c


Speaker: Antonucci

Ã craq
a ot a nation / country ± a colonial territory (under Britain)
a ×airly uneasy alliance
Ã ivision of Sunnis and Shiites
a Shiite Majority in craq but minority in Muslim world
a isagree over apocalyptic theology and processor of prophet Mohammed
a Sunnis minority in craq but majority in Muslim world
a ëoalition and invasion represented liberation of the Shiites
a urdistan ± small religious faction (urdish autonomous nation)
0 urds ± not really in conflict with
Ã Gne of few nationalities without distinct state
a ot many invested in the success of single craq gov
a ^ish to see urdistan become its own nation
Ã America hearts the independent urdish nation
a irect US withdrawal = urdish abandonment
0 cnternal triumph of secessionists
Ã ‘egion better developed because of lack of oil there
a £conomic prosperity of craq involves urdish integration
a ëurrently have small state in craq gov.
0 Ñalal Talabani ± craq president (urd)
a arput = majority urd
a Most dangerous flashpoint
0 ebate tactics:
Ã Breakaway secession of urds impact
a Turkey very concerned
a ebate tactics:
0 £mpirical sectarian division
0 craq houses both groups ± becomes a flashpoint for external divisions in Muslim world as a whole
0 Maudi army ± dormant army ± reference to Sunni
Ã Spearheaded on confrontation with US in 04
0 cran = majority Shiite, spillover argument
Ã ^ill cran take over craq
Ã ×ear that c ran will take over
0 ‘eligious credibility
Ã cnevitable economic ties over oil
a Stabilized economy ± improving post-sectarian violence
a ^ealthy from oil
a ‰argest untapped crude oil reserves
a ëontinued craq stabilization likely to hasten craq oil endeavors ± expedite the oil process, make $$
a ·ipeline politics
0 ·ump arkuk oil from inner craq to border for
0 cf gas starts pumping, it may diminish the importance of another dominant pipeline
0 craqi stability bad ± competes with other pipelines
0 atural gas pipelines in £urope would compete
0 rops global price of oil ± may make renewable energy more palatable
0
a Spillover scenarios
0 eg story
Ã Unsuccessful withdrawal shatters American image = we look like failures
Ã
0
 a
Ã craqi ·olitics
a irect influence of o which ran craq
a Baath party ± similar to azi party
a ·urge anyone like sadam ussein from the gov.
a £lections often turn out unfair
0 More power invested in the legislature ± prime minister
0 Because of march elections, gov is in limbo
0 ot determined who the next leader of craq will be
0 ational coalition has more ties that Shiite national influence
0 craquia
Ã irect translations form Arabic
Ã cra Ulawi
Ã State of law coalition
a Sunnis not that attached to religion
a characterized by secularism, apathy to gov.
0 stronger support for state of law
a £thnic secularism
Ã cf iraquia achieves presence in gov, shia more likely to leave
Ã ominate shia coalition will have nationalism improved, the somerists
Ã Set up as force outside the state
Ã urds hold additional 40 seats in gov
a ‘eason urds continue to be integrated
a
Ã ^ithdrawal strengthens one faction over another
a Sectarian anger, violence
a
Ã ^ay shia politics play out on the stage
Ã ·redictably divisive results, good links
Ã ^hich group benefits most from withdrawal
a cndecisive ± link debate supports both views
Ã cnitial handle on craqi internal politics
a ebaathification
0 ëouncil of representatives
0 Meets in Baghdad
Ã ‘elationship between craq and Al Qaeda
a £xtend of al Qaeda greatly exaggerated
0 Al Qaeda in craq = massive fail
0 Violently attacked civilians, led to rallying of factions against al Qaeda
0 Started working with two US forces
0 Military surge very effective
Ã cf military pulls out, resurgence of al Qaeda
Ã othing to lose
0 Gperational and logistical information
0 Stability impacts
0 Al Qaeda emboldenment, Terrorism impacts
0 Better launching points, etc.
0 ëontroversial during sectarian violence
0 ecline and failure trends here
0 Targets of indiscriminate violence
Ã Alienated natural allies
Ã Tactical alliances
0 Appears that process of imperialisation is improving
0 craq army not built for a coup
0 Vagueness arguments ± case turns
 Ã Vague withdrawal will make the craqis think we¶re messing with them
Ã Spur outrage, frustration
Ã cmplicate the perception of our hard power
0 ëlarity bad
Ã ëompetitive ambiguity
Ã More influence to pro-· args
0 More likely to go into cran if we stay in craq ± use craq as building ground
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