Clean Energy For New York

CleanEnergyforNewYork
ReplacementEnergyandCapacityResources
fortheIndianPointEnergyCenterUnderNew
YorkCleanEnergyStandard(CES)

PreparedforRiverkeeperandNaturalResourcesDefense
Council
February23,2017

AUTHORS
BobFagan
AliceNapoleon
SpencerFields
PatrickLuckow

485MassachusettsAvenue,Suite2
Cambridge,Massachusetts02139

617.661.3248|www.synapseenergy.com

C ONTENTS
1. INTRODUCTIONANDSUMMARYFINDINGS...................................................................2
1.1. Introduction......................................................................................................................2
1.2. SummaryFindings.............................................................................................................3
ReplacementEnergy..................................................................................................................3
ReplacementCapacity...............................................................................................................4
Costs..........................................................................................................................................5
CO2Emissions............................................................................................................................7
Reliability...................................................................................................................................8
2. MODELINGIPECREPLACEMENTENERGYANDCAPACITY................................................9
2.1. ModelingMethodologyandScenarios...............................................................................9
Methodology.............................................................................................................................9
Scenarios.................................................................................................................................10
2.2. ModelingAssumptions....................................................................................................11
Summary.................................................................................................................................11
EnergyEfficiency.....................................................................................................................14
2.3. KeyModelingResults......................................................................................................17
Energy......................................................................................................................................17
Capacity...................................................................................................................................28
Costs........................................................................................................................................32
CO2Emissions..........................................................................................................................35
3. CAPACITYANDRELIABILITY....................................................................................38
4. CONCLUSIONS.....................................................................................................40
APPENDIX..................................................................................................................42
TheReEDSModel.....................................................................................................................42
NewYorksCleanEnergyStandard...........................................................................................43
DetailedModelingResultsAdditionalTables.........................................................................44
SynapseEnergyEconomics,Inc. CleanEnergyforNewYorki

1. INTRODUCTIONANDSUMMARYFINDINGS
1.1. Introduction
SynapseEnergyEconomics(Synapse)wasengagedbyRiverkeeperandtheNaturalResourcesDefense
Council(NRDC)toanalyzereplacementenergyandcapacityresourcesassociatedwiththeretirementof
theIndianPointEnergyCenter(IPEC).Thisreportprovidessuchanalysis.SynapseutilizedtheNational
1
RenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)ReEDS(RegionalEnergyDeploymentSystem)modelingsystem to
estimateaneconomicallyoptimalexpansionofrenewableenergyresourcesinNewYorkthatwould(i)
meetCleanEnergyStandard(CES)requirements;(ii)achieverequiredenergyandcapacityrequirements
withIPECretiredsoastomaintainreliability,and(iii)tracktheenergyproductionandcapacity
2
expansioncostsofmeetingallNewYorkStaterequirementsduringtheperiod2016to2030. Using
ReEDSmodelingresults,weestimatedthe20162030trajectoriesofenergygenerationbytypeandthe
relatedcarbondioxide(CO2)emissionsinNewYorkunderIPECretirementscenarios.Weincluded
energyandemissionsbothfrominstategenerationandfromimports.Weseparatelyaccountedforthe
costsofexistingcapacityresourcesandthelevelsofenergyefficiencyassumedtomaterializeinNew
3
YorkintheCESorder.
Inourreferencecaseretirement
InearlyJanuary2017,theGovernorandtheAttorneyGeneralofNew scenario,alignedwithNewYork
YorkState,alongwithRiverkeeper,announcedanagreementwith StatesCleanEnergyStandard,
4 IndianPointEnergyCenters2016
EntergyfortheclosureoftheIPECfacility. IPECsretirementwill
levelofoutputisfullydisplacedby
occurduringthetransitiontogreateruseofrenewableelectricity cleanenergyresourcesby2023.
productioninNewYorkState,andduringaperiodofexpected
increasedefficiencyofelectricityuse.Analysisoftheelectricity Moreaggressiveuseofenergy
efficiencyresourcesleadstolower
requirementsinNewYorkintheabsenceofIndianPointmustdirectly
costsandemissionsthanisseenin
accountforthisplannedtransition,whichisdescribedintheNewYork thereferencescenario,andenables
PublicServiceCommissions(NYPSC)ordersandrelateddocuments fulldisplacementofIPECs2016
ontheCleanEnergyStandard(uponwhichthisreportrelies). levelofenergywithcleanenergy
resourcesby2022,thefirstfullyear
ofIPECretirement.
1
SeeSection2.1andtheappendixforadescriptionoftheNRELReEDSmodel.
2
Wemodeledtheperiod20162020attwoyearintervals;thuswehaveannualresultsfor2016,2018,2020,etc.Allinterim
periodresultsarebasedoninterpolation.
3
TheCESorderassumesannualincrementalsavingsthroughenergyefficiencyofroughly1.5percentofoverallelectricenergy
demand,resultinginareductionfrom~160kGWhin2016to~146kGWhin2030.However,theCESorderdoesnotinclude
anymechanismtoensurethattheselevelsofenergyefficiencyareachieved,incontrasttothebindingandenforceable50
percentby2030renewableenergytargetenactedbytheCESorder.NorhasthePublicServiceCommissionenactedanyother
policiesoutsidethescopeoftheCESordertoensurethatthestateachievestheselevelsofenergyefficiency.Rather,existing
policies(whichconsistprimarilyofEnergyEfficiencyTransitionImplementationPlan(ETIP)targetsandbudgetsforeachofthe
statesinvestorownedutilities)guaranteeonlyasmallfractionofthis1.5percentannualincrementalsavings.
4
NY.gov.2017.GovernorCuomoAnnounces10thProposalofthe2017StateoftheState:ClosureoftheIndianPointNuclear
PowerPlantby2021.PressRelease,January9.Availableat:https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governorcuomo
announces10thproposal2017statestateclosureindianpointnuclearpower.
SynapseEnergyEconomics,Inc. CleanEnergyforNewYork2

Thisreportcontainssummaryfindings,whichfollowthisintroductorysection;adescriptionofthe
methods,assumptions,andresultsofourenergymodeling,whichincludesdiscussionofkeyretirement
issues;asectiononNewYorkStatereliabilityandcapacityissuesafterIPECretirement;and,lastly,our
conclusionsconcerningthisanalysis.
1.2. SummaryFindings
Oursummaryfindingsarelistedbelow.Themodelingresultsanddiscussionsectionsofthisreport
containfurtherdescription,numericaltabulation,andexplanationsupportingthesefindings.
ReplacementEnergy
IncreasesinthepresenceofdistributedsolarPVresourcesandassumedlevelsofenergy
efficiencyunderNewYorksCleanEnergyStandardleadtocontinuingdecreasesinnet
5
load. Thisresultsinareducedneedforgridsupplied(i.e.,utilityscale)energy
resources,eitherrenewableornonrenewable,andsourcedinstateorimported.
PursuanttotheCleanEnergyStandardsrequirements,continuingincreasesingrid
suppliedrenewableenergycombinewiththelowernetloadtocauseongoingdeclines
inthecombineduseofinstatefossilgenerationandimportssourcedfromPJM,
6
Ontario,andNewEngland(nonQuebecimports). Thisdeclineoccursinbothour
referenceIPECInServicescenarioandinallIPECretirementscenarios.
By2022,thefirstfullyearofIPECretirement,levelsofenergyefficiencyassumedinthe
CESwillprovide6Terawatthours(TWh,ormillionsofmegawatthours(MWh)).Thisis
morethanonethirdoftheoutputoftheIPECstation.By2030,thoseassumedincreases
intheefficientuseofenergywilllowerdemandby91percent(or15TWh)ofIPEC
output.Increasesinrenewableenergyproduction,coupledwiththismoreefficientuse
ofenergy,equatesto83percentofIPECsoutputby2022.By2023,assumednew
energyefficiencyandrequirednewrenewableenergyprovideasmuchoutputasIPEC
wouldhaveproduced.
Underaggressivebutcosteffectiveandpotentiallyattainableincreasesinenergy
7
efficiencybeyondthelevelsassumedintheCleanEnergyStandard, allofthe
consumptionotherwisemetwithIPECstationoutputcouldbemetbymoreefficient
energyusealoneby2023.ActuallylockingintheCESsassumedlevelsofenergy
efficiencyandgoingbeyondthoselevelscouldresultinefficiencygainsthataremore
thandoubleIPECsenergyoutputby2030.
5
NetloadasusedinthisreportistheloadnetofenergyefficiencyresourcesandnetofbehindthemetersolarPVresources.
6
ImportedenergyfromnonQuebecsourcesandinstatefossilenergyrepresentsthemarginalenergysourceforNewYork.
7
TheCleanEnergyStandardassumesarampingupofenergyefficiencyprovisioninNewYorktoattaintheenergysaving
equivalentofanincremental1.5%/yearofretailsalesby2025(2.2TWh/yearby2025).Theaggressiveenergyefficiency
scenariomodeledinouranalysisrampsuptoanincremental3.0%/yearofretailsalesby2021(4.6TWh/yearby2021,but
declininginabsolutetermsthereafterastotalstateloadsdecrease).

ThecompletionoftheChamplainHudsonPowerExpress(CHPE)providesoneoptionfor
acceleratedproductionoflowcarbonenergybeyondtheCleanEnergyStandards
8
requirementsandcouldsupplymorethan40percentoftheoutputoftheIPECstation.
AcombinationofCESmandatedincreasesinrenewableenergy,CHPE(orequivalent
renewableproduction),andtheCESsassumedlevelsofenergyefficiencycansupplant
1.5timesthefulloutputoftheIPECstationby2024.
9
ComparedtoareferencecasewithIPECinservice, aggressiveenergyefficiency
implementationandoperationofCHPEtogetherwillfullymakeuptheoutputfromIPEC
by2026.IftherewerenochangestoenergyefficiencybeyondassumedCESlevels,
CHPEwouldmakeuproughly43percentofIPECsoutput.Inthislastcase,inorderto
fullysupplanttheIPECstationoutputandavoidincreasesinnonQuebecimported
energyorinstatefossilenergyincreases,additionalrenewablesbeyondtheCES
requirementswouldbeneededandwouldcostmorethananaggressiveenergy
efficiencyscenario.
ReplacementCapacity
TheReEDSmodelingsystemaddsrenewablecapacitytotheNewYorksysteminevery
year(2016through2030)toaccountforthepresenceoftheincreasingrenewableCES
requirements.TheseadditionsofsolarandwindenergyservetomeetthoseCESenergy
needs,buttheyalsoprovidealevelofcapacityinlinewiththecapabilitiesofthese
resourcestomeetpeakload:onshorewindprovidesroughly15percentofnameplate
installedcapability;offshorewindprovidesroughly30percentofnameplateinstalled
capacityby2030;andsolarprovidesabout40percentofinstalledcapability.Wealso
incorporatetheadditionofpreviouslycommittedgasfiredgenerationintheregionin
10
2018.
AllIPECretirementcasesincorporatelevelsofenergyefficiencyatleastequaltothe
levelsassumedintheCES.Thisinclusionleadstoloweryearoveryearpeakloadlevels
8
TheChamplainHudsonPowerExpressisaproposed1,000MWHVDCcableconnectionbetweenQueens,NewYorkand
Quebecthatcouldprovideontheorderofupto8TWhperyear,orroughlyhalfofIPECsannualoutput.Wemodelitas
providing7TWh,orroughly43percent,ofIPECsoutputintwoofourretirementscenarios.Whileouraccountingincludesit
asazeroemittingresource,wedothisonlyasamodelingconvention.Itsoutputdoesnotcontributetorenewableenergy
requirementsundertheCES50by30standardinourmodelingandtabulations,thoughwedoincludeitinaggregationsof
renewableenergyinsometables.
9
ThisreferencecaseincludesCESlevelsofenergyefficiency,whicharehigherthancurrentstatusquolevelsofenergy
efficiencyimplementationinNewYork.Inthisregard,ourbaselineanalysisalreadyassumesanincreasedtrajectoryof
energyefficiencygainsinNewYork.
10
AssumedgasfiredadditionsincludetheCPVValleyunit,at650MW;andagenericcombustionturbineunitat90MW.
Minorcapacityadditions,retirements,andupgradesoccurandareconsideredinNewYorkonayeartoyearbasis;wedo
notattemptadetailedreconciliationofthesevariablefactors,butinsteadfixinplacealevelofnewgastorepresenta
reasonableproxyforoverallsystemeffectslikelytobeinplaceby2018.

reflectedinthemodelsresourcetrajectoryfor20162030,andcommensuratereduced
11
needforincrementalcapacityresources.
Asaresult,ouranalysisanticipatesnoneedforothernewcapacityresourcesbeyond
theresourcesnotedabovetomeetNewYorkStateresourceadequacyneedsineither
2020(theIPECunit2retirementyear)or2021(theIPECunit3retirementyear).The
12
sameholdsfor2022,thefirstfullyearinwhichbothIPECunitswillberetired. Itisonly
whenasignificantportionoftheoldergasfiredcapacityisestimatedtoretireinlater
years(duetoage)thatnewgasfiredresourcesaredeployedinthemodel.Thisoccurs
ataleveldependentonthetrajectoryofpeakloadandthepaceofretirementofolder
units.Underaggressiveenergyefficiencydeploymentscenarios,theneedfornew
capacityresourcesafterIPECsretirementislessthanseeninthereferenceCES
assumedEElevelcaseandislimitedtoonlythelastyearoftheanalysis,2030.Wenote
thatunderdifferentsetsofresourcecostassumptions,especiallyincludingthe
comparativecostsofgasfiredcombustionturbinesversusstorageresources,actual
resourcescenarioscoulddevelopthatwouldresultinnoadditionalnewgascapacity
13
buildsinlateryears.
Localcapacityrequirementsaredifferentfromtheaggregatecapacityrequirementsfor
NewYorkState,butthecurrentandneartermforeseensurplusofNewYorkState
capacity,bothlocationalandsystemwideintheNewYorkControlArea(NYCA),
providesasufficientbuffersuchthatnoadditionalnewcapacityresourceswereadded
toouranalysisotherthantheexpansionsresultingfromtheReEDSmodeling.Our
analysisassumesretirementofbothinstatecoalresources(allbytheendof2020as
committedtobyGovernorCuomo)andanumberofoldergasandoilsteamresources
overthecourseoftheplanningperiod(20162030).However,wenotethatifrequired
underfuturelocalcapacityrequirements,someoftheseresourcescouldbeheldin
operationforlongerperiodsthanouranalysisreflects.
Costs
ThecostofsupplyingwholesaleelectricityinNewYorkafterIPECretirementwilldependonthemixof
resourcesthatwillbeinplaceinNewYorkintheyearsafterIPECisoutofservice,thecostattributesof
theseresources,andthetotalloadinthestate.Wehaveestimatedthesecostsusingthreeanalytical
mechanisms.First,weutilizetheReEDSmodelingtooltoestimatethetotalcoststobuildrenewable
capacityrequiredtomeetNewYorksCES(and,forscenarioyearswithnewnonrenewableadditions,
11
IfassumedlevelsofCESenergyefficiencyarenotattained,longerretentionofolder,lessefficientfossilunitsandapossible
needfornearertermconstructionofnewresourcescouldresult.
12
Section3ofthisreportprovidesadditionaldiscussiononcapacityandreliabilityissues.
13
Wedidnotrunanunlimitednumberofresourcescenarioswithdifferentassumptionsforrenewableandstorageresource
costs,ortheeffectofpublicpoliciesthatmaypromotethesealternativestonewgasresources.Thisisacritically
importantareathatrequiresfurtherresearchandanalysis.

14
thecostsofthoseresources). ReEDSalsoestimatesthefixedandvariableproductioncostsofmeeting
15
load. Second,weestimatetheprogramcostsassociatedwithincreasingthelevelofenergyefficiency
tothelevelassumedintheCES,ortomoreaggressivelevels.Third,wetrackthequantityofexisting
capacityresourcesthatwillcontinuetoreceivecapacitymarketrevenuesthroughtheNewYork
IndependentSystemOperator(NYISO)capacitymarket,andvaluethatcapacityusinganestimateofthe
weightedaveragecapacitypricethatthoseresourceswouldattract.Wetrackthesecostsacrossboth
ourretirementandourIPECInServicescenarios.
Ourcostcomparisonisnotmeanttobedefinitiveintheabsolutesense;ratherweuseaconsistent
frameworkacrossthedifferentscenariosinordertoascertainrelativecostpatterns.Weestimateanet
presentvalue(NPV)oftotalcostsoverthe20162030timeframetoallowfordirectcomparisonacross
scenarios(weacknowledgethatwedonotdirectlyaccountforendeffectsinourcosttabulations
i.e.,theongoingeffectspast2030ofresourcesinstalledduringourmodelingtimeframebutwedonot
thinktheywouldchangetheessenceofourfindings).TheseNPVsareseeninTable1,below.Section2
containsadditionaldetailonthepatternofcostsovertime,andthedifferentcomponentsofcoststhat
makeupourestimate.
Themostcosteffectivereplacementresourcescenarioisanincreaseinthelevelofenergyefficiency
procurementinNewYorkStateaboveandbeyondassumedCESlevels,towardsthemostaggressive,
achievableenergyefficiencylevelsthatNYSERDAandNewYorkutilitiescanachieve.Increasedlevelsof
energyefficiencyinvestmentandcleardirectionfromtheNYPSCtoensurethoselevelsinfact
materializeastheyhaveforrenewablesintheCESwillreducethecostofachievingthe50percentby
2030(50by30)CESrequirement.Thesehigherlevelsofenergyefficiency,combinedwithenergyfrom
theproposedCHPEproject,leadtoslightlyhighercosts(abovethereferenceCESassumedenergy
efficiencycase)thanthescenariowithonlyaggressivelevelsofenergyefficiency,alsoseeninTable1,
below;butthisscenarioalsoresultsinsteeperreductionsintotalemissionsassociatedwithimportsto
NewYorkfromnonQuebecsources,whicharenotdirectlyvalued(orcostedout)intheReEDSmodel
16
runs.
14
WedonotattempttomaptherecoveryofthesecoststothecapacitymarketmechanismthatexistsinNewYork,butrather
wepresumethatthetotalcoststobuildtheseresourceswillberecoveredfromNewYorkload.ReEDSdoesnotaccountfor
capacitymarketcostrecoveryfromexistingcapacityresources.
15
OurcomparativeanalysisusesproductioncostsfromtheReEDSmodelingpackagetogaugeoveralldifferencesinenergy
costsbetweenscenarios.
16
EnergyimportedfromnonRGGI(RegionalGreenhouseGasInitiative)statesisnotsubjecttotheRGGIcapandtherefore
generatorsdonothavetopayforallowances,consistentwithcurrentRGGIregulations.

Table1.ComparisonofNPVoftotalsystemcostsbyscenario,2016$millions
Scenario NPV,$millions,20162030 ChangeinNPV(%)
ReferenceCESAssumedEEIPEC
102,724
InService
RetireReferenceCESAssumed
103,393 0.7
EE
RetireReferenceCESAssumed
104,925 2.1
EE+CHPE
RetireHighEE 102,892 0.2
RetireHighEE+CHPE 104,496 1.7

Note:NPVata5percentrealdiscountrate.CHPEcostsassumedtoaverage$85/MWh(levelizedcost,
$2016).EmissionscoststhatcouldbeattributedtononQuebecimportenergyarenotincluded.Post2030
effectsnotincluded.
Table1showsthatourhighoraggressiveenergyefficiencyscenario(withIPECretiredandenergy
efficiencyimplementationexceedingassumedCESlevels)resultsina15yearnetpresentvaluecost
17
increaseof0.2percent(forwholesaleenergyandcapacitycosts) aboveareferencecasewithIPECin
18
service(andassumedCESenergyefficiencylevels). WithenergyefficiencyatCESassumed
implementationlevels,theIPECretiredcaseleadstoa0.7percentincreaseinwholesaleenergyand

capacitycosts.
19
UnderscenarioswheretheCHPEprojectisassumedinservice,ataveragecostsof$85/MWh, thetotal
NPVcostincreaseis1.7percentifaggressiveenergyefficiencyisimplemented,and2.1percentwithno
changetoCESassumedenergyefficiencylevels.IfCHPElowcarbonenergy,orequivalentadditional
renewableresourceenergy,isavailableatlowercosts,thenthisNPVcostincreasewouldbelower.
CO2Emissions
Figure1belowshowsinstateCO2emissionsforNewYorkacrossthescenarios,includinganestimateof
theemissionsassociatedwithimportsinagivenyear.Ineveryscenario,emissionreductionsaredriven
17
Theseimpactsareforwholesaleenergyandcapacity.Acustomerstotalbillimpact(beyondthescopeofthisstudy)overthe
modeledperiodwouldbeontheorderofonehalfoftheseamounts,sinceotherbillcomponents(distribution,transmission,
retaildelivery)makeuptheotherhalfofcustomersbills.AsshowninTable11ofthisreport,whencomparingcoststo
statusquoenergyefficiencylevels,boththeCESassumedEEscenarioandtheaggressiveEEscenario(withoutCHPE)lead
tonetreductionsin15yearNPVcosts.
18
Comparedtoabaselineassociatedwithcurrentenergyefficiencypolicy(whichreflectslowerenergyefficiency
implementationthanCESassumedlevels),thechangeinNPVassociatedwithourHighEEretirementscenarioreflectsa
decreasein15yearNPVwholesalecostsof0.7percent.SeeSection2.
19
ThisisaSynapseestimate,forillustrativepurposes.WehavenospecificknowledgeofpotentiallevelizedcostsofCHPE
energy.TheCHPEprojectisestimatedtocost$2.2billion(http://www.chpexpress.com/).Dependingonassumptionsabout
financingrequirements,thepriceorcostofenergydeliveredovertheline,andtheannualutilizationoftheproject,arange
ofaverageannualcostsperunitofenergydeliveredcanbecomputed.Weuse$85/MWhforillustrationonly,asitiswithina
rangeofpossiblecosts.

byanassumed2.5percentperyearreductioninregionwideRGGIcapsaswellasthe50percentby
2030renewableenergysupplyrequirementofNewYorksCES.Generally,thedifferenceintotal
emissionsisdriveninlargepartbythelevelofemissionsfromimportedenergy.WithinNewYork,there
islessvarianceacrossthescenarios.Section2exploresthisinmoredetail.
Figure1.NewYorkelectricpowersectorCO2emissionsbyscenario,includingestimatedemissionsfromimports
40
NewYorkCO2 emissions,millionmetrictons
35
30
25
20
15
10
0
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
IPECInService,CESEE IPECInService,StatusQuoEE
Retire,HighEE Retire,HighEE,CHPE
Retire,CESEE Retire,CESEE,CHPE

Source:ReEDSmodelingresults,plusSynapseestimateofemissioncharacteristicsofimports.
Reliability
Allscenariosmodeledamixofresourcessufficienttomaintainaplanningreservecapacitymargin
neededtomeetNewYorkStatesenergysystemreliabilityrequirements.Thecombinationofincreasing
levelsofenergyefficiencyinallretirementscenarios(whichlowerpeakloadinadditiontolowering
annualenergyneeds)andincreasinglevelsofrenewableenergycapacity(whichprovideanincremental
resourceadequacybenefit)allowsforassuranceofsufficientcapacitytosupportreliability
20
requirements. Section3containsadditionaldiscussionandexplanationofthereliabilityaspectsof
IPECretirement.
20
Themodelingislimitedtoassessingresourceadequacy,whichtheNYISOidentifiedasthemoreseverereliabilityconcern
(NYISO,2016ReliabilityNeedsAssessment,page45).Assessmentoftransmissionsecurityisbeyondthescopeofthis
review.

2. MODELINGIPECREPLACEMENTENERGYANDCAPACITY
2.1. ModelingMethodologyandScenarios
Methodology
WeusedtheNRELopensourceexpansionmodelingpackageRegionalEnergyDeploymentSystem
(ReEDS)toanchorouranalysisoftheNewYorkelectricpowersystembetween2016and2030.
AppendixAcontainsadditionaldetailonReEDS.
WeemployedReEDSprimarilytoestimatethemix,quantity,andcostofrenewableenergyresources
addedtoNewYorkssystemtomeetthe50by30renewablerequirementsoftheCES.Wealsoused
ReEDStoestimateproductioncostsinNewYorkStateandthelevelofresidualeconomicimported
energyusedtomeetload.Wespecifiedarampinratefornewsolarandwindresourcestomeet50by
30,recognizingtheexistenceofconstraintstosuchdeployment,andweassumedthatoffshorewind
21
installationswilloccurby2030inconcertwithstatedNewYorkpolicy. Weusedtheoutputfrom
ReEDStoestimatethetrajectoryofCO2emissionsinNewYork,andtheemissionsassociatedwithnon
22
Quebecimportedenergy.
WealsodirectlyincorporatedtheeffectthattheenergyefficiencyassumptionsincludedintheNYCES
willhaveonthetrajectoryofenergyefficiencydeployment,andthusnetload,inNewYork.This
estimationservedasacriticalinput,sincebothrenewableresourcebuildout,andremainingcapacity
buildrequirements(tomaintainresourceadequacy)dependonthisassumption.Wedevelopedan
estimateofaggressivebutattainablelevelsofincrementalenergyefficiencyimplementationbeyond
assumedCESlevelstoinformourhighenergyefficiencyretirementscenarios.
BasedontheresultsoftheReEDScapacityexpansion,wetrackedthepresenceofexistingcapacity
resourcesinNewYorkState.OutsideoftheReEDSenvironment,weestimatedtheongoingcostsof
carryingthiscapacity,usinganestimatedweightedstatewidecapacitypriceappliedtoexistingcarried
capacity.
Wedevelopedtotalsystemcostsforwholesaleenergyproductionorpurchasebasedon(i)theoutput
fromReEDS(productioncostspluscapacityexpansioncosts),(ii)existingcapacitycosts,and(iii)energy
efficiencydeploymentcosts.
Wedevelopedsixscenariostoassesstheenergyandcapacitymix,cost,andemissionsassociatedwith
IPECretirement.TwoarereferencescenarioswithIPECinservice,andfourareretirementscenarios
21
NY.gov.2017.GovernorCuomoPresents25thProposalof2017StateoftheState:Nation'sLargestOffshoreWindEnergy
ProjectOffLongIslandCoastandUnprecedentedCommitmenttoDevelopupto2.4GigawattsofOffshoreWindPowerby
2030.Pressrelease,January10.Availableat:https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governorcuomopresents25th
proposal2017statestatenationslargestoffshorewindenergy.
22
WeassumeallenergyimportedfromQuebecisemissionfreeforthepurposesofourmodelingtabulations.

withIPECoutofserviceintwostepsoneunitin2020andoneunitin2021.Thisisconsistentwiththe
recentagreementbetweenNewYorkState,Riverkeeper,andEntergy.Thescenariosaredescribed
below.
Scenarios
Forthisstudy,wemodeledNewYorkinconjunctionwithallsixstatesintheNewEnglandISO,andother
RGGIstatesandadjoiningregionsfortheperiod2010through2030.Weincludedanumberofscenarios
testingtheeffectofdifferentlevelsofenergyefficiencyanddifferentsupplyscenariosinorderto
determinetheimpactoninstatecapacityexpansion,annualenergygeneration,annualemissions,and
totalelectricsectorcosts.
Importantly,energyefficiencyisanexogenousinputtotheReEDSmodel,andcannotbeoptimized
withinthemodelitself.Asaresult,thefourretirementscenariosincludedtwosetsofnearlyidentical
scenarioswhoseonlydifferenceisapredeterminedlevelofenergyefficiencydeployment.Inthisway,
wecouldstilldeterminetheabilityofefficiencyprogramstooffsettheneedforenergypreviously
providedbytheIPECunits.
IPECinservicestatusquo(CurrentEE):ThiscaseusestheNYISOcurrentforecastofload
growthnetofexistingenergyefficiencylevels.Itreflectslowerlevelsofannualenergyefficiency
comparedtoCESassumedlevels,essentiallyleadingtoaslightlydecliningannualenergy
consumptionprofile(exclusiveofbehindthemetersolarPVeffects).Renewableresourcebuild
meetsthe50by30CESrenewablesstandard.Forthisandallscenarios,adecliningcapon
23
carbonemissionsisinplacefortheRGGIregion(2.5percentperyear). ThereisnoIPEC
retirementandnoCHPEplant.
IPECinservicereference(CESAssumedEE):ThisscenariomodelsafutureinwhichIPEC
remainsinserviceandNewYorkcomplieswiththeCES,aswellasRGGIwithdecliningfuture
emissionscaps.Thisservesasourreferencescenario.Energyefficiencylevelsarenotablyhigher
thaninthestatusquocase,consistentwiththeassumedlevelsundertheCES.SeeTable2fora
descriptionofadditionalrelevantassumptions.
IPECretirement(CESAssumedEE):ThisscenariomodelsafutureinwhichIPECretiresintwo
stages,in2020and2021aspertheJanuary9,2017announcedagreement.Allother
assumptionsareconsistentwiththeCESAssumedEEreferencecase.
23
Formodelingpurpose,thisanalysisassumedacontinuationofthecurrent2.5percentperyearcapdecline.However,aRGGI
ProgramReviewthatwillultimatelydeterminewhatthatpost2020capdeclinewillbeisstillunderway,andGovernor
CuomoannouncedinhisJanuary2017StateoftheStatethatNewYorkiscommittedtoacapdeclineequivalentto3
percentperyearafter2020through2030.https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governorcuomopresents14thproposal
2017statestatelowerregionalgreenhousegasinitiative.

IPECretirement(highoraggressivelevelsofEE):ThisscenarioisthesameastheaboveIPEC
retirementscenario,withadditionalincrementalenergyefficiencysignificantlygreaterthanthe
referenceCESAssumedEEpolicycase.
IPECretirement(CESassumedEE)andCHPE:ThisscenariomodelsafutureinwhichCHPEisin
servicein2022andIPECretiresintwostagesin2020and2021.Allotherassumptionsare
consistentwiththeCESAssumedEEreferencecase.
IPECretirement(highoraggressivelevelsofEE)andCHPE:Thisscenariomodelsafuturein
whichCHPEisinservicein2022,highlevelsofenergyefficiencyareassumed,andIPECretiresin
twostagesin2020and2021.AllotherassumptionsareconsistentwiththeCESAssumedEE
referencecase.
2.2. ModelingAssumptions
WeincorporatedNewYorkStateCESparametersintoourprojectionofloadandresourcerequirements.
TheseparametersincludeCESassumedincreasedlevelsofenergyefficiencyandmeetingthe50by30
renewableenergyrequirement.WereflectNewYorkstargetofobtaining2,400MWofoffshorewind
energyby2030inallscenarios,stagedtoreflect600/1200/1800/2400MWattainedby,respectively,
2024/2026/2028/2030.
Summary
Table2belowcontainsthecoreReEDSassumptions.
Table2.ReEDSReferencecasemodelingassumptions
Modelingscope
ReEDSversion ReEDS_v2016
Timeframe 20102030
Geographicscope Nationwide
Changestoload
Electricretailsalesbefore NY 2016 GoldBookextrapolatedto
accountingfornewenergy 2030
efficiencymeasures (177TWhin2030)
Others AEO2016,accountingfor
embeddedEE
Energyefficiencylevels NY CurrentTargets24 (2.2TWh
annually,35.6TWhcumulativeby
2030)
24
SynapsestargetsarebasedontheDepartmentofPublicService'sassumptionsintheCESWhitePaper,whichwere
ultimatelyincorporatedintotheCESorder.FortheWhitePaper,Staffassumescollectivestatewideenergyefficiency
achievementsfortheutilities,NYSERDA,andthenonjurisdictionalentities(NYPA,LIPA,anddirectNYISOcustomers)onthe
basisoftheirshareofstatewideload(NewYorkDepartmentofPublicService2016.StaffWhitePaperonCleanEnergy

Others 25
OnthebooksEERS forallstates
withthem;otherwiseusecurrent
savingslevels
Newunits,otherthaneconomic
Renewablepolicies NY CES50%by2030,includingin
statehydro
Others CurrentRPSforallstateswith
them
Prescribednewwind NY Anyunitslistedasunder
constructioninEIA8602015
Others Anyunitslistedasunder
constructioninEIA8602015,plus
offshorewindinRIandMA
PrescribednewutilityPV NY Anyunitslistedasunder
Prescribednewdistributed NY Updatedpre2016values,future
PV forecastbasedonSunshot
projections
Others ReEDSbasedonSunshot
projections
Prescribednewhydro NY None
Others None
Naturalgasandotherfossil NY CPVandnew GT
Unitretirements
Coal NY Synapseretirementdatabaseall
unitsoutby2022modelyear
Others Synapseretirementdatabase
Nuclear NY Noretirements exceptIPECper
scenariosallupstateplants
assumedtoremainthroughout
studyperiod
Others Nuclearunitsretireafter60years
ofoperation
NaturalGasandotherfossil NY Synapseretirementdatabase
Others Synapseretirementdatabase
Standard.Case15E0302.AppendixB,pages12.)WenotethattheOrderAdoptingaCleanEnergyStandardusesaforecast
ofgrossload(unadjustedforenergyefficiency)thatreaches176.6TWhin2030(CESOrder,p.79),whereastheStaffWhite
Paperusesaforecastofgrossenergyneedof185.6TWhin2030(NewYorkDepartmentofPublicService2016.StaffWhite
PaperonCleanEnergyStandard.Case15E0302.AppendixB,pages12).Bothsources,however,assumecumulativeenergy
efficiencysavingsof35.6TWhasofthatyear.
25
EERSreferstoEnergyEfficiencyResourceStandard.

Unitretrofits
Coal NY None
Others SynapseCAVTMidcase
Costinputs(toReEDS)
Conventionalgeneration NY AEO2016
O&M Others AEO2016
Naturalgasprice NY AEO2016
Others AEO2016
Wind NY WindVisionMedianReduction
Others WindVisionMedianReduction
UtilityPV NY Sunshot62.5%by2020and75%
by2030
Others Sunshot62.5%by2020and75%
by2030
Costinputs(outsideReEDS)
Energyefficiency NY 4.0 centsperkWh(levelized)per
Synapseresearch
DistributedPV NY Sunshot62.5%by2020and75%
by2030
Others Sunshot62.5%by2020and75%
by2030
IncrementalTransmission NY Upstatetransmission
improvementsnotexplicitly
costed
Others N/A
ExistingCapacity PerNYISOcapacitymarket
construct,estimatedvalueas
weightedpriceperkWmo.($8)
CHPE Estimatedat$85/MWh,$2016
levelizedcost
Imports Allimportenergycosts
estimatedbasedonReEDS
marginalenergypricefor
imports;averagevariesfrom
~$30/MWhto~$37/MWh
CarbonMarkets
Caps RGGI RGGI2.5%declinethrough2030
(58.6MTin2030)
Others None
Tradingregions RGGI FreetradingthroughoutRGGI
Others NoCleanPowerPlan
Transmission
NY Upstatetransmission
improvementsassumedinplace,
ReEDSconsidersupstateand
NYCasonezone
Others Nonewtransmissionlines
Forthepurposeofcomparison,theIPECInServicereferencecase(withCESassumedlevelsofenergy
efficiency)representsabusinessasusualbasesetofassumptions.Itpresentsaworldthatcomplies

withonthebooksregionalenvironmentalpoliciesandstaterenewableenergypolicies,withno
additionalassumptionsastothefutureofthestatesnuclearunits,includingIPEC.Table2outlinesthe
inputassumptionsspecifictobothNewYorkandtherestofNewEnglandforallscenarios.Thestatus
quoIPECInServicereferencecaseisthesameastheCESAssumedEEreferencecase,exceptthat
lowerorstatusquolevelsofenergyefficiencyimplementationareassumed,withcorresponding
increasesinloadrelativetotheCESAssumedEEreferencecase.Weusedthiscaseprimarilyasan
alternativebenchmarktothereferencecase,whichassumesincreasestoenergyefficiencythatarenot
yetfullyimplemented.
Importantly,theReferencecase(andallretirementcases)modelsafutureinwhichtheregionwide
RGGIemissioncapsdeclineby2.5percentperyear.Whilethisparticularpolicyisnotcurrentlyonthe
books,thereisageneralexpectationamonginterestedpartiesthattheRGGIprogramisheadingina
directionthatwillresultinatleastthatlevelofstringency.ConsideringGovernorCuomosrecent
commitmenttocapreductionequivalenttoa3percentannualreductionpost2020,thisassumption
26
canreasonablybeinterpretedasconservative.
EnergyEfficiency
Figures2and3summarizethechangestomodeledannualenergyloadreflectingtheeffectofenergy
efficiencyimplementationinNewYorkState.
Figure2.ReferencecaseCESAssumedloadandenergyefficiencyassumptions
26
WhileareviewofRGGIprogramcapdeclinesiscurrentlyinprocess,GovernorCuomorecentlyannouncedhissupportfora
capdeclineequivalentto3percentperyearafter2020through2030.https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governorcuomo
presents14thproposal2017statestatelowerregionalgreenhousegasinitiative.

Figure3.HighEEcaseloadandenergyefficiencyassumptions
Inthereferencecases,NewYorkexperiencesadeclineinoverallloadfrom160TWhin2016to146TWh
in2030.Inthehighenergyefficiencycases,loaddeclinestoaround123TWhin2030.
TheCleanEnergyStandardStaffWhitePaperandCESorderassumeannualincrementalenergy
efficiencysavingsof2,227gigawatthours(GWh)statewidethrough2030.Theseassumptions,however,
haveyettobebackedupbyenforceablerequirementsthatwouldprovidecertaintyinthemannerthat
27
50by30hasprovidedcertaintyforrenewableenergy. WeusedtheCESsenergysavingsassumption
inthereferencecasesandappliedittothegrossloadforecastfromthe2016NYGoldBook,
extrapolatedthrough2030.Thislevelofsavingstranslatesinto1.4to1.5percentannualsavingsasa
percentofsalesthroughouttheperiodofanalysis.Incomparison,actualsavingsinNewYorkwere1.0
28
percentin2015.
ThehighenergyefficiencycasesassumethatNewYorkStatepursuesaggressiveenergyefficiency
policies.UtilitiesinMassachusettsandRhodeIslandhaveachievedevenhigherenergysavingslevels
thanassumedbytheCES,whichhavebeenenabledbythosestatesaggressiveregulatorypoliciesand
27
StaffextrapolatesthePSCauthorizedannualizedNYSERDAgoalandannualutilitytargetstoNYPA,LIPA,anddirectaccess
customerstocomeupwith2,227GWhannualsavings.(NYDPSStaffwhitepaperonCleanEnergyStandard.Case15E0302,
Jan.25,2016,AppendixB,p.2.)
28
BasedonEIA861dataonincrementalannualenergysavingsforallNewYorkStateutilities(1597.8GWh),comparedwith
totalloadin2015(161,572GWh)perthe2016GoldBook.

29
savingstargets. Leadingprogramadministrators,includingNationalGrid,havebeenabletoestablish
30
strongprogramdeliveryinfrastructure,whichinturnenablesthemtorampupenergysavingsrapidly.
Inthehighenergyefficiencycases,efficiencysavingsstartattheCESassumedlevelof2,227GWh.
Startingin2018,savingsbegintorampupatarateof0.4percentperyear,uptoamaximumsavings
levelof3.0percentofretailsalesin2021.Threepercentofretailsalesperyearreflectsrecentelectric
31
efficiencysavingsachievementsofmultipleNewEnglandstates. From2008to2015,theutilitiessuch
asNationalGridinMassachusettsandRhodeIslandwereabletoincreasetheirannualincremental
efficiencysavingsonaveragebyroughly0.4percentofretailsaleseachyear.GivenNewYorkshistory
32
withenergyefficiency,weassumethatittoocanrampupby0.4percentperyear.
ForboththeReferenceandHighEEcase,weassumedalevelizedtotalcostof4centsperlifetimekWh
saved,representingprogramadministratorcostsonly,forthecostofenergyefficiencyresources.This
figurewasbasedonourcalculationofthecostofsavedelectricityfortheEnergyEfficiencyPortfolio
Standard(EEPS)IIprogramsstatewide3.4cents/kWhlevelizedusingdatafromtheNYDPSEEPS
33
ElectricPerformanceSummarywebsite. Weroundedthe3.4centsupto4.0centsandappliedthis
levelthroughoutthestudyperiod.Weusedthehigherleveltorecognizethepotentialforprogramcosts
togoupsomewhatasadministratorsincreasinglytargetmorecomprehensiveretrofits,continueor
increaseeffortstoincludehardertoreachcustomerssuchaslowincomeandsmallbusinesscustomers,
andshiftinvestmenttonewtechnologies.Evenso,thecostofsavedenergyassumptionisintendedto
beconservative,becausetheeconomiesachievedwhenprogramsaredeliveredonalargerscale
34
countertheseupwardpressuresoncosts. FourcentsperkWhis23percenthigherthantheresultsof
29
Suchpolicesincludeestablishingaggressiveenergyefficiencytargets,effectiveshareholderperformanceincentive
mechanisms,adoptingallcosteffectiveEErequirements,andadoptingrecommendationsofactive,inclusiveenergy
efficiencyadvisorycommittees.
30
Internalprogramdeliveryinfrastructureincludesthelaborandresourcesnecessaryforprogramdesign,reporting,
implementation,andevaluation.Externalinfrastructureincludescontractorsandprogramdeliverynetworknecessaryfor
programimplementation.(Baatz,B.,A.Gilleo,andT.Barigye.2016.BigSavers:ExperiencesandRecentHistoryofProgram
AdministratorsAchievingHighLevelsofElectricSavings.AmericanCouncilforanEnergyEfficientEconomy,p.21).
31
In2015,theutilitiesinMassachusettsandRhodeIsland,includingNationalGrid,achievedefficiencysavingsofroughly3.0
percentofretailsales,andhavetargetsforfutureyearsontheorderof2.5to3.0percentofretailsales.
32
Theseratesofincreaseinannualsavingsweresupportedbyarecentnationalanalysisofannualenergysavingsincreases
conductedbyU.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgency(EPA).EPAfoundtheaveragerampratefor26programadministrators
thatachievedamaximumfirstyearsavingslevelof1.5to3percentwas0.38percentofsalesperyearbasedontheEnergy
InformationAdministrationsFormEIA861onenergyefficiencyprogramelectricitysavings.Incontrast,jurisdictionswith
limitedprogramactivityhavebeenabletoexpandprogramsavingsbyabout0.2percentofsalesperyear.(EPA.2015.
CleanPowerPlanFinalRule:DemandSideEnergyEfficiencyTechnicalSupportDocument.
https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/201511/documents/tsdcppdemandsideee.pdf.)
33
Forthecalculationofthehistoricalcostofsavedenergy,weuseadiscountrateof5percentandassumeanaverage
measurelifeof12years.3.4centsiscalculatedusingexpenditures,includinganassumed5percentadderforevaluation
costs,andnetfirstyearelectricitysavingsfortheEEPSIIprogramsfrominceptionthroughtheendof2014,forNYSERDA
andtheinvestorownedutilities.Nodecayinsavingswasassumed.
34
Inarecentnationalstudy,LBNLconsideredthecostofsavedenergy(COSE)forallprogramadministratorsinitsdataset,
versusPAswithlarger,morematureportfolios.Theaveragecostofsavedenergyforallprogramscombinedstartsat

a2014LBNLstudy,whichfoundalevelizedcostofsavedenergyofabout3.2to3.3cents/kWh(2012$)
forNewYorkStatebasedonsavingsdatafrom2009to2011(adjustedtobegross)anda6percentreal
35
discountrate. Furthermore,wenotethattheassumptionthatthecostofsavedenergybeginsat4.0
centsperkWhandstaysatthatlevelthroughoutthestudyperiodisconservative.
ThecostsofsavedenergyforMassachusettsandRhodeIslandarepresentedhereforcomparison
purposesbecause,asmentionedabove,theyareachievingsavingsasapercentofsalesintherangeof
theHighEElevelrecommendedforNewYork.InMassachusetts,thelevelizedcostofsavedenergyfor
the2013through2015programshasbeenbetween4.0and4.6centsperlifetimekWhassuminga5
percentdiscountrate,whileachievingsavingsofbetween2.3and3.0percentofsales.RhodeIslandhas
36
seenroughlysimilarcostandsavingslevelsinrecentyears. Costsinbothstateshavenotdisplayedan
upwardtrend,evenasthesestatesclimbedtohighsavingslevelsduringthefirsthalfofthedecade.
2.3. KeyModelingResults
Energy
IPECsannualenergyproductionofroughly16TWhwillbedisplacedbyacombinationofcleanenergy
resourcessuchasincreasedlevelsofenergyefficiencyandrenewableenergysourcedfromonshore
37
wind,solarphotovoltaics(PV),andeventuallyoffshorewindproduction. Canadianhydroresources
mightalsomakeupaportionpotentiallyaverysubstantialportionofthereplacementenergyand
capacityrequiredafterIPECsclosure,iftheChamplainHudsonPowerExpressprojectisinitiatedand
completed.WerantwomodelingscenariostodevelopanannualenergybalanceincludingtheCHPE.
$0.044/kWhin2009,decreasesto0.023/kWhin2011,andreboundsalittleto$0.028/kWhin2013).LBNLfoundadifferent
trendamongadministratorswithlarger,morematureportfolios,reflectedbythesavingsweightedCOSE.Thissavings
weightedmetricincreasedslightlyfrom$0.020/kWhin2009to$0.023/kWhin2013.Thedifferencebetweenthenon
weightedandthesavingsweightedCOSEssuggeststhattheCOSEfortheportfolioswithlowersavingslevelshaspulledup
theaverageforthedatasetasawhole.SeealsoSynapsesanalysisofaveragecostsbasedonEIAdata,pointingtolower
costsforlargerprograms.(Ackerman,F.,P.Knight,B.Biewald.2016.EstimatingtheCostofSavedEnergy:TheEIA861
Database.SynapseEnergyEconomics.http://www.synapseenergy.com/sites/default/files/COSEEIA861Database66
017.pdf.)
35
Billingsley,Megan,IanHoffman,ElizabethStuart,StevenSchiller,CharlesGoldman,andKristinaLaCommar.2014.The
ProgramAdministratorCostofSavedEnergyforUtilityCustomerFundedEnergyEfficiencyPrograms.LBNL.p.37.
36
Malone,E.andJ.Kallay.2016.RhodeIslandandMassachusettsEclipseEfficiencyTargets.SynapseEnergyEconomics.
http://www.synapseenergy.com/aboutus/blog/rhodeislandandmassachusettseclipseefficiencytargets.
37
Additionalrenewableportfoliostandard(RPS)eligibleresources,suchasincreasedlevelsofbiomass,mayalsomakeupa
smallportionofIPECreplacementenergy.

DependingontheexacttimingandscaleofthebuildoutofrenewablewindandsolarPVresources,
38
increasesinenergyefficiencyinvestment, andthepotentialconstructionoftheCHPE,temporary
increasesintheuseofimportedenergyand/ornaturalgasfiredgenerationfromNewYorksourcesmay
beseenintheperiodimmediatelyafterIPECsretirement.However,absoluteTWhlevelsofthese
resourcesarelikelytoberoughlyequaltoorlowerthanthatseenin2016.Thisisduetomodeled
increasesinenergyefficiencyandassociatedreductionsinnetenergyrequirementsinNewYork
between2016and2022(thefirstyearoffullIPECretirement),andcontinuedrenewableenergy
installationsbetweennowand2022.
WemodeledtheannualenergybalanceforNewYorkforeachofthesixdefinedscenariosdescribed
aboveinSection2.1.Tables3and4belowshowtheaggregategenerationandimportlevelsforthetwo
IPECInServicecases,oneassumingastatusquolevelofenergyefficiencyimplementation,andone
assumingtheCESassumedtrajectoryisattainedforenergyefficiencyresources.
Table3.StatusQuoEEScenarioIPECinserviceenergybalancesbyresourcetype,20162030
2016 2030
TWh (millions of MWH) by Resource 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 share share
Status Quo - IPEC In-Service, No Change to EE Policy

Nuclear 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 26% 27%
In-State Fossil Resources (Existing + New) 72 70 65 57 51 46 40 35 44% 22%
All Renewables (Hydro, QB imports, Wind, Solar, Bio) 43 45 46 52 59 65 72 78 27% 50%
All Other Imports (PJM/NE/Ontario) 4 5 8 8 7 5 4 2 2% 1%
Total Load - TWh 162 162 162 160 160 159 158 158 100% 100%
Annual Growth Rate of Load (CAGR over 2 years) 0.1% -0.2% -0.4% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2%

Source:SynapseReEDSmodelingresults,aggregatedbyresourcetypegroup.
Table4.CESAssumedEEReferenceScenarioIPECinserviceenergybalancesbyresourcetype,20162030
2016 2030
Reference - IPEC In-Service, CES-Assumed EE Policy Implementation

Nuclear 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 26% 29%
All Other Imports (PJM/NE/Ontario) 4 4 6 6 4 1 1 -2 2% -2%
Total Load - TWh 161 160 158 155 153 151 148 146 100% 100%
Annual Growth Rate of Load (CAGR over 2 years) -0.4% -0.7% -0.9% -0.7% -0.7% -0.8% -0.8%

Source:SynapseReEDSmodelingresults,aggregatedbyresourcetypegroup.
38
CleanEnergyStandardimplementationpolicieswillinfluencetherateofsuchinvestmentinenergyefficiencyandsolarand
windresources.

Asseenabove,theshareofNewYorkannualenergyloadservedbydifferentresourcetypesvaries
underthereferencecaseandstatusquocase,asincreasinglevelsofenergyefficiencyimplementation
leadtoareductionintheneedforadditionalimportedenergyfromtheadjacentregions.Inbothcases,
thesteadilyincreasingbuildoutofrenewableresourcesarisingfromthepresenceofthe50by30
renewablesrequirementleadstoincreasinglevelsofenergysharebyrenewableresources.
Table5belowshowsresultsofourmodelingforthefourretirementscenariosanalyzed,usingthesame
IPECretirementpath(oneunitin2020andoneunitin2021).Butinthiscaseweusedtwodifferent
levelsofenergyefficiencyimplementation,bothwithandwithoutthepresenceoftheCHPEresource
comingintoservicein2022thefirstfullyearofIPECabsence.
Theappendixincludestableswiththefullbreakoutofenergygenerationbyindividualresourcetype
(nuclear,coal,existinggas,newgas,hydro,wind,solar,biomass,oil/gassteam,andimports).

Table5.IPECretirementscenarios,energybalancesbyresourcetype,20162030
2016 2030
Retirement Case, CES-Assumed EE Policy Implementation

Nuclear 43 43 37 26 26 26 26 26 26% 18%
Total Load - TWh 161 160 158 155 153 151 148 146 100% 100%
Retirement Case, High EE Policy Implementation
Nuclear 43 43 37 26 26 26 26 26 26% 21%
Total Load - TWh 161 159 154 146 140 134 128 123 100% 100%
Retirement Case, CES-Assumed EE Policy Implementation + CHPE
Nuclear 43 43 37 26 26 26 26 26 26% 18%
Total Load - TWh 161 160 158 155 153 151 148 146 100% 100%
Retirement Case, High EE Policy Implementation + CHPE
Nuclear 43 43 37 26 26 26 26 26 26% 21%
All Other Imports (PJM/NE/Ontario) 4 4 7 8 3 -1 -1 -5 2% -4%
Total Load - TWh 161 159 154 146 140 134 128 123 100% 100%

Source:SynapseEnergyEconomics.ReEDSmodelingresults,aggregatedbyresourcetypegroup.
Thelevelofenergyfromrenewableresourcesvariesacrossthescenarios,reflectingdifferentrenewable
buildoutpatternstiedtoenergyloadlevels,andthepresenceorabsenceoftheCHPEresource.We
includedCHPEasarenewableresourceinthistabulation,anditsinclusionleadstoallrenewables
39
sharesgreaterthan50%by2030. Lowertotalloadarisingfromenergyefficiencyresourcesinturn
leadstolowerrenewablebuildoutrequirementstomeetthe50by30mandate.Asseeninthetable,
thelowestleveloftotalrenewableenergyisseeninthescenariowiththehighestlevelofenergy
efficiencyandtheabsenceoftheCHPEresources.Thehighestlevelofrenewableenergyproductionis
39
TheReEDSmodelingdoesnotcounttheCHPEresourceascontributingtoNewYorksrenewableresourcerequirement.

seenintheCHPEscenariowithrelativelylowerlevelsofenergyefficiencyimplementation(i.e.,theCES
assumedlevelofenergyefficiency).Figure4belowshowsthepatternofrenewableresourceenergy
productionbyretirementscenario,andforthetwononretirementscenarios,for2016through2030.
Figure4.Renewableresourceenergybyscenario,20162030
90
80
AnnualTWh(millionofMWh)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
IPECInServStatusQuoEE IPECInServReferenceCESAssumedEE
RetirementCESEE RetirementHighEE
RetirementCESEE+CHPE RetirementHighEE+CHPE

Source:SynapseEnergyEconomics.ReEDSmodelingresults.
Theretirementscenarioresultsshowsignificantlydeclininguseofinstatefossilresourcesinallcases,
40
reflectingthepresenceofincreasedrenewableresources,retirementofcoalunits, reducedlevelsof
energyfromoldergasandoilunits(bothsteamandcombinedcycleunits),andtheeffectofthe
decliningRGGIregionalcapontotalCO2emissions.Oftheremaininglevelsofenergyproducedbyin
statefossilresources,mostofitisgeneratedbynaturalgascombinedcycleunits.
ThelevelofimportedenergyfromnonQuebecsourcesalsovariesacrossthescenarios.Essentially,in
statefossilandnonQuebecimportsserveasthemarginalenergysourcesforallofthescenarios.With
higherlevelsofenergyefficiencydeployment,thereislessofaneedforthismarginalenergy.The
lowestlevelofimportedenergyisseeninthescenariowiththehighestlevelofenergyefficiencyand
withtheCHPEresource;inthatscenario,NewYorkisactuallyanetexporterofenergyby2026(1TWh
40
Synapseassumption.OurunderstandingisthatGovernorCuomohasalsocommittedtocoalretirementbythisdate.

ofnetexportsin2026,risingto5TWhofnetexportby2030).Figure5showsthepatternofdeclining
NewYorkfossilplusimportedenergybetween2016and2030,foreachscenario.
Figure5.Fossil+nonQuebecimportenergybyscenario,20162030
90.0
80.0
70.0
AnnualTWh(millionsofMWh)
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Figures6and7belowsummarizetheenergybalancefindingsfromouranalysisforourreference(CES
AssumedEE)retirementscenario.Theyindicatethesourceandtypeofenergyresourcefrom2022
2030(intwoyearsteps)relativetoenergyprovisionin2016,reflectingtheCESassumedincreasesin
41
energyefficiencybetweennowand2030aswellastheCES50by30renewableenergyrequirement.
ThefiguresshowIPECsreductionof16.3TWhismadeupbyincreasedenergyefficiencyandincreased
41
TheCESassumes(butnotincludespecificbindingrequirementsfor)continuingincreasesinthelevelofachievedenergy
efficiencyimprovementinNewYork,rampinguptoobtainingroughly1.5%/yearofretailenergysalesquantitiesthrough
energyefficiencyimplementationby2030.Eachyear,theincrementallyobtainedenergyefficiencycontinuestoprovide
energysavingsforsubsequentyears.ExistingCanadianhydroimportsareincludedaspartofRPSrequirements,butnew
Canadianimportsarenot(seeCESorderAppendixAoneligibilityofresourcesforrenewableaccounting).

renewableenergyprovision,andcontinuingreduction(after2022)ofthecombinationofinstatefossil
andimportedenergy.
Figure6.ReferenceCase(CESAssumedEE)IPECRetirementReplacementenergysourcein20222030
(AbsoluteTWh)changefrom2016output
30.0 29.1
24.0
Change in TWh from 2016 (millions of MWh)
20.0 18.7
14.9
13.2 12.7
10.4
10.0 7.5 8.1
6.1
2.8
0.0
-5.0
-10.0
-12.8
-20.0 -16.3 -16.3 -16.3 -16.3 -16.3
-20.3
-30.0 -27.7
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
IPEC EE Renewables NY Fossil + Non-Quebec Imports

Figure7.ReferenceCase(CESAssumedEE)IPECRetirementReplacementenergysourcein20222030
percentageofIPECs2016output
200% 178%
147%
150%
Percentage change in output from 2016
115%
100% 91%
81% 78%
64%
46% 50%
50% 37%
17%
0%
-50% -31%
-100% -78%
-100% -100% -100% -100% -100%
-150% -125%
-170%
-200%
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
IPEC EE Renewables NY Fossil + Non-Quebec Imports

SourcesforFigures6and7:SynapsetabulationfromReEDSmodelingoutputs.

Figures8and9belowshowthesameinformationasseeninFigures6and7,butforthehighenergy
efficiencyretirementscenario.
Figure8.IPECRetirementCase(HighEnergyEfficiency)Replacementenergysourcein20222030(Absolute
TWh)changefrom2016output
40.0 38.1
32.7
Change in Annual TWh from 2016 (millions of MWh)
30.0 27.0
20.8
20.0 18.1
14.5 14.9
11.8
8.5
10.0
4.6
0.0
-2.9
-10.0
-13.0
-20.0 -16.3 -16.3 -16.3 -16.3 -16.3
-22.5
-30.0
-31.3
-40.0
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030-39.9
IPEC EE Renewables NY Fossil + Imports

Figure9.IPECRetirementCase(HighEnergyEfficiency)Replacementenergysourcein20222030percentage
ofIPECs2016output
300%
234%
201%
200% 165%
128%
111%
89% 91%
100% 72%
52%
28%
0%
-17%
-100% -80%
-100% -100% -100% -100% -100%
-138%
-200%
-192%
-244%
-300%
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


Figures10and11belowshowthesameinformationasseenintheearliergraphs(Figures6through9),
butfortheCESassumedretirementscenarioincludingthepresenceoftheCHPEproject.
Figure10.IPECRetirement(CESAssumedEE+CHPE)Replacementenergysourcein20222030(Absolute
TWh)changefrom2016output
40.0 36.1
31.0
Change in TWh from 2016 (millions of
30.0 25.7
20.2
20.0 14.5 14.9
12.7
10.4
8.1
10.0 6.1
MWh)
0.0
-10.0 -4.2
-12.0
-20.0 -16.3 -16.3 -16.3 -16.3 -16.3
-19.8
-30.0 -27.3
-40.0 -34.7
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Figure11.IPECRetirement(CESAssumedEE+CHPE)Replacementenergysourcein20222030percentageof
IPECs2016output
250% 221%
190%
200%
157%
150% 124%
89% 91%
100% 78%
64%
50%
50% 37%
0%
-50% -26%
-100% -74%
-100% -100% -100% -100% -100%
-150% -121%
-200% -168%
-213%
-250%
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


Figures6and7illustratethatasenergyefficiencyresourcesrampupovertime,theyoffsetagreater
portionofIPECenergy,reaching91percentofthe2016outputofIPECby2030.Critically,theyalso
showthatthecombinedeffectofincreasingefficiencyofelectricuseandinstallationofrenewable
energysourcestomeettheCES50by30renewablerequirementleadstodeclininglevelsofinstate
fossilfuelandnonQuebecbasedimportedenergyrelativeto2016levels.Theabsolutequantitiesof
fossilfueluseandnonQuebecbasedimportedenergyalsodeclinesafter2022,asisshowninTable5of
thereport.Figures8through11showthesameeffect,butfortheretirementscenariowithaggressive
levelsofenergyefficiency(Figures8and9)andthescenariowithCESassumedlevelsofEE,butwith
inclusionoftheCHPEproject(Figures10and11).
Table6belowprovidessummaryinformationonthekeyoutputparametersassociatedwithour
referencecase(CESAssumedEE)retirementscenario,andthethreeothers:aggressiveenergy
efficiency,inclusionoftheCHPEunderreferencecaseenergyefficiencyprovision,andafinalscenario
withbothaggressiveenergyefficiencyandinclusionofCHPE.AsshowninTable6,higherlevelsof
energyefficiencyenablelowerlevelsofrequiredrenewableenergyinfrastructuretomeetthe50by30
renewablesCESrequirement.Asalsoshown,thepresenceofhigherlevelsofenergyefficiencyand/or
theCHPEprojectleadstolowerlevelsofelectricityfromeitherinstatefossilresources(coal,gasand
oil)orimportednonQuebecenergy(PJM,Ontario,andNewEngland)bythelaterpartofthemodeling
period.Theselatterresourcesgenerallycompetewithinstatefossilenergytobethemarginalfuelfor
NewYork.ThisisthecaseforallyearsforallscenariosexceptforthefirstfullyearofIPECretirement,
2022,inthereferencescenario,inwhichasmallincreaseinimports(relativeto2016)isreflectedinthe
table(2.8TWh).
Table6.IPECretirementreplacementenergybysourceandbyscenariofor2022and2030
TWhfromreplacementresource 2022 2030
relativeto2016
Scenario EE Renewables NY EE Renewables NY
Including Fossil/ Including Fossil/
CHPE Imports CHPE Imports
ReferenceScenario 6.1 7.5 2.8 14.9 29.1 (27.7)

HighEEScenario 14.5 4.6 (2.9) 38.1 18.1 (39.9)
ReferenceScenario+CHPE 6.1 14.5 (4.2) 14.9 36.1 (34.7)
HighEEScenario+CHPE 14.5 11.6 (9.9) 38.1 24.5 (46.3)
Note:IPECoutputismodeledas16.3TWhperyear.NewYorkStatenetenergydemandin2016isestimatedat161TWh.In
2015,totalNewYorkfossilenergyplusnonQuebecimportsequaledroughly76TWh.
RetirementScenariosComparedtoIPECInServiceCases
Tables7and8illustratetheenergybalanceimpactofIPECsretirementcomparedtoscenarioswhere
thenuclearplantremainsinserviceinfutureyears.Table7comparesretirementscenariosagainsta
scenarioinwhichIPECremainsinserviceandCESassumedenergyefficiencylevelsareattained.Table8

comparesretirementscenariosagainstacaseinwhichIPECremainsinserviceandenergyefficiency
continuesatthestatusquo.
Table7.Replacementenergybalancecomparedtoreference(CESAssumedEE)IPECInServicescenario
TWhChangesfromIPECInService 2022 2030

CaseCESEE
Scenario EE Renewables NYNew EE Renewables NYNew
Including + Including +
CHPE Existing CHPE Existing
Fossil/ Fossil/
Imports Imports
HighEERetirementScenario 8.5 (2.8) 10.7 23.2 (11.1) 4.1
HighEE+CHPERetirementScenario 8.5 4.2 3.7 23.2 (4.6) (2.3)

Reference(CESassumedEE)+CHPE
0.0 7.0 9.3 0.0 7.0 9.3
RetirementScenario
Reference(CESassumedEE)
0.0 0.0 16.3 0.0 0.0 16.3
RetirementScenario
Table8.ReplacementenergybalancecomparedtoStatusQuo(lowerEE)IPECInServicescenario
TWhChangesfromIPECInServiceCase 2022 2030

StatusQuoEE
Scenario EE Renewables NYNew EE Renewables NY New+
Including + Including Existing
CHPE Existing CHPE Fossil/
Fossil/ Imports
Imports
HighEERetirementScenario 13.9 (4.6) 7.1 35.0 (16.9) (1.7)
HighEE+CHPERetirementScenario 13.9 2.4 0.1 35.0 (10.5) (8.2)

Reference(CESAssumedEE)+CHPE
5.4 5.2 5.7 11.8 1.1 3.4
RetirementScenario
Reference(CESAssumedEE)Retirement
5.4 (1.8) 12.7 11.8 (5.9) 10.4
Scenario
SourcesforTables7and8:SynapsetabulationofReEDSmodelingoutput.
ThefirstrowofTable7showstheconsiderableimpactofincrementalenergyefficiencygainsifNew
YorkweretomovefromCESassumedlevelstomoreaggressivelevelsofenergyefficiencynamely,
lowerlevelsoffossilorimportedresourcesin2030(thebreakevenpointis2027)evenafteraccounting
forIPECsretirementandwithoutanyadditionalrenewableenergyfromCHPE.Thesecondrowshows
thatthepresenceofCHPEfurtherreducesanyneedforincrementalfossilorimportedenergy(the
breakevenpointis2023).ThelasttworowsofTable7showthatwhencomparingIPECInService(with
CESAssumedEElevels)toIPECretirementscenarioswiththesamelevelofenergyefficiency(anda
resultingCESbuildoutthatistiedtothesamelevelofload),theonlychangeseenisintheremaining

sourcesofenergyfossilandimportedenergy.ThepresenceofCHPEreduces,butdoesnoteliminate,
theneedforadditionalfossilorimportedenergy.
Table8showsthatiftheframeworkforcomparisonistodaystrajectoryofCESassumedenergy
efficiencygains,aggressiveenergyefficiencylevelscoupledwiththeCHPEprojectwillleadtonet
declinesinfossilplusimportedenergyby2022evenwiththeIPECstationretirement(secondrow).
Underlessaggressiveenergyefficiencyimplementationi.e.,CESassumedenergyefficiencylevels(last
tworows)fossilgenerationuseby2030willstillbehigherthanitotherwisewouldbewithIPECin
service,thoughCHPEoutputmitigatesagainstsuchincreases.
Capacity
TheReEDSmodelingsystembroadlyaccountsforcapacityresourcesrequiredtomaintainreliabilityin
NewYork.Themodelappliesaplanningreserverequirementtoreflectresourceadequacyneedsthat
42
aregreaterthanpeakload; thoseloadsarelowerbecauseofthepeakreducingeffectsofenergy
efficiencyresources.RenewableresourcecapacitybuildoutwithintheReEDSmodeloccursin
43
proportiontotheannualenergyrequirementsandthe50by30CESfactorsforeachyearoutto2030.
Afteraccountingfortheeffectofenergyefficiencyandincludingthecapacitycontributionofnewlybuilt
renewableresources,themodelgaugeswhetherornotnewcapacityadditionseithergasfired
(combustionturbineorcombinedcycle)orstoragearerequired.Ifnewadditionsarefoundtobe
necessary,themodeltheneconomicallybuildsthoseresourcesintherequiredyears.
Allscenariosmodeledincludedtheplannedoperationofnewgasresourcesin2018,mainlytheCPV
44 45
plant; accountedforthecapacityvalueofexistingCanadian(Quebec)imports; assumedthe
retirementofremainingcoalfiredresourcesinNewYorkbytheendof2020;andincludedanestimate
ofretirementofasubstantialamountofoldergasandoilfiredresourcesovertheplanningperiod.
Table9showstheaggregategenerationinstalledcapacitylevelsforthetwoIPECInServicecases.One
assumesastatusquolevelofenergyefficiencyimplementation,andoneassumestheCESassumed
trajectoryisattainedforenergyefficiencyresources.Asseenbelow,theshareofNewYorkinstalled
capacityservedbydifferentresourcetypesvariesunderthetwodifferencereferencecases.Increasing
levelsofenergyefficiencyimplementationleadtoadifferentpatternofrenewablecapacitybuildout
andresultinadifferentpatternofnewgasorstoragebuildoutneedsinthelatteryearsoftheanalysis.
42
TheactualplanningreservemargininNewYorkisontheorderof118%ofpeakload.
43
Inouranalysiswefixedthelevelofoffshorewindbuildinthemodel;andReEDSincorporatedafixedlevelofdistributed
generationbuildout(solarPV).Theremainingwindandsolarbuildoutsproceededtorampupfrom2016to2030tomeet
the50%target.OutsideofReEDS,Synapselimitedthenearyearbuildoutofwind(through2020)toreflectplanned
increasesintransmissionbetweenupstateanddownstatebynoearlierthanmodelyear2022.
44
CPVValleyis650MW.ModelingwascompletedpriortodeterminingthestatusoftheCricketValleyplannedgasfired
facility.WeestimatethatthebroadconclusionsinthisreportwouldbeunchangediftheCricketValleyplantwereincluded;
itwouldcontributemoreenergytotheNYsystemandnonQuebecimportenergywouldbelower.
45
At1,100MW.

Table9.StatusQuoEEandCESAssumedEEReferencescenarioIPECInServicecapacitybalancesbyresourcetype,20162030
MW Installed Capacity by Resource Type 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Status Quo - IPEC In-Service, No Change to EE Policy
Nuclear 5,383 5,383 5,383 5,383 5,383 5,383 5,383 5,383
In-State Fossil Resources (Existing Coal, Gas, Oil) 23,138 21,506 19,166 18,455 17,123 16,591 14,723 12,228
In-State Fossil Resources - New Gas 7 747 822 822 822 1,750 2,144 4,628
All Renewables (Hydro, Quebec imports, Wind, Solar, Biomass) 10,414 11,269 12,367 14,998 16,875 19,211 23,407 26,346
Installed Capacity, MW 38,942 38,905 37,738 39,658 40,203 42,934 45,657 48,586
Reference - IPEC In-Service, CES-Assumed EE Policy Implementation

Nuclear 5,383 5,383 5,383 5,383 5,383 5,383 5,383 5,383

Source:ReEDSmodelingresults,aggregatedbyresourcetype.
Notably,eveninthestatusquoscenariowithalowerlevelofenergyefficiencyimplementation,thereisminimalneedforadditionalcapacity
46
untilthelateryearsofanalysis.
46
ReEDSbuildstomaintainresourceadequacy,nottoaddresslocalneeds.ReEDSretiresolderresources,butifthoseresourceswereneededtomeetlocalneeds,the
renewablebuildouteffectswouldnotbeanydifferentfromwhatisseenhere,andtheenergyeffectswouldlikelynotvarymateriallysincetheolderresourcescontribute
lesseramountstoenergyrequirementsinthemiddleandlateryearsoftheanalysis.

Table10.IPECretirementscenarios,installedcapacitybyresourcetype,20162030
MW Installed Capacity by Resource Type 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Retirement Case, CES-Assumed EE Policy Implementation
Nuclear 5,383 5,383 4,618 3,319 3,319 3,319 3,319 3,319
Retirement Case, High EE Policy Implementation
Nuclear 5,383 5,383 4,618 3,319 3,319 3,319 3,319 3,319
In-State Fossil Resources - New Gas 7 747 747 747 747 747 747 2,304
Retirement Case, CES-Assumed EE Policy Implementation + CHPE
Nuclear 5,383 5,383 4,618 3,319 3,319 3,319 3,319 3,319
Retirement Case, High EE Policy Implementation + CHPE
Nuclear 5,383 5,383 4,618 3,319 3,319 3,319 3,319 3,319
In-State Fossil Resources - New Gas 7 747 747 747 747 747 756 2,386


Table10aboveshowsresultsofourmodelingofthefourretirementscenariosanalyzed,usingthesame
IPECretirementpath(oneunitin2020andoneunitin2021).Theydifferinthelevelsofenergy
efficiencyimplementation,andalsoinregardtothepresenceoftheCHPEresourcecomingintoservice
in2022,thefirstfullyearofIPECabsence.
Thetableillustratesavaryinglevelofrenewablecapacitybuildout,andlateryearnewgasbuildouts.
ThisisfurtherillustratedbyFigures12and13below.
Forfurtherinformation,theappendixincludestableswiththefullbreakoutofinstalledcapacityby
individualresourcetype(nuclear,coal,existinggas,newgas,hydro,wind,solar,biomass,oil/gassteam,
andimports).
Figure12.Renewableinstalledcapacityexistingandbuildoutbyscenario
30,000
RenewableInstalledCapacity,MW
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Source:SynapseEnergyEconomics,ReEDSmodeling.

Figure13.Newgasbuildoutsbyscenario
5,000
4,500
NewGasInstalledCapacity,MW
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Note:HighEEscenariosreflectcombinedcyclegasbuildoutin2030only,beyondcommittedgasunits.Otherscenariosreflecta
combinationofcombinedcycleandgasCTunits.NewgasbuildoutincludesCPV.Source:SynapseEnergyEconomics.ReEDS
modelingresults.
Costs
47
NewYorkStatewholesalemarketcostsareroughly$910billionannually. Thesecostsconsistbroadly
ofenergy,capacityandancillaryservice,andupliftcosts,butaredominatedbyenergyandcapacity
costs.Totalelectricsectorcoststodeliverelectricitytoenduseconsumersincludetransmissionand
distributionandrelatedretaildeliverycharges.Together,thesecostsamountedtototalNewYork
48
electricsectorcostsofmorethan$20billionin2015. IndianPointisanenergyandcapacityproviderin
thewholesalemarketplace.ThecostimpactoftheretirementofIPECultimatelyrealizedbyconsumers
willdependlargelyonthecostsassociatedwithhowelectricitymarketsrespondtothereplacement
energyandcapacitythatwillbenecessitatedbyIPECsretirementin2020and2021.Thismarket
responsewillincludegrowthinrenewableenergysources,whicharebeingbroughtonlineinresponse
toNewYorksCESrenewableresourcerequirements;decliningnetloadovertimeduetogrowthin
energyefficiencyanddistributedsolarresources;theeffectofsurpluscapacitythatnowexistsonthe
NewYorksystem;andplannedtransmissionimprovementsthatwillallowgreatertransfersofenergy
andcapacitybetweenupstateanddownstateNewYork.
47
PotomacEconomics,2015StateoftheMarketReport,Page3.Availableathttps://www.potomaceconomics.com/wp
content/uploads/2017/02/NYISO2015SOMReport.pdf.
48
EIAhttp://www.eia.gov/electricity/state/NewYork/.

Ineveryscenariomodeled,thefuturetotalsystemcoststooperateNYISOselectricsystemincrease
from2016levels.AsseeninFigure14,themagnitudeandtimingofthoseincreasesinsystemcostsvary
byscenario,withthetwohighenergyefficiencyscenariosincurringhighersystemcostsinearlyyears
beforelevelingoutandfinishingthestudyperiodwellbelowthebaselineefficiencyscenarios.A
comparisonofthe15yearNPVsofeachscenarioispresentedinTable11.
Figure14.TotalsystemcostsinNewYorkbyscenario
12,000
10,000
8,000
2016$millions
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
IPECInServRefCESAssumedEE IPECInServRefStatusQuoEE
RetireCESAssumedEE RetireCESAssumedEE+CHPE
RetireHighEE RetireHighEE+CHPE

Source:SynapseEnergyEconomics.ReEDSmodelingresultsplusSynapseestimatesofnonReEDScosts.

Table11.NetPresentValueoftotalNewYorksystemcostsbyscenario,2016$millions
ChangeinNPV
NPV,$millions, Vs. Vs.
20162030 Ref.CESEE StatusQuo
StatusQuoEEIPECInService 103,585
ReferenceCESAssumedEEIPECInService 102,724
RetireRefCESAssumedEE 103,393 0.7 0.2%
RetireRefCESAssumedEE+CHPE 104,925 2.1 1.3%
RetireHighEE 102,892 0.2 0.7%
RetireHighEE+CHPE 104,496 1.7 0.9%
Note:NPVata5percentrealdiscountrate.CHPEcostsassumedtoaverage$85/MWh(levelizedcost,$2016).
EmissionscoststhatcouldbeattributedtononQuebecimportedenergyarenotincluded.Post2030effectsnot
included.
ThetableaboveshowsthattheNPVofcostsforIPECretirementscenariosarelowestintheHighEE
scenario.Inabsoluteterms,theNPVis0.2percentmorecostlythanthereferenceCESAssumedEE
scenario,andthatsameretirementscenarioisactuallylesscostlythanascenariothatassumesthe
statusquoforenergyefficiencyresourceimplementationandIPECinservice.Thetablealsoshowsthe
costimpactsoftheotherretirementscenarios.
Totalsystemcostsbrokenoutbycomponentareincludedintheappendixforallscenarios.Below,we
showthisbreakoutforthereferencecaseIPECInServicescenario(CESAssumedEElevels),andthe
scenariothatassumesahighlevelofenergyefficiencyandthepresenceoftheCHPEproject.
Table12.IPECInServiceReference(CESAssumedEE)scenario,annualcosts($millions)
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Streamofcapitalcosts 150 278 327 635 1,318 2,007 2,649 3,417
Streamoffuelcosts 2,495 2,407 2,422 2,250 2,140 2,092 1,780 1,631
StreamofFOMcosts 1,801 1,761 1,698 1,680 1,783 1,916 1,955 1,999
Existingcapacitycosts 3,514 3,358 3,133 3,065 2,937 2,886 2,706 2,467
Canadianhydro 243 248 270 280 291 298 289 275
Imports 123 145 220 239 180 48 38 61
Energyefficiency 829 829 829 829 829 829 829 829
Totalcosts 9,156 9,025 8,900 8,979 9,478 10,076 10,248 10,557

Table13.HighEE+CHPEretirementcase,annualcosts($millions)
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Streamofcapitalcosts 151 278 328 419 957 1,407 1,883 2,486
Streamoffuelcosts 2,486 2,387 2,400 2,157 2,069 1,995 1,625 1,477
StreamofFOMcosts 1,800 1,760 1,617 1,409 1,472 1,559 1,578 1,606
Existingcapacitycosts 3,514 3,358 3,059 2,866 2,739 2,688 2,508 2,269

Canadianhydro 243 248 270 875 886 893 884 870
Imports 127 140 258 312 132 43 23 162
Energyefficiency 829 1,074 1,518 1,674 1,601 1,531 1,464 1,402
Total 9,151 9,245 9,450 9,712 9,856 10,030 9,919 9,946
Asshownintheabovetables,thecostsforenergyefficiencyandCanadianhydro(whichincludesCHPE)
arehigherintheretirementscenariowithhigherenergyefficiencyandCHPE.ComparedtotheIn
Servicecase,fuelandfixedO&Mcostsdeclineovertime.Thestreamofcapitalcostsdeclinesinthe
retirementcasebecauselowerload(throughenergyefficiencyeffects)leadstoalowerrequirementin
CESresourcebuildout.ThecostofnonQuebecimportsrisesintheimmediateyearofandjustafterIPEC
retirement(relativetotheInServicecase),butdropsbelowtheInServicecaseby2024,reflectingthe
cumulativeeffectsofenergyefficiencyandtheannualoutputofCHPEenergyprovisionbeinggreater
thanIPECoutputbythen.
CO2Emissions
AsshowninFigures15and16below,instateNewYorkemissionsdeclinefrom2016levelsinboththe
referencescenario(IPECInService,CESAssumedEElevels)andtheHighEE,CHPEscenario.
Figure17illustratesthatinordertomaximizeemissionsreduction,includingthoseassociatedwith
importedenergy,aggressivelevelsofenergyefficiencyandtheproductionofadditionalrenewable
energy(modeledinthiscaseastheenergyassociatedwiththeCHPEproject)isrequired.

Figure15.ReferencecaseCO2emissionsIPECInService,CESAssumedEE
IPECInServ,CESAssumedEE
40
35
30
MillionsofMetricTons,CO2
25 Imports
Other
20
NGCT
15
NGCC
10 Coal
0
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
5

Figure16.HighEEandCHPERetirementscenarioCO2emissions
RetirementCase,HighEE+CHPE
40
35
MillionsofMetricTons,CO2
30
25 Imports
20 Other
15 NGCT
NGCC
10
Coal
5
5
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

SourceforFigures16and17:ReEDSmodelingoutputandSynapseestimationofemissionsassociatedwithnonQuebecimports.
AsshowninFigure17,below,whichallowsforanallscenariohighlevelviewofCO2emissionpatterns
overtime,instateNewYorkemissionsdeclinesubstantiallyineveryscenariomodeled,andemissions

associatedwithimportsvaryacrossscenarios.Thisdeclineislargelydrivenbytheinstaterequirement
tomeethalfofloadwithrenewablesby2030inadditiontothedecliningRGGIcap.
Figure17.InstateNewYorkCO2emissionsbyscenario,millionmetrictons
In-Serv, CES EE In-Serv, Status Quo EE

40 40
35 35
30 30
Imports Imports
25 25
Other Other
20 20
NGCT NGCT
15 15
NGCC NGCC
10 10
Coal Coal
5 5
0 0
-5
Retire, CES EE Retire, High EE

40 40
35 35
30 30
Imports Imports
25 25
Other Other
20 20
NGCT NGCT
15 15
NGCC NGCC
10 10
Coal Coal
5 5
0 0
Retire, CES EE + CHPE Retire, High EE + CHPE

40 40
35 35
30 30
Imports 25 Imports
25
Other 20 Other
20
NGCT 15 NGCT
15
NGCC 10 NGCC
10 5
Coal Coal
5 0
0 -5

3. CAPACITYANDRELIABILITY
NewYorkcurrentlyprojectssurplusinstalledcapacitythrough2026relativetotheNewYorkISOs
49
requiredreservemargin. WithIPECoutofservicein2022,thissurplusiseroded;however,thereisno
needtofullyreplacethe2,060MWIPECstationwithanequivalentamountofnewcapacity.Roughly
1,150MWofNewYorkscurrentsurplus(morethantheoutputofoneofIPECsunits)coulddisappear
50
fromthelowerHudsonValleythisyearandreliabilitywouldstillbemaintained. By2022,thefirstfull
51
yearofIPECretirement,peakloadprojectionsinNewYorkstatewillhavecontinuedtodecline, new
resourceswillbeonlinebothunderconstructiongasfiredresourcesandnewrenewableresources
52
andadditionaltransmissionsupportbetweenupstateanddownstateNewYorkwilllikelybeinplace.
Alltold,thesefactorsmitigateagainstreliabilityconcernsthatmightotherwisearisewiththelossof
suchalargesourceofcapacity.Inshort,peakloadreductionsthroughenergyefficiency,continuing
developmentanddeploymentofdistributedsolarPVgeneration,deploymentoflargerscalerenewable
resources,andtransmissionsystemreinforcementallpointtonoadditionalneedforlargescalegas
firedgenerationorstorageresourcerequirementstoreplaceIPECuntillaterinthedecadeofthe2020s
whenolderoilandgassteamunitsarelikelytoretire.OurReEDSmodelingreflectsthis.
ReliabilityisassessedbytheNewYorkISOregularly,andtheNYISOissuesaformalreport,theReliability
NeedAssessment(RNA),everytwoyears.InOctober2016,theNYISOreleaseditslatestfindings,which
indicatedanincreaseinsurpluscapacityinNewYorkStatein2016comparedtoitsfindingsinthe
53
previous2014report. Thischangethatoccurredfrom2014to2016isnotablebecauseitarises
primarilyfromafindingthatthepeakloadforecastforNewYorkhasdeclinedconsiderablyby2,300
MWfor2021comparedtotheanalysisperformedin2014.Thischangeisattributedtothe
deploymentoftwocriticalresourcesenergyefficiencyimprovementsandinstallationofdistributed
behindthemetersolarPVresources.Thesefindingsshowthat,afteraccountingfortheseresources,
thenetpeakloadforecastforNewYorkStateisnowinadeclining,yearoveryearpattern.Thismeans
thattheaggregatelevelofenergyrequiredfromallotherresourcesonthegridwind,nuclear,gas,
hydro,imports,oil,largescalesolarwillbelowerovertime,relativeto2016.
49
NewYorkISO2016GoldBook,TableV2a:NYCALoadandCapacityScheduleSummerCapabilityPeriod,InstalledReserve
Percent,Page78.
50
NewYorkISO,2016ReliabilityNeedsAssessment,zonalcapacityatrisk(page44).
51
Forexample,attheendof2016,NYISOsprojectionforpeakloadinNewYorkin2017wasalreadylowerthanwasindicated
inthe2016GoldBook.IncreasesinNewYorkStateefficiencyprogramspursuanttotheCES,andcontinuinginstallationof
smallscalebehindthemetersolarPVwilldriveNYISOnetpeakloadreductionsforanygivenyearinthefuturetolower
levelsthanthecurrentforecastvintageindicates.
52
PursuanttothesocalledACProceedingsattheNewYorkPublicServiceCommission,whereanincreaseinupstateto
downstatetransfercapacityofroughly1,000MWisplannedforthe20202021timeframe.
53
NewYorkISO,2016ReliabilityNeedsAssessment.October18,2016.
http://www.nyiso.com/public/webdocs/media_room/press_releases/2016/Child_2016_RNA/2016RNA_Final_Oct18_2016.p
df.

TheNYISOalsoanalyzedascenariowithIPECretired.Itfound,notsurprisingly,thatifbothunitsatIPEC
wereretired(essentiallyimmediately)withnoadditionalsupplyordemandsideresourceconsiderations,
therewouldbeareliabilityviolation.Itisimportanttonotethattheviolationfortheyearofretirement
wasonlyhalfofwhatitwasinits2014study,andaswithallsuchresourceadequacystudiesitonly
indicatedanelevatedstatisticalchanceofaresourceshortageratherthanaguaranteedshortfallof
neededcapacity.However,IPECretirementwillnotoccurinavacuum.Wenowhavethreeyearslead
timeforjustthefirsthalfofitsretirement;andmanyresourcesareavailabletomakeupanyshortfallin
requirements,inlinewiththestructureandintentoftheNYISOcapacitymarketconstruct.Theselection
ofthespecificresourcestomeetanyneedswilldependonmarketforcesandthetimeavailable
betweenanannouncedretirementandtheactualretirement.
In2017,NYISOwillcompleteitsComprehensiveReliabilityPlan(CRP)todeterminewhatlevelofnew
capacityisneededtoensureareliablelevelofresourcesuponIPECretirementin2020/2021.Inthe
2014study,theamountofdownstateresourcerequiredin2016fora2016shortfallduetofullIPEC
retirementwas500MW,althoughupdatedloadforecastseffectivelyreducedthisamountto134MW.
134MWofshortfallcapacitywouldhavebeenattainablethroughthemarketinaveryshorttimeframe,
certainlylessthanoneyear,ifnotsooner.Theamountofresourcerequirementfora2017retirement
wouldhavebeenlowerthan500MWbecausethereliabilityviolationindicatedinthe2016RNAwas
substantiallylessthanwhatwasseeninthe2014report.Already,in2017,theloadforecastinformation
thattheNYISOusedtoconductthe2016RNAisoutdated,asthe2017peakloadforecastis180MW
54
lowerthanitwasfor2017whentheRNAwasconducted.

54
NYISO,2017ICAPLoadForecast,December2016.Availableat:
http://www.nyiso.com/public/webdocs/markets_operations/committees/bic_icapwg_lftf/meeting_materials/201612
20/2017_ICAP_Final.pdf.Ascomparedto2016GoldBookpeakloadforecastfor2017,page11oftheGoldBook.Availableat
http://www.nyiso.com/public/webdocs/markets_operations/services/planning/Documents_and_Resources/Planning_Data_
and_Reference_Docs/Data_and_Reference_Docs/2016_Load__Capacity_Data_Report.pdf.

4. CONCLUSIONS
RetirementoftheIndianPointnuclearfacilitywilloccurduringNewYorkStatessweepingtransitionto
useofcleanerelectricitygenerationsourcesand,withappropriatepolicymechanisms,increasing
efficiencyofelectricityuse.Ouranalysisofreplacementenergyandcapacityresourcesnecessarily
accountsforthistransition;anditdemonstratesthecriticalimportanceofenergyefficiency
improvementstoeffectivelydisplaceincreasingproportionsofIPECsoutputduringthenextdecade.
NewYorkwillrequireanaggressiveenergyefficiencypolicyframeworkinordertosecurethe
improvementsneededtoobtaineithertheCESassumedorthehighefficiencyscenarioswemodel
inthisanalysis.
Critically,suchapolicyframeworkisnotcurrentlyinplaceinNewYorkforattainingthelevelsofenergy
efficiencycontemplatedinfiveofthesixscenariosconsideredinthisanalysis.OnlytheIPECinservice
statusquoEEcaseislikelytoreachitsassumedlevelsofenergyefficiencywithoutfurtherregulatory
support.ThelevelsofenergyefficiencyassumedintheCESorderhavenobindingmechanisms,other
thantheETIPsapprovedforeachoftheutilities.TheseETIPsrequireonlyasmallfractionofthe2,227
GWhannualincrementalsavingsthatareassumedbytheCESorderandreflectedintheCESassumed
efficiencyscenariosmodeledherein.NosuchenforceablemechanismexistsforNYSERDAorforthe
nonjurisdictionalentities(NYPA,LIPA,anddirectNYISOcustomers).Andwhileevenhigherlevelsof
energyefficiencyarepossible,consistentwithourHighEEscenarios,NewYorkmustimplement
immediateandvigorouspolicymeasuresinordertoreachthem.Relyingonmarketbasedinitiativesand
thirdpartydeveloperstoanimatemarketsforenergyefficiency,ashasbeentheNYCommissions
statedpreference,isunlikelytoresultinthesehighefficiencylevelsonitsown.Provenprogramand
procurementmethodsmustalsobeused.Policiestosupporthigherenergyefficiencylevelscould
include,forexample,settinghigherenergyefficiencysavingstargetsandestablishingeffective
shareholderperformanceincentivemechanisms.
Theeffectofthe50by30renewableenergypolicyinitiativesisseeninourmodelingthroughthe
buildoutofincreasingamountsofsolarandwindenergythrough2030,includingourhardwired
provisionoftheStatesoffshorewindgoalsfor2030.TheeffectofthisbuildoutistoincreaseNew
Yorksrelianceonrenewableenergy(inclusiveofinStatehydroandexistingQuebecimports)to
upwardsof70millionMWhperyearby2030intheCESassumedEEscenarios,withtheultimatelevelof
renewableenergydeployedinourmodelingexercisedependentonthetotalloadinthestate.Theless
costlybuildoutscenarioistheonewherethemostaggressivelevelsofenergyefficiencyarefirst
implemented.Theimpactofsuchrenewableenergyincreasesisseeninthegenerallycontinuingdecline
infossilfuelgeneratedelectricity,anddecliningCO2emissions,inallofourretirementscenarios.
WehavemodeledtheamountofrenewablesinalignmentwithNewYorkCESpolicy,butaccelerated
productionofrenewableenergyabovethelevelsconsideredbythe50by30policycouldbeachieved
withadditionaleffort.Tworetirementscenarioswemodeledincludedthepresenceofaroughly7
millionMWh/yearCHPEproject,whichservestodemonstrateascenariowiththatspecificprojectbut
canalsobeconsideredaproxyscenarioforincreasesinlowcarbonenergybeyondthatcalledforinthe

CES50x30requirement.NewYorkcouldchoosetomorerapidlyexpanditsproductionofrenewable
solarandwindenergybeyondwhatthe50by30trajectorycallsfor.Ourmodeling,usingtheCHPE
projectasaproxy,showsthatsuchscenarioswouldincuronlymodestcostincreasesbeyondwhat
wouldotherwiseoccurwiththecurrenttrajectorytomeet2030renewablerequirements.
Theoverallcostimpact(asmeasuredbytheNPVofwholesalecostsover15years)ofretiringtheIPEC
facilityisminimal,andifNewYorkcansuccessfullyattainbestpracticesinutilityprogramenergy
efficiencyimplementation,IPECretirementscenarioswouldbelesscostlythatwhatwouldbeseen
undercurrent,statusquolevelsofenergyefficiencyimplementation.UsingaCESassumedlevelof
energyefficiencyimprovementasabaseline,theoverallwholesalecostsofaretirementscenariothat
deploysaggressivelevelsofenergyefficiencyisonly0.2%higherthanthatbaseline,basedona15year
NPVassessment.EvenunderassumptionsthatonlyaCESassumedlevelofEEimprovementcouldbe
attained,IPECretirementcosts(15yearwholesaleNPV)areonly0.7%abovethereferenceinservice
scenario.
NewYorkStatecarbonemissionscancontinueontheirdownwardtrajectorywithoutIPEC.The
combinedeffectofaggressiveenergyefficiencyand50x30renewablesdeploymentmodeledinour
retirementscenariosisongoingdecreasesintheuseoffossilfuelstogenerateelectricityinNewYork
andtheneedforenergyimportsfromnearbyfossilintensiveregionslikePJM.Wehaveshownthat
NewYorkcaneasilyexceeditselectricsectorgreenhousegasemissionreductiongoalsby2030by
deploymentofenergyefficiencyandrenewableenergyinplaceoftheIPECfacility.

Appendix
TheReEDSModel
ReEDSisalongtermcapacityexpansionanddispatchmodeloftheelectricpowersysteminthelower
48states.Ithasahighlevelofrenewableenergyresourcedetailwithmanywindandsolarresource
regions,eachwithavailabilitybyresourceclassanduniquegridconnectioncosts.Modeloutputsinclude
generation,capacity,transmissionexpansion,capitalandoperatingcosts,andemissionsofCO2,SO2,
55
NOX,andmercury. Themodeloperatesthrough2050intwoyearsteps,witheachtwoyearperiod
dividedinto17timeslices.Thesetimeslicesrepresentmorning,afternoon,evening,andnightineachof
thefourseasons,plusanadditionalsummerpeaktimeslicerepresentingthe40highestdemandhours
ofthesummer.Thetimeslicesrepresentthewindowsof10p.m.to6a.m.,6a.m.to1p.m.,1p.m.to5
p.m.,and5p.m.to10p.m.ineachseason.ReEDSincludesdataontheexistingfossilfuelfacilitiesin
eachofthemodels134PowerControlAreas(PCAs).NewYorkStateisrepresentedbytwoPCAs.
ReEDSbenefitsfromNRELsdetaileddatasetsonrenewableresourcepotentialsandconstraintsacross
thecountry,providingahigherlevelofresolutionthansimilarindustrymodels.Windresourcesare
modeledin356regionsoftheUnitedStates(with10inNewYork),basedonhighresolutionwindspeed
modelingandtakingintoaccountenvironmentalandlanduseexclusions.Biomass,geothermal,solar
PV,andhydropowerplantsarebuiltattheresolutionofthemodels134PCAs.
55
Shortetal.2010.RegionalEnergyDeploymentSystem(ReEDS).Availableat:http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/46534.pdf.
IndianPointEnergyCenterReplacementEnergyAnalysis42

NewYorksCleanEnergyStandard
OnAugust1,2016,thePublicServiceCommissionofNewYorkpassedanOrderadoptingastatewide
CleanEnergyStandardinordertoachievetheStateEnergyPlansgoalofgenerating50percentofthe
stateselectricitydemandfromrenewablesby2030.Citingtheimpactsofclimatechangealreadyfeltby
thestateofNewYorkandthenumerousquantifiableandunquantifiablebenefitsassociatedwith
shiftingtowardszeroemissionsourcesofgeneration,theCommissionsorderisstrongandunwavering,
markingafirmcommitmenttothesepolicies.
TheorderadoptingtheCEScallsforarampupperiodtowardsthe2030requirement.Duringtheearly
yearsofthepolicy,instateLoadServingEntitiesarerequiredtoprocureincrementalnewrenewable
generationtocoverfrom0.6percentofretailloadin2017to4.8percentofretailloadin2021.These
arevaluesofrequiredincrementalnewrenewablegenerationtobeprocured,nottotalrenewable
generationrequiredbyyear.From2022through2030,theCommissionplanstoestablishmore
substantialannualtargetswithanupwardslopingtrajectory.
Inordertobeeligibletocounttowardthe50by30requirement,arenewableresourcemustdeliver
intoNYISO.Accordingly,resourcescanhelpachievecompliancewiththeCESonlyiftheyareprocuredor
currentlyexistinstate,orarelocatedinadjacentcontrolareastoNewYork(i.e.,PJMorISONE)and
possessadocumentedcontractpathfordeliveryofthatenergyspecificallytoNewYork.Thisexemption
forresourcesfromadjacentcontrolareasdoesnotapplytoimportedhydroenergy.Further,compliance
canbeachievedbyawidevarietyofresources:utilityanddistributedsolar,onshoreandoffshorewind,
56
biogas,biomass,liquidbiofuels,fuelcells,andtidal/oceanenergyarealleligibleresources. Inour
modelingoftheCES,however,wefocusspecificallyonutilityanddistributedPVinadditiontoonshore
andoffshorewindforcompliance.Thereasonforthisisthattheyaretheresourcesthatcurrentlyhave
thebesteconomicsandarethemostlikelytobeprocuredinNewYork.Whileweincludescenarios
withtheChamplainHudsonPowerExpressproject,wedonotcountthatprojectsoutputas
contributingtomeetingtheCESorderrequirementsforrenewableenergy.
Notably,theCESdoesnotaffordspecialstatustoenergyefficiency,electricvehicles,storageresources
orheatpumpsatthistime.TheonlywayinwhichefficiencycancontributetowardsCEScomplianceis
byreducinginstate,orLSEspecificannualload.Whenloadisreduced,theoverallrequirementfor
producingrenewablegenerationislowered,asthepercenttargetsaremappedtolowerfuturenet
loads.
Further,whilenuclearresourcescannotcontributetothe50by30renewablesmandate,theirabilityto
providezeroemissionenergyisrecognizedthroughtheZeroEnergyCredit(ZEC)programpassedwithin
theCES.TheZECobligationisanadditiveprogramdesignedspecificallytoreduceemissionsbeyondthe
impactoftherenewableenergyportionoftheCES.ThepricesofZECsarepreestablishedand
guaranteedbetween2017and2022,butwillbeupforreviewatthatpointfortheremainderoftheCES.
56
SeeAppendixAtotheCESorderforresourceeligibility.

Asaresultofthisprovision,wemodelareferencecaseinwhichallupstatenuclearunitsremainonline
through2030.
DetailedModelingResultsAdditionalTables
Energy/Generation
TableA1.Referencecase(CESEE)IPECinservicegeneration,TWh
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
42.6 42.6 42.6 42.6 42.6 42.6 42.6 42.6
Nuclear
4.3 2.1 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Coal
61.4 56.7 50.3 46.8 40.8 34.6 31.0 15.2
Gas
0.0 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.5 5.5 17.0
New Gas
27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4
Hydro
5.0 5.2 5.2 8.2 13.6 18.8 21.8 23.9
Wind
0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.5 5.2
Solar
1.2 2.3 3.7 5.6 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.5
DG PV
1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
Biopower
6.0 4.6 4.1 3.5 3.5 5.3 1.5 1.5
Oil-Gas-Steam
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Storage
8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
Canadian Hydro
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
CHPE
161.0 159.8 157.7 155.0 152.9 150.6 148.3 146.1
Load
A1
TableA2.StatusQuoEEIPECinservicereferencecasegeneration,TWh
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
42.6 42.6 42.6 42.6 42.6 42.6 42.6 42.6
Nuclear
4.4 2.9 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Coal
61.6 56.9 50.6 47.4 41.4 34.7 31.9 13.7
Gas
0.0 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.2 6.4 6.5 19.7
New Gas
27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4
Hydro
5.0 5.2 5.2 9.7 16.0 20.8 23.9 26.8
Wind
0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.9 5.0 8.3
Solar
1.2 2.3 3.7 5.6 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.5
DG PV
1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
Biopower
5.9 4.9 5.7 4.4 4.7 5.1 1.5 1.5
Oil-Gas-Steam
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Storage
8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
Canadian Hydro
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
CHPE
161.8 162.1 161.5 160.4 159.9 159.2 158.5 157.9
Load
A2
TableA3.Retirescenario,referenceCESEE,TWh
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
42.6 42.6 36.5 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.2
Nuclear
4.3 2.1 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Coal
61.4 56.7 51.1 49.5 42.8 33.5 32.0 14.2
Gas
0.0 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.2 10.3 10.3 23.1
New Gas
27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4
Hydro
5.0 5.2 5.2 8.2 13.6 17.6 21.0 23.7
Wind
0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.5 3.3 5.4
Solar
1.2 2.3 3.7 5.6 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.5
DG PV
1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
Biopower
6.0 4.6 5.7 5.3 5.0 5.3 1.5 1.5
Oil-Gas-Steam
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Storage
8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
Canadian Hydro
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
CHPE
161.0 159.8 157.7 155.0 152.9 150.6 148.3 146.1
Load
A3
TableA4.Retirescenario,HighEE,TWh
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
42.6 42.6 36.5 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.2
Nuclear
4.3 1.9 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Coal
61.4 56.7 50.9 49.0 44.3 36.9 34.0 16.4
Gas
0.0 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 17.4
New Gas
27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4
Hydro
5.0 5.2 5.2 5.3 8.8 11.9 14.8 17.8
Wind
0.2 1.1 2.6 4.4 4.7 5.0 5.2 5.4
Solar
1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
DG PV
1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
Biopower
6.0 4.4 3.9 3.9 3.0 5.2 1.5 1.5
Oil-Gas-Steam
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Storage
8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
Canadian Hydro
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
CHPE
161.0 159.1 153.9 146.5 140.2 134.0 128.3 122.9
Load
A4
TableA5.Retirescenario,CHPE,referenceEE,TWh
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
42.6 42.6 36.5 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.2
Nuclear
4.4 2.1 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Coal
61.5 56.7 50.6 48.5 42.1 35.7 32.7 14.8
Gas
0.0 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 7.6 7.6 21.0
New Gas
27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4
Hydro
5.0 5.2 5.2 8.2 13.6 18.8 22.0 24.3
Wind
0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.2 4.8
Solar
1.2 2.3 3.7 5.6 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.5
DG PV
1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
Biopower
5.7 4.5 5.7 4.4 4.3 5.3 1.5 1.5
Oil-Gas-Steam
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Storage
8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
Canadian Hydro
0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
CHPE
161.0 159.8 157.7 155.0 152.9 150.6 148.3 146.1
Load
A5
TableA6.Retirescenario,CHPE,HighEE,TWh
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
42.6 42.6 36.5 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.2
Nuclear
4.4 1.8 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Coal
61.5 56.7 51.0 48.7 44.3 37.5 31.4 14.6
Gas
0.0 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 17.9
New Gas
27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4
Hydro
5.0 5.2 5.2 5.3 8.8 11.9 14.7 17.2
Wind
0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Solar
1.2 2.3 3.7 5.6 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.5
DG PV
1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
Biopower
5.7 4.3 3.9 3.1 2.6 4.6 1.5 1.5
Oil-Gas-Steam
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Storage
8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
Canadian Hydro
0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
CHPE
161.0 159.1 153.9 146.5 140.2 134.0 128.3 122.9
Load
A6
Capacity
TableA7.ReferenceCase(CESEE)IPECInService,ICAPCapacity,MW
Reference 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
5,383 5,383 5,383 5,383 5,383 5,383 5,383 5,383
Nuclear
925 925 232 0 0 0 0 0
Coal
12,890 12,355 12,069 12,001 11,578 11,048 10,334 9,816
Gas
7 747 747 747 747 1,347 1,426 3,212
New Gas
4,682 4,682 4,682 4,682 4,682 4,682 4,682 4,682
Hydro
1,782 1,824 1,824 2,566 3,930 5,282 5,985 6,420
Wind
200 200 200 200 200 200 1,550 3,287
Solar
948 1,761 2,859 4,311 4,601 4,838 5,029 5,265
DG PV
164 164 164 164 164 164 164 164
Biopower
9,324 8,226 6,865 6,454 5,545 5,543 4,388 2,412
Oil-Gas-Steam
1,407 1,407 1,407 1,407 1,407 1,407 2,727 2,727
Storage
1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100
Canadian Hydro
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHPE
38,810 38,773 37,531 39,013 39,336 40,993 42,768 44,466
ICAP Total
Notes:2020nuclearcapacityreflectsaproportionatederatingassociatedwiththefirstunitretirementinApril.Canadianhydro
capacitylevelbasedonexternalimportcapacityvalue.Thewindcategoryreflectshardwiringofoffshorewindresourcesinthe
modelbasedon2,400MWby2030,startingwith600MWin2024,increasingto1200MWby2026and1800MWby2028.
A7
TableA8.ReferencecaseStatusQouEE,IPECinservice,ICAPcapacity,MW
Reference, Low EE 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
5,383 5,383 5,383 5,383 5,383 5,383 5,383 5,383
Nuclear
925 925 232 0 0 0 0 0
Coal
12,890 12,355 12,069 12,001 11,578 11,048 10,334 9,816
Gas
7 747 822 822 822 1,750 2,144 4,628
New Gas
4,682 4,682 4,682 4,682 4,682 4,682 4,682 4,682
Hydro
1,782 1,824 1,824 3,003 4,590 5,825 6,566 7,207
Wind
331 331 331 331 331 1,195 3,139 5,203
Solar
948 1,761 2,859 4,311 4,601 4,838 5,029 5,265
DG PV
164 164 164 164 164 164 164 164
Biopower
9,324 8,226 6,865 6,454 5,545 5,543 4,388 2,412
Oil-Gas-Steam
1,407 1,407 1,407 1,407 1,407 1,407 2,727 2,727
Storage
1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100
Canadian Hydro
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHPE
38,942 38,905 37,738 39,658 40,203 42,934 45,657 48,586
ICAP Total
A8
TableA9.Retirementscenario,referenceload(CESEE)ICAPcapacity,MW
Retire, Ref Load 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
5,383 5,383 4,618 3,319 3,319 3,319 3,319 3,319
Nuclear
925 925 232 0 0 0 0 0
Coal
12,890 12,355 12,069 12,001 11,578 11,048 10,334 9,816
Gas
7 747 747 747 883 1,534 1,896 3,910
New Gas
4,682 4,682 4,682 4,682 4,682 4,682 4,682 4,682
Hydro
1,782 1,824 1,824 2,565 3,926 4,937 5,770 6,336
Wind
200 200 200 200 200 956 2,044 3,406
Solar
948 1,761 2,859 4,311 4,601 4,838 5,029 5,265
DG PV
164 164 164 164 164 164 164 164
Biopower
9,324 8,226 6,865 6,454 5,545 5,543 4,388 2,412
Oil-Gas-Steam
1,407 1,407 1,407 1,407 1,407 1,407 2,546 2,546
Storage
1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100
Canadian Hydro
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHPE
38,810 38,773 36,766 36,949 37,403 39,526 41,273 42,955
ICAP Total
A9
TableA10.Retirementscenario,highenergyefficiency,ICAPcapacity,MW
Retire, High EE 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
5,383 5,383 4,618 3,319 3,319 3,319 3,319 3,319
Nuclear
925 925 232 0 0 0 0 0
Coal
12,890 12,355 12,069 12,001 11,578 11,048 10,334 9,816
Gas
7 747 747 747 747 747 747 2,304
New Gas
4,682 4,682 4,682 4,682 4,682 4,682 4,682 4,682
Hydro
1,782 1,824 1,824 1,860 2,663 3,401 4,102 4,710
Wind
200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200
Solar
948 1,761 2,859 4,311 4,601 4,838 5,029 5,265
DG PV
164 164 164 164 164 164 164 164
Biopower
9,324 8,226 6,865 6,454 5,545 5,543 4,388 2,412
Oil-Gas-Steam
1,407 1,407 1,407 1,407 1,407 1,407 1,905 1,905
Storage
1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100
Canadian Hydro
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHPE
38,810 38,773 36,766 36,243 36,004 36,447 35,970 35,877
ICAP Total
A10
TableA11.Retirementscenario,CHPE,referenceload(CESEE)ICAPcapacity,MW
Retire, CHPE, Ref 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
5,383 5,383 4,618 3,319 3,319 3,319 3,319 3,319
Nuclear
925 925 232 0 0 0 0 0
Coal
12,890 12,355 12,069 12,001 11,578 11,048 10,334 9,816
Gas
7 747 747 747 747 1,416 1,854 3,712
New Gas
4,682 4,682 4,682 4,682 4,682 4,682 4,682 4,682
Hydro
1,782 1,824 1,824 2,565 3,925 5,263 6,055 6,490
Wind
200 200 200 200 200 200 1,371 3,030
Solar
948 1,761 2,859 4,311 4,601 4,838 5,029 5,265
DG PV
164 164 164 164 164 164 164 164
Biopower
9,324 8,226 6,865 6,454 5,545 5,543 4,388 2,412
Oil-Gas-Steam
1,407 1,407 1,407 1,407 1,407 1,407 2,403 2,403
Storage
1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100
Canadian Hydro
0 0 0 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
CHPE
38,810 38,773 36,766 37,949 38,266 39,978 41,700 43,392
ICAP Total
A11
TableA12.Retirementscenario,CHPE,highenergyefficiencyICAPcapacity,MW
Retire, CHPE, EE 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
5,383 5,383 4,618 3,319 3,319 3,319 3,319 3,319
Nuclear
925 925 232 0 0 0 0 0
Coal
12,890 12,355 12,069 12,001 11,578 11,048 10,334 9,816
Gas
7 747 747 747 747 747 756 2,386
New Gas
4,682 4,682 4,682 4,682 4,682 4,682 4,682 4,682
Hydro
1,782 1,824 1,824 1,860 2,662 3,398 4,081 4,562
Wind
200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200
Solar
948 1,761 2,859 4,311 4,601 4,838 5,029 5,265
DG PV
164 164 164 164 164 164 164 164
Biopower
9,324 8,226 6,865 6,454 5,545 5,543 4,388 2,412
Oil-Gas-Steam
1,407 1,407 1,407 1,407 1,407 1,407 1,407 1,407
Storage
1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100
Canadian Hydro
0 0 0 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
CHPE
38,810 38,773 36,766 37,243 37,004 37,445 36,460 36,312
ICAP Total
Imports
TableA13.Imports/Exports(NonQuebec),TWh
Imports/Exports (+ is import into NY)

2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
ReferenceIPECInService(CESEE) 4.0 4.7 6.5 6.8 4.9 1.3 1.1 1.8
ReferenceIPECInServiceStatusQuoEE 4.4 5.4 8.5 9.0 7.6 5.5 4.8 3.0
RetireRefCESEE 4.0 4.7 10.2 18.7 17.9 14.0 11.7 9.4
RetireHighEE 4.0 4.4 7.8 14.9 10.4 5.9 3.6 0.5
RetireRefCESEE+CHPE 4.2 4.8 10.7 13.6 12.2 7.4 6.6 3.8
RetireHighEE+CHPE 4.2 4.5 7.7 8.9 3.6 1.1 0.6 4.7
A12
Costs
TableA14.CostsbyCostCategory$2016millions
ReferenceCESEE IPECInService
NYTotal 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
9,156 9,090 9,025 8,961 8,900 8,939 8,979 9,229 9,478 9,777 10,076 10,162 10,248 10,401 10,557
Totalcosts
150 214 278 303 327 481 635 976 1,318 1,662 2,007 2,328 2,649 3,033 3,417
Streamofcapitalcosts
2,495 2,451 2,407 2,414 2,422 2,336 2,250 2,195 2,140 2,116 2,092 1,936 1,780 1,706 1,631
Streamoffuelcosts
1,801 1,781 1,761 1,730 1,698 1,689 1,680 1,732 1,783 1,849 1,916 1,935 1,955 1,977 1,999
StreamofFOMcosts
3,514 3,436 3,358 3,245 3,133 3,099 3,065 3,001 2,937 2,911 2,886 2,796 2,706 2,587 2,467
Existingcapacitycosts
243 246 248 259 270 275 280 286 291 295 298 294 289 282 275
Canadianhydro
123 134 145 181 220 230 239 210 180 115 48 43 38 -13 -61
Imports
829 829 829 829 829 829 829 829 829 829 829 829 829 829 829
Energyefficiency
StatusQuoEE IPECInService
NYTotal 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
8,917 8,880 8,842 8,854 8,868 8,951 9,032 9,339 9,646 10,001 10,356 10,517 10,678 10,920 11,163
Totalcosts
177 240 304 359 414 603 791 1,162 1,534 1,934 2,335 2,715 3,095 3,556 4,016
2,501 2,475 2,450 2,479 2,507 2,412 2,316 2,271 2,226 2,174 2,122 1,986 1,851 1,763 1,675
Streamoffuelcosts
1,804 1,785 1,767 1,738 1,710 1,715 1,720 1,780 1,839 1,905 1,972 1,999 2,027 2,060 2,094
StreamofFOMcosts
3,519 3,441 3,363 3,250 3,138 3,104 3,070 3,006 2,942 2,916 2,891 2,801 2,711 2,592 2,472
243 246 248 259 270 275 280 286 291 295 298 294 289 282 275
Canadianhydro
A13
132 150 168 225 287 301 316 297 277 241 204 188 173 137 102
Imports
541 542 543 543 542 541 538 537 537 536 534 533 532 531 530
Energyefficiency
RetireRef
NYTotal 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
9,156 9,090 9,025 8,995 8,971 9,015 9,065 9,329 9,592 9,870 10,145 10,247 10,351 10,499 10,650
Totalcosts
150 214 278 322 367 509 651 1,000 1,350 1,701 2,052 2,389 2,725 3,115 3,505
2,495 2,451 2,407 2,441 2,475 2,392 2,309 2,233 2,157 2,110 2,064 1,946 1,828 1,740 1,652
Streamoffuelcosts
1,801 1,781 1,761 1,694 1,626 1,550 1,474 1,524 1,575 1,635 1,694 1,721 1,749 1,774 1,799
StreamofFOMcosts
3,514 3,436 3,358 3,208 3,059 2,963 2,866 2,803 2,739 2,713 2,688 2,598 2,508 2,388 2,269
243 246 248 259 270 275 280 286 291 295 298 294 289 282 275
Canadianhydro
123 134 145 241 345 498 656 654 652 587 521 471 422 370 322
Imports
829 829 829 829 829 829 829 829 829 829 829 829 829 829 829
Energyefficiency
RetireRefCHPE
NYTotal 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
9,151 9,087 9,023 8,984 8,953 8,865 9,374 9,625 9,876 10,166 10,454 10,558 10,663 10,807 10,953
Totalcosts
151 214 278 314 350 497 643 983 1,322 1,668 2,014 2,353 2,691 3,075 3,460
2,486 2,444 2,401 2,430 2,458 2,338 2,219 2,154 2,090 2,071 2,051 1,906 1,760 1,680 1,600
Streamoffuelcosts
1,800 1,780 1,761 1,693 1,624 1,545 1,466 1,516 1,566 1,634 1,703 1,727 1,751 1,774 1,796
StreamofFOMcosts
3,514 3,436 3,358 3,208 3,059 2,963 2,866 2,803 2,739 2,713 2,688 2,598 2,508 2,388 2,269
A14
243 246 248 259 270 275 875 881 886 890 893 889 884 877 870
Canadianhydro
127 138 148 251 362 418 475 460 444 361 276 258 239 183 129
Imports
829 829 829 829 829 829 829 829 829 829 829 829 829 829 829
Energyefficiency

RetireHighEE
NYTotal 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
9,156 9,089 9,247 9,353 9,450 9,550 9,409 9,474 9,539 9,633 9,726 9,665 9,606 9,617 9,632
Totalcosts
150 214 278 303 327 384 441 702 964 1,191 1,418 1,657 1,895 2,206 2,517
2,495 2,445 2,394 2,395 2,396 2,303 2,211 2,151 2,091 2,051 2,012 1,870 1,729 1,631 1,533
Streamoffuelcosts
1,801 1,781 1,760 1,688 1,616 1,516 1,415 1,445 1,475 1,518 1,561 1,574 1,588 1,605 1,621
StreamofFOMcosts
3,514 3,436 3,358 3,208 3,059 2,963 2,866 2,803 2,739 2,713 2,688 2,598 2,508 2,388 2,269
243 246 248 259 270 275 280 286 291 295 298 294 289 282 275
Canadianhydro
123 129 135 196 263 390 522 451 377 299 220 175 132 72 16
Imports
829 839 1,074 1,303 1,518 1,718 1,674 1,636 1,601 1,566 1,531 1,497 1,464 1,433 1,402
Energyefficiency
RetireHighEECHPE
NYTotal 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
9,151 9,085 9,245 9,352 9,450 9,406 9,712 9,785 9,856 9,944 10,030 9,974 9,919 9,930 9,946
Totalcosts
151 214 278 303 328 373 419 688 957 1,182 1,407 1,645 1,883 2,184 2,486
2,486 2,437 2,387 2,394 2,400 2,279 2,157 2,113 2,069 2,032 1,995 1,810 1,625 1,551 1,477
Streamoffuelcosts
1,800 1,780 1,760 1,688 1,617 1,513 1,409 1,441 1,472 1,515 1,559 1,568 1,578 1,592 1,606
StreamofFOMcosts
A15
3,514 3,436 3,358 3,208 3,059 2,963 2,866 2,803 2,739 2,713 2,688 2,598 2,508 2,388 2,269
243 246 248 259 270 275 875 881 886 890 893 889 884 877 870
Canadianhydro
127 134 140 197 258 285 312 224 132 46 -43 -33 -23 -95 -162
Imports
829 839 1,074 1,303 1,518 1,718 1,674 1,636 1,601 1,566 1,531 1,497 1,464 1,433 1,402
Energyefficiency
9,151 9,085 9,245 9,352 9,450 9,406 9,712 9,785 9,856 9,944 10,030 9,974 9,919 9,930 9,946
Total
A16
TableA15.PriceSchedulesforCostingOutsideofReEDS
Price/costschedules 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Capacitypriceschedule 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
$/kWmonth
PriceofHQimports 30.4 30.7 31.0 32.4 33.7 34.4 35.0 35.7 36.4 36.8 37.3 36.7 36.1 35.2 34.3
$/MWh
CostofCHPE 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0
$/MWh
Priceofimports 30.4 30.7 31.0 32.4 33.7 34.4 35.0 35.7 36.4 36.8 37.3 36.7 36.1 35.2 34.3
$/MWh
TableA16.MarginalEnergyPricesReEDS$/MWh
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
IPEC In-Service CES-Assumed EE (Reference) $30.4 $30.7 $31.0 $32.1 $33.3 $33.8 $34.3 $35.1 $35.9 $36.4 $36.9 $36.4 $35.9 $35.0 $34.1
IPEC In-service Status Quo EE $30.4 $30.8 $31.1 $32.4 $33.7 $34.1 $34.5 $35.3 $36.1 $36.6 $37.1 $36.4 $35.8 $34.9 $34.1
Retire CES-EE $30.4 $30.7 $31.0 $32.4 $33.8 $34.7 $35.6 $36.2 $36.8 $37.1 $37.4 $36.8 $36.2 $35.3 $34.4
Retire High EE $30.4 $30.7 $31.0 $32.3 $33.6 $34.3 $34.9 $35.6 $36.3 $36.8 $37.3 $36.8 $36.3 $35.3 $34.4
Retire CES-EE + CHPE $30.4 $30.7 $31.0 $32.4 $33.8 $34.3 $34.8 $35.6 $36.3 $36.8 $37.2 $36.6 $36.1 $35.2 $34.3
Retire High EE + CHPE $30.4 $30.7 $31.0 $32.3 $33.7 $34.2 $34.8 $35.4 $36.1 $36.6 $37.2 $36.6 $36.1 $35.2 $34.2

A17

Clean Energy For New York

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CleanEnergyforNewYork

RetireHighEE+CHPE 104,496 1.7

Status Quo - IPEC In-Service, No Change to EE Policy

Reference - IPEC In-Service, CES-Assumed EE Policy Implementation

Retirement Case, CES-Assumed EE Policy Implementation

IPEC EE Renewables NY Fossil + Non-Quebec Imports

IPEC EE Renewables NY Fossil + Non-Quebec Imports

IPEC EE Renewables NY Fossil + Imports

IPEC EE Renewables NY Fossil + Imports

IPEC EE Renewables NY Fossil + Imports

IPEC EE Renewables NY Fossil + Imports

ReferenceScenario 6.1 7.5 2.8 14.9 29.1 (27.7)

TWhChangesfromIPECInService 2022 2030

HighEE+CHPERetirementScenario 8.5 4.2 3.7 23.2 (4.6) (2.3)

TWhChangesfromIPECInServiceCase 2022 2030

HighEE+CHPERetirementScenario 13.9 2.4 0.1 35.0 (10.5) (8.2)

Reference - IPEC In-Service, CES-Assumed EE Policy Implementation

2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Totalcosts 9,156 9,025 8,900 8,979 9,478 10,076 10,248 10,557

2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

StreamofFOMcosts 1,800 1,760 1,617 1,409 1,472 1,559 1,578 1,606

Existingcapacitycosts 3,514 3,358 3,059 2,866 2,739 2,688 2,508 2,269

Total 9,151 9,245 9,450 9,712 9,856 10,030 9,919 9,946

In-Serv, CES EE In-Serv, Status Quo EE

Retire, CES EE Retire, High EE

Retire, CES EE + CHPE Retire, High EE + CHPE

Imports/Exports (+ is import into NY)

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