Professional Documents
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2010
PA G E 1
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E X P L O S I O N H A Z A R D S A N A LY S I S
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The Fire and Explosion Hazards Analysis textbook is a result of the collaborative efforts of the author with other
professional representatives in the field of industrial safety engineering. They contributed substantially to the
development of this manual by providing technical information and review. Although they are too numerous to name
individually, I wish gratefully acknowledge their valuable contributions.
PA G E 2
TA B L E
OF
CONTENTS
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Introduction..................................................................................................................................................................63
Risk Assessment of Liquified Natural Gas Spills Over Water.......................................................................................64
Risk Analysis Elements of a Potential Spill..............................................................................................................64
Spill Risk Assessment and Management Process....................................................................................................65
The Elements of an Spill Over Water......................................................................................................................65
Risk Reduction Strategy: Prevention and Mitigation..............................................................................................67
Spill Consequence Analysis...........................................................................................................................................67
Asphyxiation Potential and Impacts........................................................................................................................67
Spill Dispersion and Thermal Hazards....................................................................................................................68
The Simplified Simulation Model and Theory........................................................................................................69
Bibliography and References.........................................................................................................................................74
A Fire Risk Assessment Tool to Evaluate Fire Safety in Industrial Facilities and Large Spaces.........................................76
Introduction..................................................................................................................................................................76
The Fire Development Models......................................................................................................................................76
Suppression Effectiveness........................................................................................................................................78
Fire Department Response and Effectiveness..........................................................................................................78
Occupant Response and Evacuation.......................................................................................................................78
Life Hazard Model.........................................................................................................................................................79
Expected Number of Deaths...................................................................................................................................80
Economic Consequences.........................................................................................................................................81
Hazard Analysis Procedure...........................................................................................................................................81
Bibliography and References.........................................................................................................................................83
Human Resistance Against Thermal Effects, Explosion Effects and Obscuration of Vision..............................................84
Introduction..................................................................................................................................................................84
Thermal Effects.............................................................................................................................................................85
Physiological Effects.................................................................................................................................................85
Pathological Effects..................................................................................................................................................86
Effects of Explosions.....................................................................................................................................................88
Toxic Effects..................................................................................................................................................................89
Effects of Carbon Monoxide....................................................................................................................................90
Effects of Carbon Dioxide........................................................................................................................................90
Effects of Oxygen Depletion....................................................................................................................................91
Overall Smoke Effects.............................................................................................................................................91
Effects of Other Gases.............................................................................................................................................92
Obscuration of Vision....................................................................................................................................................93
Bibliography and References.........................................................................................................................................94
PA G E 4
Chapter 1
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INTRODUCTION
The potential for air and hydrocarbons to mix is an inherent risk in oil and gas operations. As a result, the industry
continues to experience serious oilfield fires and explosions that injure and kill workers. Industry Recommended Practice
IRP 18 standard is aimed at prevention of fire and explosion incidents. The single most significant observation from the
case studies was the overall lack of awareness of the fire and explosion hazards. Committee members from Industry
Recommended Practice were consistently surprised that the workers involved did not recognize and respond to obvious
warning signs. The evidence suggests that those involved in the planning and execution of oilfield operations must have
a better understanding of fire and explosion hazards to reduce the potential for similar events. The fire triangle shoen in
Figure 1.01 is used to illustrate the three critical components required for combustion to occur. It is widely understood
that to eliminate the potential of a fire or explosion, one of the three sides of the fire triangle must be eliminated. Given
the nature of well drilling and completion operations, this is not as simple as it seems:
(1) There is always potential for flammable and combustible substances to be present. More importantly, their
properties can vary based on operating conditions.
(2) There is a wide range of oil and gas operations with an equally wide range of circumstances where air (oxygen) can
be combined with fuels. The accidental release of hydrocarbons into a work area is an ongoing concern. The
planned or accidental entry of air into a closed system also requires attention.
(3) There are a wide range of ignition sources. Some ignition sources, such as static electricity and adiabatic
compression, are not well understood and are even more difficult to identify and control.
The ability to develop effective solutions for improving industry safety depends on developing a better understanding of
these elements. A modified fire triangle with expanded parameter lists is shown in Figure 1.01. The total avoidance of
fire or explosion hazards is not always possible. However, there are steps that can be introduced to decrease the overall
risk of a fire or explosion. Based on the results of the investigative work completed on Industry Recommended Practice
(IRP 18), the first step is increasing the understanding of the hazards. To prevent future incidents, an accurate
assessment of the operational threats and the required barriers is necessary for each dimension of the fire triangle. It is
important to know the properties of the air-fuel mixture as well as the range of potential ignition sources. With this
knowledge it is possible to determine the best steps to take to insure that the safest procedures are in place. Having all
three parts of the fire triangle does not guarantee that an explosion will occur. The complex mechanics involved in
combustion never guarantees that the same result happens every time. The probability of an explosion occurring in
certain situations can be very high; however it is never absolutely certain. Operations cannot be considered safe based
on the fact that there have been no previous incidents. Any time air and fuel are permitted to mix in flammable
proportions it should be assumed that the potential for ignition exists.
Three important properties that must be understood are the flammability limits, the minimum auto-ignition
temperature, and minimum ignition energy of a fuel.
FLAMMABILITY LIMITS
The upper (rich) and lower (lean) flammability limits define the range of concentrations of a gas or vapour in air that
can be ignited and sustain combustion. Any composition outside of these limits cannot be ignited. The lower
flammability limit decreases slightly as pressure is increased. However, the upper flammability limit can increase
substantially as pressure increases. While these trends are consistent for all hydrocarbons, each fuel has a different
flammable range. Other factors that widen the flammability range include:
(1) Increased temperatures widen the flammable range.
(2) Flammability limits are widened by the increased energy of the ignition source.
(3) If pure oxygen, instead of air, mixes with a hydrocarbon, the flammability limits may be widened.
Moisture and other contaminants will also affect the flammability range.
PA G E 5
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A U T O - I G N I T I O N T E M P E R AT U R E
A fuel and air mixture can ignite without the introduction of an ignition source. The minimum auto-ignition
temperature is the lowest temperature at which the fuel vapours spontaneously ignite. Hydrocarbons that have been
heated can ignite if they are exposed to air. Methane has the highest auto-ignition temperature. As the number of
carbon atoms present in the hydrocarbon increases, the auto-ignition temperature decreases. In other words, heavier
hydrocarbons tend to auto-ignite before lighter hydrocarbons. Increased pressures can also reduce the auto-ignition
temperature.
Solids:
Lubricants.
Sealants.
Packings, O rings, diaphragms and valve seats.
Paints and coatings.
Chemicals:
Solvents and cleaning agents.
Special compounded hydraulic fluids and lubricants.
Chemicals used for well servicing and stimulations.
Gases:
Natural gas.
Hydrogen sulphide.
Liquified petroleum gases (LPG).
Are the other relevant gases(i.e. hydrogen, acetylene).
Fuel Source
(Hydrocarbons)
Energy
(Ignition)
Oxygen Source
(Air)
Oxygen Sources:
1. Planned Introduction of Air
Air-based operations.
Air purging.
2. Unplanned Introduction of Air
Underbalanced operations.
Swabbing and other operations that create a vacuum.
Pockets of air created during the installation and servicing of equipment.
Oxidized (weathered).
3. Hydrocarbons
Oxidizers.
Chemical reactions.
On-site generated nitrogen.
4. Release of Hydrocarbons into Air
PA G E 6
O T H E R R E L E VA N T H Y D R O C A R B O N C O N S I D E R AT I O N S
With the exception of a few reactive or unstable substances, liquids do not ignite. It is in fact the vapours given off from
the surface of the liquids that ignite. Liquids will give off vapours at some temperature. The ability to give off vapours
and the rate at which this occurs defines the volatility of the liquid. The flash point should only be used as an
approximate reference. The liquid may behave differently in the field than in laboratory tests performed to determine
flash points. It is possible for an explosive atmosphere to exist even if the temperature of the environment is below the
flash point of the liquid. The auto-ignition temperature for the liquid vapours is similar to that of gases. A very fine mist
from a hydrocarbon liquid may act as a pure gaseous substance. These aerosols may become an explosive mixture at
temperatures that are far below the liquids flash point. The droplets have to become vapourized but because of the
small volume of the drops the energy required to do this is lowered significantly. The chemicals and hydrocarbon based
liquids typically used by the oil and gas industry also have the potential for creating explosive mixtures including:
(1) Chemicals used for well servicing and stimulations;
(2) Solvents and cleaning agents;
(3) Special compounded hydraulic fluids and lubricants.
In unique circumstances, some solids used by the oil and gas industry may create explosive mixtures. As the solid is
heated it can undergo pyrolysis, a chemical degrading that occurs resulting in a release of vapours. The vapours released
have the ability to form an explosive atmosphere and can ignite. These can include:
(1) Lubricants;
(2) Sealants;
(3) Packings, O rings, diaphragms and valve seats;
(4) Paints and coatings.
Combustion is the rapid exothermic oxidation of combustible elements in fuel. Incineration is complete combustion.
Pyrolysis is the destructive distillation, reduction or thermal cracking and condensation of organic matter under heat
and pressure in the absence of oxygen. Partial pyrolysis, or more commonly called starved-air combustion is incomplete
combustion and occurs when insufficient oxygen is provided to satisfy the combustion requirements. Wet oxidation is a
form of incomplete combustion that occurs under high temperatures and pressures. Oxygen requirements for a complete
combustion of a material may be determied from knowledge of its constituents, assuming that carbon and hydrogen are
oxidized to the ultimate end products: carbon dioxide(CO2) and water (H2O). The formula becomes,
CxOyHwNz + (x + 0.25w 0.50y)O2 xCO2 + 0.5wH2O + 0.5zN2
[1.01]
The theoretical quantity of air required will be 4.35 times the calculated quantity of oxygen because air is composed of
23% oxygen on a weight basis. To ensure complete combustion, excess air amountin to about 50% of the theoretical
amount will be required.
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[1.02]
For actual ethane flame products the chemical equilibrium is given by,
C2H6 + 3.5O2 0.81CO2 + 2.12H2O + 0.19CO + 0.42H2 + 0.59OH +
[1.03]
Adiabatic implies that the enthalpy variation (H) between reagents and products is null. Therefore, for a reacting
system,
ni H i reactants= n i H i products
[1.04]
where
Tf
H i= H fi c pidT
[1.05]
T0
Substituting Equation [1.05] into Equation [1.04] and taking the reactants at initial temperature (T0),
Tf
[1.06]
T0
The final temperature (Tf) depends on the enthalpy variation (Hf) of both reactants and products: the number of
moles (ni) of both reactants and products, and the heat capacities (cpi) of products only. Table 1.01 present some
adiabatic flame temperatures for some combustible gas.
Table 1.01 Typical adiabatic flame temperatures (Kelvin degrees) and flame speed for combustible gases.
Combustible
Gas
Hf
Moles of
Adiabatic
(Kcal
(Kcalmol ) Oxygen (O2) Temperature (Tf)
1
Flame Speed
(cm
(cms1)
Carbon Monoxide
26.42
0.5
2,977
29
Methane
17.90
2.0
3,054
43
Hydrogen
0.00
0.5
3,080
170
Ethane
20.20
3.5
3,086
44
Propane
24.80
5.0
3,096
46
Butane
29.80
6.5
3,101
45
Benzene
19.80
7.5
3,136
48
Acetylene
54.20
2.5
3,342
144
Products and oxygen (O2) are very similar for both fuels; the main variations being in the number of moles (n i) and
enthalpy (Hf) of the fuel. Therefore, the adiabatic flame temperature (Tf) values depend primarily on enthalpy of the
fuel (reactant). Alkanes have very similar heats of formation, their adiabatic flame temperatures are constant.
Flame Speed
The flame speed is controled by the chemical kinetics of combustion. Ideal flames stoichiometric for methane is given
by,
PA G E 8
[1.07]
[1.08]
A general solution of the energy and species conservation equations leads to an equation which correlates flame speed
with thermal diffusivity dependency,
1
S L=
=
c p
1
2
[1.09]
Thus, the flame speed is dependent on the thermal diffusivity, the reaction rate and the density of the reacting gases.
The pressure dependence is,
S L ~ P
1
n2 2
[1.10]
mb=S L ~P
n
2
[1.11]
SL
1
2
~10
E
RT f
[1.12]
From Table 1.01 we can see that flame speed does not necessarily correlate with enthalpy (Hf) or with adiabatic flame
temperature (Tf). Typical flame speeds for hydrocarbons are between 40 cms1 and 50 cms1.
Detonation
A detonation is chemical driven shock wave in a mixture or between exothermic material. Detonation temperatures are
similar to combustion temperatures: ~ 2,500K in air or greater than 3,000K in pure oxygen. Detonation velocity is
primarily a function of product conditions,
D=
2
2R2T 2
1
[1.13]
Typical detonation velocities are around 103 ms1; detonation pressures are between 20 atm and 40 atm. Detonation
pressure and detonation velocity are dependent on final products characteristics: molecular weight and temperature.
Table 1.02 Differences between typical magnitude ratios detonation and deflagration.
Magnitude Ratios
Burned Gas Velocity / Speed of Sound
Detonation Deflagration
5 10
0.0001 0.03
0.4 0.7
4 106
13 55
0.98 0.976
8 21
4 16
1.4 2.6
0.06 0.25
PA G E 9
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For methane, the maximum detonation is accomplished by using the following chemical stoichiometric,
CH4 + O2 0.09CO2 + 0.86H2O + 0.90CO + 1.05H2 +
[1.14]
In Table 1.02 is shown typical magnitude ratios for detonation and deflagration.
SOURCES
OF
OX Y G E N
It is widely understood that air (which contains approximately 21% oxygen by volume) when mixed in the correct
proportions with a hydrocarbon it forms an explosive mixture. This can occur when air is deliberately used, or when it is
inadvertently trapped in piping, vessels, and wellbores. There are several ways that oxygen can form explosive mixtures
with hydrocarbons:
(1) Planned air introduction during air-based operations or when piping and vessels are purged with air.
(2) Introduction of air during underbalanced operations or operations that create a vacuum (i.e. swabbing).
(3) Pockets of air created during the installation and servicing of equipment.
(4) The use of oxidizing chemicals (i.e. Persulphates).
A number of potential sources of oxygen are not well understood or obvious and deserve further explanation.
IGNITION SOURCES
Once the fuel and oxygen are present, an ignition source is needed to complete the fire triangle (see Figure 1.01).
Hydrocarbons can be ignited in two ways. The first is if the temperature is raised above the auto-ignition temperature
then ignition will result. An example of this is the compression ignition of a diesel engine. Forced ignition (i.e. external
or piloted) is the most common form of accidental ignition. An external ignition source is classified as anything that can
deliver enough energy in the form of heat to ignite a substance. This category includes such sources as open flames,
electric arcs and sparks and mechanical sparks.
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
proximity. The size or intensity of arcs and sparks depends on the resistance of the substance between the points of
discharge. Once the voltage is high enough to overcome the dielectric strength of the air, the air will ionize allowing
a conductive path for electricity to flow. Due to the high resistivity of air there will generally be enough energy
dissipated to ignite a flammable vapour. The current or amount of electricity that is flowing will dictate the
temperature of the arc. The higher the current, the higher the temperature. Even arcs with lower currents generate
enough heat energy that the likelihood of ignition is high. Some common examples of arcs and sparks as an ignition
source are sparking of electric motors and generators or from other electrical rotating equipment, arcing between
contacts (i.e. switches and relays), arcs due to broken and inadequate or failed insulation, lightning strikes,
discharge of a charged capacitor through a gas, poor contacts between conductors (i.e. such as poorly fitted light
bulbs and their sockets), arcs intentionally created during electric welding. Many of these ignition sources can be
created during hot work, which is defined as an operation that can produce enough heat from flame, spark or other
source of ignition, with sufficient energy to ignite flammable vapours, gases, or dust. Welding, cutting, grinding,
brazing, flaming, chipping, air gouging, riveting, drilling, and soldering are all forms of hot work that can create
sparks or high temperatures.
Mechanical sparks occur when there is excessive friction between metals or extremely hard substances. As the two
substances rub against each other small particles are torn off of the surfaces. The tearing of these small particles is
due to the large amount of friction. For the metal to spark it must satisfy three conditions:(1) the energy, which
supplies the tearing off of the particles, must also be sufficient to heat the metal to high temperatures (if it is a softer
metal then it will usually deform before it will spark); (2) for a metal to spark it must be able to oxidize and burn
easily, generally the temperature at which a metal sparks is the same as its burning temperature; (3) the specific
heat of a metal is the last factor.A(ametal that has a low specific heat will reach a higher temperature for the same
amount of energy input).
Hot surfaces. Surfaces that exceed the minimum autoignition temperature of a hydrocarbon have the potential to
ignite hydrocarbon vapours. Experience shows that hot surfaces must exceed the minimum auto-ignition
temperature by a substantial margin to cause ignition.
Pyrophoric iron sulphides. Pyrophoric iron sulphides form when iron is exposed to hydrogen sulphide, or any other
compound that contains sulphur, in an oxygen deficient atmosphere. They are frequently found in vessels, storage
tanks, and sour gas pipelines. Pyrophoric iron sulphides present a hazard when equipment and tanks are opened for
cleaning, inspection, and maintenance. As the iron sulphides compounds dry out and come in contact with air, they
react with the oxygen and spontaneously ignite.
Pressure (compression ignition) can occur when gases are compressed. Heat is generated, or more accurately, energy
is transferred. If the rate of heat generation within a system exceeds the rate of heat loss (energy transfer) to the
surroundings, the temperature of the system will rise. If the rate of compression is rapid enough such that the heat
loss may be considered negligible, resulting in adiabatic compression, the temperature rise will depend on the
compression ratio.
Sudden decompression of air-hydrocarbon mixtures, particularly air-liquid hydrocarbon mixtures, is not well
understood. Some of the compounds present are highly unstable especially when subjected to sudden pressure and
temperature changes. Decomposition of such products can yield significant energy rapidly and may provide an
ignition source for the air-hydrocarbon mixture. In addition, during sudden decompression of air-hydrocarbon
mixtures, the release of dissolved gases within the liquid hydrocarbons may atomize the liquid hydrocarbons thus
enhancing their reactivity.
Natural suppressants are frequently used in oilfield operations that affect the probability of ignition. These include:
(1) Water (including formation water);
(2) Inert Gases;
(3) Thickening agents;
(4) Salts;
(5) Detergents.
These suppressants may unknowingly aid in the prevention of fire and explosions during drilling and completion
operations. This may explain why fire and explosions do not occur more frequently.
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Adiabatic Compression
Frictional and Mechanical Sparks
8%
10 %
10 %
8%
12 %
Hot Surfaces
22 %
22 %
Figure 1.02 Common causes of types of ignition sources identified in oil and gas industry.
IN
H O T S U R FA C E C O M B U S T I O N S
Hot surface oxidations are commonly thought to involve initial free radical hydrogen atom abstraction. Evidence
implicates initial Lewis base deprotonation by atomic oxygen radical anions (O) to form negatively charged
carbanions. Subsequent rate determining electron transfers generate free radicals which only then give rise to
combustion. Correlations regarding ignition temperatures and hydrocarbon oxidation product identity are consistent
with carbanionic but not free radical effects. Highly polarized surfaces (e.g. quartz and corroded surfaces), and addition
of polar compounds to fuel and air mixtures facilitate ignitions. For seemingly uniformly hot surfaces there are transient
widely disparate high temperature incandescent red spot zones due to flameless oxidations induced by concentrated
electrostatic negative charges at surface defects. Isotope, ignition temperatures and combustion trends are consistent
with Seebeck effects: ease of electron migration in unevenly heated areas. There are preliminary though not yet verified
indications that electrostatic charges on hot surfaces may facilitate combustion. Implications would then involve fire
mitigation and enhancement, and industrial manufacture of many important organic combustion products. In selective
(flameless) oxidations of hydrocarbons, CH bonds rupture with insertion or addition of oxygen species to form
combustion products. In total oxidation (with or without flame), the hydrocarbon is completely oxidized to carbon
dioxide (CO2) and water (H2O). Fuel flammability indices include flash points (the minimum temperatures for liquid
fuels to sustain sufficient vapor concentrations in air to produce ignition when an open flame is passed over the surface),
and hot surface ignition, or autoignition temperature (with no open flame for a surface in contact with a given fuel
causing self-sustained combustion). Currently accepted hydrocarbon (RC) oxidation mechanisms involve free radical
attack by oxygen species such as the atomic oxygen radical anion (O ) on CH bonds, to yield propagating alkyl free
radicals and hydroxide ion,
RCH + O RC + OH
[1.15]
The following sequence of events to explain hydrocarbon oxidation on hot surfaces is speculated:
(1) The fuel drop vaporizes, cooling the immediate impact area of the hot surface. Fuel concentrations within the cloud
are initially above the upper flammability limit.
(2) Within the fuel cloud there is initial flameless oxidization, forming carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO 2),
and water (H2O) and further reducing oxygen (O2) levels. Heating causes thermal eddies and convection currents,
effecting isolated contiguous hotter and cooler surface areas. Within hotter areas oxidation rates are enhanced to
PA G E 12
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e-
h++
"Cold Side"
"Hot Side"
h+
e--
Figure 1.03 Polarization by Seebeck effect for negative n-type metals and positive p-type coefficient metals.
[1.16]
A high energy rate determining electron transfer from the carbanion to the hydroxyl free radical then results in an alkyl
free radical (RC) and hydroxide anion (OH),
RC + OH RC + OH
[1.17]
The same products arise, but through a much lower energy ionic pathway before proceeding into a higher energy free
radical mechanism, and the same isotope effects apply for both free radical and ionic pathways. In the solvated state,
hydrocarbon pKA values are about 62, but when unsolvated and at elevated temperatures these are much stronger
Brnsted acids with much lower pKA values, and in the presence of a strong base such as the unsolvated atomic oxygen
radical anion adsorbed on a hot surface, an acid-base interaction would be expected to occur.
PA G E 14
The term smoke is defined in this chapter as the smoke aerosol or condensed phase component of the products of
combustion. This differs from the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) definition of smoke, which
includes the evolved gases as well. Smoke aerosols vary widely in appearance and structure, from light colored, for
droplets produced during smoldering combustion and fuel pyrolysis, to black, for solid, carbonaceous particulate or soot
produced during flaming combustion. A large fraction of the radiant energy emitted from a fire results from the black
body emission from the soot in the flame. The effects of the smoke produced by a fire depend on the amount of smoke
produced and on the properties of the smoke. The following section presents experimental results on smoke emission for
a variety of materials. The smoke emission, together with the flow pattern, determines the smoke concentration as
smoke moves throughout a building or a contained space. The most basic physical property of smoke is the size
distribution of its particles.The smoke properties are primarily determined by the smoke concentration and the particle
size distribution. Smoke emission is one of the basic elements for characterizing a fire environment. The combustion
conditions under which smoke is produced (i.e. flaming, pyrolysis, and smoldering) affect the amount and character of
the smoke. The smoke emission from a flame represents a balance between growth processes in the fuel-rich portion of
the flame and burnout with oxygen. While it is not possible at the present time to predict the smoke emission as a
function of fuel chemistry and combustion conditions, it is known that an aromatic polymer, such as polystyrene,
produces more smoke than hydrocarbons with single carbon-carbon bonds, such as polypropylene. The smoke produced
in flaming combustion tends to have a large content of elemental (graphitic) carbon. Pyrolysis occurs at a fuel surface as
a result of an elevated temperature; this may be due to a radiant flux heating the surface. The temperature of a
pyrolyzing sample (between 600K to 900K), is much less than the gas phase flame temperature (between 1,200K to
1,700K). The vapor evolving from the surface may include fuel monomer, partially oxidized products, and polymer
chains. As the vapor rises, the low vapor pressure constituents can condense, forming smoke droplets appearing as lightcolored smoke. Smoldering combustion also produces smoke droplets, but in this case the combustion is self-sustaining,
whereas pyrolysis requires an external heat source. While most materials can be pyrolyzed, only a few materials,
including cellulosic materials (wood, paper, cardboard) and flexible polyurethane foam, are able to smolder. The
temperature during smoldering is typically 600K to 1,100K. In Table 1.03 the smoke conversion factor () is given for a
variety of materials commonly found in buildings. The quantity is defined as the mass of smoke produced by mass of
fuel burned.
Table 1.03 Smoke production for wood and plastics.
Type of Material
Diugla Fir
0.03 0.17
Pyrolysis
0.005
Douglas Fir
0.01 0.25
Flaming
0.005
Polyvinylchloride
0.03 0.12
Pyrolysis
0.005
Polyvinylchloride
0.12
Flaming
0.005
Polyurethane (flexible)
0.07 0.15
Pyrolysis
0.005
Polyurethane (flexible)
0.01 0.035
Flaming
0.005
Polyurethane (rigid)
0.06 0.19
Pyrolysis
0.005
Polyurethane (rigid)
0.09
Flaming
0.005
Polypropylene
0.12
Pyrolysis
0.005
Polypropylene
16
Flaming
0.005
0.01 0.12
Smoldering
0.02
Cellulosic Insulation
The references cited in Table 1.03 should be consulted regarding the detailed description of the combustion conditions.
In many instances, the conversion factor () was measured for a range of radiant fluxes, oxygen concentrations, sample
orientations, and ambient temperatures. It is seen in Table 1.03 that s has a greater range for flaming combustion, with
values in the range 0.001 to 0.17, compared to pyrolysis and smoldering, with values in the range 0.01 to 0.17. The
following factors should be taken into account when using this table for smoke emission estimates:
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(1) Most of the measurements reported in Table 1.03 were made on small-scale samples.
(2) Most experiments were for free burning at ambient conditions (reduced ventilation can strongly affect the smoke
production).
(3) In transport, the smoke may coagulate, partially evaporate, and deposit on surfaces through diffusion and
sedimentation. Also, additional smoke may be formed through condensation.
SIZE DISTRIBUTION
Smoke particle size distribution, together with the amount of smoke produced, primarily determines the properties of the
smoke. A widely used representation of the size distribution is the geometric number distribution,
N
versus
logd
Log (d), where d represents the particle diameter. The quantity N represents the number of particles per cubic
centimeter (cm3), with diameter between Log (d) and Log (d) + Log (d). For many applications, the most important
characteristics of a size distribution are the average particle size and the width of the distribution. A widely used measure
of the average size is the geometric mean number diameter (dgn), defined by,
n
log d gn =
i=1
N ilogd i
N
[1.18]
where N is the total number concentration (total number of particles), Ni is the number concentration in the ith interval,
and log is the logarithmic function to the base 10. The corresponding measure of the width of the size distribution is the
geometric standard deviation (g),
1
2
[1.19]
A perfectly monodisperse distribution would correspond to geometric standard deviation unity (g= 1). The parameters
dgn and g are useful because actual size distributions are observed to be approximately log-normal, which is the same as
a normal or Gaussian distribution, except that Log (d) is normally distributed instead of particle diameter (d). An
important characteristic of the log-normal distribution is that 68.3 percent of the total particles are in the size range Log
dgn + Log g. To correlate the smoke volume-particle size distribution, the geometric mean volume diameter (dgv) is a
convenient measure of average particle size,
n
V ilog d i
log d gv = i =1
[1.20]
VT
where VT is the total volume concentration of the smoke aerosol. For a log-normal distribution, there is the following
relationship between the geometric mean volume diameter (dgv) and the geometric mean number diameter (dgn),
[1.21]
Some devices, such as an ionization-type smoke detector, have an output depending primarily on geometric mean
number diameter (dgn), while others, such as light-scattering-type detectors, have an output depending more on
geometric mean volume diameter (dgv). More than one instrument is necessary for a complete characterization of the
smoke size distribution, because it is typically quite wide. Smoke measurements pose special problems because of the
high concentration, wide particle size range, and sometimes high temperature. In selecting an instrument it is important
to make the following considerations:
(1) Will the instrument respond to the smoke of interest? For example, the piezoelectric mass monitor does not respond
well to soot.
(2) Will dilution of the smoke be required?
(3) Is the measurement size range of the instrument adequate?
PA G E 16
Smoke aerosols are dynamic with respect to their particle size distribution function. Smoke particles or droplets
undergoing Brownian motion collide and stick together. The result of this behavior is that, in a fixed volume of
smokeladen gas, the number of particles decreases while the total mass of the aerosol remains unchanged. This process is
known as coagulation. The fundamental parameter for describing coagulation is the coagulation coefficient () the rate
constant for the coagulation equation,
dN
2
=N
dt
[1.22]
N=
N0
1N 0t
[1.23]
For smoke produced from incense sticks, coagulation coefficient () was found to be about 41010 cm3s1 and about
1109 cm3s1 for smoke produced from flaming -cellulose. The coagulation process has a more pronounced effect on
the number distribution than the mass distribution as small particles collide to form larger particles.
S M O K E P R O P E RT I E S
The smoke properties of primary interest to the fire community are light extinction, visibility, and detection. The most
widely measured smoke property is the light extinction coefficient. The physical basis for light extinction measurements
is Bouguers law, which relates the intensity (I0) of the incident monochromatic light of wavelength () and the
intensity of the light (I) transmitted through pathlength (L) of the smoke,
I KL
=e
I 0
[1.24]
where K is the light extinction coefficient. When Equation [1.24] is expressed in terms of base 10,
I
=10DL
0
I
[1.25]
D=
K
2.3
[1.26]
The extinction coefficient (K) is an extensive property and can be expressed as the product of an extinction coefficient
per unit mass (Km) and mass concentration of the smoke aerosol (m),
K =K mm
[1.27]
The specific extinction coefficient (Km) depends on the size distribution and optical properties of the smoke through the
relation,
PA G E 17
FIRE
d max
AND
E X P L O S I O N H A Z A R D S A N A LY S I S
3
1 m
d
K m=
Q , n d
2m d d d ext r
min
[1.28]
The single particle extinction efficiency (Qext) is a function of the ratio of particle diameter to wavelength of light and of
the complex refractive index of the particle (nr). The quantity prepresents the particle density. Mulholland has described
the general design of a light extinction instrument that satisfies Bouguers law. Two key features are the use of
monochromatic light and the elimination of forward scattered light at the detector. The specific optical density (Ds) is
measured in a standard laboratory smoke test for assessing the amount of visible smoke produced in a fire. The
dimensionless quantity Ds is defined by,
D s=
DV c
A
[1.29]
where Vc is the volume of the chamber, and A is the area of the sample. This is a convenient quantity to measure if the
decomposed area is well defined. Since specific optical density (Ds) depends on the sample thickness, the same thickness
should be used for relative rating of materials tested. If the mass loss of the sample is measured, then the mass optical
density (Dm) is the appropriate measure of visible smoke,
D s=
DV c
M
[1.30]
This technique requires an accurate measurement of the mass loss of the sample (M) in addition to a light extinction
measurement. The extinction coefficient, in turn, is related to visibility through the smoke, as discussed below.
Visibility
Visibility of exit signs, doors, and windows can be of great importance to an individual attempting to survive a fire. To
see an object requires a certain level of contrast between the object and its background. For an isolated object
surrounded by a uniform, extended background, contrast, can be defined as,
C=
B
1
B0
[1.31]
where B is the brightness or luminance of the object, and B 0 is the luminance of the background. For daylight
conditions, with a black object being viewed against a white background, a value of C = 0.02 is often used as the
contiast threshold at which an object can be discerned against the background. The visibility of the object (S) is the
distance at which the contrast is reduced to 0.02. Most visibility measurements through smoke have relied on test
subjects to determine the distance at which the object was no longer visible rather than the actual measurement of
contrast (C) with a photometer. Visibility depends on many factors, including the scattering and the absorption
coefficient of the smoke, the illumination, whether the sign is light-emitting or light-reflecting, and the wavelength of
the light.
Detection
In addition to their utility for estimating visibility, light extinction measurements are also widely used in characterizing
smoke detector performance. The electrical output of a detector (P) from a lightscattering or ionization-type smoke
detector can be represented as an integrated product of the size distribution function and the basic response of the
detector, R(d).
d max
P= R
d min
d N
d
d
[1.32]
The ionization-type smoke detector is more sensitive to smoke particles smaller than about 0.3 m, and the lightscattering type more sensitive to particles larger than 0.3 m. The basic principle of ionization detectors is the
PA G E 18
R d =cd
[1.33]
where c has a value of 7 in units of V per particle concentration per m(Vcm3m1). Such detectors tend to be
most sensitive to high concentrations of small particles, such as those produced by flaming paper and wood fires, and
least sensitive to the low concentration of large smoke droplets produced in smoldering fires. Light-scattering smoke
detectors have a high sensitivity to smoke particles with diameters approximately equal to the wavelength of light (),
and low sensitivity to particles much smaller than the wavelength (). The response function, R(d), depends on the
wavelength of the light source in the smoke detector, the scattering angle, and the scattering volume. For smoke
particles with diameter greater than about 0.3 m, the output of several light-scattering smoke detectors was found to be
approximately proportional to the mass concentration of the smoke. Light-scattering detectors complement ionization
detectors in that they have high sensitivity to smoldering fires and low sensitivity to low-smoking flaming fires, such as
paper and wood fires. The purpose of smoke detectors is to give the occupants of a given space or room adequate
warning to escape a developing fire.
DUST EXPLOSION
Dust is readily ignited and can burn fiercely or explode. Spontaneous combustion can occur, so dust should be kept
under control. Environments should be regularly cleaned to avoid the risk of fire. A wise solution can prevent a loss of
lives, money and downtime. Combustible particulate solids are defined as any combustible solid material, composed of
distinct particles or pieces, regardless of size, shape, or chemical composition. Combustible dust can also be defined as
a combustible particulate solid that presents a fire or deflagration hazard when suspended in air or some other oxidizing
medium over a range of concentrations, regardless of particle size or shape. Why the distinction between a combustible
particulate solid and combustible dust? Even though a combustible particulate solid might not ignite readily or be
capable of being suspended in air in its particulate form (the pieces could be too large), the material can break down
during such activities as shipping, handling, conveying, mixing, and pulverizing. It will then become an immediate
hazard in its dust form if a source of ignition is available. Pneumatic conveying equipment and dust control exhaust
systems that transport combustible particulate solids need to be protected from fire and dust explosions. Combustible
particulate solids that have settled onto surfaces such as floors, platforms, suspended ceilings and building structural
members as well as inside pipes and ducts can burn if exposed to a source of ignition. If combustible particulate solids are
thrown into the workplace air during cleaning or by excessive drafts in the plant, the resulting combustible dust can
present a fire or deflagration hazard if exposed to an ignition source. If the concentration of suspended combustible
solids is above the minimum explosion concentration (MEC) and the source of ignition produces energy above the
minimum ignition energy (MIE), the dust will ignite. If the combustible dust is in a confined space such as in a room,
silo, bin, filter-receiver, dust collect or or cyclone, the burning dust can produce enough pressure for a deflagration to
occur.
H A Z A R D S A S S O C I AT E D W I T H C O M B U S T I B L E D U S T S
Industrial dust explosions have been a risk for as long as man has been processing, storing and transporting materials.
The amount of heat generated during an explosion results in extremely high pressures damaging process equipment,
halting production, and placing personnel at risk of serious injury or worse. And if the explosion is allowed to propagate,
subsequent explosions can occur, often with catastrophic results. Preventing the buildup of dust is one of the key means
for controlling fire and explosion hazards. The principal engineering control technology for control of dust is exhaust
ventilation. The primary work practice control is good housekeeping. In February 1999, a deadly fire and explosion
occurred in a foundry in Massachusetts. The Occupational Safety Health Administration (OSHA) and state and local
officials conducted a joint investigation of this incident. The joint investigation report indicated that a fire initiated in a
shell molding machine from an unknown source and then extended into the ventilation system ducts by feeding on
heavy deposits of phenol formaldehyde resin dust. A small primary deflagration occurred within the ductwork,
dislodging dust that had settled on the exterior of the ducts. The ensuing dust cloud provided fuel for a secondary
explosion which was powerful enough to lift the roof and cause wall failures. Causal factors listed in the joint
investigation report included inadequacies mainly in the following area of housekeeping to control dust accumulations.
In January 2003, devastating fires and explosions destroyed a North Carolina pharmaceutical plant that manufactured
PA G E 19
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E X P L O S I O N H A Z A R D S A N A LY S I S
rubber drug-delivery components. Six employees were killed and 38 people, including two firefighters, were injured. The
United States Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board (CSB), an independent Federal agency charged with
investigating chemical incidents, issued a final report concluding that an accumulation of a combustible polyethylene
dust above the suspended ceilings fueled the explosion. The Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board (CSB) was
unable to determine what ignited the initial fire or how the dust was dispersed to create the explosive cloud in the
hidden ceiling space. The explosion severely damaged the plant and caused minor damage to nearby businesses, a home,
and a school.
In February 2003, a Kentucky acoustics insulation manufacturing plant was the site of another fatal dust explosion: 7
killed, 37 injured. The Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board (CSB) also investigated this incident. Their
report cited the likely ignition scenario as a small fire extending from an unattended oven which ignited a dust cloud
created by nearby line cleaning. This was followed by a deadly cascade of dust explosions throughout the plant. Finely
dispersed airborne metallic dust can also be explosive when confined in a vessel or building. In October 2003, an Indiana
plant where auto wheels were machined experienced an incident: 1 killed, 1 injure. A story similar to the previously
discussed organic dust incidents: aluminium dust was involved in a primary explosion near a chip melting furnace,
followed by a secondary blast in dust collection equipment. In the late 1970s a series of devastating grain dust explosions
in grain elevators left 59 people dead and 49 injured. In response to these catastrophic events, Occupational Safety
Health Administration (OSHA) issued a Grain Elevator Industry Hazard Alert to provide employers, employees, and
other officials with information on the safety and health hazards associated with the storage and distribution of grain.
The lessons learned in the grain industry can be applied to other industries producing, generating, or using combustible
dust. The elements needed for a fire are the following:
(1) Combustible dust (fuel);
(2) Ignition source (heat);
(3) Oxygen in air (oxidizer).
Additional elements needed for a combustible dust explosion are:
(1) Dispersion of dust particles in sufficient quantity and concentration;
(2) Confinement of the dust cloud.
The addition of the latter two elements to the fire triangle creates what is known as the explosion pentagon, as shown
in Figure 1.04. If a dust cloud (diffused fuel) is ignited within a confined or semi-confined vessel, area, or building, it
burns very rapidly and may explode. The safety of employees is threatened by the ensuing fires, additional explosions,
flying debris, and collapsing building components. An initial (primary) explosion in processing equipment or in an area
were fugitive dust has accumulated may shake loose more accumulated dust, or damage a containment system (such as a
duct, vessel, or collector). As a result, if ignited, the additional dust dispersed into the air may cause one or more
secondary explosions. These can be far more destructive than a primary explosion due to the increased quantity and
concentration of dispersed combustible dust. If one of the elements of the explosion pentagon is missing, a catastrophic
explosion can not occur. Two of the elements in the explosion pentagon are difficult to eliminate: oxygen (within air),
and confinement of the dust cloud (within processes or buildings). However, the other three elements of the pentagon
can be controlled to a significant extent.
Everyone wants to assure that their plant is safe to work in. But how do you begin to evaluate the safety conditions in
your plant if it is processing combustible particulate solids? A combustible dust explosion hazard may exist in a variety of
industries, including: food (e.g. candy, starch, flour, feed), plastics, wood, rubber, furniture, textiles, pesticides,
pharmaceuticals, dyes, coal, metals (e.g. aluminium, chromium, iron, magnesium, and zinc), and fossil fuel power
generation. The vast majority of natural and synthetic organic materials, as well as some metals, can form combustible
dust, any industrial process that reduces a combustible material and some normally non-combustible materials to a finely
divided state presents a potential for a serious fire or explosion. Facilities should carefully identify the following in order
to assess their potential for dust explosions:
(1) Materials that can be combustible when finely divided;
(2) Processes which use, consume, or produce combustible dusts;
(3) Open areas where combustible dusts may build up;
(4) Hidden areas where combustible dusts may accumulate;
(5) Means by which dust may be dispersed in the air;
(6) Potential ignition sources.
The primary factor in an assessment of these hazards is whether the dust is in fact combustible. Any material that will
PA G E 20
Energy
(Ignition)
Dispersion of
Dust
Particulates
Confinement of
Dust Cloud
Fire and Explosion
Combustible
Dust
Oxygen Source
(Air)
FIRE
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E X P L O S I O N H A Z A R D S A N A LY S I S
RISK ASSESSMENT
FOR
DUST EXPLOSION
Some of the most destructive explosions have been caused by dust. There is more explosive energy in the dust from
grains such as wheat, barley and corn, than in an equal amount of TNT. While fires are far more common, explosions
are far more costly in terms of loss of life, injury and property damage. Dust explosions have been quite common in the
past. For example, there were 645 explosions in the coal mines of England from 1835 to 1850, in which coal dust was the
major contributing factor. There were 1,085 dust explosions resulting in 351 fatalities, in the United States of America
from 1900 to 1956. Also in the United States of America, among the 15,000 grain handling facilities from 1958 to 1977,
there were 220 dust explosions resulting in 48 deaths and 500 injuries. The potential for a dust explosion has now
become a well recognised hazard. Any combustible solid material which can be dispersed in air as a dust cloud, is
capable of causing a dust explosion. Explosions on record have originated from dusts from the following sources:
(1) Agriculture grain dust, flour, sugar, milk powder, wool, paper, and wood.
(2) Metals aluminium, magnesium, zinc.
(3) Mining coal, combustible sulphide ores.
(4) Chemical industry sulphur, most plastics, pesticides, pharmaceutical's including aspirin and vitamin C.
The Bureau of Mines of the United States Department of the Interior developed an arbitrary scale (see Table 1.04)
based on tests using small amounts of dusts, as a guide to the degree of hazard of each type of dust. There are two terms
used on the scale, the ignition sensitivity (how easy to ignite), and explosion severity (how big a bang).
Table 1.04 Explosion hazard scale for dust.
Explosion
Ignition Sensitivity
Explosion Severity
Weak
< 0.2
< 0.5
Moderate
0.2 1.0
0.5 1.0
Strong
1.0 1.5
1.0 2.0
Severe
> 5.0
> 2.0
The higher the number on each scale the greater the hazard that each dust represents (Table 1.05). A dust explosion is
the very rapid combustion of a dust cloud, to produce a flame and a pressure front. The flame front frequently causes
loss of life, while the pressure front will often cause extensive damage to buildings. With some dusts, there is sometimes
PA G E 22
Ignition Sensitivity
Explosion Severity
Aluminium
7.3
> 10.2
Aspirin
2.4
> 4.3
Coal
2.2
1.8
Coffee Bean
0.1
0.1
Cotton
< 0.1
< 0.1
Egg White
< 0.1
0.2
Flour
2.1
1.8
Grain Dust
2.8
3.3
Magnesium
3.0
7.4
Milk (powdered)
1.6
0.9
Polyethylene
24.0
2.2
Polystyrene
6.0
2.0
Rubber
4.6
1.6
Sugar
4.0
2.4
Sulfur
20.2
1.9
Vitamin C
1.0
2.2
Explosion will produce blast wave, load noise, fly debris and vibration. All these will effect to the human and
environment surrounding the explosion event. The main factor which govern the magnitude peak overpressure in a
blast wave from the detonation in free air are as following: (1) distance of the wave from the center of explosion (D), (2)
the weight of the charge (W), (3) the explosion parameters of the charge. With the assumption, it is pessimistic to
express the relationship between the weight of the explosive charge (W), to the shockwaves effect at a given distance
(D). A common empirical formula which had been widely used to estimate the blast effect of the explosive as follow,
D=ZW 0.33
[1.34]
where Z is the scale factor, D is the distance from the centre of explosion (m), W is the weight of charge in TNT
equivalent mass (kg). Where weight of charge (W) in TNT equivalent mass (kg) could be calculated by the following
equation,
W =MC o
[1.35]
where M is the weight of explosive (kg), and Co is conversion factor for a particular explosive or dust. Since Z is the scale
factor for the overpressure value (P), the overpressure value can be estimated by using this formula,
P=101.3103P s
[1.36]
PA G E 23
FIRE
AND
E X P L O S I O N H A Z A R D S A N A LY S I S
where Ps is the scale overpressure, and P is the overpressure in Pascal (Pa). The explosion overpressures depend on the
peak overpressure that reaches the person. Direct exposure to high overpressure levels may be fatal. The fatality is a
result of the explosion even though the overpressure that caused the structure collapse would not directly result in a
fatality if the person were in a open area. Two blast wave effects to human were estimated there are: fatality and eardrum
rupture. The probit equation for these two effects are as follow in Table 1.06.
Table 1.06 Explosion hazard scale for dust.
Effects
Probit Equation
Human Fatality
Y = 77.1 + 6.91Log(P)
Y = 15.6 + 1.93Log(P)
Where P is the overpressure value in unit Nm2. The load noise is evaluated by use the following equation,
L P =20log
P
20106
[1.37]
Contributing Factors
Dust clouds may be ignited by the effects of mechanical friction such as overheated bearings, motors overheating from
air cooling vents being clogged with dust, particles of steel or stone caught up in grinding machinery producing sparks,
overheated dust coated light bulbs, static electricity, electrical arcing, welding sparks and naked flames. As a general
rule, dusts require 20 to 50 times more energy from an ignition source compared with a flammable vapour, or they need
direct contact with surface temperatures ranging from 300C to 600C. The finer the dust the greater the hazard. Not
only can it be more easily blown into the air, it will stay suspended in air much longer. It has a greater surface area per
unit volume so that it can burn all the more rapidly, increasing the intensity of the flame front and the violence of the
explosion. Dusts like flammable vapours, have lower and upper explosive limits. The lower limit is the concentration of
dust in air to just sustain the flame front. The lower flammability limit ranges from about 10 gmm3 to 40 gmm3
depending on the type of dust. At these concentration it will be quite visible to the naked eye as a fog or cloud. The
upper limit is usually difficult to measure since there appears to be no clear cut-off point. Instead it may, or may not,
ignite at a given concentration. If it does ignite, it tends to leave behind increasing amounts of charred residue.
Concentrations of dust which are potentially explosive are intolerable for people to remain in and are not likely to be
found in the open, however they can be found around machinery used for crushing, grinding, sanding, milling, filtering,
blending, shredding, spray drying, or conveying bulk quantities of solid materials. Why so dangerous? Dust explosions are
dangerous, because they can set off a chain reaction. The initial explosion is usually small and localised, however it is
often sufficient to disturb surrounding dust deposited on floors, roofs, beams, and machinery to form a second much
larger cloud, which in turn can lead to a far more devastating explosion. Further explosions can follow in other parts of
the building or even neighbouring buildings. These explosions may occur seconds or even minutes apart, and have been
described by those who have survived a dust explosion, as sounding like rolling thunder. A fire can then follow from
scattered burning particles, or from other small dust accumulations that have been ignited.
Incidents Involving Dust
The initial explosion need not necessarily be caused by dust. It may only be a small gas or vapour explosion, or even a
mechanical or man-made disturbance sufficient to create a dust cloud. One incident on record involved an explosion of
an air compressor in a wool combers store. It did not hurt anybody, however it triggered a dust cloud, which ignited and
the resultant flame shot right across the room with 18 workers being burned, one fatally. In another, a fitter died after
being enveloped in flame after walking across a 6 metre grating platform. The vibrations from his footsteps created a
cloud of polymethylmethacrylate (a plastic!) dust, which dropped onto a shrink wrapping machine fuelled by an open
propane gas flame.
On the 15th March, 1987, in Harbin, China, an explosion of flax dust triggered a chain of explosionsthat destroyed the
whole 13,000 m2 linen plant, causing 58 deaths and 177 injuries. The strength and time of each explosion was detected
at the nearby earthquake monitoring station.
On the 2nd March, 1982, in the United Kingdom, an articulated lorry carrying 19 tonnes of powdered resin crashed into
a roadside cottage spilling part of its load. A dust cloud was thrown up, which ignited and exploded, setting fire to the
entire load. Noxious fumes from the fire affected the driver, occupants of the cottage, workmen at the nearby building
PA G E 24
The concept of assessing and limiting the risk associated with installing electrical devices in areas where potentially
explosive atmospheres may be present is referred to as area classification. Hazardous area classification assessment is a
probability analysis and risk assessment evaluation of a manufacturing or process area processing a potentially flammable
atmosphere that focuses exclusively on minimizing or eliminating electrical energy as a potential ignition source.
Hazardous area classification is not intended to be a secondary line of defense against poor process design, poor facility
and equipment maintenance, fault equipment operation, or catastrophic vapor releases. Hazardous areas are divided
into three distinct classes that totally depend on the material type that is encountered in the process.
These are locations where flammable gases or vapors are or may be present in the air in quantities sufficient
to produce an explosive or ignitable mixture. In Class I areas that utilize the division concept methodology,
two distinct divisions are predicted on the operational interpretation of normal versus abnormal and frequent
versu infrequent. Division I locations where ignitable concentrations of flammable gases r vapors can exist
sre due to:
(1) Under normal operating conditions.
(2) Frequently because of maintenance or repair.
(3) Frequent leakage.
(4) Below grade where adequate ventilation does not exist.
(5) When releases from faulty process equipment operations result in the simiultaneous failure of equipment and
machinery.
Division II locations here ignitable concentrations of flammable gases or vapors can exist are:
(1) Failure of closed containment systems.
(2) Abnormal operation or failure of processing and ventilation equipment.
(3) Area is adjacent to a Division I location.
In Class I hazardous areas that utilize the division concept methodolog, four distinct groups are based solely on the liquid
or gas ease of ignitability and its corresponding range of flammability or explosivity (ER, range of explosivity in volume
percent):
(1) Group A Atmospheres that contain acetylene (2.5% ER 100%).
(2) Group B Fammable gas (e.g. hydrogen) or vapor atmospheres having either a maximum experimental safe gap
(MESG) less than orequal to 0.4 mm or a minimum ignition current (MIC) ratio less than or equal to 0.40 mm
(4.0% ER 75.0%).
(3) Group C Fammable gas (e.g. ethylene) or vapor atmospheres having either a maximum experimental safe gap
(MESG) greater than 0.45 mmm and less than orequal to 0.75 mm or a minimum ignition current (MIC) ratio
greater than 0.40 mm and less than or equal to 0.80 mm (2.7% ER 36.0%).
(4) Group D Fammable gas (eg. propane) or vapor atmospheres having either a maximum experimental safe gap
(MESG) greater than 0.75 mmm or an minimum ignition current (MIC) ratio greater than 0.80 mm (2.1% ER
9.5%).
The explosive ranges are base on normal atmospheric pressure and temperature. As the mixture temperature increases,
PA G E 25
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E X P L O S I O N H A Z A R D S A N A LY S I S
the flammable range shifts downward. As the mixture temperature decreases, the flammable range shifts upward. It can
be easily determined from examining the above statements that the mixture volatility is much greater for Group A
mixtures compared to Group D. Classes of combustible liquids include Class II which is any liquid with a flash point
greater than 100F (37.8C) and less than 140F (60C). Class III liquids are liquids with a flash point greater than
140F (60C). Class III liquids are further divided as either Class III-A liquids or Class III-B liquids. Class III-A liquids
have flash point greater than 140F ()60C and less than 200F (93.3C). Class III-B liquids have a flash point greater
than 200F (93.3C).
C L A S S II H A Z A R D O U S A R E A S
These are hazardous locations because combustibledust is present. Combustible dust is defined as any solid material 420
microns or less in diameter that present a fie or an explosion hazard when dispersed in air. Like Class I areas, Class II
areas are also divided into two distinct divisions that again depend on operational interpretation of normal versus
abnormal conditions. Division I is a location where combustible dust is present in the air:
Under normal operating conditions, in quantities sufficient to produce an explosive or ignitable mixture.
(1) The dust is electrically conductive. Dusts are considered to be electrically conductive if the electrical resistivity of
the solid material from which the dust is formed has a value of less than 105 cm.
(2) Releases from faulty operation of process equipment result in the simultaneous failure of the electrical equipment,
causing the electrical equipment to become a source of ignition.
Division II is a location where combustible dust is:
(1) Present in the air only under abnormal operating conditions in quantities sufficient to produce an explosive or
ignitable mixture.
(2) Accumulations are normally insufficient to interfere with the normal operation of the electrical equipment or other
apparatus, but combustible dust could be in suspensions in the air due to infrequent process equipment
malfunctions.
(3) Accumulations on, in, or in the vicinity of the electrical equipment could be sufficient to interfere with the safe
dissipation of heat from electrical equipment, or could be ignitable by abnormal operation or electrical equipment
failure.
In Class II areas three distinct goups are based primarily on the physical characteristics of the dust:
(1) Group E Atmospheres that contain combustible metal dusts, including aluminium, magnesium, and their
commercial alloys, or other combusible dusts whose particle size, abrasiveness and conductivity present similar
hazards in the use of electrical equipment.
(2) Group F Atmospheres that contain combustible carbonaceous dusts that have more than 8% total entrapped
volatiles or that have been sensitized by other materials so that they present an explosion hazard. Representative
combustible dusts that fall into this grouping are coal, carbon black, charcoal and coke.
(3) Group G Atmospheres containing other combustible dusts, including flour, grain, wood flur, plastic and chemicals.
Explosion severity is a measure of the damage potential of the energy release by a dust explosion. The United States of
America Bureau of Mines (USBM) has defined the equation for calculating explosion severity (Sexp) as,
S exp=
P maxP State1
P maxP State 2
[1.01]
where Pmax is the maximum explosion pressure (bar), and P is the maximum rate of pressure rise (bars1); subscript
State 1 refers to the values used for Pittsburgh seam coal (Pmax is 8.1 bar, P is 214 bars1), and subscript State 2
refers to the values for the specific dust in question. Ignition sensitivity is a measure of the ease by which a cloud of
combustible dust can be ignited. The United States Bureau of Mines has defined the equation for calculating ignition
sensitivity (Isen) as,
I sens=
T cEM c [ State1 ]
T cEM c [ State2 ]
[1.02]
where Tc is the minimum ignition temperature (C), E is the minimum ignition energy (mJ, milijoule), and Mc is the
PA G E 26
C L A S S III H A Z A R D O U S A R E A S
These are hazardous locations because easily ignitable fibers and flyings are present. In Class III areas, there are no
goupings as in Class I and Class II areas. There are, however, divisions that are based on how the material is processed.
Division I is a location where easily ignitable fibers producing combustible flyings are handled, manufactured or used.
Division II is a location where easily ignitable fibers are stored or handled other than in the manufacturing process.
A R E A C L A S S I F I C AT I O N A S S E S S M E N T
A risk assessment methodology must be developed prior to beginning the actual area classification assessment itself. This
methodology sets the ground rules by which the assessment is conducted. Once the risk assessment methodology is
developed, then the actual process of classifying the area is ready to begin. A typical assssment study will include seven
basic steps:
(1) Step I Obtain the required documentation that was determined from the assessment methodology. Provide a
lower level view of the process for equipment identification and process arrangements.
(2) Step II Field-survey the area in question to determine if the plot plans are accurate and verify location of all point
sourcesof emissions.
(3) Step III Determine the classified area extent that surrounds each point source will play in the overall composite
area classification diagram. The extent of classification diagrams should come from NFPA 497 (National Fire
Protection Association) for petrochemical applications, API RP500 (American Petroleum Institute) for petroleum
refinery applications or gas dispersion modelling software tools. Gas and vapor dispersion modeling software should
be utilized when one out of these three scenarios exists: Extreme process conditions are encountered such as large
flowrates (> 250 gpm), pressures (> 275 psig), and liquids with a vapor pressure above 70 psia at operating
temperature. Combustibe liquids are heated to temperatures above 100F (37.8C) of their respective flash points.
The stream composition is a complex mixture of hydrocarbons.
(4) Step IV Develop the composite area classification plan drawing that embellishes the contribution of all point
sources.
(5) Step V Develop elevation drawingsto provide clarity where here are emission sources located in multilevel process
structures. A lan view will be required for each level in the process structre.
(6) Step VI Conduct the compliance audit.
(7) Step VII Create a detailed assessment report that documents the following informaton: the rationale used to
classify the areas; the critical process material information usuall obtained from the material safety data sheets
(MSDS); a detailed listing of all point sources of emissions that appear on the drawings; special out-of-the-ordinary
exceptions that were taken when classifying a particular location; the results or findings obtained from the
compliance audit; a vapor dispersion modeling graph. All area classification documentation should be placed under
the protection of the facilities management of change process control. As modifications are made to the facility,
these documents should be reviewed to verify the impact of these modifications.
PROTECTION METHODS
AND
HAZARD REDUCTION
Hazard reduction is where a facility reduces the probability or risk of significant property damage and loss of life as the
result of an explosion or a fire. It helps ensure that installing equipment or machinery in a hazardous location does not
significantly raise the risk or probability of an explosion or fire. This is the point where steps are taken to provide
compliance with the area classification assessment. Mitigation options are discussed and corresponding action items are
carried out. In Class I areas it is important to follow the key protection methods:
(1) Physically isolate the hazard by placing or relocating the arc-producing electrical devices to a nonhazardous area;
this is an attractive option when approved equipment for the classified area is not readily or commercially available.
(2) Confining explosion is the most common and widely accepted protection method. It deploys the use of devices that
are vendor-certified, through listing or labeling, as explosion-proof. Explosion-proof means that the device enclosure
is designed and tested in a manner that guarantees if a flammable vapor enters the enclosure and is ignited by an
electrical arc or a hot surface within the enclosure, the resulting explosion is contained within the enclosure. The
electrical apparatus contained within the enclosure should still be operational.
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(3) Energy limiting is known as an intrinsic safety measure, that prevents ignition by limiting the released energy
resulting from wiring and component failures or faults. Underwriters Laboratory (UL) listed intrinsically safe
electrical devices are incapapble of releasing enough energy under normal or abnormal conditions to cause ignition
of a specific hazardous atmosphere in its most easily ignitable concentrations.
(4) Hermetically sealed types of protection ensure that arc or heat-producing devices are sealed against the intrusion of
the hazardous vapor.
(5) Pressurization is the process of supplying an enclosure with a protective gas with or without continuous flow to
prevent the entrance of a flammable vapor, combustible dust or ignitable fiber.
(6) Purging is the process of supplying an enclosure with a protective gas at a sufficient flow and positive pressure to
reduce the concentration of any flammable vapor initially present to a safe level.
In Class II areas it is important to follow the key protection methods:
(1) Physically isolate the hazard in the same manner as for Class I areas.
(2) Utilization of dust ignition-proof equipment requires that the enclosure is dust-tight, and the enclosure is
constructed so that heat generated inside will not ignite a dust layer on or a combustible cloud surrounding the
enclosure.
(3) Purging may be used as long as the NFPA 496 requirements are followed.
(4) Energy limiting is at the same level of protection as in Class I areas.
In Class III areas are employed the same methods that were utilized for Class II areas. The basic requirement is to make
use of dust-tight enclosures for all normal arc-producing electrical devices and electrostatic producing devices.
Amyotte, P., Kahn, F., and Dastidar, A., 2003. Reduce Dust Explosions the Inherently Safer Way, Chemical Engineering
Progress, vol. 99, no. 10, October 2003, pp. 36-43.
Bartknecht, W., 1989. Dust Explosions: Course, Prevention, and Protection, Springer-Verlag.
Bielanski, A., Haber, J., 1991. Oxygen in Catalysis, Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York, 46.
Bielanski, A., Haber, J., 1991. Oxygen in Catalysis, Marcel Dekker, New York, 54.
Bowen, J. E., An Overview: Grain Dust Explosions. Fire Engineering, 136(1983):22,23,25,27.
Britton, L. G., Cashdollar, K. L, Fenlon, W., Frurip, D., Going, J., Harrison, B. K., Niemeier, J., and Ural, E. A., The Role
of ASTM E27 Methods in Hazard Assessment Part II: Flammability and Ignitability, Process Safety Progress, v. 24, pp.
12-28, 2005.
Carey, F. A., 1992. Organic Chemistry, 2nd edition, McGraw-Hill, Inc., New York, p. 4559.
Cashdollar, K. L., Overview of Dust Explosibility Characteristics, Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, v.
13, pp. 183-199, 2000.
Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board (CSB). CSB Investigators Find Likely Source of Dust Explosion at
Indiana Automotive Plant. CSB News Release, Washington, DC, November 5, 2003.
Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board (CSB). Investigation Report: CTA Acoustics, Inc. Combustible Dust
Fire and Explosions. CSB, Washington, DC, September 2004.
Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board (CSB). Investigation Report: West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. Dust
Explosion. CSB, Washington, DC, September 2004.
Cross, J., and Farrer, D., Dust Explosions, New York: Plenum Press, 1982.
Eckhoff, Rolf K., 2003. Dust Explosions in the Process Industries, 3rd Edition, Gulf Professional Publishing.
Finnerty, A. E., 1976. The Physical and Chemical Mechanisms Behind Fire-Safe Fuels, BRL-1947, Ballistic Research
Labs, Abderdeen Proving Ground, MD.
Fire Protection Handbook, Ed., McKinnon GP, 14th ed., 1976, NFPA, Boston, Mass.
FM Global, Prevention and Mitigation of Combustible Dust Explosions and Fire, Data Sheet No. 7-76, January 2005.
Frank, Walter. Dust Explosion Prevention and the Critical Importance of Housekeeping, Process Safety Progress, vol.
23, no. 3, September 2004, pp. 175-184.
Hatwig, M., and Steen, H. (eds.), Handbook of Explosion Prevention and Protection, Wiley-VCH, 2004.
Hodnett, B. K., 2000. Heterogeneous Catalytic Oxidation, John Wiley & Sons, New York.
March, J., 1992. Advanced Organic Chemistry, 4th edition, McGraw-Hill Co., New York, NY, 188 , 248-254, 176, 326327.
McCracken, D. J., 1970. Hydrocarbon Combustion and Physical Properties, Ballistic Research Laboratory Report No.
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Chapter 2
ef
INTRODUCTION
Quantitative fire hazard analysis is becoming the fundamental tool of modern fire safety engineering practice and is the
enabling technology for the transition to performance-based codes and standards. The tools and techniques described in
this chapter provide an introduction to this topic and the motivation for fire protection engineers to learn more
aboutthe proper application of this technology. Predicted fire hazards are a function of the design fire scenarios analyzed.
Therefore, when performing a fire hazard analysis, it is important to select design fire scenarios thatare challenging
enough to represent a realistic worst case, but not so challenging that the likelihood of occurrence is tooremote. There
are many fire hazard calculations that can be performed with a hand calculator, a simple spreadsheet, or a computer
program. In some cases, these simple methods would not be sufficient, for example, in cases where compartment
geometry is complex, where it is desired to optimize cost or benefit, or where predicted hazard values are very close to
acceptable limits. However, even in these types of cases, simple methods can be used for initial predictions or as a reality
check of results from more complex models. In any engineering analysis, it is incumbent on the user to understand the
application and limitation of any methods used. This chapter outline a number of simple fire hazard calculation
methods, but the applicability and limitations of the methods were not included. Users are referred to the documents in
reference or in the text for information regarding the applications and limitations of any of the methods included in this
chapter. Available methods to estimate the potential impact of fire can be divided into two categories: risk-based and
hazard-based. Both types of methods estimate the potential consequences of possible events. Risk-based methods also
analyze the likelihood of scenarios occurring, whereas hazard-based methods do not. The goal of a fire hazards analysis
(FHA) is to determine the expected outcome of a specific set of conditions called a fire scenario. The scenario includes
details of the space dimensions, contents, and materials of construction; arrangement of rooms in the building; sources
of combustion air; position of doors; numbers, locations, and characteristics of occupants; and any other details that
have an effect on the outcome of interest. This outcome determination can be made by expert judgment, by
probabilistic methods using data from past incidents, or by deterministic means such as fire models. Fire models include
empirical correlations, computer programs, full-scale and reduced-scale models, and other physical models. The trend
today is to use models whenever possible, supplemented if necessary by expert judgment. Although probabilistic
methods are widely used in risk analysis, they find little direct application in modern hazard analyses. Typically, when the
potential impact of fire is estimated, a hazard basis is used. When probabilities or frequencies are considered, it is usually
in the context of determining whether or not a scenario is sufficiently likely to warrant further analysis. Hazard analysis
can be used for one of two purposes. One is to determine the hazards that are present in an existing or planned facility.
The other use is for design, where trial design strategies are evaluated to determine whether they achieve a set of fire
safety goals. Hazard analysis can be thought of as a component of risk analysis. That is, a risk analysis is a set of hazard
analyses that have been weighted by their likelihood of occurrence. The total risk is then the sum of all of the weighted
hazard values. In the insurance and industrial sectors, risk assessments generally target monetary losses, since these
dictate insurance rates or provide the incentive for expenditures on protection. In the nuclear power industry,
probabilistic risk assessment has been the basis for safety regulation. Here the risk of a release of radioactive material to
the environment is commonly examined, ranging from a leak of contaminated water to a core meltdown. Available fire
hazard calculation methods range from relatively simple equations that can be performed with a hand calculator to
complex methods that require powerful computers, and many methods that fall between.vailable methods to estimate
the potential impact of fire can be divided into two categories: risk-based and hazard-based. Both types of methods
estimate the potential consequences of possible events. Risk-based methods also analyze the likelihood of scenarios
occurring, whereas hazard-based methods do not.
PA G E 30
Performing an fire hazard analysis (FHA) is a fairly straightforward engineering analysis. The steps include the following:
(1) Selecting a target outcome.
(2) Determining the scenario(s) of concern that could result in that outcome.
(3) Selecting an appropriate method(s) for prediction of growth rate of fire effects.
(4) Calculating the time needed for occupants to move to a safe place.
(5) Analyzing the impact of exposure of occupants or property to the effects of the fire.
(6) Examining the uncertainty in the hazard analysis.
(7) Documentation of the fire hazard analysis process, including the basis for selection of models and input data.
Fire hazard analysis can also be used as part of the performance-based design process.
Selecting a Target Outcome
The target outcome most often specified is avoidance of occupant fatalities in a building. Another might be to ensure
that fire fighters are provided with protected areas from which to fight fires in high-rise buildings. The objectives for
such fire hazard analyses (FHA) include the following:
(1) Minimizing the potential for the occurrence of fire.
(2) No release of radiological or other hazardous material to threaten health, safety, or the environment.
(3) An acceptable degree of life safety to be provided for contractor personnel and no undue hazards to the public from
fire.
(4) Critical process control or safety systems are not damaged by fire.
(5) Vital programs are not delayed by fire (mission continuity).
(6) Property damage does not exceed acceptable levels (e.g. 150 million dollars per incident).
An insurance company might want to limit the maximum probable loss to that on which the insurance rate paid by the
customer is based, a manufacturer might want to avoid failures to meet orders to avoid erosion of its customer base, and
some businesses might want to guard their public image of providing safe and comfortable accommodations. Any
combination of these outcomes could be selected as appropriate for an fire hazard analysis (FHA).
AND
Determining the fire source is one of the most important parts of performing a fire hazard analysis. To determine the fire
source, a design fire scenario must be developed. A fire scenario is a set of conditions that defines the development of
fire and the spread of combustion products. Fire scenarios comprise three sets of features: building characteristics,
occupant characteristics, equipment characteristics, material properties and characteristics, environmental
characteristics, and fire characteristics. Building characteristics describe the building features that could affect fire
development and the spread of combustion products. Occupant characteristics describe the state(s) of occupants at the
time of the fire. Equipment characteristics describe the working features of the equipment and machinery that could be
affected in a fire development and combustion situation. Materials properties and characteristics describe the physical
and chemical state(s) of all materials (i.e. liquid, solid, gas, or vapor) including the potential contribution for a
combustion and fire scenario. Environmental characteristics (internal and external) describe the sorrounding features
that could affect the fire development and the spread of combustion products. Fire characteristics describe the ignition
and growth of the fire. A design fire scenario is a set of conditions that defines the critical factors for determining the
outcomes for trial fire protection designs of new buildings ad facilities or modifications to existing facilitiess. Design fire
scenarios are the fire scenarios that are selected to analyze a trial design. They are generally a subset of the fire scenarios.
The design fire scenario is based on a fire that has a reasonable likelihood of developing from a series of events. Fire
scenarios need to be based on reality and should be developed accordingly. For example, the occupancy, the purpose for
which the design is being developed, the fuel load, potential changes in the property, the presence of sprinklers and fire
detection, the presence of alarm and notification systems, and smoke management should be considered. Design fire
scenarios differ by occupancy and should be based on reasonably expected fires and worst-case fires. Although this
chapter deals with hazard-based approaches, some risk must be included in the analysis when developing design fire
scenarios. For instance, if a fire may be technically plausible but is extremely unlikely, that scenario may not be necessary
to include in the design fire scenarios.
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PA G E 32
Developing a Scenario
The first step is to investigate potential fires that might occur so that the design fire scenarios can be chosen. If the
purpose of the scenario is to perform an egress analysis, the worst-case fire may be all that is necessary for evaluation. To
quantify the fire, users might look at the fuel load and estimate the rate of burning, they might look at a set of fire
examples and extrapolate, they might look at fast or ultrafast fires and assume the fire peaks at the estimated sprinkler
(or other automatic fire fighting mechanism) response time, they might assume the rate of the development of fire and
so not have the fire peak at the estimated sprinkler response time, or they might specify sprinklers inside the facility and
limit the fire size. The user would likely try a combination of these factors to see the effects. Once the fire scenario is
developed, smoke-filling calculations can be performed to determine the clear height of a smoke layer over time. Those
calculations would be compared to the timed evacuation analysis. Both calculations would likely start without
suppression or smoke control to see whether the evacuation can occur without those two systems. If so, the analysis is
simplified. Finally, the user would identify bounding conditions via a sensitivity analysis. For instance, is the size of the
facility important? How about the materials of the surroundings and the facility? Has any of the existing fuel been
removed or isolated from the facility? If smoke control is necessary to make the design work, that smoke control needs to
be identified as a critical system. Similarly, the occupant load, the exit sizes, the number of disabled persons, and the
availability of an alarm system as well as its audibility must all be considered in the sensitivity analyses. Once all of these
factors have been considered and dealt with, the hazard-based analysis is complete. The documentation of the analysis is
the next important part and cannot be omitted from any fire hazard analysis. The assumptions, bounding conditions,
scenarios considered, and limitations should be identified to the auhority has jurisdiction (AHJ), the owner, and other
interested parties.
)
erity
(Sev
s
e
c
en
sequ
Con
Safety
Margin
Time (minutes)
10
20
Fire Fighting Brigades
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Quantification of design fire scenarios involves two steps. The first step is to develop the design fire curve for the design
fire scenario or portion of the design fire scenario of interest. The design fire curve represents the heat release rate over
time for the fire in question. Once the design fire curve is estimated, the second step, predicting the fire effects, is then
possible. The purpose of the design fire is similar to the assumed loading in a structural analysis; that is, to answer the
question of whether the design will perform as intended under the assumed challenge. Keeping in mind that the greatest
challenge is not necessarily the largest fire (especially in a sprinklered facility), it is helpful to think of design fires in
terms of their growth. Figure 1.01 represents the timeline response for a given fire after combustion.
D E S I G N F I R E C U RV E S
The design fire curve is a description of the intensity (heat release rate) of a fire as a function of time. The design fire
curve can be divided into four phases: ignition, growth, steady-burning, and decay. Because there is not a single
framework for developing the entire design fire curve, each step is typically developed separately and then brought
together as a single curve. It is not always necessary to quantify each phase of a design fire curve, depending on the goals
of the analysis. For example, to predict when a fire detection or suppression system would activate, it might only be
necessary to quantify the growth phase. For sizing a smoke control system, only the maximum heat release rate might be
needed. A structural analysis might need the peak burning rate and the duration of peak burning. Performing an
evacuation analysis might require quantification of the growth and fully developed stages. The design fire curve starts at
ignition. A simple approach to developing a design fire curve is to assume that an ignition source of sufficient intensity is
available to instantaneously ignite the initial fuel package to establish burning. However, if the heat transfer to a
combustible object or the temperature of the object is known, calculations can be performed to predict whether the
object will ignite. Calculations to determine whether ignition occurs depend on the state of the fuel: solid, liquid, or gas.
Ignition can be divided into two categories: piloted and nonpiloted. In the case of piloted ignition, a pilot such as a
spark or flame initiates flaming. For nonpiloted ignition, flaming occurs spontaneously as a result of heating in the
absence of flame or spark. Except for piloted ignition of gases and liquids that are at a temperature above their
flashpoint, all materials must first be heated before ignition can take place. With the exception of smoldering
combustion, for a solid to ignite it must first be heated sufficiently to release flammable vapors. Flammable vapors can be
given off either by pyrolysis or by melting and subsequent vaporization. Pyrolysis occurs when a material is heated and
decomposes, releasing vapors known as pyrolyzates. Unlike melting and vaporization, in which no molecular changes
occur, the vapors given off are different from the material that was originally heated. The process of pyrolysis can be
viewed as thermal cracking, in which larger molecules are broken into smaller molecules. Piloted ignition occurs if the
concentration of pyrolysis gases is above the lower flammable limit and a pilot is present. For nonpiloted ignition to
occur, the pyrolysis gases must be at a concentration above the lower flammable limit and they must be above their
autoignition temperature. Because of this, it requires less energy for piloted ignition to occur than for nonpiloted
ignition. Methods of predicting ignition of solid materials exposed to thermal radiation differ depending on whether a
solid is thermally thin or thermally thick. A thermally thick material is one in which a temperature rise will not be
perceived on the unexposed surface when the material is heated. Wood is a typical example of a thermally thick
material, whereas sheet metal is a good example of a thermally thin material. An engineering guide published by the
Society of Fire Protection Engineers (SFPE) focusing on piloted ignition contains six methods for predicting the piloted
ignition of solid materials under radiant exposure. For thermally thin materials, the method of Mikkola and Wichman
can be used to calculate the time to ignition (tig, in seconds),
t ig =Lc
T ig T 0
qext q crit
[2.01]
where Tig is the ignition temperature (C), T0 is the initial temperature (C), is the density of the material (kgm3), c
is the specific heat of the material (kJkg1C1), L is the thickness of the material (m), qext is the external heat flux
(kWm2), and q crit is the critical heat flux for ignition (kWm2). For thermally thick materials, the following
methods can be used. Mikkola and Wichman method,
T ig T 0 2
t ig = kc
2
4
qext qcrit
[2.02]
PA G E 34
t ig =
4 qext q min 2
[2.03]
q min
is minimum heat flux for ignition (kWm2). The
q
t ig = min
bqext
[2.04]
for t tm, where b is a constant related to kc (sec) and tm is characteristic time to reach thermal equilibrium (in
seconds). The Janssens method,
q
kc
t ig =0.563
ext 1
2
qcrit
h ig
1.83
[2.05]
where hig is heat transfer coefficient at ignition, which incorporates both the radiative and convective components
(Wm1C1). And finally, theToal, Silcock, and Shields method,
t ig =
n
n
qext qcrit
[2.06]
where n is flux time product, and n is flux time product index is greater than or equal to 1. For a liquid to ignite, it must
be at a temperature that is equal to or greater than its flashpoint. National Fire Protection Agency Fire NFPA 30
standard, Flammable and Combustible Liquids Code, defines flashpoint as the minimum temperature of a liquid at
which sufficient vapor is given off to form an ignitable mixture with air, near the surface of the liquid or within the vessel
used. A number of test methods can be used to measure the flashpoint of a liquid. Flashpoint is not a physical property
and is instead a model of physical phenomena associated with vaporization of a sufficient quantity of fuel to establish a
gaseous mixture that is at the lower flammable limit at a distance above the fuel surface and therefore can change with
the test method employed. Ignition of a liquid at its flashpoint is analogous to piloted ignition of a solid, in that for
ignition to occur, a pilot must be present. The analogy for nonpiloted ignition of liquids would be ignition at the autoignition temperature. Values for flashpoints and autoignition temperatures for some common materials can be found in
National Fire Protection Agency Fire NFPA 497 standard: Recommended Practice for the Classification of Flammable
Liquids, Gases, or Vapors and of Hazardous (Classified) Locations for Electrical Installations in Chemical Process
Areas. For ignition of a flammable gas to occur, it must be mixed with a sufficient quantity of oxygen for a reaction to
take place. Concentrations where this occurs are represented by a flammability range, which corresponds to gas and air
concentrations that are at or above the lower flammable limit and not exceeding the upper flammable limit.
Flammability limits for a variety of gases can be found in National Fire Protection Agency Fire NFPA 497 standard. For
mixtures of flammable gases, Le Chateliers principle can be used to determine the lower flammable limit. Le Chateliers
law states that,
LFL m =
100
P
Li
i
i
[2.07]
where LFLm is the lower flammability limit of the mixture, Pi is the volume fraction of gas, and Li is the lower flammable
limit of gas. Following ignition, a fire might grow as it develops on the first item ignited or spreads to additional items. To
determine whether spread would occur to adjacent items, the problem can be approached from the perspective of
whether or not these items would ignite. For growth involving a single item, the fire could spread to unignited portions
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of the item. This could either lead to the entire item burning, or earlier ignited portions might burn out before the fire
spreads to involve the entire item, such that the entire item is never fully involved.
PREDICTION
OF
FIRE EFFECTS
The primary importance of the appropriate selection of the design fires growth is in obtaining a realistic prediction of
detector and sprinkler activation, time to start of evacuation, and time to initial exposure of occupants. In 1972,
Heskestad first proposed that for the early fire growth period the assumption that fires grow according to a power law
relation works well and is supported by experimental data. He suggested fires of the form,
Q=t n
[2.08]
where Q is he rate of heat release (kW), is the fire intensity coefficient (kWs1), t is the time (in seconds), and n is a
integer number (n = 1, 2, 3). Later, it was shown that for most flaming fires, except flammable liquids and some others,
the value of n is equal to 2, the so-called t-squared growth rate. A set of specific t-squared fires labeled slow, medium,
and fast, with fire intensity coefficients such that the fires reached 1,000 Btus1 (1,055 kW) in 600, 300, and 150
seconds, respectively, were proposed for design of fire detection systems. Later, these specific growth curves and a fourth
called ultrafast, which reaches 1,055 kW in 75 seconds, gained favor in general fire protection applications. This set of
t-squared growth curves is shown in Figure 2.02. The slow curve is appropriate for fires involving thick, solid objects
(e.g. solid wood table, bedroom dresser, or cabinet). The medium growth curve is typical of solid fuels of lower density
(e.g. upholstered furniture and mattresses). Fast fires are thin, combustible items (e.g. paper, cardboard boxes, draperies).
Ultrafast fires are some flammable liquids, some older types of upholstered furniture and mattresses, or materials
containing other highly volatile fuels. These t-squared curves represent fire growth starting with a reasonably large,
flaming ignition source. With small sources, there is an incubation period before established flaming, which can
influence the response of smoke detectors. During this incubation period, the fire may not significantly grow in size,
although smoke would still be produced in quantities potentially sufficient to activate smoke detectors.
6,000
Medium
Slow
Fast
1,000
Steady Burning
Where a fire scenario involves a fire in an enclosure, fire growth might continue until all the combustible items within
the space are involved. Once this occurs, the rate of burning is influenced by one of two factors: (1) the available
ventilation or (2) the available fuel. Calculation of fire temperatures within the space is easily accomplished by use of
simple algebraic equations. Although computer models are frequently used in hazard analyses, they are generally no
more accurate (and indeed may be less accurate) than simple hand calculations for prediction of temperature and
burning rate during fully developed burning. For example, for post-flashover fires, hand calculation methods are
generally used to estimate compartment temperatures. Society of Fire Protection Engineers engineering guide on fire
exposures of structural elements provides calculation methods for predicting fire temperatures and burning rates in fully
developed compartment fires. Some of these methods are based on an assumption of ventilation limited burning, and
others model fuel-controlled conditions. For most cases, the method developed by Law was found to provide bounding
predictions when the factor was not used and the predicted burning duration was increased by a factor of 1.4. Laws
method is as follows,
T =T gm 1e0.05
[2.09]
[ ]
1e
T gm=6,000
0.1A
A0 H 0
[2.10]
A
A0 H 0
0.036A
A0 H 0
W
m f =0.18A0 H 0
1e
D
[2.11]
where T is the bounding temperature of compartment, Tgm is the maximum compartment temperature (C), A is the
surface area of interior of enclosure (m2), A0 is the area of ventilation opening (m2), H0 is the height of ventilation
opening (m), W is the width of wall containing ventilation opening (m), D is the depth of compartment (m), and mf is
the mass burning rate of fuel (kgs1)and. Thus, the factor can be determined by,
Mf
AA0
[2.12]
where Mf is the mass of fuel (kg). Law reports that the correlation for predicting burning rate is valid for the condition,
mf
A0 H 0 W
1
2
60
[2.13]
In some cases, it may only be desired to predict whether flashover is possible for a given fire scenario involving a fire in
an enclosure.
Decay of Fire
All fires eventually decrease in size. A fire can decay for one of three reasons: consumption of available fuel, oxygen
depletion, or suppression. Because the hazards posed during the decay phase are typically insignificant in comparison to
the hazards posed during the fully developed phase, decay is typically omitted from analysis. An exception is in
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calculations involving structural fire resistance of concrete or insulated steel. Where test data are available, they might
include decay. If decay occurs due to the exhaustion of fuel, the expected temperature change as fuel is depleted. For
fires with a predicted duration of less than 60 minutes, a decay rate of 10Cmin1 can be used. In other case, a decay
rate of 7Cmin1 can be used. Decay could also occur in the event that a sprinkler system is present and activated. A
simple assumption is that the fire immediately goes out, but this is not conservative. A National Institute of Standards
and Technology (NIST) study documents a (conservative) exponential diminution in burning rate under the application
of water from a sprinkler. Since the combustion efficiency is affected by the application of water, the use of values for
soot and gas yields appropriate for post-flashover burning would represent the conservative approach in the absence of
experimental data.
Prediction of Flashover
Flashover occurs when a fire grows to such a size that it involves all combustible items within an enclosed space.
Although occurrence of flashover is not a hazard in itself, flashover would affect the occurrence of other hazards.
Several correlations are available to predict the minimum heat release rate necessary for flashover to occur in a enclosed
space. The time at which flashover occurs can be estimated by determining when the fire is predicted to reach this
minimum size. The following methods can be used to predict the minimum heat release rate necessary for flashover.
The method of Babrauskas is given by following the equation,
Q=750A0 H 0
[2.14]
where Q is the minimum heat release rate required for flashover (kW), A0 is the area of opening into compartment (m2),
and H0 is the height of opening into compartment (m). The method of McCaffrey, Quintiere, and Harkleroad, is given
by following set of equations,
1
[2.15]
Q=610 h kATA0 H 0 2
h k=
[2.16]
where k is the thermal conductivity of compartment surface (kWm1K1), is the thickness of compartment surface
(m), and AT is the total area of compartment surfaces (m2). The method of Thomas is given by following the equation,
Q=7.8AT 378A0 H 0
[2.17]
PREDICTION OF HAZARDS
Fire is a dynamic process of interacting physics and chemistry, so predicting what is likely to happen under a given set of
circumstances is daunting. The simplest predictive methods are algebraic equations. Computer models are used to
automate fire hazard calculations and are particularly useful where many repeated calculations must be performed.
S I M P L E F I R E H A Z A R D C A L C U L AT I O N S
Once the design fire curve has been developed, it is then possible to predict the hazards that would result. The types of
hazards that might be of interest include the following:
(1) Radiant heat flux, which affects the potential for ignition of materials and damage to structures or thermal injury to
people.
(2) Smoke production, which dictates the volume of smoke produced.
(3) Fire plume and ceiling jet temperatures and velocities, which could cause weakening of exposed structural elements.
(4) Species production, which affects the rate at which an untenable environment could be created.
(5) Depth of upper layer, which can be used as a surrogate for an untenable environment.
As was the case with the stages of design fire curves, it is not always necessary to quantify all of the hazards that result
PA G E 38
Q r = T 4gas T 4targ
[2.18]
where Q r is the rate of radiant heat transfer (kW), is the emissivity of gas (0 1), and is the StephanBoltzmann constant (5.67 1011 kWm2K4), Tgas is the temperature of gas (K) and Ttarg is the temperature of target
(K). The equation is only applicable for instantaneous calculations, as the temperature of the target will rise as a
function of the thermal radiation that it receives.
Smoke Production
When calculating smoke production rates, smoke is usually defined as the products of combustion and the air entrained
into the fire plume. Therefore, the amount of smoke produced is a function of the height above the fire.
Fire Plumes and Ceiling Jet Temperatures and Velocities
A fire will produce a plume of hot gas that will rise and contact the ceiling of a given space (for a compartment or
enclosed space), forming a ceiling jet. Similarly, the temperature and velocity of a ceiling jet can be calculated in
accordance with the following equations,
r
0.18
H
T=
2
16.9Q 3
[2.19]
H3
r
0.18
H
Q
5.38
r
T=
H
r
0.15
H
Q
U =0.96
H
1
3
2
3
[2.20]
[2.21]
PA G E 39
FIRE
AND
E X P L O S I O N H A Z A R D S A N A LY S I S
r
0.15
H
1 1
Q 3H 2
U =0.195
5
r 6
H
[2.22]
where T is the temperature rise over ambient (C), U is the ceiling jet velocity (ms1), H is the height above fire (m),
is the total heat release rate (kW). When using these
r is the horizontal distance from fire centerline (m), and Q
equations, it must be cautioned that they are only valid for horizontal, unobstructed ceilings where there is no smoke
layer present. In cases where a layer forms, higher temperature rises can be expected.
Species Production
Fires can create a number of products of combustion that can be toxic or corrosive, including carbon dioxide (CO2),
water vapor (H2O), carbon monoxide (CO), and many others that vary with the fuel and burning conditions. Species
production rates can be calculated from the following equation,
Q
G j = y j
Hc
[2.23]
where G j is the smoke production rate of species j (kgs1), yj is the yield fraction of species j, and Hc is the heat of
combustion of fuel (kJkg1). Yield fractions for several fuels are available in the Society of Fire Protection Engineers
(SFPE) Handbook of Fire Protection Engineering.
Depth of Upper Layer
As smoke is produced in a compartment, it forms a layer that descends as a function of time. This is analogous to filling
a bowl of water. However, it should be noted that the mass production rate of smoke is not constant, since as the layer
descends, the smoke production rate decreases due to the reduced vertical distance available to entrain air into the
plume.
Toxicity
Toxic gases produced by a fire can incapacitate or kill people who are exposed to them. A commonly used approach to
determine whether the fire-induced environment is potentially harmful to people exposed is the fractional effective dose
(FED) model developed by Purser. This can be expressed as follows,
[2.24]
where FINC is the fraction of an incapacitating dose of all asphyxiating gases, FCO is the fraction of an incapacitating dose
of CO, FHCN is the fraction of an incapacitating dose of HCN, FIRR is the fraction of irritant dose, VHYP is the
multiplication factor for carbon doixide (CO2) induced hyperventilation, FLOX is the fraction of an incapacitating dose of
low-oxygen hypoxia, FIDC is the fraction of an incapacitating dose of CO 2. Purser gives the following equations for
calculation of the individual fractional effective doses,
CO1.036
F CO =8.292510
30
4
[2.25]
where |CO| is the concentration of carbon monoxide (CO), expressed in parts per million.
1
F HCN =
10
220
CN
43
[2.26]
where |CN| is the concentration of HCN in parts per million added to the concentration of other nitriles minus the
concentration of NO2, FIRR is the fraction of the incapacitating dose from all incapacitating products (HCl, HBr, etc.).
PA G E 40
V HYF =10
CO 2
5
[2.27]
F LOX =
1
[8.130.54 20.9O 2]
10
[2.28]
F IDC =
1
6.16230.5189CO 2
10
[2.29]
where |CO2| is the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO 2) in percent. It should be noted that the equations for
fractional effective dose (FED) and the components of fractional effective dose are based on a one minute exposure. For
exposures to constant concentrations of fire products, the fractional effective dose (FED) can be determined by
multiplying the value determined using theprevious equations by the exposure time in minutes. For exposures where the
concentrations vary with time, the total fractional effective dose (FED) can be calculated by discretizing the exposure,
i.e. determining the average exposure at each one minute interval and summing the fractional effective dose (FED)
determined for each one minute interval. It should be noted when applying the previous correlations that some
populations are more susceptible than others to fire products (e.g. asthmatics, the old, and the young). Additionally, no
single fractional effective dose (FED) value for design has been widely agreed on even for average populations.
S I M P L E A N A LY T I C A L S O L U T I O N T E C H N I Q U E S
Simple computer programs and spreadsheets can be used to perform simple fire hazard calculations. In the case of the
equations listed previously or referenced in other chapters, this is a relatively straightforward task. However, many fires
and fire effects are not steady state. An example is smoke filling within an enclosure. The smoke production rate is a
function of the smoke layer height, so the rate of smoke layer descent is not constant. In such instances, spreadsheets
can be used to develop solutions to differential equations for which developing an exact solutionis nontrivial. For a
differential equation of the following form,
dy
= f y , t
dt
[2.30]
where the initial value y(t = 0) is y0. The Euler method is a numerical technique for solving differential equations of this
form, and can be stated as,
y n1= y nhf y n ,t n
[2.31]
where yn is the value of equation y at time step n, yn+1 is the value of equation y at time step (n+1), and h is the time
step size. This process can be iterated over the desired length of time to obtain the desired solution. Since the Euler
method determines the value of equation y at time step (n+1) based on the value at time step n and the slope of the
tangent to y at time step n, errors can be introduced based on the nonlinearity of equation y. There are methods
available to reduce this error, such as the improved Euler method. However, another method of reducing the error is to
reduce the size of the time step, recognizing that as the size of the time step approaches zero, the difference between the
predicted value of y and the actual value of y also approaches zero. The computational power offered by modern
computers allows very small time steps to be used and to still get a solution rapidly. It should be noted that the default
for many spreadsheets is to not permit iterative calculations. The spreadsheet views the circular reference as an error.
Spreadsheets for which this is the case would need to be configured to allow iteration. The spreadsheets users manual
or help function can be consulted for assistance.
Example of Application
Thermal detector response can be used to illustrate application of the Euler method to a fire protection problem. This
PA G E 41
FIRE
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E X P L O S I O N H A Z A R D S A N A LY S I S
example uses an algorithm similar to that used by the computer fire model DETACT QS19 to predict the time to
activation of a thermal detector for a heat release rate that follows a power law curve. Two calculations will be
performed. First, the instantaneous ceiling jet velocities are calculated in accordance with Equation [2.19] through
Equation [2.22]. A quasi-steady assumption is made, which means that transport delays from the fire to the detector are
ignored. Then, based on the temperature and velocity of the ceiling jet and the thermal response characteristics of the
sensor (response time index), the temperature change at the detector will be calculated. The change in temperature of
the detector can be expressed as,
dT d U gT g T d
=
dt
d
[2.32]
where Td is the temperature of detector (C), Ug is the ceiling jet velocity at detector (ms1), Tg is the ceiling jet
temperature at detector (C), t is time (in seconds), is the detector response time index (ms). A Euler solution to
this expression can be expressed as,
T d ,n 1T d , n t
U gT g T d , n
d
[2.33]
where Td,n+1 is the temperature of detector at time step (n+1), Td,n is the temperature of detector at time step n, t is
the size of time step (in seconds). Equation [2.33] could easily be programmed into a spreadsheet or simple computer
program, along with the ceiling jet temperature and velocity correlations expressed in Equation [2.19] through Equation
[2.22], to calculate Ug and Tg. It is also necessary to include a method of calculating the heat release rate at each time
step.
COMPUTER MODELS
The key to determining which are appropriate to a given situation and which are not is a thorough understanding of the
assumptions and limitations of the individual model or calculation and how these relate to the situation being analyzed.
Single-space models are appropriate where the conditions of interest are limited to a single, enclosed space. Where the
area of interest involves more than one space, and especially where the area of interest extends beyond a single floor,
multiple-compartment models should be used. This is because the interconnected spaces interact to influence fire
development and flows. Many single-compartment models assume that the lower layer remains at ambient conditions
(e.g. ASET). Since there is little mixing between layers in a enclosed space (unless there are mechanical systems), these
models are appropriate. However, significant mixing can occur in doorways, so multiple-compartment models should
allow the lower layer to be contaminated by energy and mass. The model should include the limitation of burning by
available oxygen. This is straightforward to implement (based on the oxygen consumption principle) and is crucial to
obtaining an accurate prediction for ventilation-controlled burning. For multiple-compartment models, it is equally
important for the model to track unburned fuel and allow it to burn when it encounters sufficient oxygen and
temperature. Without these features, the model concentrates the combustion in the room of origin, overpredicting
conditions there and underpredicting conditions in other spaces. Heat transfer calculations take up a lot of computer
time, so many models take a shortcut. The most common is the use of a constant heat loss fraction, which is userselectable (e.g. ASET or CCFM). The problem is that heat loss can vary during the course of the fire. Another problem
can occur in tall spaces, for example, atria. The major source of gas expansion and energy and mass dilution is
entrainment of ambient air into the fire plume. It can be argued that in a very tall plume, this entrainment is
constrained. However, most models do not include this constraint, which can lead to an underestimate of the
temperature and smoke density and an overestimate of the layer volume and filling rate (in enclosed spaces), the
combination of which may give predictions of available safe egress times that are either greater or less than the correct
value. In the model CFAST, this constraint is implemented by stopping entrainment when the plume temperature drops
to within 1C of the temperature just outside the plume, where buoyancy ceases.
Documentation
Only models that are rigorously documented should be allowed in any application involving public health, safety, or
welfare, such as in code enforcement or litigation. This means that the model should be supplied with a technical
reference guide that includes a detailed description of the included physics and chemistry, with proper literature
referencesa a listing of all assumptions and limitations of the model, and estimates of the accuracy of the resulting
PA G E 42
Input Data
Even if the model is correct, the results can be seriously in error if the data that are input to the model do not represent
the condition being analyzed. The fire hazard analysis (FHA) should include a listing of all data values used, their source
(i.e. what apparatus or test method was employed and what organization ran the test and published the data), and some
discussion of the uncertainty of the data and its result on the conclusions. The National Institute of Standards and
Technologys (NIST) website contains a section of well-documented data for use in calculations, called FASTDATA.
1.5
Nonirritating Smoke Zone
Transient Zone
1.0
0.5
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
Egress Models
The prediction of the time needed by the building occupants to evacuate to a safe area can be performed and compared
to the predicted available safe egress time. Whether the evacuation calculation is done by model or hand calculation, it
must account for several crucial factors. First, unless the occupants see the actual fire, time is required for detection and
notification before the evacuation process can begin. Next, unless the information is compelling (such as seeing the
actual fire), it takes time for people to decide to take action. The action they choose may or may not be evacuation.
Finally, the movement begins. All of these factors require time, and that is the critical factor. No matter how the
calculation is done, all of the factors must be included in the analysis to obtain a complete picture. An excellent
discussion of this topic is found in Society of Fire Protection Engineers' Engineering Guide Human Behavior in Fire.
The process of emergency evacuation of people follows the general concepts of traffic flow. A number of models perform
such calculations and may be appropriate for use in certain occupancies. Most of these models do not account for
behavior and the interaction of people (providing assistance) during the event. The literature reports incidents of
providing assistance to disabled persons, again especially in office settings. If such behavior is expected, it should be
included, as it can result in significant delays in evacuating a building. Crowded conditions, as well as smoke density, can
result in reduced walking speeds. A persons walking speed decreases in dense smoke until he or she moves as if
PA G E 43
FIRE
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E X P L O S I O N H A Z A R D S A N A LY S I S
blindfolded (see Figure 2.03). Care should be exercised in using models relative to how they select the path (usually the
shortest path) that the person travels. Some models are optimization calculations that give the best possible
performance.
A N A LY Z I N G
THE
I M PA C T
OF
EXPOSURE
In most cases, the exposure will be to people, and the methods used to assess the impacts of exposure of people to heat
and combustion gases involve the application of combustion toxicology models. The HAZARD I software package
contains the only toxicological computer model, called TENAB, that is based on research at National Institute of
Standards and Technology on lethality to rats and by Purser on incapacitation of monkeys. TENAB model accounts for
the variation in exposure to combustion products as people move through a building, by reading the concentrations from
the fire model in the occupied space during the time the person is in that space. If the person moves into a space with a
lower concentration of carbon monoxide, the accumulated dose can decrease. Details such as these ensure that the
results are reasonable. Assessing the impact of exposure to sensitive equipment is more difficult, since little data exist in
the literature on the effects of smoke exposure on such equipment. Of particular importance here is the existence of acid
gases in smoke, which are corrosive and especially harmful to electronics. Fuels containing chlorine (e.g. polyvinyl
chlorides) have been studied. However, unless the equipment is close to the fire, acid gases, especially HCl, deposit on
the walls and lower the concentration to which the equipment may be exposed. CFAST in the HAZARD I package
contains a routine that models this process and the associated diminution of HCl concentration.
ACCOUNTING
FOR
U N C E RTA I N T Y
Uncertainty analysis refers to dealing with the unknowns and variation inherent in any prediction. In the calculations,
this uncertainty is derived from assumptions in the models and from the representativeness of the input data. In
evacuation calculations, there is the added variability of any population of real people. In building designs and codes, the
classic method of treating uncertainty is with safety factors. A sufficient safety factor is applied such that, if all of the
uncertainty resulted in error in the same direction, the result would still provide an acceptable solution. In the
prediction of fire development and filling time, the intent is to select design fires that provide a worst likely scenario.
Thus a safety factor is not needed here, unless assumptions or data are used to which the predicted result is very
sensitive. The fire hazard analysis (FHA) report should include a discussion of uncertainty. This discussion should
address the representativeness of the data used and the sensitivity of the results to data and assumptions made. If the
sensitivity is not readily apparent, a sensitivity analysis (i.e. varying the data to the limits and seeing whether the
conclusions change) should be performed. This is also a good time to justify the appropriateness of the model or
calculation method.
FINAL REVIEW
If a model or calculation produces a result that seems counterintuitive, there is probably something wrong. Cases have
been seen in which the model clearly produced a wrong answer (e.g. the temperature predicted approached the surface
temperature of the sun), and there have been others in which it initially looked wrong but was not (e.g. a dropping
temperature in a space adjacent to a room with a growing fire was caused by cold air from outdoors being drawn in an
open door). Conversely, if the result is consistent with logic, sense, and experience, it is probably correct. This is also a
good time to consider whether the analysis addressed all of the important scenarios and likely events. Were all the
assumptions justified and were uncertainties addressed sufficiently to provide a comfort level similar to that obtained
when the plan review shows that all code requirements have been met?
PA G E 44
ASTM E1472, Standard Guide for Documenting Computer Software for Fire Models, American Society for Testing and
Materials, W. Conshohocken, PA, 2005.
Cooper, L. Y., and Forney, G. P., 1990. The Consolidated Compartment Fire Model (CCFM) Computer Code
Application CCFM. VENTS Part 1: Physical Basis, NIST IR 4342, National Institute of Standards and Technology,
Gaithersburg, MD.
Cooper, L. Y., and Stroup, D. W., 1982. Calculating Available Safe Egress Time (ASET): A Computer Users Guide,
NBSIR 82- 2578, National Bureau of Standards, Gaithersburg, MD.
Department of Energy General Memorandum, United States of America, Department of Energy, Germantown, MD,
November 7, 1991.
Drysdale, D., An Introduction to Fire Dynamics, 2nd ed., Wiley, Chichester, UK, 1998.
Engineering Guide Fire Exposures to Structural Elements, Society of Fire Protection Engineers (SFPE), Bethesda, MD,
2004.
Engineering Guide Human Behavior in Fire, Society of Fire Protection Engineers, Bethesda, MD, 2003.
Engineering Guide Piloted Ignition of Solid Materials Under Radiant Exposure, Society of Fire Protection Engineers,
Bethesda, MD, 2002.
Gann, R., et al., 2001. International Study of the Sublethal Effects of Fire Smoke on Survivability and Health (SEFS):
Phase I Final Report, NIST Technical Note 1439, National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, MD.
Heskestad, G., 1972. Similarity Relations for the Initial Convective Flow Generated by Fire, FactoryMutual Report 72WA/HT-17, Factory Mutual Research Corporation, Norwood, MA.
Heskestad, G., and Delichatsios, M. A., 1977. Environments of Fire Detectors Phase 1: Effect of Fire Size, Ceiling
Height, and Material, Vol. 2, Analysis, NBS-GCR-77-95, National Bureau of Standards, Gaithersburg, MD.
Hurley, M., 2005. Evaluation of Models of Fully Developed Post-Flashover Compartment Fires, Journal of Fire
Protection Engineering, Vol. 15, No. 3, pp. 173197.
National Fire Protection Agency, NFPA 10, Life Safety Code.
National Fire Protection Agency, NFPA 30, Flammable and Combustible Liquids Code.
National Fire Protection Agency, NFPA 497, Recommended Practice for the Classification of Flammable Liquids, Gases,
or Vapors and of Hazardous (Classified) Locations for Electrical Installations in Chemical Process Areas.
National Fire Protection Agency, NFPA 72, National Fire Alarm Code.
Peacock, R. D., Forney, G. P., Reneke, P., and Jones, W. W., 1993. CFAST, The Consolidated Model of Fire Growth and
Smoke Transport, NIST Technical Note 1299, National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, MD.
Purser, D., 2002. Toxicity Assessment of Combustion Products, SFPE Handbook of Fire Protection Engineering, 3rd ed.,
P. J. DiNenno et al. (eds.), National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, MA.
Schifiliti, R. P., Meacham, B. J., and Custer, R. L. P., 2002. Design of Detection Systems, SFPE Handbook of Fire
Protection Engineering, National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, MA,2002.
Society of Fire Protection Engineers, Engineering Guide to Performance-Based Fire Protection, National Fire Protection
Association, Quincy, MA, 2006.
Tewarson, A., 2002. Generation of Heat and Chemical Compounds in Fires, SFPE Handbook of Fire Protection
Engineering, 3rd ed., P. J. DiNenno et al. (eds.), National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, MA.
Vol. 146, No. 12, 1993.
Walton, W., and Thomas, P., 2002. Estimating Temperatures in Compartment Fires, SFPE Handbook of Fire Protection
Engineering, 3rd ed., P. J. DiNenno et al. (eds.), National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, MA.
PA G E 45
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E X P L O S I O N H A Z A R D S A N A LY S I S
Chapter 3
ef
INTRODUCTION
Potential hazards resulting from intentional or accidental spilling of large quantities of liquified natural gas (LNG)
include thermal radiation from vapor cloud fires (also referred to as flash fires) and pool fires. There is general agreement
among liquified natural gas experts regarding the following aspects of potential liquified natural gas fire and explosion
hazards:
(1) Vapors from large, un-ignited spills of liquified natural gas (LNG) cannot travel far into developed areas without
finding an ignition source, igniting, and burning back to the source.
(2) Once delayed ignition of the vapor cloud occurs, and provided that the cloud is unconfined and rich in methane,
the liquified natural gas (LNG) vapors will burn in the form of a vapor cloud fire.
(3) A vapor cloud traversing over commercial or residential terrain will almost certainly encounter an ignition source
early in its downwind drift and the resulting vapor cloud fire will burn back to the source.
(4) The vapor cloud fire will burn back to the source and cause a pool fire at the source if the release is a continuous
release and the release duration is longer than the time it takes the cloud to find an ignition source.
(5) If the vapor cloud is confined or the vapors contain large amounts of heavier hydrocarbons (C 2+), then the flame
can accelerate and result in an explosion. The magnitude of the explosion and explosion damage will depend on
several factors including the amount of vapors above the lower flammable limit, the presence of obstacles and
degree of confinement, the composition of the vapor cloud, and the strength of the ignition source.
(6) If immediate ignition occurs, a pool fire will result. The extent of the pool spreading (diameter) and flame height
will depend on several factors including the flow rate of liquified natural gas (LNG), the spill surface type (water or
land), the spill surface geometry, spill surface roughness, release composition, release temperature, ambient wind
speed, ambient temperature, and ambient relative humidity.
(7) If the liquid pool is unconfined and the inventory of liquified natural gas (LNG) is large, the fire will continue to
burn until all the fuel is exhausted by the pool fire. It is not practical or even possible to extinguish large liquified
natural gas (LNG) pool fires resulting from large spills of liquified natural gas unless the flow of liquified natural gas
feeding the pool can be stopped.
The maximum vapor cloud fire hazard area from large liquified natural gas (LNG) spills is typically estimated by
calculating a downwind dispersion distance to the lower flammable limit (LFL) and a cross-wind dispersion distance to
half of the lower flammable limit (LFL) at low wind speed and stable atmospheric conditions. This maximum fire hazard
zone is very unlikely to be experienced in any situation where the cloud drifts over populated areas. As indicated in
point three above, the cloud will soon encounter an ignition source and burn back to the source well before the
maximum hazard area is reached. Only the outdoor population present within the flammable boundaries of the vapor
cloud is assumed to be injured due to (a) short exposure to very high thermal radiation fluxes from the vapor cloud fire,
(b) direct flame contact, (c) secondary fires of clothing, and (d) inhalation of hot combustion products. It is assumed
that people inside buildings at the time of the flash fire will not be injured. It is also assumed that people inside buildings
which are ignited by flash fire or a pool fire will be able to escape from the burning structure without direct thermal
impact injuries. This is because the flash fire will ignite buildings from the outside and it will take some time for the fires
to penetrate inside. Published thermal radiation damage criteria often associate a level of damage with a heat flux value
or an integrated heat flux value for short duration events such as fireballs. Typical values used and their observed effects
are provided by American Institute of Chemical Engineers Center for Chemical Process Safety (CCPS), as shown in
Table 3.01. There is general disagreement among liquified natural gas experts pertaining to the extent of thermal
radiation hazard zones resulting from large liquified natural gas (LNG) pool fires due not only to uncertainties regarding
flame emissive power but also the limiting thermal radiation impact criteria.
Observed Effect
37.5
25.0
12.5
9.5
4.0
1.6
FIRE
AND
E X P L O S I O N H A Z A R D S A N A LY S I S
management include operational, economic, social, political, and environmental factors as well as the probability of the
occurrence of the hazard itself. The 5 kWm2 limiting criterion does not adequately represent the risks presented by an
liquified natural gas facility to sensitive population and critical areas or buildings. Dosage must be considered as
mentioned in second item above. The most widely recognized and used methods for establishing the impact of thermal
radiation on people are those developed by TNO in the Green Book. These methods are referred to as thermal radiation
probits or vulnerability models.
du= 1 1erf
2
Y 5
1
P=
10
2
u
2
Y 5
2
[3.01]
For mortality response to a toxic exposure of concentration (C) and duration (t), the function Y is given by,
Y =ABln C Nt
[3.02]
If concentration (C) varies with time (t), then function Y can be expressed as,
t
Y =A Bln C Ndt
[3.03]
Here, the integral containing concentration represents a dose factor. Probit analysis can also be applied to thermal
radiation hazards,
4
[3.04]
Y =A Bln I 3t
Where, parameter A and parameter B are the probit parameters established from measurements or critically evaluated
scientific data, I is the radiation intensity in Wm2, and t is the exposure time in seconds. The TNO Green book
provides probit functions for first and second degree burns as well as lethality from exposure to heat radiation within the
infra-red part of the spectrum. The last probit function reported in Table 3.02 accounts for clothing protective influence
on fatality for humans. It assumes that 20% of the body area remains unprotected for an average population. As a result,
the fatality for protected bodies is about 14% of the fatality for unprotected bodies.
Table 3.02 Heat radiation probit parameters (taken from TNO Green Book).
Damage
Probit Funcion
Y = 39.83 + 3.02ln(I4/3t)
Y = 43.14 + 3.02ln(I4/3t)
Fatality (unprotected)
Y = 36.38 + 2.56ln(I4/3t)
Fatality (protected)
Y = 37.23 + 2.56ln(I4/3t)
The influence of running away from a location with high heat radiation to a location where the level of heat radiation is
safe (approximately 1 kWm2) can also be used for the assessment of injury and fatality from heat radiation. TNO
considers 1 kWm2 as the maximum heat-flux the skin can absorb during a long time without feeling pain. The probits
presented in Table 3.02 can be modified to take that into account by replacing the exposure time (t) by an effective
PA G E 48
x
u
t eff =t r 0.6 1 1 t v
u
x
5
3
[3.05]
Where, tr is the reaction time and is about 5 seconds (see Table 3.03), x is the distance to 1 kWm2, u is the run
velocity in ms1, and tv is the time to reach 1 kWm2. Note that the probit equations shown in Table 3.02 should not
be extrapolated to values less than 1 kWm2.
Table 3.03 Heat radiation probit parameters (taken from TNO Green Book).
Intensity
(kWm
(kWm2)
Time to React
(s)
22
0.2
18
1.5
11
3.5
5.5
9.0
2.5
25.0
The cryogenic nature of liquified natural gas (LNG) facilities poses a potential risk to low temperature exposure of
personel, structural steel, equipment, and instrumentation, control and power cabling. The probability of cryogenic
exposure from containment loss of liquified natural gas (LNG) is inherently greater than the probability of a fire. Many
precautions are taken to eliminate ignition sources in liquified natural gas (LNG) facilities. For the most part, onshore
liquified natural gas (LNG) falities have generous spacing between equipment; so significant cost savings in fire and
cryogenic protection can be achieved without compromising safety. Generous spacing helps by locating some potential
liquified natural gas leak sources away from process equipment and liquified natural gas (LNG) storage tanks. In
addition, relocating personnel to safe area is usually not an issue. The decision to provide thermal protection becomes
an asset protection and capital investment question for onshore facilities. Offshore liquified natural gas (LNG) facilities
have close spacing due to the high cost of building offshore. Accordingly, fire and cryogenic protection must be applied
to a much higher proportion of equipment and structural steel. Egress and relocation to safe refuge areas are also
significant factors. If the structure of the offshore platform is compromised, it would have to be abandoned using egress
chutes, davit boats, freefall boats, life rafts, and so on. Two philosophies can be applied to fire and cryogenic protection.
One is ti protect all structural steel and equipment that could be eposed to fire and cryogenic temperatures. A second
philosophy only protects structural steel and equipment where failure could ecalate the incident.
Liquified natural gas (LNG) is a safe and practical way to transport natural gas (NG) by sea from remote locations to
user distribution systems. Liquified natural gas (LNG) is also an effective means for storing natural gas at peak-shaving
plants during low demand periods. As with any hydrocarbon processing facility, fire prevention and protection are
important considerations in liquified natural gas (LNG) facilities. Because of its cryogenic nature (atmospheric boiling
point approximately 162.2C) liquified natural gas (LNG) also poses exposure to employees, facility structure and
equipment. The design and operation of liquified natural gas (LNG) terminals minimize ignition sources; thus cryogenic
exposure is more likely than a fire incident. This s particularly true in the high pressure processing areas where the fluid
inventory is lower but where the higher pressure creates greater potential for cryogenic exposure. Cryogenic exposure
can cause freeze burns to employees and embrittlement to carbon steel, thus possibly resulting in structural failure.
Protection from cryogenic exposure, as well as from fire exposure, is needed. Protective measures should be chosen that
are effective for both fire and cryogenic exposure. But, remember the following: protective measures add cost, and
should only be applied to chose parts of facilities where the possibility of harm exists. Consequence modeling can be
used to predict the extent of potential fire and cryogenic exposure so that protection can be applied where necessary.
PA G E 49
FIRE
AND
E X P L O S I O N H A Z A R D S A N A LY S I S
HAZARDS
OF
C RYO G E N I C E X P O S U R E
Exposure of personnel to liquified natural gas (LNG) and cld gas can cause severe cryogenic burns, similar to frost bite
or thermal burns. Contact with non-insulated and een insulated parts of equipment or vessels containing cryogenic
fluids can also result in frost bite. Unprotected skinmay stick to low twmperature surfaces and flesh may be torn upon
removal. These hazards should be conrolled by separation, guarding, insulation and personnel protective equipment
such as gloves , safety glasses, and face shields. Inhaling cold vapor can damage lungs and may trigger an asthma attack
in susceptible indivduals. Asphyxiation is a seriou hazard because vaporized liquified natural gas (LNG) is usually
odorless. Air contains 21% oxygen (O2). If the oxygen content falls below 18%, adverse effects such as loss of mental
alertness and performance may result. At 6% to 10% of oxygen content or less, exertion is impossible; collapse and
unconsciousness occurs. At 6% of oygen content or below, death would occur in six to eight minutes. Personnel working
in the vicinity of an liquified natural gas release can quickly be enveloped by cold hydrocarbon vapors resulting in
oxygen deficient zones. The expansion ratio of liquified natural gas (LNG) is approximately 600 to 1. therefore, the
release of 1 m3 of liquified natural gas (LNG) will produce 600 m3 of 100% natural gas (NG) in a short period of time.
HAZARDS
TO
STRUCTURES
AND
EQUIPMENT
Carbon and steel, which is widely used in process plant structures and in the hulls of liquified natural gas (LNG) carriers,
loses its ductility and becomes brittle when exposed to liquified natural gas (LNG) or cold natural gas (NG): the AISI
4130 steel loses half of its impact resistance at 60F (51.1C); other carbon and steel structures become brittle at
temperatutes of 20F (28.9C). Liquified natural gas (LNG) has a boiling point of 260F (200 R). Since the
beginning of liquified natural gas (LNG) tanker trade 1969, there have benn eight marine liquified natural gas incidents
resulting in spillage with some hull damage due to cold fracture. However, no cargo fires have occurred. Direct contact
of liquified natural gas (LNG) with structural steel can rapidly cool the steel to below embrittlement temperature. When
combined with suggested failure criria for structural steel sections due to embrittlement, these high heat transfer fluxes
predict steel section failre in as little as one to five seconds. Vapor heat transfer due to contact with cold natural gas
(NG) velocities is predicted to be much slower. The cooling rate of structural steel depends on the amount of liquified
natural gas (LNG) available for chilling per surface area, i.e. the liquified natural gas liquid flux in the jet. The liquified
natural gas liquid flux is controlled by the flowrate and the location of the steel relative to the liquified natural gas
(LNG) release origin. Because cooling rates are so rapid, early leak detection, system isolation and shutdown have little
effect on managing cryogenic liquified natural gas (LNG) hazards in the immediate release area. By the time the
detection and shutdown system has activated, the cryogenic damage is complete within liquified natural gas (LNG)
exposure hazard envelope. Thus, cryogenic protection requires changing position, changing aterials of construction, or
adding protection such as cryogenic insulation or shielding. Rapid detection and process isolation will serve to limit the
total volume of liquified natural gas (LNG) release and mitigate the potential for liquified natural gas (LNG) to spread
over an even greater area, thereby exposing even more equipment and structures to cryogenic conditions. Polymeric
materials, such as plastics and elastomers, are also subject to rapid brittle fracture on exposure toliquified natural gas
(LNG), thus compromising some equipment components and electrical insulation. In the United States of America,
NFPA 59A (National Fire Protection Agency standard) is one of the key design documents for the design of liquified
natural gas (LNG) facilities. In European Union, EN 1473 (European Union standard)is normally used. Both standards,
NFPA 59A and EN 1473, require that equipment controls and structures whose failure would result in incident
escalation must be protected from cryogenic embrittlement.
HAZARDS
OF
FIRE EXPOSURE
In contrast to cryogenic hazards, fire hazards associatd with vaporization of liquified natural gas (LNG) releases can be
substantially reduced by rapid detection of releases, followed by shutdown and isolation of equipment. Experience has
shown that fire impinging upon structural steel takes a few minutes of exposure to threaten the steel's integrity. Heating
rate would be more rapid for direct impingement of jet fires. The heat flux associated with large pool fires would be
approximately 120kWm2 for fires larger than the object exposed and approximately 85 kWm2 for pool fires
comparable in size to the exposed object. The heat flux associated with jet fires would be approximately 250 kWm2
maximum. Due to the rapid detection and shutdown system, large jet fires are limited to the high pressure pumps,
vaporizers and export gas pipelinesections of an liquified natural gas (LNG) receiving, storage and regasification
terminal. Low pressure liquified natural gas releases from isolated lower pressure sections of the terminal are expected to
cause local pool fire hazards if ignited. Pool fires can be controlled with sloping, curbingand trenching. Liquified natural
gas (LNG) releases that discharge at a pressure less than 4 barg are assumed to form liquid pools rather than jets.
PA G E 50
R I S K- B A S E D P R O T E C T I O N
OF
O N S H O R E FA C I L I T I E S
Ordinary structural steel can fail rapidly when exposed to liquified natural gas (LNG). Ther are dozens of onshore
liquified natural gas (LNG) facilities around the world. Because most onshore liquified natural gas (LNG) facilities are
comparatively open and eqipment is not congested, risk to life is low. In those cases, risk management becomes primarily
a matter of asset protection.one risk-based philosophy that minimizes initial capital cost is to protect all assets that could
be exposed to cryogenic fluids or fire, whose failure could lead to escalation of the incident. Because of wide spacing, and
because many assets can fail without causing escalation, only some assets will require protection. Of course, loss of even
a part of a facility can cause extended lost production with a major impacton the overall costs of the facility. The choice
is a business decision.
PROTECTION
OF
O F F S H O R E FA C I L I T I E S
Although less common and more expensive than onshore liquified natural gas (LNG) facilities, liquified natural gas
facilities can be located offshore when there are no suitable onshore sites. Offshore, because of close spacing, protection
of all assets that could be damaged by exposure to cryogenic fluids or fire is recommended. Because of weight restrictions
, a lightweight ablative layering system can provides both fire and cryogenic protection. Insulation suitable for offshore
structural steel, decking and equipment must be resistant to salt water as well as to cryogenic and fire exposure. An
epoxy-based system can provide both cryogenic and jet fire protection; it can also serve as coating to inhibit corrosion
effects. When compared with onshore liquified natural gas (LNG) facilities, the sigificantly smaller areas associated with
an offshore facility increase the potential for liquified natural gas release incidents to impair occupant evacuation and
can escalate damage to the facilities. One method to reduce potential exposures (both cryogenic and pressurized fire), is
to provide flange guards on specific flange connections. Such flange guards serve to reduce the potential spray area, and
to prevent well-formed jets from occurring.
Valves
cryogenic spray exposure on shutdown and blowdown valves can cause failure of the actuators prior to the valve moving
to the safe position. This is acknowledged as a low probability even since it would require direct spraying onto an
PA G E 51
FIRE
AND
E X P L O S I O N H A Z A R D S A N A LY S I S
actuator to induce failure. However, the probability and consequence of the event should be reviewed for critical valves,
and protection provided if necessary. In general, fire exposures to such valves is less likely to prevent the valve from
moving to the safe position because the embrittlement effets from the cryogenic liquified natural gas (LNG) spray can
induce a more rapid failure.
Cloud Effect
When liquified natural gas (LNG) vaporizes it crates a condensation cloud in the air around the natural gas (NG) cloud.
This cloud is often mistaken for natural gas itself, but is merely condensed water vapor resulting from the cryogenic
release. Creating large fog clouds during liquified natural gas (LNG) releases can impair the employees' visual abilities.
They may not be able to see the pooled liquified natural gas on the deck if it is obscured by a condensation fog cloud.
Based on this, all portions of the process unit should be reviewed to assure that the employees have access to more than
one evacuation route to the temporary refuge no matter where an incident may occur. In addition, the emergency
response team members should be specifically trained on liquified natural gas (LNG) release characteristics so that they
are properly prepared to respond.
Industrial fires can be intense emitters of heat, smoke, and other combustion products. This is particularly true if the fuel
is a petroleum based substance, with a high heat of combustion and sooting potential. The radiant energy flux can be
sufficiently high to threaten both the structural integrity of neighboring buildings, and the physical safety of fire fighters,
plant personnel, and potentially people beyond the boundaries of the facility. The United States Department of Housing
and Urban Development (HUD) has established thermal radiation flux levels of 31.5 kWm2 (10,000 BTUft2hr1)
for buildings and 1.4 kWm2 (450 BTUft2hr1) for people as guides in determining an Acceptable Separation
Distance (ASD) between a fire consuming combustible liquids or gases and nearby structures and people. The
calculation procedure for determining acceptable separation distance (ASD) is set forth in a 1982 Housing and Urban
Development (HUD) Guidebook entitled, Urban Development Siting with Respect to Hazardous Commercial and
Industrial Facilities. Much of the theoretical development for this guidebook is contained in a 1975 Housing and Urban
Development (HUD) Guidebook entitled, Safety Considerations in Siting Housing Projects. In the quarter century
since that report was released, the field of fire science has grown rapidly, leading to improved methods of measurement
and prediction of fire behavior. A review by the Building and Fire Research Laboratory at the National Institute of
Standards and Technology (NIST) of the 1975 Housing and Urban Development (HUD) guidelines for thermal
radiation flux has revealed that for certain fire scenarios the methodology can produce estimates of radiation flux that
are up to an order of magnitude larger than those actually measured in field experiments. The source of this discrepancy
is the assumption that the fire is unobscured by smoke, that is, a person watching the fire from a distance sees the entire
extent of the combustion region. In reality, large fires of most combustible liquids and gases generate an appreciable
amount of smoke. Depending on the fuel and the size of the fire, up to 20 % of the fuel mass is converted to smoke
particulate in the combustion process. This smoke shields much of the luminous flame region from the viewer, and it is
this luminous flame region that is the source of most of the thermal radiation. This shielding effect is most pronounced
for fires that are tens or hundreds of meters in diameter because of the decreased efficiency of combustion at these
scales. A schematic diagram is shown in Figure 3.01. The analysis of hazardous liquid fires is relatively independent of
the type of liquid; burning rates and heat release rates do not vary significantly from fuel to fuel, nor does the nature of
the fire. However, hazardous gases stored under pressure, especially liquified natural gas (LNG) and liquified petroleum
gas (LPG), are not as predictable. There are a number of references to fires involving liquified natural gas (LNG) and
liquified petroleum gas (LPG) in which a cloud of combustible gas ignited to form fireballs on the order of 100 meters in
diameter. The radiation from fires fueled by gases leaking from storage tanks can cause a boiling liquid expanding vapor
explosion (BLEVE) within a tank that not only produces a tremendous amount of thermal radiation, but also often
causes parts of the tank to be thrown tens or hundreds of meters. In particular, liquified petroleum gas (LPG) is so
volatile that it is more likely to vaporize than form a liquid pool, thus much of the research into large liquid fuel fires
may not be applicable to liquified petroleum gas (LPG) fires. Predicting the thermal radiative flux from a fire of leaking
combustible gases is more complicated than that of a liquid fuel fire because there are a number of potential fire
scenarios to consider. With a liquid fuel fire, the dynamics of the fire is more understood and predictable than with a
gaseous fuel. Rather than develop a separate methodology for estimating thermal radiation for each potential gaseous
fire scenario, it is preferable to employ a simple procedure which encompasses a wide variety of scenarios, removes most
of the geometrical parameters from the calculation, and remains conservative. Such a method is known as the point
source radiation model. All that it requires is an estimate of the total heat release rate of the fire, and the fraction of
PA G E 52
Zone 2
"Intermittancy
Region"
Flame Not
Continuous
Visible
Flame
Height
Large scale eddies
entrained from the
atmosphere
Air
Entrainment
Zone 2
"Anchored
Pulsating
Flame"
Zone 1
Luminous Band
HAZARDOUS LIQUIDS
In the solid flame radiation model, the thermal radiation flux
expression,
q=F
f E f
[3.06]
where F is a geometric view factor that defines the fraction of energy radiated by the fire that is intercepted by the
receiving object, is the atmospheric transmissivity to thermal radiation, mainly a function of humidity and distance
between the radiation source and the receiver, f is the effective emissivity of the flame, generally expressed as,
f =1eD
[3.07]
where is an attenuation coefficient and D is the width of the fire, and Ef is the total emissive power of the flame at the
flame surface. For fires greater than a few meters in diameter, the effective emissivity (f) of the flame can be taken as
one. Also, to be on the conservative side, the transmissivity is taken as one. What remains to be computed are the view
PA G E 53
FIRE
AND
E X P L O S I O N H A Z A R D S A N A LY S I S
factor F and the emissive power of the flame (Ef). Computation methods of the past, considered the view factor and the
emissive power independently, which for some fire scenarios led to estimates of radiative emission from the fire in excess
of the total energy of the fire. What was missing from these analyses was an overall accounting of energy. This problem
has been remedied in the last few decades because it is now generally recognized by the field of fire protection
engineering that a fires total heat release rate (HRR) is the best measure of its potential to do harm. Moreover, the heat
release rate (HRR) of a fire is easier to estimate than its temperature or physical size because the heat release rate
(HRR) is proportional to its rate of fuel consumption, a quantity that is relatively easy to measure. The Building and Fire
Research Laboratory (BFRL) has performed on the order of one hundred large scale fire experiments in the past two
decades with a variety of combustible liquids and gases, and one of the more reliable measurements is that of the mass
burning rate from which the fires total heat release rate (HRR) can be estimated. A fraction of the fires total heat
release rate (HRR) is emitted in the form of thermal radiation. For fires up to roughly four meters in diameter, the ratio
of the rate of energy radiated to the surroundings to the total heat release rate (HRR) of the fire (r) is between 0.30
and 0.40, and this value decreases with increasing fire diameter due to smoke obscuration. Much of the thermal
radiation from a large, sooty fire is emitted from the luminous wall of flame encircling the base of the fire. The flames
above this luminous wall are obscured from view by the smoke formed due to incomplete combustion. Air is entrained
into the fire at its base, and soot quickly forms in the combustion process, creating a thermal barrier higher up in the fire
that traps radiant energy from escaping the fires interior. An idealized picture of a fire used in most analyses of thermal
radiation is one in which the fire is assumed to be cylindrical in shape with a height (H) and diameter (D) with a total
heat release rate (HRR) of radiated energy. More generally, the fire can be assumed to be of arbitrary shape with a
perimeter length (P). The radiated energy from the fire can be expressed as,
rQ=PHE
f
[3.08]
Radiometer measurements from large fire experiments suggest that total heat release rate (HRR) of the fire (r)
decreases with increasing fire diameter (D) according to,
r =r ,maxeD
[3.09]
where r,max is 0.35 and is 0.05 m1. These values are based on a curve fit to experimental data involving a range of
can be expressed as the product of
different combustible liquids. The total heat release rate (HRR) of the fire Q
the heat release rate per unit area q f and the area (A) of the base of the fire,
q fA
Q=
[3.10]
For a given fuel, the heat release rate per unit area q f is relatively constant because the fuel mass burning rate per
unit area is relatively constant. The two remaining parameters in Equation [3.09] are the emissive power (E f) and the
height (H) of the idealized cylinder. The reported values of the emissive power for flammable liquids and gases vary
widely from source to source. The variation in reported values of emissive power has to do with the definition of the
height of the idealized cylinder that represents the fire. When viewed from a distance, the actual fire appears smokey,
with occasional bursts of luminous flame emerging from the smoke. The flame height of the actual fire is defined as the
vertical extent of the combustion region, and it can be thought of as the maximum height above the ground at which
these luminous bursts can be seen. Taking an idealized cylindrical fire with height equal to the flame height of the actual
fire, on average about 20% of the surface area of the cylindrical fire consists of visible flames and 80% is smoke. Most of
the visible flame is at the base of the fire, although periodically luminous flames burst through the smokey plume higher
up. The reported values of emissive power are most often average values for the entire flame height, and will be
significantly less than the emissive power of the luminous flames. If the relatively low average emissive power is applied
to the surface area of the idealized cylinder whose height is equal to the flame height of the actual fire, then the estimate
of the radiative flux at distances greater than a few fire diameters away will be accurate. However, at closer distances the
radiative flux estimates will typically be under-estimated because the radiant energy is assumed to be distributed over
the entire height of the fire, rather than concentrated near the base as it is in reality. For example, for fires larger than 30
meters in diameter, the average emissive power reported by many researchers is less than 31.5 kWm2 (10,000
BTUft2hr1), the threshold value used by Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) for determining
the acceptable separation distance (ASD) for buildings and combustible structures. Both the method of Shokri and
Beyler, and the method of Mudan and Croce use an emissive power averaged over the flame height of the fire. Both
PA G E 54
P=D
[3.11]
and
2
Q=
q f
2
[3.12]
H=
r ,maxeDDq f
4E f
[3.13]
Height (H) is plotted as a function of diameter (D). In these cases, all that is required to obtain the height of the
luminous zone is an estimate of the heat release rate per unit area. What remains of calculating the thermal radiation
flux using Equation [3.06] is determining the view factor (F) from the fire to a target. The view factor calculation can be
simplified by assuming the fire is surrounded by a vertical wall of height (H) emitting radiation energy at a rate of
emissive power (Ef), and that the wall is composed of circular or linear elements for which analytical recipes of the view
factor are available. The presence of man-made or natural thermal barriers can be incorporated into the view factor
calculation. Although the methodology presented here is designed to be conservative, it is not conservative in one
regard. Because the radiative energy output is concentrated near the base of the fire rather than distributed over the
entire height of the fire, the effectiveness of a thermal barrier in blocking thermal radiation might be exaggerated.
Recent measurements of a 20 meters diameter crude oil fire showed that 85% of the radiant energy of the fire was
emitted at heights lower than 20 meters. The remaining 15% of the radiant energy was emitted mainly by hot black
smoke at higher levels, and by occasional luminous bursts of flame. The heat release rate (HRR) per unit area q f
for crude oil is approximately 2,000 kWm2.
HAZARDOUS GASES
Fire scenarios involving combustible gases vary widely, from a pool fire of a liquified gas, like liquified natural gas (LNG)
or liquified petroleum gas (LPG), to a flare formed by burning vapors escaping a storage tank, to a fireball following the
release of a large amount of gas that subsequently ignites. Because it is difficult to predict the structure of the fire, it is
important to employ a methodology for predicting the thermal radiation flux from the fire. The simplest method of
calculating the thermal radiation, known as the point source model, is to estimate the heat release rate of the fire,
assume a fraction of the total energy is released in the form of thermal radiation, and then divide this radiated energy
over the surface area of a sphere whose radius is the distance from the center of the fire to the target,
q=
RQ
4r 2
[3.14]
Essentially, this method assumes that all of the thermal radiation emanates from a point. For targets greater than several
fire diameters away, this assumption is reasonably good. However, at closer distances, the assumption is not valid, but it
is conservative because it assumes all of the energy is concentrated at a point rather than spread over the height and
width of the fire, as was assumed by the solid flame model above. Equation [3.14] requires two pieces of information:
the radiative fraction (r) and the total heat release rate (HRR). Because gaseous fires are often in the form of flares, it is
not appropriate to assume that radiative fraction (r) decreases with fire diameter as in the case of liquid fires above.
Flares are substantially more luminous than liquid pool fires because the oxygen is better able to penetrate the
combustion region and thus the combustion is more efficient and less smoke is formed in the process. A conservative
estimate of radiative fraction (r) is 0.20, appropriate for a wide range of gaseous fuels. The estimate of the heat release
PA G E 55
FIRE
AND
E X P L O S I O N H A Z A R D S A N A LY S I S
is not as easy as it is for liquids because more often than not there is no fire diameter because there is no
rate Q
liquid pool, even for liquified gaseous fuels like liquified natural gas (LNG) or liquified petroleum gas (LPG). It is more
appropriate in this case to estimate a mass burning rate m
and then multiply this by a heat of combustion,
m
Q=
Hc
[3.15]
Because of the uncertainty inherent in predicting the hazard associated with pressurized storage of gases, the
consideration of thermal barriers as a means of lessening the radiation flux to distant targets is difficult. Liquified gases
may form a pool that erupts in fire, or the gases may vaporize so quickly that a fireball or turbulent jet fire forms. In the
former case, a wall surrounding the fire may block a substantial fraction of the radiation energy, whereas in the latter
case, a wall will do little to lessen the impact of thermal radiation on surrounding targets. Consequently, consideration
should not be given to thermal barriers when assessing the thermal radiation hazard from fires of pressurized storage
tanks or pipelines of combustible gases.
DETERMINING
THE
A C C E P TA B L E S E PA R AT I O N D I S TA N C E (ASD)
If the fuel is liquid at atmospheric temperature and pressure, if the fire is roughly circular around its base, and if there are
no obstructions to be considered, simplified charts can be used to determine the acceptable separation distance (ASD).
The acceptable separation distance (ASD) values presented in the simplified charts are based on the assumption that
the perimeter of the fire is a circle. If this is not the case, an equivalent fire diameter needs to be calculated. If the ratio
of the longest dimension to the shortest is less than 2.5, then an equivalent cylinder of diameter,
D=
4A
[3.16]
can be assumed. Otherwise, a combination of either vertical circular arcs or vertical flat plates can be used as surrogates
for the actual fire shape. Once the equivalent fire diameter has been determined, the acceptable separation distance
(ASD) for people and buildings can be obtained from acceptable separation distance (ASD) chart. This chart displays
the distance from a fire at which the radiative flux is expected to be 31.5 kWm2 (10,000 BTUft2hr1) and 1.4
kWm2 (450 BTUft2hr1), respectively. Note that the acceptable separation distance (ASD) is measured from the
leading edge of the fire. A useful feature of the chart is that it shows that there are maximum separation distances from a
fire beyond which the thermal radiation flux impinging on a structure or person is less than the acceptable separation
distance (ASD) threshold values regardless of the fire size. Another useful application of screen acceptable separation
distance (ASD) is in cases where the fuel spill is unconfined. The 1975 Housing and Urban Development (HUD)
guidelines and the SFPE Handbook discuss methods of estimating the diameter of an unconfined spill fire. The simplest
method of obtaining a spill diameter is,
D=10 V
[3.17]
where D is in meters and V is in cubic meters. The equivalent formula in english units is,
D=2V
[3.18]
where D is in feet and V is in gallons. Equation [3.17] asserts that the liquid will continue to spread until it is about 1
cm in depth. However, given the wide variety of potential spill scenarios and the number of assumptions that have to be
made in order to apply the correlations, it is preferable to apply the screen acceptable separation distance (ASD)
distances in cases of unconfined spills rather than relying on the spill diameter correlations.
E S T I M AT I O N
OF
T H E R M A L R A D I AT I O N (A N A LY T I C A L M O D E L )
Thermal radiation plays a very important role in pool fires, because the burning rate of large pool fires is greatly
influenced by radiative heat transfer. The problem of thermal radiation hazards also depends on the characteristics of
radiative heat transfer. A simple analytical model which is called one mesh model is introduced to estimate thermal
radiation from large pool fires. The flame shape of pool fires is assumed to be a cylindrical one for simplicity as shown in
Figure 3.01. Properties such as temperature of the flame (T f) and absorption coefficient (k) are considered to be uniform
within the flame model. Heat generation due to the combustion of fuel is assumed to take place within the flame model.
PA G E 56
[3.19]
where Qf is,
Q f =m f H C
[3.20]
where is the combustion efficiency, mf is the fuel burning rate(kgs1), and Hc is the heat of combustion (Wskg1).
Qa is given by,
Qa =macp aT a
[3.21]
where ma is the mass velocity of entrained air (kgs1), cpa is the specific heat of air (Wskg1K1), and Ta is air
temperature (K). Qr is given by,
Qr =m f[ H f T bT a c f ]
[3.22]
where Hf is the heat of vaporization (Wskg1), Tb is the boiling point of fuel(K), and cf is the specific heat of fuel
(Wskg1K1). Qg is given by,
Q g = m f ma cp gT m
[3.23]
where cpg is the specific heat of combustion gas (Wskg1K1), and Tm is mean temperature of of the flame model. Total
heat loss by radiation to the surroundings of the flame model (QL) is,
Q L =41 s k mT 4mV
[3.24]
where is Stefan-Boltzmann constant (5.67108 Wm2K4), V is flame volume and s is a self-absorption factor.
Approximate value of as for various shapes of gas mass can be calculated easily using the following equation cosisting of
km, V and a surface area of the flame model (S).
s =1
110ck L
k mL
m
[3.25]
where c is a factor, which is given by Hottel at al., for various gas shapes. L is the mean beam path length and can be
expressed as,
L=
4V
S
[3.26]
Radiation from the entire flame model is assumed to be emitted uniformly to the surroundings from the point which
located on the center line of flame of height (H). Therefore the radiative energy per unit area (q x) at the distance
L=5H is,
q X =1s
QL
4 L2H 2
[3.27]
FIRE
AND
E X P L O S I O N H A Z A R D S A N A LY S I S
Qr = AST a4
[3.28]
a is an emissivity of air and set to unity. Qr of Equation [3.22] is also expressed as,
[3.29]
[3.30]
Tbase are the temperature at the flame model bottom and hs is a convective heat transfer coefficient between flame and
fuel surface. The flame height (H) and the fire diameter (D) correlation and experimental data is given by Moorhouse
(1982) model,
H
0.254
=6.2F
D
[3.31]
H
=430.4F
D
[3.32]
H
=55F 3
D
[3.33]
F=
mf
a gD
[3.34]
where a is specific mass for combustible material (kgm3), and g is the gravity constant (m3kg1s2).
CPR-16E, 1992. Methods for the Determination of Possible Damage to People and Objects Resulting from Releases of
Hazardous Materials, First Edition, published by TNO, 1992.
D. C. Hamilton and W. R. Morgan. Radiant Interchange Configuration Factors. NACA Technical Note 2836, National
Advisory Committee for Aeronautics, Washington, D.C., 1952.
D. J. Finney. Probit Analysis. Cambridge University Press, 1977.
Delichatsios, M. A., Air Entrainment into Buoyant Jet Diffusion Flames and Pool Fires, Combustion and Flame,
Volume 70, Pages 33-46, 1987.
Delichatsios, M. A., 1987. Air Entrainment into Buoyant Jet Diffusion Flames and Pool Fires, Combustion and Flame,
Volume 70, Pages 33-46, 1987.
Department of Housing and Urban Development. Safety Considerations in Siting Housing Projects, 1975. HUD Report
0050137.
Finney, D. J., Probit Analysis . Cambridge University Press, 1977.
Fire Protection Handbook. National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, Massachusetts, 18th edition, 1997.
G. Opschoor, R. O. M. Van Loo, and H. J. Pasman. Methods for Calculation of Damage Resulting from Physical Effects
of the Accidental Release of Dangerous Materials, in international conference on hazard identification and risk analysis,
PA G E 58
PA G E 59
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E X P L O S I O N H A Z A R D S A N A LY S I S
Chapter 4
ef
INTRODUCTION
Many studies have been conducted to assess the consequences and risks of LNG spills from both storage terminals and
liquified natural gas tankers. However, while recognized standards exist for the systematic safety analysis of potential
spills or releases from liquified natural gas (LNG) storage terminals and facilities on land, no equivalent set of standards
exists for the evaluation of the safety or consequences from LNG tanker spills over water. Due to limited experience and
experimental testing associated with large-scale spills over water, most studies use simplifying assumptions to calculate
and predict the hazards of a large liquified natural gas (LNG) spill. The range of assumptions and estimates for many
complicated spill scenarios can lead to significant variability in estimating the probability, hazards, consequences, and
overall risks of large liquified natural gas (LNG) spills over water. Natural gas liquefaction dates back to the 19 th century,
when british chemist and physicist Michael Faraday experimented with liquefying different types of gases, including
natural gas. A prototype liquified natural gas (LNG) plant was first built in West Virginia in 1912, and the first
commercial liquefaction plant was built in Cleveland, Ohio, in 1941. The Cleveland plant liquefied natural gas and
stored the liquified natural gas (LNG) in tanks, which was vaporized later for use during heavy demand periods. Natural
gas continues to be liquefied and stored for use during peak demands, with almost 100 liquified natural gas (LNG)
peaking facilities in the United States. Typical properties of liquified natural gas (LNG) are:
(1) Liquified natural gas (LNG) is simply natural gas that has been cooled to its liquid state at atmospheric pressure:
260F (162.2C) and 14.7 psia. Currently, imported liquified natural gas (LNG) is commonly 95% to 97%
methane, with the remainder a combination of ethane, propane, and other heavier gases.
(2) Liquified natural gas (LNG) is transported at ambient pressures.
(3) Liquefying natural gas vapor, which reduces the gas into a practical size for transportation and storage, reduces the
volume that the gas occupies more than 600 times.
(4) Liquified natural gas (LNG) is considered a flammable liquid.
(5) Liquified natural gas (LNG) vapor is colorless, odorless, and non-toxic.
(6) Liquified natural gas (LNG) vapor typically appears as a visible white cloud, because its cold temperature condenses
water vapor present in the atmosphere.
(7) The lower and upper flammability limits of methane are 5.5% and 14% by volume at a temperature of 25C.
Table 4.01 Flammability limits of the selected fuel compounds (at 25C).
Fuel
Methane
5.5
14.0
Butane
1.6
8.4
Propane
2.1
9.6
Ethanol
3.3
19.0
1.4
7.8
Isopropyl alcohol
2.0
12.7
Ethyl ether
1.9
36.0
Xylene
0.9
7.0
Toluene
1.0
7.1
Hydrogen
4.0
75.0
Acetylene
2.5
85.0
PA G E 60
High consequence operations such as the transportation, off-loading, and storage of liquified natural gas (LNG) imply
potential risks to people and property. Risk is defined as the potential for suffering harm or loss and is often quantified as
the product of the probability of occurrence of a threatening event times the system vulnerability to that event and the
consequences of that event. Thus,
R= P HP SS
[4.01]
where PH is the exposure to the potential occuring threat (the probability of an accidental or intentional threat, hazard
or harm), PS is the probability that preventive or mitigating measures fail (system failure), and S is the consequences
usually expressed in fatalities or costs. Effectively evaluating the risks of a large liquified natural gas (LNG) spill over
water requires that the potential hazards (results of events that are harmful to the public and property) and
consequences be considered in conjunction with the probability of an event, plus the effectiveness of physical and
operational measures of liquified natural gas (LNG) transportation to prevent or mitigate a threatening event. For
example, safety equipment, operational considerations and requirements, and risk management planning can work
together to reduce the risks of an liquified natural gas (LNG) spill by reducing both the probability of an event that
could breach the liquified natural gas tanker and by reducing the consequences of a spill. Because of the difficulty in
assessing the effectiveness of safety measures and operational safety and security strategies, many studies assume the
probability of an event and a containments vulnerability to be one; therefore, the concentration is on calculating
expected consequences. This often provides worst-case results with low probability and very high uncertainty, which can
inappropriately drive operational decisions and system designs. Therefore, for high consequence and low probability
events, a performance-based approach is often used for developing risk management strategies that will reduce the
hazards and risks to both public safety and property.
R I S K A N A LY S I S E L E M E N T S
OF A
POTENTIAL SPILL
The risk analysis approach of a potential liquified natural gas (LNG) spill should include:
(1) Uncertainty Assessment of the accuracy of the assumptions used and the probable ranges.
(2) Comprehensiveness Do the failure modes considered account for all major avenues of loss? Understanding the full
range of consequences associated with a catastrophe can require considerable effort. Completeness is important to
properly support risk assessment and risk management. Two important variables are directness of effect and
latency. For example, if an explosion breaches an liquified natural gas (LNG) cargo tank on a ship, that is a direct
effect. Conversely, if a resulting explosion damages an liquified natural gas (LNG) terminal hampering future
liquified natural gas (LNG) deliveries for extended periods that is an indirect or latent effect. Latency refers to
when the effects are felt. Immediate effects occur simultaneously with the threat; whereas latent effects occur after
an interval, the length of which might vary from system to system. It should be emphasized that indirect and latent
effects sometimes dominate other consequences.
(3) Evaluation of risk reduction measures One way to reduce risk is to remove or block the threat (i.e. prevent the
PA G E 61
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E X P L O S I O N H A Z A R D S A N A LY S I S
disaster from occurring in the first place). For example, reinforce ships against collisions or reduce ship speeds in a
harbor to reduce the chance of a spill.
(4) Threat as a moving target Many avenues to failure mechanical, environmental insult, operator error are
amenable to analysis and can be confidently predicted to occur with some probability in the future. Other types of
threats can be constantly changing and difficult to assess accurately, requiring more robust approaches for
prevention or mitigation and frequent re-evaluations of new threats.
AND
MANAGEMENT PROCESS
The risk analysis, in turn, helps support a program for managing risks of liquified natural gas (LNG) deliveries to
terminals for site-specific locations and conditions. The risk assessment and management process includes:
(1) Evaluating the potential for an event that could cause a breach or loss of liquified natural gas (LNG);
(2) Establishing the potential damage to a the containment system from these events and the potential spills that could
occur;
(3) Estimating the volume and rate of a potential liquified natural gas (LNG) spill based on the dimensions and location
of the breach, properties and characteristics of the liquified natural gas (LNG), structure construction and design,
and environmental conditions (e.g. wind, waves, currents, and other factors);
(4) Estimating the dispersion, volatilization, and potential hazards of a spill based on physical and environmental
conditions;
(5) When necessary, identifying prevention and mitigation approaches and strategies to meet risk management goals.
If risks, costs, or operational impacts are deemed to be too high, the overall process cycles back through the evaluation
to identify alternative approaches for improving system performance. Safeguards could include a range of risk
management options: improvements in system protection, modification of existing operational and safety and security
management procedures, improvements in emergency response coordination, or changes in support operations or
services. The risks are then re-evaluated according to the new approaches to determine if they meet identified risk
management goals. If not, then the evaluations can be repeated with additional provisions or changes until the risk
management goals are reached. The potential alternatives, changes, and upgrades can be compared through the process
to identify appropriate and effective approaches for improving overall system safety and security. Deciding on the
sufficiency of protection measures to meet risk management goals is often aided by a benefit-cost evaluation. In most
locations and most operations, some level of risk is common and, therefore, a residual risk often remains. For example,
certain levels of safety equipment are standard features in automobiles, such as seat belts, air bags, and antilock brakes.
While they might be effective safety measures, they do not provide total protection in all automobile accident scenarios.
Therefore, the public does have some level of risk associated with driving. While many potential safeguards might be
identified for a given location, the level of risk reduction and risk management required to be protective of public safety
and property for liquified natural gas (LNG) transportation and storage will vary based on site-specific conditions. The
risk management goals for a given location should be determined in cooperation with all stakeholders. Stakeholders
include the general public, public safety officials and elected officials, facility operators, port and transportation safety
and security officials, underwriters, utility representatives, regulatory agencies, and ship management companies.
THE ELEMENTS
OF AN
S P I L L O V E R WAT E R
Quantifying the size and likelihood of spills from different events drives the spill and dispersion analysis. Following a
tank or containment breach or other spill event, depending on the size and location, liquified natural gas (LNG) can be
expected to spill onto or into the liquified natural gas (LNG) structure itself, escape through a breach onto the water
surface, or both. Depending on whether there is early or late ignition, liquified natural gas (LNG) dispersion can occur
through either volatilization of the liquified natural gas (LNG) into the air and transport as a vapor cloud or transport as
a liquid on the surface of the water. Several variables must be addressed in developing an assessment of an liquified
natural gas (LNG) spill and its general dispersion, including potential ignition sources and ignition times. These factors
determine whether the liquified natural gas (LNG) disperses without a fire, burns as a pool fire, or burns as a vapor fire.
Assumptions made in addressing or analyzing these variables can have a significant impact on estimates of the potential
hazards associated with an liquified natural gas (LNG) spill. The consequences or hazards from an liquified natural gas
(LNG) spill include a wide range of potential events.
Asphyxiation
Methane is considered a simple asphyxiant, but has low toxicity to humans. In a large-scale liquified natural gas (LNG)
release, the cryogenically cooled liquid liquified natural gas (LNG) would begin to vaporize upon release from the breach
PA G E 62
Type of Damage
35.0 37.5
25.0
18.0 20.0
12.5 15.0
5.0
As noted in Table 4.02, combustion and thermal damage from a fire can have severe consequences and should be
carefully and thoroughly analyzed.
Fireballs
Two types of combustion modes might produce damaging pressure: deflagration and detonation. Deflagration is a
rapid combustion that progresses through an unburned fuel-air mixture at subsonic velocities; whereas, detonation is an
extremely rapid combustion that progresses through an unburned fuel-air mixture at supersonic velocities. For low
reactivity fuels such as natural gas, combustion will usually progress at low velocities and will not generate significant
overpressure under normal conditions. Ignition of a vapor cloud will cause the vapor to burn back to the spill source.
This is generally referred to as a fireball, which, by its nature, generates relatively low pressures, thus having a low
potential for pressure damage to structures.
PA G E 63
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E X P L O S I O N H A Z A R D S A N A LY S I S
Air Explosions
Certain conditions, however, might cause an increase in burn rate that does result in overpressure. If the fuel-air cloud is
confined (e.g. trapped between ship hulls), is very turbulent as it progresses through or around obstacles, or encounters a
high-pressure ignition source, a rapid acceleration in burn rate might occur. The potential for damaging overpressures
from such events could occur under some limited spill and dispersion scenarios, specifically in confined areas. However,
effects will be localized near the spill source and are not expected to cause extensive structural damage.
Rapid Phase Transitions (RPT)
Rapid Phase Transitions occur when the temperature difference between a hot liquid and a cold liquid is sufficient to
drive the cold liquid rapidly to its superheat limit, resulting in spontaneous and explosive boiling of the cold liquid.
When a cryogenic liquid such as liquified natural gas (LNG) is suddenly heated by contacting a warm liquid such as
water, explosive boiling of the liquified natural gas (LNG) can occur, resulting in localized overpressure releases. Energy
releases equivalent to several kilograms of high explosive have been observed. The impacts of this phenomenon will be
localized near the spill source and should not cause extensive structural damage.
R I S K R E D U C T I O N S T R AT E G Y: P R E V E N T I O N
AND
M I T I G AT I O N
Many factors can impact risks to public safety and property from an liquified natural gas (LNG) spill: design, materials
selection, manufacturing methods, inspection and testing, assembly techniques, worker training, and safety operations,
among others. Other significant factors include terminal location and design, port handling elements (e.g. tugboats and
firefighting equipment), communications systems, and emergency response capabilities. It is important to realize that a
decision involving large capital expense can have long-lasting effects (e.g. liquified natural gas terminal site selection).
For this reason, it is imperative to consider carefully all risk management decisions in order that residual or future risks
can be managed to an acceptable level. In general, risk can be managed by prevention or mitigation. Prevention seeks to
avoid an accident or attack; mitigation reduces the effects of an accident or attack. While the prevention and mitigation
strategies identified are possible, many might not be cost-effective or even practical in certain locations or applications.
Risk management should be based on developing or combining approaches that can be effectively and efficiently
implemented to reduce hazards to acceptable levels in a cost-effective manner.
The consequences or potential hazards to the public of a large liquified natural gas (LNG) spill over water will depend
on:
(1) Potential damage to an liquified natural gas (LNG) from either an accidental or intentional breach and the size,
location, release rate and volume of liquified natural gas (LNG) spilled;
(2) Environmental conditions such as wind, tides and currents, and waves that could influence the spread or
orientation of a potential liquified natural gas (LNG) spill over water;
(3) Potential hazards resulting from an liquified natural gas (LNG) spill over water, such as cryogenic damage or thermal
damage to the vessel or other structure, which might lead to cascading failures of additional structures and systems
or several damage to the liquified natural gas (LNG) container;
(4) The location and magnitude of a potential liquified natural gas (LNG) spill where the hazards from a spill, such as
fire and thermal radiation, might impact or damage other critical infrastructures or facilities such as bridges, tunnels,
petrochemical or power plants, government buildings or military facilities, national icons, or population or business
centers;
(5) Potential impact on the regional natural gas supplies from the damage of an liquified natural gas (LNG) vessel,
unloading terminal, or loss of use of a waterway or harbor due to the immediate or latent affects of a spill.
A S P H Y X I AT I O N P O T E N T I A L
AND
I M PA C T S
Methane, an ingredient of liquified natural gas (LNG), is considered a simple asphyxiant; but it has low toxicity to
humans. In a large-scale liquified natural gas release, the cryogenically cooled liquid liquified natural gas would begin to
vaporize upon its release due to the breach of an liquified natural gas container. If the vaporizing liquified natural gas
(LNG) does not ignite, the potential exists that the liquified natural gas vapor concentrations in the air might be high
enough to present an asphyxiation hazard to the ships crew, pilot boat crews, emergency response personnel, or others
that might encounter an expanding liquified natural gas (LNG) vaporization plume. To date, experimental data show
that vaporization from an liquified natural gas (LNG) spill tends to spread essentially in a cigar-shaped, disk pattern due
to the high-density characteristics of liquified natural gas. The vapor cloud spreads out in a mostly broad, flat
PA G E 64
Physiological Effects
20.9
159
Normal.
19.0
144
16.0
121
14.0
106
12.5
95
< 10.0
< 76
ANSI Z88.2-1992 standard requires air-supplying respirators for workers who enter an atmosphere having less than 16%
oxygen at sea level. The ANSI standard assumes that nearly all workers will be able to escape from an atmosphere
having 16% oxygen, even if it requires a moderate amount of exercise, such as climbing a ladder. When oxygen
concentrations are less than 19.5% oxygen at sea level, ANSI Z88.2-1992 standard requires workers to use air-supplying
respirators that have an emergency air supply for escape purposes. It assumes that some workers will be injured or
debilitated by a 12.5% oxygen atmosphere, to the point at which they could not escape. ANSIs recommendations are
intended to protect nearly all workers; and it assumes that workers are medically qualified and fit for duty. Workers are,
on average, more fit than the general population. To summarize, any reduction in oxygen concentrations will carry some
risk to the population, because there will always be sensitive individuals. These probably include people with pulmonary
or heart disease. On the basis of the references that were reviewed, it appears that minimal permanent injuries or deaths
should occur in a physically fit and medically qualified population from a transient release of methane, if oxygen
concentrations do not drop below 12.5% at sea level. If concentrations do not drop below 14% oxygen at sea level, the
frequency of permanent injuries or deaths in the general population should be minimal as well. Of greater issue will be
the potential for a fire from ignition of an liquified natural gas (LNG) cloud.
SPILL DISPERSION
AND
THERMAL HAZARDS
If ignition occurs immediately upon spillage, then non-pre-mixed combustion occurs. In industrial spills, non-pre-mixed
combustion is referred to as a fire, and the fuel-air mixing rate is controlled by flow turbulence. In laboratory settings,
non-pre-mixed combustion is referred to as a diffusion flame, because mixing is controlled by diffusive processes.
Specifically for liquified natural gas (LNG) spills, the fire would be referred to as a spill or pool fire, as the liquid
spilling from the ship results in a quasi-steady-state fire. The hazard from this type of combustion is thermal, primarily
driven by radiating heat flux. Other types of non-pre-mixed combustion, including jet and spray flames, are not relevant
to liquified natural gas (LNG) spills, due to liquified natural gas low storage pressure and low boiling point. If mixing
occurs before ignition, then the resulting combustion is pre-mixed. In industrial accident settings, two forms of premixed combustion can occur, depending upon the strength of the ignition source and geometric factors. The two forms
are termed deflagration and detonation. Deflagration is the most likely mode to occur. Because the fuel is pre-mixed
with air, the flames spread at a rate relative to the chemical mixture (flame speed) and the rate at which turbulent
mixing can enhance the flame area. Deflagrations differ in their consequences, depending on whether they occur in
confined or unconfined volumes. In large open areas, the hot combustion products are buoyant and will entrain the air
into the fuel mixture. The result is known as a fireball. In enclosed volumes, the combustion will result in pressure
PA G E 65
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E X P L O S I O N H A Z A R D S A N A LY S I S
generation due to confinement of the volume expansion of the hot gases. The result is usually the failure of the
enclosure. These events are loosely termed explosions. Propane leaks in houses are a typical example. If ignition occurs
sometime during mixing, not before mixing takes place and not at the end when the fuel is completely mixed, then a
mixture of combustion modes will result. Generally, a pre-mixed combustion event will occur first, followed by a nonpre-mixed combustion event; and pre-mixed combustion occurs faster than most mixing events. Thus, upon ignition, a
pre-mixed flame will propagate from the ignition source to the spill location. This phenomenon is known as a flashback.
It can generate high pressures or result in a slow burn or fireball. The flame will anchor on the spill source and a fire will
result at the spill source for the duration of the spill.
T H E S I M P L I F I E D S I M U L AT I O N M O D E L
AND
T H E O RY
The distance and thermal damage to structures from a range of different spills iss calculated based on the following
selection of nominal spill conditions: (1) spill calculations drainage from a non-pressurized tank with a single hole, and
(2) the diameter of the spill was determined by assuming a steady state where the mass coming in is balanced by the
mass going out. Note that, for all calculations in this example, a tank with volume of 25,000 m 3 could be expected to
spill approximately 12,500 m3. An initial liquid height in the tank above the breach of 15 meters and a density of 450
kgm3 for liquified natural gas (LNG) can be used. First apply the continuity equation,
dm
=AvinAv out
dt
[4.01]
If (Av)in is null,
dm
=Av out
dt
[4.02]
where is the specific mass (kgm3), A is the area (m2), and v is the velocity (ms1). Mass can be express as V, and
the volume (V) becomes,
V =Ath
[4.03]
where At is the cross-sectional area (m2) of a cylinder (e.g tank or circular container), and h is the height (m).
Substituting into Equation [4.02],
d Ath
=Av out
dt
[4.04]
The velocity of the fluid coming out of the tank can be expressed as a function of height through invoking Bernoullis
equation,
1
1
2
2
v t p t ght = v 0 p 0gh0
2
2
[4.04]
1
gh t= v 20
2
[4.05]
v 0= 2ght
[4.06]
and
v 0 =C d 2ght
[4.06]
PA G E 66
t=
At
2
hi h
g C dA0
[4.07]
Then the height of liquid throughout time can be determined. Total time to drain is given by the following expression,
t=
At
2
h i
g C dA0
[4.08]
The flow rate will be greatest at the beginning of the spill, due to the hydrostatic head having a maximum. The flow rate
has a linear dependence on time, so an average flow rate was determined by dividing the maximum flow rate by 2. The
maximum flow rate can be found by substituting Equation [4.06] into Equation [4.02], and using m = V to express in
terms of volume per time. Then,
dV
dt
avg
Av
2
out
C dA0
2ghi
2
[4.09]
Equation [4.09] was used for the calculations to determine the average flow rate out of the tank. The diameter of the
spill was determined by assuming a steady state where the mass coming in is balanced by the mass going out, due to the
heat flux from the heating of the water below and from the fire above, denoted by vtotal.Thus,
Av in = Avout
dV
dt
= Av out =
avg
[4.10]
D 2
v total
4
[4.11]
and
D=
4
dV
v total dt
[4.12]
avg
H =6.2D
a gD
0.254
u0.044
[4.13]
The radiative flux incident (q) upon an object can be determined by,
q=E pF
[4.14]
where Ep is the average emissive power (kWm2), is the transmissivity, and F is the view factor. In order to determine
distance to a specified radiative flux incident we need the non-dimensional distance from the flame axis as a function of
view factor and fire height-to-radius ratio. Because radiative flux incident (q), average emissive power (Ep), and
PA G E 67
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E X P L O S I O N H A Z A R D S A N A LY S I S
transmissivity () are specified, the view factor (F) can be determined by Equation [4.14], and height-to-radius ratio
from Equation [4.13]. Then the thermal hazard distance can be determined.
L
(height-to-pool diameter) would probably be much smaller than that predicted by existing correlations. The
D
L
correlations predict an
ratio between one and two, while a more realistic ratio for a mass fire would be under 0.5.
D
the
The view factor is very sensitive to flame height at distances not close to the fire (greater than one pool diameter). View
factors are used to determine how much radiative flux an object receives. Thus, if a more realistic flame height is used,
lower than that which is typically calculated, then the amount of heat flux that an object receives would be less, thereby
decreasing the thermal hazard zone. The zone could be decreased by a factor of two to three, depending upon the
damaging heat flux levels of interest. Various correlations for flame height have been developed for a range of pool
diameters up to 30 meters. The height-to-pool diameter correlations are typically expressed in terms of a nondimensional heat release rate (Q). As pool diameter increases, the non-dimensional heat release rate (Q) decreases
because it is proportional to
1
and Zukoski states that there are different transition regions that occur. For very
D
large pool fires, the flame breaks up into a number of independent flamelets as non-dimensional heat release rate (Q)
decreases, and the flame height depends on the diameter and the heat release rate. For high non-dimensional heat
release rate (Q), the height of the flamelets appears to become roughly independent of the source-diameter and depends
only on the local heat release rate per unit area (or fuel flow per unit area). This assumptions is based upon pool fire
tests where fuel vaporization is not affected by a substrate such as water. It is unknown what the limiting diameter for
break up is for liquified natural gas (LNG) pool fires on water.
t=4.6M 0.2
[4.15]
in which the fuel mass (M) is in metric tons and the time (t) is given in seconds. Similarly, the maximum radius of the
fireball is given as,
R=23M 0.35
[4.16]
in which the fuel mass (M) is in metric tons and the radius (R) is given in meters. Unlike a pool fire, however, the
fireball is of short duration (in the order of seconds to tens of seconds), depending upon the mass of fuel in the air. The
fireball will entrain and burn all flammable vapors and provide an ignition source to the underlying liquid spill. The
overall threat from a fireball is typically not of primary concern if a long duration pool fire follows it.
FIRE
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E X P L O S I O N H A Z A R D S A N A LY S I S
to occur, the fuel-air concentration must be above the minimum flammable limit (lean limit) and below the maximum
flammable limit (rich limit). For liquified natural gas (LNG), these limits are 3.8% to 17% fuel by volume. If the fuel
concentration is within these limits and encounters an ignition source, it will ignite and burn. Because of the moderate
flammability range, the amount of time lapse between dispersal and ignition is limited. For low reactivity fuels such as
natural gas, combustion will usually progress at low velocities and not generate overpressure. Certain conditions,
however, might cause an increase in burn rate that does result in overpressure. If the fuel-air cloud is confined, is very
turbulent, or progresses through obstacles, a rapid acceleration in burn rate might occur (Benedick et al., 1987). In
extreme cases, the burn rate might increase to supersonic velocities. This is known as deflagration-to-detonation
transition (DDT). Under specialized conditions, pre-mixed combustion can result in a detonation. This mode is not
common and is generally considered to be very unlikely (but not impossible) to occur in most industrial accident
situations, such as an liquified natural gas (LNG) spill. Detonations have the highest power density of any combustion
mode and, thus, result in the highest pressures and most damage. In a detonation, the combustion front typically travels
at Mach 5 and, for hydrocarbons, has a peak pressure about 15 times the initial pressure. A detonation can be directly
initiated in a fuel and air mixture from high initiation pressures or, under very limited circumstances, it can transition
from a deflagration to a detonation (called DDT, or deflagration to detonation transition in the pre-mixed combustion
literature) under conditions involving confinement. In industrial accidents, detonations are also sometimes called
unconfined vapor cloud explosions. In military literature, gas phase detonations are termed fuel-air explosions (FAE).
Detonation is the most violent form of fuel-air combustion. For detonation to occur, the fuelair mixture must be within
the minimum and maximum detonation limits. These limits are much narrower than flammability limits. To ignite a
fuel-air mixture within the limits of detonation, shock initiation is necessary. Shock initiation can be produced by
igniting the fuel-air cloud with an explosion or by the deflagration-to-detonation transition involving confinement.
For low reactivity fuels, the initiation energies are quite large and unlikely to occur in an accidental breach, but might be
possible in an intentional breach or tank rupture scenario.
Table 4.04 Properties of common hydrocarbon fuels.
Lower Flammable
Limit (Vol., %)
Upper Flammable
Limit (Vol., %)
Methane
5.5
14.0
55.5
650
161
Ethane
3.0
12.5
51.9
472
89
Ethylene
2.7
36.0
50.3
490
104
Acetylene
2.5
82.0
49.9
305
84
Propane
2.2
9.5
50.3
450
42
Propylene
2.4
10.1
48.9
455
48
Propyne
2.1
12.5
48.3
NA
23
Octane
1.0
6.5
47.9
NA
126
Fuel
Spilled liquified natural gas (LNG) could become trapped between the inner and outer hulls which, if ignited, could lead
to an explosion. In general, large releases will involve sufficient liquified natural gas (LNG) for this space to be fuel rich.
Of greater concern are small leaks where a flammable mixture could develop. Another potential for an explosion is if
liquified natural gas (LNG) is spilled without an ignition source, such as an intentional spill from premature offloading of
liquified natural gas. In this scenario, there could be extensive volumes of liquified natural gas (LNG) that can be spilled
either onto the ship or onto the water surface without and ignition source. These type of approaches have been
considered and used and are very sensitive to environmental and meteorological conditions (Tieszen, 1991). Therefore,
the potential for this type of event exists, but actually getting an explosion can be difficult. Table 4.04 provides some
physical and chemical properties of hydrocarbon fuels. Further, all fuels become less able to detonate if they are not
perfectly mixed to stoichiometric proportions. For many sources, refined liquified natural gas (LNG) has a high
percentage of methane at the wellhead compared to natural gas. The level of refinement of natural gas stored as liquified
natural gas can have an effect on detonation sensitivity, with a less processed product being more sensitive to
detonation.
PA G E 70
Anderson R. P., and Armstrong D. R., 1972. Experimental Study of Vapor Explosions, 3rd international conference on
liquefied natural gas, Washington, DC.
American National Standard for Respiratory Protection, ANSI Z88.2-1992. American National Standards Institute,
New York, 1992.
Barry, Thomas (20021). Risk-Informed Performance-Based Industrial Fire Protection, Tennesse Valley Publishing, p. 50.
Beard, R., 1982. Inorganic Compounds of Oxygen, Nitrogen, and Carbon, in Pattys Industrial Hygiene and Toxicology,
Volume 2C: Toxicology, George D. Clayton and Florence E Clayton, editors, Wiley Interscience, New York.
Benedick, W. B., Tieszen, S. R., and Sherman, M. P., 1987. Flame Acceleration and Transition to Detonation in
Channels. Sandia National Laboratories Report SAND-87-1444C.
Berthoud, G. (2000) Vapor Explosions, Annu. Rev. Fluid Mech., 32, 673-611.
Blackmore, D. R., Eyre, J. A. and Summers, G. G., 1982. Dispersion and Combustion Behavior of Gas Clouds Resulting
from Large Spillages of LNG and LPG on to the Sea , Trans. I. Mar. E. (TM) 94, paper 29.
Blevins, R. D., 1984. Applied Fluid Dynamics Handbook, Van Nostrand Reinhold Company, Inc., pp. 136-141.
Boyle, G. J. and Kneebone A., 1973. Laboratory Investigations Into the Characteristics of LNG Spills on Water.
Evaporation, Spreading and Vapor Dispersion, Shell Research Ltd., Thornton Research Centre, Cester, England, Report
6-32, March.
Bradley, T.M. et al., 2001. Flame Acceleration Due to Flame-Induced Instabilities in Large-Scale Explosions, Comb. and
Flame, 124, 551-559.
Brandeis, J. and Ermak, D. L., 1983. Numerical Simulation of Liquefied Fuel Spills: II. Instantaneous and Continuous
LNG Spills on an Unconfined Water Surface, Int. J. for Num Meth. In Fluids, Vol. 3, 347-361.
Chan, S. T. et al., 1984. Numerical Simulations of Atmospheric Releases of Heavy Gases Over Variable Terrain, Air
Pollution Modeling and its Applications III, 295-328.
Chan, S. T., September, 1997. A Three-Dimensional Model for Simulating Atmospheric Dispersion of Heavy-Gases
Over Complex Terrain, UCRL-JC-127475, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.
Drake, et al., 1975. Transient Boiling of Liquefied Cryogens on a Water Surface: II. Light Hydrocarbon Mixtures, Int. J.
Heat Mass Transfer, Vol. 18, 1369-1375.
Hirst, W. J. S. and Eyre, J. A., 1983. Maplin Sands Experiments 1980: Combustion of Large LNG and Refrigerated
Liquid Propane Spills on the Sea, Heavy Gas Risk Assessment, 211-224.
Jazayeri, B., 1975. Impact Cryogenic Vapor Explosions. M.S. Thesis, MIT, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Lee, J. H. S. and Moen I. O., 1980. The Mechanism of Transition from Deflagration to Detonation in Vapor Cloud
Explosions, Prog. Energy Combust. Sci., Vol. 6, 359-389.
Mizner, G. A., and J. A. Eyre, 1983. Radiation from Liquefied Gas Fires on Water. Combustion Science and Technology,
Volume 35, pp. 33-57.
Moen, I. O., 1993. Transition to Detonation in Fuel-Air Explosive Clouds, J. Haz. Mat., 33, 159-192.
Napier D. H. and Roochland, D. R., 1984. Ignition Characteristics of Rapid Phase Transition Explosions, Combustion
Institute Canadian Section 1984 Spring Technical Meeting.
Porteous, W. M. and Blander, M., 1975. Limits of Superheat and Explosive Boiling of Light Hydrocarbons, Halocarbons
and Hydrocarbon Mixtures, AIChE Journal, 31(3), 560-566.
Pritchard, M. J., and T. M. Binding, 1992. FIRE2: A New Approach for Predicting Thermal Radiation Levels from
PA G E 71
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E X P L O S I O N H A Z A R D S A N A LY S I S
Hydrocarbon Pool Fires. IChemE Symposium Series, No. 130, pp. 491-505.
Tieszen, 1991. Gaseous Hydrocarbon-Air Detonations, Combustion & Flames, Vol 84, pg 376-390, 1991.
Zukoski, E. E., 1995). Properties of Fire Plumes, in Combustion Fundamentals of Fire (ed. G. Cox), pp. 101-219.
Academic Press, London.
PA G E 72
Chapter 5
ef
INTRODUCTION
A computer model for evaluating fire protection systems in industrial buildings is presented. The model has been
developed as a tool to assist fire protection engineers, building officials, fire service personnel and researchers in
performing fire safety engineering calculations, and can be used to conduct hazard and risk analyses, as well as to
evaluate whether a selected design satisfies established fire safety objectives. While the model is primarily designed for
use in warehouses and aircraft hangars, it can be modified for application to other industrial buildings. This chapter
describes the framework for the model, along with its capabilities and flexibility. Individual models used to perform
calculations are discussed, particularly those that calculate fire development and life hazard. Methods used by the model
to conduct risk assessments are also briefly described. The model has been designed as a tool that can be used to support
performance-based fire protection engineering design. The individual models included in the overall system are based on
accepted fire protection engineering practice and were chosen to give an appropriate level of sophistication, and still
result in a system that can be run in a reasonable length of time on a desktop personal computer. This would allow for
use of the system by all of the intended parties, and facilitate the examination of multiple fire scenarios and fire
protection engineering options. The model allows the user to perform a number of fire protection engineering
calculations in order to evaluate fire protection systems in industrial buildings. At startup, the model provides several
calculation options, which allow the user to:
(1) Use standard engineering correlations;
(2) Run individual models;
(3) Conduct a hazard analysis;
(4) Conduct a risk analysis.
The standard engineering correlations model is a collection of relatively simple equations that can be used to quickly
perform simple fire protection engineering calculations. The model contains procedures for calculations in the general
areas of fire development, plume dynamics, smoke movement, egress, fire severity and ignition of adjacent objects. The
model can also be used to evaluate whether a fire protection system for a building will satisfy specific fire safety
objectives. This can be done using individual models, or through a hazard or risk analysis. For example, individual
models can be used to evaluate single components of a fire safety design, such as the time of activation of heat detectors
or sprinklers, the time to flashover and the time of failure of construction elements.
Qt =t 2
[5.01]
where Q is the heat release rate of the fire at any time (kW), is the fire growth coefficient (0.1876 kWs2), and t is
the time (s). This heat release rate (Q) is limited to the maximum heat release rate possible based on either the amount
of fuel in the compartment or the oxygen that can be supplied to the fire from the compartment and through ventilation
PA G E 73
FIRE
E X P L O S I O N H A Z A R D S A N A LY S I S
AND
openings. The duration of a confined pool fire is calculated using the volume of fuel burned, the dike area and the
burning rate of the fuel, which are specified by the user. The model assumes that the diameter of a pool fire increases
linearly with time to the maximum diameter (Dmax) entered by the user. This maximum diameter of the pool fire is
assumed to be its equilibrium diameter (the spill rate equals the burning rate). The time required to reach this maximum
diameter (tmax) is given by the following equation,
D max
t max =0.564
gv fDmax
1
3
[5.02]
where vf is the burning (regression) rate of the fuel (ms1), and g is the acceleration due to gravity (m2s1). The
thermal radiation heat fluxes from the pool fire to a point located 1 meter from the ground at various distances are
calculated using the solid flame model of Mudan and Croce. A height of 1 meter was chosen so as to be representative
of the mid-section of a person. The following equation is used to calculate thermal radiation heat fluxes at a distance
from the fire,
q t=qeF t
[5.03]
where q is the emissive power of the pool fire (kWm2), F(t) is the view factor from the pool fire to the point, calculated
using the height and diameter of the flame (0 F 1), is the atmospheric transmissivity (it can be assumed to be 1.0
because of the relatively short distances considered), and is a safety factor. The emissive power of the flame is
calculated using the following equation,
q e =E feDE s 1eD
[5.04]
where Ef is the maximum emissive power of the visible portions of the fire (140 kWm2), Es is the maximum emissive
power of the smoky portions of the fire (20 kWm2), is an experimentally determined parameter (0.12 m1), and D is
the pool diameter (m). The fire development model provides the heat fluxes from the pool fire to the life hazard model
to calculate the probability of death from exposure to high heat fluxes. The fire development model also supplies the
building element failure model with information to calculate the convective and radiative heat fluxes from the fire to
the boundaries of the compartment. The ceiling im pingement gas temperature (Tce) and the effective plume
temperature (Tep) used to evaluate the time to failure of ceilings and walls of the compartment, respectively, are given by
the following equations,
T ce t =T amb0.22
k WQt 3
H
5
3
[5.05]
where Tce is ceiling impingement gas temperature (K), Tamb is the ambient temperature (C), kw is a factor to take into
account the effect of the compartment walls on the temperature of the hot plume gases (kw = 1 if no walls are nearby;
kw = 2 if the fire is close to one wall default value; kw = 4 if the fire is in a corner), Q is the heat release rate of the fire
at any time (W), and H is the distance or height between the top of the fuel and the ceiling (m).
T 4ep t=T 4f t
H f t
H t
T 4ce t 1 f
Hc
Hc
[5.06]
where Hf(t) is the height of the flame given in Equation [5.07] below from the correlation (m), Hc is the height of the
compartment (m), Tf is flame temperature (K), and Tep is effective plume temperature (K).
2
H f t=0.011 k wQt 5
[5.07]
PA G E 74
SUPPRESSION EFFECTIVENESS
The suppression effectiveness can be calculated by the effect of candidate automatic suppression systems on fires in the
building or compartment. The model requires the user to input a suppression effectiveness value () from 0 to 1, which
quantifies the ability of the automatic suppression devices to control the fire scenarios being considered. This value is
then used to modify the fire heat release rate, diameter, thermal radiation heat fluxes and plume temperature. The heat
release rate curve, Q(t), from the fire development model or another source is input to the suppression effectiveness.
The suppression effectiveness value is used to produce a modified heat release rate curve, Q m(t). If the suppression
system effectiveness is 1, the fire is controlled so that the heat release rate remains at its value at the time of automatic
suppression system activation (i.e. Qm = Qact). If the effectiveness is 0 (or near zero), the original heat release rate curve
(Qo) will not be modified (i.e. Qm = Qo). If the effectiveness is between 0 and 1, the modified heat release rate will be
calculated at each time step using the following equation,
[5.08]
In the case where heat release rate values decay, any value of Q(t), which is below Q act, is not modified in any way. This
helps ensure that the suppression effectiveness does not increase the value of Q(t) in this situation. Heat fluxes and
temperatures calculated using Equation [4.03] through Equation [4.07] are then corrected using the modified heat
release rate data.
F I R E D E PA RT M E N T R E S P O N S E
AND
EFFECTIVENESS
The fire department response is used to determine the expected fire department response and intervention times, which
are calculated using the times estimated for notification, dispatch and preparation, travel and set-up. These calculations
are based on factors such as the fire scenarios selected by the user and activation times for the detectors in the building.
The presence of fire alarms in the building, their direct connection to the fire department (some buildings may be linked
to a dispatch station through an alarm that will directly notify the fire department in case of fire), the occupant response
to fire cues or other warning signals, the location of the building relative to the fire department, preplanning, traffic
volume, and street arrangement should also be considered for calculations. Once the fire department activities begin,
the effectiveness of these activities is estimated according to information on the fire development at the time
suppression commences and the resources (e.g. equipment, water and human resources) available to the fire
department. Factors such as the nature of the fire department (e.g. professional, volunteer or a combination of both),
firefighter experience and training are also considered in this calculation.
O C C U PA N T R E S P O N S E
AND
E VA C UAT I O N
The occupant response and evacuation information are used to track the movement of occupants in the building during
the selected fire scenarios, based on the occupant characteristics entered by the user. The characteristics include the
location of the occupant and their age. Calculations take into account the processes of perception (occupants become
aware of fire by means of direct perception of fire cues, warning by alarm or others, etc.), interpretation (occupants make
a decision to respond), and action (e.g. occupants call the fire department, pull the alarm, begin to evacuate, etc.). This
is different from most occupant evacuation models, which assume that the occupants respond immediately to a fire
alarm, or cue, which is not the case in occupant evacuation field studies or in real life.
PA G E 75
FIRE
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E X P L O S I O N H A Z A R D S A N A LY S I S
The subject of life safety in fire has been studied by a number of researchers and the information has been produced in
the SFPE Handbook (National Fire Protection Association), International Organization for Standardization (ISO) and
National Fire Protection Association (NFPA). National Fire Protection Association / SFPE provides technical guidance
on the subject of life safety. International Organization for Standardization (ISO) has published a technical specification
document and a standard (ISO/TS 13571 and ISO/DIS 13344), to provide the necessary requirements and the technical
guidance to evaluate life safety in fire. The National Fire Protection Association life safety code handbook also provides
details on the life safety requirements and guidance to achieve these requirements. Life hazard model calculates the
time-dependent probability of death for occupants in a compartment due to the effects of being exposed to high heat
fluxes and hot and/or toxic gases. The life hazard model uses input from other models that describe the heat fluxes (fire
development and smoke movement models) in the compartment, and the temperature and chemical composition of hot
gases (smoke movement model). The time-dependent probability of death from exposure to high thermal radiation heat
fluxes (PTR) at a given location in the compartment, is calculated using the sum of the heat fluxes from the fire
(calculated by fire development model) and from the hot smoke layer (calculated by the smoke movement model). The
revised vulnerability model of Tsao and Perry is used to calculate the probability of death from the heat flux data. This m
odel uses the following probit equation,
Y =12.82.56ln I dose
[5.09]
where Y is the probit function, and Idose is the thermal dose in (kWm2)4/3s1 units. The thermal dose (Idose) is calculated
using the following equation,
t
4
3
I dose t= qt dt
[5.10]
where q is the incident heat flux (kWm2), and t is the exposure duration (s). For a square wave heat flux (i.e. a
constant value), Equation [5.10] reduces to the following equation,
4
[5.11]
I dose t=qt 3t
The probit function (Y) is then used to determine the probability of death due to thermal radiation heat fluxes,
Y 5
1
P TR=
e 2 d
2
[5.12]
Life hazard model only considers the toxic effects of carbon dioxide (CO2) and carbon monoxide (CO), because in most
practical fire situations, the effects of carbon monoxide (CO) are the most important. Carbon dioxide (CO 2) will affect
the rate of breathing and hence will affect the intake of carbon monoxide (CO). The fractional incapacitating dose due
to carbon monoxide (FIDCO) is calculated carbon monoxide (CO) using the following equation and the concentration of
carbon monoxide (CO) at a specified height in the compartment of interest,
t
C CO t 1.036
FID CO t = 8.292510
dt
30
0
4
[5.13]
where FIDCO(t) is the fractional incapacitating dose of carbon monoxide (CO), and CCO(t) is the concentration of
carbon monoxide (CO) at a given time (t) in parts per million (ppm). The fractional incapacitating dose (FID) is
defined such that the dose will be lethal when FID is equal to 1. The default height for these calculations is 1.5 meters.
While it can be argued that all individuals can crawl under a smoke layer at this height, this height was chosen so as to
be conservative. The user can also specify other heights for this calculation, depending on the occupancy. The
concentration of carbon monoxide (CO) is used to calculate a factor (FCO2) which is used to increase the fractional
incapacitating dose of carbon monoxide (FIDCO) to incorporate the increase in the breathing rate due to carbon dioxide
PA G E 76
F CO2 t=
1 0.2496C
e
6.8
CO2
t 1.9086
[5.14]
where FCO2(t) is the multiplication factor for carbon dioxide-induced hyperventilation, and C CO2(t) is the percentage (%)
of carbon dioxide (CO2) by weight in the compartment of interest. The total fractional incapacitating dose (FID TG) for
toxic gases is calculated using the following equation,
[5.15]
This total fractional incapacitating dose (FIDTG) is then used as the probability of death due to breathing toxic gases (i.e.
PTG = FIDTG). The life hazard model also considers the probability of death due to breathing or being exposed to hot
gases (PHG). This probability is equal to the fractional incapacitating dose for exposure to hot gases (FIDHG), calculated
using the following equation,
t
FID HG t=
0
1 [5.18490.0273T
e
60
t ]
[5.16]
dt
where TS(t) is the temperature of the hot gases at a height of 1.5 meter in the compartment of interest (C). Equation
[5.16] is based on data from the literature for human tolerance times in experimental exposures to dry and humid air at
elevated temperatures. An fractional incapacitating dose for exposure to hot gases (FIDHG) of 1.0 is said to represent the
point where a person would become incapacitated by the exposure to the hot gases because of heat stroke, skin burns
and respiratory tract burns. The total probability of death, PD(t), at a given location in the compartment is calculated
using the union of the individual probabilities of death from being exposed to high thermal radiation heat fluxes, and
breathing hot or toxic gases,
P D t=P TR t P TG t P HG t
[5.17]
In order to calculate the total probability of death in any compartment using the life hazard model, the compartment is
first divided into a number of rings from the fire. Equation [5.17] is used to calculate the total probability of death
within each of the rings. The total probability of death for the compartment is then calculated using a weighted sum of
the probabilities of death in each of the rings,
P C ,i t =
i
P D ,i t Ai
AC
[5.18]
where PC,i(t) is the total probability of death for compartment C, P D,i(t) is the probability of death for ring i, A i is the area
contained inside ring i, and AC is the total area of compartment C.
EXPECTED NUMBER
OF
D E AT H S
The expected number of deaths model calculates the number of occupants expected to die in each compartment with
time. This calculation is based on the residual population in each compartment computed by the occupant evacuation
model and the probability of death in that compartment computed by the life hazard model. At each time step, the
expected number of deaths are computed by multiplying the probability of death at that time with the residual live
population at that time,
END t= P C ,i t POP R ,C t
C
[5.19]
where END(t) is the expected number of deaths in the building at time t, PC,i(t) is the probability of death for
compartment C at time t, and POPR,C (t) is the residual live population in compartment C at time t.
PA G E 77
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E X P L O S I O N H A Z A R D S A N A LY S I S
ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES
The economic model for consequences calculates the costs of the building, fire protection systems, and contents based
on information provided by the user. The sensitivity of the different parts of the building and contents to heat, smoke
and water are also input by the user. Damage to the building and contents are then estimated for the fire scenarios
selected by the user based on information from the fire development and smoke movement models and the sensitivities
of the building and contents. These damage estimates can then be used along with the cost information to estimate the
value of the property loss to the building and its contents. More detail on the model can be in found in references.
Hazard analysis calculates the consequences of a specific fire scenario beginning in a specific compartment in the
building or facility. The results of hazard analysis are the expected number of deaths, the expected cost of property and
equipment damage and the expected interruption of business operations (downtime). The steps involved in hazard
analysis for a multi-compartment building or facility are shown in Table 5.01 along with the models involved and their
outputs. The user first specifies the compartment of fire origin and the fire scenarios that would occur in each
compartment. In order to make hazard analysis calculations manageable, we should consider the fire spread to adjacent
compartments.
Table 5.01 Hazard analysis steps and outputs.
Phase
Output
Project efinition
Fire development
Fire detection
Suppression effectiviness
(sprinkler operation)
Occupant response
Fire department effectiveness Modified heat release rates, modified temperatures and modified heat
(operations)
fluxes.
Building element faiure
Smoke movement
Fire spread
Occupant evacuation
Life hazard
Economics
Downtime
PA G E 78
Fire Development
The fire is estimated to reach flashover prediction at 221 seconds, and the maximum heat release rate of 20 MW at 330
seconds, when the fire runs out of fuel.
Detection and Suppression
The description presented here is an example for guidance. The fire location can be assumed to be located in the middle
of the space and centered between a set of sprinklers (if we assumed they exist). The sprinklers act as detectors and are
assumed to have a response time index (RTI) of 80 ms, and an activation temperature of 85C. The sprinklers are
calculated to activate at 46 seconds. Although the sprinklers activate, they are assumed to have no effect on a fire of
this magnitude, because of the nature of the fuel. There is a series of sprinklers located along the dome-shaped roof in
the large space. Activation times are calculated by combining the time at which the smoke interface falls below the
roller door and the time for the sprinkler to activate. This activation time is based on the heat release rate in the
compartment of fire origin and an assumed fire area equivalent to the door width by 0.5 m. The height of the sprinklers
is defined by the arc length along the dome, continuing down to the floor. The lowest sprinkler is considered to be
located at 9.4 m along the wall, and the highest at 31.9 m along the wall. The lowest sprinkler in the hangar is predicted
to activate at 108 seconds, and the highest is predicted to activate at 300 seconds.
Fire Department Response and Effectiveness
The fire department is notified by an automatic alarm that sounds with the activation of the sprinklers. The fire
department is located 1 km away from fire location. The fire department is predicted to intervene within 10 minutes of
being notified. The fire department response is being calculated the dispatch, preparation, and travel time to be 10 s, 46
s, and 109s, respectively. When these times are added to the notification time of 46 s, determined by the sprinkler
activation, it is predicted that the fire department will respond at 211 seconds. The fire department effectiveness is not
considered because the predicted intervention time (646 seconds) is longer than the times at which flashover and the
peak heat release rate are reached (221 s and 330 s, respectively). In addition, the fire in the compartment of fire origin
starts to decay after 330 seconds because all fuel is consumed.
Occupant Response
All occupants in the compartment of fire origin are predicted to take action in approximately 135 seconds, and all
occupants in the remaining compartments are predicted to take action in approximately 260 seconds. The time the fire
department would be notified by an occupant is compared with the time that the fire department is notified due to the
activation of the sprinkler. Notification by an occupant is predicted to occur at 67 seconds. As it was calculated earlier
that the fire department is automatically notified when the sprinkler system activates at 46 seconds.
Building Element Failure
Using the time and temperature data calculated by the fire development model, the 150 mm thick concrete walls of the
building are predicted to fail after 155 minutes. The failure time is based on the absence of fire department action
because the fire runs out of fuel and starts to decay after 330 seconds.
Smoke Movement Analysis
The ventilation system is assumed closed which represents the worst-case scenario. Since kerosene (assume fuel type) is
assumed as the fuel source, the smoke movement analysis predicts no carbon monoxide (CO) production. Predictions of
carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations in the building indicate a gradual increase, reaching 15% after 330 seconds.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations in the large space and the main space reach much lower concentrations of 1%
and 4%, respectively. The temperature increases rapidly for 320 s up to about 830C. Temperatures in the large space,
and the main space are much lower because of the larger room volumes. The hot gas layer in the building descends from
4.0 m (the ceiling), at ambient temperature, to 0.5 m above the floor at 320 seconds. The hot gas layer falls to a height
of 1.5 m above the floor at about 130 s, which is assumed to represent untenable conditions for occupants in the
building. The hot gas layers in the large space and the main space do not drop below a height of 1.5 m above the floor.
Occupant Evacuation
The occupant load for each compartment is selected based on the National Building Code of Canada, which defines the
maximum number of persons per unit area. The total number of occupants in the modelled portion of the building is
169. Table 5.02 shows the distribution of this occupant load and the exit distance for each compartment. The occupant
evacuation analysis assumes that all occupants can exit the building with the same travel speed, because the majority of
PA G E 79
FIRE
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E X P L O S I O N H A Z A R D S A N A LY S I S
15
Welding facility
11
Industrial facility
10
23
Main workshop
61
30
Large hangar
76
34
It is predicted that all of the occupants in the compartment of fire origin will evacuate in approximately 140 seconds. All
the other occupants are predicted to evacuate the building within approximately 275 seconds.
Feng, P., Hadjisophocleous, G. V., and Torvi, D. A., 2000. Equations and Theory of the Simple Correlation Model of
FIERAsystem, IRC Internal Report No. 779, Institute for Research in Construction, National Research Council
Canada, Ottawa, ON.
ISO DIS 13344, Estimation of the Lethal Toxic Potency of Fire Effluents, International Organization for
Standardization, ISO/TC 92/SC 3, Draft Edition, 2004.
ISO TS 13571, Life-Threatening Components of Fire Guidelines for the Estimation of Time Available for Escape
Using Fire Data, International Organization for Standardization, First Edition, 2002.
Mudan, K. S. and Croce, P. A., 1995. Fire Hazard Calculations for Large Open Hydrocarbon Pool Fires, SFPE Handbook
of Fire Protection Engineering, Second Edition, National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, MA pp. 3-1973-240.
Purser, D. A., 1995. Toxicity Assessment of Combustion Products, SFPE Handbook of Fire Protection Engineering,
Second Edition, National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, MA, pp. 2-85 - 2-146.
Ron Cot, Editor, 2000. Life Safety Code Handbook, 8th edition, National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, MA,
2000.
SFPE Handbook of Fire Protection Engineering, Second Edition, National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, MA,
1995.
Torvi, D. A., Hadjisophocleous, G. V., and Hum, J., 2000. A New Method for Estimating the Effects of Thermal
Radiation from Fires on Building Occupants, HTD-Vol. 366-5, Proceedings of the ASME Heat Transfer Division,
Orlando, Florida, pp. 65-72, December.
Torvi, D. A., Raboud, D. W., and Hadjisophocleous, G.V., 1999. FIERAsystem Theory Report: Life Hazard Model, IRC
Internal Report No. 781, Institute for Research in Construction, National Research Council of Canada, Ottawa, ON.
Watts, J. M. and Chapman, R. E., 2002. Engineering Economics, SFPE Handbook of Fire Protection Engineering, 3rd
edition, National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, MA, pp. 5-93 - 5-104.
Yung, D., Hadjisophocleous, G. V., Proulx, G. and Kyle, B. R., 1996. Cost-Effective Fire-Safety Upgrade Options for a
Canadian Government Office Building, Proceedings, International Conference on Performance-Based Codes and
Design Methods, Ottawa, ON, pp. 269280.
PA G E 80
Chapter 6
ef
INTRODUCTION
A study of environmental impact on humans was carried by DNV Technica and Scandpower on behalf of Statoil in
September 1993. The main objective of the study was to carry out a state of the art study on environmental impacts on
humans and provide a consistent set of criteria for use in fatality assessments in offshore and onshore risk analyses.
Impact criteria for the following loads were established:
(1) High air temperature.
(2) Thermal incident fluxes.
(3) Explosion loads.
(4) Toxic gases.
(5) Obscuration of vision.
It should be noted that the different effects should be seen in light of each other in order to identify the most critical
one. However, fatal situations are often a result of a combination of the above mentioned parameters, together with
panic among personnel. Probit functions, table values and charts which can be used to calculate the fatality rate for
given loads and exposure times are presented in the following. It is important to use the results from the probit
functions, table values and charts as guidance in the fatality assessment, rather than absolute values. In the fatality
assessment load and exposure time are important parameters. Consequence calculations should form the basis for the
assessment describing loads as a function of distance and exposure time taken into account shielding effects. Possibilities
for personnel to escape from the accident venue, effect of protective measures as clothes and smoke masks are important
aspects to address in the fatality assessment. In general offshore personnel will have less possibilities to escape from a
large accident compared to onshore personnel. However, in general onshore personnel are lightly clothed compared to
offshore personnel, making them more vulnerable to radiation in the immediate vicinity of the accident. In the following
we should have present some definitions and terms used in this chapter.
LD xx =I nt
[6.01]
where I is the incident flux (kWm2), t is the exposure time (seconds) and n is a constant equal to four-thirds.
LCxx is the time related dose (concentration over time) which would be lethal to a given percent (xx) of the population.
Toxic dose is defined by the following equation,
LC xx =C nt
[6.02]
where C is the concentration in parts per million (ppm), t is the exposure time in minutes and n is a constant.
Probit, is the range of susceptibility in a population to a harmful consequence can be expressed mathe matically using a
criterion in the form of an equation which expresses the percentage of a defined population which will suffer a defined
level of harm (normally death) when it is exposed to a specified dangerous load. This is a Probit equation which has
the form,
P r =abln I nt
[6.03]
where Pr is the probit (or the probability measure); a, b and n are constants. I is the radiation intensity given in kWm2
and t is the exposure time in seconds.
PA G E 81
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THERMAL EFFECTS
The main effects of high air temperature or incident heat fluxes is of physiological and pathological art. The impact
criteria contained in this text relate to impact from short and long duration of high air temperature which may cause
heat stress resulting in fatal outcome and of thermal radiation which may cause first, second, third degree burns or fatal
outcome. Inside living quarters, control rooms or other compartments where personnel should be safe in a fire situation,
the air temperature may become too high leading to physiological effects on humans such as difficulties with breath
resulting in incapacitation, high pulse or core temperature leading to collapse. In most cases the air temperature inside
the enclosures will not be sufficiently high for that pathological effects such as skin burns to be dominant. However,
during escape or at the evacuation stations personnel may be directly exposed to the fire and ther mal radiation may be
more critical than the air temperature and pathological effects will be dominant. Type of fire, the distance from the fire
and the timeof exposure are very important parameters in the assessment of fatalities. On an offshore platform it is
believed that personnel will be exposed to a fire for a longer time due to short distances and more time is needed to
evacuate the platform than on an onshore installation. However, in general offshore personnel are more protectively
clothed than onshore personnel, making them more resistant against thermal radiation. The majorities of the data are
given for lightly clothed personnel which is representative for onshore personnel. However, some data are also presented
for well clothed personnel which is representative for offshore situations.
PHYSIOLOGICAL EFFECTS
Most physiological effects of thermal radiation onto man involve voluntary exposures which are relatively lengthy, i.e. at
least several minutes. However, inside living quarters, control rooms or other types of compartments exposed to fire
where personnel may stay for a period of time, they will be exposed to low thermal radiation levels and instead high air
temperature may become the most critical parameter. Personal trapped inside a helicopter due to a fire following a
helicopter crash may be on example of a fire where high temperature and not heat radiation becomes critical. Table 6.01
indicates some physiological effects of elevated temperature levels on the human individual based on full-scale fire tests.
Table 6.01 Elevated temperature response on human individuals.
Temperature (
(C)
Physiological Response
127
Difficult breathing.
140
149
160
182
203
Respiratory systemes tolerance time less than four minutes with wet skin.
Elevated temperatures have influence on the pulse rate. The pulse rate climbs steadily with time and air temperature.
The pulse jumps from normal 84 to 120 beats a minute when the air temperature increases to 100C. It further increases
to 150 beats per minute after 10 minutes at an air temperature of 113C. In general the maximum air temperature that
can be tolerated by the human respiratory tract is approximately 203C. Above air temperatures of 150C, the impact is
dominated by pain from skin burns, which occur in less than 5 minutes. Between air temperatures of 70C and 150C,
the impact is dominated by difficulties to breath. It is believed that below 70C the situation inside a compartment will
not be fatal, but may of course lead to an uncomfortable situation for personnel. No probit function has been developed
on this matter, hence special assessment must be made to calculate the fatality rate among trapped personnel inside
compartments if the temperature in side rises to between 70C and 150C. The average time to incapacitation (tinc) has
been proposed as follows for temperatures between 70C and 150C.
1
t inc=5.33108 3.66
T
[6.04]
where tinc is the exposure time (minutes) until incapacitation, and T is the temperature (C). With temperatures of 70C
and 150C inside a compartment, time to incapacitation may be 94 minutes and 6 minutes respectively based on the
above presented equation and curve.
PA G E 82
PAT H O L O G I C A L E F F E C T S
Pathological effects on humans are relevant to address in the immediate vicinity of the accident, on unshielded escape
ways and evacuation stations and inside enclosures if radiation becomes a dominant factor (above 150C). Pathological
effects covered in this text are:
(1) Pain.
(2) First degree burns.
(3) Second degree burns.
(4) Third degree burns.
(5) Fatal burns.
Thermal doses required to reach second degree burns and third degree burns are approximately the same doses as 1%
fatality and 50% fatality respectively to averagely dressed exposers. The severity of an injury from heat is determined by
the depth of skin to which a temperature difference of 9K has occurred. The following burn types are reached for
different depths of skin:
(1) First degree burns (< 0.12 mm).
(2) Secon d degree burns (< 2 mm).
(3) Third degree burns (> 2 mm).
Thickness of skin varies from more than 5 mm on the back to only 0.5 mm on the eyelids, but on average is between
1mm and 2 mm. In the assessment of fatality rates on an offshore or onshore installation it is important to take into
account the following factors:
(1) Information prior to fire (alarms).
(2) Development of accidents.
(3) Personnel reaction time.
(4) Emergency procedures.
(5) Escape time.
(6) Shielding effects.
(7) Radiation levels as a function of time.
(8) Total exposure time.
(9) Other critical aspects like visibility, toxic gases, explosion loads etc.
In Table 6.02 ranges of thermal doses required to give pain and burns are given. For a given radiation level or a given
exposure time, time or necessary radiation level to pain, first, second or third degree can be calculated by use of the
thermal doses presented in Table 6.02 and Equation [6.01].
Table 6.02 Ranges of thermal doses required to give pain, burns and fatal outcome.
Effect
Thermal Dose
[(kWm
[(kWm2)4/3s]
Pain
85 129
600 800
250 350
210 700
900 1,300
500 3,000
2,000 3,000
> 3,000
The fatality rate when personnel is exposed to thermal radiation over a given period of time can be calculated by use of
probit functions. Several probit functions have been developed based on experiments carried out on animals and
humans. The most known probit functions are the Eisenberg function for naked skin and the TNO function for naked
skin. The Eisenberg probit function is based on experiments carried out at nuclear explosions. The TNO model is based
on the Eisenberg probit function adjusted for experiments carried out at hydrocarbon fires. Compared to the probit
PA G E 83
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function from Eisenberg, the TNO model for naked human skin comes up with higher fatality rate. The thermal dose
required for a given lethality level is in general lower for hydrocarbon fires than for nuclear explosions, because radiation
from hydrocarbon fires is long waved penetrating deeper into the skin compared to the radiation from nuclear explosions
which is short waved. It is believed that the TNO model is more suitable for use in the estimation of fatality levels than
the Eisenberg model in typical offshore and onshore risk analyses where personnel are directly exposed to the fire,
because the TNO model is based on hydrocarbon fires. However, the calculated fatality rates should be used as guidance
in the fatality assessment more than as absolute values. The TNO model for naked human skin is as follows,
4
3
[6.05]
P r =12.82.56I t
The calculated fatality rates for different thermal incident fluxes and exposure times by use of the TNO probit function
presented above are shown in Table 6.03.
Table 6.03 Fatality rate as a function of radiationlevel and exposure time for naked human skin.
Fatality Rate (%)
Exposure Time
2
(s)
10 kWm
kWm 20 kWm
kWm2 30 kWm
kWm2
10
39
20
53
93
30
11
87
100
40
31
97
100
50
53
99
100
60
71
100
100
If the probit function is not directly used in the fatality assessment, it is recommended to use the following radiation
levels for lightly clothed personnel as 100% fatality limit in the below given exposure time intervals:
(1) 16 kWm2 Exposure time less than 0.5 minute.
(2) 10 kWm2 Exposure time from 0.5 minute to 1 minute.
(3) 4 kWm2 Exposure time from 1 minute to 2 minutes.
(4) 2 kWm2 Exposure time from 2 minutes to 10 minutes.
The critical radiation levels are based on the TNO probit function assuming that the 50% fatality limit represents the
lethal dose for an average person and that incapacitation occurs close to the lethal dose, i.e. 75% of the LD50 is set as the
incapacitation dose here. This corresponds to 81% of the lethal incident radiation flux. For clothed personnel the
Neisser curve, is recommended to use assuming that the 50% fatality limit represents the lethal dose for an average
person and that incapacitation occurs close to the lethal dose, i.e. 75% of the LD 50 is set as the incapacitation dose. This
corresponds to 81% of the lethal incident radiation flux. It is recommended to use the following radiation levels for
clothed personnel as 100% fatality limit in the below given exposure time intervals:
(1) 25 kWm2 Exposure time less than 0.5 minute.
(2) 13 kWm2 Exposure time from 0.5 to 1 minute.
(3) 8 kWm2 Exposure time from 1 minute to 2 minutes.
(4) 4 kWm2 Exposure time from 2 minutes to 10 minutes.
The approach assumes a constant heat load over the exposure period. In reality, most fires will initially expand and then
decay with time, and thus the radiation received at any given point will also be a function of time. A full integration of
the dose received may be performed if greater detail is required.
PA G E 84
EFFECTS OF EXPLOSIONS
People can survive fairly strong blast waves and in accidental explosions there are very few cases in which the blast effect
has killed people directly. Typical in juries following an explosion are caused by:
(1) Burn.
(2) Hitting fragments.
(3) Buildings or other structures falling down or being disintegrated.
(4) Persons falling or "flying" and subsequently hitting a solid object (i.e. whole body displacement).
Important parameters for determining the effects and the risk from an explosion are:
(1) Maximum overpressure.
(2) Time to reach the maximum overpressure.
(3) Indoor or outdoor exposure of people.
(4) Possibility at flying fragments.
(5) Designed pressure sustainability of building.
In a risk analysis the most important effects are:
(1) Flying fragments hitting personal.
(2) To hole body displacement resulting in impact damage.
(3) Damage due to impact coused by collapsed structures.
Overpressure Effects
If the long axis of body is parallel to blast winds and the subject is facing any direction the acceptable overpressure will
increase. If the thorax is near a reflecting surface that is perpendicular to the blast winds the acceptable overpressure will
decrease.
Fragments Effects
Flying fragments from an explosion are more dangerous than the bare overpressure. Fragments may be debris from
demolished buildings caused by the explosion or loose equipment in the building. Fragments from glass breakage is a very
common type of serious and extreme dangerous type of fragments, possibility for glass fragments must be determined
during an analysis of explosion effects. The pressure needed for breakage of conventional glass is:
(1) 1% level glass breakage (Ppeak = 1.7 kPa).
(2) 90% level glass breakage (Ppeak = 6.2 kPa).
Table 6.04 shows the expected effects of flying missiles from an explosion.
Table 6.04 Injuries from missiles from an explosion.
Injury
7 15
15
512
15 20
30
1,024
25 35
55
1,877
50 55
90
3,071
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E X P L O S I O N H A Z A R D S A N A LY S I S
wall about 40% will suffer major injuries. Table 6.05 shows the expected effects from hole body displacement.
Table 6.05 Criteria for tertial damage involving totalbody impact.
Total Body Impact Tolerance
Most "Safe"
3.05
Lethality threshold
6.40
Lethality (50%)
16.46
42.06
TOXIC EFFECTS
Gas Fire
Liquid Fire
0.04
0.08
3.0
3.1
10.9
11.8
8.2
9.2
Oxygen (O2)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
On an onshore installation the possibilities to escape from the accident are greater than on an offshore installation.
Based on this offshore personnel will be exposed to toxic gases over a longer time period leading to in general lower
acceptable concentrations than on an onshore installation. The consequences of inhalation of toxic chemicals can only
be derived from animal experiments. The uncertainties in translating animal data to data relevant for humans are large
and therefore safety factors are included in the modelling. In general animals have a higher adsorption rate and
humans have a higher respiratory rate in accident situations.
PA G E 86
EFFECTS
OF
C A R B O N M O N OX I D E
Extensive investigations examining human fire fatalities have shown carbon monoxide to be the primary toxicant in
many deaths due to smoke inhalation. The toxicity of carbon monoxide is due to the formation of blood
carboxyhemoglobin, which results in a reduced ability of the blood to transport oxygen to critical body organs referred to
as anaemic anoxia. There exist further evidence that relatively low levels of carboxyhemoglobin saturation may have
adverse effects on reaction time which is important to escape from a fire. The toxicity of carbon monoxide may be
modified by heat stresses. Experiments on test animals under heat stress showed that blood carboxhemoglobin
concentrations at the time of death were much lower than in animals not stressed by heat. The following physiological
effects on human individuals from carbon monoxide is given below:
(1) 1,500 ppm Headache after 15 minutes, collapse after 30 minutes, death after 1 hour.
(2) 2,000 ppm Headache after 10 minutes, collapse after 20 minutes, death after 45 minutes.
(3) 3,000 ppm Maximum safe exposure for 5 minutes, danger of collapse in 10 minutes.
(4) 6,000 ppm Headache and dizziness in 1 minute to 2 minutes, danger of death in 10 to 15 minutes.
(5) 12,800 ppm Immediate effect, unconscious after 2 to 3 breaths, danger of death in 1 to 3 minutes.
The above presented effects of carbon monoxide (CO) indicates that with several thousand parts per million (ppm) of
carbon monoxide (CO) in the atmosphere will cause very critical situations on an offshore installation or an onshore
installation. Several probit functions have been developed based on experiments data from animals. However, the
following probit function is recommended to use in the fatality assessment,
P r =37.983.7ln C COt
[6.06]
where CCO is the carbon monoxide (CO) concentration, and t is time exposure elapsed (s). In Table 6.07 the lethality
levels for different carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations and exposure times by use of the probit equation (Equation
[6.06]) are presented. In this table also the necessary carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations and exposure time for a
50% lethality level are presented.
Table 6.07 Lethality level for different carbon monoxide concentrations and exposure times.
Fatality Rate (%) After
10 Minutes Exposure
Lethality Level
(50% deaths)
0.0
1.5
35.0
2,000
54
4,000
27
6,000
18
8,000
13
10,000
11
Based on a 50% lethality level it can be concluded that the probit function is more or less consistent with the previous
presented threshold limits.
EFFECTS
OF
C A R B O N D I OX I D E
While carbon dioxide is not particular toxic at levels normally observed in fires, moderate concentrations do stimulate
the rate of breathing. This condition may contribute to the overall hazard of a fire gas environment by causing
accelerated uptake of toxicants and irritants. The rate and depth of breathing are increased 50% by 20,000 ppm of
carbon dioxide (CO2) and doubled by 30,000 ppm carbon dioxide in air. At 50,000 ppm, breathing becomes laboured
and difficult for some individuals, although this concentration of carbon dioxide has been inhaled for up to one hour
without serious after effects. Table 6.08 illustrates carbon dioxide responses. No probit functions have been found in the
literature describing the lethality level of different carbon dioxide (CO 2) concentrations and exposure time. Based on
this the following 100% fatal limits of carbon dioxide (CO2) are recommended to use for different exposure times:
(1) 150,000 ppm of CO2 Exposure time less than 5 minutes.
PA G E 87
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E X P L O S I O N H A Z A R D S A N A LY S I S
(2) 120,000 ppm of CO2 Exposure time between 5 minutes and 30 minutes.
(3) 100,000 ppm of CO2 Exposure time greater than 30 minutes.
Table 6.08 Carbon dioxide responses.
Concentration of
Carbon Dioxide (ppm)
Response
100,000
120,000
150,000
200,000
EFFECTS
OF
OX Y G E N D E P L E T I O N
Oxygen constitutes 21% by volume of clean air. Decreases in oxygen concentration down to about 15% are
counteracted by the body increasing the flow of blood to the brain, and only minor effects on motor coordination are
apparent. Oxygen concentrations below 15% by volume produce oxygen starvation effects such as increased breathing,
faulty judgement and rapid onset of fatigue. Oxygen concentrations below 10% cause rapid loss of judgement and
comprehension followed by loss of consciousness, leading to death within a few minutes. This is taken to be the limiting
oxygen concentration for escape lasting a few seconds. If escape is not possible within few seconds, incapacitation and
death is assumed to occur. Oxygen concentrations of 10% and 15% require a clean air content in the mixing gas of 47%
and 71% respectively. These would be achieved when the gas is diluted to 52% and 29% respectively of its
concentration. A gas concentration of 52% would cause death unless escape is possible in a few seconds. Table 6.09
indicates the responses of human individuals to different reduced levels of oxygen in air.
Table 6.09 Human responses due to reduced levels of oxygen in air.
Concentration of
Oxygen in Air (%)
Response
11
32
No probit functions are found in the literature describing the lethality level for personnel when exposed to different
concentrations of oxygen in the air and exposure time. Based on this the following fatal limits of oxygen (O2) depletion
are recommended to use for different exposure times:
(1) 10% of O2 Exposure time less than 5 minutes.
(2) 15% of O2 Exposure time greater than 5 minutes.
The combined effects of carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide(CO2) and oxygen depletion are the main causes of
fatalities in smoke. The criteria for them are compared in Table 6.10. For the under ventilated fires, carbon monoxide
(CO) has the main effect, which depends strongly on exposure time. For well-ventilated fires, carbon monoxide (CO)
production is much reduced and oxygen depletion appear to have main effect. Based on this the following
concentrations of smoke may cause very critical situations (nearly 100% fatality rate) among exposed personnel after few
seconds:
(1) 52% of smoke in well-ventilated gas fuelled fires.
PA G E 88
Gas Fire
Liquid Fire
33
32
92
85
Oxygen (O2)
56
56
56
56
Combined effects
52
48
19
18
The combined effects of carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide(CO2) and oxygen depletion are a difficult task and the
above pre sented values should be used as guidance only to identify the problem.
EFFECTS
OF
O THE R GA SE S
Table 6.11 illustrates the effects likely to be experienced by humans exposed to various concentrations of hydrogen
sulphide (H2S).
Table 6.11 Effects on people exposed to hydrogen sulphide.
Concentration of
Hydrogen Sulphide (ppm)
20 30
50
Effect
Conjunctivitis.
Objection to light after 4 hours exposure. Lacrimation.
150 200
200 400
250 600
500 1,000
1,000
1,000 2,000
> 2,000
Several probit functions have been developed based on experiments data from animals. However, the following probit
function is recommended to use in the fatality assessment,
P r =31.423.008ln C 1.43t
[6.07]
where C is the hydrogen sulphide concentration, and t is time of exposure. The probit function is to some degree more
conservative than the values presented in Table 6.11. The toxicological effects of nitrogen oxides (NOx), ammonia
(NH3), sulphur dioxide (SO2) and hydrogen fluoride (HF) are given in Table 6.12. In Table 6.13 predicted lethal
concentrations for humans and published values are given.
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E X P L O S I O N H A Z A R D S A N A LY S I S
Table 6.12 Toxicological effects of nitrogen oxides, ammonia, sulphur dioxide and hydrogen fluoride.
Toxicant
Toxicological Effects
Nitrogen oxides
Strong pulmonary irritant capable of causing immediate death as well as delayed injury.
Ammonia
Sulphur dioxide
Toxicant
Human Lethal
Concentrations (ppm)
5 minutes
30 minutes
Ammonia
55,000
2,000
Sulphur dioxide
17,000
8,000
600 800
Hydrogen fluoride
44,000
4,600
Nitrogen oxides
410
180
250
Several probit functions have been developed for ammonia (NH3), sulphur dioxide (SO2) and hydrogen fluoride (HF).
Below probit function for each of these gases are presented to use in the fatality assessment. The probit function for
ammonia (NH3) is as given,
P r =9.820.71ln C 2t
[6.08]
where C is the ammonia concentration (ppm) and t is the exposure time (minutes); LC 50 = 15,240 ppm for 5 minutes
exposure. The probit function for sulphur dioxide (SO2) is the following,
P r =16.672.10ln Ct
[6.09]
where C is the sulphur dioxide concentration (ppm) and t is the exposure time (minutes); LC 50 = 3,765 ppm for 5
minutes exposure. The probit function for hydrogen fluoride (HF) is given by,
P r =48.334.853ln Ct
[6.10]
where C is the hydrogen fluoride concentration (ppm) and t is the exposure time (minutes); LC 50 = 11,845 ppm for 5
minutes exposure. No probit model is found in the literature for nitrogen oxides (NOx).
OBSCURATION OF VISION
The absence of vision may delay or prevent escape from fires and cause people to be exposed to the fire gases for an
unacceptable long period of time. While the exposure to high concentrations of toxic and hot gases usually will be
significant only in the vicinity of the fire, the effect of reduced visibility may also be significant far away from the fire
source. For example, in multi-compartment buildings, the smoke blocking effect may be significant in rooms far away
from the room of fire origin. Moreover, the smoke blocking effect is reported to be the first condition becoming critical
of the three hazardous conditions of fires (i.e. heat stresses, obscuration of vision, toxic effects). The hazard of smoke is
characterized by three factors. The first threat is reduced visibility due to soot. The second is that hot smoke can cause
pain and injuries, and the third is that a concentration of toxic and irritating components can lead to incapacitation or
death. The relative order of these factors can be found by comparison of threshold values with actual exposure in a fire
scenario. A visibility of 4 meters to 5 meters is about the threshold of diminished performance, and this is the smoke
PA G E 90
American National Standard for Respiratory Protection, ANSI Z88.2-1992. American National Standards Institute,
New York, 1992.
Department of Housing and Urban Development. Safety Considerations in Siting Housing Projects, 1975. HUD Report
0050137.
Finney, D. J., Probit Analysis . Cambridge University Press, 1977.
Fire Protection Handbook. National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, Massachusetts, 18th edition, 1997.
G. Opschoor, R. O. M. Van Loo, and H. J. Pasman. Methods for Calculation of Damage Resulting from Physical Effects
of the Accidental Release of Dangerous Materials, in International Conference on Hazard Identification and Risk
Analysis, Human Factors and Human Reliability in process safety, pages 2132. Center for Chemical Process Safety,
AIChE, 1992.
Fire Protection Handbook, Ed., McKinnon GP, 14th ed., 1976, NFPA, Boston, Mass.
McCracken, D. J., 1970. Hydrocarbon Combustion and Physical Properties, Ballistic Research Laboratory Report No.
1496, Aberdeen Proving Ground, Aberdeen, MD.
National Fire Protection Association (NFPA). Industrial Fire Hazards Handbook, 3 rd Edition. NFPA, Inc., Quincy, MA,
1990.
NFPA 325, Fire Hazard Properties, Flammable Liquids, Gases and Volatile Solids, National Fire Protection Association.
Assn. Boston, 1994, pp. 4-5.
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