FloodpredictionbyGumbelmethod

11 May 2013
Man Bahadur Rai
(Water Resources Engineer)
mbrai72@gmail.com
Flood frequency analysis is required to estimate the design flood for river engineering works like weir and
intake and river training works. The commonly used method for flood frequency analysis of flood prediction
in small hydropower is a Gumbel method. There are many flood prediction techniques but the Gumbel method
is a simple one and considered here.
1
= A dimensionless variable
= Return period (years)
0.577
1.2825
= Frequency factor
Chows equation
= Flood on T year return period (m3/s)
= Mean flood (m3/s)
= Standard deviation of flood
An example of flood prediction using Gumbel method is as follows. A typical flood data of Small River is
presented in Table 0-1. The flood data should be of instantaneous flood not a mean daily flood. These are the
maximum annual extreme flood records. There are 42 flood records in this example. At least 20 flood records
are required for better flood estimation.
Table 0-1: Flood data
Year
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970

Flood flow (m3/s)

20.44
20.52
15.01
15.28
-------104.67
6.58
10.90
21.15
----------------------------14.94
19.27
18.90
5.05
7.70

Year
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1

Flood flow (m3/s)

4.98
13.47
8.25
11.23
5.49
6.42
6.83
6.91
64.20
5.56
11.51
10.04
7.61
7.61
7.04
11.34
5.19
17.79

Year
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

Flood flow (m3/s)

7.35
4.77
6.91
5.81
4.52
19.12
10.25

Year
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002

Flood flow (m3/s)

4.24
20.05
--------------------7.52
19.12

Flood records of some of the years are missing. Those missing years should be ignored while computing the
flood prediction parameters. Data analysis and calculation can be done manually but Microsoft Excel can be
easier on analyzing the data if they are many for calculating mean and standard deviation. The method of
using excel for calculating mean and standard deviation of flood is presented in
Box 0-1.
Box 0-1: Calculation of mean and standard deviation
All flow data except missing year are put in a single excel column. There should be no input in the cell
of missing year or it should be deleted. Then use average formula as =AVERAGE(select all flood
data in this bracket). Press enter key. This will give mean flood.
Similarly use standard deviation formula as =STDEV(select all flood data in this bracket). Press
enter key. This will give standard deviation of the flood.
This is how the mean flood from above data is derived as 11.38 m3/s and standard deviation 17.37 m3/s.
Now if return period of the flood, T=100 years, then,
A dimensionless variable,
= 4.60
Frequency factor,
0.577
1.2825

4.60 0.577
1.2825

3.14

Mean flood, = 11.38 m3/s

Standard deviation,

=17.37 m3/s

Therefore, 100 years return period flood,

11.38

3.14

17.37

65.88 m /s
3

Design flood for small hydropower site are 1 in 100 years return period in case of instantaneous flood data.
Instantaneous flood data is not available in most of the small hydropower sites but mean daily flood data i.e.
yearly extreme mean daily flood record is available generally in most of the small hydropower sites. In such
case design flood can be considered as 1 in 200 years return period.
Design flood for temporary diversion during construction can be taken as 1 in 5 years flood. Similarly
operation flood beyond which power plant will be shut down can be taken as 1 in 10 years return period flood.
These flood are all based on the flood record of instantaneous flood data. These can be 1 in 10 years and 1 in
20 years respectively in case of annual mean daily flood data.