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Statistical Thinking

7 Step Problem Resolution


Dimitar Cvetkov
March 2010

Table Of Contents

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Mean = 22.4

Process Performance

Essential Terms
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10

Variation
11 42
units

5
0
1

10

11

12

13

14

15

Measurement Number

An understanding of the following terms are critical:


Mean:
The central value around which the process varies
Variation:
Results when two or more measures of the process are
different, which is the rule rather then the exception
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Framework for Training in Statistical Thinking


Sequence of Training:
1.
2.
3.
4.

Why do we need statistical thinking?


What is statistical thinking?
Present examples of statistical thinking
Present high level and detailed models of overall
approaches to improvement
5. Training on individual tools, introducing each by
referring back to its role in the big picture

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Driving Factors
We are facing dramatic changes due to the
influence of information technology and global
competition
Our customers have more choices and demand
and expect more from our products and services
We are continually being asked to do more with
less, to work in different ways, to provide better
service, to provide better quality at smaller cost,
etc.

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Motivation for Statistical Thinking

Data is abundant; we must have the ability to


harness data for competitive advantage
Statistical thinking and its methods are the keys to
unleashing powerful information contained in data
Statistical thinking leads to shorter cycle times,
better designs, heightened reliability, decreased
costs
Statistical thinking can be applied in all of our
own operations and in all operations across
RIM
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Clockspeed

Each industry has its own evolutionary life cycle


(clockspeed) at which new products, processes,
and organizational structures are introduced
All advantage is temporary the faster the industry
clockspeed, the shorter the half-life of competitive
advantage
Lasting success to companies who can anticipate,
time and time again, what capabilities are worth
investing in and which should be outsourced

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Importance of Data
Data are the link between the doing and
improving activities
Without data:
Everyone is an expert; discussions create more heat then light
Historical memory is poor
Difficult to get agreement on:
What the problem is
What success looks like
Progress made

Process management is ineffective


Improvement is slowed
Organizational learning is hampered

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And if thats not motivation enough

Statistical Thinking and data gives us:


The ability to speak a common language
Efficient use of time we concentrate on doing the right
things right
Means to facilitate the improving part of your job so you
can eliminate problems that are plaguing you
A clear indication of your progress and how you are
improving
Increased job and life satisfaction yes statistical
thinking can be applied to many things outside of work

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Barriers to Statistical Thinking

Lack of training
Threat to authority
Fear of statistics
Too busy
Unwillingness to change
Dont want to be confused by the facts

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What is Statistical Thinking?

Statistical Thinking is a basis for improvement


and a philosophy of learning and action based on
the following fundamental principles:

1. All work occurs in a system of


interconnected processes
2. Variation exists in all processes, and
3. Understanding and reducing variation are
keys to success

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Principle #1: All work occurs in a system of


interconnected processes
A process is one or more connected activities in
which inputs are transformed into outputs for a
specific purpose
providing the context for understanding
the organization,
improvement potential,
sources of variation in the second and third principles

Each organization is system of processes that


interconnect and interact to provide a product or
service for a customer
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Example
Here are some of our own processes:
S

Manufacturing

-Nypro
-Epson
-AT&S

-Plastics
-LCDs
-PCBs

-Inspection
-SMT
-BLT
-Assembly

-Blackberry!

-T-Mobile
-Verizon
-End-Users

Root cause
analysis

-Blackberry
user

-Faulty device
-Information
about problem
or question

-7-step problem
solving method
-Interaction with
other teams

-New
information on
device failures
-Final report

-RIM group that


can eliminate
root cause
-All Blackberry
users

Recruitment

-People
submitting
resumes
-OD

-Resumes

-Developing
criteria
-Interviews
-Evaluation

-Potential
candidates
-Ultimately, new
employee

-My manager
-Rest of RIM

Laboratory
Measurement

- People who
want
measurements

- Devices for
measurement

-Measurement
and evaluation
-Report
generation

- Information
and analysis of
measurements

- People who
want
measurements

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Process Measures
Key to successful management and improvement
of processes
Tracking process measures over time will enable
analysis:
Assessing current performance levels
Determining if the process has shifted compared to
historical data
Determine if minor or major adjustments to the process
are needed
Predict future performance

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Identify CTQs
Critical to Quality Characteristics:
Features that significantly impact the final cost,
performance, or safety of a product when the CTQs vary
from nominal
Gives understanding of what quality looks like to
customer
Allow team to validate that the project is focused on
important issues to the customer
Need accurate definitions of CTQs
After identification of CTQs these will be the parameters
used for measuring

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Principle #2: Variation Exists in all Processes


Variation is everywhere, entering our process and
systems through people, machines, materials,
methods, measurement, and the environment
Variation results when two or more things, which
we expect to be the same, turn out to be different
Understanding the nature of variation is a key
strategy to improve performance

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Principle #2: Variation Exists in all Processes

Number of Hours

30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1

Measuremnt Number

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10

11

12

13

Principle #3: Understanding and reducing


variation are keys to success
First, must identify the source, characterize, and
quantify variation in order to understand both the
variation and the process that produced it
Understanding variation can lead to:
Reduction in variation
Adjusting the output to a more desirable level

Depending upon whether the variation is Commoncause or Special-cause variation, methods to


improve a process and solve problems will vary

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Two types of variation:


Special-Cause Variation

Common-Cause Variation

Temporary and Unpredictable

Always Present

Few sources but each has a large


effect

Numerous sources but each has a


small effect

Often related to a specific event

Part of the normal behavior of the


process

Process is unstable

Process is stable

Distinctions are very important because the proper


approach for improving processes is different
depending on the type of variation

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Principle #3: Understanding and reducing


variation are keys to success
Process Improvement Strategy:
Addresses common-cause variation
A series of activities aimed at fundamentally improving the
performance of the process
Process Improvement Strategy

Problem Solving Strategy:


Addresses special-cause variation
Addresses specific problems that are not part of the normal behavior
of the process.
Issues can be discovered in the process improvement analysis
7-step Problem Solving Method

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Process Improvement Strategy

7-Step Problem Solving Method

STEP 1: Describe the Process

STEP 1: Describe the Problem

STEP 2: Collect Data on Key Process


and Output Measures

STEP 2: Data Collection and Analysis

STEP 3: Root Cause Analysis


STEP 3: Assess Process Stability

STEP 4: Address Special Cause


Variation

STEP 4: Solution Planning and


Implementation

STEP 5: Evaluate Results


STEP 5: Evaluate Process Capability
No

STEP 6: Analyze Common Cause


Variation

Problem
Solved?
Yes

STEP 6: Standardize Improvements


STEP 7: Study Cause-and-Effect
Relationships
21
STEP 8: Plan and Implement Changes
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STEP 7: Reflect on Problem Solving


Process and Lessons Learned

Principle #2: Variation Exists in all Processes


With an understanding of variation:
Management by the last data point can be avoided
Less firefighting is necessary; methods to solve special
cause problems wont be applied to common cause
problems
Decreased need for tampering and micromanaging
Understanding of the process is improved; pace of
learning is increased
Process management is effective
Improvement occurs quicker

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Principle #3: Understanding and reducing


variation are keys to success
Statistical thinking demands we ask Why
Weve always done it this
way!
Im so busy firefighting, I
dont have time to try that!
We work with what we get!
We do the best we can!
That has no effect on
finished product!

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Why is incoming material


inconsistent?
Why are our customers
having these problems?
Why does our daily output
vary?
Why am I too busy to do
the rest of my job?

Statistical Thinking Approach

Important corollaries to statistical thinking theory

There is variation in business processes


There will be shifts in business processes
Statistical thinking operates sequentially
There is synergy between data and subject matter theory
When we collect more data, we understand our subject better.
In turn, we can collect better data, leading to understanding,
etc., etc.

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Follow Up Training

1. Present strategies for improvement in-depth:


Process Improvement Strategy
7 Step Problem-Solving Method

2. Training on individual tools, introducing each by


referring back to its role in the two Statistical
Thinking strategies

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Problem Solving
What Is a Problem?
A Problem Is Defined As a Discrepancy Between an Existing
Standard or Expectation and the Actual Situation.

Standard
Discrepancy
LEVEL

Actual
TIME

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Problem Solving

Problems Are Positive Opportunities

If There Are No Problems Then


Something Is Wrong!

Growing
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Problem Solving Tools and Techniques


Flow Chart

Fishbone Diagram

Pareto Chart

Problem

Histogram

Problem

5 Whys

Run Chart

Why
Why
Why
Why
Why
Root Cause

Scatter Plot

Control Chart

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Pictograph

Basic Level Tools

Problem Solving Tools and Techniques


Problem
Identification

Containment

Failure Mode and Choose & Implement


Root Cause Analysis Corrective Actions

Pareto Analysis

Containment Process

5-Why Analysis

Decision Matrix

Control Charts

Capability (Quality) Index

Descriptive Statistics

Cause & Effect Diagram

Gantt Chart

Process Control Plan

Check Sheet

Run Chart/Trend Chart

Cause & Effect Matrix

Trend Chart

Error-Proofing

Capability (Quality) Matrix

Read Across Table /


Replicate

Is / Is not (Stratification
Analysis)

Brainstorming

Measure System Analysis


(Gauge R&R)

Histogram

Lessons Learned
Database

Flow-Charting
Work Flow Analysis
Benchmarking / Best
Practices
Fault Tree Analysis
Scatter Diagram
Supplier Input Process
Output Customer
(SIPOC)

Failure Mode & Effects


Analysis (FMEA)

Intermiediate Level Tools

Concentarion Diagram
Design Of Experiment
Linear Regression
Analysis
Hypothesis Testing
Paynter Chart
Capability (Quality0 Index
Multi-vari
Process Flow Map

Advanced Level Tools

P-Diagram / Parameter
Design
Quality Function
Development: Voice of
the Cutomer, Voice of the
Process

Design Of Experiment:
Full Factorial, Fractional
Factorial

Test to Failure

Statistical Tolerancing

Monte Carlo Simulation

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Control &
Standardize

Taguchi - Robust Design

7 Step Problem Solving method

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PDCA

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Step 1 Describe the Problem

* Describe the historical situation of the problem, if applicable.


* Describe the current situation of the problem, using data to help you
understand the situation.
* Use Pareto Charts to help narrow down the focus of the problem.
* Analyze control charts to understand the process.
* Analyze run charts to determine if there are any patterns or trends.
* The end result of Step 1 is: A better understanding of the problem with a
theme statement, with the baseline of the problem and the team's desired
goals, for the investigation.
* Tools that are appropriate for Step 1 include:
Affinity Diagram
Pareto chart
Flow Chart
Run Chart
Control Chart
Cause and Effect Diagram
Force Field Analysis
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Pareto Chart

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Step 2 Data Collection and Analysis

* Have a plan for collection and analyzing the data.


* Make sure the data collector understands the data collection method.
* Ensure everyone understands what data needs to be collected and the
reasons for the data to be collected.
* Do a trial run to ensure the data collection plan is feasible and appropriate.
* Ensure the data collection plan is followed from start to finish.
* The end result of Step 2 is:
A disciplined structure for collecting and analyzing data to help
understand a situation/problem/solution.
Tools that are appropriate for Step 2 include:
Run Chart
Histogram
Control Chart
Pareto chart
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Step 3 Root Cause Analysis

* Generate all the possible causes of the problem.


* Use a Cause and Effect Diagram to help you list all of the causes.
Affinity Diagrams and Interrelationship Digraphs can also be used.
* Converge on the root or major causes. There may be more than one.
Decide which one should be tackled first.
* Verify the root/major cause. Use a scatter diagram to check if there is a
relationship between the cause and effect.
* The end result of Step 3 is:
The root cause is now identified and verified.
A list of causes for future problem-solving activities should be kept to
help understand the situation.
Tools that are appropriate for Step 3 include:
5 Whys
Cause and Effect Diagram
MultiVari / Matrix diagram
Pareto chart
Flow Chart Scatter Plot Tree Diagram
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5 Why Analysis
The following example demonstrates the basic process of 5 Why:
Problem: Car will not start. (ICAR Problem description)
Why? - The battery is dead. (first why)
Eg. today we might just change the battery..
Why? - The alternator is not functioning. (second why)
Why? - The alternator belt has broken. (third why)
Why? - The alternator belt was well beyond its useful service life
and has never been replaced. (fourth why)
Why? - I have not been maintaining my car according to the
recommended service schedule. (fifth why, root cause)
Why 5 Why??? Its simple, its logical, its effective and everyone can do it.
Isnt it time we

Stop swatting at flies and fix the hole in the screen door Stephen R. Covey

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5 Why Analysis - Example


Why did the robot stop?
A fuse in the robot has blown
Why is the fuse blown?
Circuits overloaded
Why did the circuit overload?
The bearings have damaged one another and locked up
Why have the bearings damaged one another?
There was insufficient lubrication in the bearings
Why was there insufficient lubrication in the bearings?
The oil pump on the robot is not circulating sufficient oil.
Why is the pump not circulating sufficient oil?
Pump intake is clogged with metal shavings.
Why is the intake clogged with metal shavings?
No filter on the pump intake.
Why was there no filter on the pump intake?
Pump not designed with filter
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5 Why Analysis - Example

You were late for work this morning.


Why?

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5 Why Analysis - Example

You were late for work this morning.


Why were you late for work this morning?
My Car would not start.
Why wouldnt you start your car?
The started would not turn the engine over.
Why would not the starter turn over the engine?
The batter was too weak to engine starter. I had to get my friend to jump it with
another car battery .
Why was the battery power low?
The alternator was not producing enough electrical energy to keep it
charged..
Why was the alternator output low?
The alternator drive belt was slipping, which was corrected by
tightening the belt.
Root Cause

Loose alternator drive belt.

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5 Why Analysis - Example

You were late for work this morning.


Why were you late for work this morning?
My Car would not start.
Why wouldnt you start your car?
The started would not turn the engine over.
Why would not the starter turn over the engine?
The batter was too weak to engine starter. I had to get my friend to jump it with
another car battery .
Why was the battery power low?
The alternator was not producing enough electrical energy to keep it
charged..
Why was the alternator output low?
The alternator drive belt was slipping, which was corrected by
tightening the belt.
Root Cause

Loose alternator drive belt.

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Cause and Effect Diagram

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Cause and Effect Diagram Cont.


Also called: Cause-and-Effect Diagram, Ishikawa
Diagram
Identifies many possible causes for an effect or
problem. It can be used to structure a brainstorming
session. It immediately sorts ideas into useful
categories.
Graphical representation of the trail leading to the
root cause of a problem
Why use it?
To allow a team to identify, explore, and graphically
display, in increasing detail, all of the possible causes
related to a problem or condition to discover its root
cause(s).
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Cause and Effect Diagram Cont.

How is it done?
Decide which quality characteristic, outcome or effect
you want to examine (may use Pareto chart)
Backbone draw straight line
Ribs categories
Medium size bones secondary causes
Small bones root causes

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Cause and Effect Diagram Cont.


What does it do?
Enables a team to focus on the content of the problem,
not on the history of the problem or differing personal
interests of team members.
Creates a snapshot of the collective knowledge and
consensus of a team around a problem. This builds
support for the resulting solutions.
Focuses the team on causes, not symptoms.

When to use it?


When identifying possible causes for a problem.
Especially when a teams thinking tends to fall into ruts.

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Cause and Effect Diagram - Example

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Cause and Effect Diagram - Example

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Matrix Diagram - Summary of TQC Education

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Flow Chart

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Exercise

What are the possible sources of variation in your


work? Create a cause and effect diagram with
variation in your process measurement as the
effect.
How will you determine whether each source is
common cause or special cause?

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Step 4 Solution Planning and Implementation


* Generate solutions that address the root cause.
* Use Prioritization Matrices to determine which solution is the best solution
for the company.
* Develop an implementation plan. Consider all the risks involved with
implementing the solution. Create contingency plans to offset those risks.
* Tree Diagrams and Process Decision Program Charts (PDPC) are useful
for breaking the solution down into assignable tasks.
* Activity Network Diagrams are great for scheduling the imp. plan.
* The end result of Step 4 is:
The solution that will attack the root cause will be planned.
An implementation plan will be developed with risks assessments and
contingency plans. A trial run was carried out with success.
Tools that are appropriate for Step 4 include:
Affinity Diagram
Prioritization Matrices
Activity Network Diagram
Tree Diagram
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Prioritization Matrices

* Prioritization Matrix is a
method to encourage the team
approach for comparing each
criterion and option to every
other criterion and option in a
decision making situation.
* It facilitates team decision
making and minimizes the
effect of individual biases and
assumptions

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Tree Diagram

The Tree Diagram is a


great communication
tool that maps the
tasks for
implementation of a
project*

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Step 5 Evaluate Results


* Schedule in regular intervals for measuring the results of the solution and
implementation.
* Designate a champion for the solution and implementation to ensure that
the change will become the norm. ( Freeze the Gains)
* Refine the solution as necessary.
* Compare the performance to the original goals and to the baseline to see if
you improved.
The end result of Step 5 is:
Whether the solution worked or not is revealed.
Any refinements to the solution and implementation plan should be done.
Tools that are appropriate for Step 5 include:
Run Chart
Histogram
Control Chart
Scatter Plot
Pareto chart
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Step 5 Evaluate Results

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Step 6 Standardize Improvements


* Create the appropriate documents and update any existing documents
to reflect the change.
* Train the appropriate people on the change, if required.
* Communicate the change to the whole organization. Reduce resistance
through awareness of why the change was implemented and how the
change will benefit the company.
* Monitor to ensure that everyone is following the change.
* The end result of Step 6 is:
The change is now part of the normal routine/process.
All the necessary documents have been created or updated to reflect
the change.
Training has been provided if required.
Tools that are appropriate for Step 6 include:
Flow Chart
Tree Diagram
Control Chart
Run Chart
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Step 7 Reflect on Success and Lessons


Learned
*
*
*
*
*
*

Identify factors that helped the team.


Identify factors that hindered the team.
What did the team do right?
What did the team do wrong?
What should the team have done differently?
The end result of Step 7 is:
The members of the team have a better sense of what was
accomplished.
There is a better understanding of how the problem-solving process
can be improved for the next project. ( Lessons Learned)
The success should be celebrated!

Tools that are appropriate for Step 7 include:


Pareto chart
Matrix diagram
Prioritization Matrices
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Problem Solving Comparison


Assemble
a Team

Recognize the
Efforts of the
Team

Define
the
Problem

Implement
& Verify
Interim
Solutions

Problem
Description

Lessons
Learned
Prevent
Recurrence of
the Problem/
Root Cause

Data Collection
& Analysis
Define

Standardize
Improvements

Measure

Control
Act

Check

Plan

Root Cause
Analysis

Analyze

Do

Improve
Evaluate
Results

PDCA
DMAIC
7 Step

Identify &
Verify Root
Cause

Implement &
Validate
Permanent &
Corrective
Actions

8D
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Solution
Planning &
Implementation

Choose &
Verify
Permanent
Corrective
Actions &
Preventive
Actions

Habit of Daily Problem Solving

Daily problem-solving tips in a lean organization:


Keep what may seem like little problems from adding up and
becoming big problems in the future. The only way to work on
tomorrows problems is to work on the problems today while they are
still small.
Use visual management and standard work tools to catch problems
before they start adding up.
Build the skills, tools and systems needed to deal with those
problems as soon as possible.
Start using 5-Why analysis. Continue asking Why? at different
stages in order to dig deeper into the root cause of a problem.
Use Plan-Do-Check-Act, or PDCA. Without fully understanding the
cause of what is happening in a situation, an organization will not
have the control in its processes in order to sustain lean.
Understand that the small problems are a valuable contribution for
future

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Example: Step 1 Define the Problem

Problem description
S204 open pin was the top #1 SMT defects on Tachyon II board in the week of Aug 23
It contributed 34% to the total SMT defects

SMT defects breakdown:


open pin is the top #1

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Open pin defects breakdown:


S204 was the top #1

Example: Step 1 Define the Problem

Identify the team and goal


What: To reduce S204 open pin DPU from 0.067 to
Zero
When: In one month
Who: Surinder Jassal; Natasha Wyatt; Jack QL Han;
Peter Liu; Andrew Ryzynski; Owen Sha

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Example: Step 2 Data Collection and Analysis


S204 failure history: We didnt have same issue before

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Example: Step 2 Data Collection and Analysis


From Aug 01 to Aug 17 we had open pin only on S204 instead of
S201 even though they are the same part.

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Example Step 3 Root Cause Analysis


Cause and effect analysis
Method

Manpower

Material
Bad solder
paste

Reflow
profile

Part poorsolderability

Stencil
aperture
blocked

Not enough
heat

Part pin
Coplanarity
Issue

S204 Open
Pin
Pad design
PCB Design
S201 too
closed to the
shield

Placement
issue
Oven need
calibration

Dry paste due


to idle time
Printing problem
Printing
parameter setting

Design

Machine

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Example Step 3 Root Cause Analysis

Further investigation on the critical causes


Reflow temperature:
The reflow profile were measured for both S201 and S204. They were the same.
So reflow temperature is not the problem
Part solderability:
Part passed the solderability test
Part pin coplanarity:
By design the pins can freely move up and down. It should have same impact
on both S201 and S204. But the fact is that most of the defects were from S204.
So this is not the root cause
Pad design:
Different pad design for S201 and S204

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Example Step 3 Root Cause Analysis


Pad design:
There were 2 different pad designs for the same part
CON-AR010-001

S201: Separated pads

S204: Shared pad for all the leads

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Example Step 3 Root Cause Analysis


Root Cause: Pad design issue
Any solderability difference between leads or copalanarity issue will cause the
solder be sucked to the leads with better solderability. The other leads will not be
wetted properly with enough solder and time

The reason why we didnt have this problem before is that, due to RF concerns, the
pad was modified for the new rev board

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Example Step 4 Solution Planning and


Implementation
Solutions
Solutions
Short term
solution

Increase stencil aperture


size to over-print the pads

Eliminate
S204 Open
Pin Defects
Long term
solution

Modify the
PCB design

Add solder
mask on pad

Decision

When

Who

Next
Proto

Surinder

Next
Rev

PCB
Designe
rs

N/A

N/A

Change pad
layout

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Example Step 5 Evaluate Results


Stencil aperture change alone reduced
the S204 open pin

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Example Step 5 Evaluate Results

Tried new rev PCB with solder mask defined


pad and the result is good. Hope this will further
reduce the defects once the new rev get
implemented for production

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Example Step 6 Standardize Improvements

Stencil design change was implemented for Eltron II as well


New pad design was implemented for Eltron II PCB

The old design

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The new design

Example Step 7 Reflect on Problem Solving


Process and Lessons Learned
Cross-functional team is important in systematic problem solving
process. In this project we involved SMT process engineer, supplier
quality, process quality and material specialist
Product and process design need to be robust to tolerate process
variations
Quality is designed into product, design review and change control
process will prevent the problem from beginning

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Problem Solving Process

Goals of a Problem Solving Process:

Organization has total participation in problem solving

People have a feeling of control over their problems

100% of the people have been trained in problem solving

Problem solving is a habit

Create an organization with a culture of empowerment

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Questions & Answers

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