy of fait accompli, presenting the
opponent with facts on the ground, physical action. Empathy is lost, there is
a danger of false interpretation of the other side.
4. Images, coalitions: The parties manoeuvre each other into negative roles and ght these roles.
Parties seek support from people who have not been involved so far.
5. Loss of face: Public and direct attack on the moral integrity of the opponent,
aiming at the loss of face of him/her. A major escalation step.
6. Strategies of threats: Threats and counter threats. The conict accelerates through ultimatums.
8. Fragmentation: Destruction and fragmentation of the opponents system is ones main aim.
9. Together into the abyss: Total confrontation without any possibility of stepping back. The destruction
of oneself is accepted as the price of the destruction of the opponent.
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T I P S H E E T
CONFLICT ANALYSIS TOOLS
Level of escalation:
1. Hardening
2. Debates, polemics
4. Images, coalitions
5. Loss of face
6. Strategies
of threats
7. Limited
destructive blows
Form of intervention:
8. Fragmentation
of the enemy
9. Together
into the
Self-help, moderation abyss
Facilitative mediation
Process accompaniment
Classical mediation
Arbitration
Power intervention
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TOO L 5 : I N M E D IO S C O N F L I C T P E R S P E C T I VE ANALYSIS (CPA) 8
Description: CPA is a method to analyze a conict direct quotation) on a separate card, place it under
in a step by step process, developed by Inmedio the relevant actors listed in phase 2.
mediators for micro (interpersonal), meso (organ- 4. Background interests and motivations: What are
izational) and macro area. CPA focuses on the the motivations behind the facts of phase 3?
different perspectives of the involved parties; this What are the interests of the actors, why did they
helps conict parties to broaden their view. Ulterior say or do this or that? In this phase interpretations
motives become more visible and seem less threat- and hypotheses are sought. Possible interests,
ening. CPA can be used without professional help. wishes, needs and emotions of the parties should
The CPA steps follow the phases of a mediation. The be brought forward. The outsider colleagues
Conict Perspective Analysis can be used: 1) when should step into the shoes of the conflict par-
counselling among colleagues, 2) as a preparation ties and express their interests from their point of
before a mediation or 3) as a coaching tool. view, begin with I, conict party A, feel. Sen-
tences which help to express needs and wishes
Aim: To separate facts from interpretations, are I would like you to or It would be impor-
people from problems, positions from tant for me to. Also, the concerns, fears and
interests/needs/fears. emotions, such as I am afraid, If you do. I
To enable a change of perspective, to feel, are important. Motivations may be con-
walk in the other persons shoes, to tradictory, list all of them! Look for plausible moti-
make motivations of all actors plausible. vations: there are often good motivations for
To broaden perspectives. bad behavior. If you nd different motivations
To elaborate hypotheses on new options, for party A and B, you can list them separately
without taking the ownership of the con- under the two parties names. If they are similar,
ict or solutions of the conict away from they can be placed in the middle. The main aim
the involved parties. of this phase is to understand each side, to walk
in his/her shoes for a few miles. Dont forget that
Step by step instructions: all your work during this phase is hypothetical,
CPA is described here as a tool for counselling empathy is needed.
among colleagues. The setting: a colleague is 5. Options: Only when the parties motivations have
involved in a conict, he/she wants your help to deal become plausible during phase 4, is a brain-
constructively with it: storming on possible options and next steps suit-
1. Presentation: The person involved in the conict able. Questions such as which options cover as
describes the situation. What is it all about from many interests/needs of the participants as pos-
their point of view? This should not take more sible or which options get rid of as many fears
than 10 minutes. For the rest of the time, the of the participants as possible are helpful. To
person concerned is silent, except if he/she has broaden the possibilities, the question how can
something important to add or is asked for an we implement the conict parties interests dif-
input. The effect of this rst phase is to inform the ferently than if we follow what the conict par-
outsider colleagues and to relieve the person ties originally demanded (their positions) is use-
concerned by being actively listened to, by the ful. Think of at least two options for each issue.
acceptance and recognition of colleagues. Remember the brainstorming rules: all ideas are
2. Actors: The next step consists of the outsider good, no corrections, no editing, no comments.
colleagues identifying who is involved in the con- 6. Reality check: Phase 6 is the place for editing and
flict. Analysis is easier with few actors. Focus assessing. Possible concerns about the raised
on the main parties, possible stakeholders and options can be thought through. What are the
potential third parties. List them on cards, place parties fears concerning possible next steps? Is
them on the oor or stick them on a ip chart. there a need for optimisation of the proposed
3. Facts: What has happened? Who did what? Who options?
said what? This step should be completely free of 7. New discoveries/Conclusion: The process of the
interpretations and perceptions. The aim of phase CPA is wrapped up. The person who is involved in
3 is to focus on observable facts only, things that the conict should give their opinion on whether
cold be recorded on video, facts that are not it was possible for them to gain better insight into
debated by one or the other of the conict parties. the other conict parties perspectives, and on the
Write each fact or O-Sound (original sound = added value of the CPA for them personally.
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T I P S H E E T
CONFLICT ANALYSIS TOOLS
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TOO L 6 : N E E D S - F E A R S M A P P I N G
Description: The Needs-Fears Mapping is an actor table for the other actors, and they then exchange
oriented clarication tool. For each actor, the issues, about self and foreign images. A certain degree
interests/expectations/needs, fears, means and of trust and understanding is needed for this last
options are listed in a table. This enables compari- version to work.
son and quick reference. The table is comparable to
the CPA tool. It can be used 1) to analyse a conict Aim: To clarify in a comparable format the
by one actor, writing the points for the other actors various actors attributes
hypothetically, 2) by a third party to clarify her/his To leave deadlocked positions, and
perception of the actors hypothetically, 3) during focus on needs and fears, and possible
mediation an abbreviated table can be used, e.g. options to deal with these
with issues and interests. By seeing ones issues and To help people understand each others
interests written down on a ip chart or pin board, a perceptions
conict party has some assurance that his/her point To stimulate discussion
has been heard, 4) it can be used as a conict per-
spective change exercise, when each actor lls in the
Irrigation Financing of irriga- Income generation Scheme will be Political lobbying, Join the dialogue
farmers tion scheme stopped, they will shooting the cows process, suggest
have to leave their or pastoralists employment of pas-
job toralists on the farms
Pastoralists Access to water Livelihood and Their herds cannot Political lobbying, Join the dialogue
for their herds survival survive, they pushing the herds process suggest a
will have to migrate into the irrigated corridor to the water
area, shooting the
farmers
Development Implementation of Wish to fullll man- Project fails and the Financial incentives, Bringing parties
Cooperation project in a Do no date, income and agency is blamed convening power together to discuss
agency harm manner status at home issues
Government Economic growth Re-election, Civil unrest, lack of Financial, political Inuence the dia-
without social unrest popularity development and legal means logue process, com-
pensation fund
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T I P S H E E T
CONFLICT ANALYSIS TOOLS
TO O L 7 : M U LT I - C AU S A L ROLE MODEL
Description: The concept differentiates structural the positions and expressed interests of the con-
from actor-oriented factors by synthesizing system ict parties. Targets affect the content of the con-
and actor approaches. Disputes have their roots in ict.
psycho-sociological, socioeconomic, political, and c) Channels are lines of political, social, economic
international conditions. There is normally a syn- or national cleavage, that group people together,
drome of factors that causes violence. that form group-identity. Channels affect content
and dynamics of a conflict. The channels are
Aim: To trace causal mechanisms, patterns, often not directly related to the root cause of the
to distinguish between the different conict.
quality and role of the various factors d) Triggers initiate a new level of conict. In violent
that lead to conicts. conicts, for example, a trigger causes an actor
To analyze both the content as well as who previously preferred non-violent solutions,
the dynamics of a specic conict. to now favor violent action. The trigger inuences
To facilitate the location of entry points the dynamics of a conict. Triggers are hard to
for conict transformation, to differen- identify in advance, and are not easily inuenced
tiate between short term and long term by a third party.
commitment needs. e) Catalysts inuence the rate, intensity and dura-
tion of a conict once the conict is underway,
affecting content and dynamics of a conict. Cat-
Step by step instructions: alysts and channels together may transform rea-
1. Focusing on your conict, differentiate between sons over time, for example when two groups
the following factors: begin by ghting over resources, and end up by
a) Reasons, the basic or root causes and structural ghting over ethnicity.
factors of the conict, perceived by the actor as 2. Once you have identied the various factors, situ-
historical problems. Reasons are related to a ate the reasons, triggers, channels, catalysts, tar-
conict parties interests and needs, but also to gets in a graph and link them with arrows.
their perception of history, trauma, injustice etc. 3. On separate cards, see which conflict trans-
They affect content and dynamics of the conict. formation efforts are addressing which factors
b) Targets are the aims of the conict parties, what and where there is need for a change or further
the conict parties say they are ghting about, efforts.
Targets
Channels Catalysts
S D C , C O P R E T, D E C E M B E R 2 0 0 5
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SOM E U S E F U L I N T E R N E T S O U R C E S
Footnotes
1
This Tip Sheet is based on the INMEDIO/SDC-COPRET mediation course and the referenced literature.
2
Harvard Approach:
Fisher, R., Ury, W. and Patton, B. (1991). Getting to Yes: Negotiating Agreement Without Giving In
(2 nd ed.). Penguin, New York.
Ury, W., Brett, J., and Goldberg, S. (1993). Getting Disputes Resolved (2nd ed.). Jossey-Bas Publishers,
San Francisco
3
Human Needs Approach:
Burton, John W., (ed.) (1990). Conict: Human Needs Theory, St. Martins Press, New York.
Max-Neef, M. (1991). Development and Human Needs, in Max-Neef M. (1991) Human Scale
Development: Conception, Application and Further Reection, Apex Press, New York, 13-54.
Rosenberg, Marshall B. (2001). Nonviolent communication a language of compassion 5th print.
Encinitas, CA: PuddleDancer Press.
4
Conict Transformation Approach:
Bitter, Jean-Nicolas, (2003). Les Dieux Embusqus, Librairie DROZ, Geneve Paris.
Lederach, J.P. (1995). Preparing for Peace: Conict Transformation Across Cultures. Syracuse University
Press.
Lederach, J.P. (2005). The Moral Imagination, the art and soul of building peace, Oxford University Press.
Bush, B. and Folger, J. (1994). The Promise of Mediation: Responding to Conict Through Empower-
ment and Recognition, The Jossey-Bass Conict Resolution Series. Jossey-Bass, San Francisco.
5
Adapted from: Fisher, Simon, Jawed Ludin, Steve Williams, Dekha Ibrahim Abdi, Richard Smith and Sue
Williams (2000): Working with conict, skills and strategies for action. Zed books, London, New York.
6
Adapted from: Fisher, Simon, Jawed Ludin, Steve Williams, Dekha Ibrahim Abdi, Richard Smith and Sue
Williams (2000): Working with conict, skills and strategies for action. Zed books, London, New York.
7
Glasl, Friedrich, (2002). Koniktmanagement. Ein Handbuch fr Fhrungskrfte, Beraterinnen und Berater
[Conict Management. A Handbook for Executives and Counselors] (7th supplemented and revised ed.).
Verlag Freies Geistesleben, Stuttgart.
8
Wstehube, Ljubjana (2004): Konikt-Perspektiv-Analyse (KPA) ein mediations-analoges Instrument zur
konstruktiven Analyse und Bearbeitung von Konikten. In: Perspektive Mediation Heft 1.
9
Bchler, Gnther, (1999). Violence through environmental discrimination: causes, Rwanda arena, and
conict model. Kluwer Academic Publishers.
Editor:
Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation, SDC
Conict Prevention and Transformation Division (COPRET)
Freiburgstrasse 130
CH-3003 Bern
Author:
Simon Mason and Sandra Rychard
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