LESSON 1

DEMOGRAPHY AND DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS

Demography is the study of the growth, structure, and movement of human populations. It focuses on
enumerations (censuses), which take stock of a population at a moment in time, and also flows of vital events
births, deaths, marriages, and migratory movements. These two sources furnish the basis for the statistical
underpinnings of this article.
GEORGE MAGNUS: These 5 Big Demographic Trends Are Shaping The World Right Now
The future of an economy is determined heavily by its evolving demographics.
Knowing how young or old a country's population will be is crucial for investors and businesses.
Many point to population growth in developing nations as a source of rising domestic demand. But there's a
lot more to be considered. For example, the Arab Spring was an extreme, but important reminder of what can
happen when you have a young and able workforce with little access to jobs.
With that in mind we drew on George Magnus' presentation to The Conference Board titled "The Age of
Ageing: Global demographics, destinies and coping mechanisms." In it, Magnus highlights five big
demographic trends shaping the world right now.

1. The ratio of children to older citizens is declining: The ratio of children to older citizens stands at about
3:1 but is declining. By around 2040, there will be more older citizens than children. By 2050, there will be
twice as many older citizens as there are
children. Some exceptions to this however are
China and Russia.
"The number of over-60s in the rich world is
predicted to rise by 2.5 times by 2050 to 418
million, but the trajectory starts to level off in
about 20 years time. Within this cohort, the
number of people aged over 80 will rise six
times to about a 120 million.
"In emerging and developing world, the number
of over 60s will grow by more than 7 times to over 1.5 billion by 2050, and behind this, you can see a 17-fold
increase in the expected population of those aged over 80, to about 262 million."

2. There has been a sea-change in the nature of illness to non-communicable diseases: One of the
consequences of rapid aging and rising longevity is the "sea change in the nature of illness and disease and
therefore scientific and pharmaceutical businesses," said Magnus. "I'm referring, of course, to what the World
Health Organization has called the invisible epidemic of non-communicable diseases, which is now
responsible globally for about 60% of deaths, and nearly half of the actual and effective life years due to
disability."
"By 2030, depression is expected to become the biggest single cause of disability affected life years, which is
a composite measure of years of life lost to premature death and disability. The arrows show a complete
turnaround in the principal burden of disease."

3. The speed of aging is rising rapidly in emerging economies: The time taken to double the share of those
over 60 years old from 7% to 14% of the
population took a long time in western
countries. But the emerging markets are aging
"at an astounding pace," according to George
Magnus.
In France it took over a century to cross this
milestone. And in most developed countries it
took about 40 - 80 years. In emerging markets,
however, the process is playing out in about 20

years with China taking the lead in speed. "It's this that gives that rise to the common mantra of 'growing old
before you get rich,'" said Magnus.
What this means is that emerging markets have far less time to build the financial infrastructure and social
security systems to deal with consequences of an aging and rising old age dependency.

4. Old age dependency ratio is rising rapidly in Japan, European countries, but at a slower pace in
Anglo Saxon economies: The rising dependence of those over 65 on the working age population is referred
to as the old age dependency ratio. This is a product of weak fertility and rising longevity.
The old age dependency ratio in countries like Germany, Japan, Italy, Spain is expected to rise rapidly. These
countries are characterized as the "hares" because of the rapid progression of old age dependency. The number
of workers per older citizen is expected to fall from about 3-5 today to about 1.5 by the mid-century mark.
Meanwhile, the Anglo-Saxon economies like Sweden and France are "tortoises" by comparison. Here the
support ratio will fall from 4-5 workers today, to about 2-2.5 by the mid-century. This is because of higher
fertility rates and a more open immigration policy..

The tortoises of the emerging markets have a support ratio of 10-20 workers per older citizen, and this is
expected to get to where developed countries are by mid-century. But in some countries in sub-Saharan
Africa, the pace of aging is much slower than say in Indonesia, Turkey and Brazil.
India is a "demographic darling" because one-third of its population is aged under 14, and its working age
population will grow in the next 20 years, to more than the existing stock of working age people in Western
Europe today.

5. It's getting harder to exploit demographic dividend: This is a phase that countries go through when child

dependency is falling and the working age population is expanding. But they're also in a phase just before old
age dependency starts to rise. Typically, this phase comes with stronger trends in income, savings, investment,
and technical progress. This is where where other emerging markets countries hope to be in the next few
decades.
Once the old age dependency ratio starts to rise, however, the demographic dividend can't be exploited and it
tends to drag on growth. The demographic dividend creates the opportunity to draw on these benefits, but
doesn't guarantee it. Exploiting your demographic dividend depends on four Is, according to Magnus better
institutions, investment climate, infrastructure, and innovation.
http://www.businessinsider.com/5-demographic-trends-shaping-the-world-2014-4

THE BASICS OF DEMOGRAPHIC POPULATION GROWTH DEPEND ON THE RATE OF

NATURAL INCREASE (BIRTHS VERSUS DEATHS) AND NET MIGRATION.

Demography is the statistical study of human populations. It encompasses the study of the size, structure,
and distribution of these populations, and spatial and/or temporal changes in them in response to birth,
migration, aging, and death.
Population change depends on the rate of natural increase and net migration.
Natural increase is calculated by the fertility rate minus the mortality rate.
Net migration depends on in-migration and out-migration.
TERMS:
mortality rate- The number of deaths per given unit of population over a given period of time.
demography- The study of human populations and how they change.
Net migration - The difference of immigrants and emigrants of an area in a period of time, divided
(usually) per 1,000 inhabitants (considered on midterm population). A positive value represents more people
entering the country than leaving it, while a negative value mean more people leaving than entering it.
Natural increase - Population growth that depends on the fertility rate and the mortality rate.

Demography is the statistical study of human populations. It can be a very general science that can be applied
to any kind of dynamic living population, or one that changes over time or space. It encompasses the study of
the size, structure, and distribution of these populations, and spatial and/or temporal changes in them in
response to birth, migration, aging, and death.

Human population growth depends on the rate of natural increase, or the fertility rate minus the mortality rate,
and net migration. The basics of demography can be reduced to this formula:
(Births - Deaths) +/- ((In-Migration) - (Out Migration)) = Population Change.
As this equation shows, population change depends on three variables: (1) the natural increase changes seen
in birth rates, (2) the natural decrease changes seen in death rates, and (3) the changes seen in migration.
Changes in population size can be predicted based on changes in fertility, mortality, and migration rates.
Natural increase refers to the increase in population not due to migration, and it can be calculated with the
fertility rate and the mortality rate. Net migration is the mathematical difference between those migrating into
a country and those migrating out of a country.

This basic equation can be applied to populations and subpopulations. For example, the population size
of ethnic groups or nationalities within a given society or country is subject to the same sources of change as
the national population. However, when dealing with ethnic groups, "net migration" might have to be
subdivided into physical migration and ethnic re-identification (assimilation). Individuals who change their
ethnic self-labels or whose ethnic classification in government statistics changes over time may be thought of
as migrating or moving from one population subcategory to another. More generally, while the basic
demographic equation holds true by definition, the recording and counting of events (births,
deaths, immigration, emigration) and the enumeration of the total population size are subject to error.
Allowance needs to be made for error in the underlying statistics when any accounting of population size or
change is made.

https://www.boundless.com/sociology/textbooks/boundless-sociology-textbook/population-and-urbanization17/population-growth-122/three-demographic-variables-687-2080/

WHAT IS POPULATION STRUCTURE?

Population structure is the composition of a given population, which is broken down into categories such as
age and gender. Population structure can be used to categorize populations into many subsections and
demonstrate population demographics on a local, regional or national scale.
Population structure is typically presented in a pyramid-style format. Population pyramids can be large or
small, depending on the size of population they represent and the different factors that they display.
Population pyramids show the breakdown of populations in towns, cities, continents or countries based on

certain characteristics, such as gender, socioeconomic status and age. These pyramids organize population
data and are useful for showing trends and patterns of the past, present and future.

POPULATION: AGE STRUCTURE, SEX COMPOSITION AND RURAL URBAN COMPOSITION

Important characteristics of a population, besides its size and growth rate, are the way in which its members
are distributed according to age, sex, and urban/rural status.
1. Age Structure:
The age structure of a population refers to the number of people in different age groups.
A larger size of population in the age group of 15-59 years indicates the chances of having a larger working
population. On the other hand, if the number of children in the population is
high, the dependency ratio will be high. Similarly, a growing population in
the age group of 60 plus indicates greater expenditure on the care of the
aged.
There are three types of age structures, viz., (i) the West European type
in .which children constitute less than 30 per cent, and 15 per cent of the
population are old; (ii) the North American type where 35-40 per cent of the
population are children and ten per cent, old people; and (iii) the Brazilian
type where 45-55 per cent of the population are children, and old people
constitute only four-eight per cent of the total population. The type of age
structure has a direct influence on the future of a nation, since both
extremes, i.e., old age dependency as well as young age dependency proves
to be a severe burden on the economy of a country.
Demographers use population pyramids to describe age distribution of populations. A population pyramid is a
bar chart/graph in which the length of each bar represents the number (or percentage) of persons in an age
group. We may take the youngest segment of the population at the base, and move on to the older segments till
the oldest comes at the top.
Youthful populations are represented by pyramids with a broad base and a narrow apex of older people:
The principal factor contributing to a change in the age distribution of a population is the rate of fertility: a
change in fertility affects the number of people in the single age group of age zero, or the newly born. Hence a
decline or increase in fertility has a significant effect at one end of the age distribution and can thereby
influence the overall age structure. This means that youthful age structures correspond to highly fertile
populations, typical of developing countries. The older age structures are those of low-fertility populations,
more common to the industrialised nations.
2. Sex Composition:
Another structural feature of populations is the relative numbers of males and females. Defined as the number
of females per 1000 males in the population, sex ratio is an important social indicator of the equity prevailing
between males and females at a given point of time. Factors influencing the sex ratio are, mainly, the
differentials in mortality, sex selective migration, and sex ratio at birth and, at times, the sex differential in
population enumeration.
By nature, slightly more males are born than females (a typical ratio being 105/106 males for every 100
females). However, males experience higher mortality at virtually all ages after birth. By implication, during
childhood males outnumber females of the same age; the different decreases as age increases; at some point in
the adult life span, the numbers of males and females become equal; as higher ages are reached, the number of
females becomes quite large.
India shows an uneven composition of population as compared to most of the developed countries. The
reasons put forward for such a state of affairs are: high maternal mortality, female infanticide, sex-selective

female abortions, neglect of the girl child leading to a higher mortality among girls at a young age, and change
in sex ratio at birth.
The sex composition of the population in India is a matter of concern, being much lower than 950 for a long
time.
It is interesting to note that rural-urban differentials in sex ratios in the US and in Western European countries
are just the opposite of those in developing countries, such as India. In developing countries, the males
outnumber the females in urban areas and the females outnumber the males in rural areas.
In the western countries, reverse is the case. There, farming in rural areas remains largely a masculine
occupation. In the western countries, there is an influx of females from rural areas to avail of the vast
employment opportunities in urban areas.
3. Rural-Urban Composition:
The division between rural and urban areas is significant in terms of geographical distribution of population.
The percentage of rural population is higher in farm-based agricultural countries, while industrially, developed
regions have higher share of urban population.
For a long time now, there has been a nearly universal flow of population from rural into urban areas. The
most highly urbanised societies in the world are these of western and northern Europe, Australia, New
Zealand, temperate South America, and North America: in all of these, the proportion of urban population
exceeds 75 per cent.
In many of the developing countries of Asia and Africa, the urbanisation process has only recently begun; less
than one-third of the population lives in urban areas. But the rate of growth of urban areas has shown a great
increase. The general rule for developing countries is that the rate of growth of urban areas is twice that of the
population as a whole.
A prominent feature of population redistribution, especially in developing countries, is the growth of major
cities. Almost half of the worlds population lives in cities. It is projected that there would be about eight
billion city dwellers in the world by 2030, and 80 per cent of them would be living in developing countries.

PHILIPPINE POPULATION PYRAMID

Age structure: 0-14 years: 33.71% (male 17,652,419/female 16,943,261)
15-24 years: 19.17% (male 10,042,520/female 9,629,762)
25-54 years: 36.86% (male 19,204,977/female 18,618,333)
55-64 years: 5.89% (male 2,758,867/female 3,282,416)
65 years and over: 4.38% (male 1,863,339/female 2,628,315) (2016 est.)
Definition: This entry provides the distribution of the population according to age. Information is included by
sex and age group (0-14 years, 15-64 years, 65 years and over). The age structure of a population affects a
nation's key socioeconomic issues. Countries with young populations (high percentage under age 15) need to
invest more in schools, while countries with older populations (high percentage ages 65 and over) need to
invest more in the health sector. The age structure can also be used to help predict potential political issues.
For example, the rapid growth of a young adult population unable to find employment can lead to unrest.
Population Pyramid
A population pyramid illustrates the age and sex structure of a country's population and may provide insights
about political and social stability, as well as economic development. The population is distributed along the
horizontal axis, with males shown on the left and females on the right. The male and female populations are

broken down into 5-year age groups represented as horizontal bars along the vertical axis, with the youngest
age groups at the bottom and the oldest at the top. The shape of the population pyramid gradually evolves over
time based on fertility, mortality, and international migration trends.

Source: CIA World Factbook - This page was last updated on October 8, 2016

IMPLICATIONS OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH

IMPLICATIONS OF DIFFERENT RATES OF GROWTH
Different rates of growth can lead to overpopulation or underpopulation, both of which have potential
consequences.
KEY POINTS
When the fertility rate is at the replacement level, a population will remain stable, neither growing nor
shrinking.
Fertility rates above the replacement level will cause the population to grow; fertility rates below the
replacement level will cause the population to shrink.
Overpopulation is judged relative to carrying capacity and can have deleterious effects. When the population
is too large for the available resources, famine, energy shortages, war, and disease can result.
Recently, in some countries, sub-replacement fertility rates have led to underpopulation. This can lead to
economic decline, the aging of the population, and poverty.
TERMS

fertility rate - The average number of children that would be born to a woman over her lifetime if she
followed the current average pattern of fertility among a given group of women and survived through her
reproductive years; used as an indicator of strength of population growth.
Replacement level - Regarding fertility, refers to the number of children that a woman must have in order to
replace the existing population.
gross domestic product - (GDP) The market value of all officially recognized final goods and services
produced within a country in a year; often used as an indicator of a country's material standard of living.
carrying capacity - The number of individuals of a particular species that an environment can support.
EXAMPLES
Urban areas in developing countries, such as Mumbai, India, have developed massive slums as population
growth has exceeded the amount of available land and housing.
In countries such as Italy, slow population decline has worried policymakers as GDP growth depends upon a
large, skilled labor pool and a strong consumer market.
Fertility rates refer to the rates of birth per 1,000 women of reproductive age in a given population. When the
fertility rate is at the replacement level, a population will remain stable, neither growing nor shrinking.
However, when the fertility rate deviates from the replacement level, the size of the population will change.
Fertility rates above the replacement level will cause the population to grow; fertility rates below the
replacement level will cause the population to shrink.
The population reached 6 billion people around 1999, and increased to around 7 billion by 2012. However, in
some countries the birth rate is falling while the death rate is not, leading to a decline in the population growth
rate. The population growth rate has been decreasing in higher income countries; however the number of
people added to the global population each year continues to increase due to increasing growth rates in lower
income countries.
Overpopulation
High fertility rates lead to population growth, which, under certain circumstances, can cause a condition
known as "overpopulation. " Overpopulation is not a function of the number or density of individuals, but
rather the number of individuals compared to the resources they need to survive. In other words, it is a ratio:
population to resources. Humans are not unique in their capacity for overpopulation; in general terms,
overpopulation indicates a scenario in which the population of a living species exceeds the carrying capacity
of its ecological niche.
When estimating whether an area is overpopulated, resources to be taken into account include clean water,
food, shelter, arable land, and various social services (such as jobs, money, education, fuel, electricity,
medicine, proper sewage and garbage management, and transportation).
Overpopulation can have deleterious effects. When population outstrips available resources, calamity can
result, including famine, shortages of energy sources and other natural resources, rapid and uncontrolled
spread of communicable diseases in dense populations, and war over scarce resources, such as land. Dense
populations may also settle available land and crowd out other land uses, such as agriculture.
Different rates of growth
Presently, every year the world's human population grows by approximately 80 million. However, that
population growth is not distributed evenly across all countries. Most population growth comes from
developing countries, where birthrates remain high. Meanwhile, about half the world lives in nations with subreplacement fertility. In some of these countries, the population has actually begun to shrink (e.g., Russia). All
of the nations of East Asia - with the exceptions of Mongolia, the Philippines, and Laos - have fertility rates
below replacement level. Russia and Eastern Europe are dramatically below replacement fertility. Western
Europe also is below replacement. In the Middle East Iran, Tunisia, Algeria, Turkey, and Lebanon are below
replacement. Some countries still have growing populations due to high rates of immigration, but have native
fertility rates below replacement: Canada, Australia, and New Zealand are similar to Western Europe, while
the United States is just barely below replacement with about 2.0 births per woman.

A new fear for many governments, particularly those in countries with very low fertility rates, is that a
declining population will lead to underpopulation and will reduce the gross domestic product (GDP) and
economic growth of the country, as population growth is often a driving force of economic expansion. To
combat extremely low fertility rates, some of these governments have introduced pro-family policies that
include incentives, such as payments to parents for having children and extensive parental leave for parents.
Source: Boundless. Implications of Different Rates of Growth. Boundless Sociology Boundless, 08 Aug.
2016. Retrieved 29 Jan. 2017 from https://www.boundless.com/sociology/textbooks/boundless-sociologytextbook/population-and-urbanization-17/population-growth-122/implications-of-different-rates-of-growth686-10354/

THE CAUSES OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH

Until recently, birth rates and death rates were about the same, keeping the population
stable. People had many children, but a large number of them died before age five.6
During the Industrial Revolution, a period of history in Europe and North America where
there were great advances in science and technology, the success in reducing death
rates was attributable to several factors: (1) in-creases in food production and
distribution, (2) improvement in public health (water and sanitation), and (3) medical
technology (vaccines and antibiotics), along with gains in education and standards of
living within many developing nations.7 Without these attributes present in many
children's lives, they could not have survived common diseases like measles or the flu.
People were able to fight and cure deadly germs that once killed them. In addition,
because of the technology, people could produce more and different kinds of food.
Gradually, over a period of time, these discoveries and inventions spread throughout
the world, lowering death rates and improving the quality of life for most people.8
Food Production Distribution
The remarkable facts about the last 150 years has been the ability of farmers to
increase food production geometrically in some places. Agricultural practices have
improved in the United States in the last two centuries. Much of the world experi-enced
agricultural success, especially in the last 50 years. Between 1950 and 1984, for
example, the amount of grain harvested worldwide increased from 631 million tons to
1.65 billion tons. This represents a gain of 2.6 times at a time when the world
population increased by only 1.9 times.9

In more recent years, the technology has produced a broader variety of tech-niques: new kinds of
seed, chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and more sophisticated machinery. The use of technology has
made possible the rapid expansion of agri-culture in the United States and other MDCs and LDCs.
The use of pesticides in LDCs, for example was expected to increased between 400 to 600% in the
last 25 years of the twentieth century. 10
During the past 10 years, the world's food production has increased by 24 per cent, outpacing the rate
of population growth.11 However, this increase was not evenly distributed throughout the world. For
example, in Africa, food pro-duction decreased, while population increased. And world cereal
production fell in 1993, according to the FAO, which predicted a food shortage in 20 countries
during 1994. 12 However, most experts agree that there is no shortage of food, and that equitable
distribution should be sufficient to meet all needs for the future. Lack of money to buy food is the
problem of malnourishment. Pov-erty, in effect translates the world adequacy into national and local
shortages. Within households, men and boys have priority for whatever food is available, while

women and children, especially girl children are the first to suffer malnu-trition. Few resources are
available to women, even though they are often re-sponsible the for food supply.13
Improvement in Public Health
People have concerns about surviving daily living, such as meeting basic needs: food,
water, and housing. First, access to safe drinking water was related to the incidence of
epidemic diseases such as cholera and child survival. Less than 50% of the population
had access to safe drinking water before 1990. By 1990, access to safe drinking water
had increased by 75 per cent. But between 1990 and 2000 the numbers of people
without access to safe water are projected to increase. 14 An increasing number of
countries both developed and develop-ing are approaching the limits of sustainable
water use based on their own re-newable resources.15

Second, the pressure to provide adequate housing increases as the population grows. More than half
of the developing world's population will be living in urban areas by the end of the century. This
growth outstrips the capacity to provide housing and services for others. In some countries, finding a
place to live is hard, especially for women. Some women and children are forced to live in the
poorest community where they are open to exploitation and abuse.16
The priorities for getting rid of poverty, improving food supply, ending malnu-trition, and providing
adequate housing coincide at all points with those required for balanced population growth.
Conquest of Disease
The biggest population story of the last hundred years has been the conquest of
disease. Scientists have learned a great deal about the ways to prevent and cure many
types of disease. Thus, millions of people who would have died of disease a century ago
are more likely to live to old age. The most effective tools in the con-quest of disease
have been improved knowledge about nutrition, vaccinations, bet-ter public health
practices and the development of new medicines17

In the late 80s, a baby born in Iceland was 32 times more likely to live to the age of one year as a
baby born in Afghanistan.18 The major reason for this large differ-ence in survival rate is nutrition.
When young children get enough of the right kinds of food, they are likely to live to be adults. In
many nations the people know about proper nutrition for young children and adults. Unfortunately, in
many LCDs the people lack the money and skills that would allow them to use the knowledge about
nutrition they already have. As a result, infant death rates and therefore, overall death rates, remain
high in many LDCs. 19
The second most important factor is vaccinations. As far back as 1800, scien-tists knew how to use
vaccines to protect people from infectious disease. Use of that knowledge has reduced the rate of
diseases like influenza, smallpox, polio and rubella in MDCs. Again, lack of resources has prevented
many LDCs from mak-ing similar use of vaccinations to reduce the rate of infectious disease and
death rates in their countries. Moreover, vaccines are still not available for some dis-eases-malaria is
the most obvious example and the greatest concern in LDCs.20
Third, better public health practices-- the germ theory of disease, discovered by Louis Pasteur in the
1870s clearly demonstrated that a person's health was also a community problem. Sewage dumped
into a public water supply could cause dis-ease throughout the community. With this understanding,
the science of public health was born. Today, public health measures like waste treatment, water

purifi-cation, vaccination, and nutritional education are well developed in MDCs. How-ever, public
health measures are still absent in many LDCs. As a result, disease continues to spread and cause
high death rates.21
And finally, with the advent of new medicines, disease was less of a problem in MDCs because
medical science has invented a whole range of new medicines with which to treat everything from
infections to pneumonia. In many LDCs, new drugs and medicines are simply not available. 22
As stated earlier, death rates in MDCs have fallen largely because of improved health and medical
knowledge and because of better health and medical practices based on that knowledge. Death rates
in many LDCs remain high because the money, personnel and facilities needed to put that knowledge
into practice are not available.23
Progress in medical science has, therefore, had a great effect on the population of most nations of the
world. Nearly everywhere death rates have fallen. At the same time, birth rates, at least in the LDCs,
have remained high. This combination of high birth rates and low death rates have led to the
population explosion in many countries throughout the world.
The end of the population explosion worldwide will be determined by how much countries invest in
family planning efforts to lower fertility and slow down popula-tion growth.
Different populations grow at different rates around the world. This depends on how many children
families have and the number of years someone is expected to live. The population of many
countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America are growing the fastest, especially where large families
are still important. These poorer, less developed countries (LDCs) tend to have shorter lives and
higher infant death rates. When couples know some of their children may die, they choose to have
more. However, many couples wish to limit family size, but lack the informa-tion and means to make
these choices. 24

THE CONSEQUENCES OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH

Rapid human population growth has a variety of consequences. Population grows fastest in the world's poorest
countries. High fertility rates have historically been strongly correlated with poverty, and high childhood
mortality rates. Falling fertility rates are generally associated with improved standards of living, increased life
expectancy, and lowered infant mortality. Overpopulation and poverty have long been associated with
increased death, and disease. 25 People tightly packed into unsanitary housing are inordinately vulnerable to
natural disasters and health problems.
However, most of the world's 1.2 billion desperately poor people live in less developed countries ( LDCs). 26
Poverty exists even in MDCs. One in five Soviet citizens reportedly lives below the country's official poverty
line. In the United States, 33 million people - -one in eight Americans are below the official poverty line. The
rapid expansion of population size observed since the end of World War II in the world's poorest nations has
been a cause of their poverty. 27
Poverty is a condition of chronic deprivation and need at the family level. 28 Poverty, is a major concern of
humankind, because poverty everywhere reduces human beings to a low level of existence. Poor people lack
access to enough land and income to meet basic needs. A lack of basic needs results in physical weak-ness and
poor health. Poor health decreases the ability of the poor to work and put them deeper into poverty.

Instead of allowing poverty to persist, it is important to limit our number be-cause in dense populations too
many lack adequate food, water, shelter, education and employment. High fertility, which has been
traditionally associated with pros-perity, prestige, and security for the future, now jeopardizes chances for
many to achieve health and security. 29
Rich and poor countries alike are affected by population growth, though the population of industrial countries
are growing more slowly than those of develop-ing one. At the present growth rates, the population of
economically developed countries would double in 120 years. The Third World, with over three quarters of
the world's people, would double its numbers in about 33 years. This rapid dou-bling time reflects the fact that
37 percent of the developing world's population is under the age of 15 and entering their most productive
childbearing years. In the Third World countries (excluding China), 40 percent of the people are under 15; in
some African countries, nearly half are in this age group. 30
The world's current and projected population growth calls for an increase in efforts to meet the needs for food,
water, health care, technology and education. In the poorest countries, massive efforts are needed to keep
social and economic con-ditions from deteriorating further; any real advances in well-being and the quality of
life are negated by further population growth. Many countries lack adequate supplies of basic materials
needed to support their current population. Rapid population growth can affect both the overall quality of life
and the degree of hu-man suffering on Earth. 31

ACTIONS AND STRATEGIES THAT CAN BE DEVELOPED TO SOLVE THESE PROBLEMS

There is controversy over whether population growth is good or bad. Over-population and continuing
population growth are making substantial contributions to the destruction of Earth's life support systems. In
the past, human populations have rarely been subject to explosion. In numbers. The powerful long-term momentum that is built into the human age structure means that the effects of fertility changes become apparent
only in the future. For these reasons, it is now conven-tional practice to use the technology of population
projection as a means of better understanding the implications of trends.
Population projections represent the playing out into the future of a set of as-sumptions about future fertility
and mortality rates. More public education is needed to develop more awareness about population issues.
Facts like the size or the growth rate of the human population should be in the head of every citizen. Schools
should inform students about population issues in order for them to make projections about the future
generations.
Action plans and strategies can be developed to increase public understanding of how rapid population growth
limits chances for meeting basic needs. The spirit of open communication, and empowerment of individual
women and men will be key to a successful solution to many population problems. Collective vision about
health care, family planning and women's education at the community level build a basis for action. The
creation of action plans help to meet challenges to find coop-erative solutions. Free and equal access to health
care, family planning and educa-tion are desirable in their own right and will also help reduce unwanted
fertility.
Individual choice, human rights and collective responsibility are key to al-lowing families to plan the size and
spacing of their children. It is essential to achieve a balance between population and the available resources.
Teachers, par-ents, community workers and other stakeholders should extend the range of choices about
available resources to individuals, especially women, and by equal-izing opportunities between the genders
from birth onwards.

Teachers, parents, other educators, politicians and other concerned citizens can practice how to make good
decisions in everyday life. Decisions about family size, and resource will affect the future generations.
Through commu-nity forums, specific issues about the population growth can be discussed and possible
action plans can be developed.
Teachers, as well as students can use the information super highway to gain knowledge about other countries'
population and resources. Teachers can help students with problems and decision making on a daily basis. The
investigation of world population will raise the level of awareness, so that we can learn to handle problems
based on data. This data can help us to analyze our situations in a practical way.
Teachers, students, parents and other stakeholders can look for trends in the population explosion. They can
hold community meetings at school to discuss how this issue presents a challenge to the big picture of human
population on the planet "Earth".

ACTIVITY
A. Here's Your Dilemma:
You love children and would like to have a large family. You are aware, however, that the world's population
is expected to double in the coming century. You are also aware of the financial and environmental cost of a
large family. What would you do and why? Would you:
1. plan to have a large family
2. decide not to have children
3. limit yourself to one or two children
4. get involved with youth groups scouts, tutoring, teaching, etc. emergency foster care, to still be around
groups of youngsters.
5. Others

B. Overview: In a society where tradition often clashes with modern ideology, decision making may be
taxing.
Goal: To act out the decision making process of a married couple in an urban area in Connecticut discussing
whether or not they will add another child to their family.
Objective: student will (1) discuss attitudes affecting family size in Connecticut; (2) make a decision after
listening to opinion.
Skills To Be Developed
1. Role Playing
2. Persuasive speaking
3. Problem Solving