IEA 2020 2030 2040

Roadmap targets 2010 2050

Sales of energy efficient and low/ Energy efficient and low/zero Transformation complete, energy
16 CHP water heating
zero carbon heating and cooling carbon heating and cooling efficient and low/zero carbon
Key findings 15
CHP space heating equipment accelerate equipment dominate sales heating and cooling equipment
Baseline emissions 15.2 Gt
Key actions over the next ten years:

2 Gt CO2
Solar thermal water heating CO2 savings: 0.6 Gt CO2 CO2 savings: 1.3 Gt CO2 dominate sales and stock
14 Heating
Solar thermal space heating and cooling zz Policy working groups should be convened that include
uu Low/zero-carbon and energy-efficient heating and cooling 13 equipment
stakeholders from all areas of government to develop policy and
Heat pumps water heating
technologies for buildings have the potential to reduce CO2 12 ensure that other buildings policies (e.g. fire, equipment safety,

Gt CO2
Heat pumps space heating
emissions by up to 2 gigatonnes (Gt) and save 710 million 11 Heat pumps cooling Energy efficient and low/zero local planning, etc.) are aligned with energy-efficient and low-
carbon heating and cooling carbon technology priorities, or at least are not barriers to their
tonnes oil equivalent (Mtoe) of energy by 2050. Most of these 10 Other buildings energy efficiency equipment account for 2.0 Gt CO2
deployment.
technologies which include solar thermal, combined heat and 9 of the total direct savings in the
buildings sector of 5.8 Gt CO2
power (CHP), heat pumps and energy storage are commercially 8
zz Policies such as minimum energy performance standards,
available today. 7 labelling, utility programmes and financial incentives need to
be implemented to address market barriers such as high initial
Roadmap action plan costs and low priority of energy efficiency in decision-making
uu An additional USD 3.5 billion a year needs to be made available
and market failures (e.g. principal-agent problems, transaction
Regulatory Convene policy co-ordination
for research and development (R&D) by 2030. R&D efforts
framework group and review existing policies costs, search costs, compliance issues).
should focus on reducing costs and improving the efficiency and and support
Develop national and/or regional roadmaps
schemes and vision for buildings, including heating
integration of components. R&D into hybrid systems could lead and cooling equipment
zz Governments should improve standard education of key
to highly efficient, low-carbon technologies (e.g. integrated solar Streamline policy frameowork for buildings and remove barriers from current non-energy and environment policy goals/regulatory frameworks professionals, such as architects, designers, engineers, builders

thermal/heat pump systems, CHP). Beyond 2030, R&D needs to Develop an integrated policy package in consultation with stakeholders (conduct periodic ex-post reviews of effectiveness) and building owners and operators/users.

focus on developing technologies that go beyond the best that Implement policy package, including framework for the support of heating and cooling technologies

zz A wide variety of standardised information packages, tailored

are currently available.
uu Governments need to create the economic conditions that will
enable heating and cooling technologies to meet environmental
criteria at least cost. Policies need to be broad to address
specific barriers (e.g. lack of installer awareness) and deep to
reach all of the stakeholders in the fragmented building sector.
Internalise the external costs of heating and cooling equipment
to individual decision makers needs, should be developed to
Implement support policies for specific heating and cooling technologies
allow decision makers to compare the potential of technology
Gradually phase out technology-specific support mechanisms and transition to technology neutral policies
alternatives, identify performance targets and energy and CO2
Market Harmonise international test procedures to facilitate trade and transparency on performance savings at the time of design or purchase. Governments need to
facilitation
highlight the role of technologies in reducing financial risks, such
and Improve education and training of building sector professionals with energy efficient/low carbon heating and cooling technologies
transformation as energy and carbon price volatility.
Develop installer certification and product quality labelling schemes where not currently available
Improve information available to decision-makers (architechts, engineers, installers, equipment purchasers, etc.)
zz Governments should expand and/or implement mandatory
Develop effective communication strategies to raise awareness and understanding of energy and CO2 savings opportunities in heating and cooling equipment quality assurance and certification schemes for equipment and

uu Governments should develop national roadmaps, tailored to local
circumstances, which help to drive market expansion, advance
systems development and integration, shape supportive policy
and enhance collaboration. Policies should set measurable and
meaningful targets, such as CO2 emissions reductions, or ensure
that programme effectiveness is verified regularly.
Consolidate all installer certification and equipment quality labeling schemes into one overarching system for heating and cooling equipment installers (including training) and harmonise these across the
heating and cooling technology industry.
Introduce efficiency/CO2 labelling schemes for all heating and cooling equipment
Transition to mandatory CO2 based labelling schemes
zz Industry and governments need to work together internationally
Technology Develop cross-stakeholder consensus on on R&D, market deployment, performance and test procedures,
development the importance of stable long-term RD&D
funding for buildings harmonisation/comparability of heating and cooling system tests,
and R&D
Develop specific RD&D short- and long-term goals for heating and cooling technologies to meet national roadmaps and policy development.
Make an additional USD 3.5 billion per year available for heating and cooling tehcnology RD&D by 2030
 DMAP INSIG
A H
Cost reduction and R&D goals Buildings sector energy demand Heating equipment deployment in the BLUE Map Scenario

RO
Energy-efficient Buildings

TS
Delivered energy cost reduction goals today and in the Baseline Scenario to 2050 Heat pumps
Heating and Cooling Equipment 5 000
80
Heat pumps 4 500 Middle East
70 Solar thermal Africa
4 000
60 CHP Central and
3 500
US cents per kWh

South America
50 3 000 Eastern Europe and

GWth
2 500 Former Soviet Union
40 Eastern Europe and Former Soviet Union
Other developing Asia
30 2 000
800 India
1 500
20 China
OECD Europe
600 1 000 OECD Pacific
10
800 500 OECD North America
0 400 OECD Europe
0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 OECD North America 600 2008 2030 2050
200 China
800

Mtoe
400
Cost and performance goals for heating and cooling technologies 2020, 2030 and 2050 0
800
600
200 2008 2030 2050
Solar
600

Mtoe
2020 2030 2050
400 4 000
0
India
Active solar thermal 2008 2030 2050 400 Middle East
3 500
200 800 Africa
Installed cost -30% to -50% -50% to -75% -50% to -75%

Mtoe
200 3 000 Central and

Mtoe
Maintenance cost 0% to -40% 0% to -40% 0% to -40% 0
Africa and Middle East 600 South America
2008 2030 2050 2 500
0 Eastern Europe and

GWth
800 2008 2030 2050 Former Soviet Union
400 2 000
Delivered energy cost -30% to -45% -50% to -60% -50% to -65% Other developing Asia
600 1 500
200 India
Thermal energy storage PCM, thermal-chemical and PCM, thermal-chemical and PCM, thermal-chemical and OECD Pacific
Energy use per 1 000 China

Mtoe
centralised centralised centralised 800
capita (toe/1 000 people) 400 OECD Pacific
0
Installed cost -35% to -50% -50% to -75% -65% to -85% 2008 2030 2050 500 OECD North America
Heat 1200 - 2400
Central and South America 200 600 OECD Europe
Delivered energy cost Depends on cycle regime Depends on cycle regime Depends on cycle regime Electricity 0
600 - 1200

Mtoe
Biomass and waste 800 2008 2030 2050
Other developing Asia
Heat pumps Space/water Cooling Space/water Cooling Space/water Cooling 300 - 600 0 400
Solar 2008 2030 2050
heating heating heating 150 - 300 800
Natural gas 600
-10% to -20% -5% to -15% -20% to -30% -5% to -15% -30% to -40% -5% to -20% 200
Installed cost Oil 75 - 150
CHP

Mtoe
600
Coal 0 - 75 400
Coefficient of 10% to 20% 10% to 30% 30% to 50% 20% to 40% 40%to 60% 30% to 50% 0
performance improvement improvement improvement improvement improvement improvement 2008 2030 2050 800
World 400
200 Middle East
Delivered energy cost -10% to -20% -10% to -15% -20% to -30% -10% to -20% -30% to -40% -15% to -25% 700

Mtoe
4.5
200 Africa
CHP 4.0 0
Fuel cells Microturbines Fuel cells Microturbines Fuel cells Microturbines 600

Mtoe
2008 2030 2050 Central and
3.5
Installed cost -20% to -40% -5% to -10% -40% to -55% -20% to -30% -60% to -75% -30% to -50% 0 500 South America
3.0 2008 2030 2050

GWth
Eastern Europe and
Electrical efficiency 30% to 37% 25% to 35% 35% to 40% 30% to 35% 35% to 45% 35% to 40% 2.5 400
Former Soviet Union
2.0
70% to 80% 65% to 70% 75% to 80% 70% to 75% 75% to 85% 75% to 85% 300
Thousands Mtoe

Total efficiency Developing Asia

1.5
Delivered energy cost -15% to -35% -5% to +5% -45% to -65% -10% to +5% -75% to -85% -15% to +20% 200 OECD Pacific
1.0

Note: Improvements in costs or performance are expressed as a percentage relative to the base year (2010) specification. However, the electrical and total 0.5 100 OECD North America
efficiencies for CHP are actual percentages, not improvements. For fuel cells, the delivered energy cost is for thermal energy and is based on a long-run cost of
0.0 0 OECD Europe
CO2-free hydrogen of between USD15/GJ and USD25/GJ in 2050. 2008 2030 2050
2008 2030 2050
2050 Blue Map energy consumption in buildings (Mtoe)
Service sector 175 246 90 116 40 76 79 34 59 65

OECD Europe 239 Other developing Asia 170 Eastern Europe and Central and
Residential OECD North America 264 OECD Pacific 67 China 313 India 258 Africa 243 Middle East 121
Former Soviet Union 151 South America 92