Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Eric Schneider2
Jacob Weisdorf3
Introduction
Theory
Data
Net reproduction
Conclusion
What we do
There are two main demographic explanations of the Rise of the West
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Introduction
Theory
Data
Net reproduction
Conclusion
Introduction
Theory
Data
Net reproduction
Conclusion
Introduction
Theory
Data
Net reproduction
Conclusion
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Introduction
Theory
Data
Net reproduction
Conclusion
Theory
Purpose: analyze main components of net reproduction rate n(c).
Following Baudin, de la Croix and Gobbi (2016), we use the following
decomposition:
n(c) = m(c) (1 z(c)) b(c) (1 d(c))
(1)
c: social class,
m(): marriage rate,
z(): fraction of childless married women,
b(): number of birth conditionally on having children,
d(): infant mortality rate.
(assumes singles do not have children, and fully homogamous marriage)
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Introduction
Theory
Data
Net reproduction
Conclusion
child mortality
d(c)
chil
z (c) dlessness
adult mortality
celibacy
1 m(c)
birth b(c)
delaying marriage
15
0%
% women
100%
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Introduction
Theory
Data
Net reproduction
Conclusion
New Margins
Literature focuses on the intensive margin: b(c) (1 d(c))
and usually (1 d(c)) b0 (c) b(c) d0 (c) > 0 i.e. evolutionary
advantage to the high social class
Does it still hold when all margins are accounted for ?
n0 (c) = (1 z(c))b(c)(1 d(c)) m0 (c) m(c)b(c)(1 d(c)) z0 (c)
{z
marriage margin
{z
childlessness margin
{z
one needs to estimate z(c), m(c), b(c) and d(c) from data.
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Introduction
Theory
Data
Net reproduction
Conclusion
Parish registers
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Introduction
Theory
Data
Net reproduction
Conclusion
Introduction
Theory
Data
Net reproduction
Conclusion
Parish of Banbury
1766
Elizabeth
burial 1768
Elizabeth Treadwell
1733
1770
bapt. wife 1
1766
marriage
bur. wife 1
Inn Holder
burial 1808
Printer
1770
marriage
? John Cheney
Victualler
1802
bur. wife 2
Nicholls
Elizabeth
1771
Inn Keeper
1773
In 1967 the renowned business family of
Cheney decided to mark 200 years of
printing in Banbury by publishing a book
to celebrate this remarkable milestone.
1775
1777
1778
1782
1786
John
John
Elizabeth Ann
burial 1772
mar. 1794
Sarah
burial 1777
Ann
burial 1780
Thomas
mar 1812
William
burial 1786
burial 1820
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Introduction
Theory
Data
Net reproduction
Conclusion
Occupations
Labourers/Servants
Husbandmen
Craftsmen
Traders
Farmers
Merchants/Professionals
Gentry
Unknown
incl. seamen
small farmers, weavers
tailors, carpenters
innkeepers, butchers, bakers
clerks, medical, printers
gentlemen, esquire
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Introduction
Theory
Data
Net reproduction
Conclusion
Occupations (2)
9 per cent of the fathers occupations changed over life cycle.
Assign maximum social group if reasonable. Assign unknown otherwise.
1
17666
87.6%
0
2
1087
5.4%
11827
92.0%
0
3
624
3.1%
463
3.6%
14440
95.5%
0
4
330
1.6%
168
1.3%
368
2.4%
7904
90.8%
0
5
187
0.9%
230
1.8%
38
0.3%
129
1.5%
3528
95.4%
0
6
229
1.1%
139
1.1%
236
1.6%
578
6.6%
78
2.1%
3516
93.8%
0
7
37
0.2%
28
0.2%
43
0.3%
96
1.1%
91
2.5%
232
6.2%
1581
100%
Introduction
Theory
Data
Net reproduction
Conclusion
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Introduction
Theory
Data
Net reproduction
Conclusion
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Introduction
Theory
Data
Net reproduction
Conclusion
0.08
0.06
0.02
0.04
hazard rate
0.10
0.12
20
25
30
35
40
age
Introduction
Theory
Data
Net reproduction
Conclusion
Proba. marrying
Haz. ratio
0.325
0.331
1.00
0.92
0.82
0.83
1.09
0.72
0.72
0.01
0.01
0.00
-0.02
-0.00
0.01
UnknownOccupation
0.093
0.91
0.00
Observations
4 Period dummies
26 Parish dummies
Note:
8,611
yes
yes
0.085
0.193
0.181
0.081
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Introduction
Theory
Data
Net reproduction
Conclusion
0.8
0.75
0.7
0.65
0.6
Unknown
Labourers,
Servants
Husbandmen
Craftsmen
Traders
Farmers
Merchants,
Professionals
Gentry
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Introduction
Theory
Data
Net reproduction
Conclusion
Mean
St. D.
Min
Q(25)
Med.
Q(75)
Max
14,730
12,517
0.850
1.37
0.357
1.35
0
0.00
1
0.72
1
0.94
1
1.52
1
18.01
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Introduction
Theory
Data
Net reproduction
Conclusion
1.0
0.0
0.5
hazard rate
1.5
2.0
age
Introduction
Theory
Data
Net reproduction
Conclusion
Dependent variable:
coef
0.030
0.013
0.038
0.203
0.185
0.249
1.00
0.97
0.99
0.96
0.82
0.83
0.78
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.02
0.02
UnknownOccupation
0.284
0.75
0.00
Observations
4 Period dummies
26 Parish dummies
14,730
yes
yes
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Introduction
Theory
Data
Net reproduction
Conclusion
0.15
0.13
0.11
0.09
0.07
0.05
Unknown
Labourers, Husbandmen
Servants
Craftsmen
Traders
Farmers
Merchants,
Professionals
Gentry
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Introduction
Theory
Data
Net reproduction
Conclusion
Introduction
Theory
Data
Net reproduction
Conclusion
Mothers Completed Fertility = 1 + P1
1 + P2
1 + P3 . . .
1+
Pn
1 Pn
b(c) = s0
1 + s1 P1
1 + s2 P2
1 + s3 P3 . . .
1+
sn Pn
1 sn P n
Introduction
Theory
Data
Net reproduction
Conclusion
Dependent
variable:
Proba.
2sd child
Proba.
3rd child
Proba.
4th child
Proba.
5th child
Proba.
6th child
0.099
0.126
0.183
0.196
0.231
0.119
0.070
0.047
0.166
0.117
0.189
0.157
0.051
0.100
0.231
0.164
0.207
0.385
0.087
0.166
0.280
0.043
0.155
0.258
0.049
0.149
0.015
0.032
0.132
0.385
UnknownOccupation
0.019
0.029
Observations
12,519
7,280
10,738
8,993
5,679
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Introduction
Theory
Data
Net reproduction
Conclusion
Dependent
variable:
Labourers & Servants
Husbandmen
Craftsmen
Traders
Farmers
MerchantsProfessionals
Gentry
UnknownOccupation
Observations
Proba.
7th child
Proba.
8th child
Proba.
9th child
Proba.
10th child
0.068
0.103
0.007
0.083
0.069
0.233
0.462
0.215
0.269
0.305
0.055
0.481
0.699
0.050
0.074
0.212
0.116
2,959
1,932
0.022
0.233
0.110
0.219
0.375
0.069
4,201
0.050
0.327
0.287
0.004
0.224
1,154
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Introduction
Theory
Data
Net reproduction
Conclusion
Labourers, Husbandmen
Servants
Craftsmen
Traders
Farmers
Merchants,
Professionals
Gentry
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Introduction
Theory
Data
Net reproduction
Conclusion
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Introduction
Theory
Data
Net reproduction
Conclusion
Dependent variable:
Proba. of death
0.027
0.045
0.008
0.054
0.043
Unknown Occupation
0.003
Observations
4 Period dummies
26 Parish dummies
48,865
yes
yes
0.006
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Introduction
Theory
Data
Net reproduction
Conclusion
Net Reproduction
Compare net reproduction with the intensive margins only:
n(c) = m
(1 z) b(c) (1 d(c))
to net reproduction with all margins:
n(c) = m(c) (1 z(c)) b(c) (1 d(c))
Labourers, Servants
Husbandmen
Craftsmen
Traders
Farmers
Merchants, Professionals
Gentry
Unknown
Mean
m
0.80
0.77
0.73
0.74
0.82
0.68
0.68
0.77
0.76
1z
0.92
0.91
0.91
0.91
0.87
0.87
0.86
0.85
0.87
b
3.91
4.00
4.20
4.53
4.12
4.57
4.60
3.50
3.77
1d
0.75
0.75
0.74
0.74
0.75
0.74
0.74
0.75
0.75
n
2.14
2.09
2.08
2.24
2.21
2.01
1.98
1.70
1.87
n
1.95
1.99
2.07
2.23
2.06
2.24
2.26
1.74
1.87
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Introduction
Theory
Data
Net reproduction
Conclusion
Net Reproduction
2.300
2.200
2.100
2.000
1.900
Labourers,
Servants
Husbandmen
Craftsmen
Traders
Farmers
Merchants,
Professionals
Gentry
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Introduction
Theory
Data
Net reproduction
Conclusion
The different features of the West European marriage pattern were used
differently even within the boundaries of a single economy.
Gentry: High celibacy & childlessness rates
Labourers: Low birth rate within marriage
Middle class: Traders, farmers: higher net reproduction rate
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Introduction
Theory
Data
Net reproduction
Conclusion
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Introduction
Theory
Data
Net reproduction
Conclusion
Conclusion
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