DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCE

Thomas N. Barnes Center for Enlisted Education (AETC)

Maxwell AFB, AL 36118

1 Oct 13

NONCOMMISSIONED OFFICER ACADEMY

STUDENT GUIDE
PART I
COVER SHEET
LESSON TITLE: UM10, CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT
TIME: 5 Hours
METHOD: Guided Discussion/Experiential Exercise
REFERENCES:
Air Force Instruction (AFI) 36-2618. The Enlisted Force Structure, 1 December 2004.
Chang, Richard Y. Step-By-Step Problem Solving, Irvine, CA: Richard Chang Associates
Inc., publications Division, 1993.
Department of the Air Force. Air Force Smart Operations for the 21st (AFSO21) Century
Playbook, 27 May 2008.
Department of the Air Force. United States Air Force Core Values, 1 January 1997.
George, Michael. Lean Six Sigma for Service. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill, 2003.
Kneeland, Steven. Effective Problem Solving: How to Understand and Process and
Practice it Successfully. Oxford, UK: How to Books, 1999. NetLibrary e-book.
Mackall, Dandi D. Problem Solving. Chicago, IL: Ferguson Publishing Company, 1998.
NetLibrary e-book.
Newman, Victor. Problem Solving for Results. Hampshire, UK: Gower Publishing
Limited, 1995.
VanGundy, Arthur B. 101 Activities for Teaching Creativity and Problem Solving. San
Francisco, CA: John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 2005. NetLibrary e-book.
STUDENT PREPARATION:
1. Read student guide (9,237 words, approximately 80 minutes)
PART IA
GENERAL LEARNING OUTCOME: Students who graduate from the NCOA are better
prepared to Lead and Manage Organizations and Resources as evidenced by their
comprehension of Continuous Improvement.
SUPPORTED COMPETENCIES/DIRECTIVES:
The Continuous Improvement lesson supports the following Air Force Institutional
Competencies:

Managing Organizations and Resources

a. Resource Stewardship
b. Change Management
c. Vision

Strategic Thinking
a. Vision
b. Adaptability

Fostering Collaborative Relationships

a. Builds Teams and Coalitions
b. Negotiating

The Continuous Improvement lesson:

-

Provides the necessary information NCOs need to execute their responsibilities

outlined in AFI 36-2618, The Enlisted Force Structure effectively.

Supports the Air Force Core Values.

Supports the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Instruction (CJCSI) 1805.01A,
Learning Area 6, Operational Leadership which enables leaders to:

Comprehend the ethical dimension of operational leadership and the

challenges it may present.

Recognize the skills required of the senior enlisted personnel when leading
personnel to include the training and development of subordinates, an
understanding of standards and service cultures, and various stressors that
affect the force.

TERMINAL COGNITIVE OBJECTIVE: Comprehend Continuous Improvement and

its impact on mission effectiveness.
TERMINAL COGNITIVE SAMPLES OF BEHAVIOR:
1. Explain how Continuous Improvement impacts mission effectiveness.
2. Give examples of how Continuous Improvement impacts mission effectiveness.
3. Predict how Continuous Improvement impacts mission effectiveness.
AFFECTIVE OBJECTIVE: Value Continuous Improvement

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PART IB
ORGANIZATIONAL PATTERN: Topical
LESSON OUTLINE:
CONTENT
INTRODUCTION Attention, Motivation and Overview
MP 1. Continuous Improvement
MP 2. Decision
MP 3. Problem Solving
MP 4. Scenario
CONCLUSION: Summary, Remotivation, and Closure

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PART II
STUDENT READING
MP 1. Continuous Improvement
As NCOs, we should be looking and thinking daily about innovative ways to use our
resources more efficiently. According to our core values, we must pursue excellence in all
we do.
One way we can do this is through a culture of Continuous Improvement or CI which is
the strategic, never-ending, incremental refinement of the way we perform tasks. CI helps
to shed light on those non-value added tasks to ensure every Airmans efforts contribute
directly to accomplishing the Air Force mission to fly, fight, and win in air, space, and
cyberspace.
Air Force Smart Operations For The 21st Century (AFSO21)
In pursuit of continuous improvement, the Air Force created Air Force Smart Operations
for the 21st Century (AFSO21) which focuses on generating efficiencies and improving
combat capabilities across the Air Force and applies to all processes associated with the
Air Force mission. Governed by proven process improvement techniques, AFSO21 has
already significantly increased Air Force combat capability and it will continue to do so
throughout the 21st century.1 AFSO21 principles and tools enable Airmen to integrate
continuous improvement processes and methodologies into the full spectrum of their dayto-day operations.
The key to AFSO21 success is a culture where every Airman thinks about improvement,
and is empowered to communicate with his or her supervisor, commander or a change
agent. Even processes that work well can be better. Improvements center on core missions
that Airmen handle daily and should encompass AFSO21s Five Desired Effects
AFSO21s Five Desired Effects
The Five Desired Effects guide improvement initiatives at every level to contribute to the
demands of the Warfighter. Every Airman should know and understand these five desired
effects and understand how they improve processes that contribute to Air Force priorities
while also generating efficiencies and savings. The AFSO21 Five Desired Effects are:
1. Increase productivity of our people: Doing more of the right things with the
same or less effort.
2. Increase critical equipment availability rates: Improving asset availability in all
areas of warfare (i.e. air, space, and cyberspace) more expeditiously.
3. Improve response time and agility: Quicker response time to the Warfighter.
4. Sustain safe and reliable operations: Reduce injury rates, increase personnel
safety and safe use of materiel assets.
5. Improve energy efficiency: Make energy conservation a consideration in
everything we do.

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In addition to the Five Desired Effects, AFSO21 also includes three levels of priorities.
AFSO21s Three Levels of Priorities
Continuous process improvements come in different forms. Some processes are quick and
simple fixes; others are complex and may involve several organizations working
improvement plans over a lengthy period. AFSO21s three main categories of process
improvement actions are:
1. Just Do It
2. Rapid Improvement Events (RIE)
3. High Value Initiative (HVI)
Just Do It
You are probably thinking this is a familiar slogan for a famous athletic shoeit is, but it
means something entirely different in the AFSO21 world. Just do it is a quick fix to a
process irritant; a simple answer to an obstacle in an individual process. A Just Do It
typically does not involve formal process reviews, teams, or an improvement event. It is an
improvement that, when implemented, yields immediate results.
Rapid Improvement Events (RIE)
Rapid Improvement Events usually last a week and apply a series of problem solving steps
to determine root causes of problems, eliminate waste, set improvement targets and
establish clear performance measures to reach desired effects.
Successful RIEs usually have the following four components:
- Strong leadership buy-in
- Knowledgeable and open-minded participants
- A tightly focused event scope
- An implementation plan and metrics to track results
High Value Initiative (HVI)
High Value Initiatives produce significant returns against key Air Force challenges. These
processes are more complex and involve a cross functional team to ensure that identified
improvements are incorporated into the day-to-day operations of an organization. HVIs
typically require four to six months in order to successfully define and implement the
required process changes.
Understanding AFSO21s Five Desired Effects and its Three Levels of Priorities are
important, but neither is much good without sound problem solving.

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MP 2. DECISION ANALYSIS
"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we
used when we created them."
- Albert Einstein
Definition of Decision Making
Decision making is the mental (cognitive) process that results in the selection of a course
of action from among several alternative scenarios. 2 Every decision-making process
produces a final choice. The output of which can be an action or an opinion of choice.
Two System Approach to Decision Making
If you look back to the days when you were a brand new airman just learning your job for
the first time, more than likely you had to really focus on the tasks that you were doing.
Now through repetition, tasks you once thought of as complex are now nothing more
than routine actions, decisions, and behaviors. It is only after many hours of complex
analysis, inferences and effective judgments that tasks become routine enough as to require
little or no thought. As long as you can do things the same way, every time, decisions seem
to come easy. However, what happens when things change? As discussed in the Change
Management lesson, we are often uncomfortable with change because change takes us out
of our norm. When we move to something new or different, we are required to consider
new ways of doing things. The old ways of doing things were reactive, instinctive, quick
and holistic (System-1), the new ways are more deliberative, analytical and procedural
(System-2).
System-1 (Reactive Thinking)
Reactive Thinking (System-1) relies heavily on situational cues, prominent memories, trial
and error and heuristic thinking (discovering solutions for self) to arrive quickly and
confidently at judgments, particularly when situations are familiar and immediate action is
required. Many of the judgments that you make every day are automatic or reactive, rather
than reflective. When you wake up in the morning and go to work, chances are that unless
something dramatic happens, you are on auto pilot until you get to work. You probably
do not spend a whole lot of time thinking about how to brush your teeth, how to eat
breakfast or how to drive to work. Many freeway accidents are often avoided because
drivers are able to see and react to dangerous situations quickly. Good decisions emerging
from System-1 thinking often feel intuitive. Decisions good drivers make in those
moments of crisis, just like the decisions practiced athletes make in the flow of the game or
the decisions an NCO makes in the heat of battle, are born of expertise, training, and
practice. Often the process of reactive thinking involves deciding first, reacting and then
trying to make sense out of all of it. Many times if you make a decision based entirely
from reactive thinking you may look back and ask yourself, What was I thinking?
System-2 (Reflective Thinking)
Reflective Thinking (System-2) is broad and informed problem-solving and deliberate
decision making. It is useful for judgments in unfamiliar situations, for processing abstract

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concepts, and for deliberating when there is time for planning and more comprehensive
consideration. Argument making is often part of the deliberation process when making
System-2 decisions. Critical thinking is considered System-2 thinking because it is often
focused on resolving the problem at hand and at the same time monitoring and selfcorrecting the process of the situation or problem. If you recall, in the successful learning
lesson, we discussed reflective journaling and the importance of reflective thinking. In that
lesson you understood that the reflection part of this process begins with a state of doubt,
hesitation or perplexity and moves through the act of searching for information that will
resolve, clarify or address a situation or problem.
As you think about a two-system approach to decision making, do not mistake the process
as a headversus-heart or a right brain-versus-left brain approach. Human decisionmaking is not this superficial or simplistic. Likewise, do not categorize individuals as
System-1 or System-2 decision makers. We have and use both systems in problem solving
and decision making every day. The most important thing to take out of this is that
everyone deals with the push and pull of both systems many times while making decisions.
The other important thing to take away from these concepts is the fact that rapid-fire
decisions and slow deliberate decisions are processes that have steps and require practice.
Using the Appropriate Systems Thinking for Decision Making
If you have ever heard (or maybe said), that is the way we have always done things it is
because too often, many of todays problems are solved by utilizing easy and comfortable
approaches to obtain a solution. In reality as you may have discovered, simple and
common approaches are not always the most effective way of dealing with complex,
dynamic and diverse problems. In your required reading, you have a chance to read about
two incidents that occurred in the Air Force involving the improper handling of nuclear
weapons and materials. Can you think of an example where the more appropriate system
may have been neglected or possibly overlooked altogether?
As a NCO and member of the Profession of Arms, there is an increasing need to improve
and create impeccable results through systems thinking. In essence, system thinking is a
discipline of seeing the whole, recognizing patterns and interrelationships and learning
how to structure more effective, efficient decisions.
Many reactive judgments can be good judgments, but can lead to unnecessary risks and
mistaken biases. Thus, the true decision is which of our reactive judgments should we
make reflective?
Kepner-Tregoe Problem Solving and Decision Making Process
One of the most used decision making models in the world was developed in 1958 by Dr.
Charles Kepner and Dr. Benjamin Tregoe. The Kepner-Tregoe Problem Solving and
Decision Making process is actually four distinct processes, each designed to address a
specific type of situation:
Situation Appraisal: Used to separate, clarify, and prioritize concerns. When
confusion is mounting, the correct approach is unclear, or priorities overwhelm
plans, Situation Appraisal is the tool of choice.
Problem Analysis: Used to find the cause of a positive or negative deviation by
conducting a problem analysis. Through this analysis, we may find people,
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machinery, systems, or processes that are not performing as expected. Problem

Analysis points to the relevant information and leads the way to the root cause.
Decision Analysis: Used for making choices. When the path ahead is uncertain,
when there are too many choices, or the risk of making the wrong choice is high,
Decision Analysis clarifies the purpose and balances risks and benefits to arrive at a
solid and supported choice.
Potential Problem Analysis: To protect actions or plans, we would use a
Potential Problem Analysis. When a project simply must go well, risk is high, or a
myriad of things could go wrong; Potential Problem Analysis reveals the driving
factors and identifies ways to lower risk.
Situational Appraisal, Problem Analysis and Potential Problem Analysis are accomplished
when you complete the eight-step problem solving process. The decision analysis stage of
the Kepner-Tregoe process is where many of individuals fall short of making good sound
decisions.
Decision Analysis
Decision Analysis is a systematic procedure based on the thinking pattern that we all use
when making choices. Every day we go through some sort of decision analysisshould I
eat, should I sleep, should I save this money or spend it. Often, we make decisions based
on feelings instead of using a systematic process.
Although people enjoy being involved in the decision making process, many avoid the task
if there is a potential for controversy. Using systematic decision analysis allows us to make
good, confident, reliable and justifiable decisions because it forces us to step back from the
situation and evaluate the following four components:
- Decision Statement
- Determine Objectives
- Locate Alternatives
- Risk Analysis
By standing back and looking at the whole picture of the situation, we can often make
the wisest and safest choicethrough careful consideration of ALL the factors.
Decision Statement
If you recall, in the problem solving process, one of the first things you should do is to
develop a problem solving statement. In decision analysis, we will do much of the same
and develop a decision statement. This statement will accomplish the following:
- Determine our objective
- Specific level of success or resolution
When we try to determine the objectives of our decision making process what we are really
saying is what is our criteria or level of acceptance. We establish these objectives once we
have agreed upon our decision or course of action in a decision statement. For example, if
we want to buy a new car, our decision statement could be something as simple as I need

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to buy a new car.

The second half of that decision statement must include to what level or to what
purpose? If our objective was to buy a new car to what level would we want our purchase
to be? The complete decision statement would sound something like I need to buy a new
car for under $15,000.
Determine Objectives
All too often, we fail to think about the specific objective(s) of our decisions. Objectives
are clear measures of the ends we want to achieve it is only through clear measures that we
can make a reasonable sensible decision.
If we wanted to purchase a new car, it should be obvious that we want to make the best
purchase possible and the best way to make the best purchase is to identify the qualities we
want in a new car BEFORE we begin shopping. It does not make sense to buy the first car
that attracts our attention, but amazingly, this happens every day.
To reach our objective(s) we must consider two categoriesour Musts and our Wants.
Note: Musts are mandatory! That is, all alternatives under consideration must meet
our Musts. Though Musts may not be our most important objective, they are a
minimum objective.
The Wants are optional, nice to have attributes or qualities. Wants give us a comparative
picture of alternatives.
Sometimes, we are willing to compromise, move a Must to the Want category, and
occasionally, move a Want to the Musts category. It all depends on what the decision is
trying to accomplish. Here is an easy way to remember Musts and Wants:
The Musts are mandatory, the Wants are optional.
Lets explore a 4-step decision analysis model using TSgt Amazings car-buying
experience.
STEP 1: Decision Statement
Purchase a reliable new car for the least amount of money for college-bound daughter.
STEP 2: Determine Musts and Wants
From the decision statement, we can extract TSgt Amazings Musts such as reliable, new,
and least cost. Thus his Musts may look something like:
Musts
- Cost less than $15,000
-

Come with a 5-year warranty

Have an automatic transmission

Have earned a 5-star crash safety rating

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Wants
-

Have cold air conditioning

Be blue in color

Equipped with a sun roof

Have front wheel drive

Come with an excellent repair record

Before moving to Step 3, TSgt Amazing will need to assign weights to the Wants. To do
this he used a rating scale of 1 to 10 for his list of Wants1 representing least important
and 10 representing most important.
Wants

Weight

Air Conditioning

Blue in Color

Sun Roof

Front Wheel Drive

Excellent repair record

Some final thoughts when assigning weights to the Wants. First, always do it BEFORE
proceeding to Step 3. Secondly, ensure these weights are based on the personal opinion
and/or values of the person or persons making the decision.
STEP 3: Locate Alternatives/Select Best Alternative
After determining the Musts, Wants, and assigning weights to those Wants, it is time to
find potential alternatives. Alternatives can come from many sources. In the car-buying
scenario, TSgt Amazing might find alternatives (potential cars to purchase) at local car
dealers, in newspaper ads, and online.
On the other hand, when you are in need of alternatives for solving a problem, alternatives
can come from:
-

Brainstorming with end users

Research

Your own creative thinking

Subject-Matter Experts

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Step 3a: Locating Alternatives

Lets take a look at the five alternatives that TSgt Amazing came up with in Table1:
Alternative 1

Alternative 2

Alternative 3

Alternative 4

Alternative 5

- $16,998.95
- 6-Yr Warranty
- Automatic
Transmission

- $14,599.00
- 6-Yr Warranty
- Automatic
Transmission

- $13,495.95
- 7-Yr Warranty
- Manual
Transmission

- $14,095.00
- 5-Yr Warranty
- Automatic
Transmission

- 5-Star Crash
Safety Rating
- Air
Conditioning
- Black

- Air Condition

- Fair Repair
Record
- 5-Star Safety
Rating
- Air
Conditioning

- FW Drive

- FW Drive
- 5-Star Safety
Rating

- Good Repair
Record
- 5-Star Safety
Rating
- Air
Conditioning
(Dual Control)
- Light Blue
- FW Drive

- $12,998.95
- 6-Yr Warranty
- Performance
Automatic
Transmission
- 5-Star Crash
Safety Rating
- Bluish-Green

- Metallic Blue
- Sunroof
(Manual)

- Red
- Sunroof
- FW Drive

- Sunroof
(Manual)
- FW Drive
- Air Condition

- Sunroof
(Electronic)

Table 1, Locating Alternatives

Step 3b: Comparing Alternatives to Musts

This step is very simple, especially when you use a comparison sheet like the one shown
below. Enter Musts in the criteria column and then enter Yes or No for each alternative
that fulfills a corresponding Must. The sheet places criteria and alternatives side-by-side to
quickly eliminate alternatives that do not meet ALL of the Musts.
Criteria (Musts)

Alt 1

Alt 2

Alt 3

Alt 4

Alt 5

Costs $15,000 (or less)

No

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

5-year warranty

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Automatic transmission

Yes

Yes

No

Yes

Yes

5-star crash safety rating

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Table 2, Comparing the Musts

As you can see from the worksheet above, alternative 2, 4, and 5 satisfy all of the Musts.
With our alternatives narrowed down to these three, our next step is to weigh the Wants of
each alternative.
Step 3c: Weighting the Wants within each Alternative
Although we have narrowed our alternatives from five to three, we still need to determine
which one is the best by continuing our systematic process. This next step involves some
simple math and the use of another worksheet.

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First, we enter our Wants into the Criteria column and our previously determined weights
into the Weight column (from Step 2).
Next, we need to consider and weigh Want items against like Want items from each
alternative. For example, the first Want item in the worksheet below is Air Conditioning
(or A/C). All three alternatives offer A/C; however, alternative #4 has dual control air
conditioning. Based on our personal opinion (we really like dual control A/C), we might
assign a value of 7 to alternative #4 and then assign a value of 5 to air conditioning in the
#2 and #5 alternatives. We repeat this process for each subsequent Want. Notice the Want
Front Wheel Drive is identical in all three alternatives so we assigned the same value to
each one.
Criteria (WANTs)

Previously
Determined
Weight

Alt 2
Weight

Air Conditioning

Blue in Color

Sun Roof

Front Wheel Drive

Excellent repair record

Score

Alt 4
Weight

Score

Alt 5
Weight

Score

Table 3, Assigning Weights to Alternative Items

Step 3d: Computing Scores for Each Alternative

Now we perform a little math. Begin by multiplying the Previously Determined Weight by
the Weight of the first item in Alternative 2 (9 x 5 = 45). Do this for all remaining items in
all remaining alternatives. Next, add up the scores for each alternative column.
Criteria (WANTs)

Previously
Determined
Weight

Alt 2

Score

Alt 4

Score

Alt 5

Score

Air Conditioning

45
(9x5)

63
(9x7)

45
(9x5)

Blue in Color

36
(4x9)

16
(4x4)

12
(4x3)

Sun Roof

6
(3x2)

15
(3x5)

6
(3x2)

Front Wheel Drive

35
(7x5)

35
(7x5)

35
(7x5)

Excellent Repair Record

0
(2X0)

6
(2X3)

Total Scores

10
(2x5)

122

135

108

(45+36
+6+35+0)

(63+16
+15+35+6)

(45+12
+6+35+10)

Table 4: Figuring Total Scores

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At this point, the decision seems clear; alternative #4 scored highest and therefore, must be
our BEST choice; however, there is still one very important step left: Risk Analysis.
STEP 4: Risk Analysis
The last step of Decision Analysis is when you look at your choice and determine four
things:
- Is there anything I overlooked?
- Are there any potential issues as a result of a Must?
- Is there a possibility that my choice is invalid? If so, how severe are the
implications?
- Is there anything that might prevent me from being comfortable with my choice?
For example, if assume that we just learned the dealer offering alternative #4 is filing for
bankruptcy, then we may not be comfortable buying from the dealer. To be sure, we rate
probability and seriousness of the consequence using the scale: high, medium, and low.
Alternative

Consequence

Probability

Seriousness

Alternative #4

Potential Bankruptcy

High

High

Table 5: Risk Analysis

Given the high probability and high seriousness, we would then consider our second
highest scoring alternative (i.e. alternative #2) and conduct a risk analysis on it.
In some cases, as we work through Risk Analysis, we may discover a detail that is so
important, we add it to our list of Musts. Anytime we change, (add to or subtract from) our
list of Musts, we must work our way through Steps 3 and 4 again. This additional work is
well worth the effort because it results in selecting the best alternative.
After completing the Risk Analysis step, we are now in a position to decide whether
Alternative #4 (or #2 or #5) is truly our best choice.
Let us assume that because our risk analysis on Alternative 2 did not indicate any
concerns, we select Alternative 2. Now, if anyone asks why we selected Alternative 2, we
can provide hard data to support our decision.
Enlisted leaders do not need to run every decision they make through such an elaborate
process. In fact, the Air Force depends on NCOs to apply their extensive knowledge and
experience (System-1 Thinking and Decision Making) to most day-to-day decisions.
However, there are times when NCOs have to make critical decisions and solve complex
problems. In these cases, using a Decision Analysis process, like the one outlined above
will help ensure high quality, fact-based decisions.

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MP 3. PROBLEM SOLVING
OODA LOOP
In the 1950s, Col John R. Boyd, USAF, developed an objective description of the decision
making process called OODA (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) Loop. Because of Col
Boyds emphasis on the infinitely repeating nature of decision making, his model fully
supports the concept of Continuous Improvement because both concepts support the notion
that the decision making process is never actually complete. The Air Force takes the four
steps of the OODA Loop and further breaks them down into an eight-step problem-solving
roadmap that is flexible enough to be effective at any level: Air Force, MAJCOM, wing,
squadron, and even the individual Airman.3
Consistent application of the eight-step processvia the OODA Loopprovides Air
Force leaders with a common format for presenting data, problem-solving facts, and
information. It also provides a common language, which will more easily translate into a
common understanding throughout the Air Force. As Air Force leaders begin to hone their
understanding of how they and their organizations solve problems and make decisions,
they will learn to recognize the difference between time spent constructively solving
problems at the root-cause level and wasting time spinning their wheels.4 As NCOs,
problem solving is perhaps our most important skill because we make decisions and solve
problems every day.
Just to be clear, the objective of the eight-step problem-solving process is to help us focus
on big issues affecting our mission, our workcenter, and our people.
It is a team-centered, systematic, common-sense approach aimed at increasing
combat capability, making Air Force units more effective and efficient, and
enhancing and enabling the war fighter.
As resources continue to shrink (budgets, human resources, facilities, and equipment),
every Airman must be mindful to get the full effect from every effort. In other words, we
cannot afford to waste our time on tasks, projects, or other things that do not add
direct value or positively affect our organizations, or the Air Forces mission.
As you read this student guide, do not get too wrapped up in memorizing which steps of
the eight-step process correlate with steps within the OODA Loop. In its simplest form,
the OODA Loop is a process where problem solvers take a good look at the current
situation and form theories about the problem (Observe), gather data and information to
substantiate those theories (Orient), develop solutions to address the problem (Decide), and
then implement and evaluate their solutions (Act). The real take away from this lesson is
that problem solving and decision making are never-ending processes aimed at constant,
continuous improvement.

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Eight-Step Problem Solving Process

Figure 1, 8-Step Problem-Solving Process

STEP 1: Clarify & Validate the Problem (OODA)

We must clarify large, vague, and complicated problems as objectively as possible before
we can identify the real problem and properly address it.5 So knowing what to tackle first
is important. This first step is critical to your success, define the problem. Remember, A
problem well stated is a problem half solved.6 In order to clarify the problem for
everyone, you must develop a clear problem statement.
The following techniques help clarify, validate, and define the problem and they assist in
deciding which problem(s) to tackle first.
Go and See
Observe first-hand what is taking place. Actually walking the process or problem
area provides first hand data rather than second hand opinions. Ensure you base
your information on facts, not assumptions. Assumptions are the lowest form of
logic and more often than not result in faulty conclusions, which skew the process
of analyzing potential causes.
Voice of the Customer (VOC)
Only one entity can define what is valuable to the customer and that is the
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customer. So identifying customers and determining their needs (document the

VOC) is a prerequisite to understanding whether or not those needs are being met.
Feedback is the key to understanding customer needs. The best methods for
obtaining feedback include customer surveys, hot lines, and face-to-face meetings.
Customer surveys are not only a great way to collect data, they often indicate
negative and positive trends. Of course, surveys are only as good as the questions
they contain. Surveys should target the particular problem you are trying to solve,
contain only questions related to the issue and seek unbiased feedback from a
proper sample population size. Unbiased feedback helps clarify and validate
customers and their concerns.
A problem statement describes the problem in clear, specific, measurable terms and states
the current condition exactly. Use terminology that indicates quantity, quality, time, cost,
or any term, which quantifies or qualifies the problem. Avoid implying any cause or
solution as that keeps you from exploring all possible solutions. A good problem
statement is:7
1. Written Down: Usually in one paragraph because more than one paragraph
indicates more than one problem in a single problem statement.
2. Factual: All the descriptive terms should be precise, without emotion, and
without names.
3. Agreed to by All Parties: Lack of consensus at this stage indicates the problem
is still unclear.
A good problem statement should answer the following questions:
1. What is the problem? Often two or three words (a noun and a verb) are
enough (i.e. target was missed, aircraft still broken, repair was slow, computer has
crashed, Airman was late).
2. Where did the problem happen? Clearly explain the location where the
problem occurred (e.g. in the reception/customer service area).
3. When did the problem happen? Clearly identify when the problem occurred
(e.g. during the preliminary inspection, while conducting shift change).
4. What is the significance of the problem? Many problems exist, some are
more critical than others are. When tackling any problem supervisors should ask
themselves: Does solving this problem support the strategic goals of my
organization?
Consider the following situation: Your boss just put you in charge of the fuels flight
distribution section where you supervise the fuel truck operators. Their current average
response time to fuel aircraft is 40 minutes. This has been a gradual increase over the last
4 months when the average response time was 25 minutes. The acceptable standard is no
more than 30 minutes. Therefore, your problem statement might be:
Average response time to fuel aircraft on the ground has increased from
25 minutes to 40 minutes over the last 4 months. The increase in time to
refuel the aircraft has caused delays and missed sorties.

UM10SG - 16

This problem statement is clear, specific, and uses measurable terms of quantity and time.
Its objective and clearly identifies the current condition
STEP 2: Break Down the Problem/Identify Performance Gaps (OODA)
The better we understand the problem, the better the solution, but those who haphazardly
want to take action and implement solutions find this step frustrating. Only by thoroughly
evaluating a problem are we able to judge the impact of selected and alternative solutions.
Key Process Indicators and Metrics (KPI/M)
The first step in assessing a problem area is gathering and reviewing Key Process
Indicators and Metrics (KPI/M). Understanding what objective data is needed and what
the data means once it has been gathered is critical to root cause problem solving and
process improvement.
Metrics are the means to measure results that must complement our organizations
operations and determine whether we have achieved the desired goal(s) and/or objective(s).
There are two types of metrics: leading and lagging.8
1. Leading metrics (outcome-based) make future predictions about a likely
occurrence, thus allowing us to predict or forecast potential problems and neutralize
or avoid them.
2. Lagging metrics (results-oriented) track overall performance trends that are
collected and reported after-the-fact. Because of the after-the-fact reporting,
potential problems may become more of a problem than previously reported.
Value and Waste Analysis
This is another valuable assessment tool that helps break down the problem and identify
performance gaps. It helps streamline and improve productivity, quality, and customer
service. Knowing the following eight types of waste helps you recognize how the problem
impacts your mission:9
1. Defects Work that contains errors, rework, mistakes, or lacks essentials
2. Over-production Generating more than is currently needed
3. Waiting Idle time created when material, information, people or equipment is
unavailable
4. Nonstandard over-processing Efforts that create no value from the customers
viewpoint
5. Transportation Movement of material or information that does not add value
6. Intellect Any failure to fully utilize the time and talents of people
7. Motion Movement of people that does not add value
8. Excess inventory Excessive information, parts and material are on hand and
not needed
Performance Gap Analysis
Performance Gap Analysis identifies the difference between the current level of
UM10SG - 17

performance and the desired level of performance and can assist in understanding the
difference between current performance and customers requirements (VOC).
How do you know when to stop gathering and analyzing problem data? Use the following
questions as a guide:10
1. Does the problem require more analysis or is there enough information to execute a
solution?
2. If more information is needed:
a. What measures are available today?
b. Do these measures align with the customer driven Key Performance Indicators
(KPI)?
c. Is there a gap between the data available and the data required? i.e. Does the data
needed not exist yet?
d. What is the gap between current performance and the customers requirements?
e. Does the data point to any specific areas of root cause?
f. Does the data indicate a constraint?
STEP 3: Set Improvement Target (OODA)
Once you have developed a clear and objective problem statement, Step 1, Clarify &
Validate the Problem, broken down the problem, and identified performance gaps, Step 2,
you then need to identify a goal and develop a goal statement. A goal is your desired state,
where you want to be when you solve the problem.
If you do not know where you are going, how will you know when you get there? A clear
goal statement provides focus and direction and makes it possible to look into the future
and target progress as you solve the problem. Consider the following two aspects when
crafting improvement targets:
1. Strategic Vision: Strategic Vision is a view into the future that describes how an
organization will strategically perform or conduct business. It implies a gap between the
current performance and a better future performance.11
2. Tactical Targets: Tactical Targets define the performance levels required to make the
goal a reality. Targets should be challenging but achievable and have B-SMART
characteristics:12
3.

B-SMART
-- Balanced Ensure goals are balanced across the multiple fronts of organizational
output and multiple targets
-- Specific Have desirable outputs that are based on subject matter expert
knowledge and experience and are applicable to the process improvement activity
-- Measurable Includes time frames and have data that is obtainable from specific
sources

UM10SG - 18

-- Attainable Resources are available, may have some risk, but success is possible
-- Results Focused Link to the mission, vision, and goals and are meaningful to the
user
-- Timely Provide step-by-step views versus giant leaps and are measurable at
interim milestones
Using the previous problem statement, a goal statement might be,
Average response time to fuel aircraft will decrease to 20 minutes three months
from now, and will not increase thereafter.
Or, you could write,
Average response time to fuel aircraft will decrease to 20 minutes by (use an
actual date) and wont increase thereafter.
In fact, there are many ways to write a goal for this problem, the idea is to ensure it is
balanced, specific, measurable, attainable, results focused, and timely. At this point, you
should take your problem and goal statements, and begin determining root causes.
STEP 4: Determine Root Cause (OODA)
All too often Air Force leaders find themselves addressing problems that have been
solved many times before. This is usually due to problem solving efforts directed at the
symptoms of a problem rather than at the root cause of the problem. If an aircraft is
constantly breaking down and becomes non-mission capable, should we: reduce the
aircraft usage, improve repair cycle time, improve the quality of replacement parts,
improve the aircraft design, or improve the aircraft design process. Clearly, each step
becomes increasingly difficult but each step also has a greater impact in preventing the
reoccurrence of the problem.
Root Cause Analysis is a tradeoff between digging as deeply as possible and
finding the deepest point that is still within your sphere of influence.
There are several tools that can assist your with determining the true root cause.
Root Cause Problem Solving
Root Cause problem solving is not reacting to a decision that seemed to work
before. Just because a specific reaction worked before, that does not guarantee it
will work again. Other variables could have influenced the problem. To help
determine the root cause of a problem consider the perceived initial problem based
on standards, clarify the situation, locate the cause of the problem based on firsthand observations, and look for the direct cause and effect.
The Five Whys
When trying to understand what is causing a problem, ask Why? at least five
times, more if necessary, what is causing the problem. This technique helps you
understand how different causes are related, but more importantly, it helps identify
the true root of the problem. Begin with a problem statement and ask, Why did
the problem occur? Continue to ask why four more times or until an answer does
not yield any more useful information. By using this method with all of your

UM10SG - 19

potential causes, you may end up with the same root cause popping up everywhere.
Brainstorming
A technique designed to stimulate a chain reaction of ideas relating to a problem. It helps
you, or a team, build a variety of ideas in a short time about a specific problem or topic.
To get the most from a brainstorming session, use the following rules and techniques:
1. Withhold Judgment: The first and foremost rule is to withhold judgment of any kind.
Make no evaluation, criticism, or judgment about any idea until the brainstorming session
is over.
2. Encourage Freewheeling: The second rule of brainstorming is to encourage the
freewheeling of ideas. This enables all individuals to contribute. Once ideas begin
flowing, the leader allows the group to continue under its own steam with little or no
guidance.
3. Aim for Quantity, Not Quality: Remember, you are not judging the ideas yet. Once
ideas are flowing, write down every one. The whole idea of brainstorming is to aim for
quantity, not quality. Some ideas might be silly, but most will contain at least some quality
information.
4. Hitchhike (piggyback) Ideas: The last rule in brainstorming allows an idea to piggyback
or hitchhike on another idea. In a brainstorming session, one member of the group
suggests an idea. This idea triggers a thought in the mind of another and the process
continues until you have a series of ideas, all prompted by one original thought or idea.
Brainstorming Techniques
Along with certain rules, there are four techniques for conducting a brainstorming session.
1. Structured Approach: This approach means soliciting one idea at a time from each
person on the team. Participants only comment when it is their turn. If they have no
comment, they say, Pass. The session ends when everyone says, Pass.
2. Unstructured Approach (also called free-form brainstorming): Here, team members call
out ideas as they come to mind. No one takes turns and the session ends when the team
feels it has exhausted all ideas.
3. Silent Approach: Used when you want team members to write ideas on small slips of
paper. You then collect the papers and jot down ideas for all to see.
4. Fish Bone Diagram (Cause and Effect Diagram): A diagram used to depict the
relationship between specific categories of process inputs and the undesirable output. This
technique helps to identify potential causes to a problem.

UM10SG - 20

Figure 2, Fish Bone Diagram13

Fill in the fishbone by generating as many causes as possible using brainstorming.

Although the diagram uses the 3Ms and a P (Materials, Methods, Machines, and People),
feel free to categorize causes in ways that make sense for your situation. Two other useful
categories include the 4Ss (Surroundings, Suppliers, Systems, and Skills) and the 4Ps
(Policies, Procedures, People, and Plant). Do not worry too much about the categories,
they are not as important as identifying potential causes.
STEP 5: Develop Countermeasures (OODA)
This is where you develop solution(s). The decision making and solution development step
is over halfway through the eight-step process. If you completed the first four steps
correctly this step should be the easiest. As simple as this step is, there are some very
important guidelines to follow in order to ensure the greatest possible likelihood of
success.
Analysis of Alternatives
Not all countermeasures are workable; therefore, thoroughly analyze alternatives
for workability prior to implementation.
Use the following to test possible countermeasures for workability14
Effectiveness Will the countermeasure help achieve the target/goal? How well
will it work? Will it prevent reoccurrence of the problem?
Feasibility Is the countermeasure possible given cost, management approval,
resources, safety, and time?
Impact Will this countermeasure create more problems than it solves? How will
it affect jobs, other operations, teams, and the Air Force?
Begin testing with a very general analysis of the alternatives and eliminate any obviously
unworthy alternatives. Then, subject the refined list of alternatives to a detailed analysis

UM10SG - 21

until one or more meet some or all the criteria. After selecting countermeasures, develop a
plan to communicate the change to all affected personnel.
The key principal to remember is that the impact of a solution is a combination of the
quality of the solution and the acceptance of the solution by the people who must
implement it. The relationship is similar to a mathematical formula:
(Quality of solution) X (Acceptance) = Impact
Excellent solutions with no [zero] acceptance equals zero impact. On the other hand, an
average solution that receives some support will have some impact. With the entire first
half of the eight-step problem solving process focused on the left half of the equation it is
now up to you to present the solution in such a way as to gain its acceptance by those who
will implement it.15
When developing countermeasures it is important to gain consensus among stakeholders.
This involvement brings commitment and a sense of ownership of the solution.
Communication is critical to prevent complaints of the solution process.
Finally, consider other alternatives rather than attempt to implement ineffective
countermeasures or ones that are not feasible or have little impact.
STEP 6: See Countermeasures Through (OODA)
With countermeasures developed, it is time to see them through which includes:
communicating the plan to those affected, implementing the new process, and handling
unexpected issues that pop up.
Six S
Six S is a systematic approach to productivity, quality, and safety improvement. It
focuses on achieving visual order, organization, cleanliness, and standardization. The
following Six S areas can help improve profitability, efficiency, and service:
1. Sort clean and organize
2. Straighten identify, organize, and arrange
3. Shine routine cleaning and maintenance
4. Standardize simplify and standardize
5. Sustain continue training and maintaining standards
6. Safety priority in all improvement areas16
Visual Management
This is the use of visual indicators (displays and controls) to help you and others determine
immediately whether you are in a standard condition or deviating from it. This tool is used
to establish a visual work environment thats set up with signs, labels, color-coded
markings, etc., such that anyone unfamiliar with the process can acknowledge and
understand the process, and knows whats being done correctly and incorrectly.17

UM10SG - 22

Standard Work
Standard work is the foundation of continuous improvement. Therefore, the best known
approach to completing a task is by ensuring consistency throughout the working process
so that the same work will take the same amount of resources to achieve the same results
every time. If work processes are not standardized, it is impossible to effectively
experiment and test new ideas for improvement. If the current process is not standard, then
it will be impossible to assess the impact of improvements upon process outputs. To
ensure consistency and standardization in work processes: involve Airmen from all shifts;
let the process workers define the work and gain consensus; keep it simple; and document
the standard work and train from the documentation.18
Material/Information Flow
Based on customer requirements and demands, material/information flow determines what
material and information is required to implement the countermeasure. Continue to
improve and implement product, material, and information flow throughout the See
Countermeasures Through process.
In addition to the above areas, most process improvements require some form of training to
make the solution work. Normally, the training will link to the communications plan
developed in Step Five, Develop Countermeasures, and usually involves several levels of
the organization simultaneously. Implementers and front line supervisors need the most
intensive training with less detailed, but no less important training, provided to leadership.
Customers and suppliers of the targeted process may also need training.19
STEP 7: Confirm Results & Process (OODA)
Step seven closely mirrors the data collection portion of Step Two, Break Down the
Problem/Identify Performance Gaps. Implementation requires a variety of reviews and
acknowledgements to confirm results and processes.
Conducting a Review
Incorrect root causes determination is the most common mistake in problem solving. By
solely focusing on problems, you must set a positive tone or the reviews will become
punishment. Therefore, it is critical to establish a balance between learning and creating an
environment where it is unacceptable to hide problems. Reviews should not be concerned
with a particular end or purpose but rather planned to accomplish a specific objective, such
as:
1. Understand the current situation in comparison to the committed plan
2. Develop higher levels of behavior and performance
3. Create a sense of team from common purposes
4. Instill a sense of pride in accomplishment
5. Establish accountability
6. Work problems familiar to the entire group
7. Provide rewards and recognition20

UM10SG - 23

Rewards and Recognition

Recognition is a powerful tool that can make workplaces, on average, 15-25 percent more
productive, making Airmen more engaged and committed to their work and organization.
There are six principles of recognition efforts:
1. Timely given as soon as possible (immediately if possible) after the desired
performance
2. Proportional Dont overdo for average or mediocre performance
3. Sincere honest and open appreciation of their efforts
4. Specific Recognize notable efforts in detail
5. Individual Recognize personal contributions
6. Personal Recognition should fit the individuals desires21
While confirming results, the review should combine personal/professional development
and acknowledgement of desired behavior and performance. This type of review helps
standardization and continuous process improvement throughout the organization.
STEP 8: Standardize Successful Processes (OODA)
Step eight is the most commonly skipped and most under completed step of the entire
problem solving process. It is very tempting to take newfound knowledge and skills and
immediately move on to the next improvement initiative without ensuring the results stick.
Upon completion of step 8, consider standardizing improvements, communicating
improvements and lessons learned, and identifying opportunities or problems identified in
the problem solving process:22 What is needed to standardize the improvements:
1. Changes to:
a. Technical orders
b. Air Force Instructions
c. Other official policies or procedures
d. Equipment
e. Material
f. Vendors or Suppliers
2. Communicate improvements and lessons learned:
a. Key Meetings
b. Air Force Publications, message traffic, chain of command
c. Communities of Practice (Air Force Knowledge Now)
3. What other opportunities (problems) were identified by the problem solving
process?
That covers the OODA Loop and the 8-step problem-solving process. Now it is time to
examine a critical part of the problem-solving process, decision making.

UM10SG - 24

MP 4. SCENARIO
The EPR
MSgt Yost was a brand new superintendent and new to the unit, but had already attended
three Wing Commander staff meetings. As the EPR slide popped up on the screen, she
clinched her fist and watched as Chief Barnes squirmed in his seat. Chief the Wing
Commander said, it looks as if your squadron has done it again. The Chiefs face turned
red and MSgt Yost felt bad for him as the Wing Commander pointed his finger directly at
the Chief and stated, I would recommend that you work harder on getting your EPRs in
on time before next months staff meeting!
Chief Barnes just walked out of the Wing Commanders monthly staff meeting shaking his
head. This is the third month in a row the Wing Commander has chewed him out because
his organization keeps showing up on the Late EPR slide. In fact, his squadrons EPR
on-time rate is the worst in the entire wing for the last 4 months. You know Master
Sergeant Yost, the Chief replies, were getting our tails kicked at stand up every month
because of late EPRs. As MSgt Yost walks down the sidewalk towards her office, she
asks herself, What can we do to fix this problem?
As MSgt Yost sits at her desk, she wonders how the EPR issue got so bad. The next day,
MSgt Yost grabs her notebook and begins to walk around the unit introducing herself and
asking questions about the current EPR process and the existing problems and concerns
with it. After just a couple hours, MSgt Yost has collected over four pages of feedback
regarding the units EPR process and potential issues. That afternoon, she calls a staff
meeting with all her section supervisors and after explaining the EPR situation says, If we
dont take care of our people, the ones who take care of the mission, our organization as a
whole will suffer the consequences.

UM10SG - 25

Attachment 1
Small Group Activity
The House Hunter
Scenario
Technical Sergeant Jones just PCSd to Sheppard Air Force Base, Texas. He and his
spouse have decided to buy a house rather than rent. They have three children. A 16-year
old daughter and two boys 15 and 13 years old.
After discussing the purchase at length, they plan to use their VA home loan eligibility,
since they have saved only $15,000 for a down payment and closing costs. They also
looked over their combined income and debt and decided the mortgage payment (with tax
and insurance) cannot exceed $1100.00 per month. In addition, they plan on retiring in the
area and prefer not to have to work again, so they will limit their mortgage payments to
just fifteen years.
After some additional discussions, they realize they prefer being close to the schools and
the base and that a house with four bedrooms and two full bathrooms would be ideal, but if
that turns out to be too expensive they need a house with at least three bedrooms and one
full bathroom. They would also like a garage, fenced yard, wood-burning fireplace, and
workshop.
Alternatives
House #1 is a two-story, Cape Cod style house 30 minutes from Sheppard AFB and only
one block from the largest high school in Wichita Falls. The home is 12 years old and has
a formal dining room, three bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and a large family room with a
stone fireplace. It also has a fenced-in back yard and a detached two-car garage. The
asking price is $135,000. The owner wants $35,000 down. This would require using their
$15,000 in savings plus a second loan for the other $20,000. Their mortgage payment on a
30-year mortgage would be $650 and the second loan payment would be $550.
House #2 is a modern design with four bedrooms and one and a half bathrooms. It also
has a fireplace, den, formal dining room, a detached two-car garage, fenced backyard, and
a small utility building. The house is close to a major shopping mall. The school is just
two blocks away, and it is about 10 minutes driving time to the base. The asking price is
$125,000. They could use their $15,000 down and get a VA guaranteed loan for the rest.
With a 15-year mortgage, their payments would be around $1100 per month.
House #3 is a newer three-bedroom home with one full bathroom. It has a dining room
and a spacious den. It is about 35 minutes from the base and the children would need to
take a bus to the school. The house also comes with an attached one-car garage/workshop
and a large open yard. The asking price is $107,000. With a $15,000 down payment, they
have the choice of $1050 per month for 15 years or $950 per month for 30 years.

UM10SG - 26

Attachment 2
STEP 1: DECISION STATEMENT:

STEP 2: DETERMINE OBJECTIVES (criteria for decision)

List the Musts
Musts are mandatory

Weigh the
Wants
(1-10)

List the Wants

Wants are optional

STEP 3: Alternatives (Compared to the Musts)

Enter Yes or No
for each item
Alt #1

List Musts

UM10SG - 27

Alt #2

Alt #3

Wants

Previously
Determined
Weight (PDW)

Alt
_____
Weight

Score
(PDW x Alt
Weight)

Alt
______
Weight

(__ x __) = __

Score
(PDW x Alt
Weight)

(__ x __) =
__

(__ x __) = __

(__ x __) =
__

(__ x __) = __

(__ x __) =
__

(__ x __) = __

(__ x __) =
__

(__ x __) = __

(__ x __) =
__

(__ x __) = __

(__ x __) =
__

(__ x __) = __

(__ x __) =
__

(__ x __) = __

(__ x __) =
__

Totals

_______

________

Risk Analysis: (What problems might be encountered, what are the unintended consequences?)
1) Is there anything I overlooked? 2) Are there any potential issues because of a Must? 3) Is there a
possibility that my choice is invalid (if so how severe are the implication)? 4) Is there anything that might
prevent me from being comfortable with my choice?
Alternative

Consequence

Alt # __________

Alt # __________

Final Decision

We selected alternative #_____________

UM10SG - 28

Probability

Seriousness

NOTES

Department of the Air Force. Air Force Smart Operations for the 21st (AFSO21) Century
Playbook, 27 May 2008
2
James Reason (1990). Human Error. Ashgate
3

Department of the Air Force, Air Force Smart Operations for the 21st Century Playbook, B-1.

Ibid, B-2

Air Force Smart Operations for the 21st Century (AFSO21) Playbook, Tools and Methodology, Version 2.0,
Volume J, October 2007, J-4.
6

Charles F. Kettering, Quotes, Thinkexist.com, http://en.thinkexist.com/quotation/

a_problem_well_stated_is_a_problem_half/159095.html.
7

AFSO21, Tools and Methodology, J-8.

AFSO21, Tools and Methodology, J-11.

AFSO21, Tools and Methodology, J-12-13.

10

AFSO21, Tools and Methodology, J-17 and B-4.

11

Air Force Smart Operations for the 21st Century (AFSO21) Playbook, Introduction to the Eight Step OODA
LOOP AFSO21 Problem Solving Model, Version 2.0, Volume B, October 2007, B-4.
12

AFSO21, Tools and Methodology, J-12.

13

Richard Y. Chang and Keith P. Kelly, Step-By-Step Problem Solving (CA: Richard Chang Associates, Inc.
Publishing Division, 1994), 97.
14

AFSO21, Tools and Methodology, J-32.

15

AFSO21, Introduction to the Eight Step OODA LOOP AFSO21 Problem Solving Model, B-6.

16

AFSO21, Tools and Methodology, J-45.

17

AFSO21, Tools and Methodology, J-43.

18

AFSO21, Tools and Methodology, J-67.

19

AFSO21, Tools and Methodology, J-47.

20

AFSO21, Tools and Methodology, J-71.

21

AFSO21, Tools and Methodology, J-72-73.

22

AFSO21, Introduction to the Eight Step OODA LOOP AFSO21 Problem Solving Model, B-8.

UM10SG - 29