PRESS RELEASE

New Delhi, 28th February, 2017

Earth System Science Organization (ESSO)

Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES)
India Meteorological Department (IMD)
Climate Research and Services (CRS)

Hot Weather Season (March to May) Outlook for 2017

Highlights
The year 2016 was the warmest year ever recorded since 1901 with country averaged annual mean
o
land surface air temperature of 0.91 C above the 1961-1990 average. The country also experienced
significantly above normal mean temperature during the 2016 hot weather season (March-May) with
anomaly of +1.36 o C, second warmest ever since 1901.
Prevalence of significantly above normal mean temperatures continued in January, 2017 (0.67 o C).
Hot Weather Season (March to May) outlook for 2017 suggests that above normal temperatures
(upto 1.0o C) are likely to prevail over all meteorological sub-divisions of the country except northwest
India where temperatures are likely to be more than 1.0 C above normal.
Above normal heat wave(HW)conditions are likely over the core heat wave zone (Punjab, Himachal
Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh,
Chattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha and Telangana and met subdivisions
Marathwada, Vidarbha, Madhya Maharashtra and coastal Andhra Pradesh) of the country.
1. Background

In 2016, the country averaged annual mean temperatures was warmest (+0.91 oC above the 1961-
1990 average) ever on record since 1901 in line with warmest ever annual global mean temperatures
observed during the year. The warmed ever country averaged was mainly caused by the significantly above
normal country averaged seasonal mean temperatures during the winter season (January- February, with
anomaly +01.43oC, warmest since 1901) and the pre-monsoon season (March-May, with anomaly +1.36oC,
second warmest ever since 1901). The country averaged monthly mean temperature during January 2017
was also significantly above normal with anomalies of 0.67oC, which is eighth warmest ever since 1901.
The country experiences hot weather during March to July period. March to May season is known
as the pre-monsoon season with many parts of the country experience heat wave conditions (days with
abnormally warmer temperatures) resulting adverse impacts on the human health, water resources and
power generation and outage. Studies also indicate increasing trends in the frequency and duration of heat
waves over the country, which can be attributed to increasing trends in the greenhouse gases and the
warming of the sea surface temperatures over the equatorial Indian and Pacific oceans.
In view of its social relevance, since 2016, India Meteorological Department (IMD), Ministry of Earth
Sciences (MoES) has started to issue seasonal forecast outlooks for summer temperatures over the country
based on predictions using an ocean-atmosphere coupled climate model. In addition, IMD also issues heat
wave alerts and warnings based on the same model on every five days which will be valid for next 15 days.
Seasonal forecast outlook for the 2017 pre-monsoon season (March-May) is presented here.
1. The Coupled Dynamical Forecast System
Under the Monsoon Mission, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune Ministry of
Earth Sciences has been developing a state-of-the-art coupled climate model for generating monsoon
forecasts. The model has a spatial resolution of about 38 km and improved modules of model physics. The
model was used to prepare the monsoon forecasts since 2012. The analysis has also shown useful skill for
this climate model for predicting seasonal temperatures over India. Therefore, this climate model was used
to prepare an outlook for the 2016 summer as well as 2017 winter temperatures. The model climatology
was prepared using retrospective forecasts generated for 27 years (1982-2008). Now, this model has been
used to prepare the seasonal temperature forecast outlook for the 2017 pre-monsoon season (March-May)
based on the 2017 February initial conditions. The forecast was prepared using 34 ensemble member
forecasts. The model showed moderate skill for summer temperatures over many subdivisions over
northwest and central India during the period 1982-2008.
2. ENSO conditions in the Pacific Ocean
The border line/ weak La Nina conditions are prevailing over the Pacific Ocean since July, 2016. The
latest forecasts indicate that border line/ weak La Nina conditions are likely to weaken and reach ENSO
neutral conditions during the 2017 pre-monsoon season. Therefore, ENSO conditions (as neutral conditions
expected during the season) are unlikely to influence the pre-monsoon temperatures over the country.
3. Forecast for the 2017 Pre-monsoon Season (March to May)
Fig.1, Fig.2 & Fig.3 show the forecast for the subdivision averaged maximum, minimum and mean
temperature anomalies (departures from the long term normal) respectively over India for the 2017 pre-
monsoon season. The forecast indicates that during the season, temperatures (mean, maximum and
minimum) in all the sub-divisions are likely to be above normal. All the temperatures (maximum, minimum and
mean) of most of the subdivisions from northwest India and along the plains of Himalayas are likely to be
above normal by 1.00 C. Overall, the temperature anomaly patterns show increase in the magnitudes of the
anomalies as move from southern part of the country to northern part.
The season averaged maximum temperatures (Fig.1) are likely to be warmer than normal by 1oC in
most of the subdivisions from north, northwest India and few subdivisions from neighboring east central India,
and by 0.5oC to 1oC in remaining subdivisions.
The season averaged minimum temperatures (Fig.2) are likely to be warmer than normal by 1oC in
most of the subdivisions from northwest India and along the plains of Himalayas, by <0.5oC in Orissa,
Chhattisgarh, south Interior Karnataka and Rayalseema, and by 0.5oC to 1oC in the other subdivisions, which
are mainly from peninsular, west central and northeastern parts of the country.
The season averaged mean temperatures (Fig.3) are likely to be warmer than normal by 1oC in most
of the subdivisions from north, northwest India and along the plains of Himalayas, by <0.5oC in south Interior
Karnataka, and by 0.5oC to 1oC in other subdivisions.
There is about 47% probability of maximum temperatures in the core HW zone during the 2017 pre-
monsoon season to be above normal (Fig.4). Core HW zone covers states of Punjab, Himachal Pradesh,
Uttarakhand, Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar,
Jharkhand, West Bengal, Orissa and Telangana and met subdivisions of Marathwada, Vidharbha, Madhya
Maharashtra and coastal Andhra Pradesh. This in turn suggests that above normal moderate and severe heat
wave conditions are likely in the core HW zone during the season.
4. Extended Range Forecast Services for Hot Days and Heat Waves
From this season, IMD will also provide extended range forecasts (5day averaged forecasts for next
15 days) of heat wave conditions over the country. This will be based on the Dynamical Extended Range
Forecasting System developed under MOESs monsoon mission project. The forecasts updated after every 5
days will be made available through IMD, Delhi website (www.imd.gov.in).
Fig.1. Maximum Temperature Anomaly forecast Fig.2. Minimum Temperature Anomaly forecast
for the 2017 pre-monsoon season (March-May). for the 2017 pre-monsoon season (March-May).

Fig.3. Mean Temperature Anomaly forecast for

the 2017 pre-monsoon season (March-May).

Fig.4. Climatological probability distribution of daily

maximum temperatures during the pre-monsoon
weather season (March-May) over core heat wave
zone (CHZ) is shown along with forecast probability
distribution of the same for 2017.