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2 New Dynamics in GCC-UK Relations and the Prospects and Challenges for the GCC Union
Introduction
This paper is a summary of proceedings at a closed-door workshop hosted by Chatham House in
partnership with the Gulf Research Center that took place on 1213 June 2014. The workshop brought
together a number of analysts, government representatives, academics and journalists to discuss the
relationship between Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states and the United Kingdom, its future
development amid changing regional dynamics and the prospects for a Gulf union.
Some of the main findings include the following:
In an era characterized by ever-changing regional dynamics, shifting alliances and great instability in
the Middle East, a concerted effort is needed to maintain and fortify long-standing UK-GCC ties.
The United Kingdom and the Gulf states share a range of primary interests and concerns, for instance
regional security and international terrorism; recognising shared goals and areas of mutual concern is
essential in order to jointly address key issues.
While they share similar perspectives on various matters, both the United Kingdom and the Gulf
countries are undergoing a period of change concerning their respective international roles, domestic
and foreign policies; these changes, which are subject to policy divergences between the United
Kingdom and GCC states, must be navigated carefully through increased dialogue between the two
partners.
Both as individual countries and as a regional bloc, there are profound developments taking place
within the GCC in terms of internal structure and governance culture. This presents multiple
opportunities for increased engagement with the United Kingdom, which can offer experience and
expertise in a number of relevant areas.
Rather than being viewed as a threat, the media can be utilised as a tool to enhance constructive
dialogue and UK-GCC engagement, as well as to enrich understanding between the respective
populations. For this to be borne out, however, greater media access to the Gulf is vital.
On the topic of Gulf union, there are considerable obstacles as well as prospective benefits with
regards to deeper coordination and integration at a time of regional flux; accordingly, any future
policies must be carefully considered and vigorously debated.
Numerous lessons can be drawn from Europes experience with union as a template for the GCC, albeit
with major differences in structure, size and scope. Regardless of these differences, some of the values
enshrined in the EU model including accountability, transparency and public participation would
undoubtedly reinforce GCC governance and decision-making processes.
The meeting was held under the Chatham House Rule and the views expressed are those of the
participants. This summary is intended to serve as an aide-mmoire to those who took part and to provide
a general summary of discussions for those who did not.
3 New Dynamics in GCC-UK Relations and the Prospects and Challenges for the GCC Union
4 New Dynamics in GCC-UK Relations and the Prospects and Challenges for the GCC Union
With regards to the regional environment, one participant asserted that the two main issues of concern
for the GCC are the Arab Spring and the Iranian nuclear programme, as well as Irans foreign policy. The
former has caused fissures within the GCC, leading to instability in a region with a historical structure
that supports values of political conservatism and favours gradual rather than rapid change. It has also
served to generate a security risk, allowing for external actors to manipulate conditions for their own
interests, while creating space for the recruitment, financing and arming of terrorist organizations.
Various participants affirmed that the Gulf countries have nevertheless shown great adaptability to the
situation, for example providing crucial assistance to the transition process in countries such as Yemen.
There was much debate among participants surrounding the issue of Iran. Several expressed concern
regarding the countrys perceived agenda for hegemony in the region, particularly against the backdrop of
an extant security vacuum. It was suggested that international powers are concerned mainly with the
Iranian nuclear programme at the expense of the balance of power in the region, an issue of vital
importance for GCC states. Others agreed that there is a widespread disconnect in perception between the
Iranian nuclear issue and the question of Irans contribution to Gulf security. Navigating differing
priorities, therefore, was cited as an important issue to address within the framework of UK-GCC
relations. One participant stressed the primacy of regional acceptance of Irans reintegration into the
international system, with any resolution between Iran and the P5+1 powers needing to take into account
GCC concerns if it is to create a sustainable order. Participants disagreed on whether the international
community should strive for greater GCC involvement in negotiations with Iran, or conversely whether
the regional bloc should itself create unified initiatives to foster its role in the process. One participant
highlighted the varying degrees and nature of individual Gulf states engagement with Iran and the
limitations this places on a potential GCC role. All were of the view, however, that the GCC is a chief
player in the quest for regional stability.
5 New Dynamics in GCC-UK Relations and the Prospects and Challenges for the GCC Union
Various participants stressed specific issues within the GCC that must be addressed internally, and the
protection of human rights ranked high among these. Maintaining long-term political stability was also
highlighted, which entails ministerial transparency, fighting corruption and unemployment, and the
redistribution of wealth. Instituting independent structures of government, with different branches
addressing the abovementioned issues, will undoubtedly reinforce GCC countries long-term
sustainability. There was consensus among participants that the United Kingdom could play a
constructive role in helping to secure these goals and in turn maintain regional stability. The country has
a 715-year long experience with democratization and has undergone its own trials with it along the way; a
key and indispensible component of foreign policy would be UK assistance in developing institutions
within GCC states to ensure their respective sustainability and adaptability to local needs and aspirations.
External alliances amid regional changes
Participants considered the effects of recent developments in the Middle East on UK-GCC relations,
questioning how the United Kingdom defines its alliances with the Gulf countries. One participant
suggested that the relationship between the two parties is under strain. That being said, it was noted that
all alliances experience ebb and flow as a result of global and regional developments. Particularly in the
Middle East, many strong relationships experience periods of tension and varying priorities, and GCC-UK
relations must be seen in light of this. Another participant cited the phenomenon of GCC countries tilting
East in the context of their strategic relations, as there is less interference from Eastern countries in GCC
states internal affairs. While this was noted as a potential threat to a strong and comprehensive UK-GCC
partnership, it was generally agreed that the long-standing ties between the two parties are a solid source
of support. While the United Kingdom may not be able to compromise on the importance of good
governance as a core value, there is ample room for both the GCC and the United Kingdom to work
together to find common ground while recognising each others strategic interests.
There was repeated emphasis during discussions on the need for GCC-UK relations to be reciprocal in
nature, on the basis of national interest. Some participants expressed discontent with the United
Kingdoms hosting of extremist elements that are trying to create instability and spur tensions in the
Middle East. The United Kingdom is perceived to be allowing such elements to operate on its grounds
while granting them political asylum. Some viewed this as an impediment to otherwise strong UK-Gulf
bilateral ties based on trust and deep historical ties. Others disagreed with the premise that the United
Kingdom has been overly embracing political Islam; the country is itself at times taken aback by events
unfolding in the Middle East and how they relate to the United Kingdom. One participant asserted that
not all Islamist movements can be painted with one brush; there are important dynamics to be taken into
account. This is especially true when considering the values and principles that guide the actions of the
United Kingdom, and the West in general, when it comes to asylum-seeking and other issues of human
rights. Overlooking its commitments to such values would essentially result in a loss of credibility for the
United Kingdom within its own population.
6 New Dynamics in GCC-UK Relations and the Prospects and Challenges for the GCC Union
7 New Dynamics in GCC-UK Relations and the Prospects and Challenges for the GCC Union
human rights issues within GCC circles, with some under the impression that the former uses arguments
of protecting human rights in the Gulf for political reasons only.
Another point of discussion was the issue of political will in the United Kingdom. While there is no doubt
about the countrys military capacity or the quality of its armed forces, some participants questioned its
willingness to commit to global and regional security concerns. The governments reluctance to intervene
in the conflict in Syria was said to illustrate such views. Some clarified this occurrence by explaining that
while the UK governments policy was indeed to intervene in the country, this intention faltered in the
face of parliamentary opposition. Policy decisions towards Iraq and Syria have undeniably left a lack of
faith in the strategic thinking of the United Kingdom. Participants agreed nonetheless that more
comprehensive dialogue is central to buttressing cooperation between the United Kingdom and GCC, as
the ambiguity surrounding capacity and will has resulted in significant misunderstandings regarding
defence, security and political dynamics. Strategic discussion can only serve to enhance the relationship
and rebuild trust between the two parties.
8 New Dynamics in GCC-UK Relations and the Prospects and Challenges for the GCC Union
public propaganda campaigns such as that surrounding the Iraq war; since then, however, there has on
the whole been greater cynicism and scepticism in the media towards government sources.
Creating a more balanced view
Gulf citizens have mixed views about Western coverage of their countries. It is problematic for young
Saudis, for example, to read unremittingly negative and stereotypical pieces about their country, and
ordinary people in the GCC inevitably feel singled out. On the other hand, as mentioned above, the press
has a considerable effect on forming Western public opinion concerning the GCC, with misperceptions at
times prevailing. Participants explored the various options available to address this situation. There was
emphasis on the consequences of Gulf governments and ministries attitude towards critical media
stories: when the UK parliament conducted an inquiry into UK relations with Saudi Arabia and Bahrain,
for instance, it was the negative and defensive response from those countries which ultimately caused
more damage and generated more attention than the initial story.
One participant raised the vital issue of access: the timing of responses from Gulf governments following
major stories is crucial. It can prove difficult to receive a definitive response, and journalists are forced to
rely heavily on Western think-tanks based in the Gulf to obtain relevant information about an issue rather
than from government officials and politicians as a direct source. The matter of inside access is a
somewhat problematic one in other senses, with visas for journalists in some Gulf countries being
extremely challenging to acquire. Furthermore, surveillance of journalists while in-country similarly
hinders their ability to cover stories adequately and impartially. Transparency is key, and participants
agreed that GCC states must give greater access if their global image is to improve; journalists can be
viewed as potential allies rather than threats. States such as Saudi Arabia remain a mystery to the general
public in the United Kingdom, which harbours misgivings about the country as a result. Changing
stereotypes is no simple task, but providing access to the country would be the first step towards this goal
by offering a nuanced view from the inside. To be sure, this does not come without a risk; however it
would certainly make for stronger and more open relationships between the United Kingdom and GCC as
well as more informed publics.
Another suggestion for improving UK-GCC relations as well as public misperceptions about the Gulf
involved better communication between the UK and Gulf media. It was mentioned that there has been
significant progress in local Gulf media coverage, with issues such as corruption and mismanagement
within GCC countries regularly being tackled. The degree of transparency has been raised, representing
subtle and rational development. Social media in the Gulf is accelerating this important trend, with
outlets such as Facebook, Youtube and Twitter providing citizens with a wider reach than that of
traditional media; it is difficult to overstate the impact of this phenomenon. More comprehensive
communication with counterparts in the United Kingdom could serve to further enhance this trend within
GCC media houses through strategic exchange and capacity-building. One participant referred to the
potential benefits of other forms of exchange, for instance seminars and workshops promoting intercultural knowledge between the Gulf and the United Kingdom. Cultural exchange can lead to a more
comprehensive understanding of respective cultures; the Saudi-produced film Wajda, for example, gave
many in the United Kingdom a novel insight into life in Saudi Arabia. Nonetheless, participants noted the
limitations of cultural exchange in tackling deep misperceptions. Active steps must be taken by the United
Kingdom and GCC countries in redressing the current climate through strategic exchange and enhanced
institutional collaboration.
9 New Dynamics in GCC-UK Relations and the Prospects and Challenges for the GCC Union
The fifth session of the workshop centred on the idea of and prospects for a Gulf union. Participants
considered the purpose and role of the GCC as it exists today, as well as the organizations shortcomings
and the direction in which it should progress. The GCC has come a long way since its inception over 30
years ago; but in order to remain effective it must develop and react to current circumstances.
Foundations and future role
The GCC was founded in 1981 on the basis of security and common interests. Regional events were
developing in such a way that called for a body for coordination and deliberation between Gulf states. In
the context of contemporary events, the GCC has proved itself as a fundamental body within the region. It
acted as a credible deterrence and defence mechanism during the liberation of Kuwait in the Gulf crisis,
and more recently the council requested intervention in Libya during that countrys turmoil, providing
vital support in the international arena and contributing militarily. As discussion turned to the prospect of
deeper coordination, integration and interdependence between the GCC states, participants considered
what the body has achieved and whether it is meeting the aspirations and needs of the Gulf populations.
One participant affirmed that there is a clear gap between what is required and the ability of the existing
bureaucracy to meet the demands of current times. With an unwieldy executive structure and committees
meeting just once or twice a year, there is a substantial need for a multilateral and vigorous decisionmaking process. Moreover, an independent judiciary to mediate disputes between member states is
fundamental, as can be demonstrated by recent discord between Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab
Emirates and Qatar, which resulted in the former three states withdrawing ambassadorial representation
from the latter. Participants agreed that as a council, the body has reached a certain limit. Gulf states
share certain economic, security and governance priorities; hence, further coordination between them can
contribute to their overall performance within these realms.
The idea of not just enhanced unity but a Gulf union, however, produces its own complications. There are
clear fault lines within the GCC which will prove challenging to overcome through greater union. Varying
priorities and interests between Gulf states, and indeed between communities within them, represent
undeniable obstacles. The issue of national representation presents another impediment, as it is unclear
who might lead such a union. The GCC states, comprising Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman
and the United Arab Emirates are all at various degrees of agreement with regards to a Gulf union. As one
participant asserted, the implications of a merger are manifold, potentially entailing a customs union,
unified foreign and defence policies, and enhanced coordination on domestic issues. Great compromises
would be required from each country at a time of relative regional incoherence. In terms of defence
coordination, it was noted that even within some Gulf states, for instance Saudi Arabia, internal
coordination among defence branches is problematic. This raises important questions, therefore, on the
feasibility of coordinating national defence the sovereign GCC states. Furthermore, participants agreed
that there exist significant differences of opinion on key regional issues, for instance engagement with
Iran, with issues such as Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood representing crucial points of contention.
Contextualizing a prospective union
In weighing the potential benefits and shortcomings of greater union, participants considered further
implications, including what it would mean for citizens of Gulf countries. The European Union (EU) was
highlighted as an example: countries in the EU must concede to significant compromises on political and
economic sovereignty. Numerous benefits at present accrue under current arrangements within the GCC
framework increased trade and investment between member states, for instance. In terms of
advantages for indigenous populations, there is increased mobility within the GCC, with citizens able to
10 New Dynamics in GCC-UK Relations and the Prospects and Challenges for the GCC Union
travel between the various states using a national identification card. The common GCC power grid, in
addition to the planned Gulf Railway set to connect all six GCC countries by rail by 2017, are further
positive aspects.
That being said, some participants shared the view that the unanswered questions regarding greater Gulf
union overpower its potential benefits. For example, there is uncertainty surrounding the issue of GCC
labour markets and how the various states might coordinate their policies, particularly in relation to
migrant labour, to arrive at an appropriate regional arrangement. Current domestic issues within GCC
countries, moreover, are in need of attention and are in danger of being exacerbated by the merging of
national policies. Some of these include education, healthcare, employment and the general imperative of
social responsibility, as well as the vital issue of migrant labour rights. Some of the major concerns facing
the GCC entail sustainability issues: resource limitations and climate change are key areas of concern
which cannot be overstated.
Some participants referred to increased attention within the GCC states towards environmental and
sustainability matters as well as disaster planning, stating that increased cooperation between Gulf
countries might in fact lead to a robust framework to tackle these issues. It was argued however that there
remains a disconnect between the vision of GCC leaders and the needs of society. The announcement of a
potential GCC union took most of the Gulf population by surprise; increased input from Gulf citizens, and
a concerted public relations campaign to clarify the conditions and implications of Gulf union, is of
utmost importance. Communicating the potential benefits to respective populations, clarifying how they
might be affected by such developments, would make for a smoother and more harmonious transition
process should GCC union plans proceed.
11 New Dynamics in GCC-UK Relations and the Prospects and Challenges for the GCC Union
unclear on the terms of their authority and autonomy. A myriad of ever-expanding treaties has served to
further complicate the situation.
One participant highlighted enlargement as a successful EU policy: including more nation-states in the
union has shaped the underlying aim and mechanism by which conflict resolution and prevention has
been achieved, effectively abolishing conflict between EU member states. Further successes include
secure food supplies within the EU, as well as a common defence policy, exemplified by strategic EU
cooperation with NATO. A mass of new member states has necessitated the promulgation of more laws;
and the mechanism by which peace is kept is further integration. At the heart of the union is the desire to
have no dictators within it, and therefore power must necessarily be widely distributed.
Prospects for the future
The EU enjoys significant successes to its credit. On the other hand, it suffers from important structural
weaknesses, which have been exacerbated over time. Being a multi-layered structure with various
decision-making bodies, the EU can be an unwieldy platform, and more often than not member-states are
left dissatisfied by developments within it.
There was overall agreement that should the GCC consider moving towards a more integrated
cooperation community, serious and strategic thinking must go into what exactly is desired from a closer
union, as well as what it would mean for existing national structures. For instance, what would
centralizing authority mean for the numerous majlises, consultative councils and other executive bodies
within the GCC? From the EU perspective, the development of a common foreign policy has been
unsuccessful; different nation-states have their own individual angles and priorities. The GCC may
experience similar difficulties: joint foreign policy formation at the top rarely works in reality, and is more
likely to experience success if it is developed from the inside.
Participants also discussed the need to build popular participation within the GCC, especially if its
member states wish to pursue deeper integration. Drawing on popular legitimacy is key to building a
sustainable and resilient alliance. Moreover, as mentioned above, communicating the terms as well as the
goals of enhanced cooperation to GCC citizens is paramount, and would lead to a more coherent and
structured relationship between member states and their respective populations. Democracy was a
fundamental element of the founding of the EU. Participants agreed that while this factor may not have
the same meaning for the GCC countries which have reasonably fostered their own respective systems
of government based on indigenous cultures greater accountability, transparency and public
participation are essential pillars for any meaningful GCC union.