Dynamic Weather:

The Process of
Forecasting
 Weather Forecaster (ThinkSpace)

Access the Dynamic Weather Forecasting area

on ThinkSpace
You should see Weather Forecaster and any
other simulations that are available.

Click on Weather Forecaster

Click on Start Case.

 Weather Forecaster - Details

12 questions 36 points possible.

3 points for correct forecast.

1 point for effort.

12 points just for trying.

 Important info
Forecasts for Des Moines (KDSM) are due at midnight.

You can change your forecast as many times as you like

before midnight.

Your best 30 forecasts will count toward your final grade.

There are 99 forecast opportunities remaining. Take

advantage of as many as possible! (Last day to forecast:
April 28th)

Forecasting is worth 15% of your final grade.

 Question 1

Remember: If at least broken clouds (75 or

more coverage) are reported for three or
more hours in the 6 hours before 12Z, cloud
cover inhibiting radiational cooling will be
significant.

Try looking at the forecasted sky cover

NWS Resource: KDSM Hourly Forecast
 Question 2

NWS Resource: WPCs Short Range Forecast

Daily Forecasting Exercise Grading Criteria
Fronts
Match the Fronts!
 Question 3

Significant advection will occur when at

least 1 F temperature change occurs
due to advection in the two hours
preceding 12Z.

NWS Resource: KDSM Hourly Forecast

Apply Your Knowledge of
Advections
1) Which area/region is
experiencing warm air
advection?
a) Eastern Montana
b) Central Alabama
c) Eastern Arizona
d) Northern Kentucky
Answer: d)

2) Which area/region is
experiencing cold air
advection
a) Eastern Montana
b) Central Alabama
c) Eastern Arizona
d) Northern Kentucky
Answer: b)
 Question 4

NWS Resource: KDSM Hourly Forecast

 Question 5

Daytime cloud cover evaluated at 15Z, 16Z,

17Z, and 18Z. If two or more of these times
report 75% or more coverage (broken
clouds or more), clouds will impact daytime
heating.

NWS Resource: KDSM Hourly Forecast

 Question 6

NWS Resource: WPCs Short Range Forecast

 Question 7

NWS Resource: KDSM Hourly Forecast

 Question 8

Note: Watch the unit! It needs to be in

knots not mph

NWS Resource: KDSM Hourly Forecast

 Question 9

NWS Resource: KDSM Hourly Forecast

 Question 10

NWS Resource: KDSM 7 Day Forecast

 Question 11

NWS Resource: WPCs Short Range Forecast

Note: A more advanced technique to
determine moisture supply is to see if the relative
humidity at 850mb is greater than 90%
GFS 850mb RH
 Question 12

NWS Resource: KDSM Hourly Forecast

Daily Forecasting Exercise Grading Criteria
Temperatures verify at 5 F.
Ifthe 12Z temperature was 10 F, you would get credit
for 5F - 15F.
Winds verify at 5 knots.
Daytime cloud cover evaluated at 15Z, 16Z, 17Z, and 18Z
If
two or more of these times report 75% or more
coverage (broken clouds or more), clouds will impact
daytime heating.
Radiational Cooling
Ifat least broken clouds (75 or more coverage) are
reported for three or more hours in the 6 hours before
12Z, radiation cooling will be restrictive.
Daily Forecasting Exercise Grading Criteria
Advection: Significant advection will occur when at least 1 F
temperature change occurs due to advection in the two
hours preceding 18Z
A 10 mi/hr wind blowing directly across a 10 F change
over a distance equal to the N/S distance of Iowa.

Factors impacting precipitation

Fronts: See next slide
Moisture: At least 90% Relatively humidity at 850mb.
A more advanced forecasting technique. Do not worry
about this too much yet.
Instability: We will discuss this more later.
For this time of year, you dont need to worry about
instability.
On a Separate Piece of Paper

Answer these 3 questions:

1. What is something new that you learned
about weather forecasting today?
2. What is your favorite weather phenomenon?
3. What are you still confused on and/or want to
learn more about regarding weather
forecasting?