Modeling Impact of Bus Rapid Transit on Air

Quality: A Case Study of Klang Valley, Malaysia

Shamsul Idris
March, 2008
Course Title: Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation
for Environmental Modelling and Management

Level: Master of Science (Msc)

Course Duration: September 2006 - March 2008

Consortium partners: University of Southampton (UK)

Lund University (Sweden)
University of Warsaw (Poland)
International Institute for Geo-Information Science
and Earth Observation (ITC) (The Netherlands)
GEM thesis number: 2006-27
 Modeling Impact of Bus Rapid Transit on Air Quality:
A Case Study of Klang Valley, Malaysia

by

Shamsul Idris

Thesis submitted to the International Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth
Observation in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of
Science in Geo-information Science and Earth Observation for Environmental
Modelling and Management

Thesis Assessment Board

Chairperson : Dr. Jan De Leeuw, NRS-ITC (The Netherlands)

External Examiner : Prof. Petter Pilesj, Lund University (Sweden)
Internal Examiner : Dr. Ir. Mark Zuidgeest, PGM-ITC (The Netherlands)
Primary Supervisor : Dr. Ir. Luc Boerboom, PGM-ITC (The Netherlands)
Secondary Supervisor : Dr. Sherif Amer, PGM-ITC (The Netherlands)

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation

Enschede, The Netherlands
Disclaimer

This document describes work undertaken as part of a programme of study at

the International Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation.
All views and opinions expressed therein remain the sole responsibility of the
author, and do not necessarily represent those of the institute.
Abstract

Bus Rapid Transit has emerged as an economically beneficial mass rapid transit with
significant potential in developing cities. Many other cities in Asia announced plans
for introducing BRT corridors following popular beliefs that it can reduce
congestion, benefit of ridership, improve air quality and demonstrates relatively low
capital cost per mile of investment. Despite the current BRT development, the
performance and potential impacts of BRT system have hardly been researched. The
main motivation of this research is to examine the potential impact of a BRT
corridor on air quality and as well as to car traffic.

This research examined the impact from physical design of BRT on a highway
corridor. BRTs exclusive lane greatly reduces the available road space for
remaining mixed lane. This impact on car traffic can be modelled where limited road
space reduces mobility. When travelling time increases, certain percentage of
vehicle traffic will disappear when road space is no longer available (Goodwin et al
1998). The potential reduction of traffic can reach as high as 40%. While reduction
of Carbon Monoxide can reach an average of 31%. This research concluded that
BRT system can help improve modal split, alleviate congestion and bring added
value to the environment.

i
Acknowledgements

Firstly I would like to thanks the European Union Erasmus Mundus scholarship
programme. Under this programme I have experienced the wonderful academic lives
In University of Southampton, Lund University, University of Warsaw and ITC, and
different cultures in these four countries.

I am grateful to my first supervisor; Dr. Ir. Luc Boerboom and second supervisor;
Dr. Sherif Amer. Both of them guided me through my thesis and spend valuable
time sharing their scientific thinking.

I would like to thank all GEM classmates which we spend almost eighteen months
together leaving me with joyful memories.

Thankfulness is never enough to express my grateful to my wife and sons.

I am grateful to Allah Almighty.

ii
Table of contents

Abstract
Acknowledgement
Table of content
List of figures
List of tables
1. Introduction........................................................................................................ 1
1.1. Urbanization and Mobility....................................................................... 1
1.2. Statement of the Problems....................................................................... 4
1.3. Objectives and Sub-objectives................................................................. 7
1.4. Research Questions ................................................................................. 7
1.5. Research Method ..................................................................................... 8
1.5.1. GIS Analysis....................................................................................... 9
1.5.2. Car Traffic Modeling .......................................................................... 9
1.5.3. Emission Mapping ............................................................................ 11
1.6. Thesis Structure ..................................................................................... 12
2. Literature Review ............................................................................................ 13
2.1. Introduction ........................................................................................... 13
2.2. Traditional Four-Step Transportation Models ....................................... 13
2.3. Geographical Information System......................................................... 15
2.4. Bus Rapid Transit .................................................................................. 16
2.5. Transport Related Emission................................................................... 19
3. Study Area Description.................................................................................... 21
3.1. Introduction ........................................................................................... 21
3.2. Location and description of Klang Valley............................................. 21
3.3. Population and Urbanization ................................................................. 22
3.4. Public Transportation System in Klang Valley ..................................... 24
4. Materials and Methods..................................................................................... 26
4.1. Materials................................................................................................ 26
4.1.1. Data Collection ................................................................................. 26
4.1.2. Secondary Sources............................................................................ 26
4.2. Methodology ......................................................................................... 28
4.3. Transportation Modeling ....................................................................... 28
4.4. Emission Mapping................................................................................. 35
5. Analysis and Results ........................................................................................ 37
5.1. Introduction ........................................................................................... 37
5.2. GIS Analysis.......................................................................................... 37
5.2.1. Identifying Suitable BRT Corridor ................................................... 39

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 5.2.2. Accessibility Analysis ...................................................................... 45
5.3. Car Traffic Modeling............................................................................. 47
5.3.1. Validation of Car Traffic Volume..................................................... 47
5.3.2. Projection from Car Traffic Modeling .............................................. 49
5.3.3. Projection of Car Traffic on BRT corridor ....................................... 51
5.4. Possible Impact of Bus Rapid Transit ................................................... 52
5.4.1. Introduction ...................................................................................... 52
5.4.2. Possible Impact to Car Traffic .......................................................... 52
5.4.3. Possible Impact to Vehicle Emission................................................ 55
5.4.4. Air Pollution Map Generated from Car Traffic in 2010 ................... 55
5.4.5. Benefit and Cost Analysis of BRT System....................................... 58
6. Conclusion ....................................................................................................... 61
6.1. Limitation of Study................................................................................ 61
6.1.1. Sensitivity Analysis .......................................................................... 61
6.1.2. Data Preparation for Traffic Modeling ............................................. 61
6.2. Conclusion............................................................................................. 61

iv
List of figures

Figure 1-1 Speed of Urbanization in Selected Countries............................................ 2

Figure 1-2 Private Vehicle Registered in Malaysia .................................................... 4
Figure 1-3 General Research Design .......................................................................... 6
Figure 1-4 Overall Research Methodology ................................................................ 8
Figure 1-5 GIS Analysis Methodology....................................................................... 9
Figure 1-6 Transport Modeling Methodology .......................................................... 10
Figure 1-7 Emission Mapping Methodology............................................................ 11
Figure 2-1 Traditional Four-Step Models................................................................. 13
Figure 2-2 Examples of Buffered Line, Points and Multiple Rings Buffer .............. 16
Figure 2-3 The Characteristics of Different Tyre-Based Public Transportation....... 17
Figure 2-4 Bus Rapid Transit in Bogota, Colombia ................................................. 18
Figure 2-5 Distribution of CO Emission Load from Motor Vehicles 2006 .............. 20
Figure 3-1 Map of Malaysia ..................................................................................... 21
Figure 3-2 Administrative Boundaries in Klang Valley ........................................... 22
Figure 3-3 Urbanization Pattern in Klang Valley 1988-1999................................... 24
Figure 3-4 Stated Preference to using public modes in accordance with time saving
.................................................................................................................................. 25
Figure 4-1 Traditional Four-Step Model .................................................................. 29
Figure 4-2 Travel Time Function ............................................................................. 33
Figure 5-1 Suitable Corridors for BRT System ........................................................ 39
Figure 5-2 Annual Total Traffic Volume from Selected Station from 1996-2005 ... 41
Figure 5-3 Origin and Destination Car Trips for district of Klang, Petaling and Kuala
Lumpur in 2010 ........................................................................................................ 42
Figure 5-4 Landuse within Five Kilometer of BRT Corridor................................... 43
Figure 5-5 Percentage of Landuse Classification within 5 km Buffer...................... 43
Figure 5-6 Collection of Suitable Sites for Transit Zone in Klang Valley ............... 44
Figure 5-7 Accessibility of Service Area within five kilometer from BRT Station.. 45
Figure 5-8 Proximity to Bus Stop within Walking Distance .................................... 46
Figure 5-9 Selected Traffic Count Station along BRT Corridor............................... 47
Figure 5-10 Observed and Modeled Traffic Volume on Selected Traffic Station.... 48
Figure 5-11 Car Traffic Volume for Selected Traffic Station .................................. 49
Figure 5-12 Result of Car Traffic in 2010 for Klang Valley .................................... 50
Figure 5-13 Result of Car Traffic on BRT Corridor................................................. 51
Figure 5-14 Comparison of Car Traffic Volume in 2010 ......................................... 53
Figure 5-15 Projection of Impact to Car Traffic Volume on Federal Highway in
2010 with BRT System............................................................................................. 54
Figure 5-16 Emission Map of Carbon Monoxide on Road Network........................ 56

v
Figure 5-17 Result from Reduction of Carbon Monoxide Emission with BRT
System ...................................................................................................................... 57
Figure 5-18 Benefit Cost Ratio of Corridor Segment ............................................... 60

vi
List of tables

Table 1-1 Change in Modal Composition in Klang Valley between 1985 and 1997 . 5
Table 2-1 Capital Cost for Different Mass Rapid Transit Systems .......................... 18
Table 3-1 Population and Forecast for year 2005 to 2010 ('000).............................. 23
Table 4-1 Carbon Monoxide Load Factor for Petrol Car.......................................... 35
Table 5-1 Result of Car Trips from OD Matrix for year 2010 ................................. 41
Table 5-2 Summary of Accessibility Analysis ......................................................... 47
Table 5-3 Statistical Relationship between Observed and Modeled Car Traffic
Volume for year 2005............................................................................................... 48
Table 5-4 Car Traffic Volume from Selected Count Station .................................... 53
Table 5-5 Potential CO Emission Saving on BRT Corridor..................................... 55
Table 5-6 Benefit Analysis of Corridor Length........................................................ 58
Table 5-7 Cost Analysis of Corridor Length ............................................................ 59

vii
 1. Introduction

Bus Rapid Transit has emerged as an economically beneficial mass rapid transit with
significant potential in developing cities. Indonesia is running its own busway called
TransJakarta BRT. Bangkok is expected to open five BRT routes by September
2008 and Delhi government has granted approval for six new BRT corridors for
operation by December 2009. Many other cities in Asia announced plans for
introducing BRT corridors following popular beliefs that it can reduce congestion,
benefit of ridership, improve air quality and demonstrates relatively low capital cost
per mile of investment (Federal Transit Administration 2004; Institute for
Transportation & Development Policy 2007). Despite the current BRT development,
the performance and potential impacts of BRT system have hardly been researched.
The main motivation of this research is to examine the potential impact of a BRT
corridor on air quality and as well as to car traffic.

1.1. Urbanization and Mobility

General Introduction
The twentieth century has witnessed the rapid urbanisation of the worlds
population. The United Nations estimates that by 2025, more than half of the
developing world population will be living in cities. In the most developed region of
the world, urbanisation is well advanced where almost three quarters of the
population lived in urban settlements in 2005 (United Nations 2005). Remarkably in
most developing countries, car ownership rates grow faster than population or
income. In developing countries in Asia, this is becoming major problem and is
expected to become more serious as these cities are among the largest and most
populated area in the region. Higher income has led to increased vehicle ownership
and rising consumption of transport goods, and fast construction of new
infrastructure which in turn encouraged generation of additional vehicular traffic.
In developing countries, the increasing use of the car seems to attach to the
psychological views of the car as symbol of freedom, status and power and
these belief is stressing the traffic condition in the city (Vasconcellos 1997). It is a
common viewpoint that people values personal car as fulfilling one of the
deficiency needs. According to Maslow (Maslow 1943), deficiency needs refer to
the desires that the individual does not feel anything if they are met, but feels
anxious if they are not met. One of such deficiency needs is esteem needs, which

1
is met by fulfilling self esteem, confidence, respect from others and achievement in
life. Human psychological views towards having and driving car have prolonged to
aggravate the environmental problem in developing countries especially in Asia
region. Congestion will result in more emission and further degrade the environment
with even more hazardous gases release to the atmosphere.

Problems Associated with Urban Growth

In Asia, many developing countries are experiencing exceptional rate of
urbanization compared to Europe or United States (US). Figure 1-1 shows the years
taken by selected countries to increase their urbanization rate. It took about 80 years
for Europe and 60 years for US to increase urbanization rate from 20% to 50% of
total population (Morichi 2005). Whereas in the case of Asian countries, the
corresponding periods were much shorter. Based on the graph, Japan, Malaysia,
Indonesia and Korea took 42, 40, 32 and 25 years respectively for the same level of
increase in the urbanization rate. Such a rapid urbanization can be considered as
outcome of high economic growth in Asian developing countries.

Figure 1-1 Speed of Urbanization in Selected Countries

Source: Adapted from Morichi (2005)

When comparing level of motorization between Asian countries, it must be
recognised that each differ greatly in economic, social and spatial characteristics.
Examining explicitly into income and population features can briefly explain the
characteristics and differences in level of motorization. The World Bank (2007)
distinguishes level of motorization between countries by looking at income level and
relates it to vehicle ownership and road infrastructure. In developing countries,

2
vehicle ownership is primarily dependent on income. World Bank claimed though,
while vehicle ownership is primarily dependent on income, the growth of urban road
space with income is likely to be slower than that of traffic volume with income.
Secondly, population growth rates can as well provide indication on level of
motorization. Rapidly growing cities have above average car ownership rates in
relation to income levels and below average proportions of land space devoted for
traffic movement. Together, these may aggravate congestion in these cities.
Therefore income level and population growth rates can provide explanation of
transport differences between Asian countries.
In fast growing cities, traffic congestion reduces average speed and increases vehicle
emission. The World Bank estimates that by increasing the average speed in city
traffic from 10 kilometers per hour (km/h) to 20 km/h could cut Carbon Monoxide
(CO) emissions by nearly 40 percent (The World Bank 2007). Nevertheless, the
suggestion will result in further congestion by greater car use in the long run.
Instead, the congestion problems need to be solved in way of adaptation of new
technologies or systems that can reduce unit emission rates without generating extra
traffic to negate the benefit. Through proper public transportation planning, the new
system can encourage greater public usage and reduce congestion of private vehicle.
One of the strategies in promoting public mode is to improve efficiency in public
transportation. Efficiency can be defined in many ways but the strategy must be
concerned not only with keeping costs down but also to maximise the number of
beneficiaries. Keeping the cost down will encourage the poor to use public
transportation with confidence and comfort. When adequate public transportation is
not available, usually the rich will continue to use private car while the relatively
poor will shift first to motorcycles, then to taxis, and ultimately to inexpensive cars
as their incomes increase. Taking example from India, the Peoples Car dubbed
Tata Nano will favour mostly the lower income group. In shorter term, the negative
side of affordable mobility will make the congestion on the road even worst.
Therefore, it is important to carefully examine the impact of new transportation
system because failure will hamper transportation strategies and may well bring
severe consequences to traffic congestion, undesirable urban structure, adverse
human and environmental impacts and wasteful use of resources (Beimborn,
Kennedy et al. 1996).

3
1.2. Statement of the Problems
This section identifies urban transportation issues in Klang Valley due to its rapid
development and high population growth. Attributable to the geographical location,
topology, urban planning and development, these issues are obviously peculiar and
specific only to this region, but can be found common to many cities in developing
Asian countries. The three major problems in urban transportation are traffic
congestion, over reliance on private vehicle and declining public modal split. These
problems will be explained in the next section to allow better understanding in the
development of this research.
Problem on transportation network in Klang Valley intensifies when the highway
and road are overburden with private vehicles especially cars and motorcycles. In a
most recent urban transportation study in Klang Valley reported that the traffic
volume at selected screenline locations is in the range of 26,216 to 361,783 number
of vehicles (Perunding Bersatu 2005). This study estimated that in year 2000, the
average number of cars per household is 1.7 cars and nearly 64% of working
populations travel by car. The trend of people relying on cars is currently taking toll
on road networks in Klang Valley. Figure 1-2 shows yearly rise of number of new
private vehicles registered from 1996 until 2006. It is interesting to note that the total
number of private vehicles in 2006 represents nearly 46.8 percent of the total
number of vehicle registered in Malaysia (Ministry of Transport 2007). To this
point, private vehicle ownership has increased more rapidly and this growth has
exceeded the capacity of the current road space. The numbers of private vehicles are
expected to increase with loose regulation on automobile ownership and with no
traffic restraining measure from the transport authority.
Figure 1-2 Private Vehicle Registered in Malaysia
600,000

500,000
Number of Unit

400,000
Motorcycle
300,000
Car
200,000

100,000

0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year

Source: (Ministry of Transport 2007)

4
In the past 20 years, modal composition between private and public trip has been
shifted. The patronage of public transport has declined from 34 per cent in 1985 to
20 per cent in 1997 (in table 1-1). Looking at the declining modal split, policy
makers have resorted to rail based public transportation. Their main goal is to lessen
transportation problems and improve the public to private modal split ratio to 30:70
by year 2020.
Table 1-1 Change in Modal Composition in Klang Valley between 1985 and 1997
Mode 1985 1997
Private Mode: Total Total
Motorcycle 0.190 0.237
Car 0.467 0.657 0.566 0.803
Public Mode:
Stage bus /Mini Bus 0.243 0.079
Factory bus /School Bus 0.100 0.102
Rail 0.000 0.343 0.016 0.197
Modal Split 66 : 34 80 : 20
Source: Perunding Bersatu (2005) and JICA (1999)
The planning and development of transportation in Klang Valley is aiming to
encourage public modal shift from overly dependent on private vehicle. The public
transport authority has taken step to improve the public bus services. In 2004, public
bus service is put under sole operation of Rangkaian Pengangkutan Integrasi Deras
Sendirian Berhad (RapidKL) from previous transport operators. Bus services were
improved with new vehicles, schedules and routes to provide an integrated, efficient
and reliable public transport service for the most part of Klang Valley. According to
transport operator, despite the new services, public acceptance is slow as majority of
the public still prefer to use private vehicle for commuting.
Public transport authorities give more preference to rail as the backbone for public
transport services in the Klang Valley. Public bus services were improved only as
support to the urban rail system. There is no plan or initiative to turn public bus
services into modern and efficient mode of travel. There is new development of
rapid transit in Western Europe, United States, South America and some parts of
Asia. It is called the Bus Rapid Transit or BRT which has emerged as an advanced
and innovative mass rapid transit solution for urban transportation.

5
The BRT is increasingly being accepted as an inventive way of transporting mass
commuters with newer bus technology, separate right-of-way, clean and comfortable
stations, efficient fare collection system and others distinct features (Institute for
Transportation & Development Policy 2007). The system is claimed to deliver fast,
comfortable and cost-effective solutions for urban mobility and it is an ideal solution
for developing cities to ease its congestion problem. It is likely to impact car users in
terms of their motivation to change travel mode and renew people perception
towards public transportation.
Solving urban transportation problems is a complex task and involves a large
number of steps. The use of transportation modeling in this research facilitate
analysis on the potential impact of such system on the environment which in this
case, the air quality. Models are important because transportation plans and
investments are based on projections about future travel pattern. Models are used to
estimate the number of trips that will be made for a given land use and transportation
system at some future year. The general research design (figure 1-3) starts with the
possible impact of BRT routing and accessibility analysis in Geographical
Information System (GIS). After that, car traffic modeling will estimate number of
trips that will be made in study area and the results from car traffic will be quantified
(numbers of car and vehicle emission). Then, the impact of BRT system will be
assessed in term of car traffic emission and benefit to air quality with emission
maps. In every urban transportation study, it is important to justify the cost of new
infrastructure and relate the benefit it can bring to air quality. As a final point, this
research will examine the benefit to cost ratio of BRT corridor to air quality using
earlier analyses.

Figure 1-3 General Research Design

6
1.3. Objectives and Sub-objectives
The main objective is to model the potential impact of bus rapid transit on air
quality. The impact of the bus system is examined on the impact to car traffic, CO
emission and the benefit of each kilometer to the air quality.
More specific objectives are:
1. To establish mutual impact of BRT routing on planning and accessibility.
2. To examine the possible impact of BRT to traffic on the corridor.
3. To examine the possible impact of BRT to vehicle emission.
4. To relate the benefit and cost of BRT system to environment.

1.4. Research Questions

For each specific objective, research questions are formulated as below:
1. To establish mutual impact of BRT routing on planning and accessibility
What is suitable route for a BRT system?
What is the justification for selected corridor?
What is serviceable area coverage of BRT station?
What is the accessibility to population for a BRT corridor?
2. To examine the possible impact of BRT to traffic on the corridor
What is the traffic projection on the selected corridor?
What is possible impact of BRT system to car traffic?
What is the extent of change to car traffic volume along this corridor?
3. To examine the possible impact of BRT to vehicle emission
What is possible impact of BRT system to vehicle emission?
What is the extent of change to vehicle emission along this corridor?
What is the potential emission saving to the environment?
4. To relate the benefit and cost of BRT system to environment
What is the benefit resulting from a BRT system?
What is the capital cost for a BRT system?
Can additional kilometer of BRT bring benefit to the air quality?

7
1.5. Research Method
The overall methodology of this research is illustrated in Figure 1-4 below. The
research problems are identified through investigation of urban transportation
development in the study area. Then the research problems are evaluated and the key
theories are conceptualized by literature review. Through research problems, the
main objectives together with specific sub-objectives are formulated. Research
objectives guided the development of research questions in this research. The
methodology is developed from both disciplines of GIS and transportation and the
results are merged into emission analysis for study area. The general research design
from figure 1-3 is incorporated into the overall methodology. It is straightforward
and can be replicated for different scenario. The methodologies for GIS Analysis
method (A), Car Traffic Modeling (B) and Emission Mapping (C) will be explained
further in the next section.
Figure 1-4 Overall Research Methodology

8
1.5.1. GIS Analysis
GIS analysis make use spatial data that has been developed by local planning
agency. Primarily three elements from geodatabase are used in the GIS analysis. The
elements are land use, administrative and transportation as shown in figure 1-5. The
output expected from this analysis is results of service area, accessibility and buffer
analysis on the selected BRT corridor. The full analysis will be explained in Chapter
5 of this research.
Figure 1-5 GIS Analysis Methodology

1.5.2. Car Traffic Modeling

Car traffic modeling in figure 1-6 utilised transportation elements from the same
geodatabase. First of all, the models require special scripting and manual inspection
to ensure spatial data is imported correctly. Centroids, nodes, links and traffic
analysis zones are the important attributes for the network and need to be set prior to
analysis. The traditional Four Step Model is incorporated into the methodology with
the use of special transport modeling software. The output from transport modeling
is the number of car trip between each origin and destination in the Klang Valley
which will be used in the next analysis (Total Car Trips [D]).

9
Figure 1-6 Transport Modeling Methodology

10
1.5.3. Emission Mapping
Figure 1-7 represents emission mapping methodology progressing from GIS analysis
and car traffic modeling in the two previous sections. The result of Total Car Trips
[D] derived from figure 1-6 will be used as input data to create map of line sources.
CO emission factor is applied from specific vehicle emission database (the
description of the database is explained later in section 4.2.2). Then CO emission is
calculated based on car trips on each link to generate CO emission map.
Subsequently, analysis is made between car emission with and without BRT system
on the corridor.
Figure 1-7 Emission Mapping Methodology

11
1.6. Thesis Structure

Chapter 1 Introduction
Briefly presents the background for the research, identifies research problems,
defines the objectives and questions and shows the general overview how the
research aims to achieve the objectives.

Chapter 2 Literature Review

Second chapter explains the key concepts for this research and conceptualize based
on related literatures. Further insights into specific model used in methodology to
aid understanding of readers.

Chapter 3 Study Area Description

The third chapter gives general description of the study area based on location,
population, transportation and urbanization characteristics.

Chapter 4 Materials and Methods

The fourth chapter briefly describes materials used in research. This chapter also
discusses the methodologies and specific processes.

Chapter 5 Analysis and Results

The fifth chapter presents results and give details on analysis for further discussion
in the next chapter.

Chapter 6 Conclusion
The last chapter presents the limitations of study and conclusion of this research.

12
 2. Literature Review

2.1. Introduction
In this research, proper understanding of urban transportation and GIS are required
to answer research questions. This chapter will give descriptions on important
element on the subject to aid development of this research. Modeling the BRT
system help to establish and examine the potential impact it has on the air quality.
The impact of the bus system is examined on the car traffic, CO emission and the
benefit to the environment.

2.2. Traditional Four-Step Transportation Models

Transportation models are used to estimate the number of trips that will be generated
for a given land use and type of transportation system in the future. It describes the
flow of traffic between locations to allow for forecasting and analyzing future
passenger and/or freight movement (Beimborn et al., 1996). Early literature on
transport modeling was dominated by the four-step approach (Bureau of Transport
Economics 1998). The model was resulted from practice in 1960s and has remained
unchanged even with the improvement in modeling techniques and the advancement
of computing technology (Mark 2007). The four-step transportation model is shown
in figure 2-1. The model approaches the travel demand analysis with four-step
methods comprised of trip generation, trip distribution, modal split and trip
assignment.

Figure 2-1 Traditional Four-Step Models

Source: (Bureau of Transport Economics 1998)

13
Travel demand model attempts to estimate travel pattern from multitude of
individuals making choices about whether to travel (trip generation), where to travel,
(trip distribution), which mode to use (modal split) and which route to use (trip
assignment). The modeling process begins with generating an estimate of the
amount of trips expected in the urban system usually at the zonal level or traffic
analysis zones (TAZ). Trip generation attempts to predict the number of trip
produced and attracted to each TAZ.
The second sub-model is referred as trip distribution. It determines flows and
allocates the trips generated in origin zones to destinations in the study area and the
travel cost between them. The third sub-model is modal split. Here trips are
apportioned to various modes of transport based on travel cost and preferences.
The four-step modeling process finishes with a trip assignment module that takes
estimated trips that have been generated, distributed, and sorted by mode, and loads
them onto various segments of the transport network. Transport simulation usually
proceeds sequentially amongst these four stages in the order in which they are
described above. The output from each step served as an input to the next step of the
process. However in reality, travel decisions are rarely taken in this sequence but
rather depends on the form of utility function assumed to governed travel choices
(Mark 2007).
Traditional urban transport modeling requires an extensive range of data, most of it
is related to traffic zones, transportation network, trip factors and socio economic
interaction. Data availability is an important factor when considering the trade-off
between fulfilling the data requirement and the benefit it may offer (Henscher,
Button et al. 2004). Data available for this research is considered valuable to achieve
the main objective and answer the research questions. Among the major types of
variables for data used in this research are discussed by Rodrigue et al. (2006) and
have been divided into five categories:
Zoning design- Spatial land use map is useful to represent distinctive land use
pattern such as residential, industrial, agriculture and etc. In principle land use
information will facilitate generation of a smaller zone called TAZ. These zones
usually have homogeneous activities and should conform to census, collective areas
(postal code) or physical boundary where possible.
Transportation network- It is a representation of the structure and geometry of
transportation network mainly composed of links, nodes, turns and junctions.
Transport network are fundamental element in providing accessibility and
movements along with origin-destination matrices.

14
Trip generation factors- These factors estimate the number of trips, people, freight,
that each level of economic activity generates. Usually trip maker consider element
of income, mode preference and consumption level for making their journey. Most
of the information is gathered using survey or inferred from observation.
Employment and workplaces- They account for significant inducement effect over
transportation modeling since employment is consider as exogenous factor for trip
generation and attraction. Travelling is a direct outcome of the number of jobs from
workplaces in zones.
Population and housing- They act as generator of trip as people and household
account for the origin of trips making. There are diverse ranges of income, standard
of living, housing condition, individual preference that will have effect on trip
generation process.
The model is employed in this research because it is commonly known method and
widely accepted in urban transport planning. Furthermore, the modeling software
used the basic principles from the traditional four step model.

2.3. Geographical Information System

There are various GIS analyses available to help answer research oriented questions
and solve complex planning issues. In this research, BRT routing is planned to
ensure it serves maximum beneficiaries and have an optimum route. The relevant
GIS terms will be discussed in the next section to understand how research questions
are answered in the context of typical GIS application. Understanding how things
happen and the extent of it facilitate us in making decision and plan for future.

Accessibility
Accessibility is a key element to transport geography since it describes the mobility
of either people or goods. Rodrigue et al. (2006) defined accessibility as the
measure of capacity of a location to be reached by or to reach different locations.
Since accessibility is dominantly the outcome of transportation activities, it usually
presents the most significant influence of transportation on location. In ArcGIS
Network Analyst, accessibility can be measured in term of travel time, distance or
any other impedance on the network (ESRI 2006). The structure of transportation
network and capacity are the key elements in determination of accessibility.
Planning the location of future BRT station is crucial to ensure suitability of
locations and optimum operational capacity can be achieved. Accessibility measure
can be used to determine percentage of population which are within specific travel
range and coverage for a potential BRT station. Accessibility analysis can be

15
achieved using Service Area function. Service Area computed by Network Analyst
can identify the accessible streets within certain distance using network features.
Service area can also locate what is alongside the accessible streets for example
nearest bus stop, hospital or supermarket.

Proximity and Buffer

In ArcGIS, proximity toolset contains tools that are used to determine the proximity
of spatial features within a feature class or between two feature classes (ESRI 2006).
These tools identify features that are closest to one another, calculate the distances
around them, and calculate distances between them. In the analysis, buffer is used to
find area served by bus stops within Service Area. Figure 2-2 illustrates some
examples of buffer output with GIS. The tools are based on Euclidean distance
which measure distances from the centre of source cells to the centre of destination
cells. Euclidean distance is straight-line distance or distance measured "as the crow
flies".

Figure 2-2 Examples of Buffered Line, Points and Multiple Rings Buffer

Source: (ESRI 2006)

2.4. Bus Rapid Transit

Buses are often regarded as transport mode of choice for the poor and highly pollute.
Following pioneering experiences of a new bus system in Curitiba and So Paulo,
Brazil, and Bogot, Colombia, bus-based rapid transit mode has emerged as a great
hope for cities interested in high-quality public transport services at a moderate level
of capital and operating costs (Institute for Transportation & Development Policy
2007). BRT is a flexible, rubber-tired rapid-transit mode that combines stations,
vehicles, services, running ways, and Intelligent Transportation System (ITS)
elements into an integrated system with a strong positive identity that evokes a
unique image (Levinson 2003). There are wide varieties of definition of BRT
currently in operation and has been characterized by ITDP in Figure 2-3 below.

16
Figure 2-3 The Characteristics of Different Tyre-Based Public Transportation

Source: BRT Planning Guide, ITDP (2007)

BRT systems are often noted for the ease of adaptation to constraints of specific sites
or roads. According to Levinson (2003), transit agencies that have implemented
BRT systems reported that it has lower development costs and greater operating
flexibility compared to other mass rapid transit. It can be easily integrated into the
existing transport network and be part of the citys structure. Bus Rapid Transit
could help to attract commuters from private vehicles and contribute to a reduction
in traffic congestion on the corridor where it is implemented.
As illustrated in Figure 2-4, BRT system in Bogota is operated in a closed system
which implies that the corridor access is limited to a prescribed set of operators and
restricted number of vehicles (Institute for Transportation & Development Policy
2007). The purpose is to eliminate busway congestion particularly at stations and
intersections. Larger vehicle of high capacity buses were used to serve large
population density on a main corridor.

17
Figure 2-4 Bus Rapid Transit in Bogota, Colombia

Source: BRT Planning Guide, ITDP (2007)

BRTs infrastructure costs are relatively affordable and low compared to light rail
transit, tram, monorail or metro rail system. Comparison between costs of different
mass rapid transit has been summarised from ITDP and World Bank in Table 2-1.
BRT is the least expensive form of mass rapid transit which has extensively
developed in South America. The cost for Bogotas BRT system is US$5.3 million
per kilometer for a 40 kilometer corridor. This is only a fraction of cost per
kilometer if we compare to a light rail transit, monorail or metro system as shown in
Table 2-1.

Table 2-1 Capital Cost for Different Mass Rapid Transit Systems
City Type of System Length Cost per km
(km) (US$ million/km)
Kuala Lumpur (PUTRA) Light Rail Transit 29.0 50.0
Bangkok (BTS) Light Rail Transit 23.7 72.5
Los Angeles Light Rail Transit 23.0 37.8
Kuala Lumpur Monorail Monorail 8.6 38.1
Bangkok MRTA Metro rail 20.0 142.9
Shanghai Metro Metro rail 87.2 62.0
Caracas (Line 4) Metro rail 12.0 90.3
Tunisia Tram 30.0 13.3
San Diego Rail Trolley 75.0 17.2
Porto Alegre Bus rapid transit 27.0 1.0

18
Curitiba Bus rapid transit 57.0 2.5
Bogota (Phase 1) Bus rapid transit 40.0 5.3

Source: ITDP (2007) and World Bank (2007)

Therefore it is important for this research to examine the impact of BRT system to
validate various claims on benefit such as reducing congestion and improving air
quality.

2.5. Transport Related Emission

The relationship between the environment and transportation is strong. Atmospheric
emissions from pollutants produced by transportation especially by the internal
combustion engine are associated with air pollution, acid rain and the potential of
global warming. In urban regions, about 50 percent of all air pollution originates
from vehicle traffic (Rodrigue, Comtois et al. 2006). With rapid expansion of the
economy, concerns over its environmental impacts are increasing. The most
important impacts of transport on the environment relate to climate change, air
quality, noise, water quality, soil quality and biodiversity.
In developing countries, an estimated 0.5 million to 1.0 million people die
prematurely each year as a result of respiratory and other illnesses caused by
exposure to urban air pollution (United Nations 2005). Most vehicle emissions are
potentially damaging to human health but their intensity and impacts differ greatly
between pollutants and between regions. In Klang Valley, the contributing pollutant
to health impacts has been studied by group of researchers from Universiti
Kebangsaan Malaysia and Ministry of Health in 2004. They focussed the study on
relationship between mean daily concentration of air pollutants and associated risk
of respiratory and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality at 4 hospitals. Their
research concluded that increment of two major pollutants, namely Particulate
Matter and Carbon Monoxide (CO) have significant relative risk outcome for
respiratory and cardiovascular morbidity (Jamal 2004). In this research, CO is
considered as the main pollutant because it is the source of vehicle pollutant and has
major health effect in Klang Valley.
CO is a colourless, odourless and at high concentration, a poisonous gas. It is formed
when the carbon present in fuel is not burnt completely and emitted mainly from
motor vehicle exhaust. Other sources of CO emission include industrial processes
and open burning activities. It can easily enter the bloodstream through the lungs and
reduces oxygen delivery to organs and tissues. The health threat from exposure to
CO is most serious to people who suffer from cardiovascular diseases. Visual

19
impairment, reduced work capability and poor learning ability are among the health
effects associated with high exposure to CO.
Figure 2-5 shows that passenger cars are the major contributor of CO in Klang
Valley. While vans and lorries contributed 35.37%, motorcycles 15.34%, buses
2.04% and taxis 1.90% (Department of Environment Malaysia 2007 (a)).

Figure 2-5 Distribution of CO Emission Load from Motor Vehicles 2006

50.00%
45.35%

40.00% 35.37%
Percentage

30.00%

20.00% 15.34%

10.00%
2.04% 1.90%
0.00%
Cars Van & Lorries M/cycles Buses Taxis
Type

Source: Adapted from (Department of Environment Malaysia 2007 (a))

20
 3. Study Area Description

3.1. Introduction
Malaysia is a federation of thirteen states and three federal territories in Southeast
Asia with a total landmass of 329,749 square km. The capital city is Kuala Lumpur
while Putrajaya is the seat of the federal government. The country is separated into
two regions the Malay Peninsula and Borneo by the South China Sea. Countries near
to Malaysias borders are Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore and Brunei. Located near
the equator, the weather is characterized by tropical climate.

Figure 3-1 Map of Malaysia

Since its independence, Malaysia's economic record has been exceptional. Real
gross domestic product (GDP) grew by an average of 6.5% per year from 1957 to
2005 (Economic Planning Unit 2006). The economy experienced sustained rapid
growth averaging almost 8% annually. Malaysia today is a middle-income country
with a multi-sector economy based on services and manufacturing. At present,
Malaysia is one of the largest exporters of semiconductor devices, electrical goods,
and information and communication technology products.

3.2. Location and description of Klang Valley

Klang Valley is situated within the drainage basins of the Klang and Gombak
Rivers, which run from the Main Range in the east and northeast to the Straits of
Malacca to the west. It has an area of 2,832 square km with five administrative
districts. The city of Kuala Lumpur is in the centre; the towns of Petaling Jaya and
Shah Alam (both in Petaling district) and Klang to the west; the township of
Gombak to the north; and the District of Hulu Langat to the south (Figure 3-2).

21
Figure 3-2 Administrative Boundaries in Klang Valley

The population in this area was more than 4.5 millions in 2000, with 1.3 million
concentrated in Kuala Lumpur, followed by Petaling (1.1 million), Hulu Langat
(0.86 million), Klang (0.64 million) and Gombak (0.54 million) (Department of
Statistic Malaysia 2007). Area in central part of Klang Valley is growing rapidly.
Basically, this is the main commercial and administrative centres. About 20 percent
of the nations population live within Klang Valley in year 2000 and the number are
expected to grow with rapid expansion of residential and industrial especially in
district of Petaling and Klang.

3.3. Population and Urbanization

Malaysias population in 2007 is estimated at 27.6 million with an average
population growth rate of 2.5% (Economic Planning Unit 2006). According to
census in 2000, the total population of Malaysia 23.27 million compared to 18.38
million in 1991 thus giving an average annual population growth rate of 2.6% over
the 1991-2000 periods. Meanwhile, Klang Valley is the major conurbation area in
the country. It had a total population of 4.5 million as of 2000 and is projected to
grow until 7.5 million in 2020 (Perunding Bersatu 2005).

22
Table 3-1 show the population statistic in from 1980 to 2000. The forecasted
population number was adapted from the related urban transportation study. From
the total population in the Klang Valley of about 5.5 million forecasted in 2010,
Kuala Lumpur would account for 27%, Petaling 26%, Hulu Langat 18%, Klang 16%
and Gombak 13%.

Table 3-1 Population and Forecast for year 2005 to 2010 ('000)
AAGR
District 1980* 1991* 2000* 2005 2007 2010
(%)
Kuala
978.3 1,262.1 1,305.8 1,396 1,435 1,493 1.5
Lumpur
Gombak 176.1 373.5 537.5 651 677 716 2.2
Hulu
189.0 438.5 864.5 908 939 987 1.9
Langat
Petaling 385.5 670.6 1,184.1 1,333 1,390 1,476 2.4
Klang 298.3 430.6 643.4 780 829 902 3.7
Total 2,027.2 3,175.3 4,535.4 5,068 5,270 5,573 2.2

Source: * Department of Statistic and Annual Average Growth Rate (AAGR) is for
2000-2020 (Perunding Bersatu, 2005)
Districts of Petaling and Kuala Lumpur are the most populated region in Klang
Valley and both districts are projected to reach 3 millions inhabitants by 2010. The
population and employment largely concentrated in district of Petaling where more
people prefer to live and work (Perunding Bersatu 2005).

23
Urban population sprawl can be seen from Figure 3-3 where urban sprawl initially
originated from Kuala Lumpur, Petaling, Subang Jaya, Klang and Selayang, These
areas have expanded into new conurbation as far as 10 km from 1988 until 1999.
The most rapid urban expansion can be seen in district of Petaling, Kuala Lumpur
and Klang.

Figure 3-3 Urbanization Pattern in Klang Valley 1988-1999

3.4. Public Transportation System in Klang Valley

Klang Valley has substantial road, rail and public transportation infrastructure
compared to other Asian cities. The rail-based transit system consists of three light-
rail transit (LRT) lines, one monorail and one intercity rail system consisting of two
lines. There are several private bus operators operating in Kuala Lumpur and one
public bus operator (RapidKL). Private bus operators serve medium to long distance
journey from the city centre while RapidKL concentrates on Klang Valley area.
The development of rail transportation started somewhat late for a big metropolitan
city. Only in 1995, the intercity rail began operating linking Kuala Lumpur with
major cities to the north (Rawang), South (Seremban) and West (Klang). In 1996,
the countrys first LRT (STAR-LRT) system started running along elevated tracks
above Kuala Lumpurs busy streets. Then, another LRT (PUTRA-LRT) followed in
1998 and the Monorail in 2003. The three rail systems operate mainly inside the city.

24
Despite these modern systems, public transport usage in Kuala Lumpur continued to
drop. A study by JICA (1999) found that only 16% of all trips in Kuala Lumpur
were taken using public transport, one of the lowest among cities in the Asian
region. This may due to various reasons, including the increase in car ownership and
preference for road development, lack of connectivity between the various rail-based
services, and poor bus service.
Surveys from previous urban transportation studies are considered significant for
this research. The result (in figure 3-4) shows that there is a huge gap between their
current commuting time and expected commuting time when using public transport
mode. The graph shows both car and motorcycle users stated preference for using
public transport mode in accordance with the degree of time saving expected from
public modes. Only a 50 percent time saving will effectively persuade them to
become a regular public transport user.

Figure 3-4 Stated Preference to using public modes in accordance with time
saving

Source: JICA (1999)

Perunding Bersatu (2005) also conducted Stated Preference Survey in Klang Valley.
The survey results revealed that private mode commuters in Klang Valley indicated
that faster service (38%), better connection (29%) and cheaper fares (20%) were the
three important factors that most likely to induce them to use public transport if it is
made available. Based on these two surveys, faster public transportation service can
motivate private vehicle users to switch to public transportation.

25
 4. Materials and Methods

4.1. Materials

4.1.1. Data Collection

There is no primary data collected for this research. This research is totally
dependent on secondary data collected by public authorities and consultants.
Government publications especially related to future transportation plans, strategies
and policies area available online from official website of Economic Planning Unit
and City Hall of Kuala Lumpur. Secondary data used is explained in the next
section.

4.1.2. Secondary Sources

4.1.2.1. Study on Integrated Urban Transportation Strategies for
Environmental Improvement in Kuala Lumpur (1999)
This is study conducted by JICA in response to request by Government of Malaysia
to furnish report on integrated urban transport strategies for improved urban
transport environment of Kuala Lumpur metropolitan area, including necessary
policy measures, strategies and a master plan of facility development. The objectives
are to develop efficient urban transport system, to ensure equity in mobility among
all members in the society and provide strategy for environmental betterment. The
Urban Transportation Master Plan is formulated for period up to the year 2020. The
study area covers Kuala Lumpur and its conurbation about 10 kilometers from the
boundary. In respect to planning, this urban transportation study is comprehensive
for whole Klang Valleys planning aspect together with its policy impact on
environment, economic, financial and organisational and institutional arrangement.
The main objectives of this study is to develop efficient urban transportation by
balancing demand and capacity; to ensure equity in mobility among member of
societies; and to promote environmental betterment in policies and future plans. For
this research, important component such as Transport Modeling, Planning
Framework, Transportation Policies and Strategies and Travel Demand Forecast are
referred to. The parameter for traffic demand forecast is described in section 4.2.1
for calculating trip generated for this region. This is the most important input to
build the base year data and subsequently predict future trip generation, trip
distribution and trip assignment. Stated preference survey results from users of
public and private mode are examined to study the preferences and behaviours.

26
4.1.2.2. Klang Valley Integrated Public Transport System and Land Use
Development Plan (2005)
Another urban transportation study was undertaken by Perunding Bersatu. This
study involved a number of expertise involving land use planners, transport
planners, socio economist, GIS experts and academicians from ITC. The main
objectives of this study are to propose new public transport corridors with
considerations to land use and traffic demand management, to propose transit zones
and public transport facilities and to propose an integrated public transport system
for the next 20 years (target year 2020). The main proposal from this study is a rail
based integrated public transport masterplan for Klang Valley. The stakeholder
prefers the development of rail based network as inter and intra city travel in Klang
Valley. Hence this study is developed on a regional transport system based on the
rail network.
Important information referred from this study is the stated preference and spatial
data. The stated preference survey was conducted on selected sample of household
that use private transport to travel. The survey results were on type of improvement
that would likely induce them to shift to public mode. Meanwhile, the spatial data is
prepared by one of planning agency in Ministry of Federal Territory. It is stored in
personal Geodatabase format. The geodatabase was built using ARC/Info and
ARCview consisting data on population, socio economic information, land use and
transportation network. The geodatabase was fully utilised throughout this research
for analysis and results part.

4.1.2.3. Road Traffic Volume

Secondary data for this research comes from the traffic censuses conducted by
Ministry of Work, Malaysia. The traffic data is compiled in CD-ROM for easy
access and reference. Traffic censuses are carried out in month of April and
September on 71 traffic locations in Klang Valley. The census duration is typically a
16 hours (6.00 am 10.00 pm), 7 days manual traffic counting. Directional counts
are carried out in every census for six classes of vehicles.
The latest available road traffic volume is for year 2005. It has complete summary of
previous counts since 1996. Traffic information on volume, speed, capacity, vehicle
types and traffic compositions is also available. Road traffic volume of selected
location is valuable to this research because the actual count is compared with result
from car traffic modeling in section 5.3.1. The validation of actual with modelled
data gives some indication on the accuracy of the modelled to reality.

27
4.2. Methodology
This research is designed to model the potential impact of BRT on air quality.
Modeling the impact on environment will require analysis in both GIS and
transportation to get reliable result on air pollution estimate. Methodologies have
been developed for each analysis to relate output from these two processes into
emission mapping. As a case study, to model BRT system, situation at Klang Valley,
Malaysia has been considered. Earlier urban transportation studies in Klang Valley
have provided greater understanding of transportation problems and description of
transportation characteristic in this region. Furthermore, the availability of spatial
data had influenced methodologies used in this study. The main objective is to
model car traffic flow for Klang Valley and model the impact on air pollution with
introduction of BRT system. The result of number of private car on each link was
used to generate emission map (in ArcGIS) based on Carbon Monoxide emission
load factor per gram per vehicle per kilometer travel. This part will be explained
further in emission mapping methodology. The application of GIS analyses in this
research is to establish the mutual impact of BRT corridor on planning and
accessibility of the mass transit system. The application of GIS will be explained in
Chapter 5: Result and Analysis.

4.3. Transportation Modeling

A model can be defined as a simplified representation of a part of the real world.
Analytical model are used in transport planning. Models are necessary in planning
because it is impossible to conduct experiments on existing and non-exiting
infrastructure and transport modes. Models are used to simplify estimation on
number of trips for a given land use and transportation system for coming future.
The travel demand modelling has been dominated by the traditional four step
transport planning methodology (trip generation, trip distribution, modal split and
traffic assignment). Four steps model provides practical way to represent trip
demand over complex networks with large numbers of competing destinations,
modes and routes.
The transport modeling for this research will be based on methodology developed in
first chapter. The Traditional Four-Step Model (figure 4-1) necessitates the use of
OmniTRANS transport planning software. The software was developed by
OmniTRANS International, Netherlands. It enhances development of theoretical
knowledge about the classic four steps transport modeling in this study. Basic
description of data processing will be explained but limited to important processes
and parameters used. The explanation in later section will follow the four steps

28
modeling process except for Mode Split since for this study the major effect of
BRT on a corridor will be on car traffic loads on major links of the transportation
network. This research attempts to answer research questions related to the effect
only from private car. All processes and formulas were adapted from OmniTRANS
Reference Manual.
Figure 4-1 Traditional Four-Step Model

Checking and Preparing the Network

This is the initial step where study area is divided into a set of spatially separable
contiguous trip generating and trip attracting zones termed as Traffic Analysis Zones
(TAZ). The traffic zoning system was developed by JICA (1999) which consisted of
241 TAZs. These zones were later adopted by transportation and government
planners as the basis for traffic zones ever since. Transport network is represented by
links and nodes and are connected to zones. The transport model will consist of five
classes of road within the study area.
Preparing transport network is crucial because in OmniTRANS, each links need to
be specified according to nodes, length, speed, number of lanes and direction. These
attributes were checked in ArcGIS and several fields were added later (link type,
length and speed). Zone centroids which represent the notional centre of a zone were
added into the network after specifying x and y coordinates for each point using
ArcGIS. Primarily, TAZ, link and centroid shapefiles will be used in OmniTRANS
transport modeling.

29
Useful features in this software is the capability of importing and exporting data
with other planning packages such as Tranplan, TRIPS, Integration, Metanet and
ArcView. The spatial data in shapefiles were imported into the OmniTRANS.
Though, it was required to specify a mapping of the objects and their attributes into
the OmniTRANS database structure by creating a script. A script is a small text file
with specific commands for the software to perform. Predefined scripts are available
and can be edited to suit different modeling requirements. For this purpose, ArcView
script was created and executed to import the links, centroids and TAZs. The
networks were projected using Cartesian Projection system with automatic scaling.
There are only two projection systems supported i.e. Cartesian and Universal
Transverse Mercator (UTM). The author attempted to change the projection system
and spheroid to UTM with Everest (Malaysia 1969) though failed because the
project has no longitude/latitude values. OmniTRANS does not allow the use of
different projection system. After importing, the author noticed that OmniTRANS
automatically creates centroid connectors which link all zone centroids to road
network. That is each centroid connector is connected to link that is located outside
the zones. All the centroid connectors were deleted and new centroids connectors
were created to link centroid to the nearest link in individual zone. Another
important thing to mention is that the road networks are set to left hand rule of the
road as the oncoming traffic in Malaysia is seen coming on the right side. This is set
in network preference setting in OmniTRANS.
The networks structure imported were checked for connectivity. It was done by
using the Path Engine function which basically builds on the screen the shortest
path between any two nodes/zone centroids. This function is useful for testing
networks structure and link connectivity. It also allows user to display paths through
a certain centroid or node, or display several paths starting from the same centroid. If
the same node or centroid is clicked twice, a shortest path tree will be drawn from
this node or centroid to all (other) centroids.

Trip Generation
Prior to performing analysis, we first need to know data of population, information
on socio-economic, trips behaviour, employment activities and some of the variables
and attributes of the transport network in the Klang Valley. Relevant data will be
forecasted for 2005, 2007 and 2010 using future growth rate. Socio economic data
inside GIS shapefile such as resident, work population, household and student were
exported into spreadsheet. Annual Average Growth Rate (AAGR) for 2000-2020
(from Table 3-1) was applied to population according to individual rate. This is to
reflect different growth rate for particular district. Household size of Klang Valley is

30
about 4.5 persons per household. While number of student is calculated based on
estimation that 18.3% is school going population between 5-14 years old. AAGR,
household size and student percentage was adapted from study by Perunding Bersatu
(2005). Working population is forecasted based on 1.9% of AAGR from total
employment sector forecasted in Ninth Malaysian Plan (EPU, 2006). The output is
zonal data for 241 TAZs consisting data of resident, work population, household and
student for 2005, 2007 and 2010 for Klang Valley.
Then, zonal data were used to estimate trip generation. It is the total number of trips
generated or attracted to each zone of the study area. Trip generation was calculated
in worksheet using parameter of different purpose of trip to arrive at total number of
production and generation to and from each zone. The parameters used for different
trip purpose were adapted from JICA (1999) study (refer Appendix 1-A). The
parameters are different for each purpose of trip production and attraction. The Trip
Generation Model is calculated outside OmniTRANS using spreadsheet and later
copied into Combination Trip Ends matrix. The matrix stored all trips with
production and attraction computed for each zones for trip distribution modeling.

Trip Distribution
The next step is to allocate these trips to particular destination so a trip matrix can be
produced. This process is called trip distribution. Before any trip distribution can be
undertaken, the software needs to calculate impedances between all zones and
determine the shortest path between all centroids. Skims matrices are usually
calculated based on distance and travel time. For this purpose, another script was
prepared and executed to calculate impedances based on distance and travel time and
store the results in separate matrices.
Using the trip productions, trip attractions and the impedances between zones, trips
were distributed between each origin and destination zone. The gravity model is
used to perform trip distribution. It is one of the most important spatial interaction
methods.
The doubly constraint gravity model will be applied to perform the trip distribution:
Tij = ai bj Pi Aj Fij ...............................................................................................(1)
where
Tij = number of trips from zones i to zone j,
ai , b j = scaling factors,
Pi = production of zone i,

31
Aj = attraction of zone j,
Fij = accessibility of j from i.
The accessibility Fij are in turn computed using a distribution function:
Fij =1.5exp(-0.05cij)(2)
in which the accessibilities depend on the impedances cij (e.g. distance or travel
time) between zones i and j; the larger the impedance, the lower the accessibility.
This function is called Exponential Distribution function. Finally the doubly
constraint gravity model requires that both predicted outflows from origin and
destinations to match observed totals, which in this case trip totals are balanced
towards productions. Trip distribution is executed by executing script using the
productions, attractions, a skim matrix and Exponential Distribution function. The
resulting origin-destination matrix is stored in matrix cube of 241 x 241 zones.

Trip Assignment
The last stage in classical model requires the assignment of the trips by each mode to
their corresponding networks. Traffic assignment basically performs the route choice
on the network for all trips between each origin and destination pair. Trips are
loaded onto the network using Volume Averaging methods. In Volume Averaging
assignment, volumes are assigned to a network in an iterative process. Volume is
calculated as a linear combination of the volume found in the previous iteration and
the volume added by means of an all-or-nothing assignment performed in the current
iteration. This process terminates when the maximum number of 10 iterations has
been reached. The author set the maximum iterations at 10 in order to save time for
computation on trip assignment.
The capacity-restrained assignment methods can be extended in OmniTRANS by
taking into account link delays. Based on a capacity restrained traffic assignment,
the link flows are influenced by existing travel times and respective link capacity.
OmniTRANS performed this assignment using an iterative process by which trips
are loaded onto the network. At the same time, the link travel times are adjusted
according to the assignment volume and capacity. The relationship between volume
of traffic and resulting travel time is explained with a Travel Time Function. The
objective of applying capacity effect is to achieve a network wide balance or
equilibrium between link flows and travel time together taking into consideration the
network capacity.
Travel Time Function (figure 4-2) defines the relationship between the volume of
traffic on a link and the resulting travel time. As general rule, travel time increases

32
as traffic builds up. Link capacity is seen as contributing factor. If a link is almost
full to capacity, travel time will increase more rapidly than in a situation where there
is sufficient link capacity left. The BPR function is developed by the American
Bureau of Public Roads and incorporated into OmniTRANS. It defines the
relationship with the following equation:
T = T0 ( 1 + (V/Q))..(3)
where:
T = travel time
V = volume
Q = capacity
T0 = free-flow travel time
and = function parameters
In short, T0 represents a base travel time which is then factored to give a new travel
time for a given link. If =0.5, delays will occur only if the link is close to
approaching full capacity (main highways). If =2.0 significant delays will occur
well before full capacity is reached (residential roads). The parameter is usually
equal to 4.0. In this modeling, each link type was set to different function
parameters (Highway; = 2.0, Primary Distributor; = 1.0, District Distributor and
Minor Road; = 1.5 and Local Distributor; = 2.0).

Figure 4-2 Travel Time Function

Source American Bureau of Public Roads (OmniTRANS Manual)

The trip assignment is executed by executing script specifying Volume Averaging
assignment method and Travel Time Function for each link type. The output of trip

33
assignment showed routes that all trips were assigned and the numbers of cars on
each link. With trip assignment and the use of previous step, we can obtain realistic
estimates on effects of BRT system to the selected corridor. Technically, the BRT
will have a separate runway on a three lanes road. This will drastically reduce the
available lane for mixed traffic and as well the road capacity. The Travel Time
Function will be applied to examine the possible effect of BRT to car users in
respect of capacity restraint and travelling time. This methodology will examine the
effect to private transport users on the selected corridor and adjoining road network
in a 24 hours traffic demand modeling.

34
4.4. Emission Mapping
One of the sub-objectives of this research is to examine the extent of Carbon
Monoxide (CO) emission from car traffic. CO is the result of incomplete fuel
combustion and source of vehicle pollutant. Carbon Monoxide is largely emitted by
passenger cars which accounted for 45.35% from the total emission from mobile
sources in Malaysia (Department of Environment Malaysia 2007 (b)). At present,
there is lack of emission testing facilities for mobile sources in Malaysia.
Experimental set up (consisting of a chassis dynamometer unit) for determination of
emission factors is expensive and only available at PROTON factory. PROTON is
the national car manufacturer in Malaysia. Engineers have tested emissions factors
of Carbon Monoxide, Hydrocarbon and Nitrogen Oxides using PROTONs car
under standard driving cycles (University Malaya Consultancy Unit 2003).
Nevertheless, the emission load factor recorded does not represent emission from
various car manufacturer and different road conditions. The author discovered a
comprehensive emission load database prepared by the Netherlands Organisation for
Applied Scientific Research with 12,000 emission testing on various road
conditions, vehicle types and age (Statistics Netherland 2007). The database should
provide accurate CO emission load factor for this research.
The methodology in emission mapping requires estimation from line sources.
Emissions from line sources are the results of vehicles travelling on road. The
process of producing emission map in this research was accomplished by generating
rasterized maps of line sources and CO emission load factor. Then the CO emission
load factors from the database are used to estimate emission from car traffic on
different road. Car emission from model year 2000 was selected as load factor for
calculating emission because Malaysia is currently adapting Euro 2 technology since
year 2000 (University Malaya Consultancy Unit 2003; Asian Development Bank
2006). The CO emission load factor for petrol car is illustrated in table 4-1 with car
model year and emission for three road conditions.
Table 4-1 Carbon Monoxide Load Factor for Petrol Car
built-up rural motor
Model year
areas roads ways
2000 2.986618 1.021474 1.366294
Measurement in gram/vehicle kilometre
Source: from Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research

35
In general, methodology to quantify vehicle emissions progresses from vehicle
activity to mobile sources emission. New methodology for estimating emission
advances with improvement of dispersion model (Gaussion based) and interpolation
(ordinary and universal Kriging) probabilistic map of pollution concentration
(Potoglou and Kanaroglou 2005). However this research is limited to emission
mapping developed from traffic model and rasterized map. Both method of pollution
mapping are not considered in this research because of limited data and time factor.

36
 5. Analysis and Results

5.1. Introduction
This chapter presents the research outputs, the impact of BRT on air quality in Klang
Valley, Malaysia. In this research, the base year selected is 2007. The BRT system is
modelled for year 2010 because in general, a BRT project can be planned within a
period of 12 to 18 months (Institute for Transportation & Development Policy
2007). Here the results are presented with major steps in the analysis processes. The
next section shows how GIS and car traffic modeling was utilised to achieve the
objective and sub-objectives of this research. As mentioned earlier, the application
of GIS analysis is to establish the mutual impact of BRT on planning and
accessibility of the mass transit. The elements in analysis will include planning of
BRT corridor and evaluation of accessibility for BRT systems.
The second section of analysis involves car traffic modeling for Klang Valley.
Prediction of car traffic was made using OmniTRANS in year 2005, 2007, 2010.
The prediction for year 2005 is used to validate between actual with modelled car
traffic volume on selected traffic station. Since BRT is modelled for 2010, the author
created two scenarios; (1) without BRT system and (2) with BRT system. The aim is
to examine the possible impact of BRT corridor to car traffic. Third part of analysis
involves examination of potential impact of vehicle emission between scenarios 1
and 2. Both scenarios will be evaluated with generation of Carbon Monoxide
emission maps to assimilate the impact of car traffic with vehicle emission on the
road networks. Finally this chapter concludes with the analysis of Benefit and Cost
to justify the cost of BRT system with the benefit to air quality.

5.2. GIS Analysis

The following section describes methodology performed for GIS analysis in order to
answer research questions. GIS analysis follows methodologies described in the first
chapter (see figure 1-5). It will be explained in the next section in sequence of
processes undertaken through this research. The analysis starts with checking spatial
data and preparation for Network Analysis in GIS.

Spatial Data Integrity

Accuracy is the extent to which an estimated data value approaches its true value
(Aronoff 1989). It is important to remember that in GIS, the results of analysis are

37
only as good as the data put into the GIS in the first place. In geodatabase, topology
is the arrangement that defines how point, line, and polygon features share
coincident geometry (de By, Georgiadou et al. 2004). Topology validation involves
defining and enforcing data integrity rules for example; there should be no gaps
between polygons, line must be larger than cluster tolerance or other different rules
of topology validation. Topology deals with spatial properties that do not change
under certain transformation (ESRI 2006). For this reason, topology for road
network was validated so that they do not overlap in the network. GIS software used
throughout this study is ArcGIS 9.2 developed by ESRI, Redland, California.
The author found out that the planning agency validated the topology of major road
network by attaching rules whereby feature class must not be larger than cluster
tolerance of 0.001535 meters and do not overlap (BKWPPLK 2004). The author
found no explanation on specific cluster tolerance in related publication. According
to ArcGIS documentation, users can use cluster tolerance that is ten times the x,y
resolution and expect very good results (ESRI 2006). However, users are advised to
keep the movement small by means of keeping the x,y tolerance small. If an x,y
tolerance is too small (such as 2 times x,y resolution or less), it may not properly
integrate the line work of coincident boundaries. The author verified that the
Geodatabase has x,y tolerance of 0.000256 meter and x,y resolution of 0.000128
meter. The default value is based on the x,y tolerance of the feature dataset and
cannot be changed to smaller value. Meanwhile, details of projections and
coordinate systems of each feature classes were verified that they have the same
projection and coordinate system (refer Appendix 1-B) throughout the GIS analysis.
In this research, spatial data was acquired from established, authoritative and reputed
sources. Therefore in the author opinion, it is sufficient to accept and use the
Geodatabase for this research.

Data Preparation
Shapefiles related to transportation network were processed before being attached to
network dataset. Attributes field such as link type, speed and time (second) were
added into shapefile. Type of road was established based on field road hierarchy.
Each link was group into five classes and given specific link code. (Highway = 2,
Primary Distributor = 11, District Distributor = 21, Local Distributor = 1 and Minor
Road = 23). This coding will be used later in car traffic modeling. Speed was set at
maximum speed limit fixed by Ministry of Work, Malaysia. In general, speed limits
for each road type are: Highway = 110 km/hour, Primary Distributor = 90 km/hour,
District Distributor = 80 km/hour, Local Distributor = 60 km/hour and Minor Road
= 50 km/hour. Travel time was calculated by dividing length in km with speed limit

38
and multiplied with 3600 to get measurement in second. Later, a network dataset
was built for the whole road network in ArcCatalog.

5.2.1. Identifying Suitable BRT Corridor

Suitable BRT corridor was found by using Structured Query Language (SQL). SQL
query was made on road network feature class to identify Primary Distributor with
more than 2 lanes (per direction). The author followed suggestion from ITDP that
BRT corridor is suitable and usually located on primary arterial roads serving central
business district and other popular locations. Primary arterial are usually those roads
which serve medium to long distance trip. In addition, number of lanes have to be
considered for a BRT corridor because the corridor width need to support a median
station (a station in between BRT lanes), one BRT runway and two mixed traffic
lanes (Institute for Transportation & Development Policy 2007). Figure 5-1 shows
result from SQL operation of suitable BRT corridors in Klang Valley.

Figure 5-1 Suitable Corridors for BRT System

The suitable corridors are (identified with number on the map):

1. Federal Highway
2. West Port Access (South West of Klang Valley)
3. Jalan Cheras - Kajang (South East of Klang Valley)
4. Jalan Sungai Buloh/Middle Ring Road Phase II
5. Middle Ring Road Phase I (within Federal Territory)
6. Jalan Damansara

39
The result of suitable BRT corridor was overlaid with population density. The result
showed that corridors are located near main conurbation area which can serve larger
number of beneficiaries. It is also apparent that population densities are larger near
these major arterial road. Area with high population concentration was identified to
be located in district of Petaling and Klang and both are predicted to have significant
increase in population size in year 2020 (Perunding Bersatu, 2005). Urban planners
reported that district of Petaling has the second highest employment concentration in
Klang Valley and the highest percentage of total commercial floor space and
distribution of industrial areas. Both district of Petaling and Klang are connected by
one major arterial road which serve medium to long distance trip between the capital
city. Based on these considerations, the author selected Federal Highway as suitable
corridor for BRT system in the study area. The next section extends discussion for
the selected BRT corridor.

Justification of the Selected Corridor

The author will investigate further to other aspect such as urban transportation
planning and development to justify the selected BRT corridor. It has been observed
that the heavy burden on Federal Highway remained one of unresolved issue in
transportation system ever since the time it was reported in 1999. The highway has
been regarded as major arterial route with large residential and industrial areas along
the corridor producing high person trip (Japan International Cooperation Agency
1999). It was built in 1965 to provide connection between Klang (national sea port)
with Kuala Lumpur. It has six lanes arterial road with many access to major
conurbation along its 45 kilometer stretch. Areas located alongside Federal
Highway have been well developed and consists of comparatively high income
residential areas. Several industrial areas are located in close proximity to the
highway since it provides easy access for logistical purposes.
Figure 5-2 shows the recorded annual traffic volume taken from yearly traffic census
conducted by Ministry of Work. The four traffic stations were selected because they
were located near Federal Highway (see figure 5-9). There is an increasing trend of
annual traffic volume after the financial crises in 1998. In 2005, traffic volume
reached level recorded in 1996 suggesting that the highway nearly reached its
maximum capacity with the current number of lanes. It is reported that in 2005,
private cars comprised as majority of the vehicles in the traffic flow at all four
stations. This is followed by motorcycles that make up between 10% to 20% of the
traffic (Ministry of Work Malaysia 2007).

40
Figure 5-2 Annual Total Traffic Volume from Selected Station from 1996-2005

1200000

1000000
TRAFFIC VOLUME

800000 BR101
BR807
600000
BR806
400000 BR805

200000

0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
YEAR

Source: Road Traffic Volume Malaysia (2005)

There is no definite alternative route connecting Klang to the centre of Kuala
Lumpur. Even newly built expressways were unable to reduce the traffic on Federal
Highway and mostly avoided because of high toll charges. In table 5-1, the result
from car traffic modeling shows that the percentage of trip generated between zones.
District of Petaling and Kuala Lumpur have considerably larger car trips than the
remaining district in Klang Valley. This can be related to rapid urbanization and
population growth in these areas as predicted by urban planners.

Table 5-1 Result of Car Trips from OD Matrix for year 2010

District Number of car trips Percentage

Kuala Lumpur 1,296,586 30%
Petaling 1,079,061 25%
Hulu Langat 730,083 17%
Kelang 693,059 16%
Gombak 513,270 12%

The trips between each OD pair from districts of Klang, Petaling and Kuala Lumpur
can be visualized on maps as illustrated in figure 5-3. It can be generalized that trips
between the three districts converged on the selected BRT corridor which
emphasizes the importance of the highway to car users. The highway runs parallel
along major cities such as Petaling Jaya, Subang Jaya and Shah Alam and these
areas are expected to experience stable population and economic growth in the
future (Perunding Bersatu 2005).

41
Figure 5-3 Origin and Destination Car Trips for district of Klang, Petaling and
Kuala Lumpur in 2010

Klang District

Petaling District
(include major city of
Shah Alam, Subang
Jaya and Petaling Jaya)

Kuala Lumpur Federal

Territory

42
The classification of land use within five kilometer buffer from the corridor was
performed to identify major land use classes and to locate residential, commercial
and industrial areas along the BRT corridor. Figure 5-4 shows the land use
classification based on land use map from 1999. The author selected five kilometer
distance as buffer distance because the author made an assumption that individual
living or working within that distance will be benefited from a BRT system in the
study area.

Figure 5-4 Landuse within Five Kilometer of BRT Corridor

The distribution of land use in figure 5-5 shows percentage of different land use
classes. Transportation planning is directly linked to land use pattern. Residential
areas accounted for 41% from total land use classification and considered to be an
important element to determine population forecast and household activities for the
future. The latest land use map was not available from the planning agency.

Figure 5-5 Percentage of Landuse Classification within 5 km Buffer

7%
7%
RESIDENTIAL
9%
41% AGRICULTURE
INDUSTRY
OTHERS
INSTITUTIONAL
10%
RECREATIONAL
COMMERCIAL
13%
13%

43
Planning of BRT Stations on Federal Highway
Development of BRT Stations on Federal Highway needs to ensure that the systems
being developed are made as successful as possible. The aim of planning public
transportation system is to maximise the number of beneficiaries. In previous thesis
on urban planning, Kabir (2004) sited several locations suitable for transit zone in
Klang Valley. This research employed spatial multicriteria evaluation for transit
zone location in Klang Valley. The result of his research is illustrated in figure 5-6.
From his research, the rectangle box on the map represents Scenario 2 which
represents sites that are already urbanized and would attract good number of
ridership. The author believed that BRT station should correspond to suitable
location for transit zones developed by Kabir. Therefore, the author selected five
sites as potential station for BRT system based on earlier suitability analysis. The
sites selected for BRT station are Klang, Shah Alam, Subang Jaya, Petaling Jaya and
Kuala Lumpur.

Figure 5-6 Collection of Suitable Sites for Transit Zone in Klang Valley

Source: reproduced from (Kabir 2004)

44
5.2.2. Accessibility Analysis
The next process is to examine the impact of accessibility to resident living near to a
BRT system. Accessibility refers to how easy it is for individual to go to a site. The
accessibility is measure by finding accessible street within certain distance to a BRT
station. The authors assumption is that people will be able to access the station
within five kilometer either using public or private transportation. In ArcGIS
Network Analyst, accessibility can be measured in terms of travel time or distance
on the network. Evaluating accessibility help answer question such as spatial
coverage of people living within certain distance from a BRT station. It is also to
determine how suitable a site is for mode integration and for maximising ridership.
A simple way is to do a buffer around a point to determine spatial coverage of
accessibility. However this does not reflect the actual accessibility to the site.
Network Analyst allows us to find service areas around any location on a network. A
network service area is a region that includes all accessible streets that are within
specific impedance. In figure 5-7, Service Area calculation has identified accessible
street that can be reached within five kilometer from BRT station. Multiple rings
buffer shows that impedance increases in 1000 meter with each band from the
potential BRT station.

Figure 5-7 Accessibility of Service Area within five kilometer from BRT Station

45
Result from previous analysis will be used to select bus stop that are within five
kilometer from Service Area. The author assumed that on average, local bus service
will be serving accessible street within five kilometer of a BRT station. These bus
stops were selected using SQL query. Proximity to bus stop was used to measure
population coverage within walking distance to and from bus stop in areas covered
by bus services. In figure 5-8, walking distance is calculated by applying buffer from
each selected bus stop.

Figure 5-8 Proximity to Bus Stop within Walking Distance

In a reasonably well served urban area, passenger should be able to catch a bus
within 500 meter of their home or work place. Distance in excess of 500 meter may
be acceptable in low density areas but the maximum walking distance should not
exceed one kilometer. The walking distances were according to distance
recommended by The World Bank (1987). Currently, local bus services are provided
by RapidKL (public transport operator) to travel around local neighbourhood and get
to the nearest rail station or bus hubs. It is assumed that individuals will be able to
take local buses from any of the selected bus stops to get to the BRT station.
Table 5-2 shows summary of accessibility measured from individual bus stop.
According to this analysis, the accessibility to bus stops changes with impedance
where 74.1% of the populations were able to catch a bus within 500 meters from
their residence and 25.9% are located in distance of 1000 meter. The buffer distance
analysis uses Euclidean distance and assumes that all populations have equal
walking distance and ignoring physical objects and footpaths to reach the bus stop.

46
Hence, it was accepted that majority of population will be able to get local bus
within accessible street in five kilometer to the BRT station.

Table 5-2 Summary of Accessibility Analysis

Distance Population Percentage Mean Std.
Deviation
500 m 953,266 74.1% 15,131.21 17,038.59
1000m 513,649 25.9% 23,347.68 27,463.65
1,466,915 100%

5.3. Car Traffic Modeling

5.3.1. Validation of Car Traffic Volume

The accuracy of car traffic modeling depends on the actual car traffic recorded on
selected traffic count station. Actual traffic volumes were collected by traffic
censuses from several number of count stations. Highway Planning Unit in Ministry
of Work carried out these counts in month of April and October 2005 with
directional count for every class of vehicles. The raw data were compiled in digital
format and were available in CD-ROM. The modelled car traffic volumes in 2005
were correlated against observed car traffic on 15 selected traffic count station
locations as illustrated in Figure 5-9. These stations are located on major roads
around five kilometers from the BRT corridor.

Figure 5-9 Selected Traffic Count Station along BRT Corridor

47
In regression, the R2 coefficient of determination is a statistical measure that will
give some information about the goodness of fit of a model. It measures relationship
between two variables. Based on table 5-3, the correlation coefficients between
modelled and actual volumes are good and considered to be significant for
predicting future car traffic volume. Conclusively, the modelled car traffic volumes
on 15 stations are assumed to be representative values of the selected links.
However, variables in figure 5-10 are not normally distributed. An obvious
relationship between the two variables can be observed but it is not linear. The
deviation could be attributed to differences in actual traffic count which was
conducted in 16 hours period and car traffic in 24 hours modeling. It is possible to
perform 16 hours car traffic modeling but it would take longer time for
OmniTRANS to calculate result for each hour. Therefore, the author was satisfied
with the correlation coefficient between observed and modelled car traffic and
incorporated results from car traffic modeling (24 hours) into further analysis.

Table 5-3 Statistical Relationship between Observed and Modeled Car Traffic
Volume for year 2005
Statistical relationship Observed Modelled
Maximum 305,287 235,653
Minimum 19,209 42,525
Standard Deviation 82,099 61,876
R2 0.8233
R correlation coefficient 0.9073

Figure 5-10 Observed and Modeled Traffic Volume on Selected Traffic Station

250000
Modeled Traffic Volume

200000

150000

100000

50000

0
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
Observed Traffic Volume

48
5.3.2. Projection from Car Traffic Modeling
Car trips were generated into OD Matrix which stores the number of trip between
each OD pair. Car Traffic modeling in Klang Valley predicted that 3,923,916 car
trips will be generated in 2005, 4,079,176 in 2007 and 4,312,059 in 2010. The
numbers of trips has increased by 3.8% (2007) and 5.4% (2010). Figure 5-11 is
produced by taking the number of car from selected traffic station in different years.
Generally all traffic stations foreseen growth in car traffic volume near to the BRT
corridor. There are a few stations with little reduction of car traffic and considered to
be small. It can be concluded that car traffic volume increased with population and
increased mobility which linked to social and economic activities in study area. In
this research, the effect of inflation and price is not considered.

Figure 5-11 Car Traffic Volume for Selected Traffic Station

350,000
300,000
Car Traffic Volume

250,000
2005
200,000
2007
150,000
2010
100,000
50,000
-
B 1
02

BR 5
6

BR 9
1

B 3
04

BR 5
6
07

W 3

W 5
6
10

10
10

10

10

0
11

80

80

80

80

81
R1

R1

R8

R8
BR

BR

BR

BR

BR

BR

R
B

Traffic Station

Result for Car Traffic Modeling in 2010 for Klang Valley

Prediction of car traffic volume in 2010 is made in OmniTRANS. The author
observed that car flows started to fill major highway as more traffic produced by
new urban areas. These new urban areas are located as far as ten kilometers from
BRT corridor. Nearly all trips are generated from urban areas and concentrated
towards the central part of Klang Valley. Figure 5-12 shows the projection of car
traffic volume in 2010 for Klang Valley. Each link is represented by particular link
bandwidths which are coded according to traffic level.

49
Figure 5-12 Result of Car Traffic in 2010 for Klang Valley

50
5.3.3. Projection of Car Traffic on BRT corridor
Figure 5-13 represents the car traffic on BRT corridor. The analysis shows the
development of car traffic on the highway from 2005 until 2010. The growth of car
trips will continues if no policy or traffic demand management is introduced. It is
concluded that traffic volume on BRT corridor continues to rise steadily until 2010.

Figure 5-13 Result of Car Traffic on BRT Corridor

51
5.4. Possible Impact of Bus Rapid Transit

5.4.1. Introduction
This section examined the possible impact of BRT to car traffic and emission. The
author will examine the impact of BRT to car traffic volume on the corridor and
later look at the amount of Carbon Monoxide emission from car traffic.

5.4.2. Possible Impact to Car Traffic

In Traffic Demand Management (TDM), BRT is an alternative restraining measure
which discourages car usage but at the same time offers mobility with better
travelling speed. It gives alternative to car users instead of punitive option. As
restraining measure, BRT may have possible impact to traffic on the selected
corridor. The most important characteristic of BRT systems is that it operates on an
exclusive lane which separates them from mixed traffic. The use of exclusive lanes
may result in overall reduction in private vehicle use. Earlier empirical evidence
suggests that giving exclusive road space to BRT will lead to reduce private vehicle
use and potential traffic transfers to other areas (Institute for Transportation &
Development Policy 2007). This is achievable with traffic restraint measure.
Therefore, the following analysis will examine the impact on car traffic with results
from OmniTRANS.
BRT system is introduced into OmniTRANS by assigning an exclusive lane. The
availability of lane and road capacity is significantly reduced. To reflect the effect of
capacity restraint, Travel Time Function is incorporated into trip assignment (refer
figure 4-2). Basically, the Travel Time Function defines relationship between
volume of traffic on a link and the resulting travel time. Link capacity is a
contributing factor to travel time. If a link is almost full to capacity, travel time
increases as traffic build up. In traffic assignment, the flow of car will be assigned to
different parameters based on Travel Time Function.
The possible impact to car traffic can be observed by comparing traffic volume at
selected traffic stations. In figure 5-14, each station is compared between two
scenarios (1) with no BRT and (2) with BRT. Almost all traffic stations show
reduction in traffic volume in scenario 2. However there is another effect that can be
noticed. Car users will be inclined to use mixed lane on the BRT corridor and take
alternative route. The author observed that roads in close proximity to Federal
Highway begin to fill up with cars trying to avoid Federal Highway. Behaviour of
car user was explained by Goodwin et al. (1998) where they claimed that a certain
percentage of vehicle traffic will disappear when road space is no longer available or

52
restricted. This phenomenon is also known as traffic evaporation which occurs due
to car user balancing travel time against the available options. In shorter term, car
users will choose different route to avoid the limited road space which is easily
congested on the BRT corridor.

Figure 5-14 Comparison of Car Traffic Volume in 2010

350,000

300,000
Car Traffic Volume

250,000

200,000 No BRT
150,000 With BRT

100,000

50,000

-
BR 1

B 2

BR 5

B 6

BR 9

B 1

BR 2

B 3

B 4

BR 5

B 6

BR 7

W 3

W 5
6
10

10
0
10

0
10

0
11

0
80

0
80

0
81
R1

R1

R1

R8

R8

R8

R8

R
B

Traffic Count Station

In table 5-4, the most significant reduction of car traffic is recorded at three traffic
station. The reduction in number of car ranges from 23% to 40%. The large
reduction compared to other 12 stations may be attributed to their location near to
main traffic convergence and close distance to Central Business District.
Conclusively, these traffic stations are located on the main arterial road which leads
directly into the city.

Table 5-4 Car Traffic Volume from Selected Count Station

Traffic Count 2010 2010 Difference
Station (no BRT) (with BRT) (%)
BR805 236,948 141,160 -40.4%
BR806 229,833 176,144 -23.4%
BR807 302,705 201,180 -33.5%

Figure 5-15 shows the impact of BRT system to car traffic on the corridor. The top
image shows the severity of car traffic on the highway without a BRT system. While
bottom image shows that BRT can reduce traffic volume up to 40% on BRT

53
corridor. This is directly contributed to exclusive lane segregated for BRT system.
Image on the top identify bottleneck on the highway. This bottleneck usually located
at the junction where the traffic from access road convergences with main highway.

Figure 5-15 Projection of Impact to Car Traffic Volume on Federal Highway in

2010 with BRT System

54
5.4.3. Possible Impact to Vehicle Emission
Another sub-objective of this research is to estimate the extent of emissions of
Carbon Monoxide (CO) pollutants from car traffic on the BRT corridor. This is done
by applying emission factors (gram of CO emitted per vehicle per kilometer travel)
on every link. In this analysis, map of CO emission is produced to examine the
impact of BRT system to vehicle emission on the corridor. The possible impact to
vehicle emission is calculated for BRT corridor as shown in table 5-5. An average
reduction of 30.5% can be expected on CO emission from car traffic.

Table 5-5 Potential CO Emission Saving on BRT Corridor

2010 no BRT 2010 with BRT Emission Saved
CO Emission (in tonne) 15,490 10,763 4,726

5.4.4. Air Pollution Map Generated from Car Traffic in 2010

The map is produced by creating raster map based on number of car on each link.
Then another raster map containing the emission factor according to road type
(urban, rural or motorway) is created. Both maps are rasterized into 100 meter cell
size. Both raster maps were multiplied to generate Carbon Monoxide vehicle
emission map as shown in Figure 5-16. The map on the top is for scenario 1-Carbon
Monoxide emission without the BRT System on the corridor while the bottom is
emission map for scenario 2-Carbon Monoxide emission with the BRT System on
the corridor. There is huge difference in CO emission on the BRT corridor.
Conclusively, with BRT the CO emission saved is about 30.5%. This is the direct
effect from reduction of car traffic.

55
Figure 5-16 Emission Map of Carbon Monoxide on Road Network

56
Figure 5-17 Result from Reduction of Carbon Monoxide Emission with BRT
System

Figure 5-17 shows emission map showing net change between scenario 1 and 2. It
can be concluded that major reduction can be observed on the BRT corridor where
net reduction (darker red) of CO emission is higher. However there is also net
increase of CO emission on other links as car user using alternative route to avoid
BRT corridor. This can be seen on link with light yellow colour on the map. This
can be attributed to car users who choose different route to avoid the BRT corridor.

57
5.4.5. Benefit and Cost Analysis of BRT System
In many instances, it is possible to monetarize the factor. This will allow a cost
benefit analysis to be conducted across many different factors. Factor such as CO
emission savings can be calculated from change in car traffic emission between the
two scenarios and apportioned to cost of BRT system per segment. In general, the
benefit will tend to decrease as distance from the city centre increases. At certain
point, the benefit will diminish and become insufficient to justify the benefit over
investment of BRT system in the study area. Since the demand for BRT is not
known, this research will quantify benefit from CO emission saved from the
reduction of the pollutant. Final analysis will justify the benefit per segment of BRT
based on CO emission savings over capital cost of the system.

5.4.5.1. Benefits from BRT System

The benefit from BRT system is monetarize by calculating the amount of emission
saved with reduction in number of car traffic. Basically emission saved is the
difference between the amount of CO emission from scenario 1 and amount of CO
emission from scenario 2. The emission saved is computed for each link. CO
emission on each links is summed for every segment to produce the benefit. In table
5-6, the last column represents CO emission saved in tonne. The analysis is done in
a spreadsheet where the corridor is divided into eight separate segments.

Table 5-6 Benefit Analysis of Corridor Length

Corridor Length of Average Benefit (saving
Segment segment (km) reduction of of CO emission
traffic (%) in tonne)

A 2.34 38% 284

B 3.11 42% 513
C 3.81 25% 662
D 5.12 26% 1,075
E 4.88 31% 1,137
F 4.98 15% 513
G 4.87 26% 511
H 2.24 7% 30

58
5.4.5.2. Cost for BRT System
Capital Cost for BRT system is calculated using BRT Infrastructure Cost
Calculator from ITDP which based on cost data from existing BRT systems and
input from BRT expert. The cost calculator gives initial estimation of infrastructure
costs. Actual costing will depend on local conditions and situations. However, the
author believes that it is useful for cost analysis in this research. Using the cost
calculator, the capital cost for 31.43 kilometer BRT corridor will cost about
42,424,863 (USD$61,619,800) with 5 stations. Major costs include busway
reconfiguration, stations construction, electronic ticketing system, Intelligent
Transportation System and other related cost. However it does not include cost for
BRT vehicle. Cost per kilometer of BRT system is calculated at 1,353,541
(USD$1,965,945). The exchange rate of USD$1.00 = 0.69 (as at 11 February
2008). Table 5-7 shows the cost analysis based on corridor length.

Table 5-7 Cost Analysis of Corridor Length

Corridor Length of BRT system Benefit/Cost
Segment segment (km) cost () Ratio
A 2.34 3,163,225 0.0897
B 3.11 4,209,513 0.1219
C 3.81 5,154,625 0.1286
D 5.12 6,930,130 0.1551
E 4.88 6,602,689 0.1722
F 4.98 6,738,820 0.0762
G 4.87 6,597,993 0.0775
H 2.24 3,027,871 0.0099

59
The basis in performing benefit cost analysis of corridor segment is by comparing
the emission saved from car traffic on the mixed lane. Once the BRT corridor no
longer brings extra benefit in comparison to the capital cost, then the point has been
reached where exclusive BRT lane no longer produces added value to air quality. In
figure 5-18, the corridor is producing net emission saving from segment A to E.
After segment E, the benefit to cost ratio falls below a value of 0.1, meaning that the
costs of extending the BRT line outweigh the emission savings benefit. It can be
concluded that after segment H, the BRT can no longer brings benefit to air quality.

Figure 5-18 Benefit Cost Ratio of Corridor Segment

0.20
0.18
0.16
Benefit/Cost Ratio

0.14
0.12
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00
A B C D E F G H
Corridor Segm ent

60
 6. Conclusion

6.1. Limitation of Study

6.1.1. Sensitivity Analysis

The effect of sensitivity analysis to modal split can be explored in this research.
However there is limitation on data and parameters for transit modeling. Sensitivity
analysis explores the influence of a parameter on the model output and allows
greater understanding of how the parameters interact and how they influence the
output.

6.1.2. Data Preparation for Traffic Modeling

The author acknowledged that preparing data sets for transportation planning and
demand forecasting is labour-intensive. The processes involve preparation of the
base year data, forecast future socio-economic data inputs and actual transportation
networks. Network generation requires extensive data collection and integration
efforts. Because of this limitation, this research is focussing only on car traffic and
modelled the expected behaviour using restriction or barrier to traffic. Nothing is
tested on the effect of BRT to modal shift because there is complex relation between
preferences and new public transportation system. Future research need to conduct
new stated preference survey to establish its effect on modal shift.

6.2. Conclusion
The analyses from previous chapter are presented with important findings:
BRT system with an exclusive lane has resulted in reduction of car traffic on mixed
lane. The reduction of car traffic is 23% to 40% which is considered significant to
discourage the public from using private car for commuting. BRT is an alternative
restraining measure which may discourage car usage and at the same time offers
mobility with better travelling speed. It gives alternative to car users instead of
punitive option. The impact from reduction is greater at locations or junctions where
traffic from access road convergences with main highway
However, further observation revealed that car users are avoiding the selected BRT
corridor because the effect of fewer lanes reduces the road capacity. The effect of
overflow can be seen to the adjacent road network or highway where car users are
predicted to take an alternative route away from road with limited capacity.

61
The corridor selection was based on arterial road which connects the major
conurbation in Klang Valley. The wealthier areas are obviously the location of
higher vehicle ownership. From the standpoint of shifting car users to public
transport, there is greater emission and congestion reduction potential in targeting
car owning households. The selection of corridor is made on arterial road which has
major access to high income residential areas.
BRT system has resulted in reduction on average 31% of CO emission from car
traffic on the on the mixed traffic lane. Benefit cost analysis performed clarified that
each segment of BRT corridor has different added value of benefit. In general the
added value lessens with distance to city centre. The added value can increase if at
certain of point of time, the emission from vehicle increases. The justification of
adding extra of BRT corridor can be re-examined if there is a significant change in
emission saved on the extra corridor length.
Conclusively, a successful public transport service should compete in term of total
travel time, comfort, cost and convenience. This will ensure the viability of policy
measures to shift people into public mode. A high quality public transport system is
the stimulus to encourage car owners to try an alternative. Transport demand
management measures are an effective tool to help further discourage private vehicle
use. Such other measures include congestion charging, parking fees, vehicle
ownership fees and day use restrictions.
BRT may have positive impact to air quality and at the same time reduce traffic on
the corridor, reduce passenger travelling time, reduce CO emission from private car,
induce private car to shift to public transport and change the modal split. Finally, it
should be fully integrated with land use policies in order to ensure the growth of
transit oriented development around BRT stations. The location of shops, services
and residences within walking distance of stations can ensure that as the city grows,
the BRT system will serve the mobility needs of new residents.

62
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APPENDICES
Appendix 1-A
Parameters for Calculating Trip Generation
Production Attraction
Purpose Parameter Unit Parameter Unit
Home to 0.46725 Trip/person 0.85025 Trip/Job
Work
Work to 0.97825 x Trip Attraction 0.97825 x Trip Production
Home
Home to 0.9358 x job (30.62) 0.9358 x job (30.62)
Business
Business 1.7337 x job (5.69) + 0.7533 x 1.7337 x job (5.69) + 0.7533 x
to Home job (22.1) job (22.1)
Home to 1.00833 Trip/student 1.00833 Trip/student
School
School to 0.97733 x Trip Attraction 0.97733 x Trip Attraction
Home
Home to 0.36025 Trip/person 0.1079 x pop (11.8) + 0.2127 x
Other job (11.46) - 21.2
Other to 0.3495 Trip/person 0.1079 x pop (11.8) + 0.2127 x
Home job (11.46) - 21.2

Appendix 1-B
Summary of Projection and Coordinate System
Projected Coordinate System: KV_PCS
Projection: Hotine_Oblique_Mercator_Azimuth_Natural_Origin
False_Easting: 804671.28000000
False_Northing: 0.00000000
Scale_Factor: 0.99984000
Azimuth: 323.02579050
Longitude_Of_Center: 102.25000000
Latitude_Of_Center: 4.00000000
Linear Unit: Meter
Geographic Coordinate System: KV_GCS
Datum: D_Kertau
Prime Meridian: Greenwich
Angular Unit: Degree

65