The Logic of Hypothesis Testing

INTRODUCTION

Suppose a politician wants to know if a majority (more than 50%) of her constituents are in favor
of a certain policy. The politician hires a polling firm to obtain a random sample of 500
registered voters in her district and asks them to disclose whether they are in favor of the policy.
What would be convincing evidence that the true (that is, population) proportion of registered
voters is greater than 50%?
In this scenario, we will investigate by testing two hypotheses:
.

versus

The first hypothesis (

called "H-naught" or the "Null Hypothesis") is the assumption that
constituents are not in favor or against the policy, it is just 50/50 ... like a coin toss!
The second hypothesis (
called "H-one" or the "Alternative Hypothesis") is that the majority
of constituents are in favor of the policy.
To investigate this, we will use the Political Poll Applet to simulate surveying 500 registered
voters, assuming that 50% of all registered voters are in favor of the policy and 50% are against
the policy. We do this because we will always start by assuming that the statement in the null
hypothesis is true until we have evidence to the contrary. So we assume that we are sampling
from a population where the proportion of registered voters who are in favor of the policy is 0.5,
then see what happens.

ASSIGNMENT

Use a word processing program to type out your numbered responses to each question. Save the
file as a .pdf and submit it to the assignment in CANVAS.
1. Explain how 500 coins might be used to simulate the survey results. What would a coin
flip represent? What would each outcome represent? Clearly tie to the real situation
you're trying to model. Each of the 500 coins represents a randomly selected voter
from the population. If we call heads a voter who is in favor of the policy, then
tails is a voter who is not in favor of the policy. P(heads) = 0.5. That is, the
probability of finding a voter in favor of the policy is 0.5. Flipping 500 coins
represents polling 500 randomly selected voters. Recording the number of heads
represents recording the number of voters in favor of the policy.

Open the Political Poll Applet by going to the Student Activity Applets linked here and selecting
"Political Poll". Simulate obtaining a simple random sample of 500 voters assuming that
, exactly one time by clicking 1 run. In this simulation, we are flipping 500 coins
where each coin represents a voter. The probability of obtaining a head (a voter in favor of the
policy) is 0.5.
2. How many heads did you obtain? (Click on the "1" under Runs to see the number of heads.)
That is, how many registered voters are in favor of the policy? Answers will vary.
3. What is the sample proportion of voters in favor of the policy? Answers will vary.
Simulate obtaining a second simple random sample of 500 voters, assuming that
exactly one time by clicking 1 run.

4. In this sample, how many registered voters are in favor of the policy? (Click on the "2" under
Runs to determine the number of heads.) Answers will vary.
5. What is the sample proportion of voters in favor of the policy? Answers will vary.
6. The sample proportion obtained in #5 is likely different from the sample proportion obtained
in #3. Why? The sample proportions are likely different due to variability in sampling.
When we obtain different random samples from the population, we obtain different
individuals in the sample. This leads to a different estimate of the population proportion.
This variability does not occur because something has changed in the underlying
population. It only changes due to the fact we surveyed different individuals.

Suppose that the polling firm actually conducts a survey of 500 registered voters and finds that
260 are in favor of the policy. Then the sample proportion is

Do you believe that this sample evidence suggests that the true percentage of registered voters in
favor of the policy is greater than 0.5? Or, is it reasonable (that is, not all that unlikely) to obtain
a sample of 260 voters in favor of the policy even though the population proportion of voters in
favor of the policy is 0.5?
To help answer those questions, simulate conducting a survey of 500 registered voters many
times and determine the proportion of times you observe 260 or more in favor of the policy. To
do this, Reset the applet. Click 1000 runs to simulate obtaining a simple random sample of
500 registered voters 1000 different times and recording the number of individuals in favor of
the policy (assuming that the population proportion is 0.5).
In the cell "# of heads," be sure the drop-down menu is set to >=. In the cell to the right of the
drop-down menu, type 260 and press Enter.

7. Look in the Count column. How many of the1000 different surveys resulted in 260 or more
voters in favor of the policy? Answers will vary.
8. What proportion of the 1000 different simulations results in a sample proportion of 0.52 or
higher even though the population proportion is 0.5? Answers will vary.
9. Why did we have the applet count the simulations that resulted in >= ( ) 260?
10. Do you consider this convincing evidence that the proportion of voters in favor of the policy
is greater than 0.5? Why or why not?
11. What is the shape of the distribution of sample proportions? What is the center? Explain why
the shape and center are reasonable. The distribution of the sample proportion is bell-shaped
with the center at 250.

What if the polling firm conducts a survey of 500 registered voters and finds that 270 are in favor
of the policy so that
? Do you believe that this sample evidence suggests that
the true proportion of registered voters in favor of the policy is greater than 0.5?
Reset the applet. Click "1000 runs" to simulate obtaining a simple random sample of 500
registered voters 1000 different times and record the number of individuals in favor of the policy
(assuming that the population proportion is 0.5). In the cell # of heads, be sure the drop-down
menu is set to >=. In the cell to the right of the drop-down menu, type 270 and press Enter. Look
in the Count column.
12. How many of the 1000 different simulations resulted in 270 or more voters in favor of the
policy? Answers will vary.
13. What proportion of surveys results in a sample proportion of 0.54 or higher even though the
population proportion is 0.5? Answers will vary.
14. Do you consider this convincing evidence that the proportion of voters in favor of the policy
is greater than 0.5? Why or why not?

What if the polling firm conducts a survey of 500 registered voters and finds that 280 are in favor
of the policy so that
? Do you believe that this sample evidence suggests that
the true proportion of registered voters in favor of the policy is greater than 0.5?
Reset the applet. Click 1000 runs to simulate obtaining a simple random sample of 500
registered voters 1000 different times and record the number of individuals in favor of the policy

(assuming that the population proportion is 0.5). In the cell # of heads, be sure the drop-down
menu is set to >=. In the cell to the right of the drop-down menu, type 280 and press Enter. Look
in the Count column.
15. How many of the 1000 different surveys resulted in 280 or more voters in favor of the
policy? Answers will vary.
16. What proportion of surveys results in a sample proportion of 0.56 or higher even though the
population proportion is 0.5? Answers will vary.
17. Do you consider this convincing evidence that the proportion of voters in favor of the policy
is greater than 0.5? Why or why not?

Note: The proportion of simulations that resulted in a sample proportion as extreme, or more
extreme, than 0.52, 0.54, or 0.56 (from our simulations) is called the P-value.
18. Describe the sampling distribution of p under the assumption the statement in the null
hypothesis is true. To do this, describe the shape of the sampling distribution, the value of p ,
and the value of p . It is approximately normal with a mean of 0.5 and a standard

deviation of 0.0224.
19. Using this sampling distribution, compute P( p 0.52) assuming H 0 : p 0.5 is true.
Compare this result to the results from the first large simulation. P( p 0.52) 0.1860
20. Repeat this for P( p 0.54) , comparing to the second large simulation. 0.0371
21. Repeat for P( p 0.56) , comparing to the third large simulation. 0.0037

Finally, conclude that either simulation or a normal model (when the requirements are satisfied)
may be used to approximate P-values for hypotheses involving a population proportion.