Professional Documents
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2 ()
/
Analsyt
02.6098-6695
hr.park@meritz.co.k
Construction Cycle
Earnings Change
Appendix
. 2017 3 2
(DR, CB, IPO, ) 6 . 2017 3 2
1% . 2017 3 2
. , .(: )
2 .
. ,
.
. .
2017 3 2() MERITZ Construction Builders Numbers
(%)
350
288
267.2
280 254.8 253.1
234
221.6 212.8
194.6 200.3
210 191.6
140
70
0
1990 1991~2014 1991~2000 2001~2010 2011~2014
: 6,175
: 114,
LTV .
LTV ,
.
, , ,
. / ,
/ . (1 / X )
, .
2 23
49 .
,
35 (
5 35 ) .
,
35 ,
.
35
. 10%, 3
300%
30 .
, .
Meritz Research 2
2017 3 2() MERITZ Construction Builders Numbers
3 ,
300%->500% .
,
.
,
.
,
. ,
.
3 , 200% ~
300% 250%
. 2014
, 2011~2014 APT
200% .
,
,
. ,
,
.
,
, .
1) ,
2) ,
.
2015 ,
, .
, ,
.
Meritz Research 3
2017 3 2() MERITZ Construction Builders Numbers
(%) (%)
1 50~100 1 ~100
2 100~150 2 ~120
1 100~200 1 ~150
2 150~250 2 ~200
3 200~300 3 ~250
200~500 ~400
400~1,500 ~1,000
300~1,300 ~800
200~900 ~600
200~1,100 ~600
150~300 ~200
200~350 ~200
200~400 ~400
50~80 ~50
50~100 ~50
50~100 ~50
50~80
50~80
50~100
50~80
50~80
1)
- 20%
- 200%
2)
- 250% 400%
- , ,
3 1 , 300%
- , 100%
- , . 20
20%, 8 15%
: ,
Meritz Research 4
2017 3 2() MERITZ Construction Builders Numbers
Daily Price
Meritz Research 5
2017 3 2() MERITZ Construction Builders Numbers
Monthly Price
1 1M 2 1M
(KR)
1M (KR)
Sinopec Eng(HK)
Hochtief(DE)
GER Bouygues(FR)
GS(KR)
KOR Vinci(FR)
CTCI(TW)
EM TechnipFMC(FR)
(KR)
CHN L&T(IN)
Maire Tecnimont(IT)
IND Linde(DE)
(KR)
FRA Fluor(US)
Tecnicas Reunidas(ES)
USA (KR)
JGC(JP)
WORLD CB&I(NL)
Petrofac(UK)
SPA Jacobs(US)
Amec Foster Wheeler(UK)
Toyo Engineering(JP)
DM Chiyoda(JP)
(%) KBR(US) (%)
JPN Saipem(IT)
-2 0 2 4 6 8 -20 -10 0 10 20
: Datastream, : Bloomberg,
3 YTD 4 YTD
(KR)
YTD (KR)
GS(KR)
(KR)
GER Hochtief(DE)
L&T(IN)
USA Bouygues(FR)
Sinopec Eng(HK)
IND Fluor(US)
Vinci(FR)
CHN CTCI(TW)
Petrofac(UK)
EM CB&I(NL)
Maire Tecnimont(IT)
JPN Jacobs(US)
Linde(DE)
WORLD (KR)
(KR)
DM Tecnicas Reunidas(ES)
JGC(JP)
SPA TechnipFMC(FR)
Amec Foster Wheeler(UK)
Chiyoda(JP)
KOR KBR(US)
(%) Toyo Engineering(JP) (%)
FRA Saipem(IT)
: Datastream, : Bloomberg,
5 PBR vs PBR
() PBR
PBR
4.0 3.7
2.8
3.0 2.7
2.6
2.0 2.1
1.9
2.0 1.7
1.5 1.4
1.3 1.3 1.2
1.0 1.0
1.0 0.7
0.0
KOR JPN CHN IND USA FRA GER SPA
: Datastream,
Meritz Research 6
2017 3 2() MERITZ Construction Builders Numbers
NEWS
..
1
2.8%
2012 3.1%
,
- : 8,176
- : 4,578
- : 12,750
[ ]
Fluor
.. 1
2
4,061 4 1 4,518
, 2 17,607
9%
1/3 .. 1
5
6
5 2,959
,
,
Meritz Research 7
2017 3 2() MERITZ Construction Builders Numbers
Construction Cycle
30 60
20 80
15 30
10 40
0 0
0 0
-15 -30
: REPS, : REPS,
8 9 (Liquid Fuels)
() (/) () (/)
100 3
50
98
40 2
96
30 1
94
92
20 0
90
10 -1
88
0 86 -2
'74 '77 '80 '83 '86 '89 '92 '95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10 '13 '16 '19 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16 1Q17
: , : EIA,
10 2017 11 03
() 6
(%) (% YoY)
6 ()
50 12 40
40 8 30
30 4 20
20 0 10
10 -4 0
0 -8 -10
'02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17
: WISEfn, : WISEfn,
Meritz Research 8
2017 3 2() MERITZ Construction Builders Numbers
Earnings - 2017
12 13
() 2017 () 2017
600 1,500
1,200
450
900
300
600
150
300
0 0
'15.3 '15.9 '16.3 '16.9 '15.3 '15.9 '16.3 '16.9
: WISEfn, : WISEfn,
14 GS 15
() 2017 () 2017
450 750
600
300
450
300
150
150
0 0
'15.3 '15.9 '16.3 '16.9 '15.3 '15.9 '16.3 '16.9
: WISEfn, : WISEfn,
16 17
() 2017 () 2017
750 450
600
300
450
300
150
150
0 0
'15.3 '15.9 '16.3 '16.9 '15.3 '15.9 '16.3 '16.9
: WISEfn, : WISEfn,
Meritz Research 9
2017 3 2() MERITZ Construction Builders Numbers
18 vs 19
(%)
() (%)
()
40 600 30
500 25
30
400 20
20
300 15
10
200 10
0
100 5
-10 0 0
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
: KB, : REPS,
20 21
60
120 105
45
80 90
30
40 75
15
0 60 0
'02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16
: Bloomberg, : ,
22 23
() (%) GPM
50 12
40 8
30 4
20 0
10 -4
0 -8
'14.1 '14.7 '15.1 '15.7 '16.1 '16.7 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16E '17E '18E
: REPS, :
Meritz Research 10
2017 3 2() MERITZ Construction Builders Numbers
Earnings - Data
24 25
()
()
100 40
80
30
60
20
40
20 10
0
'14.1 '14.7 '15.1 '15.7 '16.1 '16.7 '17.1 0
'14.1 '14.7 '15.1 '15.7 '16.1 '16.7 '17.1
: REPS, : REPS,
26 27
(2015.12=100) (2015.12=100)
5 5
105 105
100 100
95 95
90 90
85 85
'14.1 '14.7 '15.1 '15.7 '16.1 '16.7 '17.1 '14.1 '14.7 '15.1 '15.7 '16.1 '16.7 '17.1
: KB, : KB,
28 29
() 12M MA
() (%)
()
150 60 49
120
50 43
90
40 37
60
30 31
30
20 25
0 '14 '15 '16 '17
'14.1 '14.7 '15.1 '15.7 '16.1 '16.7 '17.1
: REPS, : ,
Meritz Research 11
2017 3 2() MERITZ Construction Builders Numbers
Earnings - / Data
30 / 31 / , ,
() (%) ()
5
150 115 120
() 90
120 80
60
90 45
30
60 10
0
30 -25
-30
0 -60 -60
'01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17E '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17E
: REPS, : REPS,
2 2017 /
6 2,296 220
10 1,975 1,766
11 1,090 212
1 751
6 6 757 145
11 3 835 219
1 1,276 192
4 e 2-2 1,199 378
4 1,859 868
6 3 4,066 1,398
9 5 1,745 726
3 3 1,505 1,034
3 4 1,182 495
4 10 1,305 461
9 2 2,441 2,061
8 4 1,372 1,291
6 1,671 433
6 12 1,008
6 9 1,199 696
6 1-1 1,226 346
5 997 513
2 1,028
2-1 1,497
2 2,029 510
4 2 782
3 2,017 926
5 2 3,345
9 7 656 176
9 2,129 518
10 3,997 1,619
3 711 245
11 827 450
3 828
4 e 1,050
8 6 815
11 2 3,853
2 4,295
3 1,663 1029
2-1 2,035 1225
2 1,102 866
12 1 2,591
9 3 1,245
10 1 914
:
Meritz Research 12
2017 3 2() MERITZ Construction Builders Numbers
Earnings -
32 33
() (%) (%) () ()
()
YoY () YoY
1,000 15 16 YoY 600
800 12
12 450
600 9
8 300
400 6
4 150
200 3
0 0 0 0
'04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
: , : ,
34 35
(%) (Bp) -
-
9.0 500
400
7.0
300
5.0
200
3.0
100
1.0 0
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
: , : ,
36 vs 37 PIR
(2015.12-=100) (%)
120 25
100
20
80
15
60
10
40
5
20
0 0
'86 '89 '92 '95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10 '13 '16 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16
Meritz Research 13
2017 3 2() MERITZ Construction Builders Numbers
Earnings -
3
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17E '18E
328,290 305,864 314,774 282,846 298,284 215,727 178,208 193,573 262,064 266,518 292,317 369,936 420,643
47,020 35,940 54,292 30,314 35,696 36,444 19,167 22,990 37,042 21,104 25,705 25,839 33,999
90,116 74,551 87,647 110,900 115,103 64,214 62,707 49,552 53,554 70,233 87,562 121,966 155,197
30,813 16,454 14,119 8,378 14,402 12,959 15,372 20,602 22,303 21,036 14,520 18,987 21,447
19,408 19,405 30,176 15,707 13,563 7,276 4,529 9,902 9,327 14,840 26,687 22,659 13,641
13,716 30,001 15,247 14,875 18,527 22,299 26,278 9,284 10,472 12,127 9,088 16,690 19,674
17,581 11,614 13,551 13,808 8,552 9,437 3,360 7,305 9,411 5,752 10,769 11,494 5,661
15,528 10,059 6,601 2,214 10,378 11,775 5,059 3,761 10,527 3,938 6,574 6,480 6,260
3,387 12,267 8,966 3,881 10,947 2,772 3,639 6,482 9,075 9,428 3,141 9,892 8,590
14,450 9,016 9,208 9,100 4,505 2,313 4,238 3,580 9,004 6,075 8,802 5,249 14,698
15,197 20,640 21,654 18,425 13,233 7,143 6,524 19,812 23,482 20,899 20,999 38,497 37,114
6,069 13,888 12,091 13,703 15,940 9,761 3,503 6,401 7,825 15,100 15,600 23,903 25,267
5,538 7,835 8,539 4,875 5,343 4,883 4,359 11,063 14,425 12,016 11,868 7,167 7,134
10,003 11,484 8,669 9,292 5,454 6,343 7,341 5,599 10,591 10,845 7,992 6,175 12,408
23,049 17,403 13,006 20,499 13,640 9,801 5,938 4,730 9,005 12,422 22,490 24,878 23,388
13,973 15,266 10,131 6,632 11,799 4,021 1,199 4,774 9,475 10,821 10,114 12,094 22,488
2,442 41 877 243 1,202 2,044 717 2,873 2,159 2,501 2,753 2,534 349
150,852 140,492 157,186 156,089 169,326 122,957 108,152 81,826 101,068 103,464 122,355 164,495 208,870
5 86,717 69,799 73,413 43,988 57,842 44,219 31,959 48,052 60,643 54,994 61,691 69,512 55,599
90,721 95,573 84,175 82,769 71,116 48,551 38,097 62,270 100,353 108,060 108,271 135,929 156,174
177,438 165,372 157,588 126,757 128,958 92,770 70,056 110,322 160,996 163,054 169,962 205,441 211,773
: REPS,
4
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
463,800 463,641 469,503 555,792 371,285 381,787 386,542 549,594 586,884 440,116 515,251 765,328 726,048
58,122 51,797 39,694 62,842 48,417 36,090 69,190 88,060 86,123 77,621 65,249 101,235 74,739
205,719 197,901 172,058 302,551 197,580 255,158 250,218 272,156 269,290 192,610 241,889 408,773 341,162
5 85,839 108,111 122,768 108,203 60,872 26,752 36,480 98,659 91,388 66,978 64,920 95,772 112,463
172,242 157,629 174,677 145,038 112,833 99,877 99,844 178,779 226,206 180,528 208,442 260,783 272,423
: REPS,
Meritz Research 14
2017 3 2() MERITZ Construction Builders Numbers
Earnings -
38 39
120 105
80 90
40 75
0 60
'02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16
: Bloomberg, : Bloomberg,
40 41
() ()
75 60
60
45
45
30
30
15
15
0 0
'71 '74 '77 '80 '83 '86 '89 '92 '95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10 '13 '16 '71 '74 '77 '80 '83 '86 '89 '92 '95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10 '13 '16
: , : ,
42 43 M/S
() () (%)
M/S()
250 50 30
200 40 24
150 30 18
100 20 12
50 10 6
0 0 0
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16
: MEED, : , MEED,
Meritz Research 15
2017 3 2() MERITZ Construction Builders Numbers
Earnings -
44 45
(%)
(%) GS
GS
40 40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0 -10
'11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16E '17E '18E '13.3 '13.9 '14.3 '14.9 '15.3 '15.9 '16.3 '16.9
: :
46 47
(%) (%)
GS GS
20 15
15 10
10 5
5 0
0 -5
-5 -10
-10 -15
'11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16E '17E '18E '13.3 '13.9 '14.3 '14.9 '15.3 '15.9 '16.3 '16.9
: :
48 49
(%) (%)
GS GS
10 15
12
8
9
6
6
4
3
2 0
'11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16E '17E '18E '13.3 '13.9 '14.3 '14.9 '15.3 '15.9 '16.3 '16.9
: :
Meritz Research 16
2017 3 2() MERITZ Construction Builders Numbers
Earnings -
() ()
52 3000
44 2500
36 2000
28 1500
20 1000
'15.3 '15.9 '16.3 '16.9 '15.3 '15.9 '16.3 '16.9
: Bloomberg, : Bloomberg,
52 Fluor 53 Chiyoda
() ()
64 1,200
58 1,050
52 900
46 750
40 600
'15.3 '15.9 '16.3 '16.9 '15.3 '15.9 '16.3 '16.9
: Bloomberg, : Bloomberg,
54 Jacobs 55 Saipem
() ()
70 2.0
60 1.5
50 1.0
40 0.5
30 0.0
'15.3 '15.9 '16.3 '16.9 '15.3 '15.9 '16.3 '16.9
: Bloomberg, : Bloomberg,
Meritz Research 17
2017 3 2() MERITZ Construction Builders Numbers
Earnings -
() (%) () (%)
() ()
2,000 8 2,500 10
2,000 5
1,500 4
1,500 0
1,000 0
1,000 -5
500 -4
500 -10
0 -8 0 -15
'14.3 '14.9 '15.3 '15.9 '16.3 '16.9 '14.3 '14.9 '15.3 '15.9 '16.3 '16.9
: Bloomberg, : Bloomberg,
58 Fluor 59 Chiyoda
() (%) () (%)
() ()
7,500 10 2,000 8
6,000
6 1,500 6
4,500
2 1,000 4
3,000
-2 500 2
1,500
0 -6 0 0
'14.3 '14.9 '15.3 '15.9 '16.3 '16.9 '14.3 '14.9 '15.3 '15.9 '16.3 '16.9
: Bloomberg, : Bloomberg,
60 Jacobs 61 Saipem
() (%) () (%)
() ()
4,000 6.0 6,000 9
0 0.0 0 -7
'14.3 '14.9 '15.3 '15.9 '16.3 '16.9 '14.3 '14.9 '15.3 '15.9 '16.3 '16.9
: Bloomberg, : Bloomberg,
Meritz Research 18
2017 3 2() MERITZ Construction Builders Numbers
Earnings -
62 63
() ()
() () () ()
() ()
400 () 100,000 400 () 70,000
: WISEfn, : WISEfn,
64 GS 65
() ()
() () () ()
() ()
320 () 40,000 300 () 85,000
20,000
-80 -200 35,000
: WISEfn, : WISEfn,
66 67
() ()
() () () ()
() ()
60 () 10,500 240 () 54,000
45,000
30 9,000 120
36,000
0 7,500 0
27,000
-30 6,000 -120
18,000
: WISEfn, : WISEfn,
Meritz Research 19
2017 3 2() MERITZ Construction Builders Numbers
Appendix - List
2016 2017
: LPG : 2
: :
: ()
: 11
: MAA (LowestL Sinppec)
: WPMP 3
2016 2017
GS
2016 2017
: : PKG 1, PKG 2
: UAE Al-Dabbiya : UAE
: LNG ( ) (): UAE
: Morupule B Phase 2 : Morupule B Phase 2 (2017
: UAE (Technip ) )
: CFP (TR ) : 15 ,
: Hoima
: Ain Tsila
:
: MAA (LowestL Sinppec)
: UAE Takreer 3
:
: UAE Umm al-Qwain
: WPMP 3
: UAE POC
(): PKG
():
Meritz Research 20
2017 3 2() MERITZ Construction Builders Numbers
2016 2017
2016 2017
Meritz Research 21
2017 3 2() MERITZ Construction Builders Numbers
Appendix -
68 69
() () () ()
() ()
40 5 24 4
32 4
18 3
24 3
12 2
16 2
6 1
8 1
0 0 0 0
'11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16E '17E '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16E '17E
: :
70 GS 71
() () () ()
() ()
40 5 32 5
32 4 4
24
24 3 3
16
16 2 2
8
8 1 1
0 0 0 0
'11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16E '17E '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16E '17E
: :
72 73
() () () ()
() ()
40 5 160 24
32 4
120 18
24 3
80 12
16 2
40 6
8 1
0 0 0 0
'11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16E '17E '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16E '17E
: :
Meritz Research 22
2017 3 2() MERITZ Construction Builders Numbers
Appendix - List
2016 2017
573 3 418 1
628 3 e 659 1
() 624 3 499 1
1-1 939 4 2 1,520 2
718 4 372
2 1,160 4 3 1,566 3
854 5 5 2,120 3
597 5 3 913 4
893 6 3 2,086 6
2 512 6 656 9
686 6 2-2 1,199 10
7() 1,073 7 3 1,245 10
8 414 7 633 10
577 7 3 439 10
2 918 8 3 852 11
703 8 1 756 11
859 9 2 1,400
5() 595 9 751
1,561 9
508 10
2,487 10
12-2 1,531 11
3 1,424 11
441 11
&e2 491 11
e 629 12
2,835 12
e 1,531 12
1,242 12
28,003 18,084
2016 2017
765 1 560 1
969 3 3() 1,281 4
735 3 1-1() 346 6
1,009 4 9() 503 6
1,479 6 3() 699 7
957 6 9() 696 7
758 7 451 8
3 1,231 8 912 9
2 1,438 9 6,8 A14 1,083 10
7 1,100 10 6-4 1,240 10
2 889 10 3() 539 10
280 10 8 694 11
800 11 3() 1,029 11
3 542 11 823 11
876 11 3 714 11
1,186 12 1() 409 11
1-1() 642 12 1() 320 12
346 12
16,002 12,299
Meritz Research 23
2017 3 2() MERITZ Construction Builders Numbers
GS
2016 2017
607 1 353 1
1,646 1 1,245 1
361 3 1,102 2
258 4 1,495 2
2,038 4 525 2
979 4 2 1,090 2
2 1,057 5 2,529 2
878 5 & 415 3
1,034 5 5,6 774 4
3 2,324 5 3 1,671 6
802 6 6 757 6
678 6 1-2 789 6
1,055 6 2,964 6
2 376 6 4,076 6
965 8 12 1,008 6
483 8 6 1,047 7
671 9 967 9
2 490 10 1,394 11
4,283 10
1,604 10
1,248 11
414 11
356 11
1,345 11
388 11
930 11
1,023 12
668 12
770 12
29,731 24,201
2016 2017
585 2 10 529 2
1() 444 2 2 782 4
2() 350 2 A 500 5
2() 369 3 444 6
1() 617 3 A 384 6
389 3 B 900 6
2() 200 3 2-1() 810 6
() 359 4 A26 3,042 6
2() 431 4 1-1 588 9
1() 187 5 3 1,034 9
1() 346 5 5 1,649 9
1() 188 6 2-1() 1,225 9
1() 561 6 1 634 9
() 1,050 6 2 524 10
3() 1,034 6 1,599 10
14() 130 7 1,712 11
14() 371 9 C 1,000 11
1BL 1,680 9 2 613 12
() 2,380 9 D 900 12
858 10 161 12
() 2,450 10
() 1,250 10
2() 198 10
1() 117 11
() 898 11
() 510 11
() 87 12
10() 303 12
18,342 19,030
Meritz Research 24
2017 3 2() MERITZ Construction Builders Numbers
2016 2017
814 5 621 2
1,628 5 754 3
1,690 3 1,500 3
2 528 3 6 296 4
817 4 852 6
726 5 1,999 6
814 5 1 329 7
1,034 5 4 403 7
721 6 6 415 8
1,051 6 7-1 599 8
3 977 6 684 9
920 8 523 9
2 1,671 8 2 641 9
736 8 5,6 619 9
190 9 1 109 10
2 4,932 9 961 11
1,068 9 450 11
1 4,030 10 15,557
1,604 10
1 396 11
6 773 11
430 11
1,774 11
2,253 12
31,577 27,312
Meritz Research 25