Certainty
For statistical certainty, see Probability. For the lm, see
Certainty (lm).
Certain redirects here. For the French footballer, see
Franois Certain.
Certainty is perfect knowledge that has total security
from error, or the mental state of being without doubt.
Objectively dened, certainty is total continuity and va-
lidity of all foundational inquiry, to the highest degree of
precision. Something is certain only if no skepticism can
occur. Philosophy (at least, historical Cartesian philoso-
phy) seeks this state.
It is widely held that certainty about the real world is
a failed historical enterprise (that is, beyond deductive
truths, tautology, etc.).[1] This is in large part due to the
power of David Hume's problem of induction. Physicist 1.3 Ibn-Rushd - Averroes
Carlo Rovelli adds that certainty, in real life, is useless
or often damaging (the idea is that total security from Main article: Ibn Rushd
error is impossible in practice, and a complete lack of
doubt is undesirable).[2]
1 History
1.1 Pyrrho ancient Greece
Main article: Pyrrho
Pyrrho is credited as being the rst Skeptic philosopher.
The main principle of Pyrrhos thought is expressed by
the word acatalepsia, which denotes the ability to with-
hold assent from doctrines regarding the truth of things
in their own nature; against every statement its contradic-
tion may be advanced with equal justication. Secondly,
it is necessary in view of this fact to preserve an attitude
of intellectual suspense, or, as Timon expressed it, no as-
sertion can be known to be better than another.
1.2 Al-Ghazali Islamic theologian
Main article: Al-Ghazali
Al-Ghazali was a professor of philosophy in the 11th cen-
tury. His book titled The Incoherence of the Philoso-
phers marks a major turn in Islamic epistemology, as
Ghazali eectively discovered philosophical skepticism
that would not be commonly seen in the West until
Averroes, Ren Descartes, George Berkeley and David
Hume. He described the necessity of proving the valid-
ity of reasonindependently from reason. He attempted
this and failed. The doubt that he introduced to his foun-
dation of knowledge could not be reconciled using phi-
losophy. Taking this very seriously, he resigned from
his post at the university, and suered serious psychoso-
matic illness. It was not until he became a religious su
that he found a solution to his philosophical problems,
which are based on Islamic religion; this encounter with
skepticism led Ghazali to embrace a form of theologi-
cal occasionalism, or the belief that all causal events and
interactions are not the product of material conjunctions
but rather the immediate and present will of God.
Averroes was a defender of Aristotelian philosophy
against Ash'ari theologians led by Al-Ghazali. Aver-
roes philosophy was considered controversial in Muslim
circles.[3] Averroes had a greater impact on Western Eu-
ropean circles and he has been described as the founding
father of secular thought in Western Europe.
1.4 Descartes 17th century
Descartes' Meditations on First Philosophy is a book in
which Descartes rst discards all belief in things which
are not absolutely certain, and then tries to establish what
can be known for sure. Although the phrase "Cogito, ergo
sum" is often attributed to Descartes Meditations on First
Philosophy, it is actually put forward in his Discourse on
Method. Due to the implications of inferring the conclu-
sion within the predicate, however, he changed the argu-
ment to I think, I exist"; this then became his rst cer-
tainty.
1.5 Ludwig Wittgenstein 20th century
On Certainty is a series of notes made by Ludwig Wittgen-
stein just prior to his death. The main theme of the work
is that context plays a role in epistemology. Wittgen-
stein asserts an anti-foundationalist message throughout
the work: that every claim can be doubted but certainty
is possible in a framework. The function [propositions]
1
2 4 QUOTES

serve in language is to serve as a kind of framework nitistic means. The main opponent was the intuitionist
within which empirical propositions can make sense.[4] school, led by L.E.J. Brouwer, which resolutely discarded
formalism as a meaningless game with symbols. The ght
was acrimonious. In 1920 Hilbert succeeded in having
2 Degrees of certainty Brouwer, whom he considered a threat to mathematics,
removed from the editorial board of Mathematische An-
nalen, the leading mathematical journal of the time.
See also: Inductive reasoning, Probability interpreta-
tions, and Philosophy of statistics Gdels incompleteness theorems, proved in 1931,
showed that essential aspects of Hilberts program could
not be attained. In Gdel's rst result he showed how
Physicist Lawrence M. Krauss suggests that identifying
to construct, for any suciently powerful and consistent
degrees of certainty is under-appreciated in various do-
nitely axiomatizable systemsuch as necessary to ax-
mains, including policy making and the understanding of
iomatize the elementary theory of arithmetica state-
science. This is because dierent goals require dier-
ment that can be shown to be true, but that does not fol-
ent degrees of certaintyand politicians are not always
low from the rules of the system. It thus became clear
aware of (or do not make it clear) how much certainty we
that the notion of mathematical truth can not be reduced
are working with.[5]
to a purely formal system as envisaged in Hilberts pro-
Rudolf Carnap viewed certainty as a matter of degree gram. In a next result Gdel showed that such a system
(degrees of certainty) which could be objectively mea- was not powerful enough for proving its own consistency,
sured, with degree one being certainty. Bayesian analy- let alone that a simpler system could do the job. This
sis derives degrees of certainty which are interpreted as a dealt a nal blow to the heart of Hilberts program, the
measure of subjective psychological belief. hope that consistency could be established by nitistic
Alternatively, one might use the legal degrees of cer- means (it was never made clear exactly what axioms were
tainty. These standards of evidence ascend as follows: the nitistic ones, but whatever axiomatic system was
no credible evidence, some credible evidence, a prepon- being referred to, it was a weaker system than the sys-
derance of evidence, clear and convincing evidence, be- tem whose consistency it was supposed to prove). Mean-
yond reasonable doubt, and beyond any shadow of a doubt while, the intuitionistic school had failed to attract adher-
(i.e. undoubtablerecognized as an impossible standard ents among working mathematicians, and oundered due
to meetwhich serves only to terminate the list). to the diculties of doing mathematics under the con-
straint of constructivism.
In a sense, the crisis has not been resolved, but faded
3 Foundational crisis of mathe- away: most mathematicians either do not work from ax-
iomatic systems, or if they do, do not doubt the con-
matics sistency of ZermeloFraenkel set theory, generally their
preferred axiomatic system. In most of mathematics as it
Main article: Foundations of mathematics Founda- is practiced, the various logical paradoxes never played a
tional crisis role anyway, and in those branches in which they do (such
as logic and category theory), they may be avoided.
The foundational crisis of mathematics was the early 20th
centurys term for the search for proper foundations of
mathematics. 4 Quotes
After several schools of the philosophy of mathematics Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but
ran into diculties one after the other in the 20th cen- certainty is absurd.
tury, the assumption that mathematics had any founda- Voltaire
tion that could be stated within mathematics itself began
to be heavily challenged.
One attempt after another to provide unassailable foun- In this world nothing can be said to be
dations for mathematics was found to suer from var- certain, except death and taxes.
ious paradoxes (such as Russells paradox) and to be Benjamin Franklin
inconsistent.
Various schools of thought were opposing each other.
The leading school was that of the formalist approach, There is no such thing as absolute cer-
of which David Hilbert was the foremost proponent, tainty, but there is assurance sucient for the
culminating in what is known as Hilberts program, purposes of human life.
which sought to ground mathematics on a small basis John Stuart Mill
of a formal system proved sound by metamathematical
 3

If you tried to doubt everything you would
not get as far as doubting anything. The game
of doubting itself presupposes certainty.
Ludwig Wittgenstein #115 from On Cer-
tainty
Reed, Baron. Certainty. Stanford Encyclopedia of
Philosophy.
The certainty of belief - article arguing that belief
requires certainty

5 See also
Uncertainty
Almost surely
Fideism
Gut feeling
Infallibility
Justied true belief
Neuroethological innate behavior, instinct
Pascals Wager
Pragmatism
Scientic consensus
Skeptical hypothesis
As contrary concepts
Fallibilism
Indeterminism
Multiverse

6 References
[1] Peat, F. David (2002). From Certainty to Uncertainty:
The Story of Science and Ideas in the Twentieth Century.
National Academies Press. ISBN 978-0-309-09620-1.

[2] edge.org

[3] Averros (Ibn Rushd) > By Individual Philosopher > Phi-

losophy. Philosophybasics.com. Retrieved 2012-10-13.

[4] Wittgenstein, Ludwig. On Certainty. SparkNotes.

[5] question center, SHAs cognitive tools. edge.com.

7 External links
Certitude. Catholic Encyclopedia. 1913.
certainty, The American Heritage Dictionary of the
English Language. Bartleby.com
certainty vs. doubt. About.com. Retrieved 2008-
02-23.
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