Wind Energy:

leading the clean

technology
revolution

Tom Kerr
Quantum Leap for Wind in Asia
Structured Consultation
Manila, the Philippines
21 June 2010

Technology Roadmap
Wind energy
The views expressed in this presentation are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent those of the Asian Development Bank.
© OECD/IEA 2009
IEA energy technology activities

• Where are we today?

• Global Gaps analysis of low-carbon energy RD&D spending
• In-depth country reviews
• Where do we need to be in 2030? 2050?
• 2030: World Energy Outlook
• 2050: Energy Technology Perspectives
• How do we get there?
• Low carbon technology roadmaps
• Accelerating Energy Innovation project on technology RD&D
policy
• Low-carbon energy technology platform

Technology Roadmap
Wind energy
© OECD/IEA 2009
A sustainable energy future:
the ‘450 Scenario’
42 Abatement by technology, 2030
By region World
40

Reference Scenario Efficiency – 45%

38 Renewables &
biofuels – 21%
OECD+ Nuclear– 13%
36 Efficiency – 57%
CCS – 20%

34
13.8 Gt
Efficiency – 67%
32 3.8 Gt Renewables &
Other Major biofuels – 23%
Economies Renewables &
30 biofuels – 19%
Nuclear – 8%
Other CCS – 6%
28 Countries Efficiency – 55% Nuclear– 10%
450 Scenario Renewables &
biofuels – 34% CCS – 10%
26 Nuclear– 9%
2007 2015 2020 2025 2030
Efficiency measures account for 2/3 of the 3.8Gt abatement in 2020. Renewables contribute 20%.
© OECD/IEA 2009

With substantial abatement potential outside the OECD+ region,

Source: Early excerptfinancing
of WEO 2009 will be key
for Bangkok to the
UNFCCC meeting
energy sector meeting aRoadmap
Technology 450 ppm trajectory.
Source: World Energy Outlook, IEA 2009 Wind energy
© OECD/IEA 2009
 Wind power growing rapidly

Wind power shows exponential growth – but market forces alone may not be enough
to ensure high quality deployment.

Technology Roadmap
Wind energy
© OECD/IEA 2009
 Wind energy status today:
China and India in the top 5

MW

Technology Roadmap
Wind energy
© OECD/IEA 2009
Wind power global potential to 2050

Must add 17,000 turbines a year for the next 40 years

Technology Roadmap
Wind energy
© OECD/IEA 2009
Global map of regional wind power capacity
…how do we get there from here?

Technology Roadmap
Wind energy
© OECD/IEA 2009
 What are the goals
of a regional wind power effort in Asia?
• What are the main rationales?
– Local pollution reduction (air, soil, water)
– Economic growth
– Affordable electrification
– Addressing high water usage of other resources
– Energy security through production of a local energy resource
– Climate mitigation
… the answer will help calibrate ambition, economic
support; and target setting
– Process will be more meaningful at the national level

Technology Roadmap
Wind energy
© OECD/IEA 2009
 Regional effort must identify specific tasks

• Targets will clarify the challenges. For example:

• How much public & private investment needed
– What deployment incentives?
– What R&D investment?
– What supply chain investment?
• Policy framework
• lifting import restrictions on foreign turbines
• Permitting requirements
• How much transmission – where, and who pays?
• Evolution of wider power system
Technology Roadmap
Wind energy
© OECD/IEA 2009
Technology Roadmap
Wind energy
© OECD/IEA 2009
 IEA roadmap can be used as a checklist
IEA Wind Energy Roadmap Action Egypt Wind CIP
Assess wind resource 4 regions set as priority; based on
modern wind atlas & >30 met masts
Develop human capacity NREA established 1986 gives wind
training to MENA region, runs 450 MW
Set firm targets Government 20% long-term RE target;
2500 MW IPP prog, 1000 MW NREA
Accelerate local supply chain & Includes a goal; local content bonus
manufacturing points in 2500 MW IPP/BOO tenders
Continuous feedback between R&D to IEC certification + hot climate + dust &
improve technology sand + winds>11m/s; first 450 MW
Ensure integration of wind resource Priority CTF investment in 280 km 500
into local electricity grid kV transmission line to high-wind area
Centralise government authority to NREA authority to lease public land
plan infrastructure and wind devpt >7000 km2. Utility& NREA task force
Ensure level playing field for electricity New Electricity Law offers incentive
access to grid at a fair price and guaranteed access
Engage communities on infrastructure Not included in CIP; all wind farms
needs Technologylocated in remote desert areas
Roadmap
7/6/2010 Wind energy
© OECD/IEA 2009
For more information

www.iea.org/roadmaps

Tom.kerr@iea.org

Technology Roadmap
Wind energy
© OECD/IEA 2009