Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Analysis
2017-2018
INTRODUCTION
2016 was a year marked with unprecedented events. The year saw major economic upheaval at Indi-
an as well as global level. With the danger of a global economic slowdown-partly brought about by
the Chinese markets crash- looming over the major nations of the world, 2016 was full of challenges
and uncertainties. First, Japan shocked the markets announcing negative interest rates. Then, Brexit
Vote caused major economic ripples across the world. It heightened the likelihood of other major
developed economies to take protectionist actions. Further, OPEC nations decided to cut supply, first
time since 2008, driving up the oil prices sharply. The US Presidential election result was also a
matter which ruffled the financial markets across the globe.
In the Indian context, however, Demonetization took the centre stage like no other. What came as a
surprise to all also created massive turbulence in the markets; gold prices rose sharply and real es-
tate took a beating. This volatility coupled with the FED rate hike announcement induced a lot of cap-
ital flight, which in turn pushed up the dollar to new heights. In the backdrop of such volatility, Indias
image as a favourable investment destination has now been slightly tarnished.
On the GDP front, India recorded high growth of about 7.4% in the first two quarters. However, a
consumption shock due to demonetization has pushed the growth rate below 7% for 3 rd quarter and
further below for the 4th-estimates by IMF, World Bank and leading international agencies predict the
growth to be in the 6.5-6.8% range. The GDP estimates of the year 2017-18 have also been revised to
below 7%.
The three indicators of fiscal efficacy- Inflation, Fiscal Deficit, and Current Account Deficit- saw a lot
of movement over the year. On account of falling prices of food and beverages, inflation rate came
down to a 2-year-low of 3.4% in December 2016 from 5.69% in January 2016. A fall was observed in
the WPI and CPI towards the last months of the year. The Current Account Deficit has been steadily
going towards comfortable terrain since the past two years. CAD in the third quarter was $3.4 Billion.
However, increase in oil prices will deliver a blow to the Trade balance. The fiscal deficit was also
largely under control. The government had set high standards targeting 3.8% Fiscal Deficit. The gov-
ernment might not be able to achieve the target due to below par performance in quarter 3 and
quarter 4(E).
In light of the weakening macro-economic vitals of the Indian economy, it becomes essential that the
government gives a push to the economy to revive the consumption and bring back the economy on
the erstwhile expected growth curve. An increase in government spending is not only expected but
also becomes warranted in the backdrop of comfortable inflation and fiscal figures. The banks have
initiated the process by reducing lending rates. Industry looks forward to an effective transmission of
rates to revitalize domestic demand and investment.
The governments initiatives like the Skill India, Start-Up India, and Make in India promise to boost
the countrys growth by pushing the manufacturing sector and thereby creating employment opportu-
nities. However, these initiatives have not delivered any substantial results till now. It is expected that
the budget will provide a push necessary for smoother functioning and improvement of the aforemen-
tioned and other policies. The current government, with its bold and unprecedented moves like de-
monetization, has earned credit of trying to break through the policy paralysis to bring about transpar-
ency and efficiency in the system. Therefore, it is expected that the budget will address the areas which
have earlier been overlooked: youth unemployment (which is double that of the national level), widen-
ing of tax ambit (dependent on the GST roll out) and a push to agriculture sector.
BUDGET AT A GLANCE
2016-17 2017-18
Budget Budget Estimates
Revenue Receipts 1377022 1626870
Revenue Expenditure
17 1731037 2067564
(10+14)
(3.50) (3.87)
Primary Deficit (22-11) 41234 54840
(0.30) (0.34)
With the consumption crunch that the country is facing, the fiscal expenditure will increase because of
which the government will not be able to achieve the target of 3.5% of Fiscal Deficit as estimated.
According to our analysis, the fiscal deficit would be 3.87%.
Taxation
-Anand Singhania & Chintan Patel
Some other changes proposed are as follows- These exemptions were negligible before and is
surely going to benefit the society if increased.
1.Children Education allowance to go up from
.
100/month to 1500/month.
2.Children Hostel expenditure allowance is ex-
pected to increase from 300/month to 2000/
month.
3.Medical reimbursement to increase from
15000/year to 30000/year.
4.Clubbing of Minor childs income to increase
from 1500/ month to 5000/month.
.
Cement
-Kumar Abhishek & Sohini Das
.
Infrastructure
-Shubham Jajodia & Shreyansh Agarwal
There has been very less success If these stuck projects becomes R-INFRA, GMR, GVK, ESSEL AND
in financing of projects that are operational, it may lead to eas- ESSAR. ALSO BANKS LIKE AXIS
stuck in the middle and requires ing of bank NPAs. It will also BANK, ANDHRA BANK ETC.
last mile funding. It is expected lead to improvement in the con-
that there should be a dedicat- version rates in sectors such as
ed allocation of funds for such roads and highways.
projects either via special situa-
tion funds or carving out a por-
tion of funds from National In-
vestment and Infrastructure
Fund (NIIF) for immediate fund-
ing of such projects.
Minimum Alternative Tax (MAT) Tax holiday on book profits will JSW ENERGY, TATA POWER,
has been quite regressive for not get compromised. IRR of IVRCL, GUJARAT FLURO CHEMI-
the infrastructure projects espe- projects will be increased and it CALS ETC.
cially during the early stages of will attract more investments.
projects after theyre commis- Companies may use this to
sioned. . A reduction in MAT is evade taxation.
expected for long gestation in-
frastructure companies.
Infrastructure
-Shubham Jajodia & Shreyansh Agarwal
Either due to bidding or financ- Tax compliance and litigation L&T, JAIPRAKAST ASSOCIATES,
ing or bidding requirements, costs can be reduced as well as LANCO INFOTECH, R-INFRA ETC.
Infrastructure companies create ease of doing business will be
multiple SPVs. It is expected enhanced.
that government announces
policies for tax consolidation or
one fiscal unit of taxation for
such companies.
IRB INFRASTRUCTURE, GMR,
Infrastructure Investment Trusts Developers can re-deploy their MEP INFRASTRUCTURE, R-
(INViTs) could be very crucial in funds for new projects. Ease of INFRA.
re-deploying the funds of devel- doing business for developers.
opers for new projects. Howev-
er, the current taxation system
has not allowed for encourage-
ment of INViTs. It is expected
that there should be complete
tax exemption, including MAT,
to developers who want to
move their assets or infrastruc-
ture projects into an InvIT.
Infrastructure
-Shubham Jajodia & Shreyansh Agarwal
Benefits of GST may get re- Reduction in trucking time as ALL THE LOGISTICS AND
duced in the lights of poor infra- well as faster mobility of goods TRANSPORT COMPANIES.
structure. GST is expected to
reduce stoppages, consequently
reducing trucking time, more
highways will multiply that
effect. It is expected that there
should be greater focus on the
Bharatmala highways initiatives
along with Sagarmala ports.
E-commerce
-Mohit Oberoi & Rituraj Roy
Providing benefits to the sala- Increases disposable income in ALL FMCG COMPANIES LIKE
ried tax payers. the urban markets and increase MARICO.
consumption.
Higher capital support for Push for credit growth needed ALL BANKS UNDER BANKING
banks. for the banks to better their bal- SYSTEM OF INDIA HOUSING
ance sheet and surely for the AND INFRASTRUCTURE SECTOR.
economy.
PAYMENT BANKS AND TAXA-
Removal of service tax on digital Increase in transactions under TION UNIT OF THE GOVERN-
transactions. digital platform to push the gov- MENT.
ernment move of less-cash India
and reduce the unaccounted
illegal wealth.
MUTUAL FUNDS AND STOCK
Changes in capital gains tax in Increase in existing holding peri- MARKET.
the stock market and reduction od to 2-3 years for availing the
of securities transaction tax LTCG tax exemption. Reduction
(STT) on stock trading. in STT will promote people to
shift to more of financial assets,
Increase in Service Tax in Capital
increase in ST for capital market
market brokerage. brokerage will take a hit on
earnings of brokers.
MUTUAL FUNDS.
Increase in the investment limit Increasing in savings rate for the
for tax-saving equity mutual economy. Thus, excess funds
fund schemes to Rs 2 lakh from become available for lending to
corporates and SME.
the current Rs 1.5 lakh. FINANCIAL SERVICES.
Tax benefits to Debt-linked sav- Money flows into the hands of
ings scheme and Rajiv Gandhi citizens through various initia-
Equity Savings Scheme (RGESS). tives. Providing tax benefits like
this will uplift the savings and
Extending Sec 54 EC benefit for
investments rate which plum-
mutual fund schemes with lock- meted in few previous years.
in period of 3-5 years..
BFSI
-Yashik Garg & Anil Shah
Deduction under Sec on 80C for Boost to saving schemes and NBFC'S.
Deposits placed with Housing apart from this, improving cus-
Finance Companies. tomer sentiment towards de-
posits in NBFC.
Period of Carry Forward and Set Increase in the revenue of insur- ALL INSURANCE COMPANIES.
-off of Losses in Case of Insur- ance companies. And to push
ance Business and Hike in Limit citizens of India to take different
types of insurances to safeguard
of Investment under Section
themselves.
80C. Deduction in Respect of
Insurance Premium and En-
hanced Deduction of Life Insur-
ance Premium under Sec on 80C
of the Income Tax Act.
Telecom
-Mayank Churendra & Mehul Choudhary
There are chances that GST will According to analysts and in- BHARTI INFRA TEL, VODACOM,
dustry experts, telecom tower VIOM NETWORKS AND ERIC-
be more than 15%.
companies could miss out on an SON.
over Rs 2,000 crore annual sav-
ings opportunity on their diesel
bills with petro-products re-
maining outside the framework
of the goods & services tax
(GST) regime. And hence call
charges data rates may go up.
The industry is expecting a clar- The industry believes that spec- AIRTEL, IDEA AND VODAFONE
ification that spectrum acquired trum is in the nature of an in- ETC are telecom companies will
tangible asset and is thus, cost be benefitted due to following
and put to use prior to April 1,
incurred for acquisition of the reasons: (a) Allocation of spec-
2016 would be eligible for de- trum being a sovereign function
spectrum is eligible for tax de-
preciation under section 32 of preciation under section 32 of should not be taxed. (b) Non-
the Act. the Income-tax Act, 1961 (Act). applicability of withholding tax
provisions on payments made
Expenditure on Technology ad- Technology enhancement will for spectrum trading/sharing.
lead to significant capital ex- Tax depreciation on spectrum
vancement.
penditure and it will bring in the acquired prior to April 1, 2016.
latest class to the Indian cus-
tomers.
IT/ITES
-Jagannath Abhishek & Dhaval Nathwani
Grant tax credit for Equalisation Overcome the menace of dou- FOREIGN COMPANIES.
Levy to foreign companies by ble taxation.
entering into reciprocal agree-
ments with countries that im-
pose similar levies to avoid situ-
ation of double taxation.
IT/ITES
-Jagannath Abhishek & Dhaval Nathwani
Fostering digital literacy, im- The demonetisation measure DIGITAL PAYMENT GATEWAYS.
proved connectivity and access has triggered a positive impact
to technology supported by rad- on adoption of digitization and
ical government process re- Digital India has set foot in a
true and meaningful sense. On
engineering and larger budget-
this backdrop, Government sup-
ary allocation for such initia- port in terms of tax rebates,
tives. concessions for new-age tech-
nological innovations would
serve a long way towards fur-
ther enhancing Indias position
in the global Intellectual Proper-
ty (IP) landscape.
Rationalise and simplify the tax GST rollout, which is slated to ALL THE PLAYERS IN THE AUTO-
structure for the automobile be from 1st July 2017, will sim- MOBILE SECTOR.
plify the taxation policy bringing
industry, inter alia, by subsum-
efficiency and ease of doing
ing multiple levies and rational- business in the sector. This is
ising tax rates. GST rollout. highly dependent of GST being
rolled out this year, which can't
be counted upon. The automo-
bile sector may be disappointed
in this regard.
Boosting rural consumption, de- The demand for two wheelers HERO, HONDA, TVS AND MOST
mand and lower interest rates has fallen by 22% as a fallout of BIKE COMPANIES IN INDIA.
the Demonetisation move. The
on auto loans.
rural sector consumption has
taken the biggest hit. Some in-
centives to boost demand will
help bring the two-wheeler
growth on track. Increase in
government expenditure.
Incentivise exports and develop It'll help in attracting more forex MOSTLY ALL THE PLAYERS IN
infrastructure to boost the sec- reserves. The sector won't just THE SECTOR.
be left at the mercy of domestic
tor.
demand and it'll give the sector
the legroom to grow.
Lowering of excise duty. This will give a push to the MOSTLY ALL THE PLAYERS IN
stalled industry growth in the THE SECTOR.
automobile sector due to falling
demand. Lesser tax income to
the government.
Automobile
-Arundhati Pol & Sunny Gehani
Higher cost savings on Hybrid This will enable the conversion MAHINDRA, TOYOTA, BMW.
and Electric vehicles. Lower tax- of India to a Electric vehicle na-
tion amid the rising hoo-ha re-
es on hybrids, mild-hybrids and
garding hike in fuel prices, rise
electric vehicles. in carbon footprint and the
need for sustainable transporta-
tion. The lack of infrastructure
and the high initial costs are ma-
jor challenges.
The expectations are the gov- The changing needs of the sec- MOSTLY ALL THE PLAYERS IN
ernment will revise the tor require more funds for R&D. THE SECTOR.
Also, with the need for electric
weighted deduction for ex-
vehicles to be made affordable,
penditure on scientific research a higher weighted deduction for
to the earlier level of 200%. expenditure on R&D will enable
the companies to make head-
way in this regard. If the govern-
ment doesn't revise this to
200%, it'll be going back in its
own bid to promote the electric
vehicles.
Defence
-Hardik Ogra & Keshav Raj Thakur
Finalisation of Strategic Partner- Give a fillip to the shortlisted ALL SHORTLISTED DEFENCE
ship. firms and make sure that both FIRMS LIKE RELIANCE AND L&T.
private and public sector com-
panies can take part in it. One
company can be an SP in only
segment which may be detri-
mental to interests of major
players like L&T which are pre-
sent in a variety of sectors.
Export orientation of the com- Current paucity of orders makes ALL DEFENCE COMPANIES.EX
panies coupled with the Make a case for more exports and FOREIGN FIRMS LIKE LOCKHEED
hence better economies of MARTIN.
In India Push for Indian orders
scale. Export of weapons is a
should increase the sectoral sensitive sector and not all
growth. countries could be exported
weapons.
Oil and Gas
-Hardik Ogra & Keshav Raj Thakur
Make capital expenditure in- Help in proliferation of gas net- DOWNSTREAM COMPANIES..
curred by city gas distribution work in cities which is a desira-
ble objective as it will remove
companies.
the reliance from LPG.
Reduction of cess on oil compa- Increased profitability of oil ALL UPSTREAM COMPANIES
nies. companies which can be a driv- WHICH BOUGHT OIL FIELDS
er for more investment. Dent on OUTSIDE THE NELP FRAME-
revenue collection. WORK.
Clarity on effect of GST on sec- GST will not be applicable on ALL UPSTREAM COMPANIES.
tor. petro products which can in-
crease the cost of companies as
they won't get input tax credit.
Removal of service tax on Explo- Will increase investment in E&P UPSTREAM COMPANIES.
ration activities. activities, help in increasing pro-
duction. Current revenue will
have to be forgone by GoI.
Sagar Agarwal
Komal Khetawat
Ayush Aggarwal
Raghav Somani
Finance Club
Akanksha Mittal
Symbiosis Infotech Campus,
Nishtha Halwai Plot No.15,Rajiv Gandhi Infotech Park
Shreshth Mishra Hinjawadi, Phase-1, Pune
Phone No. 9007791248
Akash Thakkar
Emailfinanceclub@scmhrd.edu