HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

28 February, 2017

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 STRATEGY FOR THE DAY

EURINR MAR FUT. SELL BELOW 70.75 SL 71.00 TGT 70.40

MAJOR CURRENCY CURRENCY VIEW POINT

Rupee at Pre-Demonetisation Level of 66.71

Prev.
Close Chg. % Chg.
Close
USDINR 66.71 66.83 -0.118 -0.18% Rupee closes at a fresh 15-week high against the US dollar,
DXY INDX 101.15 101.13 0.020 0.02% ahead of the key gross domestic product and fiscal deficit data
EURUSD 1.058 1.059 0.000 -0.03% today. The home currency closed at 66.71--a level last seen
GBPUSD 1.243 1.244 -0.001 -0.10% on 10 November 2016, up 0.14% from its previous close of
USDJPY 112.690 112.700 -0.010 -0.01% 66.83. The local currency opened at 66.72 and touched a high
DG USDINR 66.961 66.939 0.022 0.03% of 66.65, a level last seen on 10 November.
GDP data will provide clues on how the economy has
GLOBAL INDICES responded to the government decision to scrap Rs500 and
Rs1,000 bank notes in November. Gross domestic product will
Prev. expand 6.8% in the year through March - the slowest pace
Close Chg. % Chg.
Close since 2014 but still among the fastest in the world- according
SGX NIFTY 8926.5 8919.0 8 0.08% to the median estimates. GDP slowed to 6% in October-
NIFTY 8896.7 8939.5 -43 -0.48% December from a year earlier, the survey predicts, from 7.3%
SENSEX 28812.9 28893.0 -80 -0.28% the previous quarter. The gross value added - a key input of
HANG-SENG 23895.7 23925.1 -29 -0.12% GDP - is seen at 6% versus 7.1%. The full-year estimate of
NIKKEI 19238.7 19107.5 131 0.69%
6.8% marks a slump from 7.9%.
SHANGHAI 3231.5 3228.7 3 0.09%
The one month non-deliverable forward USDINR quoting at
S&P INDEX 2369.8 2367.3 2 0.10%
67.01 from yesterdays 66.95 indicating flat to positive start
DOW JONES 20837.4 20821.8 16 0.08%
NASDAQ
at domestic bourses.
5861.9 5845.3 17 0.28%
FTSE 7253.0 7243.7 9 0.13% Technically, the pair has been consolidating in the range of
CAC 4845.2 4845.2 0 0.00% 66.76 to 67.15. Overall bias for the pair remains bearish until
DAX 11822.7 11804.0 19 0.16% it close above 67.27, the long term moving average resistance
of 200 SMA.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 Dollar Bracing Up Ahead of Trump Speech

The dollar tread water enjoying support after U.S. President Donald Trump flagged a big boost in government
stimulus, and sought a "historic" increase in military spending. Trump will ask the U.S. Congress to boost Pentagon
spending in the next fiscal year by $54 billion in his first budget proposal, a White House budget official said. However,
the lift for the dollar is limited as the military spending increase would be accompanied by a cut in the same amount
from non-defense spending, including a large reduction in foreign aid.
ICE dollar index extended the previous day's modest gains and last up 0.02% at 101.15 after initially trading as low
as 100.69 overnight.
The pound fetched 1.2442 against after sliding to a 12-day low of 1.2384 the previous day as talk of another possible
Scottish independence vote added to fears about Britain's future as it prepares to leave the European Union.
Technically, ICE dollar index is broadly consolidate in the small range of 100.40 to 101.90.

SPOT USDINR DAILY CHART

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

Technical Observations

USDINR forming lower top lower

bottom on daily scale indicating
continuation of bearish trend.
The formation of doji candlestick
after two bearish candle indicating
indecisiveness among traders.
Momentum oscillators given positive
cross over and about to exit
oversold zone suggesting short term
bounce.
The recent price action suggesting
consolidation with the broad range
of 67.15 to 66.32.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS

Contracts Last Pivot S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 View For The Day

USDINR MAR17 66.94 66.95 66.76 66.82 66.88 67.01 67.07 67.13 Short Buildup
EURINR MAR17 70.96 70.92 70.54 70.66 70.81 71.08 71.19 71.34 Short Covering
GBPINR MAR17 83.20 83.20 82.71 82.87 83.03 83.36 83.52 83.69 Short Buildup
JPYINR MAR17 59.70 59.71 59.47 59.55 59.63 59.79 59.87 59.95 Long Buildup

Wkly Wkly 1-Mth. 1-Mth. 52 Wk 52 Wk

Spot 5 DMA 20 DMA 50 DMA 100 DMA 200 DMA
High Low High Low High Low
USDINR 67.10 66.79 68.27 66.65 68.86 66.07 66.89 67.20 67.71 67.51 67.28
EURINR 71.19 70.28 73.35 70.28 77.01 70.28 70.79 71.62 71.68 72.45 73.77
GBPINR 84.00 83.04 86.27 82.13 100.49 80.89 83.26 83.73 83.78 83.74 86.91
JPYINR 59.50 58.83 60.49 58.40 68.11 57.25 59.22 59.33 59.00 60.52 62.65

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Abs Open Chg. in Chg. in
Currency Open High Low Close Volume
Chg. Interest OI Volume
SPOT USDINR 66.72 66.77 66.65 66.71 -0.12 -- -- -- --
USDINR MAR. FUT. 67.00 67.01 66.89 66.94 -0.15 1640322 17438 768813 -428820
SPOT EURINR 70.56 70.69 70.40 70.61 0.11 -- -- -- --
EURINR MAR. FUT. 70.98 71.04 70.77 70.96 0.10 74383 -477 39100 -25772
SPOT GBPINR 83.02 83.02 82.64 82.81 -0.99 -- -- -- --
GBPINR MAR. FUT. 83.20 83.36 83.03 83.20 -0.47 43610 5667 59550 4605
SPOT JPYINR 59.57 59.57 59.38 59.43 -0.05 -- -- -- --
JPYINR MAR. FUT. 59.65 59.80 59.64 59.70 0.34 14172 1248 22746 3865

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior

02/27/2017 15:30 EC Economic Confidence Feb -- 108.0 107.9

02/27/2017 19:00 US Durable Goods Orders Jan P 1.80% 1.80% -0.50%
02/27/2017 20:30 US Pending Home Sales MoM Jan 0.90% -2.80% 1.60%
02/27/2017 21:00 US Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Feb 20 24.5 22.1

ECONOMIC EVENTS TODAY

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior

02/28/2017 16:30 IN Fiscal Deficit INR Crore Jan 43254

02/28/2017 17:30 IN GVA YoY 4Q 6.0% 7.10%
02/28/2017 17:30 IN GDP YoY 4Q 6.1% 7.30%
02/28/2017 17:30 IN GDP Annual Estimate YoY 2017 6.8% 7.90%
02/28/2017 19:00 US GDP Annualized QoQ 4Q S 2.1% 1.90%
02/28/2017 19:00 US Core PCE QoQ 4Q S 1.3% 1.30%
02/28/2017 20:15 US Chicago Purchasing Manager Feb 53.0 50.3

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)
Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com

Disclosure:

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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]