EXEE3111 : MACRECONOMICS IIID

GOLD PRICE EFFECT TO WORLD ECONOMY

GROUP MEMBERS
MELVIN PANG

EEE130056

NG JING KIAT
NURUL HAZIQAH BINTI KAMIDON
WOO SHU FEN
SYAFIKAH BINTI KUNHAMOO

EEE130065
EEE120094
EEE130109
EEE130087

LECTURERS NAME
DR. SANTHA A/P CHENAYAH @ RAMU

ABSTRACT
This study examines what is the impact on world economy when price of gold change
and the factor affect the change in gold price. This study aims to investigate is there any
correlation between gold price and other influences. Despite the general assumption that the gold
price can affect the world economy, we studied that there are few others factors that leads to the
changes in gold prices in the economy. Among the factors identified are crude oil, inflation rate,
US dollar and silver price. While it is recognized to be an alternative type of investment, it is
actually give an impact to the world economy indirectly when the price of gold is changing. The

data and figures have been retrieved from the stock market websites and journal. Most of the
studies have shown that gold price is actually has a positive corelation with few variables. The
importance of this issue is to bring up the current trend, gold as a type of investment and to see
how far is this type of investment has giving an impact to the world economy.

INTRODUCTION
Gold founded by human in 40,000 B.C. For the earliest time, it used by Paleolithic Man
in Spanish cave that discovered by expert of fossil study. When years comes, gold have being
used as a reserve to print currency in 19th century. Gold is recognised by all nation in the world
and it keep that gold have its value until today. Gold is the most expensive metal in the world
right now. This happened due to the demand from the human is keep increasing when population
is growing fast now.
Human beings in the world thinks that gold should become an investment portfolio,
reason is the demand of gold is keep increasing when population is increases too. Human thinks
that gold are more durable than currency. This makes that gold have a corelated relationship with
the world economy.
This paper will study on the relationship of gold price to the world economy. This paper
will compare gold price with stock market as a references of represent economy of the world
which is New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) for United States, Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange
(KLSE) for Malaysia, Hang Seng Index (HSI) for Hong Kong, Straits Times Index (STI) for
Singapore, Nikkei Index for Japan. It also included crude oil price to show all relationship with
gold price.
After the studies, it will shows the relationship between the data that from the gold
price,stock market, and crude oil price. From here it can use this data to predict future world
economy by taking gold price as a variable to forecast economy is soing well or bad in future.

LITERATURE REVIEW
In looking for the real impact of gold prices to the world economy and the factor of
determinants of gold prices are, there were many research papers that have been done by the
world researchers. The first one by Shafiee, S., & Topal, E. (2010), they found a correlation
between the price of gold with other influences such as oil prices and inflation over the past 40
years. In the second part of this paper, it describes the method to estimate commodity prices of
raw resources.

Kaspar. A (2008), analyzed supply and demand on the gold market and the causes and
direction, which cause fluctuations in supply and demand of gold. He has affirmed the positive
relationship between oil and gold prices and USD. Not just that, its said that the geopolitical
factors actually influenced the gold price. T Chang, Y. H. and Le, T.H. (2011), in their article, has
found the relationship between the prices gold and oil. They also found the relationship prices
gold and oil and how they interact with the US dollar indicator. The results shows that there is a
long-run relationship between the prices of oil and gold. Not only that, they also found that the
oil price can be used to forsee the gold price. While in 2015, the relationship between US stocks,
gold, and oil with the US dollar foreign exchange rate also has been found by Samih Antoine
Azar (2015).
Futhermore, Levin, E.J. and Montagnoli, A. and Wright, R.E. (2006), has found that there
is long-term one-for-one relationship between the price of gold and the general price level in the
USA. Based on Haroon (2015), the price of gold and oil make an brunt in the economy
especially in the developing and developed countries like Pakistan. Besides that, he also find that
it is very difficult to separate the separated impact of change in gold prices due to global boost of
gold cost and other aspects. Sindhu (2013), the inverse relationship between the US$ and gold
prices were, the crude oil prices have positive correlation with gold prices. Gold prices and repo
rates are interconnected and lastly the relation between gold prices and inflation rates are
dependent and positively correlated.
Bimal, Shiva (2015), found that gold always acts as an substitute in investment when
investors face uncertainties. Besides that, Aclan (2012), found the link between gold prices and
financial index in Turkey.While in US, Hyong (2011), showed the causes that resolve gold price.
Through the previous studies, he found that the gold price and inflation has positive correlation.
But on the other hand, inflation block do not prove the general belief. Even in US hedging, there
were no correlation between gold price and the inflation. Prerana, Ruturaj, George (2013), found
that the causes that leads to the surge in gold price in India are global business environment,
political situation, market setting, consumers behaviour, and inflation which have affect gold
price. In 2015, Hanif, Nabilah. Salwani, Wan, show that the rates of inflation, exchange and
interest were associate with gold prices in Malaysia. Wai, P. S., Ismail, M. T., & Kun, S. S.
(2014) have shown that gold price has a positive relationship with Malaysia, Thailand and
Indonesia stock market.
Ping, P. Y., & Ahmad, M. H. (2014), showed that there is a co-movement between gold
price and USD foreign exchange rate. Toramana, C., Baarrb, , & Bayramoluc, M. F. (2001)
were looking for the factors affecting the gold prices. The world oil prices, as well as other
indicators of US such as inflation, exchange rate, and interest rate are included in the research.
The outcome is, highest correlation is found between gold prices and USA exchange rate
negatively. Escribano, A., & Granger, C. W. (1998). This paper analyses the long run relationship
between gold and silver prices.
3

Baig, M., Shahbaz, M., Imran, M., Jabbar, M., & Ul Ain, Q. (2013) in they studies found
that, Gold prices growth, Oil prices growth and KSE100 return have no significant relationship
in the long run. Bashiri, N. (2010) in his studies provided evidence on the relationship between
the prices of gold and stock price indices for Armenia. Jin, J., Jie, C., & Zhang, Q. (2014) in this
paper has analysed the relationship between the price change of the international gold futures and
the price fluctuation of gold stocks in Chinese Shanghai and Shenzhen comprehensively.
Ibrahim, S. N., Kamaruddin, N. I., & Hasan, R. (2014) tried to figure out what actually affects
the gold prices in Malaysia. The researchers found out that gold prices are negatively correlated
to Malaysias inflation rate and interest rate; whereas the relationship of gold price and crude oil
price is found to be positively correlated.

PROBLEM STATEMENT
Gold is considered the most feasible element of investment. In the times of crisis also, it
has proved to be most accessible and investors of all ages have taken it as the safest one to cope
with crisis. In commodity market, gold has its unique relevance. But fluctuations in its prices will
definitely affect the world economy. What are the factors that affect the gold prices? Besides that,
do gold prices influence the world economy?

RESEARCH QUESTIONS
1. What is the impact on world economy when price of gold change?
2. What are the factor affect the change in gold price?
3. Is there any correlation between gold price and other influences?

RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
1. To investigate how the changes in gold price affect the world economy.
2. To study the factors that effects the changes in gold price.
3. To find out the influences that correlate with gold price.

METHODOLOGY

For the objectives of this study, we use secondary data either quantitative or qualitative
data to analyse it. Qualitative data refers to worded sources data like article, journal and books. It
used to analyse the factors that affect the gold price from different articles. While quantitative
data is those statistical data used to know the correlation of world economy and gold price.
Besides, regression model is run using excel to test for correlation between gold price and other
influences. The data are collected from yahoo finance and Quandl, a website that get data from
hundreds of database like The World Bank, NASDAQ, ZACKS and so on which delivering high
quality financial and economic data. The period of the data selected is monthly data from year
2003 to year 2014. The time series data are considered enough with total of 144 data to run the
regression. The dependent variable is gold price in USD while the independent variables include
oil price, international reserve US (billion), and US$ index. For the oil price it is price from
OPEC crude oil basket measure in USD, US international reserve measure in billion USD and
trade weighted USD index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar
against a subset of the broad index currencies that circulate widely outside the country of issue.
Major currencies index includes Euro Area. The data is to test the significant relation between
gold price and those variables. The model equation as below:
Y=

0 +

1 X 1 +

2 X 2 +

3 X 3 +

Where,
Y, gold price (USD)
X1, oil price (USD)
X2, US international reserve (billion USD)
X3, trade weighted USD index
, error term

The summary output of the regression

Regression Statistics
0.95277992
Multiple R
6
0.90778958
R Square
7
Adjusted R
0.90581364
Square
9
5

Standard Error
Observations

138.488761
7
144

ANOVA
df
Regression

Residual
Total

140
143

Interce
pt
Oil
Price
IR
(billion
)
US$
Index

Coeffici
ents
977.366
798
4.30398
6

Standar
d Error
330.707
383
0.87499
7

7.47382
8
14.4675
64

0.46454
8
3.51795
4

SS
MS
26433966.0 8811322.02
6
1
2685079.19 19179.1371
5
1
29119045.26

t Stat
2.9553
82
4.9188
57
16.088
39
4.1124
94

F
459.422234
3

Significanc
eF
3.09899E72

Pvalue
0.0036
65
0.0000
02

Lower
95%
323.540
536
2.57407
0

Upper
95%
1631.19
30
6.03390
3

Lower
95.0%
323.540
53
2.57407
0

Upper
95.0%
1631.19
30
6.03390
3

0.0000
00

6.55539
2
21.4227
48

8.39226
4
7.51238
0

6.55539
2
21.4227
48

8.39226
4
7.51238
0

0.0000
66

R square= 0.907789587, shows that 90.78% of the variation in gold price can be explained by
variation in explanatory variables. Adjusted R square = 0.905813649, means that 90.58% of the
variations in gold price can be explained by the variations in the independent variables adjusted
to the number of independent variables and 9.42% of the variations remain unexplained.

Coefficient
0 =
977.366798
1 = 4.303986

Explanation
Holding other independent variables constant, the price of gold is
977.3668 USD regardless any factors
Holding other independent variables constant, an increase in 1 USD
crude oil price per basket, the gold price is estimated to increase by
6

4.304USD
2 = 7.473828

3 =
-14.467564

Test
H0
1
H1
1
H0
2
H1
2
H0
3
H1
3

:
=0
:
0
:
=0
:
0
:
=0
:
0

Holding other independent variables constant, an increase in US

international reserve by 1 billion USD, the gold price is estimated
increased by 7.474USD
Holding other independent variables constant, an increased in 1 unit of
USD index, the gold price is estimated to decreased by 14.468 USD

p-value
0.000002

Decision
Since the p value < 0.05, crude oil price has significant relation
with gold price at 5% of significant level

0.000000

Since the p value < 0.05, US international reserve has

significant relation with gold price at 5% of significant level

0.000066

Since the p value < 0.05, trade weighted USD index has
significant relation with gold price at 5% of significant level

To conclude, crude oil price, US international reserve and trade weighted USD index has
significant relation with gold price at 5% significant level.

FINDING AND DISCUSSION

Factors that Affect the Gold Price:
Gold Price and Crude Oil Price:
Findings recommend that gold price and crude oil price are decidedly correlated. As
indicated by Shafiee and Topal (2010), when the two oil shocks happened in the middle of year
1979 to 1980 and another in center of year 2007, the gold prices fluctuate in respond to the oil
shocks.
Nonetheless, gold price returns did not altogether brought about the volatility of crude oil
price change. Based on Liao and Chen (2008), the gold return was not able to clarify the oil price
7

return. The one-sided relationship between gold price and oil price could be clarified by their
volatility.
Crude oil is an input to the production of gold, so its price eventually determines the price
of gold. When the price of crude oil rises, the production cost for gold is higher, which makes the
suppliers reduce the output of gold. The decline in the supply of gold will cause the price of gold
to be higher than its initial level. The opposite is true when the price of gold is decreased by the
decline in the price of crude oil.
Gold Price and Inflation:
In light of the past researchers discoveries, the relationship between gold price and
inflation are observed to be mixed. A few scientists had bolstered their looks into discoveries as
gold was served as the inflation hedge. According to Narayan et al. (2010), gold price and
inflation are decidedly related. Since gold served as the inflation hedge, consequently greater
inflation would increase gold demand in the world market. Yet, Sjaastad and Scacciavillani
(1996) have reported that gold could serve as the store of value against inflation. At the point
when there was expanded in world inflation rate, the real gold price would likewise increase, in
this way bringing about gold demand to fall.
The outcome demonstrates the verifiable information of both inflation and gold price
were strongly correlated between each other. However, the relationship are still unclear as some
researchers believe that the relationship between the two variables are found to be negative.
Investors tend to hold gold in their portfolios as an insurance against inflation. When inflation is
high, the value of paper currency falls in terms of the goods and services it can buy. In other
words, gold acts as an inflation hedge for the investors when they anticipate that the future
market does not perform well. Lets take US as the host country, and gold is dollar-denominated.
If US inflation rate increases, the price of gold in terms of dollars will be more expensive
because it is dollar-denominated. Foreign investors will sell their golds to earn more profit
because it is now higher value than before. The demand for gold will decline, which leads to the
decrease in gold price. Therefore, inflation rate and gold prices are negatively correlated and
move in different ways.
There are different kind of explanations given towards the relationship between gold
price and inflation. Which statement is true? There is no appropriate answer for the question.
Gold Price and Silver Price:
Based on Tully and Lucey (2006), gold and silver were valuable metals that could be
utilized as money, along these lines both gold and silver go about as close substitutes for each
another. The study recommended gold and silver were better drawn nearer as substitute goods
8

when there was economic uncertainties, financial vulnerabilities and weak dollar condition.
Along these lines, an expansion in gold price will bring about the silver price to rise as well. The
relationship are positive among the substitution goods, as the change of prices between two
goods move at the same direction.
Gold Price and US Currency:
Past discoveries showed US dollar exchange rate had prescient control over the gold
market. Strong and significant negative relationship was found between gold price and US dollar
exchange rate, as gold served as hedge during currency crisis and it could support in diversified
portfolio. This was because majority of gold transactions in the world are done by using the US
dollar. Some researchers suggest that the US dollar was the macroeconomic factor that affects the
gold price.
In world economy, the gold price is dollar-denominated, thus, the fluctuations of dollar
rate has a great impact on gold price. Lets say the dollar exchange rate has reduced. Since gold
is dollar-denominated, the decline in dollar exchange rate will increase the value of other
countries currencies. In other words, foreign investors will tend to have more gold as store of
value. Therefore, the demand for gold will be higher than its initial level, causing the price of
gold to rise. In short, there is a negative relationship between exchange rate and gold price.
The Impact of Gold Price on World Economy:
In order to investigate on the impact of gold price on the world economy, we have chosen
several stock markets from some notable countries in the world. The monthly closing price for
each of the stock markets are taken for the purpose of this research. The indices are the New
York Stock Exchange (NYSE) from US, Hang Seng Index (HSI) from Hong Kong, Straits Times
Index (STI) from Singapore, and NIKKEI Index from Japan. The data taken are totally 20 years,
from 1994 to 2014.
Gold
price
Gold price

NYSE

HSl

NIKKE
I

STI

NYSE

0.383688

HSl

0.666683 0.785427

STI

0.650965 0.857975 0.953227

NIKKEI

-0.22355 0.758823 0.374175 0.482651

1
1
1

Based on the result, gold price has the most significant effect on HSI index in Hong
Kong. The degree of correlation for gold price and HSI index is 0.6667, and they are positively
correlated among each other. Secondly, gold price is also positively correlated to the STI index in
Singapore, with a degree of 0.6510. In other words, changes in gold price will affect the HSI
index and STI index in the same direction. An increase in gold price will definitely cause these
indices to rise, and vice versa.
However, gold price also positively correlated to the NYSE index (0.3837), but the
relation seems weaker compared to the indices discussed above. A change in gold price will
definitely affect the US stock market, but the effect is certainly weaker. The change in gold price
will affect the Japaneses stock market negatively with a degree of -0.2236. According to the
result, NIKKEI index is negatively correlated with the gold price. In other words, they move in
different ways. Although the correlation between these two is not strong, but the negative
relation is there.

Gold & KLCI

2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0

2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0

Gold Price

KLCI

10

Gold & STI

2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0

4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0

Gold Price

STI

As we can see, in KLCI and S.T.I, it is a different ways to happened in Malaysia and
Singapore when gold price is high, stock market is high too. Due to in late of November 2008,
Federal Reserve started to buy back the mortgage backed securities with USD 600billions. And
lowering down the federal interest to 0%, and in Europe country, Bank of England had purchased
around 165 billion in assets as of September 2009 and around 175 billion in assets by the end
of October 2009. The decision made by federal reserve and Europe country makes the
investment fund manager transfer their money from developed country to Asia country which
still provide high interest rate and much more development chances. This makes that when gold
price is going up at late of 2009 to late of 2013, KLCI and S.T.I goes up on the same time too. It
happened the same situation to Singapore too, as we can see in the graph of relationship of STI
and Gold Price. This due to in 2009 Prime Minister of Malaysia announced the project of Greater
KL and make Malaysia as the centre of Islamic Banking in the World. It did attract a lot of
foreign direct investment and foreign portfolio investment towards Malaysia. It happened
differently in Singapore because have a lot of MNCs companies located in singapore so their FDI
and FPI it is increases every year due to stability of politics and good management by their
government.we can see the path easily on the figure 10. It shows that investment in Singapore
have inceases.

11

Figure 10 : FDI inflows to Singapore (% of GDP) from Asia, Europe, the US, and total as at
year-end, 2000-09.

Gold & H.S.I

2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0

35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0

Gold Price

H.S.I

12

Gold & NYSE

2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0

12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0

Gold Price

NYSE

Gold & Nikkei

2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0

25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0

Gold Price

NIKKEI

It happened differently in Japan, US and Hong Kong due to this few

country is the financial market leading country which leading world market
and monetary policy of each country will be affect to world economy decision
very big. When US make the decision of letting interest to become 0% and
have the first Quantitative Easing in late of 2010, it did affect the fund
manager decision to transfer the money out from deposit to investment or
hedge their fund into gold price, this lead to a big increase of stock market in
late of 2010 in NYSE market. This lead to a big increase in 2 big financial
market which is H.S.I and NYSE but Japan stock market it is still in downturn
due to monetary policy in Japan did make investor disappointed.
13

From this gold price versus U.S. real interest rate we can clearly see that U.S interest rate
and gold price have a negative correlated relationship. When U.S. interest boom up, it shows that
investor or individual will transfer their money from the gold to U.S. Bond or deposits.

14

CONCLUSION
Gold investment is just another type of investment that have been accepted worldwide.
The price of gold has give a great impact to the world economy as it is globally invested. The
rises and falls of gold pices is interconnected with the few variables that have been tested. As the
production of gold is very limited, this is why the gold price has boost up recently. Gold has been
said as a heaven for the investor. This is because investor tend to invest in the most safe type of
investment to reduce their risk. As an overall conclusion from the findings result, this study
achieve the objective and research question where to investigate how the changes in gold price
affect the world economy, to study the factors that effects the changes in gold price and to find
out the influences that correlate with gold price.
After the paper studies have been done, it clearly shows that from gold
price it can see that the flow of money in the financial market from which
country to which country. It also shows that in last 15 years in the world, the
gravity of economy have slowly move from West to East. This also show that
it is a new economy powers. During the paper research is going on, we found
out gold price is not only have relationships with stock market and crude oil.
Others reason such as Global Crisis, Inflation, Value of US dollar, Federal
Reserve Instability, Federal Reserve Interest Rate, Quantitative Easing in US,
Government Reserve, Demand from Jewerly and Industry and so on.
This paper studies help us understand more in what is happened in
gold price market. In this paper, we found out actually the interest rate or
quantitative easing in developing country or small country it would not affect
the gold price due to decision in monetary policy in small country would not
affect the world investment fund manager decision or investor decision. It
shows that only in US financial market movement will affect the world
economy and the direction of the gold price. This study is focus on oil price, US
international reserve (billion USD), trade weighted USD index. In future, it is suggested that the
researchers to add more variable to make the research relevant from time to time.

15

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