An Open Learning Campus Video Presentation

Brought To You By
The World Bank Group

Turn Down the Heat: From Climate Science to Action!

Adaptation and Resilience: Middle East and North Africa

with
Dorte Verner
The climate has shaped the cultures of the Middle-East and North Africa. The first settlements
in the world started in this region, namely farming communities and cities. All of them changed
in response to the variable climate.

The climate has been changing for thousands of years in MENA - so it is not new. 4000 years
ago there was a prolonged drought of about 300 years in the Al Hasakah area in North East
Syria. That led to outmigration already at that time. People left their agriculture and moved to
pastoralism because of the changing climate.

Over the next century, the region will experience unprecedented extremes and climate change
is a threat to poverty reduction and economic growth in the region. Moreover, it is likely one of
the contributors to conflict and wars in the Middle-East and North Africa as we are seeing it
right now.

The current speed and intensity of climate change is new. The existing coping mechanisms are
increasingly becoming obsolete as climate change affects all 355 million people in the region,
and in particular the 100 million poor people.

MENA's population is projected to double by 2050, which together with projected climate
impacts, puts the region under enormous pressure; especially for water and food.
On top of this, today, millions of people have fled their homes and countries. Globally, that has
created the biggest refugee crisis since World War II. Migration and climaterelated pressure on
resources could increase the risk of further conflict.

The climate is getting hotter dryer and more variable and climate change is already felt in
MENA as people are experiencing new and higher temperatures, more droughts, more floods,
reduced levels of precipitation, and overall increased climate variability. This put more pressure
on the region's already scarce resources. Already 14 of the world's 33 most water stressed
countries are in the MENA region. Water scarcity affects livelihood and economic development
and is linked to food insecurity, social instability, and potentially to conflict.

As the pace of climate change accelerates, traditional coping mechanisms are becoming
increasingly inadequate and climate adaptation is called for.

Climate change will likely reduce agriculture production in MENA countries. Consequently, they
will need to invest in agricultural innovation and technology to effectively adapt to increasing
climate variability and change, while maintaining productive agriculture for both food security
and livelihoods.

In MENA, agriculture is more than 75% rainfed, and therefore very vulnerable to climate
change. Adaptation to increased unpredictability of rainfall is therefore needed in agriculture.
The farmers can adapt in many ways, for example by growing more drought-tolerant or shorter-
cycle crops. Farmers may use rainwater harvesting techniques. They can also use conservation

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tillage, a method that leaves the previous year's crop residue to reduce soil erosion to
compensate for reduced soil moisture.

Another issue in the region is salinization because of rising sea levels and seawater intrusion
into aquifers. Growing salinization will prompt changes in cropping patterns, and in soil and
water management. To adapt to those changes, farmers can use more salt-tolerant crops, use
freshwater to blend with saline sources, and use off-season freshwater sources to leach salt
residues into the soil profile.

Urbanization in MENA is occurring rapidly, so it is often unplanned or planned without

consideration to climate change. Rapid urbanization results in the creation and expansion of
informal settlements, which are highly vulnerable to climate events. These settlements often
damage the natural environments that act as buffers to climate impacts.

Cities can reduce vulnerability by implementing green building codes that reduce energy
consumption and costs. They can also embark on urban greening projects, which typically
include planting drought resistant vegetation, and updating irrigation systems.

The planting of drought-resistant vegetation can reduce the urban heat island effect. It can also
decrease air pollution, and absorb excess rainfall and even CO2.

Water availability is a major issue. Appropriate wastewater treatment and rainwater catchment
can provide additional water sources. For example, Egypt, has the capacity to treat nearly 1.6
billion cubic meters per year of municipal wastewater.

Many MENA countries rely on tourism for revenue, employment, and foreign currency. Climate
change will affect tourist attractions and facilities. Adaptive responses can diversify and expand
the tourism sector into less exposed destinations.

Climate change impacts men and women differently in MENA countries. Gender-based
vulnerability is an important consideration in adaptation. In particular, the sociocultural gender
dynamics make women particularly susceptible to poverty and lower adaptive capacity. For
example, men from rural areas often migrate and leave women behind in charge not only of the
household and family matters but often also of farm and production.

Adaptation efforts should also consider gender at the national, institutional, and project level
wherever efforts occur.

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