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Projects in India.
SUBMITTED TO:
ABSTRACT:
As India continues to grow at more than 8%, a balanced increase in the gross capital
formation (GCF) in infrastructure as a proportion of the GDP emerges as the most
important key in sustaining high economic growth. Though recently there have been
investments in the infrastructure sector, the GCF as a proportion of GDP continues to be
lower at around 5%. As far as the physical infrastructure is concerned, there exists a huge
deficiency, in our view. Inadequate infrastructure is identified as one of the biggest
constraints of doing business in India. Therefore, to give proper direction to highway
development The Planning Commission of India has estimated an investment of INR
3118 billion under the Eleventh Plan versus the INR 1448 billion spent under the Tenth
Plan.
CERTIFICATE OF ORIGINALITY
The thesis Financial Viability Analysis of the Road Sector Projects in India submitted
by for his MBA program has been pursued and completed under my guidance. The same
has been upto my expectation and so I, hereby, approve the same.
ii
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Thesis Topic Approval (Fin) SS/ 2006-08
Thesis to me show details Apr 29 Reply
Dear Vijay,
This is to inform that the thesis topic Financial Viability Analysis of the Road Sector Projects in
India, as proposed by you, has been approved .This email is an official confirmation that
you would be doing your thesis work under the guidance of. Make it a comprehensive
thesis; the objective of a thesis should be value addition to the existing knowledge base.
Please ensure that the objectives as stated by you in your synopsis are met using the
appropriate research design.
You must always use the thesis title as approved and registered with us.
You are required to correspond with us by sending atleast six response sheets to (format
attached along with this mail) at regular intervals, before 31st May 2008 (the last date for
thesis submission).
Regards,
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
Guidance, assistance and cooperation of a lot of people is always involved in successfully
completing a project, and so with great pleasure and privilege I wish to thank those
people who have been actively supporting me in the project.
First of all, I would like to thank, for providing me an opportunity to work on this project.
He constantly encouraged and guided me to streamline this project from
conceptualization to finish.
iv
I am especially thankful to for guiding me through the project with valuable inputs and
suggestions. He has been a source of constant support and encouragement.
The whole of has been immensely supportive and very helpful during course of the
thesis.
Last but not the least, I would also like to thank from National Highways Authority of
India for providing me documents pertaining to the subject under study.
Table of Contents
Chapter I: Introduction. 1
1.1 Study Background. 1
1.2 Scope. 2
v
2.10 Current status. 14
Research Methodology 15
vi
4.6.1 Risks involved in Road Sector Projects. 51
4.6.2 Instruments for mitigating risks. 53
vii
1
1. Introduction
1.1 Study Background
The road sector has been, and will be for a long time, the dominant form of transport for
freight and passenger movement throughout the world. In India the decade of 90s
witnessed a series of economic reforms. The government since then is committed to
second generation reforms aimed at achieving an annual growth rate of 7 to 8 percent.
Such acceleration in growth is bound to create a massive demand for infrastructure
services such as power, telecom, roads, ports, railways and civil aviation.
Over the last few years, the road development scenario has changed rapidly. Until 1991,
government was exclusively responsible for the development and maintenance of the
road sector. In the absence of user charges, the road sector in India has relied entirely on
the budgetary allocation and funding by multilateral agencies, which stagnated at about 3
percent of the total plan expenditure during the seventh and eighth five-year plans.
The major initiative taken in the road sector was the constitution of the Central Road
Fund with the introduction of a cess on fuel. Over the years this has become the major
source of financing highways development programme. The revenue from the cess has
increased from Rs. 2000 crores at time of its inception to Rs. 5000-6000 crores per
annum.
The era of 90s also witnessed major changes in the policies. To facilitate & induct the
capital from private sector into road development, policies were amended and several
incentives were introduced. Further to give proper direction to highway development, the
National Highways Authority of India was made operational. A clear mandate was set for
NHAI. A concrete plan of development was announced for National Highways and Rural
Roads in the form of NHDP and Pradhan Mantri Gramin Sadak Yojana. It has thrown
excellent Business opportunities for contractors, equipment manufacturers and suppliers,
consultants, road developers, investors and managers. It is also expected to give a boost
to the economy through increased demands for raw materials and job opportunities.
However, it has also thrown challenges. Challenges, not to garner resources, but to ensure
2
Scope
Study of the past trends in financing of the road sector projects in India with a special
emphasis on terms of financing, institutions involved in financing of the road sector
projects, role of World Bank, ADB, etc.
o Risks perceived by lenders in financing of the road sector projects and ways to
mitigate these risks.
o Public Private Partnership: Role of the private sector in the development of the
road projects in India.
o Also prepare a Model to show the Financial Viability of the Road Sector Project.
3
(As we can see from the above bar chart that NHs are less than 2% but carry more than
40% of traffic)
national Highway system is owned by Central Government. The legal status is given by
National Highways Act, 1956. When the era of planning started in India (in 1956), the
length of National Highway system was 19,811 kms. This has now increased to 58,112
kms. The additions to National Highway System have been made after careful evaluation
of various demands or needs arising from time to time. National Highways constitute less
than 2% of the total road network, but carry nearly 40% of the total road traffic.
(The Blue And Red bars are for Freight Traffic and Green and Purple for Passenger Traffic)
Its evident from above that the Freight transport by road has risen from 6 billion tonne
km (BTK) in 1951 to 400 BTK in 1995 and 800 BTK in 2001. Passenger traffic has risen
from 23 billion-passenger km (BPK) to 1,500 BPK in 1995 and 3000 BPK in 2001. The
annual growth of road traffic is expected to be 9% to 10%. Current boom in the
automobile sector may even increase the future growth rate of road traffic. While the
traffic has been growing at a fast pace, it has not been possible to provide matching
investment in the road sector, due to the competing demands from other sectors,
especially the social sectors, and this has led to a large number of deficiencies in the
network. Many sections of the highways are in need of capacity augmentation, pavement
strengthening, rehabilitation of bridges, improvement of riding quality, provision of
traffic safety measures, etc. There are congested road sections passing through towns
where bypasses are required. Many old bridges are in need of rehabilitation/replacement
along with capacity augmentation.
Road development has been ignored in most of the development plans of India. There has
been no matching growth of the main road network comprising of National and State
Highways as seen from the table given below:
The main roads have not kept pace with traffic in terms of quality also. Out of the total
1,95,231 km. Length of National and State Highways only 2% of their length is four-
lane, 34% two-lane, and 64% single lane. As far as NHs are concerned, only 5% of
their length is four-lane, 80% two-lane and the balance 15% continues to be single
lane.
Thus the road sector, in spite of its high priority is adversely affected by the poor quality
and service levels. The poor quality of Indian roads is highlighted by congestion, old
fatigued bridges and culverts, railway crossings, low safety, no bypasses and slow traffic
movement.
valuable time and also contributing to high rate of road accidents. Our commercial
vehicles are able to make only 250-300 kms in single day against 500-600 kms in
developed countries. It has been roughly estimated that a saving of Rs. 25,000 crores per
year could be brought about by road improvements. These savings would be in the form
of reduced fuel consumption, lower wear and tear of vehicles and less damage to tyres.
These can be avoided by modernizing the roads.
projects like Naini Bridge, Hapur Bypass, Durg Bypass etc. NHAI is also responsible for
implementation of the policy of privatization in highway sector.
national forum for regular pooling of experience and ideas on all matters concerned with
the construction and maintenance of highways, to recommend standard specifications and
to provide a platform for the expression of professional opinion on matters relating to
roads and road transport including those of organizations and administration. It is also
publishing Journals, monthly magazines and research bulletins. IRC is a registered
society under the Registration of Society Act and is financed by contribution from
Central Government, various State Governments and also contributions from its
Members and sale of Publication.
Pradhan Mantri Gramin Sadak Yojana: Under the Pradhan Mantri Gramin
Sadak Yojana, two lakh villages with over 1,000 population will be connected to the
nearest highway by 2008. All villages with a population above 500 will be connected by
2009. The cost is estimated at Rs. 60,000 crores. Indian villages need roads which serve
for decades without maintenance, are hard enough to withstand iron-tyred bullock carts
and can be used even monsoons.
Connectivity, as these are the high volume sectors carrying the substantial portion of the
road traffic in India.
The total length of Golden Quadrilateral is 5952 kms, North-South-East-West Corridor is
7300 kms and that of Port Connectivity 400 kms. The project envisages a total
investment of Rs 58,000 crores spread over a nine-year period. Golden Quadrilateral is
scheduled for completion by the end of 2003 and North-South-East-West Corridor by the
year 2009.
2. Considering the importance of the road sector in the country, the government has
embarked on the ambitious National Highway Development Project covering 14,000
km with a cost of Rs. 58,000 crore and the projects have already started rolling.
3. The Indian construction industry that had been experiencing a slowdown witnessed a
growth of 9 per cent and 8.5 per cent for the periods Financial Year 2000 and
Financial Year 2001 (1st half) respectively. This was possible due to the increased
spending in infrastructure and the actual taking off of some of the Road Sector
projects.
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Research Methodology:
The research design which I have planned for my thesis will be of the following nature.
I would be working on secondary data because of the fact that the various financial
aspects of the projects like the Projects Initial Investment, the Payment Pattern, duration
of the project, Project IRR, etc. have to be analysed to show the viability of such projects.
For this purpose I will have to indepth and exhaustive study of all the available secondary
data like journals, websites and other related documents.
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3.1.2 Central Road Fund: The Central Road Fund derives its revenues out of the
duty on customs and excise levied on petrol and diesel. It is expected to provide Rs.
6,000 crore annually for National Highway Development Program. The states are also
getting Rs. 1962 crore for development of state roads. A dedicated road fund has been
created by the central government. It is expected that the total collections in the fund will
be to the tune of around Rs. 10,000 crore.
The allocations from the fund would be as shown:
o 50% of the proceeds from additional excise duty on diesel would be allocated for
development of rural roads.
o Of the remaining balance, 57.5% would be provided for national highways, 27%
for state roads, 3% for development of roads of interstate and economic
importance and 12.5% for railway safety works such as rail roads over bridges,
manning of level crossings etc.
3.1.3 Octroi: Octroi is the fees collected by the local authorities of towns and cities
from the trucks, which carry goods. It is one of the major avenues of resource generation
of municipalities. The fund collected by octroi is generally used to develop the other
district roads and village roads. Since the collection of octroi results in long detention of
trucks on the roadside and entails waste of time and fuel, so central Government is
pressurizing to abolish this mode of taxation.
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3.1.4.2 World Bank Aided Projects: Various projects that have been funded by world
bank are:
1. India: State Highways Project
Date: June 20, 1997
LOAN AMOUNT: IBRD-US $ 70 million
PROJECT DESCRIPTION: The project will help relieve traffic congestion and
reduce travel times by widening and upgrading priority roads, enhancing road
maintenance, and strengthening the state road agency's ability to manage its road
programs and assets. The main components of the project are: (i) civil works for
widening and strengthening of about 1,400 kms of high-traffic volume State
Highways and Major District Roads; (ii) reduction in the backlog of periodic
maintenance work on 2,000 kms of state highways and major district roads and
twenty kilometers of national highway damaged by a recent cyclone will receive
emergency maintenance; and (iii) the Institutional Development Plan of the Roads
and Buildings Department (RBD) will be supported through corporate strategy
development, studies and/or pilot projects, training and staff development.
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study for the development of a long-term plan for expressways; and (c) carry out a
study for the updating of road user cost data.
o Incremental Operation and Administration: Incremental operation and
administration costs for the implementation of the Project.
Five National Highway Projects have been so far funded by Overseas Economic
Cooperation Fund of Japan/Japan Bank for Inrenational Cooperation so far. The total
loan is of the order 37.557 billion Japanese Yen. Four of these projects are for four-laning
and one is for major bridge across River Yamuna at Allahabad.
Specifications:
partnerships is that both the public and the private sector have unique characteristics that
provide them with advantages in specific aspects of service or project delivery. The most
successful partnership arrangements draw on the strengths of both the public and private
sector to establish complementary relationships. The roles and responsibilities of the
partners may vary from project to project. As the roles and responsibilities of the private
and public sector partners differs on individual servicing initiatives, but the overall role
and responsibilities of government do not change. Public private partnership is one of a
number of ways of delivering public infrastructure and related services. It is not a
substitute for strong and effective governance and decision making by government. In all
cases, government remains responsible and accountable for delivering services and
projects in a manner that protects and furthers the public interest.
Public private partnerships can vary in:
o The degree of risk allocated between the partners.
o The amount of expertise required on the part of each partner to
negotiate contracts.
o The potential implications for user fee payers.
fees for a fixed period to amortize investment. At the end of the franchise, title
reverts to a public authority or Government.
o Build, Lease/Rent and Transfer BLT/BRT): The Government contracts with
the private partner to build a facility to provide a public service. The private
partner then leases the facility to the Government for a specified period after
which ownership vests with the Government. This approach can be taken where
Government requires a new facility or service but may not be in a position to
provide financing.
o Build, Transfer and Operate (BTO): The Government contracts with a private
partner to finance and build a facility. Once completed, the private partner
transfers ownership of the facility to the Government. The Government then
leases the facility back to the private partner under a long term lease during which
the private partner has an opportunity to recover its investment and a reasonable
rate of return.
o Modernize, Own/Operate and Transfer (MOT): The private partner takes a
facility from the Government, expands or modernizes it, then operates the facility
under a contract with the Government. The private partner is expected to invest in
facility expansion or improvement and is given a specified period of time in
which to recover the investment and realize a return.
o BOR: Build, Operate and Renewal of the concession.
o DBFO: Design, Build, Finance and Operate.
o DCMF: Design, Construct, Manage and Finance.
o ROO: Rehabilitate, Own and Operate.
o ROT: Rehabilitate, Own and Transfer.
In a BOT project, the Government decides the need of the project and its scope. The
design, performance and maintenance of the project is tailored to the objectives of the
country and the private sponsors are selected by appropriate bidding or evaluation
process in order to arrive at the price that is fair to both the Government and the sponsors.
A properly drafted agreement limits the private sponsors to a reasonable rate of return
and ensures that the project serves the country's national interest and economy.
Advantages of BOT Scheme:
29
o Cost savings: With BOT Scheme, Government is able to realize cost savings for
both the construction of capital projects as well as the operation and maintenance
of services. For example, construction cost savings can often be realized by
combining design and construction in the same contract. The close interaction of
designers and constructors in a team can result in more innovative and less costly
designs. The design and construction activity can be carried out more efficiently,
thereby decreasing the construction time and allowing the facility to be put to use
more quickly. Private partners may be able to reduce the cost of operating or
maintaining facilities by applying economies of scale, innovative technologies,
more flexible procurement and compensation arrangements, or by reducing
overhead.
o Risk sharing: With public private partnership, Government can share the risks
with a private partner. Risks could include cost overruns, inability to meet
schedules for service delivery, difficulty in complying with environmental and
other regulations, or the risk that revenues may not be sufficient to pay operating
and capital costs.
o Improved levels of service or maintaining existing levels of service: Public
private partnerships can introduce innovation in how service delivery is organized
and carried out. It can also introduce new technologies and economies of scale
that often reduce the cost or improve the quality and level of services.
o Enhancement of revenues: BOT scheme may set user fees that reflect the true
cost of delivering a particular service. BOT scheme also offer the opportunity to
introduce more innovative revenue sources that would not be possible under
conventional methods of service delivery.
o More efficient implementation: Efficiencies may be realized through combining
various activities such as design and construction, and through more flexible
contracting and procurement, quicker approvals for capital financing and a more
efficient decision-making process. More efficient service delivery not only allows
quicker provision of services, but also reduces costs.
o Economic benefits: Increased involvement of Government in BOTs can help to
stimulate the private sector and contribute to increased employment and economic
30
growth. Local private firms that become proficient in working in BOTs can
export their expertise and earn income outside of the region.
Project Structure
G ov ernm ental
A gency
Su bscrip tion
A greem ent
I nsu rance L oan
I nsu rers P olicies
C on cessionaire A greem ent L en d ers
E ngineeri ng
P rocu rem ,ent
C onstru ction
C ontract
I nd ep enden t
D esign C onsu ltant
EPC
C ontractors
Project Structure
Independent
Consultant Contract
Tolling Engineering Operation &
Contract Procurement, Maintenance
Construction Contracts
Contract
Advantages
o Selection of the private developer is through an international competitive bidding
process wherein the bidders asking for the lowest annuity amount is awarded the
BOT contract. This leads to induction of private party on the most competitive
terms.
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o As the revenue (traffic volume and toll collection) risk is substantially mitigated,
financing for the project can be arranged on the most competitive commercial
terms.
Disadvantages
o The entire revenue risk will be fully borne by the Government.
o Impose a high financial burden on the Government is for a long period.
The PD shall domicile the Project and all the activities related thereto in a Special
Purpose Vehicle (SPV). The investments made in the Project by the SPV and returns
thereon shall be recovered by way of revenues generated from the operation of the
project. The SPV shall be entitled to collect tolls from the users of the Project road at
rates to be specified in the Concession Agreement. The toll rates shall be indexed to
inflation (WPI, CPI, etc.) and may undergo annual revision.
Advantages
The advantages in this model are:
o As the SPV would be promoted by a Sovereign body, this will be looked upon
favourably by lenders / investors thereby facilitating financing on commercial
terms.
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Project Structure
Governmental
Agency
Subscription
A greement
Insurance Loan
Insurers Policies SPV/ A greement Lenders
Corporation
Engineering
Procurement,
Construction
Contract
Independent
Design Consultant
EPC O&M
Contractors Contractor
Disadvantages
The disadvantages in such a strategy could be:
o It would be detrimental to the achievement of overall policy of public-private
partnership for infrastructure development.
o It would create a significant burden on the budget of Government/Promoter for a
long period.
Advantages
o This structure allows for harnessing the efficiencies (operational and financing) of
private sector
o Reduces financial burden on Government as only a one-time capital grant will be
required to be given to the project.
Disadvantages
o Selection of the private developer is not through a public/open process. Hence
issues of transparency may arise.
o As this would be a negotiated deal, this transaction may lead to price distortions
in the absence of a competitive mechanism for selection of the private participant.
Advantages
The SPV implementing the project will have the backing of both the Government of
India and its own Government.
The structure allows for introduction of international experience in similar projects.
Disadvantages
35
Project Structure
Subscription Agreement
Assignment of
Concession Loan
Agreement Agreements
Government
of India SPV Lenders
Independent Insurance
Consultant
Contract Policies
Independent
Consultant O&M Tolling Insurers
Contract Contract
EPC Contracts
EPC
Contract EPC
Contract
Section 1
Section 2
Contractor 1 Contractor 2
3.2.2.3 The Route Map already followed A Data Base on Indias Road Sector
Privatization Efforts
For realizing Indias ambitious growth plans, it is critical that this invaluable asset of road
network must be substantially upgraded to maximize the effectiveness. Towards this
capacity enhancement of the road network, both in qualitative and quantitative terms, the
NHDP and Pradhan Mantri Gramin Sadak Yojana are the major initiatives. These
projects have the vast potential in creating the employment. The Government in
collaboration with Private Sector has already awarded and completed various projects by
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using different implementing models like BOT (Toll Based / Annuity), SPV, MOU and
Govt. to Govt. cooperation to ensure unobstructed mobility and accessibility and serving
the need of a modern India.
Private Sector participation through BOT (Toll Based / Annuity) and SPV Projects
4. Selection:
o Evaluate Bids.
o Clarifications / Adjustments.
o Project Award.
5. Development:
o Form Project Company.
o Equity Contributions.
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o Loan Agreement.
o Financial Closing.
o Construction Contract.
o Supply Contract.
o Off-take Contract.
o Insurance Contract.
o Operation & Maintenance Agreement.
6. Implementation:
o Construct facility and Install Equipment.
o Testing.
o Acceptance.
o Technology Transfer and Capability Building.
o Evaluation.
7. Operation:
o O&M during the Concession Period.
o Inspection.
o Training.
o Technology Transfer and Capability Building.
8. Transfer:
o Transfer Procedures.
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4.2.1 Project Financing: In BOT projects financing is done through "Project Finance"
technique. Lender seeks finance either through limited recourse basis or a non-recourse
basis. The lender in a non-recourse financing arrangement will look only to the project's
asset and revenue stream for repayment, not to the additional sources of security, such as
the total assets or balance sheet of the project sponsors. But most of BOT projects are
financed on a limited recourse basis rather than Non-recourse basis because in this
recourse is available against the project company and its assets, including real estate,
plant and equipment, contractual rights, performance bonds, insurance, government
guarantees and other commitments the project company has obtained. The rate of return
of a BOT project must be sufficient not only to repay the lenders but also to reward the
sponsors for committing their equity and know-how and for assuming the risks involved
in such projects.
In such financing, a separate project company is established by the project sponsors to
implement the project. This type has several advantages for sponsors:
o It allows the sponsors to borrow funds to finance a project without increasing
their liabilities beyond their investment in the project. On the sponsors balance
sheet, therefore, their exposure to the project is the amount of their equity
contribution to the project and nothing more.
o Lenders to the project assume a part of project risks, since they are lending
without full recourse and primarily on the basis of the project assts.
40
BOT financing is a specialized form of project financing. Some of the common features
of BOT financing are as follows:
o It involves the financing of a discrete venture that is more often defined by its
revenue stream than by its products or markets.
o It involves several interrelated contracts with third parties, such as suppliers,
purchasers and Government agencies, which are crucial to the credit support for
the project.
o Project loan repayments are secured by project cash flows, as specified in
contractual agreements or as indicated by demand forecasts, rather than project
assets.
o Project sponsors will rely primarily on guarantees to minimize their exposure to
project risks and uncertainty.
1. Equity Capital:
Equity is the lowest-ranking capital of all in terms of its claims on the assets of a
project. It represents the funds injected by the owners of the project. In this all the
41
project obligations are to be met before any distributions made to the equity investors.
If a project fails, all other claims must be met before any claims made by equity
investors. Equity investors therefore bear a higher risk than any other provider of the
capital so, equity capital is also referred as risk capital. However, if a project is
successful, then the surplus after all obligations are met will entirely accrue to the
shareholders and results in the capital gains. In BOT project, the fixed assets are
transferred to the Government at no cost, so the equity investors return on investment
will come only from the revenues generated during that period so these investors
must be fairly compensated for being the highest risk takers.
2. Debt Capital:
Project's senior debt has the highest ranking of all the capital. Senior debt has first
claim over all the assets of a project and must be repaid first. Only after the claims of
senior debt are satisfied, the claims of other capitals are considered. As the senior
debt bears the limited risk so the returns are limited just to the payment on the loans,
irrespective of the profitability of the projects. Equity investors prefer a high debt-
equity ratio, while creditors prefer a low debt-equity ratio because a higher debt-
equity ratio leads to lower cost of capital and vice-a-versa. Generally the BOT
projects financed in India are at debt-equity ratio of 70:30.
3. Mezzanine Capital:
It is a more flexible instrument than either pure equity or debt, as it has characteristics
of both the debt and equity capital. So the risk involved is between debt and equity
capital. Examples of mezzanine financing are subordinated loans and preference
shares. The subordinated loans and preference shares both have the characteristics of
the debt as the regular payment of interest and capital is to be made, but the payments
are subordinated to senior debt and to be made only when the project funds are
available. For project sponsors, the advantage of mezzanine financing is that it
enables projects to be financed with more debt and less equity.
4. Institutional Investors:
42
the Government through equity participation in the concessionaire, thus reducing the
amount of equity and debt needed from private sources.
1. Pre-investment Costs: These are the costs incurred by the project sponsors in
developing the project concept and preliminary project design.
2. Bidding & Procurement Costs: A project concession can be awarded through either
competitive bidding or direct negotiation with sponsors. In both the cases, the
government agency responsible for awarding the concession has to carry out an
outline study of the project to collect information needed for the bidding documents
and prepare themselves for negotiations with sponsors. The bidders and sponsors also
have to undertake extensive design and analysis work to prepare their bids and to
have meaningful negotiations with the government.
3. Operating Costs: These are the costs involved while operating the facility upon
completion of construction.
44
4. Project Development Costs: On the basis of the preliminary project design, the
project sponsors have to further develop and refine the BOT scheme during the
bidding and the post-concession award period.
5. Construction Costs: This is the main expenditure in any project. It includes the
construction of the entire facility, including the purchase and installation of
equipment.
6. Termination Costs: At termination the costs may or may not be involved. If the
project agreement requires the facility to be transferred it may involve a cash payment
by the government agency taking-over that facility.
4.4.1 Supportive Legal Framework for a BOT projects: The attractiveness of a BOT
project to the private sector depends to the large extent on the way the
46
from the escrow account according to the stipulated priorities. The lenders insist that
escrow accounts are to be maintained in order to pay debt service for a minimum
period before any distributions are made to the equity investors. The benefits of the
various contracts entered into by the project company as well as the other assets of
the company are assigned to a trustee for the benefit of the lenders. Numerous
policies insuring against a variety of risks are secured. Lenders requests the
Government support to protect lenders against the risks which are out of control and
causes the project to fail.
The rule of thumb is that private road infrastructure projects work best when project risks
and responsibilities are assigned to the party that can best bear them. The private sector is
generally better managing commercial risks and responsibilities, such as those associated
with construction, operation and financing. In contrast, toll roads may also depend on
public participation in areas such as acquisition of right-of-way, political risk and in some
cases, traffic and revenue risk. The government considers giving financial support or
guarantees if traffic levels in the early years are insufficient.
The main risks involved in road sector projects are:
o Political Risks
o Construction Risks
o Market and Revenue Risks
52
o Finance Risks
o Legal Risks
o Operating Risks
In addition, contracts commonly address Force Majeure and legal liability because they
have proven to be the serious sources of cost overruns in the sector.
1. Political Risks:
Political risk concerns government actions that affect the ability to generate earnings.
These could include actions that terminate the concession, the imposition of taxes or
regulations that severely reduce the value to the investors, restrictions on the ability to
collect or raise tolls as specified in the concession agreement etc. Many projects are
delayed because of the difficulties of acquiring right-of-way or environmental
clearances that both the governments and the operators underestimate. Government
generally agrees to compensate investors for political risks, although in practice,
governments may cite justifications for their action to delay or prevent such
payments. Thus, private investors generally assume the risks that are associated with
the dispute resolution and the ability to obtain compensation if the government
violates the concession agreement.
2. Construction Risks:
A common cause of cost overrun stems from design changes and unforeseen weather
conditions during the construction phase. The private sector typically bears primary
responsibility for the construction uncertainties and attempts to cover it through
insurance. The public sector may assume responsibility for risks under its control
such as competing complementary facilities or allowing cost increases associated
with major design changes.
3. Market and Revenue Risks:
Demand uncertainty continues to be a major factor in most of the projects. Traffic and
toll levels may not be sufficient to cover all costs, including construction, operation
and maintenance. The private sector fully depends upon the government for the
handling of the traffic and revenue risks.
4. Financial Risks:
53
Financial risk is the risk that project cash flows might be insufficient to cover debt
service and then pay an adequate return on sponsor equity. Financial constraints like
lack of long-term debt capital hinder the road development projects. Non-availability
of local or domestic finance markets may lead to the higher risks for road sector
projects which need long-term financing.
Currency risks involve the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the value of
domestic currency. It can subject to the convertibility as the operator may not be
allowed to convert the local currency into the foreign currency.
Financial risks are best borne by the private sector but a substantial government risk
sharing is required either through revenue or debt guarantees or through participation
by state or multilateral development institutions.
5. Legal Risks:
Regulatory risk stems from the weak implementation of regulatory commitments built
into the contracts and the laws or other legal instruments that are relevant to the value
of the transactions as it was originally assessed. The major risk lies on the part of the
concessionaire like lack of power and capacity.
6. Operating Risks:
Operating risks are the risks that emerge at the time of the operations of the project on
the part of operators default. It can also involve the risks like force majeure risks that
are beyond the control of both the public and private partners, such as floods or
earthquakes, or other non-political factors such as strikes and industrial disturbances
that impair the projects ability to earn revenues. Sometimes private insurance is
becoming available for catastrophic risks but generally public sector faced with the
need to restructure the project if such disaster or problem occurs.
1. Equity Guarantees: These provide a concessionaire with the option to be bought out
by the government at a price that guarantees a minimum return on equity. Although
the liability is contingent, the government effectively assumes project risk and
reduces the corresponding private sector incentives.
2. Debt Guarantees: These guarantee that the government will pay any shortfall related
to principal and interest payments. Sometimes, the government also guarantees the
scheduled refinancing. This creates significant government exposure and reduces
private sector incentives, although it may decrease the cost or increase the amount of
debt available to the project.
3. Exchange Rate Guarantees: These are the guarantees where the government agrees
to compensate the concessionaire for increases in financing costs due to exchange rate
effects on foreign financing. Exchange rate guarantee helps in increasing the
incentive to use foreign capital.
7. Shadow Tolls: In this the government contributes a specific payment per vehicle to
the concessionaire as toll, rather than the user. These are the ongoing revenue stream
55
from the government in lieu of an up-front grant or loan and as these are paid over
time, these leads to a less burden on the public on the public budget.
1. Political Risks.
Potential Risk Exposure of Risk Mitigation Measures.
Concession
Company &
Project Lender
Change in law not specific Returns to Sponsors Obtain right for Company to
to the Project; increase in are less; debt increase tariff; require Sponsors to
taxes service may be put in new money; otherwise a
jeopardized project risk
Breach by the Grantor of Users may use If serious enough and not cured
exclusivity obligation; competing obtain right for Company to
failure by the Grantor to concession terminate; otherwise obtain right
meet undertakings to assist facilities; viability for Company to claim damages
of the Project is from the Grantor
threatened
Approval of tariff increases Project is not viable Obtain right to appeal tariff
is not given decision; obtain right to
compensation of the Company by
the Grantor for cash deficiency;
require Sponsors to put in new
money; otherwise a project risk
2. Construction Risks.
Potential Risk Exposure of Risk Mitigation Measures.
Concession
Company &
Project Lender
Cost overruns; unanticipated Delays, increased Require a lump sum, fixed time
variations, time extensions project debt construction contract with little
scope for variations; claim
damages; call performance bonds;
57
concession period
Variations and changes in Increased finance Ensure that the Company, the
design requested by costs and delays Grantor and the Contractor agree
Company, Contractor or to back to back claims principle;
third party require Sponsors to put in new
money in the required amount
Concession fees and Deficiency in debt Ensure fees and profits are
Grantors profit shares, are service and subordinated to debt service
too high inadequate returns payable to Project Lenders
to Sponsors
4. Finance Risks.
Potential Risk Exposure of Risk Mitigation Measures.
Concession
Company &
Project Lender
Loans are raised in foreign If foreign currency Require that Company hedges its
currency and there is a is borrowed, when forex exposure; obtain right for
devaluation of local converted, there is Company to increase tariff by a
currency insufficient money, percentage related to the rate of
to pay debt service devaluation
Increase in interest rates Increase in debt Fix interest rates; enter into swaps;
service obtain right to increase tariff by a
percentage related to interest rate
increase; drawdown of standby
loans; require Sponsors to make
subordinated loans
5. Legal Risks.
Potential Risk Exposure of Risk Mitigation Measures.
Concession
Company &
Project Lender
Security is not enforceable Project Lenders risk Legal due diligence; obtain
or is deficient loss of principal guarantees from Sponsors
and interest
6. Operating Risks.
Potential Risk Exposure of Risk Mitigation Measures.
Concession
Company &
Project Lender
deficiency them
Default by Concession Operator may claim Ensure there are grace periods in
Company under O&M damages; O&M Contract; obtain step-in
Contract Concession rights for the Project Lenders
Contract may be
terminated
64
Operating costs are too high Reduction in cash Ensure that there are controls in
available for debt the O&M Contract; ensure there
service are termination rights for the
Company in the O&M Contract if
costs remain high
no cost to the
sponsors.
Extension of Measure to provide Improves project Effect on current
Concession Period compensation for the economics. cash flow is
Indonesia and others loss of profit due to small.
circumstances caused
by the government
Construction of Construction of Contributes Construction
Related Facilities connecting roads, significantly to delays may
United Kingdom, access ramp, etc. the project since critically impair
Thailand and others connecting roads the
and other commencement
facilities are of operation.
critical elements
for
commencement
of operation.
Revenue Support Revenue support is Facilitation of the Weak design
Malaysia, China usually done with a finance closing may impose a
(SAR) minimum threshold for and the project. large contingent
compensation paid by liability on the
the government. government.
Revenue Sharing Deriving revenue from Possible Revenue sharing
with Existing an existing toll road mitigation of formula requires
Facilities facility; can take the revenue shortfall careful design.
Malaysia, Thailand, form of taking over the risk in the startup Possible burden
United Kingdom and complete facility years. when all assets,
others including employees debts, and
and assets as well as employees are to
debts. be transferred.
Shadow Toll Toll is paid by Facilitation of Possible financial
United Kingdom and government according private financing burden/fiscal
Argentina to the vehicle-km of the without inflexibility in
traffic counted stimulating the later years;
68
6.2 Findings
o Private sector is still reluctant to invest in the infrastructure projects because of
the high risk of traffic volume and long gestation period.
o In the annuity projects the entire revenue risk is fully borne by the government
and it imposes a high financial burden on the government for a long period.
o Government departments have abundant technical expertise but there is a lack in
financial management.
o Infrastructure financing is in its recent stage, only few projects have been
completed under these implementing models, the agreements or documents
related to these have not been scrutinized in the court of law or no judgements
have been passed yet.
o Undeveloped Domestic Capital Markets, lack of proper instruments to meet the
requirements for the infrastructure projects.
o No foreign funding in infrastructure projects.
o No single window clearances: Lengthy procedures for getting clearances.
74
Model
7.1 Description
This is a BOT (Toll Based) model of a four lane, 53 km long road project. A BOT (Toll
Based) project involves private party bidders who invest in the project and get returns
from the tolls collected during the operations. The total project cost is Rs. 322.60 crores
and the construction period is 30 months beginning from 1st April 2008. In the model, the
expenditure phasing has been done for a typical road project. The impact of financing
pattern on expenditure phasing and thus on the overall cost of the project can be easily
analyzed in this exercise. Also taken into account is the tax holiday afforded to the
infrastructure projects in the Union Government Budget to compute the tax provisioning
requirements.
In this project EPC cost, traffic volume and phasing of the cost is provided by the
Governmental agency and is given to make the project financial feasible by using the
various mix of the finance options available for the project in order that the project can
attract the private investors with a good rate of return. In the end the sensitivity analysis
has been done to study the impact of changes in the interest rate and financing pattern on
the Project IRR and the total Project Cost.
The model is prepared in Excel Sheet and involves the calculation of Toll Revenues
expected, DSCR i.e. Debt Service Coverage Ratio.
(see appendix B)
77
(Amounts in crores)
(see appendix B)
The IRR is that discount rate that makes the net present value of the expected returns of a
project zero. The advantage of IRR is that it can be used even when the discount rate is
unknown. Here we have calculated IRR based on the cash flows generated from the toll
78
collected and then its compared with the total investment of the project. Further the IRR
is compared with the cost of capital to get a clearer picture w.r.t. the financial
attractiveness of the project.
As we know that if the IRR > cost of capital then accept that project and if IRR < cost of
capital then reject the project.
Here we can see that the IRR of the project is 11.25% which is greater than the cost of
capital of the project which stands at 10.60%.Hence, we can clearly judge that the project
is an attractive project.
Further to measure the monthly debt payment ability of the project we have calculated the
DSCR i.e. Debt Service Coverage Ratio because it refers to the amount of cash flow
available to meet annual interest and principal payments on debt, including sinking fund
payments.
This ratio should ideally be over 1. That would mean the property is generating enough
income to pay its debt obligations and the higher this ratio is, the easier it is to borrow
money for the enterprises property.
If DSCR is less than 1 then it would mean a negative cash flow. A DSCR of less than 1,
say .95, would mean that there is only enough net operating income to cover 95% of
annual debt payments
As we can see that after making necessary calculations the DSCR comes to 1.37, which is
greater than 1, so, we can comfortably conclude that the project is a lucrative one and the
interested entrepreneurs should not hesitate to bid for such toll based BOT projects, but
only after one follows the method prescribed here in this research.
(see appendix B)
Bibliography
Reports & Other Publications
Concession Agreements:
I. Moradabad Bypass Project.
II. Delhi Noida Project.
Websites / Weblinks
I. www.nhai.org
II. www.nic.in
III. www.worldbank.org
IV. www.indiainfoline.com
V. www.ciionline.org
VI. www.ficci.org
VII. www.jkr.gov.my
80
APPENDIX: A
81
completed.
Operating Risks & Incase cost overruns in maintenance, it would be
Mitigating directly funded byNHAI.
Framework Incase, minimum revenue is not achieved NHAI has
agreed to take the residual risk by providing revenue
shortfall loan to the project company.
APPENDIX: B
85
Financing Parameters
Length of Highway 53 Kms
% of total
Equity Equity Cost
Rupee Equity 96.78 100% 12%
Forex Equity 0 0%
Total Equity 96.78 100%
Economic Assumptions
Expenditure Parameters
Annual O&M Expenses
- for Original Capex 0.50% of Original Project Cost
- for Insurance 0.50% of Original Project Cost
Resurfacing after every 5 years 18.20 crores (as on COD)
Escalation Rate for O&M 6.00% p.a.
Traffic Assumptions 1
Growth
Vehicle Type Traffic Volume Rate
2011-
As on Toll Plaza 1 1-Apr-01 COD 1992-99 2000-05 2006-2010 2015 After 2015
Cars 850 1114 7.00% 7.50% 7.50% 7.20% 6.80%
LCV 375 482 6.50% 7.50% 7.00% 6.80% 6.30%
MAV 100 129 6.50% 7.50% 7.00% 6.80% 6.30%
Bus 600 772 6.50% 7.50% 7.00% 6.80% 6.30%
HCV 2000 2573 6.50% 7.50% 7.00% 6.80% 6.30%
Total PCUs 9663 12451 5.97%
*Leakage may occur because of incomplete journeys/purely local
traffic.
Leakage may have to be provided for based on traffic study/survey. 2.68 17.00 5.97%
Traffic Assumptions
Growth
Vehicle Type Traffic Volume Rate
1996- 2000- 2010 -
As on Toll Plaza 2 1-Apr-01 COD 2000 2005 2005-2010 2015 After 2015
Cars 700 918 7.00% 7.50% 7.50% 7.20% 6.80%
LCV 200 257 6.50% 7.50% 7.00% 6.80% 6.30%
MAV 150 193 6.50% 7.50% 7.00% 6.80% 6.30%
Bus 400 515 6.50% 7.50% 7.00% 6.80% 6.30%
HCV 1500 1930 6.50% 7.50% 7.00% 6.80% 6.30%
Total PCUs 7375 9505
1-Oct- 1-Jan- 1-Apr- 1-Jul- 1-Oct- 1-Jan- 1-Apr- 1-Jul- 1-Oct- 1-Jan- 1-Apr-
Quarter Beginning 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 11
0.53% 5.03% 11.83% 16.65% 9.91% 11.50% 20.23% 19.49% 4.63% 0.21% 100.00%
Total Cost 1.30 12.43 29.23 41.11 24.47 28.40 49.96 48.15 11.44 0.51 247.00
Retention Money Repayment 0.00 0.00
Escalation 0.11 1.25 3.44 5.53 3.72 4.82 9.36 9.90 2.56 40.69
Contingency 0.03 0.25 0.58 0.82 0.49 0.57 1.00 0.96 0.23 0.01 4.94
Vehicles(Ambulance, crane, jeeps
etc) 0.2 0.20
Supervision Charges 0.00 0.39 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.14 1.79
Preliminary Expenses 0.86 0.44 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.35
Preoperative Expenses 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.02 0.49
Mobilisation Advance 0.00 0.00
Interest During Construction 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.48 1.28 1.98 2.95 4.22 5.15 5.54 21.60
System for Toll Plaza 1.00 1.00
Lenders Fee 1.69 1.69
Insurance
Charges 0.00 0.02 0.06 0.11 0.15 0.19 0.26 0.33 0.36 0.37 1.86
Total Project
Cost 3.92 13.68 31.40 46.19 32.16 35.09 59.22 63.27 27.32 10.35 322.60
Retention Money 0.00% 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Adjustment of Mobilisation Advance 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Balance Mobilisation Advance 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Net Project Cost 3.92 13.68 31.40 46.19 32.16 35.09 59.22 63.27 27.32 10.35 322.60
Year Beginning 1-Apr-11 1-Apr-12 1-Apr-13 1-Apr-14 1-Apr-15 1-Apr-16 1-Apr-17 1-Apr-18
Cars 780 838 901 969 1042 1120 1204 1294
LCV 219 235 253 272 292 313 334 358
MultiAxle Vehicles 164 176 190 204 219 234 251 268
Bus 437 470 505 543 584 625 669 716
HCV 1640 1763 1896 2038 2190 2344 2508 2683
Total PCU's 8079 8685 9336 10037 10789 11550 12364 13235
Total Traffic 18662 20062 21567 23184 24923 26679 28559 30572
Year Beginning 1-Apr-07 1-Apr-08 1-Apr-09 1-Apr-10 1-Apr-11 1-Apr-12 1-Apr-13 1-Apr-14 1-Apr-15
Cars ( 1 PCU) 34.43 36.58 38.87 41.30 43.88 46.62 49.54 52.63 55.92
LCV 60.26 64.02 68.02 72.28 76.79 81.59 86.69 92.11 97.87
MultiAxle Vehicles 120.51 128.05 136.05 144.55 153.59 163.18 173.38 184.22 195.73
Bus 120.51 128.05 136.05 144.55 153.59 163.18 173.38 184.22 195.73
HCV 120.51 128.05 136.05 144.55 153.59 163.18 173.38 184.22 195.73
Year Beginning 1-Apr-07 1-Apr-08 1-Apr-09 1-Apr-10 1-Apr-11 1-Apr-12 1-Apr-13 1-Apr-14 1-Apr-15
Cars ( 1 PCU) 35.00 35.00 40.00 40.00 45.00 45.00 50.00 55.00 55.00
LCV 60.00 65.00 70.00 70.00 75.00 80.00 85.00 90.00 100.00
MultiAxle Vehicles 120.00 130.00 135.00 145.00 155.00 165.00 175.00 185.00 195.00
Bus 120.00 130.00 135.00 145.00 155.00 165.00 175.00 185.00 195.00
HCV 120.00 130.00 135.00 145.00 155.00 165.00 175.00 185.00 195.00
1-Apr-16 1-Apr-17 1-Apr-18 1-Apr-19 1-Apr-20 1-Apr-21 1-Apr-22 1-Apr-23 1-Apr-24 1-Apr-25 1-Apr-26 1-Apr-27
59.42 63.13 67.08 71.27 75.73 80.46 85.49 90.83 96.51 102.54 108.95 115.76
103.98 110.48 117.39 124.72 132.52 140.80 149.60 158.95 168.89 179.44 190.66 202.57
207.97 220.97 234.78 249.45 265.04 281.61 299.21 317.91 337.77 358.89 381.32 405.15
207.97 220.97 234.78 249.45 265.04 281.61 299.21 317.91 337.77 358.89 381.32 405.15
207.97 220.97 234.78 249.45 265.04 281.61 299.21 317.91 337.77 358.89 381.32 405.15
1-Apr-16 1-Apr-17 1-Apr-18 1-Apr-19 1-Apr-20 1-Apr-21 1-Apr-22 1-Apr-23 1-Apr-24 1-Apr-25 1-Apr-26 1-Apr-27
60.00 65.00 65.00 70.00 75.00 80.00 85.00 90.00 95.00 105.00 110.00 115.00
105.00 110.00 115.00 125.00 135.00 140.00 150.00 160.00 170.00 180.00 190.00 205.00
210.00 220.00 235.00 250.00 265.00 280.00 300.00 320.00 340.00 360.00 380.00 405.00
210.00 220.00 235.00 250.00 265.00 280.00 300.00 320.00 340.00 360.00 380.00 405.00
210.00 220.00 235.00 250.00 265.00 280.00 300.00 320.00 340.00 360.00 380.00 405.00
90
Year Beginning 1-Apr-11 1-Apr-12 1-Apr-13 1-Apr-14 1-Apr-15 1-Apr-16 1-Apr-17 1-Apr-18
Cars 1.71 1.84 2.26 2.43 2.93 3.15 3.77 4.45
LCV 1.14 1.32 1.53 1.65 1.90 2.17 2.46 2.79
MultiAxle Vehicles 0.84 0.98 1.09 1.26 1.45 1.65 1.87 2.11
Bus 3.83 4.46 4.98 5.75 6.61 7.53 8.54 9.66
HCV 13.17 15.34 17.12 19.77 22.72 25.88 29.37 33.22
Total Toll Revenue 20.69 23.94 26.98 30.85 35.61 40.37 46.01 52.24
Year Beginning 1-Apr-11 1-Apr-12 1-Apr-13 1-Apr-14 1-Apr-15 1-Apr-16 1-Apr-17 1-Apr-18
91
Net Toll Revenue 20.69 23.94 26.98 30.85 35.61 40.37 46.01 52.24
Less : O & M Expenses for initial 2 lane 3.23 3.43 3.64 3.87 4.11 28.51 4.64 4.93
Profit before Depn., Interest and Tax 17.46 20.51 23.34 26.99 31.50 11.87 41.37 47.31
Less : Book Depreciation @ 5.59% 18.03 18.03 18.03 18.03 18.03 18.03 18.03 18.03
: Interest on Rupee Debt 22.58 22.58 22.58 22.32 21.49 20.31 18.75 16.77
Profit before Tax -23.15 -20.10 -17.27 -13.36 -8.02 -26.47 4.59 12.51
Less : Tax 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Profit after Tax -23.15 -20.10 -17.27 -13.36 -8.02 -26.47 4.59 12.51
Cumulative Profit After tax -23.15 -43.25 -60.52 -73.88 -81.90 -108.37 -103.77 -91.26
Year Beginning 1-Oct-08 1-Apr-09 1-Apr-10 1-Apr-11 1-Apr-12 1-Apr-13 1-Apr-14 1-Apr-15 1-Apr-16
Total outflow excl. IDC 17.60 141.11 142.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Inflows
PBDIT 17.46 20.51 23.34 26.99 31.50 11.87
Less Tax 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Net Inflow -17.60 -141.11 -142.29 17.46 20.51 23.34 26.99 31.50 11.87
1-Apr-17 1-Apr-18 1-Apr-19 1-Apr-20 1-Apr-21 1-Apr-22 1-Apr-23 1-Apr-24 1-Apr-25 1-Apr-26 1-Apr-27
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
41.37 47.31 53.62 62.26 37.52 80.01 91.61 104.42 118.31 135.28 153.92
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 36.97
41.37 47.31 53.62 62.26 37.52 80.01 91.61 104.42 118.31 135.28 116.95
93
Year Beginning 1-Apr-11 1-Apr-12 1-Apr-13 1-Apr-14 1-Apr-15 1-Apr-16 1-Apr-17 1-Apr-18
Profit before Depn., Interest but after Tax 17.46 20.51 23.34 26.99 31.50 11.87 41.37 47.31
Add fresh inflows through unsecured loans 8.51 5.46 0.00 4.43 0.00 22.99 0.00 0.00
Sub-total 25.97 25.97 23.34 31.42 31.50 34.85 41.37 47.31
Interest Payment on first loan 22.58 22.58 22.58 22.32 21.49 20.31 18.75 16.77
Interest Payment on second loan 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Debt Repayment for first loan 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.00 7.50 10.00 13.00 16.00
Debt Repayment for second loan 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sub-total for first loan 22.58 22.58 22.58 27.32 28.99 30.31 31.75 32.77
Sub-total for second loan 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total Repayment 22.58 22.58 22.58 27.32 28.99 30.31 31.75 32.77
DSCR for the loan 1.15 1.15 1.03 1.15 1.09 1.15 1.30 1.44
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
RESPONSE SHEETS
95
Thesis Topic: Financial Viability Analysis of the Road Sector Projects in India.
Date: 22/05/08
Progress of the work : I have collected data that is required for my thesis but still
preparing the questionnaire. I have also met my guide to help me out for the same, as of
now I am sending the introduction of my thesis.
Introduction
The road sector has been, and will be for a long time, the dominant form of transport for
freight and passenger movement throughout the world. In India the decade of 90s
witnessed a series of economic reforms. The government since then is committed to
second generation reforms aimed at achieving an annual growth rate of 7 to 8 percent.
Such acceleration in growth is bound to create a massive demand for infrastructure
services such as power, telecom, roads, ports, railways and civil aviation.
Over the last few years, the road development scenario has changed rapidly. Until 1991,
government was exclusively responsible for the development and maintenance of the
road sector. In the absence of user charges, the road sector in India has relied entirely on
the budgetary allocation and funding by multilateral agencies, which stagnated at about 3
percent of the total plan expenditure during the seventh and eighth five-year plans.
The major initiative taken in the road sector was the constitution of the Central Road
Fund with the introduction of a cess on fuel. Over the years this has become the major
source of financing highways development programme. The revenue from the cess has
increased from Rs. 2000 crores at time of its inception to Rs. 5000-6000 crores per
annum.
The era of 90s also witnessed major changes in the policies. To facilitate & induct the
capital from private sector into road development, policies were amended and several
96
incentives were introduced. Further to give proper direction to highway development, the
National Highways Authority of India was made operational. A clear mandate was set for
NHAI. A concrete plan of development was announced for National Highways and Rural
Roads in the form of NHDP and Pradhan Mantri Gramin Sadak Yojana. It has thrown
excellent Business opportunities for contractors, equipment manufacturers and suppliers,
consultants, road developers, investors and managers. It is also expected to give a boost
to the economy through increased demands for raw materials and job opportunities.
However, it has also thrown challenges. Challenges, not to garner resources, but to ensure
optimum utilization of available resources, challenges to domestic contracting industry to
modernize and upgrade to meet international competition, challenges to domestic
equipment manufacturers to compete with multinational companies in the liberal import
regime and finally challenges for the government to keep the momentum high as also to
mobilize private sector participation.
Scope of thesis:-
Study of the past trends in financing of the road sector projects in India with a special
emphasis on terms of financing, institutions involved in financing of the road sector
projects, role of World Bank, ADB, etc.
o Risks perceived by lenders in financing of the road sector projects and ways to
mitigate these risks.
o Public Private Partnership: Role of the private sector in the development of the
road projects in India.
o Also prepare a Model to show the Financial Viability of the Road Sector Project.
transport agriculture produce from village to nearby markets. Major District Roads
provide the secondary function of linkage between main roads and rural roads.
Indian Road Network
CATEGORIES LENGTH (KMS)
National Highways 58,112*
State Highways 1,37,119
Major District Roads 4,70,000
Village & Other Roads 26,50,000
Freight transport by road has risen from 6 billion tonne km (BTK) in 1951 to 400 BTK in
1995 and 800 BTK in 2001. Passenger traffic has risen from 23 billion-passenger km
(BPK) to 1,500 BPK in 1995 and 3000 BPK in 2001. The annual growth of road traffic is
expected to be 9% to 10%. Current boom in the automobile sector may even increase the
future growth rate of road traffic. While the traffic has been growing at a fast pace, it
has not been possible to provide matching investment in the road sector, due to the
competing demands from other sectors, especially the social sectors, and this has led to a
large number of deficiencies in the network. Many sections of the highways are in need
of capacity augmentation, pavement strengthening, rehabilitation of bridges,
improvement of riding quality, provision of traffic safety measures, etc. There are
congested road sections passing through towns where bypasses are required. Many old
bridges are in need of rehabilitation/replacement along with capacity augmentation.
The main roads have not kept pace with traffic in terms of quality also. Out of the total
1,95,231 km. Length of National and State Highways only 2% of their length is four-
lane, 34% two-lane, and 64% single lane. As far as NHs are concerned, only 5% of
their length is four-lane, 80% two-lane and the balance 15% continues to be single
lane.
Thus the road sector, in spite of its high priority is adversely affected by the poor quality
and service levels. The poor quality of Indian roads is highlighted by congestion, old
fatigued bridges and culverts, railway crossings, low safety, no bypasses and slow traffic
movement.
99
My thesis guide pointed out that some of the figures was not updated and were not the
latest ones. Thus I tried my best to get those updated and some are left, for which I am
still working and will be updated soon.
Thesis Topic: Financial Viability Analysis of the Road Sector Projects in India.
Date: 22/05/08
Progress of the work : I have collected data that is required for my thesis but still
preparing the questionnaire. I have also met my guide to help me out for the same, as of
now I am sending the introduction of my thesis.
Introduction
The road sector has been, and will be for a long time, the dominant form of transport for
freight and passenger movement throughout the world. In India the decade of 90s
witnessed a series of economic reforms. The government since then is committed to
second generation reforms aimed at achieving an annual growth rate of 7 to 8 percent.
Such acceleration in growth is bound to create a massive demand for infrastructure
services such as power, telecom, roads, ports, railways and civil aviation.
Over the last few years, the road development scenario has changed rapidly. Until 1991,
government was exclusively responsible for the development and maintenance of the
road sector. In the absence of user charges, the road sector in India has relied entirely on
the budgetary allocation and funding by multilateral agencies, which stagnated at about 3
percent of the total plan expenditure during the seventh and eighth five-year plans.
The major initiative taken in the road sector was the constitution of the Central Road
Fund with the introduction of a cess on fuel. Over the years this has become the major
source of financing highways development programme. The revenue from the cess has
increased from Rs. 2000 crores at time of its inception to Rs. 5000-6000 crores per
annum.
The era of 90s also witnessed major changes in the policies. To facilitate & induct the
capital from private sector into road development, policies were amended and several
incentives were introduced. Further to give proper direction to highway development, the
National Highways Authority of India was made operational. A clear mandate was set for
NHAI. A concrete plan of development was announced for National Highways and Rural
Roads in the form of NHDP and Pradhan Mantri Gramin Sadak Yojana. It has thrown
excellent Business opportunities for contractors, equipment manufacturers and suppliers,
consultants, road developers, investors and managers. It is also expected to give a boost
to the economy through increased demands for raw materials and job opportunities.
However, it has also thrown challenges. Challenges, not to garner resources, but to ensure
optimum utilization of available resources, challenges to domestic contracting industry to
modernize and upgrade to meet international competition, challenges to domestic
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Scope of thesis:-
Study of the past trends in financing of the road sector projects in India with a special
emphasis on terms of financing, institutions involved in financing of the road sector
projects, role of World Bank, ADB, etc.
o Risks perceived by lenders in financing of the road sector projects and ways to
mitigate these risks.
o Public Private Partnership: Role of the private sector in the development of the
road projects in India.
o Also prepare a Model to show the Financial Viability of the Road Sector Project.
Freight transport by road has risen from 6 billion tonne km (BTK) in 1951 to 400 BTK in
1995 and 800 BTK in 2001. Passenger traffic has risen from 23 billion-passenger km
(BPK) to 1,500 BPK in 1995 and 3000 BPK in 2001. The annual growth of road traffic is
expected to be 9% to 10%. Current boom in the automobile sector may even increase the
future growth rate of road traffic. While the traffic has been growing at a fast pace, it
has not been possible to provide matching investment in the road sector, due to the
competing demands from other sectors, especially the social sectors, and this has led to a
large number of deficiencies in the network. Many sections of the highways are in need
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The main roads have not kept pace with traffic in terms of quality also. Out of the total
1,95,231 km. Length of National and State Highways only 2% of their length is four-
lane, 34% two-lane, and 64% single lane. As far as NHs are concerned, only 5% of
their length is four-lane, 80% two-lane and the balance 15% continues to be single
lane.
Thus the road sector, in spite of its high priority is adversely affected by the poor quality
and service levels. The poor quality of Indian roads is highlighted by congestion, old
fatigued bridges and culverts, railway crossings, low safety, no bypasses and slow traffic
movement.
The poor condition of roads has a telling effect on the economy. Movement of traffic on
poor and congested roads increases the cost of operation of vehicles as well as loss of
valuable time and also contributing to high rate of road accidents. Our commercial
vehicles are able to make only 250-300 kms in single day against 500-600 kms in
developed countries. It has been roughly estimated that a saving of Rs. 25,000 crores per
year could be brought about by road improvements. These savings would be in the form
of reduced fuel consumption, lower wear and tear of vehicles and less damage to tyres.
These can be avoided by modernizing the roads.
My thesis guide pointed out that some of the figures was not updated and were not the
latest ones. Thus I tried my best to get those updated and some are left, for which I am
still working and will be updated soon.
Thesis Topic: Financial Viability Analysis of the Road Sector Projects in India.
Date: 1/06/08
I would be working on secondary data because of the fact that the various financial
aspects of the projects like the Projects Initial Investment, the Payment Pattern, duration
of the project, Project IRR, etc. have to be analysed to show the viability of such projects.
For this purpose I will have to indepth and exhaustive study of all the available secondary
data like journals, websites and other related documents.
Thesis Topic: Financial Viability Analysis of the Road Sector Projects in India.
Date: 05/06/08
Findings- Private sector is still reluctant to invest in the infrastructure projects because
of the high risk of traffic volume and long gestation period.
Government departments have abundant technical expertise but there is a lack in financial
management. Infrastructure financing is in its recent stage, only few projects have been
completed under these implementing models, the agreements or documents related to
these have not been scrutinized in the court of law or no judgements have been passed
yet.
Limited foreign funding in infrastructure projects.
Thesis Topic: Financial Viability Analysis of the Road Sector Projects in India.
Date: 6/06/08
Name: Vijay Garodia
Batch: SS/ 06-08
Alumni Id: DS68-F181
Phone No: 9971619555
Email Id: vijaygarodia@gmail.com
Economic losses due to poor conditions of roads, The dwindling Public Sector
Outlay on Transport, Agencies involved in Road Sector Development in India,
Road Development Plans, Current status.
Trends in Road Sector Financing- Traditional Financing Mechanism,
Budgetary Allocations, Central Road Fund, Foreign Aid to Road Sector, Private
Sector Participation, Government of India initiatives,
Implementation Models- BOT (Toll Based), BOT (Annuity), Govt. owned SPV,
MOU (Negotiated Deal).
Thesis Topic: Financial Viability Analysis of the Road Sector Projects in India.
Date: 09/06/08
Name: Vijay Garodia
Batch: SS/ 06-08
Alumni Id: DS68-F181
Phone No: 9971619555
Email Id: vijaygarodia@gmail.com