7EL PASO
BUILDERS
www.elpasobuilders.com
By Samantha Sharf, Forbes Staff
www.forbes.com
n so many ways 2016 was an
I unprecedented, volatile and, for
some, excruciating 12 months. And the
housing market was not immune to the
years whims. At the start experts
anticipated a pick up in building activity,
instead builders are still not producing
enough homes. Meanwhile, home
prices appreciated beyond expectations
and mortgage rates toyed with record
lows before crossing 4% for the first
time in two years. "If the expectation
was that the market would transition
smoothly from deep red hot recovery to
normal--that certainly didnt happen,"
says Svenja Gudell, chief economist at
real estate data firm Zillow.
Nevertheless, Gudell and others
argue that on balance 2016 was a
pretty good year for housing. National
prices finally crossing the previous
2006 peak, mortgage rates remained
historically low and there were some
signs that Millennials, a generation
which some feared would never buy
homes, are beginning to enter the
market. Through it all the election
loomed large. In 2017 we'll see how
profound it's effects.
Here are eight things housing
experts expect to see in 2017:
1. Prices will continue to rise--but
more slowly.
Prices rose every month last year
(through October) with the largest gains
coming in the later half and a 5.61%
increase in national. Experts expect
prices will continue their climb, but
gains will slow. "We believe price
increases will hold steady despite
slowing sales growth, because
homebuyer demand is stronger now
than it was at the same time last year,
and because we foresee a small uptick
in homes for sale," notes Nela
Richardson, chief economist at real
estate brokerage Redfin.
"With the current high consumer
confidence numbers and low
unemployment rate, affordability trends
do not suggest an immediate reversal
in home price trends," noted David
Blitzer, chairman of the Index
Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices,
in the December release of the Case-
Shiller home price index.
"Nevertheless, home prices cannot rise
faster than incomes and inflation
indefinitely.
Redfin expects the median home
sale prices to gain 5.3% in 2017
compared to 2016, which would not be
a major change from the 5.5% year-
over-year gain expected to close out
this year. Zillow is forecasting the
median home value to rise 3.2% from
$192,500 between November 2016 to
November 2017. Zillow's home value
index rose 6.5% in the year ending
November 30th.
2. Affordability will worsen.
Wages are expected to grow in
America's big cities this year, but the
share of homes affordable to someone
earning the median income is not. This
trend, which has stymied many aspiring
to buy their first home over the past few
years, will be intensified by a continued
shortage in low- to moderate-priced
inventory and rising mortgage rates.
"The irony of the modern housing
market is that the places where we are
seeing wage growth are places where
people can't live because they are too
un-affordable. There is a mismatch,"
says Nela Richardson, chief economist
at real estate brokerage Redfin.
A decade ago a mismatch like this
would not have been so apparent
because buyers could get subprime
loans, but now high credit is a
requirement. The percent of new
listings in the lowest price tier of the
market has declined nearly every
month in the last five years. Experts
agree that even if builders are more
active this year, they are unlikely to
significantly add to the starter home
stock in 2017.
3. Mortgage rates will be volatile.
The two major political events of
2016 set mortgage rates moving in
opposite directions. In June, the British
vote to exit the European Union put
rates near a record low. In November,
the U.S. election of Donald Trump had
the opposite effect, sending rates
above 4% for the first time in two years.
By historic standards rates are still low.
In 2017 experts expect movement, but
differ on where for the 30-year fixed
rate will land. Estimates out there range
from between 3.75% and 4.6%--not so
far from where it is today.
"Mortgage rates going up is a bit of
euphoria and optimism over [Trump's]
promise to lower taxes, increase
infrastructure spending and drive 4%
econ growth," says Richardson. "As
more details materialize and we get a
realistic assessment, we will see rates
bump around." Notes Gudell: "If you
squint at line you will see nice upward
trend, but it will happen at a volatile
pace."
In December the Federal Reserve
bumped short term interest rates o
between 0.50% and 0.75%, the second
hike in a decade. The 25 basis point
move left rates low by historic
standards and on did not have a huge
impact on mortgage rates. However,
the Fed's policy makers indicated they
anticipate three hikes in 2017, which
could have a larger effect. That's up
from the two officials projected before
Donald Trump was elected. That said,
A S S O C I AT I O N O F
National, State & Local
Building Industry News
2017: Issue 1
HOUSING 2017:
Eight Predictions From The Experts
Fed projections can be taken with a
grain of salt: they also originally thought
they would hike three times in 2016.
4. Credit availability will improve--
maybe.
By and large early Trump
administration priorities are not
expected to deal directly with housing.
However, the president-elect and his
team have made it clear that they hope
to roll back much of the post-crisis
financial regulation laid out in the Dodd-
Frank Act. In theory, this could open up
banks to lend more freely to wide-range
of would be buyers. Though not
everyone is convinced this type of
lending is the direction banks would go
with any new found freedom.
Meanwhile, there is speculation that
Trump would return government-
controlled mortgage companies Fannie
Mae and Freddie Mac to private
control. Investors have cheered the
possibility, but some housing
economists worry such a move would
further restrict who could get credit to
buy a home.
5. Supply will improve but remain
short.
Declining inventory was without a
doubt the defining feature of the
housing market in 2016. It led to price
appreciation, as well as a hyper fast
market for buyers and discouraged
would-be-sellers who feared entering
the buying fray. A complete turnaround
is unlikely in 2017, but there are some
signs the coming year could see a
small bump in housing supply--at least
on the new home front.
Homebuilder sentiment picked up late
last year, as many expect Trump to be
a friend to the industry. Meanwhile,
strong demand should also encourage
building. "Controlling for the number of
households in the U.S., housing starts
are still only 55% of the 50-year
average," wrote Trulia Chief Economist
Ralph McLaughlin. "The historical view
looks like theres also more room for
housing starts to grow." Construction,
however, is unlikely to improve the
affordability picture because there is a
growing premium for new homes and
most building in recent years has been
on the high-end, since builders feel
they can get a better return there.
When it comes to existing homes a
phenomenon Richardson calls "rate
lock" may constrain inventory.
Homeowners who locked in a mortgage
below 4% are likely to stay in low
priced homes rather than upgrade, a
pattern that last emerged when rates
briefly rose in 2013.
6. More Millennials will become
homeowners--and renters.
According to Zillow half of all buyers
are under age 36. Not every economist
agrees with this assessment, however
it is clear that Millennials will continue
to make up a large and growing portion
of the buyer pool. Of course much of
this is due to the fact that Millennials--
adults born after 1980--are now the
largest adult generation and make up
the greatest percentage of the
workforce. Redfin expects Millennial
homebuyers will move from the coasts
to "inland markets" where starter
homes are more affordable.
7. Competition will grow fiercer.
In 2017 sellers will maintain the edge
over buyers as demand is expected to
increase. In 2016 the typical homes
stayed on the market for just 52 days,
about a week faster than in 2015 and
the fastest year since Redfin began
measuring in 2009. The brokerage
expects 2017 to be even faster.
8. Political uncertainty will be
replaced with policy uncertainty.
Experts agree that three of President-
Elect Donald Trump's policy priorities
could meaningfully impact the housing
market: his pledges to spend more on
infrastructure, to cut taxes and to crack
down on immigration. The consensus is
that in the very short term any moves in
these three ares could have a neutral-
to-positive impact on the housing
market. Over the longer term, however,
opinions vary widely.
2 Builders Outlook 2017 Issue 1

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2017 Issue 1
Presidents
Message
Don
Rassette
President,
El Paso Association
of Builders
I would like to wish everyone a
Happy New Year and hopefully a
prosperous 2017. I am honored to
be your El Paso Association of
Builders President for this year,
especially as we celebrate our 70th
anniversary as an association.
With the start of the year our
attention needs to be on this year's
legislative session. What is
presented and passed will affect our
industry for years. As I stated in my
acceptance speech, studies have
shown we cannot predict the future
but we can prepare for it. If you
haven't already planned on
attending "Rally Day" with us on
February 22nd I challenge you to
re-evaluate and get involved.
Participate, be there! As the Navy
says, we need carriers, not cruisers,
within the membership.
On the topic of legislation locally,
this is an election year in El Paso.
Builders Outlook
New year begins with many new changes in the works
Already within our Board of
Directors we have tripled our
donations to our BuildPAC account.
Our goal is to interview, endorse
and contribute to candidates who
support our industry. If you haven't
participated yet I challenge you to
re-evaluate and get involved.
My personal goals for the
association in 2O17 include the
following:
First increase, stabilize and retain
membership. A personal challenge
to all builders is to have their
partner base as members. This
increase will only add to our
associations clout within the
community and at the state level.
There is no down side to this only
positives. We will be having a
membership drive soon to
accomplish this goal. A working
committee has already met and
proposed several ideas such as a
member ambassadors assigned to
new members, a membership kit for
all new members, etc. The goal is to
have 90% of all homes built in "El
Paso" to be built by builder
members.
Second, change our Bylaws to
reflect, create and offer more
opportunities for Associate
Members. I requested of Brad Roe,
to review the Bylaws. Brad did not
waiver, responded quickly and
presented verbiage on allowing
Associates to be placed on the
ladder, in other words run for
President. Both proposed areas
were accepted and our bylaws have
been changed, so that Associate
Members can be on the ladder.
Third be influential in the political
scene. As above we showcase on
"Rally Day" (State level) and
BuildPAC (local level) for local
elections.
3
Fourth to recognize excellence
within our local industry. At the state
level with TAB this is validated by
the winners of the "Star Award's."
Our best of will use the TAB Star
awards as a guide. Categories,
judging and timelines have been
penciled out. Projected planning will
be presented for discussion at our
February 8th Board meeting.
Finally to have more EPAB
educational courses, which would
be a direct benefit to our members.
Patrick Tuttle, as an Associate
member, has started and will be
working to achieve this as a defined
benefit. With everyone's help the
above goals will make our
association better and everyone
wins.
4 Builders Outlook 2017 Issue 1

Executives
Message
Ray Adauto,
Executive
Vice President
EPAB
Attending an International Builders
Show (IBS) is daunting, exhausting as it
is exhilarating. Traveling from El Paso to
Florida is just exhausting. Dont get me
wrong the flights were fine even though
packed like sardines. More on this down
the column. The Show was held in
Orlando and is scheduled back there in
2018. The Orange County Convention
Center is a huge multi-building facility that
is better suited for smaller conventions
than the super huge IBS. In addition to
the actual exhibits there are meetings
going on for all the states as the National
Association of Home Builders (NAHB)
holds winter meetings in conjunction with
IBS:Show provides window into future
the IBS. Also note that the Kitchen and
Bath Association has incorporated itself
into the IBS and frankly that makes
sense. In one swoop you can see the
latest in home building techniques and
products as well as those fabulous new
bathrooms and kitchens. Unfortunately
for the El Paso Association of Builders not
many attended this year. A lot of it has to
do with distance and costs of travel. I
was fortunate to be with the Metro Homes
group and I know the EPAB NAHB
Directors were there as well, Bobby
Bowling IV and Demetrio Jimenez.
Fernando Torres joined me and Margaret
on the flight to Orlando and spent time at
the show together.
As big as the show is there are some
little things that attracted me more than
the grandiose items. That included a
simple adaptable electrical socket plate
that uses a simple connection to add LED
lights as a type of simple night light; the
appliance industry proclaiming black
Stainless as the newest greatest
covering for refrigerators and
dishwashers. These two things really
caught my eye but there were other
things that also intrigued me. VR, or
virtual reality meant a whole different
thing when I was growing up as we
looked at a red and blue lens to get 3D
effects. Well today you can draw your
concept with new apps and then
showcase that view to your customer.
They walk through the house before you
even lay down the foundation, modify or
adjust so that when youve completed the
project its what your customer wanted.
New colors, new textures and new
widgets. If youve never been to an IBS
you owe it to yourself to see.
The housing report from NAHB was a
little more telling as the NAHB Chief
Economist gave a report on the prospects
for 2017 and beyond. Findings? Home
size is coming down, mostly because of
costs. Mortgage rates will escalate over
the next few years making mortgages
higher. Trending is the future of home
buyers as the Baby Boomers retire or
expire the Gen Xers are in the buying
time now. But watch out as Millennials
come into their own and start wanting
their own homes. Right now that group is
more about trying to find themselves,
finishing college, getting a real job and
moving out of Mom and Dads house for
privacy and to build their own wealth.
Home building has challenges mostly in
labor and regulations. There was a sense
of optimism with the new Trump
administration and talk about reforming
regulatory impediments to housing.
The future looks bright as people
continue to want to own rather than rent.
El Paso has concerns with labor and
lumber costs. NAFTA is a three way street
when it comes to building supplies, as
Canada continues to export lumber to the
US and the US exports to.China.
Thats right, China. Is the Trump
administration going to look at
domesticating that segment of the lumber
market? Time will tell, but overall the new
home construction business looks bullish
on many fronts.

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2017 Issue 1
National
Builder News
New Home Sales Post
Highest Yearly Total
Since 2007
n Sales of newly built, single-family
homes rose 12.2 percent in 2016 to
563,000 units, the highest annual rate
since 2007, according to newly released
data by the U.S. Department of Housing
and Urban Development and the U.S.
Census Bureau. New home sales fell 10.4
percent in December 2016 to a seasonally
adjusted annual rate of 536,000 units.
We are encouraged by the growth in
the housing sector last year, and by the
fact that builders increased inventory by 10
percent in anticipation of future business,
said Robert Dietz, chief economist of the
National Association of Home Builders
(NAHB). NAHBs forecast calls for
continued upward momentum this year,
with housing starts expected to rise 10
percent over the course of 2017.
To ensure sales continue to move
forward in 2017, builders need to price
their homes competitively, especially given
that mortgage interest rates are expected
to rise this year, said NAHB Chairman
Granger MacDonald, a home builder and
developer from Kerrville, Texas.
The inventory of new home sales for
sale was 259,000 in December, which is a
5.8-month supply at the current sales
pace. The median sales price of new
houses sold was $322,500.
Regionally, new home sales increased
48.4 percent in the Northeast. Sales fell
1.3 percent in the West, 12.6 percent in the
South and 41 percent in the Midwest.
BUILDING
Builders Outlook
Remodeling Market
Optimism Remains
Positive
n The National Association of Home
Builders (NAHB) Remodeling Market
Index (RMI) posted a reading of 53 in the
fourth quarter of 2016, a decrease of four
points from the previous quarter, but on par
with levels seen in the first half of 2016.
Remodeler confidence has held firm in
positive territory for 15 straight quarters.
An RMI above 50 indicates that more
remodelers report market activity is higher
(compared to the prior quarter) than report
it is lower. The overall RMI averages
ratings of current remodeling activity with
indicators of future remodeling activity.
Many remodelers are seeing
consumers commit to larger, long-term
home improvement projects, said 2017
NAHB Remodelers Chair Dan Bawden,
CAPS, GMB, CGR, CGP, a remodeler
from Houston. As Americans are seeing
wages and home values rise overall, it
gives them greater confidence to go ahead
and invest in their homes.
Returning to levels seen early last year,
the RMIs current market conditions index
dipped to 53, down three points from the
previous quarter. Among its components,
major additions and alterations waned one
point to 53, demand for smaller remodeling
projects decreased by four points to 52,
and the home maintenance and repair
component declined by five points to 54.
The index measuring future market
indicators reached 52, about the same
level as early 2016, but six points lower
than in the third quarter. Among its four
El Pa
aso
components, calls for bids and
appointments for proposals fell to 49 and
54, respectively, the backlog of remodeling
jobs dropped three points to 55, and the
amount of work committed declined five
points to 50.
At 53, the Remodeling Market Index is
consistent with NAHBs forecast that
remodeling market activity will continue to
grow over the next two years, but at a
more moderate annual rate of 1 to 2%,
said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz.
For the full RMI tables, please visit
www.nahb.org/rmi. For more information
about remodeling, visit
www.nahb.org/remodel.
Nationwide Housing
Production Up 11.3
Percent
n A surge in multifamily production
resulted in overall nationwide housing
starts rising 11.3 percent to a seasonally
adjusted annual rate of 1.23 million units,
according to newly released data from the
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban
Development and the U.S. Census
Bureau. Single-family starts dropped 4
percent to a seasonally adjusted annual
rate of 795,000 units.
Despite the slight dip in single-family
production, Decembers rate is still the
fourth highest single-family pace since the
Great Recession, and single-family starts
also posted solid gains for the year, said
Granger MacDonald, chairman of the
National Association of Home Builders
(NAHB) and a home builder and developer
from Kerrville, Texas. Builders remain
SINCE 1950
5
confident and we expect further growth in
the single-family market in the year
ahead.
This report represents firm growth for
housing in 2016, as single-family starts
rose 9 percent and multifamily production
was down slightly, said NAHB Chief
Economist Robert Dietz. We expect that
2017 will be another year of gradual,
steady improvement in the housing market.
Multifamily starts have been volatile in
recent months, but should level off as
supply meets demand. Meanwhile, single-
family production continues to gain
momentum but is limited by supply-side
headwinds.
Multifamily production jumped 57
percent to 431,000 units in December.
However, the monthly data for apartment
production has exhibited strong volatility
since August.
Regionally in December, combined
single- and multifamily housing production
rose 31.2 percent in the Midwest, 23.5
percent in the West and 18.5 percent in
the Northeast. The South posted a loss of
1.4 percent.
Overall permit issuance edged 0.2 percent
lower in December to 1.21 million units.
Single-family permits rose 4.7 percent to
817,000 units, which was the highest level
in 2016. Meanwhile, multifamily permits fell
9 percent to 393,000 units.
Regionally, permits rose 3.3 percent in
the West, 2.7 percent in the Northeast and
0.5 percent in the Midwest. The South
registered a decline of 2.9 percent.
6 Builders Outlook
whats in
vogue
The Decorating Trends to Look for in 2017
by Monique Valeris
vogue.com
When it comes to home dcor, 2016 was the year
of everything from woven wall hangings to
Scandinavian-inspired interiors. And as the year
winds down, soon enough your thoughts will most
likely wander to a home refresh. So its worth
exploring the top decorating trends that will likely
be on repeat in homes across the countryand
possibly in your own abode.
We checked in with three interior designers
Martyn Lawrence-Bullard, Young Huh, and Beth
Diana Smithfor their 2017 decorating forecast
and some easy pointers on how to make them
your own. These trends are chic, inspiring, and
(fortunately) dont require a complete room
overhaul.
Green
According to celebrity interior designer Martyn
Lawrence-Bullard, who counts Kendall Jenner
among his list of clients, green is strong again.
From lime green to emerald, the hue works
throughout the homewhether its as a wall color
or a room-filling rug. If youre not too keen on the
idea of using green in large doses, Lawrence-
Bullard has a suggestion: Add really fun emerald
glasses to your regular white plates and suddenly
youve got that up-to-the minute look.
Tropical Prints
Its no secret that interior design takes cues from
the runways, and this year, weve seen the likes of
Marc Jacobs, Prada, and Emanuel Ungaro
experiment with all things tropical. The print will
continue to appear in wallpaper and designer
fabrics, according to Lawrence-Bullard. But dont
worry if such in-your-face prints are out of
character for you. He suggests throw pillows
boasting the trendy pattern: Always buy a plain
sofa and change it up with new pillows, Lawrence-
Bullard advises. Its just like buying a great piece
of classic clothing. You can certainly refresh it with
a new bag and shoes.
Texture
Weaving texture into an interior makes it more
inviting and the idea of mixing fabrics and materials
will be on the rise. Texture is really important,
says Lawrence-Bullard. We are seeing more and
more texture in every form, from brushed brass
tables to light fixtures to fabrics and wallpapers. A
quick way to test the trend: Drape a nubby wool
throw over a leather chair or mix fabrics used for
decorative pillows.
Marble and Brass Combinations
Young Huh, who was named one of Vogues five
young interior designers on the rise in 2015,
promises marble and brass will continue to
dominate in 2017. Were going to see this trend in
2017 Issue 1
both kitchens and baths, Huh explains. Its that
combination of something very natural and clean,
like white marble, and something industrial, hard,
and a little bit glamorous with the brass.
Muted Colors
Does the thought of bold colors anywhere in your
home make you feel a tinge of anxiety? Dont
fretits all about neutrals in the year ahead.
Whites, beiges, pale grays, camel, and blush pink
are super on-trend, Huh says.
Geometrics
Your goal should always be to create a home that
feels curated, and an easy way to accomplish this
is through pattern. Well see inventive geometrics
that speak to ancient cultures, whether it is African
or Asian patterns, but theyll be modernized, Huh
says. Think simple lines, geometric designs, and
triangles, Huh explains.
Quirky Lighting
Think of lighting as an
accessory for your home
its the perfect way to show
off your unique design
sensibility. A quirky lighting
fixture looks great in a
dining room, Huh says.
Its a great space to go for
it and do something unusual. Also consider
sprucing up your bedside lamps with something
truly memorable.
Artisan-Crafted Furniture
For New Jerseybased interior designer Beth
Diana Smith, the new year will include an
emphasis on uniquely crafted furniture. People will
be going back to furniture that is more of an
investmentfurniture that is very well-made,
Smith says. She recommends antique shopping for
pieces that will add character to your home and
browsing sites like Chairish.
Gray
Gray was a prominent color in 2016 interiors and it
will continue to reign in 2017. We will see different
tones of gray, a lot of gray and white, and gray in
deeper colors, Smith says. Its the sort of color
that complements a full spectrum of shades, from
bold red to mellow ivory.
Bronze
Smith promises that 2017 will bring loads of
bronzea metal that warms up any space. Its a
lot more classic in a sense, she says, as it
complements a myriad of decorating styles. I like it
in lighting and accessories, whether it be vases,
lamps, or decorative bowls for the kitchen, Smith
says.
2017 Issue 1
Expert
Analysis
Elliot Eisenberg
Economic & Policy
Blog
Housing starts should
increase by about 7.5%, to
1.25 million. Single-family
starts will likely total
850,000, up from 760,000,
while multifamily starts
should hit 400,000, up
from 390,000. New and
existing home sales
should collectively rise by
about 3% and end the
year at 6.15 million, with
mortgage purchase
volume advancing by $100
billion and refinance
activity falling by about
$400 billion due to the rise
in mortgage rates.
Builders Outlook
Economic Forecast 2017: Like 2016 But Slightly Better
Entering 2017, the domestic
economic landscape is solid, and
while there is an increased likelihood
of volatility with President Trump in
the White House, the risks to the
forecast are slightly to the upside.
This is because the proposed
combination of personal and
corporate tax cuts, increases in
infrastructure and defense spending,
reduced regulatory burdens and the
likely repatriation of hundreds of
billions in overseas corporate cash
are all expected to boost economic
activity and inflation in 2017.
However, there are also definite
economic headwinds. It is highly
likely that Congress will reduce the
size of any tax cuts and spending
increases sought by President
Trump, blunting their impact. In
addition, legislation takes time to
pass and, after passage, there will be
lengthy lags before the money begins
to impact the economy. Also, the
already rising dollar will hurt
manufacturing activity by raising the
cost of exports. Lastly, any attempt
to slap tariffs on imports is fraught
with the risk of precipitating a trade
war, which has obvious negative
growth implications.
With all this uncertainty in mind, I
expect full-year 2017 GDP to come in
at 2.3%, slightly higher than the 1.9%
growth experienced last year and the
2% average rate of growth since the
end of the Great Recession.
Headline inflation looks to pick up
from roughly 1.5% to near 2% in
2017, while core inflation (which
excludes food and energy) will edge
up, but only slightly. Because of the
slow rise in inflation, the Federal
Reserve will have the luxury of time
to raise the federal funds rate from
where they are now, at 0.625% to, at
most, 1.375% by year end, with a
rate increase coming roughly every
three months and starting no earlier
than June.
Turning our attention to the labor
market, I expect net new monthly job
growth to average 160,000/month,
which, while down, from
188,000/month in 2016, is excellent
given that we are late in the business
cycle and there are relatively few
potential workers still on the
sidelines. Thus, the unemployment
rate will probably fall from 4.6% today
to 4.3% or possibly 4.2% by year
end. As the labor market tightens,
nominal wage growth should increase
further in 2017 with average annual
wage increases rising from 2.4% to
as much as 3%: a healthy rise.
Because of better GDP growth and
falling unemployment, 10-year
Treasuries will end 2017 at 2.70%,
7
and the rate on 30-year mortgages
will be 4.6% as the yield curve rises
and steepens due to faster rising
long-term rates. But, continued
easing of credit conditions and rising
consumer spending due to continued
good employment and wage growth
will keep the economy and housing
market on track.
Housing starts should increase by
about 7.5%, to 1.25 million. Single-
family starts will likely total 850,000,
up from 760,000, while multifamily
starts should hit 400,000, up from
390,000. New and existing home
sales should collectively rise by about
3% and end the year at 6.15 million,
with mortgage purchase volume
advancing by $100 billion and
refinance activity falling by about
$400 billion due to the rise in
mortgage rates. Housing inventories
will, regrettably, remain unchanged,
and combined with limited new home
building, home prices will rise by 5%.
Lastly, I put the chances of a
recession in 2017 at a low 15% to
20%.
Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is President of
GraphsandLaughs, LLC and can be reached at
Elliot@graphsandlaughs.net. His daily 70
word economics and policy blog can be seen
at www.econ70.com.
 Builders Outlook International
On the Scene Builders Show
2017 Interational BuildersShow provides fun, sun and education
The 2017 International Builders
Show and National Association of
Home Builders (NAHB) meeting were
held in Orlando, Florida in January.
The NAHB moved the IBS to Orlando
this year and next to the east coast.
Orlando is home to the largest group
of movie themed parks and other
attractions that add to the value of the
event according to NAHB.
Education and business meetings for
NAHB started on the weekend before
the show opened and our
representative Bobby Bowling IV and
Demetrio Jimenez reported a good
turnout. Our NAHB board meets at
the IBS every year and this year we
were able to accomplish some
important things there, Bowling told
the Outlook. This gathering is also
when we installed our latest Texas
builder as Chairman of the NAHB as
Grainger McDonald took the helm.
Its our feeling that having him there
gives Texas and in particular El Paso
leverage in being recognized on the
national scene, he continued.
The NAHB Annual Membership
meeting had some items that were of
interest including an economic outlook
presented by the Chief Economist from
NAHB. In that report two things stuck
out for us, first and foremost is that
new home construction has not made
up the serious losses encountered
during the Great Recession; and
secondly that studies are showing
regulations cause about 25% of the
cost of new home. That is one of the
areas that the NAHB is hopeful will be
helped by the Trump Administration as
they review and hopefully do away
with regulations that are ineffective,
outdated or impede construction.
Speaking of President Trump it was
also revealed that he was the only
Presidential candidate to actually
appear in front of the membership at
the last NAHB meeting. The NAHB is
in contact with the Administration on
issues important to housing.
In other news from the meeting
Barbara Corcoran of Shark Tank fame
was the featured speaker. Her
relationship with President Trump isnt hammered on the home.
as rosy she told the crowd. I have
known Mr. Trump for a very long time
and not all of it has been good, she
said before breaking into a rather non-
friendly rant on what she meant.
Corcoran, who is credited with starting
a billion dollar real estate
conglomerate with a $1000 loan from
her boyfriend is successful in many
areas. She told the audience that
Shark Tank is a terrific avenue for her
business but it was hard work and
determination that made her.
Corcoran took questions from the
audience after her talk.
The fun part of the IBS is looking at
the hundreds of displays and product
demonstrations on the show floor.
This year the IBS didnt disappoint as
your reporter found items both big and
small that will make builders and
suppliers happy. Virtual reality is a big
buzz word for builders as the idea of
showing clients a tour of a plan moves
into the word of 3D. Many companies
now offer software and programs that
can take a potential customer into a
home that is just a concept, move
around in it, and see if that is what
they want all before a sing nail is
the Orange County Convention Center
Other items included new and
dramatic colors and textures of wall
coverings, flooring, and tiles. Metallic
is the newest color schemes including
new combinations of bronze, gold, and
copper shaded plastics and paint. In
the appliance world the new buzz is
black stainless a darker variant of
traditional stainless steel that is
smudge resistant. Delta faucets had a
huge display with their products in all
kinds of colors and shapes. Whirlpool
demonstrated their version of black
stainless to the thousands in
attendance.
It wasnt all big companies either as
some smaller manufacturers or
suppliers tried to make an impression
on the visitors. Entire delegations
from countries like China, Korea and
others had multiple displays and
products on display. The European
contingent showcased with such items
as appliances, cabinetry and glass.
Canada showed off its wood and wood
products, while innovators brought in
their new ideas and concepts to the
show.
The distances between halls at the
show was a big sore spot for many as
isnt linked together like the Las Vegas
CC. A lot of walking for attendees
regardless of where the showcase is
at but if you are intending to go to the
2018 IBS begin your training regimen
now.
JOIN US AT Make your pans now to
attend Rally Day 2017.

THE Join your friends and

CAPITOL colleagues at this important

event as we make an imact

ON with our elected officials in

Austin.

FEBRUARY Rooms and other

21-22 IN accomodations are getting

booked quickly, please call

AUSTIN. EPAB now to reserve your

space.

778-5387
Take a look at this quick video to get a sample of
what it is about. Rally Day 2017.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UmqsOisqAkM
&feature=youtu.be
10
Lending Fannie Mae will back Blackstone's
rental homes debt
Mortgage giant Fannie Mae is getting
into the single-family rental business in a
big way.
The government-backed agency said it
is going into business with private equity
giant and major housing player
Blackstone by backing $1 billion in debt.
Blackstone's Invitation Homes filed for an
initial public offering this week, and the
Fannie Mae relationship was disclosed
afterward. Blackstone is looking to raise
$1.6 billion by selling shares to the
public.
Fannie Mae, currently under
government conservatorship, will back
$1 billion in debt collateralized by rental
homes owned by Blackstone.
Invitation Homes currently has a
portfolio of about 50,000 single family
rental homes, most of which it purchased
during the foreclosure crisis. Invitation
Homes, in the filing, reported $9.7 billion
in property and $7.7 billion in debt. The
homes that will go into the Fannie Mae
are, according to sources, low risk, with
very low loan-to-value ratios. This first-of-
its-kind debt deal is something of a test
in what is a growing and maturing single-
family rental market.
Both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
have long been big players in the
multifamily apartment market. Following
the foreclosure crisis, when investors
bought thousands of distressed homes,
HERES TO 70 YEARS OF SERVICE!
6068 Gateway East (915) 782-2400 | 2290 Trawood Dr. (915) 782-2470 | 7015 N. Mesa St. (915) 782-2485
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Builders Outlook 2017 Issue 1
the single-family rental market grew and
now accounts for more than 50 percent
of the rental market nationally. This is
likely why Fannie Mae is testing this
market with the first deal.
"This transaction is a great opportunity
to continue to serve the growing single-
family rental market," according to a
statement from Fannie Mae. "Invitation
Homes is a strong partner with deep
experience managing a large volume of
single-family rental properties. This
transaction helps us gather data and test
the market to ensure we are delivering
the right solutions that meet the
increasing demand for single-family
rental housing across all demographics.
Fannie Mae is committed to continuously Some have already voiced concern properties will rise," wrote Andrew
finding better ways to meet the changing that the deal puts taxpayers on the hook Roalstad, senior analyst at TIS Group.
needs of families, whether that is through yet again, should the rental market end "We predict the increase in these type
rental options or homeownership." up in a "bubble." Rental demand is high of government-guaranteed securities will
In the deal, Invitation Homes is in a and rents are high currently, but grow exponentially in the coming four
first-loss position for the first 5 percent of homebuying demand is also strong and years, and the impact on the rental
any losses. After that, Fannie Mae and home sales have been rising steadily. property market will be extraordinary,"
Wells Fargo are in a risk-sharing There is still very short supply of listings, added Roalstad. "We suspect these are
partnership. The homes are all in which favors the rental market now, but the types of changes that the market is
geographically diverse areas, which that will not always be the case. This pricing in with its 'Trump Rally.' Shifting
sources say mitigates the risk, but the could also bring more investors into the corporate risk to taxpayers has been a
rental market does fluctuate, and rents rental fold, making financing easier, and profitable business over the past few
are particularly high now, as more rental potentially lowering rents. decades, and throughout history. We
stock comes on line. In the IPO filing, the "Blackstone is a market-leader when it expect we will see more of this shift in
company noted that it would continue to comes to securitization innovation. Other the coming years."
buy more homes to turn around as corporate landlords will soon jump on
rentals. this bandwagon, and demand for rental
WE LOOK FORWARD TO FUTURE SUCCESS
WORKING TOGETHER!

Granger MacDonald Elected
2017 Issue 1
NAHB Chairman
Granger
MacDonald, a
Kerrville, Texas-
based builder and
developer with 40
years of
experience in the
home building
industry, was
elected as the
2017 chairman of the National
Association of Home Builders
(NAHB) during the association's
International Builders' Show in
Orlando, Fla. MacDonald is chairman
and CEO of the MacDonald
Companies, a diverse development,
construction, and property
management enterprise with nearly
50 neighborhoods completed and
managed throughout Texas.
"We look forward to working with
incoming Trump administration and
Democratic and Republican leaders
in the new Congress to promote
policies that will boost home
ownership and rental housing
opportunities for all Americans," said
MacDonald in a press release.
"Specifically, we will seek to reform
the regulatory process and ensure
any tax reform efforts protect vital
housing tax incentives that are
needed to keep the economy moving
forward. We will also urge Congress
to enact comprehensive housing
finance reform, with the federal
government acting as a backstop in
times of crisis, to protect the 30-year
mortgage and bring the flow of
private capital back into the
marketplace."
11
Builders Outlook
MacDonald has been active in the
NAHB leadership structure at the
local, state and national levels
throughout his career. A senor life
new h o m e s
director, he has served on the NAHB
Board of Directors for more than 30
years and is a member of the NAHB
for el paso...
Executive Board.
il y f o u n d h e re
He has also served as chairman on
several influential NAHB committees
eas
and councils, including the Federal
Government Affairs Committee, the
February 2017
FREE
State and Local Government Affairs
el paso
Committee, the Housing Credit
builders
Introducing
Group, the Multifamily Council and
BUILD-PAC, the political action
committee of NAHB. El Paso New
MacDonald was elected president
of the Texas Association of Builders
in 2010 and is a member of the Hill
Home Builders
Country Builders Association, the
Greater San Antonio Builders magazine & website
Association, and the Home Builders
Association of San Angelo.
Actively involved in his community,
information...
ves.com for more
Visit www.ElPasoMo
he has had years of experience
working with and serving on
Part of Homes of El Paso magazine
governmental commissions and
boards. He served on the
Mailed monthly to thousands of local homes
Kerrville/Kerr County Airport Board
and the City of Austin Planning
El Paso Airport distribution
Commission. He was also chairman
of the City of Austin Environmental Stand alone magazine each quarter
Board and president of the Upper
Guadalupe River Authority.
He and his wife, Kathy, reside in
Call Martha today for more
the Texas Hill Country. His partner in information at (915) 204-7017.
the MacDonald Companies is his
son, T. Justin MacDonald, also a
long-term member of NAHB.
Another Mesa Publishing Publication, serving El Paso Home
Buyers for 25 years. www.MesaPublishing.com
www.ElPasoNewHomeBuilders.com
12
Builders: How to be a better customer
Somewhere theres a long list of
expectations and improvements that
custom home builders wish their building
materials suppliers would make to the way
they do business. In a recent survey by
sister publication Professional Builder
about builders and architects sentiments
regarding their suppliers, many expressed
a yearning for a personal relationship with
suppliers that would help builders solve
problems. Also high on the roster of
desired traits: having suppliers who are
knowledgeable about the business of new-
home construction, and reps who listen to
builders and understand their issues before
they start selling. But what could builders
do to be better customers for their supplier
partners? In a white paper about ways to
build great and lasting vendor relationships,
Ron Lewis, president of RB Lewis &
Associates, a Chestertown, N.Y.-based
consultancy for the construction industry,
noted that builders and general contractors
sometimes perceive material suppliers with
contempt and blame them for poor
performance rather than embracing
suppliers as partners who add value. He
wrote that occasionally the roots of poor
supplier performance can be traced to
poor buyer performance, such as poorly
written purchase orders, last-minute
demands for materials, constantly changing
expedited orders, and claims that invoices
reflect incorrect prices, among other things.
Decades ago, supply houses primarily
perceived themselves as agents for the
manufacturers or their wholesale vendors.
But that business model started to change
as some builders grew into national and
multiregional companies, demanding terms
and practices that would make their
projects more efficient and cost-effective.
Also, suppliers looking to differentiate
themselves from their low pricedriven
competition sought to solve problems for
customers by specifying products and
services that could reduce waste and
rework. Today, more lumberyards and
building materials suppliers see their
company as an extension of their
customers home building operations. If I
were a builder, I would be constantly
soliciting ideas from my salesperson, says
Greg Brooks, president of Building Supply
Channel, in New Albany, Ind., and editor of
LBM Executive, a newsletter and blog
about matters concerning the building
materials supply channel. Some
salespeople are going to be very
knowledgeable about what they can do to
help you, Brooks points out. Other guys
are not going to have a clue, and there are
others who know what to do, but they think
you dont want to hear it from them.
So is it the suppliers duty to initiate
collaboration or is the builder responsible
for asking questions? Both parties have to
push each other, which calls for clear
communication and information sharing.
We need to know where do we add
value, says Van Isley, CEO of Professional
Builders Supply, in Morrisville, N.C. Tell us,
do you want our rep on the jobsite doing an
interior trim take-off after he does a walk
through on the doors, or do you not want
that? For the lumber take-off, is it going to
be handled by your folks or by our folks?
We have access to resources that can do
that cost estimating for you, but if youre
going to do it anyway, then theres no
reason to be redundant. Thats a cost that
we can take out of the equation and share
the savings.
Brooks adds that if builders solicit
suppliers for information about products
and methods that can help them work more
efficiently, two things will happen. First, the
builder will get good ideas because the
salesperson may be working with dozens
of clients and learning from them what is
and is not working in the field. Second,
there are a lot of salespeople who dont
Builders Outlook
routinely stay up to date with those
developments, but the fact that youre
asking is a clear message to them that that
is what they should be doing.
The best suppliers will almost always
have a regular meeting or a quarterly
meeting with the builder and say, OK, what
can we do betterbecause if I can save
you cycle time, eliminate waste, eliminate
mistakes or reviews, youre going to make
more money, Brooks says.
Price
Competitive pricing will always be a
factor because a builder isnt going to pay
10 percent more just because the builder
likes the supplier, says Mark Scherer, chief
operating officer of Scherer Bros. Lumber
Co., a third-generation supplier serving
Minnesota and western Wisconsin.
Everyone wants value, Scherer says. If
were streamlining the process for [the
builder] and they see the value they get,
then great. Otherwise [builders] will defer to
price. Price is always a factor, and we are
committed to that. Its a matter of how can
we be competitive and eliminate some of
the additional cost from the supply side.
However, builders with a habit of
hammering suppliers for price reductions
wont be endearing themselves to the
channel. Indeed, Keith Coleman observes
that his most profitable clients are those
who spend less time shopping price and
more time selling their houses and
additions. My favorites are the guys who
trust us from a price standpoint and arent
constantly shopping numbers and coming
back to us, asking if we can do better,
says Coleman, CEO and owner of
Hamilton Building Supply, in Hamilton, N.J.
Theres an understanding up front that
youre going to get a good number from us,
and were going to do whatever we need to
do for you.
Among the value-added extras included
with Hamilton Building Supplys numbers
are free deliveries, no order minimums,
and no charge for returns. Those services,
Coleman says, are among the tangible
benefits for builders that pay dividends
toward establishing trust and bringing some
relief from worrying about whether his
company is going to lose someones
business because his quote was a nickel
too high.
However, there are builders out there
who think they have to shop every quote
and get a firm price every 30 days, or
theyll secure 90-day pricing one time and
30-day pricing the next because they think
theyre smarter than the market. Isley says
that practice is not very productive. Hes
seen customers rotate from one supplier to
another, and suppliers eventually figure out
that doing business with that builder is cost
prohibitive. Yet his companys biggest
frustration is the customer who makes
apples-to-oranges comparison between his
quote and a competitors. The customer
isnt willing to dig into the details and see
that his company is bidding with top-of-the
line AdvanTech flooring as specd in the
plans while the competitor is quoting run-
of-the-mill -inch plywood. The builder
buys from the cheaper supplier and doesnt
realize theres a problem until the floor is
nailed down and the material is swelling
and cupping.
Once again, it comes down to who is
going to win the take-off, Isley says. Is it
the customer who sends the list [of
materials] to the supplier, or is it the
supplier? And if you give two suppliers a
set of plans, chances are the take-offs are
not going to be the same, so right out of
the gate youre not comparing apples to
apples. If the customer does it, and he
sends the list, is he taking time to compare
the lists to make sure that the spec is the
same and the quantities are the same? In
most cases, the builders are moving fast,
and theyre not willing to do that.
Preconstruction
Nothing destroys a construction schedule
faster than forgetting to order the windows,
the counters, or whatever. Consequently,
the project runs late because delivery is
pushed out. A supplier salespersons job is
to manage the flow of materials to the
jobsite, according to Brooks, so that person
knows that if a builder is framing today, the
project is going to need windows in a
certain number of weeks. When it comes to
scheduling, suppliers find it immensely
helpful when builders include them with the
subcontractors in a preconstruction
meeting.
One common scenario that could be
avoided if the supplier had an opportunity
to talk with the builders framing
subcontractor at a preconstruction meeting
involves misusing the sticks in a lumber
package. Even though the package has the
accurate quantity and lengths of 2x4s, the
framers may pull out the 16-foot lengths
and cut them down for where the 14
footers are needed. Eventually the crew
runs short of 16s and find the 14s when
they get to the bottom of the package, and
the builder has to order more lumber.
I would say it is unusual to see
[preconstruction meetings] happen
routinely, but it does happen when the
builder and supplier are working together
2017 Issue 1
for a long time and the supplier has had a
chance to learn what the builder wants and
where the usual breakdowns could occur,
Brooks says.
Several builders do invite Scherers
sales reps to preconstruction meetings,
and he wishes more customers would do
the same. For me, the most successful
customers and the easiest customers to
deal with are the ones that engage us in
the design process, Scherer says. If I can
be on the front end looking through the
plans as they are going through them, we
can make a lot of suggestions and
eliminate a lot of problems down the road,
but only if we are part of the process.
Scherers company typically participates
as the truss supplier and will attend
preconstruction meetings along with HVAC
subs, plumbers, framers, and electricians
to scrutinize a plan. Occasionally, Scherers
people catch something that could stop a
project for half a day or introduce a change
that will help the crew avoid reworks.
Thats just taking that whole definition of
communication to another level because
its anticipatory; its proactive, Scherer
says. I love it when my customers
communicate when they see a problem,
and we work through it. If we eliminate the
problem before it exists, thats huge. We
save the builder a lot of money, and it
saves us a lot of stress.
Customers who invite Hamilton Building
Supply reps to a preconstruction session
often receive valuable engineering or
logistics suggestions that can make
everyones life easier. For example,
Hamilton may make suggestions for
building materials staging on the jobsite,
ensuring that materials are close to where
they are actually going to be used, and
arrive on site when theyre needed.
Everything is about efficiency today,
Coleman says, and as long as you give us
an opportunity to comment, a lot of times
we can bring in additional efficiency.
Isley adds, Theres got to be give and
take on both sides, but it comes down to
collaboration. What are your problems, how
can we help you solve those problems, and
what do you need? What role can we play
that adds value and minimizes
distractions? Those are the kinds of things
that we are able to bring to the table. We
dont know the answer to those questions.
You know the answers. We can show you
what weve done for other people. We can
show you what we can do that we think will
be beneficial, but it has to fit your process.
2017 Issue 1 Builders Outlook 13
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Association
News & Events margaret1@elpasobuilders.com

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14 Builders Outlook 2017 Issue 1

Community
Outlook
The El Paso Association of Builders making a child happy. In our case we
(EPAB) members are generous to a have teamed up with the Junior
tee, and sometimes beyond. Such is Womens Club of El Paso, a group of
the case every time we have an professional women who volunteer for
installation and we ask attendees to the good of the community. The Club
bring a toy as a donation to needy is now 82 years old and continues to
children. This year the toy donations do outstanding community work.
were once again super generous. The We received this letter of thanks from
toys ran the gamut of dolls, stuffed the Junior Womens Club and felt that
animals, cars, trucks, blocks, and even we shoud share it with our members:
a painting set. The thing that we are
asked every year is who is this for?
Unfortunately the need in our
community, as in most others is bigger
than what can reasonably be taken
care of. That need is demonstrated
every year as many organizations run
toy drives all for the very good cause of

Congratulations on your 70th Anniversary.

We were here when you started back in




















ACME BRICK CO. 325 N. Americas Ave. El Paso, Texas 79907 915-859-9171
Brick * Stone * Pavers * Granite * Slate * Flooring * Glass Block


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Builders Outlook Issue 1 2017 El Paso Disposal
6046 Surety Dr. El Paso, TX 79905
915-778-5387 Fax: 915-772-3038
ExECuTiVE OFFiCERS
PRESiDENT
Don Rassette
ViCE PRESiDENT
TABSTATE DiRECTORS
Randy Bowling - Life Director
Sam Shallenberger
Edmundo Dena
772-7495
EdmundoDena
SECRETARY/TREASuRER NATiONAL DiRECTORS
SergioCuartas Bobby Bowling, iV
ASSOCiATES ViCEPRESiDENT Demetrio Jimenez
SamShallenberger Leslie Driggers Hoard -Alternate
ExECuTiVE ViCE PRESiDENT Antonio Cervantes - Alternate
Ray Adauto
PAST PRESiDENT Honorary Life Members
Carlos Villalobos Mark Dyer
Wayne Grinnell
COMMiTTEE CHAiRS Don Henderson
Membership Anna Gill
Ted Escobedo Brad Roe
Patrick Tuttle Rudy Guel

Finance Committee Past Presidents

Kathy Carrillo Committed to Serve
Henry Tinajero Edmundo Dena
Edgar Montiel
ADViSORYTOTHEBOARD Frank Torres
Jay Kerr, Firth, Johnston, Bunn & Kerr

For All Your Electrical Needs

Frank Arroyos
Greg Bowling
BOARDOFDiRECTORS Randy Bowling
Antonio Cervantes BiC Homes Bobby Bowling iv
Bret Thompson Foxworth Galbraith Doug Schwartz
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Residential Specialists
Fernando Torres Metro Homes
Henry Tinajero West Star Bank Robert Baeza
Jay Kerr Firth, Johnston,Bunn & Kerr Mark Dyer
Joe Bernal Employer Benefits Ep Kelly Sorenson

Tract Homes Custom Homes

John Chaney Passage Supply Rudy Guel
John Dorney Dorney Security Brad Roe
Kathy Carrillo Pioneer Bank Herschel Stringfield
Kathy Parry Hunt Companies Bob Bowling iii
Leti Navarette Bella Homes/Custom Dream Pat Woods
Linda Troncoso TRE & Associates
EPAB Mission Statement:
Leslie Driggers-Hoard Homes By Design
The El Paso Association of Builders is a federated professional
Robert Foster Southwest Land Dev. Services organization representing the home building industry,
Walter Lujan Dawco Builders committed to enhancing the quality of life in our community by
Edgar Garcia Bella Vista Custom Homes providing affordable homes of excellence and value.
Jason Cullers Cullers Homes The El Paso Association of Builders is a 501C(6) trade
Samira Gonzaelz icon Custom Homes organization.

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