HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES

Hydrol. Process. 23, 3253 3260 (2009)

Published online 11 August 2009 in Wiley InterScience
(www.interscience.wiley.com) DOI: 10.1002/hyp.7401

El Nino
and prediction of anomalous monthly rainfalls
in Ecuador
Frederic Rossel and Eric Cadier*
Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement, IRD-Hydrologie, B.P. 5045, 34032 Montpellier cedex, France

Abstract:
The coastal regions of Northern Peru and Southern Ecuador are well known for their sensitivity to the El Nino/Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Abundant rainfall is generally related to hot weather in the eastern tropical Pacific and
to the weakened South Pacific trade winds, which allow the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) to migrate far to the
south and to convey warm moist air to the coastal area. A new monthly rainfall index series has been established using data
from a network of 75 rainfall stations in Ecuadors coastal region. Throughout the analysis, a distinction is made between a
dependent data set (19641982) used as a training period and an independent portion of the record (19831993) reserved
for validation. Multiple regression models are developed to predict monthly rainfall in the Guayaquil area, using as predictors
precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST), meridional and zonal wind in the eastern equatorial Pacific, with all predictions
being based on a one-month lead time. The resulting equations were used to predict rainfall anomalies in the independent data
set. There is considerable predictive power for the rainy months of the year, the best predictability being for the period from
March to May. The multiple linear correlations explain 6082% of the monthly precipitation variance. The north regions
pre-season rainfall is the most powerful predictor for the rainy season peak in Guayaquil, whereas the eastern equatorial Pacific
SST is the most powerful predictor for the end of the rainy season. Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

KEY WORDS El Nino; rainfall prediction; Ecuador

Accepted 1 October 2008

INTRODUCTION values ranging from as low as 750 mm in the south-

The coastal region of Ecuador is characterized by large
inter-annual climatic variations (Cadier and Pourrut,
1979). Dry-year periods are interrupted by years with
abundant rainfall and flooding. Such rainfall irregularity
is closely related to the conditions in the Pacific Ocean off
Ecuador and Peru. This section of ocean, where the cold
Humboldt Current meets the warm equatorial current, is
a key region of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation phe-
nomenon (Rasmusson and Carpenter, 1982). The impact
of climatic anomalies such as El Nino/Southern Oscilla-
tion (ENSO) is very important in the Ecuadorian coastal
area. Sea warming associated with the ENSO results in
precipitations and floods, which may cause considerable
material and human losses. This was the situation in
Ecuador and North Peru in the 1983 rainy season, which
caused the death of at least 600 people (CEPAL, 1983).
The situation recurred in 1998 with dramatic losses of
human lives and infrastructure. The low relief and poor
drainage of the coastal plains exacerbate the impact of
the flooding. It takes many years for the damage to be
repaired. The Guayas River basin covers 31,500 km2 ,
which represents only about 13% of Ecuadors total area,
but it contains 40% of its population. Throughout the
lower Guayas River basin, the mean annual rainfall shows
a decrease from north to south and from east to west, with
* Correspondence to: Eric Cadier, Institut de Recherche pour le
Developpement, IRD-Hydrologie, B.P. 5045, 34 032 Montpellier cedex,
France. E-mail: cadier@ird.fr
west to over 3000 mm in the northeast. The seasonal
distribution of rainfall and runoff is very irregular. How-
ever, a pronounced seasonal cycle can be observed with
over 75% of the annual rainfall falling between January
and April. Rainfall inter-annual variability is also very
high, with the coefficient of variation of annual rainfall
reaching as high as 040. This results in an extreme vari-
ability of river flows. The droughtflood ratio may reach
1100.
To reduce the consequences of extreme-climate situ-
ations for human life and economic activity, Ecuadors
government has implemented and is planning to imple-
ment several flood protection works on the lower Guayas
River (CEDEGE, 1995; Rossel et al., 1996). Monthly
and seasonal rainfall forecasts can be very helpful for
the operation of such regulation works. The objectives
of this paper are to study spatial distribution of the
ENSO influence on precipitation, to analyse the links
between the general atmospheric circulation and rain-
fall in the coastal region of Ecuador, to investigate
the possibility of predicting monthly rainfall and to
explore ways to use the predictions for operational pur-
poses. The results presented here focus on the rainfall
index for the Guayaquil area (#3 in Figure 1). This
area represents a large section of the lower Guayas
River basin, including Guayaquil, Ecuadors largest
city.

Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

3254 F. ROSSEL AND E. CADIER

95W 90W 85W 80W 80W 78W

5N Colombia
Pacific 058 12
Pacific ocean Ocean
6
Colombia
N K H 14
0 025 13 0
A
027
B 7 1
0 005 162
C 8
15
006
D Ecuador 9
11 2
18
O L I E 4 036
2S 2S
F 10 056037
G 3
5S 16
Altitude
Peru 072 185
17 5000 m
5
P M J 4S 2000 m

600 m
0
Nio 1+2
10S Peru 80W
Line of ridge

Figure 1. Left, sea surface sectors (A, B . . . P) matching SST (Ta, Tb . . . Tp) and wind indices (Xa, Xb . . . Xp; Ya, Yb . . . Yp). Right, rainfall areas
(1, 2 . . . 18) matching rainfall indices (P1, P2 . . . P18) and stations (dots); data from stations labelled with numbers is provided daily

DATA least 3 consecutive months where the monthly Nino 1C2

The data used for this study comprise rainfall records for
coastal Ecuador, and ship observations from the eastern
tropical Pacific (Figure 1). The available rainfall data
enable monthly rainfall indices to be calculated for the
30-year 19641993 period for 13 homogeneous zones
of the Ecuadorian coastal area (Rossel et al., 1995).
Compilation of the 19971998 data allows the last
very strong ENSO event to be included in order to
test the prediction-model performance. Ship observations
provide sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and zonal and
meridional wind components compiled by Da Silva et al.
(1995), with an original 1 1 spatial resolution. Seven
areas of 1 1 and nine of 5 5 near the Ecuador
coast are considered (Figure 1). The El Nino 1 C2 SST
index (010 S/8090 W) is also being used. For each
index, normalized departure was calculated, using, as
a reference, the average and standard deviation of the
19641993 period. The annual analysis was based on the
hydrological year of the Ecuadorian coastal area, which
starts in September. Thus, for example, the year 1965
corresponds to the 12-month period between 01/09/1964
and 31/08/1965.
Rossel (1997) reviews 20 classifications of ENSO
years. However, the ENSO years identified by these
various classifications do not always match. This is due
to the complexity of the phenomenon and to the different
criteria employed by the authors (Quinn et al., 1978,
1987; Rasmusson and Carpenter, 1983; Ropelewski and
Jones, 1987; Quinn, 1993). Bjerknes (1969) and Wyrtki
(1979) consider that the onset of an ENSO event is
featured by the arrival of warm waters off the Central
Americas coasts and especially northern South America.
The Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research (SCOR,
1983) defines ENSO as an SST anomaly with a general
extension to northern South America being equal to a
standard deviation or greater, for a period of several
months to over 1 year. According to such definitions,
Rossel (1997) defines an ENSO event as a sequence of at
SST index is above 23 C and exhibits a positive anomaly
equal to 1 C or greater. Over the 19641993 period,
eight of such sequences match this definition (Figure 2).
Such episodes correspond to the following hydrological
years: 1965, 1969, 1972, 1973, 1976, 1983, 1987 and
1992.
ENSO-INFLUENCE LIMITS
Numerous investigations made over the last three decades
have demonstrated a close relationship between the inter-
annual variability of the large-scale circulation and rain-
fall anomalies in some tropical regions. Specifically,
ENSO effects are pervasive, but strong responses are
found only in limited sections of the tropics. Waylen
and Caviedes (1986), Ropelewski and Halpert (1987),
Ropelewski and Jones (1987), Rogers (1988), Aceituno
(1988, 1989), Tapley and Waylen (1990), and more
recently Bocanegra and Caicedo (1994), Aceituno and
Garreaud (1995), and Ropelewski and Halpert (1996)
indicated that northern South America is one of the
domains with a conspicuous ENSO signal in precipi-
tation. These studies show that, in northwestern South
America, ENSO generates an anomalous high rainfall
and runoff on the Pacific coast of North Peru, whereas it
generally initiates a rainfall deficit in the Caribbean area
of Colombia. In Ecuador, the boundary between these
two opposing effects was not clearly defined owing to a
lack of detailed studies and rainfall data (Caviedes 1973;
Ropelewski and Halpert 1996). In Ecuador, detailed stud-
ies were performed mainly for the 1983 exceptional event
(CEPAL 1983; Caviedes 1984; Nouvelot and Pourrut
1984).
In order to improve such analysis, we performed a
homogenization of the rainfall data series for Ecuadorian
coastal regions as well as for four inter-Andean valleys
and for one Amazon-slope sector. This made it possible
to create continuous series of rainfall indices for the

Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Hydrol. Process. 23, 3253 3260 (2009)
DOI: 10.1002/hyp

EL NINO
EN
Anomalies in C
2.5
1C
0
Anomalies
-2.5
1964
Figure 2. Absolute values and monthly SST anomalies of Nino block 1C2 along the 1964 1993 period. Straight line 1 C/23 C matches the threshold
above which anomalies and absolute SST values should last at least three consecutive months to confirm the El Nino presence. Periods noted EN
correspond to ENSO events
period 19641993 (Rossel et al., 1995). For the first
time over a 30-year period including several ENSO
events, such indices were used to analyse the ENSO
influence on annual rainfall in Ecuador. Rossel et al.
(1999) demonstrated that the ENSO event has a strong
positive influence on annual rainfall over most of the
Ecuadorian coastal regions and that the increase in mean
precipitation is greater than 40% (Figure 3). On the
other hand, we could not establish a direct link between
ENSO and the annual rainfall of the inter-Andean valleys
and Ecuadors Amazon slopes. The western flanks of
the Andes and the northern coastal regions constitute a
transition zone influenced by the ENSO, but the influence
is clearly less than that for the other coastal-region areas.
The boundary of the direct positive ENSO influence on
Ecuadors annual rainfall can therefore be identified as
corresponding to the relief of the Andes in the east and
as being located between Esmeraldas and San Lorenzo
in the northern Ecuadorian area at approximately latitude
1 N.
THE ANNUAL CYCLE OF CIRCULATION,
RAINFALL AND ENSO
Throughout the year, the north-eastern trade winds ema-
nating from the North Atlantic high sweep over the
Caribbean Sea into northern South America and across
the Central American land bridge into the eastern Pacific.
The southern trade winds in conjunction with the South
Pacific high follow the South American coast and the
Andes Mountain before moving to the west under the
influence of the Coriolis force. North and south trade
winds meet along the inter-tropical convergence zone
(ITCZ). The ITCZ is a band of maximum convergence,
convection, cloudiness and rainfall. Southwards, very dry
climatic conditions are established. Owing to such high
latitudinal climatic gradients, a small ITCZ displacement
results in a large modification of the local atmospheric
state. The seasonal shift in the latitude of the ITCZ fol-
lows the apparent movement of the sun. Over the boreal
winter, the north-eastern trade winds blow vigorously
across the Central American Isthmus, whereas the south-
ern trade winds are weak. The ITCZ is then at its south-
ernmost position near the equator in the eastern Pacific.
Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
AND PREDICTION OF MONTHLY RAINFALLS IN ECUADOR
3255
Monthly SST of Nio 1+2 block Absolute values
EN
EN EN 28.5
EN EN
Absolute values in C
EN EN
24.5
23C
20.5
16.5
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1993
Over the boreal summer months, the South Pacific high
migrates north-eastward, the South Pacific trade winds
become stronger and the ITCZ reaches its northernmost
position. When South Pacific trade winds go through the
equator, a divergence appears, with the formation of mon-
soon winds blowing to the Gulf of Panama. Along the
South Americas west coast, the cold Humboldt Current
(1418 C) sweeps northward while the trade winds pro-
mote a cold water upwelling. This cold current meets the
hot (>25 C) south equatorial current generally between
North Peru and the Galapagos Islands. As such water
currents are combined with trade winds, the latitude of
their convergence, called the equatorial front, follows the
ITCZ movement.
Ecuadors coastal regions, where a strong ENSO
influence exists, have a seasonal rainfall distribution
characterized by a single rainy period, with 7590% of
the rainfall occurring between December and May. The
rainy season starts around late November and ends in
June, with a peak between February and March. The
rainy season is separated from the next rainy season by
a 26-month dry period. This seasonal distribution of
rainfall in Ecuadors coastal regions is combined with the
seasonal latitudinal ITCZ migration and eastern tropical
Pacific SST variations. The north-southern seasonal ITCZ
displacement and SST variations bring to the area air
masses of different humidity and temperature. When the
ITCZ and the equatorial front are in their southernmost
position near the equator, Ecuadors coastal regions are
under the influence of warm moist air masses, which
come from the northwest, and which bring significant
rainfall and increase air temperature. This is the rainy
season. Inversely, the northernmost ITCZ displacement
and the equatorial front result in the presence of cooler
and dryer air masses, which come from the south-west
from upwelling regions. This is the dry season.
Along Ecuadors coast, ENSO events are featured
by an amplification of the southern ITCZ migration,
an SST increase and a weakening of the South Pacific
trade winds, choking off the upwelling, which supplies
cold water. All such oceanic and atmospheric changes
in conjunction with the ENSO result in an increase in
precipitation over the Ecuadors coastal regions. Figure 4
shows mean anomalies observed over the eight ENSO
Hydrol. Process. 23, 3253 3260 (2009)
DOI: 10.1002/hyp
3256 F. ROSSEL AND E. CADIER

Bogot

ntal
84w 81w 78w 75w

cide

0m

al

0m
150
a oc

entr
Significant Influence Limit Buenaventura

150
ra c
iller
Increase > 20 %

l
nta
dille
Cali

Cord

0m

ie
Or
150
Cor

a
3N 3N

ler
lrdi
Popayn

Co
Strong Influence Limit
Increase > 40 % Tumaco Colombia
0m Pasto According to

150
Esmeraldas Bocanegra and Caicedo 1994
and Aceituno and Garreaud 1995

0 Santo Quito 0
Domingo

Portoviejo
Ecuador

Guayaquil

1500m
Pacific Cuenca
3S Ocean 3S
Machala

Piura

Peru
6S 6S

Chiclayo
According to
Waylen and Caveides 1986 Brazil
and Tapley and Waylen 1990
Co
rdi

Trujillo
l
l l er

150
C or
aN

0 m central

ll e
di
C o r d il

ra
e gr

9S Chimbote 9S
a

lera
Bl

an
ca
150
0m

84w 81w 78w 75w

Figure 3. Boundary of the strong (>40%) and significant (>20%) ENSO influence on annual rainfalls in northwestern South America

events of the 19641993 period. Rainfall anomalies are
greatest in the eastern area of the Guayas River plain
and the southern coast near Peru. Anomalies decrease
towards the north, the Andes in the east and the Pacific
Ocean in the west. Over the ENSO events, a small shift
in the annual peak from February to March is generally
observed, with a major increase in rainfall over the
second part of the rainy period (Rossel, 1997). As we can
expect, air temperature is above the normal value. The
monthly wind values are weaker and related to a southerly
ITCZ displacement, which is greater than that for normal
years. Its southernmost mean position in the eight ENSO
events is near the equator line in February and March. On
the continent, the dominant winds, over the ENSO years
are blowing from west to east and move to the north and
south when approaching the relief of the Andes (Lugo,
1996). Anomalies of rainfall, SST and winds observed
on each of the eight ENSO events show that each event
has its own characteristics, reflecting the complexity of
the phenomenon. Each ENSO event is different, but
the range of values, nevertheless distinguish these from
non-ENSO years. Rainfall anomalies are linked to the
amplitude and synchronization of the SST and wind
anomalies. For example, the lack of excess rainfall in the
1969 Pacific Ocean warm event can be explained by the
strong South Pacific trade winds which maintained the
ITCZ to the north of the country. Inter-event variability
is important but not strong enough to make rainfall
prediction unachievable using SST and wind.
MONTHLY-RAINFALL PREDICTION
To explain the monthly rainfall index for the Guayaquil
area, we applied multiple regression techniques using

Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Hydrol. Process. 23, 3253 3260 (2009)
DOI: 10.1002/hyp
 AND PREDICTION OF MONTHLY RAINFALLS IN ECUADOR
EL NINO 3257

80W 78W

San Lorenzo Colombia

Esmeraldas

0 0
Santo
Quito
Domingo

Manta Chone

Portoviejo

Rainfall anomalies
1.0 < P < 1.2
2S 2S
0.8 < P < 1.0
Salinas
Guayaquil 0.5 < P < 0.8
0.0 < P < 0.5

?
Cuenca
Machala
SST Anomalies
1.0 < T < 1.25
0.75 < T < 1.0
4S Peru 0.5 < T < 0.75 4S

80W 78W

Figure 4. ENSO years average seasonal (DecemberMay) rainfall and SST anomalies (in standard deviation)

precipitation, SST, zonal and meridional wind com-
ponents in the eastern equatorial Pacific as predictor
variables. Such rainfall anomalies are predicted with
a 1-month lead time. The stepwise multiple regression
method was used to establish the parameters of the mul-
tiple regression models:
P D b0 C b1 X1 C b2 X2 C . . . bn Xn
where P is the predicted rainfall index, bi the regression
model coefficients, Xi the predictors and n the number
of predictors employed in the regression model.
We limited the number of predictors used with
each model to avoid complex models that did not
match the recognized circulation patterns. The regression
model coefficients were determined using the dependent
data set (19641982). Then, the independent data set
(19831993) was used to test the ability of such mod-
els to predict rainfall anomalies on a data set that was
not used to determine the regression model coefficients.
Results for the rainfall index P3 of the Guayaquil area
are shown below.
From February to May, the variance of P3 explained
by the regression models based on the dependent por-
tion of the record (19641982) ranges from 6273%
(Table I). Applying these models in a predictive mode to
the independent data set (19831993) explained 6082%

1 of the variance of the Guayaquil rainfall index P3 .
Other forecast-performance measurements are shown in
Table II. Note the low values of the forecast bias.
Figure 5 compares a scatter plot of the calculated versus
observed rainfall anomalies for the training and predic-
tion periods. The performance of such models is equiv-
alent to, or better than, the results obtained in other
areas of the tropics where the ENSO influence should
be weaker, as in Djakarta (Hastenrath, 1988), Brazils
Nordeste (Hastenrath, 1990a), northern South America
(Hastenrath, 1990b), south-eastern Australia (Simpson
et al., 1993), and north-eastern Africa (Awadallah and
Rousselle, 1999).

Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Hydrol. Process. 23, 3253 3260 (2009)
DOI: 10.1002/hyp
3258 F. ROSSEL AND E. CADIER

Table I. Monthly-rainfall prediction models for the Guayaquil area (standardized data). Pn , Tn , Yn : precipitation, STT and meridian
wind indices as described in Figure 1

Month Model Percentage of the variance (r 2 ) of rainfall explained by the models

19641982 1983-1993

February P3 D C075 P12 C 081 P9
008 62 60

March P3 D C088 P6
062 Ye C022 68 72
April P3 D C059 TNino1C2 C 028 P4
019 68 73
May P3 D C038 Ta C021 P1
033 73 82

February 3 March 3
Calculated

Calculated
2 2

1 1
Observed Observed
0 0
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
-1 -1
Training: r2 = 0.62 Training: r2 = 0.68
-2 Predicted: r2 = 0.60 -2 Predicted: r2 = 0.72

April May
Calculated

3 Calculated 3

2 2

1 1
Observed Observed
0 0
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
-1 -1
Training: r2 = 0.68 Training: r2 = 0.73
-2 Predicted: r2 = 0.73 -2 Predicted: r2 = 0.82

Figure 5. Scatter diagram of calculated versus observed Guayaquil-area rainfall from February to May. The dotted line indicates the 45-degree angle.
Unit is the standard deviation

Table II. Prediction model performance for the 19831993 vali-
dation period
Root-mean square error Absolute error
February 085
March 058
April 071
May 068
The most powerful predictors for February and March
are the rainfall indices P12 and P6 for the San Lorenzo
and Esmeraldas areas located in the northern area of the
coast (Figure 1). The fact that such northern-area rainfall
indices are good predictors of rainfall in the follow-
ing month in a southern area might be explained by the
meridian ITCZ displacement. During its migration from
the north to the south in the early rainy season, the ITCZ
initially affects Ecuadors northern coastal area. The most
powerful predictors for April and May are the previous-
month SST indices of the eastern tropical Pacific. This
could be explained by the stronger ENSO influence on
the rainfall over the last rainy-season months when El
Nino conditions are clearly settled (Rossel, 1997). Sec-
Bias ondary predictors, including previous-month indices of
rainfall or meridional wind, offer additional information
075
021 that significantly increases the model performance. Such
049 C025 improvements range from 1118% of the variance of the
061
001 P3 index explained by each regression model.
044
035
However, the multiple regression models do not permit
prediction of monthly rainfall with a satisfactory preci-
sion for the dry-season months (June to November) and
the first two rainy-season months (December, January).
Rainfall prediction for these months is, however, of low
interest, with the exception of January where the mean
rainfall reaches 19% of the annual mean. The low fore-
casting potential for these months is mainly due to the
absence of significant rainfall over the month preceding
the predicted one. As we observed for the other rainy-
season months, the preceding-month rainfall is a powerful
predictor. There exists a rainfall persistence related to the
duration of SST anomalies and wind seasonal variations
over the ENSO events that last several months.

Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Hydrol. Process. 23, 3253 3260 (2009)
DOI: 10.1002/hyp
 AND PREDICTION OF MONTHLY RAINFALLS IN ECUADOR
EL NINO 3259

March 3 1998 May 3

Calculated

Calculated
Real time Real time
1998
2 2

1 1
Observed Observed
0 0
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
-1 -1
Training: r2 = 0.69 Training: r2 = 0.68

-2 Predicted: r2 = 0.59 -2 Predicted: r2 = 0.79

Figure 6. Scatter diagram of calculated versus observed Guayaquil areas rainfall for March and May regarding models using only real-time data
available in 1998 (standardized data). Dotted line indicates the 45 degree angle

Table III. Operational prediction models using only real-time data available in 1998. Pn , Tn , Yn : precipitation, STT and meridian
wind indices as shown in Figure 1. (Standardized data)

Month Model Percentage of the variance (r 2 ) of rainfall explained by the models

19641982 1983-1993

March P3 D C070 P058 C 030 TNino1C2
005 69 59

April P3 D 066 TNino1C2 C 033 P162 C 011 65 76
May P3 D 043 TNino1C2 C 054 P006 C 007 68 79

OPERATIONAL PREDICTION AND THE 1998
ENSO EVENT
An important practical requirement for operational cli-
mate prediction is the availability of input-observations
on a quasi-real-time basis. In 1998, the data likely to
be obtained a few days after the end of the month
were limited to the rainfall observed in 11 coastal-region
stations (Figure 1) and the Nino 1C2 SST index. We
therefore had to develop new prediction models limiting
the input to this available real-time data. The parame-
ters of these operational regression models were again
determined using the dependent data set (19641982).
The independent data set (19831993) was used to test
the model performance. Additionally, the 1998 values are
plotted on the scatter plot to evaluate the model efficiency
for the last very strong ENSO event (Figure 6).
From March to May, the variance of the Guayaquil
rainfall index P3 explained by the operational regression
models concerning the dependent portion of the record
(19641982) ranges from 65 to 69% and from 59 to
79% on the independent validation data set (19831993)
(Table III). We note that the best predictors in the
operational prediction models are the same as for the
non-operational models. The most powerful predictor
for Guayaquils March rainfall index is the February
Esmeraldas station rainfall (P58 ). The most powerful
predictor for April and May is the El Nino 1C2 SST
index of the previous month. Figure 6 presents a scatter
plot of the predicted versus observed rainfall anomalies
for the training and forecast periods. We note that the
estimated values (874, 730 and 354 mm) for the 1998
spring months (March, April, May) are relatively close
to the actual values (913, 1040 and 433 mm), while
the means for such months are, respectively, 364, 259
and 94 mm. Our operational prediction models cannot
explain more than 35% of the variance of the observed
P3 for February. This is due to the lack of real-time
rainfall information from the San Lorenzo area, whose
January rainfall index P12 is the more powerful predictor
of Guayaquils February rainfall index.
CONCLUSIONS
Analysis of the oceanic and atmospheric circulation in
Ecuadors coastal area has provided a basis for the devel-
opment of prediction models for regional rainfall indices.
It was found that the best predictors are rainfalls and
SST indices for the previous month. The performance
of these models is relatively high for monthly precipi-
tation forecasts, when compared to the results obtained
in other parts of the world. They explain 6082% of
the inter-annual variance of the monthly precipitation in
the Guayaquil area from February to May. The best pre-
dictors for February and March rainfall are the previous
month rainfall indices for areas located in the northern
area of the coast. This might be combined with the merid-
ian ITCZ migration. The best predictors for April and
May rainfall are SST indices from the tropical Pacific
close to the Ecuador coast; reflecting the important influ-
ence of ENSO and SST anomalies at the end of the
rainy season. Using only real-time available data results
in a 520% decrease in the percentage of the variance
explained by the regression models. However, the per-
formance of the operational prediction models remains
high.
These regression models are not, however, the solution
to flood and drought problems in the Ecuadorian coastal

Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Hydrol. Process. 23, 3253 3260 (2009)
DOI: 10.1002/hyp
3260 F. ROSSEL AND E. CADIER
area. First, the models explain only part of the rain-
fall variance. Secondly, some of the rainfall anomalies
could not be estimated accurately. Finally, the duration
of the data set available for this study was only 30 years.
Using other variables may help to understand better the
mechanisms causing rainfall variability in the Ecuado-
rian coastal region. Such variables may be the latitude
of the ITCZ, the zonal and meridional components of
the upper atmosphere wind or the air humidity. Integrat-
ing these indices and using more sophisticated techniques
may improve the prediction model performance and help
perform forecasts for the entire rainy season with sev-
eral months lead time. However, the current results used
in conjunction with rainfall/streamflow models should
improve the effectiveness of water and agricultural man-
agement within Ecuadors coastal area.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors would like to thank Pavel Groisman and
Patrick Starks for their valuable reviews, which allowed
us to improve the quality and clarity of this paper.
We also wish to acknowledge the National Institute
of Meteorology and Hydrology of Ecuador (INAMHI),
which provided the rainfall data set and participated in
this study.
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Hydrol. Process. 23, 3253 3260 (2009)
DOI: 10.1002/hyp