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SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS

Eco~

2206

I"TRODUCTORY ECOI\'OMETRICS

FINAL EXAMI~ATIO:'-!

SESSION 1,

2007

2. TOTAL NUMBER OF QUESTIONS - 6.

3. ANSWER ALL QUESTIONS.

4. ALL QUESTIONS ARE OF EQUAL VALUE (The marks awarded to each part of a question are indicated

- the total marks for this exam is 60).

5. CANDIDATES MAY BRING THEIR OWN CALCULATORS TO THE EXAM

6. STATISTICAL TABLES ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THE EXAM PAPER

7. ALL ANSWERS MUST BE WRITTEN IN PEN. PENCILS MAY BE USED ONLY FOR DRAWING,

SKETCHING OR GRAPHICAL WORK.

REMINDER: When performing statistical tests, always state the null and alternative hypotheses, the test statistic and it's distribution under the null hypothesis, the level of significance

and the conclusion of the test.

(i) Suppose that the correct population regression model is:

(1.1)

Xl,

(1.2)

(a) provide an unbiased estimate of the true population parameter

(b) provide an estimate of

/3 1 that

/31

? (2 marks)

(ii) Outline the advantages of using larger samples of data in regression analysis. (2 marks)

(iii) A model used analysing the effect of house characteristics on the sale price was:

log(price)

bdnns

+u

where price is the house price, area is the floor area of the house (measured in square metres), and bdrms

is the number of bedrooms. What is the partial effect on log (price) of increasing area by 1 square metre?

(2 marks).

(iv) What is the meaning of the term "contemporaneous exogeneity" as used in the context of time

series data? What is the difference between contemporaneous exogeneity and "strict exogeneity" as used in

multiple regression models for time series data? (2 marks)

The following regression model explains the monthly wages as a function of years of education (educ) , years

of labour market experience (exper) and current job tenure (tenure):

(2.1)

With a random sample of data the following output was obtained using SHAZAM:

I_sample 1 722

I_read wage educ exper tenure

4 VARIABLES AND 722 OBSERVATIONS STARTING AT OBS 1

I_genr Inwage=log(wage)

1_* Model estimates

I_ols Inwage educ exper tenure

REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR= 81 CURRENT PAR= 2000

OLS ESTIMATION

722 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE= LNWAGE

... NOTE .. SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 722

R-SQUARE = 0.1551 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.1524

VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.19493

STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.44151

SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 139.96

MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 6.7790

LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION

-438.839

VARIABLE

NAME

EDUC

EXPER

TENURE

CONSTANT

ELASTICITY

ESTIMATED STANDARD

T-RATIO

PARTIAL STANDARDIZED

AT MEANS

COEFFICIENT ERROR

718 DF P-VALUE

CORR. COEFFICIENT

0.1487

0.74864E-Ol 0.6512E-02 11.50

0.000

0.353

0.3905

0.0261

0.15328E-Ol0.3370E-02 4.549 0.000

0.147

0.1592

0.13375E-Ol0.2587E-02 5.170 0.000

0.167

0.1612

0.0143

0.8108

5.4967

0.1105

49.73

0.000

0.852

0.0000

Oi) Calculate the exact percentage effect of another year of education on the predicted wage level. (2 marks).

(iii) Test the null hypothesis that all the slope parameters in the model are jointly equal to zero using a 1

percent significance level. What do you conclude? (3 mark).

Note: The F-test statistic is given by the formula based on R 2 is:

F=

(R~r - R;)/q

(1 - R~r)/(n - k - 1)

where q is the number of restrictions, and ur and r stand for unrestricted and restricted models, respectively.

(iv) We are interesting in constructing a confidence interval for the (conditional) predicted log( wage) when

educ = 13, exper = 11 and tenure = 7. To obtain the standard error for the prediction we need to estimate

a transformed model that is equivalent to (2.1). Derive the transformed model which will give a direct

estimate of the prediction and the standard error of the prediction. (3 marks).

3

We are interested in analysing the effect of different house characteristics on the market price of the house

in the Sydney, and consider the following regression model:

log(price)

(3.1)

where price is the sale price (measured in $1000), lotsize is land area (square metres), sqrmtr (is the floor

area of the house (also measured in square metres), and bdTms is the number of bedrooms. Based on a

sample of data from 2005 house sales in Sydney, the following regression estimates were obtained:

log(price)

0.5481

(0.3945)(0.0823)

n

108,

R = 0.551,

(0.0353)

(0.0932)

-2

R = 0.538

(i) Construct a 90% confidence interval for ~3 (the coefficient on log(bdrms)). Is zero within the confidence

interval? (3 marks).

(ii) Given the estimation results, would you conclude that this is a good econometric model? Explain.

(3 marks).

(iii) We are concerned that the model in (3.1) may be misspecified. An alternative model specification where

all the variables are in level form (rather than in log form) is:

(3.2)

Outline a procedure for testing whether model (3.1) or model (3.2) is a better specification. What are the

limitations (if any) of the test? Explain. (4 marks)

In a recent study an economist examined the factors explaining whether a finn was taken over by another

firm during a given year. The dependent variable in the analysis was Takeover - which is a binary variable

equal to 1 if it was taken over (and 0 otherwise). The explanatory variables were profit which is the firm's

average profit rate over the previous five years, mktval which is the market value of the firm (in $100m), and

debtearn which is the debt-to-earnings ratio. The table below presents coefficient estimates (and standard

errors) based on a sample of 177 firms in 2004.

Table 4.1. Estimation Results for Takeover Models

Dependent Variable: Takeover

Variables

pro fit

0.251

(0.068)

mktval

-0.930

(0.287)

debtearn

-0.364

(0.249)

constant

-19.21

(4.839)

Observations(n)

177

0.233

R2

Note: The usual OL8 standard errors III () below the coefficient estimates.

(ii) What is the predicted probability of Ta [;;;v er for a firm with the following characteristics: profit = 0.05,

mktval = 1.5 and debtearn = 6 ? Briefly explain whether the result is sensible. (2 marks)

(iii) We know the Linear Probability Model must contain "heteroskedaticity". What is heteroskedasticity

and what are the consequences of heteroskedasticity for:

(a) estimation, and

(b) inference with the standard OL8 procedures?

(2 marks)

(iv) Given that we know the model contains heteroskedasticity, what advice would you give an economist

wishing to analyse the determinant of Takeover with regression methods? (4 marks)

The following regression model was proposed for analyse the effect of the minimum wage on employment:

where emprtet is the employment rate, minW9t is the minimum wage and GN Pt is GNP (a proxy for labour

demand) in year t.

(i) What is the interpretation of the coefficient

/3 1

? (2 mark).

(ii) Is this a "static" or "dynamic" model? What is the purpose of including the lagged term minW9t_l?

Briefly explain. (2 marks).

Using annual data from 1950-1987, the following regression model estimates were obtained:

log(emprtetl

n

(0.77)

(0.031)

38, R 2

= 0.661,

(0.015)

f(2

(5.2)

(0.089)

= 0.641

(iii) Test the null hypothesis that the lagged term minW9t-l is insignificant using a 10 percent significance

level and the one-sided alternative that the coefficent is negative (Ho: /3 2 = 0, HI : (32 < 0 ). (2 marks).

(iv) There is not enough information in the results presented in (5.2) to construct a confidence interval for

the Long Run Propensity (LRP). Rewrite the model in (5.1) into a form which you give you a direct estimate

of the LRP (and the standard error on the LRP). What parameter in this transformed model corresponds

to the LRP ? (2 marks).

(v) I am concerned that the model in (5.2) may suffer from the "spurious regression" problem. V/hat is the

spurious regression problem and what simple adjustment to the model would help reduce the possibility of

this problem? (2 marks).

'Ne are interested in analysing the effect of locating a water desalination plant on local property prices.

Desalination plants are large, industrial sites which can generate a lot of noise pollution and reduce amenities

in the local area. The South Australian government built a desalination plant in the Adelaide area of South

Beach in 1998. Discussion about building a desalination plant in South Beach began after 1994, and the

plant was built and began operating in 1998. We have data on the prices of houses sold in South Beach in

1994 (the "before" period) and another sample on houses sold in 2002 (the "after" period). The hypothesis

we wish to test is that the price of houses located near the site of the desalination plant would fall below the

price of more distant houses.

The data for each year includes the dummy variable nearplant which is equal to one if the house is

located within 3 kilometres of the desalination plant. The variable hprice denotes the real house price

(scaled by $10,000). The following simple regression model was estimated using only the year 2002 sample

of data:

hprice

(6.1)

(0.618) (0.992)

353, R 2

= 0.212

Using the 1994 sample, the following regression results were obtained:

hprice

16.527 - 3.679nearplant

(6.2)

(0.538) (0.615)

182, R 2

= 0.172

(i) What is the interpretation of the coefficient on the intercept term in model (6.2) (that is, what does the

value 16.527 represent) ? What is the interpretation of the coefficient on nearplant in model (6.2) ?

(2 marks)

(ii) Can you infer from the estimates in (6.1), based on the year 2002 data, that the location of the plant

caused the price of houses located nearby to fall by an average of $61,980 ? Explain. (2 marks)

(iii) An alternative approach is to pool the data for both years and estimate the following model:

hprice

(0.793) (0.9471)

(0.876)

(6.3)

(1.128)

535, R 2 = 0.202

where year2 is a dummy variable equal to one if the observation is for the year 2002 (and is equal to zero if

the observation is for the year 1994).

What is the estimated effect of the plant on neighbouring house prices based on the "difference-in-difference"

estimator? Is the effect significantly different from 0 at the 5% significance level? (use the one-sided

alternative hypothesis that the coefficient is negative). (3 marks)

(iv) What, if any, would be the advantages of collecting and using panel data to evaluate the effect of the

location of the desalination plant on local property prices? Explain. (3 marks).

7

1-Tailed:

2-Tailed:

1

e

g

e

e

s

0

f

F

e

e

d

0

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

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19

20

21

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25

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27

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29

30

40

60

90

120

00

..

0.10

0.20

3.078

1.886

1.638

1.533

1.476

1.440

1.415

1.397

1.383

1.372

1.363

1.356

1.350

1.345

1.341

1.337

1.333

1.330

1.328

1.325

1.323

1.321

1.319

1.318

1.316

1.315

1.314

1.313

1.311

1.310

1.303

1.296

1.291

1.289

1.282

0.05

0.10

6.314

2.920

2.353

2.132

2.015

1.943

1.895

1.860

1.833

1.812

1.796

1.782

1.771

1.761

1.753

1.746

1.740

1.734

1.729

1.725

1.721

1.717

1.714

1.711

1.708

1.706

1.703

1.701

1.699

1.697

1.684

1.671

1.662

1.658

1.645

Significance Level

0.025

0.05

12.706

4.303

3.182

2.776

2.571

2.447

2.365

2.306

2.262

2.228

2.201

2.179

2.160

2.145

2.131

2.120

2.110

2.101

2.093

2.086

2.080

2.074

2.069

2.064

2.060

2.056

2.052

2.048

2.045

2.042

2.021

2.000

1.987

1.980

1.960

..

IS

0.01

0.02

31.821

6.965

4.541

3.747

3.365

3.143

2.998

2.896

2.821

2.764

2.718

2.681

2.650

2.624

2.602

2.583

2.567

2.552

2.539

2.528

2.518

2.508

2.500

2.492

2.485

2.479

2.473

2.467

2.462

2.457

2.423

2.390

2.368

2.358

2.326

0.005

0.01

63.656

9.925

5.841

4.604

4.032

3.707

3.499

3.355

3.250

3.169

3.106

3.055

3.012

2.977

2.947

2.921

2.898

2.878

2.861

2.845

2.831

2.819

2.807

2.797

2.787

2.779

2.771

2.763

2.756

2.750

2.704

2.660

2.632

2.617

2.576

10

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e

n

0

m

i

r

D

e

9

r

e

e

s

0

f

F

r

e

e

d

0

00

1

10.04

9.65

9.33

9.07

8.86

8.68

8.53

8.40

8.29

8.18

8.10

8.02

7.95

7.88

7.82

7.77

7.72

7.68

7.64

7.60

7.56

7.31

7.08

6.93

6.85

6.63

7.56

7.21

6.93

6.70

6.51

6.36

6.23

6.11

6.01

5.93

5.85

5.78

5.72

5.66

5.61

5.57

5.53

5.49

5.45

5.42

5.39

5.18

4.98

4.85

4.79

4.61

6.55

6.22

5.95

5.74

5.56

5.42

5.29

5.19

5.09

5.01

4.94

4.87

4.82

4.76

4.72

4.68

4.64

4.60

4.57

4.54

4.51

4.31

4.13

4.01

3.95

3.78

4

6

7

5

5.99

5.64

5.39

5.20

5.67

5.32

5.07

4.89

5.41

5.06

4.82

4.64

5.21

4.86

4.62

4.44

5.04

4.69

4.46

4.28

4.89

4.56

4.32

4.14

4.44

4.77

4.20

4.03

4.67

4.34

4.10

3.93

4.25

4.01

3.84

4.58

4.50

4.17

3.94

3.77

3.87

3.70

4.43

4.10

4.37

4.04

3.81

3.64

4.31

3.76

3.59

3.99

3.94

3.71

3.54

4.26

3.67

3.50

4.22

3.90

3.63

4.18

3.85

3.46

4.14

3.82

3.59

3.42

4.11

3.78

3.56

3.39

3.53

4.07

3.75

3.36

3.33

4.04

3.73

3.50

4.02

3.70

3.47

3.30

3.51

3.29

3.12

3.83

3.34

3.12

2.95

3.65

3.01

2.84

3.53

3.23

3.17

2.96

2.79

3.48

3.32

3.02

2.80

2.64

Example: The 1% critical value for numerator df=3 and denominator df=60 is 4.13.

8

5.06

4.74

4.50

4.30

4.14

4.00

3.89

3.79

3.71

3.63

3.56

3.51

3.45

3.41

3.36

3.32

3.29

3.26

3.23

3.20

3.17

2.99

2.82

2.72

2.66

2.51

9

4.94

4.63

4.39

4.19

4.03

3.89

3.78

3.68

3.60

3.52

3.46

3.40

3.35

3.30

3.26

3.22

3.18

3.15

3.12

3.09

3.07

2.89

2.72

2.61

2.56

2.41

10

4.85

4.54

4.30

4.10

3.94

3.80

3.69

3.59

3.51

3.43

3.37

3.31

3.26

3.21

3.17

3.13

3.09

3.06

3.03

3.00

2.98

2.80

2.63

2.52

2.47

2.32

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