Professional Documents
Culture Documents
December 2015
An aging cycle
Bradley Rogoff, CFA
+1 212 412 7921
bradley.rogoff@barclays.com
BCI, US
PLEASE REFER TO THE LAST PAGE FOR ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
CONTENTS
Overview
Credit Market Outlook: An aging cycle ...................................................................................... 3
We think spreads will tighten modestly in most markets, but do not expect a full-fledged rally
as macro risks remain and an additional liquidity premium creates a floor under spreads. From
a global perspective, the US is more advanced in the credit cycle than Europe, but we do not
expect the broader business cycle to turn in 2016. For all regions, we expect the focus on
liquidity to remain, as turnover ratios are well below pre-crisis levels and the bid-ask spread is
much wider.
US Credit Strategy
High Grade Strategy: Skating on thinner ice ........................................................................... 18
We expect excess returns of 250-300bp and total returns of 2.25-2.75% in 2016. Returns
should be supported by spreads starting at a relatively wide point because of elevated
supply and muted demand. While some early warning signs of an economic-cycle sell-off
have emerged, we think a recession remains too far off to move credit unless consumer
spending starts to contract.
High Yield Strategy: Dont cry over spilled oil ......................................................................... 40
The high yield market will likely face some losses from defaults mainly emanating from the
commodities sectors. Away from commodities, the market should perform well and has
sufficient cushion to absorb a significant fraction of the expected backup in rates. The
combination should produce mid-single-digit returns for the year.
Leveraged Loans and CLOs: Poised for performance ............................................................ 57
Loans enter 2016 with unusual price upside potential and will likely perform strongly. We
expect modest price appreciation of $1-2, along with nearly 5% returns from carry, which
would outweigh an anticipated increase in the default rate. We forecast 5.0-6.0% of total
returns and 4.0-5.0% of excess returns in 2016.
Municipal Credit: No pain, no gain ............................................................................................ 68
Higher Treasury rates, rich valuations and headline risks are set to make 2016 a lackluster
year for the municipal market. For tax-exempts, we expect somewhat higher ratios and
credit spreads and for taxable munis, slightly tighter spreads.
4 December 2015
OVERVIEW
An aging cycle
Bradley Rogoff, CFA
+1 212 412 7921
bradley.rogoff@barclays.com
BCI, US
We think spreads will tighten modestly in most markets, but do not expect a fullfledged rally as macro risks remain and an additional liquidity premium creates a
floor under spreads.
Subordinated financials should post the best returns, as the financial sector has become
lower beta and there is room for compression versus senior bonds. US high yield should
still post mid-single-digit returns despite a drag from energy defaults. European high
yield is likely to end its string of outperformance as the ratio of high yield to investment
grade spreads normalizes in Europe. High yield munis appear overvalued even excluding
a potential Puerto Rico restructuring, which could add further stress.
Emerging market corporate total returns are forecast to be -1.50% in LatAm and
EEMEA, as fundamentals have weakened because of the commodity sell-off. We have
concerns about technicals as well, including elevated supply and softer institutional
and retail demand. Asia has less commodity exposure and there have been better
technicals from China demand. This should result in low single digits positive returns.
The US is more advanced in the credit cycle than Europe, but we do not expect the
broader business cycle to turn in 2016. Instead, we expect a default cycle to
materialize related to commodity credits, which should lead to elevated default rates
in emerging markets (6.5-7.0%) and the US (5.0-5.5%). Europe should remain
relatively insulated, with defaults likely to remain at about 2%.
We expect the focus on liquidity to persist, as turnover ratios are well below precrisis levels and the bid-ask spread is much wider. The increased use of CDX and
iTraxx indices by long-only investors to manage liquidity has been a major
contributor to the negative basis across credit markets.
Key theme(s)
Developed markets
US IG
Spreads are at a relatively wide starting point because of elevated supply and muted demand. The
imbalance should moderate, and spreads should tighten, if we see rising rates and solid economic
growth. Some early warning signs of an economic-cycle sell-off have emerged, but we think a
recession remains too far off to move credit unless consumer spending starts to contract.
250-300
225-275
EUR IG
European IG credit has become a derivative of EGB yields and US credit spreads. In the absence of a
material improvement in risk sentiment, or a re-ignition of the Q technical, the market is likely to
struggle for direction. We see potential for alpha generation in sector selection, led by financials.
150-200
(50)-0
GBP IG
Sterling credit outperformed in 2015, reflecting valuations that were cheap at the start of the year.
We expect outperformance to continue in 2016, as the market remains one of the few areas in
credit where supply and demand appear to be, broadly, in balance.
200-250
(350)-(300)
US Bank
Preferreds
We expect US bank preferreds to generate attractive total returns in 2016, outperforming HY debt,
with strong fundamentals remaining supportive of moving down the capital structure. Rates risk
should be manageable as tightening in spreads should be sufficient to absorb the increase in riskfree yields. The technical backdrop is likely to improve as well with the pace of supply slowing.
600-700
550-650
European
We think that AT1 CoCos are primed for a continuation of strong performance from 2015 with
Bank CoCos spreads looking still elevated in light of the benign macro outlook for Europe, supportive bank
credit fundamentals and manageable supply.
US
Municipals
Higher Treasury rates, rich valuations and headline risks will likely make 2016 a lackluster year for
the municipal market. We expect a relatively difficult start to the year, especially if the Fed is more
aggressive; municipal issuance might once again be front-loaded, and higher rates could cause
fund outflows. For tax-exempts, we forecast somewhat higher ratios and credit spreads and
project returns to be close to zero. In our view, the muni market should stabilize by H2 16.
50-100
(100)-(50)
US HY
The high yield market will likely face some losses from defaults mainly emanating from the
commodities sectors. Away from commodities, the market should perform well and has sufficient
cushion to absorb a significant fraction of the expected backup in rates. The combination should
produce mid-single-digit returns for the year.
450-550
400-500
EUR HY
We expect lower returns compared to previous years with bifurcated trends affecting the market:
Tailwinds from the ECB should be offset by headwinds coming from the Fed rate hiking cycle.
Those two drivers will be overlaid by uninspiring technical trends. Better quality bonds (BBs) should
outperform in absolute terms, as lower quality will likely suffer more from the slight index widening
that we foresee.
300-400
100-200
US Lev Loan Loans enter 2016 with unusual price upside potential and will likely perform strongly. We expect
modest price appreciation along with nearly 5% returns from carry, which will outweigh an
anticipated increase in the default rate. Potential headwinds include a slower-than-expected CLO
primary market and continued retail outflows.
400-500
500-600
EUR Lev
Loan
250-350
250-350
We expect loan prices to decline modestly, given the stretched relative value, as well as the potential
for a negative feedback loop driven by CLO market indigestion. A large sell-off is unlikely, in our
view, given stable fundamentals, a low default rate, low net supply and a sticky investor base.
Five forces will cause this segment to be the worst-performing global credit asset class in 2016:
sovereigns staying under pressure, low commodity prices causing fundamental deterioration, rising
refinancing needs amid tightening lending standards and outflows, lower-than-historical
fundamental buffers, and unattractive starting valuations.
(25)-25
(175)-(125)
Asia IG
Tightening will be driven by the China high grade component where strong in-region demand and
lower supply will offset macro concerns. ASEAN high grade is likely to come under pressure as
domestic conditions weigh on credit fundamentals and technicals deteriorate due to higher supply.
175-225
75-125
Asia HY
In high yield ex China property, we see default rates rising and fundamentals weakening (higher
leverage, weak financing conditions, softer demand). For non-China, slowing economic growth will
weigh on margins and revenues; tighter financing conditions will put pressure on funding; and
leverage is likely to rise. The commodity-linked sectors are likely to experience the most weakness.
350-400
275-325
4 December 2015
4 December 2015
FIGURE 3
US high yield OAS versus matched equity portfolio, year-to-date
SPX
Equity
2150
260
250
2100
240
2050
230
220
2000
210
1950
200
190
1900
180
1850
170
400
450
500
550
600
4 December 2015
650
700
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
FIGURE 4
US and Europe high yield/investment grade ratios
FIGURE 5
Emerging market/US BBB and BB ratios
6.0
2.4
5.5
2.2
5.0
2.0
4.5
1.8
4.0
1.6
3.5
1.4
3.0
1.2
2.5
1.0
2.0
2010
2011
2012
US HY/IG Ratio
2013
2014
0.8
2010
2015
2011
2012
2013
BBB Ratio
EU HY/IG Ratio
2014
BB Ratio
2015
widespread corporate and sovereign downgrades. Aside from the direct effect of lower
commodity prices, emerging markets are suffering from numerous other headwinds,
including tightening credit conditions and ongoing political/geopolitical risk. EM corporate
maturities rise substantially in 2017, and refinancing these maturities is likely to be more
expensive because demand from both retail and institutional investors is waning. Despite all
this, EM valuations are close to their historical average versus developed markets (Figure 5).
We believe the difficult backdrop justifies wider relative (and absolute) spread levels.
In contrast to the negative technicals pervasive in many credit markets, US high grade
municipals have benefited from solid fund flows and improving credit quality. The ratio of
munis to Treasuries is now on the tighter end of fair value, and we expect some weakness in
this relationship in 2016. Total returns are likely to be slightly negative, as higher Treasury
yields are the dominant factor in our forecast. Despite the negative return number, we
generally expect high grade munis to be stable in 2016. The same cannot be said for high
yield munis, where we expect ample news flow with regard to Puerto Rico. Even excluding
Puerto Rico, high yield municipals look rich versus US high yield corporates.
FIGURE 6
2016 excess return forecasts versus current spreads
2016 ExcRet f/c (bp)
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
US IG
200
EUR IG
100
US HY
US Lev Loan
Asia HY
EU Lev Loan
EUR HY
GBP IG
Asia IG
LatAm + EEMEA
0
0
100
200
300
400
Spread on Nov 27, 2015 (bp)
500
600
700
Note: Current spread is OAS for all markets except for US Bank Preferreds (G-spread), USD and EUR AT1 CoCos (Zspread), and US and EU Lev Loans (3y discount margin). Source: Barclays Research
4 December 2015
FIGURE 8
Credit cycle and real cycle are linked
Recession Indicator
20%
15%
10%
15%
12%
9%
6%
5%
0%
'71 '75 '79 '83 '87 '91 '95 '99 '03 '07 '11 '15
Time between
119 mo. 72 mo. >77 mo.
91 mo.
57 mo.
recessions:
3%
0%
'90
'95
'00
'05
'10
'15
4 December 2015
FIGURE 10
When lending tightens, credit weakens
% Lenders Tightening Standards 12 Months Ago
30%
Tightening Policy
100%
20%
Loosening Policy
80%
12%
10%
60%
10%
0%
40%
8%
20%
6%
0%
4%
-20%
2%
-10%
-20%
-30%
0
20
40
60
4 December 2015
80
100
-40%
14%
0%
'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16
FIGURE 11
Heavy M&A activity tends to weigh on credit
Y =Subsequent 12 Months Excess Return
50%
FIGURE 12
Comparative default forecasts
2016 Default Rate Estimate
Current
% of Issuers
% of Par
US HY
5% - 5.5%
4.5% - 5%
Euro HY
1.75% - 2.75%
1.5% - 2.5%
EM
6.5-7%
3.5%-4%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
US Corporate
US HY
-40%
-50%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%12%14%16%18%20%22%24%
X = Last 12 Months M&A Volume as % of S&P 500 Market Cap
Source: Barclays Research
commodity producers. In our base case, the overall default rate for emerging markets should
be 6.5-7.0% by number of issuers, but only 3.5-4.0% by par amount. Our downside scenario,
which takes a more pessimistic view of emerging market economies, foreign exchange, and
commodity markets, could see defaults spike as high as the mid-teens.
Not surprisingly, the US is next in terms of our base case for default rates in 2016. We
believe the increase in commodity-related high yield corporate issuers in the past decade
could lead to two credit cycles in the next few years. The first will be in 2016, when we
estimate that defaults are likely rise to 5%, in line with the long-term average and up from
the current level of 3.4% by issuer count and 2.5% by par weighting. In the past 10 years,
energy has increased from 4% to 15% of the high yield market by par, and metals & mining
has similarly tripled to 6% from 2%. Our default forecast assumes that 80% of 2016
defaults come from these sectors. The second spike in the near future is likely to occur
whenever the business cycle reaches its trough. For the business cycle-related increase, we
do not expect the spike to be nearly as high as in 2009, when we reached a peak of 15%.
One of the main reasons for this more benign view is that we are starting from a much
better spot in terms of fundamentals. High yield corporate leverage including the
embattled commodities sectors remains well below peaks, and interest coverage is still
FIGURE 13
US High Yield Index weighted average leverage ratio
8.5
6.0
7.9
8.0
7.1
7.2
7.0
7.0
5.4
5.5
5.7
5.4
5.5
5.5
4.0
3.5
4.3
4.1
4.1
3.6
3.4
3.0
5.2
4.9
4.7 4.8
4.7
4.5
5.8
6.0
5.0
6.3
6.5
5.0
5.0
4.7
4.1
3.8
3.3
3.0
5.0
4 December 2015
3Q15
2Q15
2014
1Q15
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2000
3Q15
2Q15
2014
1Q15
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
1.5
2002
3.5
2001
2.0
2000
4.0
2002
2.5
4.5
2001
7.5
FIGURE 14
US High Yield Index weighted average interest coverage ratio
10
'92
'94
'96
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
'08
'10
'12
'14
11
FIGURE 16
Investment grade volume and turnover
FIGURE 17
High yield volume and turnover
Amount Outstanding
Volume
Annualized Turnover (right)
$5.0 tr
1.2x
1.1x
$4.0 tr
Amount Outstanding
Volume
Turnover (right)
$2.0 tr
$1.5 tr
0.9x
$2.0 tr
0.8x
$1.0 tr
1.6x
$1.0 tr
1.4x
1.2x
$0.5 tr
1.0x
0.7x
$0.0 tr
0.6x
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
2.0x
1.8x
1.0x
$3.0 tr
2.2x
0.8x
$0.0 tr
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Source: Barclays Research
investment grade is not surprising considering that liquidity risk is a more important
component of investment grade spreads, whereas high yield tends to be driven by default
risk. In the past, we have estimated the additional spread premium from lower liquidity to
be about 25bp for US investment grade (Taking Apart the Spread Floor).
The decline in turnover and widening of bid-offer spreads are exacerbated by the increased
need for daily liquidity from mutual funds. Since 2010, inflows to credit mutual funds have
been $843bn in the US and 55bn in Europe. The well-documented decline in dealer
balance sheets has obviously hurt with respect to the mismatch of liquidity needs. While we
believe the Fed dealer inventory data understate true dealer balance sheets because of
issues with the manner in which foreign dealers report holdings and the difference in the
way gross versus net balance sheet is managed today compared with pre-crisis, the
mismatch is still significant and has only been increasing.
The technical risks in credit markets have shifted from the extreme price shock of 2008 due to
overleveraged banks to gap risk that could occur from outsized mutual fund outflows. We
attempted to calculate the potential first-mover advantage for investors that get out early in a
large outflow period for mutual funds in Mutual Funds and Credit Liquidity: Nobody Move. We
believe that in an extreme case for high yield funds, the effect could be up to 1.75pts. While
certainly not overwhelming, this can provide an incentive for investors to act early.
Our analysis assumes a portfolio similar to the market and no cash balances. In reality,
managers that provide their investors with significant liquidity have altered the way they
manage their portfolios and, at least in the US, may be forced to do so to an even greater
extent in the future. Mutual funds have increased cash balances and made greater use of
portfolio products such as CDX, ETFs, and TRS (Picking Portfolio Products Apart). They are
also less likely to own the least liquid portion of the market, which contributes in outsized
fashion to the 1.75pts mentioned above. We believe many of these tactics are effective in
decreasing the potential gap risk for the market, but they are not costless. Cash drag is one
obvious reason, as is the likely lower yields for the portfolio from excluding smaller names
that typically have embedded liquidity premiums.
The new SEC proposed rule on open-end mutual fund liquidity is likely to reinforce some of
this behavior by fund managers, but could also help solve the problem of first movers
attempting to arbitrage the NAV. The rule is in a comment period now and at the very least
will force US mutual fund managers to spend more time evaluating the liquidity of the
securities they own through a variety of mechanisms including bid-offer, depth of market,
4 December 2015
12
FIGURE 18
The off-the-run spread premium has increased from very
low levels
FIGURE 19
High Yield Index price versus Very Liquid High Yield Index
Difference: VLI - HY (right)
US HY Price (left)
US HY VLI 800mn+ Price (left)
OAS (bp)
70
60
$110
50
$4
$3
40
$105
30
$2
20
10
$100
$1
$0
-10
$95
-20
-$1
-30
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
4 December 2015
$90
-$2
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
13
FIGURE 20
Client longs in CDX IG are substantial
FIGURE 21
as is the case with Main
Spread
105
100
-10
95
90
-20
85
-30
80
-40
-50
-60
Jan-13
Jun-13
Dec-13
All series
130
120
110
-5
100
-10
75
-15
90
70
-20
80
65
-25
70
60
-30
60
55
Dec-14 May-15 Nov-15
Jun-14
Spread
CDX.IG
-35
Jan-13
Jun-13
Dec-13 Jun-14
All series
50
Dec-14 May-15 Nov-15
Main
The negative basis right now is near the largest we have witnessed at a time when there
was not a funding crisis. Figure 22 shows the deeply negative basis for US investment grade,
but it is similarly negative for both US and European high yield. In European investment
grade, where the basis had been persistently positive, the basis recently touched zero
(Figure 23). When we examine the factors that affect the single-name basis, we struggle to
find a good reason CDS should trade so much tighter than cash bonds:
Liquidity preference: CDS liquidity is declining, and the synthetic CDO bid that produced
greater protection selling and liquidity pre-crisis has gone away completely. Despite the
overall lower liquidity, many index credits still have higher CDS trading volumes than
cash, and investors may be willing to pay a premium (receive a lower spread) to be able
to transact more easily. If this is a factor in the negative basis, we believe it will diminish,
as we do not expect CDS liquidity to improve in 2016.
Convexity: With CDS being an effective bullet bond and some bonds (high yield in
particular) being callable, investors may be willing to pay a premium to own a product
with a better convexity profile. However, with rates off their lows and the US High Yield
FIGURE 22
CDS-cash basis has widened significantly in US investment
grade
FIGURE 23
In Europe, the Main basis has gone from positive to flat
180
-30
95
160
-40
85
-50
75
140
120
-60
35
30
25
20
65
15
55
100
-70
80
-80
60
Nov-14
Feb-15
4 December 2015
May-15
IGCDX
Aug-15
-90
Nov-15
Cash equivalent
10
45
35
25
Nov-14
Feb-15
May-15
Aug-15
Main
-5
Nov-15
Cash equivalent
14
Steepness of curves: CDS curves tend to be steeper than corresponding cash curves
(particularly in high yield just inside the 5y point), meaning that on a longer time
horizon, even though CDS is tighter than cash, the expected P&L from roll and carry may
still be better (or comparable) in CDS. This could be a factor for those who are entering
CDS trades with a longer time horizon, but is less important for short-term traders.
Leverage: Selling protection is generally more efficient from a capital standpoint than
leveraging cash bonds. This was certainly a factor in pushing the basis lower pre-crisis.
We do not believe it is as big a factor today, as the use of leverage is much lower than in
the past. In fact, with the ability to finance bond shorts in the repo market diminished as
well by shrinking bank balance sheets, the desire to buy protection in a volatile market
should theoretically be higher. We see this in stressed credits. Looking at a sample set of
11 credits that trade in points upfront in CDX HY, the average basis package is $99.4
(Figure 24).
Without a clear answer at the single-name level for what is pushing the basis more negative,
we look to the CDX/iTraxx indices for a reason. We believe that the increased use of derivative
indices as a consistent long for asset managers could be part of the answer. If we look back to
the mid-2000s, the difference between the level of the index and its underlying CDS
(commonly referred to as skew) was typically flat to positive. While every index trade must
have a buyer and seller, in the pre-crisis period, the driving force was typically someone trying
to hedge credit risk as opposed to those seeking a cash substitute for long credit risk.
As the primary use has shifted, the skew has moved significantly negative (Figure 25). Since
there are accounts that arbitrage the skew, when the index trades significantly rich to
single-name CDS, they are buying protection on the index and selling protection on singlename CDS. This should be driving the single-name CDS tighter and can lead to its
disconnecting from cash, as we have witnessed recently. This is complicated by the lack of
accounts that are focused on buying basis packages, as funding costs have become more
expensive. We note that there are more basis accounts in Europe, and the basis is not nearly
as negative as in the US. While the relationship between skew and the CDS-cash basis is by
no means perfect, we think that activity at an index level is a big factor in the difference in
the basis today versus the mid-2000s.
FIGURE 24
Points upfront basis for stressed credits still makes sense
Ticker
Coupon
Maturity
Price
($)
Matched
CDS (Pt)
Package
BTU
JNY
TOY
AKS
AMD
CHK
IHRT
PKD
X
CRC
HOV
6.500
8.250
7.375
7.625
7.750
6.875
10.000
7.500
6.875
5.500
8.000
9/15/20
3/15/19
10/15/18
5/15/20
8/1/20
11/15/20
1/15/18
8/1/20
4/1/21
9/15/21
11/1/19
17.00
43.00
65.00
40.00
69.50
48.00
42.50
79.75
50.00
61.00
64.00
84.00
59.00
33.50
55.50
26.00
48.00
64.00
17.50
48.50
40.00
38.00
101.00
102.00
98.50
95.50
95.50
96.00
106.50
97.25
98.50
101.00
102.00
Average:
Note: Levels as of November 27. Source: Barclays Research
4 December 2015
99.43
FIGURE 25
Skew is negative in CDX IG, in contrast to the pre-crisis
period
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
2004 2005 2006 2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Pre-crisis
Post-crisis
Pre-crisis average
Post-crisis average
Source: Barclays Research
15
CDX.HY
4Q 14
Main
1Q 15
2Q 15
Crossover
3Q 15
4 December 2015
16
US Strategy
4 December 2015
17
US INVESTMENT GRADE
We forecast that the US Corporate Cash Index will post an excess return of 250-300bp
and a total return of 2.25-2.75% (based on our rates teams forecasts) in 2016. Returns
should be supported by spreads starting at a relatively wide point because of
elevated supply and muted demand in the past year. Assuming we see rising rates
and solid economic growth, we expect the imbalance to moderate and for spreads to
tighten. Although our base case is optimistic, it depends on economic growth
continuing. Some early warning signs of an economic-cycle selloff have emerged,
but we think the possibility of a recession remains too far off to move credit unless
consumer spending starts to contract.
CDX outperformed cash for the third year in a row, but this is unlikely to repeat in
2016 due to the relative attractiveness of cash (as measured by the CDS-cash basis),
the already-sizable client long base in CDX, and the skewed distribution of underlying
CDX constituents.
Spreads are elevated, with valuations relatively attractive in the intermediate and
long end of the credit curve. This leaves the curve historically steep and creates the
potential for flattening with either rising rates or a weakening economy. We expect a
moderate flattening in the 10s30s (~10bp) and 5s10s (~5bp) curves.
4 December 2015
18
FIGURE 2
Spreads starting in the current range are more likely to
tighten than widen
Likelihood of
1y Fwd. Spread Range
1y Exc. Ret.
Current Spread
30%
35%
20%
30%
10%
25%
30%
23%
20%
0%
15%
-10%
17%
17%
12%
10%
R = 33%
5%
-20%
1%
0%
50 - 100 100 - 140 140 - 170 170 - 200 200 - 250
-30%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
250+
Job growth remains robust, with jobless claims remaining at multi-decade lows and
unemployment shrinking.
Substantial growth in the supply of investment grade corporate bonds, most of which
was driven by issuance to fund large M&A transactions. We expect M&A volume growth
to flatten in 2016 because higher average volatility (caused by tightening Fed policy and
continuing risks from China and emerging markets) limits the potential for more
growth. For more details, please see the section on supply below.
4 December 2015
19
Low oil prices and capital outflows from China and emerging markets acted as a sort of
reverse quantitative easing that reduced demand for fixed income securities, which
pressured demand for corporates (Barclays Tuesday Credit Call: Ebb Tide for Oil Dollars).
With oil prices more stable (albeit at low levels) and capital outflows already established,
we think there is limited further downside from this technical factor.
Insurance companies, the largest single buyer of corporate bonds, did not add any net
holdings in the first half of 2015 because of low all-in yields. As yields rise, we expect
insurance buying to pick up.
Leverage has risen, but remains quite average by historical standards. Whatever the trend
for leverage, we do not believe that, in aggregate, it has much of a connection to returns:
good returns have happened in times with bad leverage, and vice versa (for more details,
see the section on fundamentals).
With all this said, however, we think the upside is modest because lower liquidity and
compositional changes have raised the spread floor. Compared with 2006 (when spreads
averaged 85-90bp), the duration of the index has increased and average quality has
declined; these changes have increased the floor by about 20bp. Furthermore, we estimate
that the liquidity premium is worth a further 20-25bp. To compute this, we compared the
spread change between 2006 and 2015 of two bond buckets that are identical across
rating/duration, but differ in liquidity. The first includes very liquid, recently issued securities
while the second has older, vintage securities. While the turnover of the first bucket has
declined post-crisis, it is still liquid enough that we assume the increase in liquidity premium
should be minimal. Meanwhile, the liquidity premium for off-the-run bonds has increased
meaningfully, which should be captured by the second bucket. The difference in spread
moves of the two buckets can be used as a proxy for an increase in the liquidity premium,
which we estimate at 20-25bp. This leaves our estimate for the current floor at 130bp (from
85bp). Although our base case calls for tightening, we think the amount of tightening is
capped (even in the best case scenario) at about 20-25bp due to these factors.
While tightening remains our base case, for the first time since the 2009 crisis, there are
clear indications that spreads might widen significantly.
The early indicators that we think are most predictive of credit on a two-year horizon have
mostly flipped over to signal widening. M&A has exceeded prior peaks, banks are tightening
their lending standards, and the Fed is poised to start tightening rates. Taken together, these
are the three conditions that have most accurately predicted widening in the past few cycles.
FIGURE 3
The combination of Fed policy tightening and decelerating job growth has been predictive of a spread widening event
Baa Corp. Spreads (bp)
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Credit Signal
Jul-14
Nov-12
Jul-09
Mar-11
Nov-07
Jul-04
Mar-06
Nov-02
Jul-99
Mar-01
Nov-97
Jul-94
Mar-96
Nov-92
Jul-89
Mar-91
Nov-87
Jul-84
Mar-86
Nov-82
Jul-79
Mar-81
Nov-77
Jul-74
Mar-76
Nov-72
Jul-69
Recessions
Mar-71
Nov-67
Jul-64
Mar-66
Nov-62
Jul-59
Mar-61
Nov-57
Jul-54
0
Mar-56
Credit Spreads
4 December 2015
20
Technology start-ups and venture investments: the Wall Street Journal estimates that
there are 132 private, venture-backed technology companies worth more than $1bn1; that
is almost 60% of the number of $1bn+ public technology companies in the Russell 3000
index. That market has experienced some weakness, with investors marking down the
value of startup stakes.2
We are cautious about the potential for some as-yet unrecognized imbalance to be the
key cause of risk this cycle. Given how low interest rates have been and for how long, it
is possible that some parts of the economy have become dependent on low rates,
elevating the potential of a disruption once rates start to rise.
The signals we see in the market may or may not be connected to the economic
processes that have caused credit to sell off in the past. However, the signals are not
important; the underlying process is:
If we are seeing the early signals of deceleration in the economy, there is an elevated
likelihood of a recession starting within two years. If that occurs, we would expect
widening of up to 100bp over the next 12-24 months. But in that case, our early
warning signals would likely continue to suggest weakness, and further economic data
would turn down. In particular, we think consumer spending will start to decline prior to
any economically driven weakness in credit spreads, giving us a good signal to monitor.
While aggregate total leverage has risen off its lows, net leverage (which more
accurately captures credit risk, in our view) remains in the middle of the historical range
and has generally remained within a stable 1.5-1.8x range (Figure 4).
1
2
4 December 2015
The Billion Dollar Startup Club, Wall Street Journal, February 18, 2015.
Beyond Fidelity: Even More Mutual Fund Markdowns of Tech Startups, Fortune, November 17, 2013.
21
FIGURE 4
Gross and net leverage have ticked up, but net leverage
remains in the middle of the historical range
3.0x
Index-Weighted Gross Debt/EBITDA
Index-Weighted Net Debt/EBITDA
2.8x
2.6x
FIGURE 5
The ability to cover near-term maturities with cash on hand
has increased along with the average maturity of debt
Cash % of
Maturies <=5y
140%
120%
2.4x
100%
2.2x
80%
2.0x
60%
1.8x
40%
1.6x
20%
0%
1.4x
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Note: Net debt/one-year forward EBITDA. Calculated by taking a weighted average
of issuer-level leverage (using index market value at the end of each year).
Excluding financials and autos. Source: FactSet, Barclays Research
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Note: Index weighted average (excluding financials and autos).
Source: FactSet, Bloomberg, Barclays Research
Other measures of credit quality look better than their historical averages, as companies
have increased the average maturity of their debt and their capacity to pay near-term
maturities with cash on hand (Figure 5).
Leverage migration
That said, independent of what is happening in the macro environment, leverage could
affect spreads as a result of migration within the index. If issuers migrate to higher leverage
and, therefore, higher spreads because of idiosyncratic factors, returns could be affected
even if the macro risk premium does not change.
4 December 2015
22
FIGURE 6
The US Corporate Index has produced good and bad returns
in both high and low leverage states
1y Fwd Ex. Ret
Net Leverage
Leverage (RHS)
12m Fwd. Return
30%
25%
2.5x
20%
FIGURE 7
US non-financial corporate index returns appear to be
unrelated to the aggregate leverage of index issuers
Median 1y
Ex. Ret.
2.0%
1.5%
15%
2.0x
10%
1.0%
5%
0%
1.5x
-5%
0.5%
0.0%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-0.5%
Low Leverage
'15
'14
'13
'12
'11
'10
'09
'08
'07
'06
'05
'04
'03
'02
'01
'00
1.0x
Moderate Leverage
High Leverage
Note: Leverage states are defined by tercile. Source: FactSet, Barclays Research
We find, however, that an increase in leverage migration, absent a weakening broader macro
environment, is likely to have a limited effect on spreads. Figure 8 shows the net leverage and
average spread of industrial credit (ex-energy) in the US Credit Index. While credits with
higher leverage trade wider on average, the spread compensation does not increase
uniformly. Instead, it appears there are two broad buckets: corporates with a net leverage of
less than 1.75x (about 50% of the index by market value) that trade at 120-130bp on
average; and credits leveraged more than 1.75x that have an average spread of about 165bp.
The implication of the spread/leverage distribution in Figure 8 is that as long as a ticker
stays in one of the buckets (admittedly somewhat arbitrarily defined), the spread effect of a
leverage change is minimal. Only the credits that migrate from the low leverage bucket to
the high leverage one would see a meaningful increase in spread. This mutes the effect of
even widespread leverage deterioration: we estimate that a 10% increase in leverage across
all credits (corresponding to 0.2x increase in net leverage overall) would lead to spread
widening of only 1-2bp, corresponding to about 10-15bp of loss in excess return terms.
FIGURE 8
Net leverage and credit spreads
10x
Net Leverage
195
8x
175
6x
155
4x
135
2x
115
0x
95
-2x
-4x
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
75
100%
4 December 2015
23
8%
10%
12%
2%
16bp
20bp
24bp
5%
40bp
50bp
60bp
10%
80bp
100bp
120bp
Note: Nine potential cases, by varying the potential amount of debt downgraded and potential average fallen angel
underperformance in the event of downgrade. Source: Barclays Research
Under a more stressed scenario of a 5% downgrade rate with a -12% total return rate
assumption, the potential loss is about 60bp. While that would significantly eat into the
155bp spread carry of the index, such a scenario is highly unlikely. In the past 15 years,
fallen angel volumes have exceeded 5% only twice. Furthermore, while our fallen angel
outlook is for downgrades to be elevated relative to past years, we are projecting only about
1.5% of the index to fall to high yield (Figure 10).
Volume
As % of index
10%
9%
140
8%
120
7%
100
6%
80
5%
60
4%
3%
40
2%
20
1%
0%
'00
'01
'02
'03
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15 '16E
4 December 2015
24
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
4 December 2015
25
FIGURE 12
Current sector spread and fundamental analyst ratings
OAS (bp)
Underweight
Market Weight
Overweight
Unrated
400
350
US Corporate Index
300
250
200
150
100
0
50
year in which we see potential for tightening. Figure 12 shows the relative sector spreads.
4 December 2015
26
Underweight
Overweight
Market Weight
Unrated
10%
5%
0%
-5%
Midstream
Met. & Min.
Other REITS
Lodging
Office REITS
Healthcare REITS
Packaging
Building Materials
Apartment REITS
Other Industrial
Retail REITS
Chemicals
Oil Field Services
Other Fin.
Home Const.
Healthcare
Other Utilities
Supermarkets
Automotive
Transport. Services
Con. Cyc Services
Restaurants
Cons. Products
Wireless
P&C Ins.
Independent Oil
Electric
Technology
Div. Manuf.
Aerospace/Defense
Brokerage & Asset
Const. Mach.
Food & Beverage
Railroads
Airlines
Paper
Pharmaceuticals
Health Ins.
Media Entertainment
Environmental
Cable Satellite
Retailers
Tobacco
Wirelines
Integrated Oil
Refining
Banking
Leisure
Life Ins.
-10%
Integrated oil producers are one of the tightest sectors and are priced in a way that implies
improving fundamentals. As a group these issuers are very large, very high quality companies,
but their fundamental situation shows more signs of deterioration than improvement.
Although the large projects they have invested in over the past decade will decline more
slowly than the faster runoff wells that are creating challenges for many high-yield producers,
they have also required enormous investments that are now unlikely to produce their
anticipated return on capital. As a result, oil majors remain short of the cash needed to both
fund future reserve growth and pay the dividends that equity investors expect. They do have
more cushion than many smaller companies, and energy analyst Harry Mateer does not see
them facing widespread downgrades. But their bonds offer very little compensation for the
difficult situation in the energy sector, and Mateer is maintaining an Underweight rating. As in
the metals and mining space, while the initial strains land more heavily on weaker issuers, the
longer low commodity prices persist, the pain finds its way even to the highest quality names.
Retailers are among the tightest third of sectors and trade with the implication of improving
fundamentals. Valuations that imply an improving outlook are difficult to reconcile with
persistent weakness in brick and mortar retail sales. A number of forces seem to be at play:
FIGURE 14
E-commerce continues to claim an increasing share of retail
sales growth
Share of Revenue
Growth
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Jan-11
Dec-11
AA
BBB
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
Nov-12
4 December 2015
FIGURE 15
Retail is trading near its two-year tights relative to the US
Industrial Index, across all ratings
Oct-13
Sep-14
Aug-15
E-Commerce
-70
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
27
30
25
21.4%
20
15
11.4%
11.3%
11.3%
11.1%
11.3%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
12.9%
10
5
0
2014
2015E
2016E
Note: Midstream segment includes investment grade and high yield companies; midstream estimates are consensus.
Source: Bloomberg, company reports, Barclays Research
4 December 2015
28
Financial-Industrial Basis
US IG Financials
US IG Industrials
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: Barclays Research
We expect the technical backdrop to become more challenged for financials given potential
TLAC-related issuance. In line with the FSBs rule, the Fed proposed a fully phased-in TLAC
(total loss absorbing capital) requirement of 18% of RWAs plus buffers that will result in
requirements of 21.5-23% for the US GSIBs. We estimate an aggregate shortfall of $125bn
4 December 2015
29
5y
7y
10y
30y
FIGURE 19
10s30s curve versus 30y corporate yields
10s30s OAS (bp)
50
Since 2010
Last 6mo
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
4 December 2015
0
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
Corporate 25y+ YTW (%)
6.0%
6.5%
30
FIGURE 21
7y and 10y bonds are trading at historically wide levels
OAS(bp)
100
Current
5s10s
3s10s
3s7s
80
2.0x
60
1.5x
40
1.0x
20
0.5x
0.0x
-20
2y Ratio
5y Ratio
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
outperform in a rally, given historically tight spreads, with significant downside risks in the
case of a Fed rate hike. Although extending to 10y and 30y bonds involves increasing spread
duration, we believe that it should outperform on a duration-adjusted basis.
120%
Amount Outstanding
Volume
Annualized Turnover
4.0
FIGURE 23
The off-the-run spread premium has spiked recently
110%
3.5
3.0
100%
OAS (bp)
45
40
240
35
220
30
200
25
2.5
90%
2.0
1.5
80%
1.0
70%
0.5
0.0
60%
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
4 December 2015
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
260
180
20
160
15
140
10
5
120
100
-5
2010
80
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Note: On-the-run defined as a bond issued less than one year ago.
Source: Barclays Research
31
4 December 2015
32
FIGURE 24
Our M&A model suggests decelerating growth if VIX remains at recent averages
LTM Announced
M&A Volume ($bn)
$3
$3
$2
$2
$1
$1
$0
Dec-92
Jul-95
Feb-98
Aug-00 Mar-03
Sep-05
Apr-08
Pension Funds
16-18%
16-18%
Mutual Funds
16-18%
15-17%
+1%
Banks
3-5%
3-5%
Corporate Treasuries
5-7%
4-6%
+1%
Hedge Funds
1-3%
2-4%
-1%
14-18%
13-17%
+1%
50
5.2%
45
40
5.0%
35
4.8%
30
4.6%
25
4.4%
20
4.2%
15
4.0%
10
Jul-13
Other*
5.4%
4 December 2015
Jul-15
5-7%
Sep-15
5-7%
Mar-15
P&C Insurance
May-15
-2%
Jan-15
32-36%
Nov-14
30-34%
OAS (bp)
10s30s OAS (rhs) 55
Jul-14
Life Insurance
YTW
5.6%
Sep-14
Y/Y % Chg
Mar-14
2014 Est.*
May-14
Current Est.
Jan-14
Category
Nov-13
FIGURE 26
Long-dated corporate yield versus 10s30s OAS
Sep-13
FIGURE 25
Note: On-the-run defined as a bond issued less than one year ago.
Source: Barclays Research
33
FIGURE 27
2015 investment grade fixed-rate issuance forecast ($bn)
2015
2016 gross
2016
2016 net
issuance** forecast maturities forecast
Non-fin Corp*
704
685
205
480
Financials
364
365
189
176
Non-corporates
298
290
242
48
1,366
1340
636
704
Total
FIGURE 28
Y/y change in issuance by sector
$bn
600
2015 YTD
500
400
-3%
300
-1%
200
100
-29%
0
Industrial
Note: *Includes Yankees. **2015 year-to-date issuance is annualized. All
issuance data and forecasts are debt eligible for the Barclays US Credit or US
144A indices, unless otherwise specified. Source: Barclays Research
4 December 2015
Utility
Financial
Non-Corporate
34
US non-financials
The key components of our forecast include maturities, EBITDA growth, changes in
leverage, M&A activity, and supply from first-time issuers (Figure 29). To begin, we assume
that all of 2016s maturities (~$150bn) will be refinanced. Next, we assume that companies
finance debt to match expected EBITDA growth. Consensus 2016 EBITDA growth for US
domestic non-financial corporates is 6%; to keep leverage constant, companies would
increase debt 6% ($155bn). Third, we consider leverage. We do not expect changes in
leverage to have a significant effect on 2015 supply: issuers tend to add debt when EBITDA
is expected to grow and limit issuance when EBITDA is expected to shrink (see Leverage Is
Lower, but That Doesn't Mean Much, October 24, 2014). As a result, meaningful changes in
leverage are likely to be driven by EBITDA declining if the issuers as a group experience a
strong operating year, and increasing if EBITDA is weaker than expected.
Fourth, we look at M&A trends. M&A-related issuance has been the main driver of year-todate supply growth. We think M&A volumes will remain robust in 2016: our M&A macro
forecasting model (see above) predicts M&A growth of roughly 10%. There has been
$255bn of M&A-related issuance in the past 12 months. Assuming 10% growth produces
an estimate of $285bn for M&A-related supply. Finally, we consider new entrants. We
expect $35bn of issuance from this source, driven by novel tech issuers, which should
continue to issue debt to boost shareholder returns (eg, Qualcomm this year).
Combining these factors results in a gross issuance forecast for US-domiciled non-financial
firms of $625bn (6% above this years annualized issuance) and a net issuance forecast of
$475bn (3% lower than this year). Our sector-level approach yields a forecast of $540bn.
FIGURE 29
Top-down forecast for 2015 US non-financial issuance
Source of debt issuance for 2016
Amount
($bn)
Fixed redemptions
150
FIGURE 30
EURUSD and GBPUSD 10y cross-currency basis swap (bp)
Spread (bp)
5
EUR
GBP
155
-5
-10
First-time issuers
35
-15
M&A issuance
285
-20
625
-25
475
-30
-35
-40
-45
Nov-13 Mar-14
4 December 2015
Jul-14
Nov-14 Mar-15
Jul-15
Nov-15
35
Yankee banks: We expect Yankee bank issuance of $115bn, 10% below this years
annualized amount of $129bn, driven by a sharp decline in redemptions. USDdenominated maturities for 2016 are $72bn, $23bn lower than 2015 ($95bn).
FIGURE 32
Client positioning in IGCDX
2.0%
Spread
105
1.5%
1.0%
100
-10
95
0.5%
90
-20
0.0%
-0.5%
85
-30
-1.0%
-1.5%
80
75
-40
-2.0%
70
65
-50
-2.5%
-3.0%
Jan-15
Mar-15
CDX-Cash
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
4 December 2015
Nov-15
CDX Return
-60
Jan-13
60
55
Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 May-15 Nov-15
All series
IGCDX
36
FIGURE 33
IGCDX market-intrinsic basis (skew)
FIGURE 34
Matched CDS-Cash basis (bp)
bp
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
-14
Jan-13
Jul-13
IGCDX Skew
Feb-14
Sep-14
Average
Apr-15
Nov-15
180
-30
160
-40
140
-50
120
-60
100
-70
80
-80
60
Nov-14
Jul-15
IGCDX
-90
Sep-15 Nov-15
IGCDX.Cash
One way to illustrate this is to look at client positioning in CDX (Figure 32). Net client longs
reached a new record at the end of October, surpassing $50bn of CDX across series. The
persistence of the long base has been notable, even during periods of volatility and as the
valuation gap with cash has widened. We attribute the sizable long base to a preference for
liquidity, as CDX remains the most liquid way to gain diversified investment grade exposure.
It will be important to watch how positioning changes in 2016. Meaningful reductions in
investor longs could either be a sign of growing risk aversion among credit investors, or a
reflection of the relative value of cash becoming even more compelling. That being said,
even if positioning remains stable in 2016, we think it will be difficult for CDX to outperform
cash in 2016 given the sizable difference in valuations between the two markets.
37
FIGURE 36
IGCDX S25 constituent volume comparison: 2014 versus 2015
60%
Mar 2014
- Aug
2014
Mar 2015
- Aug
2015
Basic Materials
104.5
129.4
23.8%
Cons Goods
16
116.3
91.0
-21.8%
Cons Services
29
99.3
86.7
-12.7%
Energy
12
97.9
107.2
9.5%
Financials
19
126.6
107.9
-14.8%
Healthcare
10
74.3
70.9
-4.6%
Industrials
16
75.0
62.1
-17.2%
Technology
133.8
99.7
-25.5%
Telco Services
154.3
154.7
0.2%
Utilities
60.9
51.7
-15.2%
101.4
91.1
-10.2%
50%
Sector
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
4Q 14
1Q 15
2Q 15
3Q 15
Average
Source: Bloomberg SDR, Barclays Research
4 December 2015
y/y chg
38
29
25
20
18
17
8
70-80bp
80-90bp
90-100bp
10
13
9
60-70bp
12
50-60bp
15
5
>200bp
100-200bp
40-50bp
30-40bp
<30bp
4 December 2015
39
Tighter spreads should offset approximately half of the expected move higher in
rates in 2016, leading to some slight price declines. The market will likely sell off on
the initial Fed move, but should recapture some of the spread widening over the
course of the year.
While BBs are rich versus history, we still expect them to outperform other parts of
the ratings spectrum on a risk-adjusted basis. However, from current levels we
believe they will underperform CCCs ex-commodities in absolute returns. At nearly
12% yield, the latter group offers good incremental compensation for the risk, and
we recommend combining BBs with hand-selected CCCs. We believe this quality
barbell has a good convexity profile whether conditions improve or deteriorate.
High yield has ample spread cushion to absorb the anticipated rate hike, and widerspread bonds typically absorb rates best, but we expect the demand technical to be
broadly negative initially. That said, in terms of positioning, the spread curve peaks
around the 3y duration point, suggesting that there isnt much benefit to going long
from an excess return perspective. Short duration should continue to trade like a
low-beta version of high yield.
We forecast gross supply of $270-290bn in 2016. M&A volumes are likely to remain
strong ($85-95bn), and we expect an increase in bond refinancing activity to $8595bn. We forecast a stable notional amount of GCP/capex issuance of $35-45bn.
We expect a significant increase in fallen angel volume next year, driven by energy
credits. In a reversal of the recent trend of more rising stars than fallen angels, we
forecast $55bn of fallen angels and $40bn in rising stars in 2016.
Derivatives are unlikely to outperform cash in 2016 due to an already-wide CDScash basis and a bifurcated spread distribution among CDX constituents. We believe
these factors should make CDX an attractive hedge and recommend incorporating
CDX options into portfolio hedging strategies. In addition, at the single-name level,
we believe the negative basis represents an attractive opportunity for those looking
to hedge or go short specific credit risk.
4 December 2015
40
Overview
2015 redux weve come a long way
Coming into 2015, the precipitous fall in oil and related decline in global growth were the
key concerns for high yield investors. In the first five months of the year oil seemed to have
found a range of $55-65, and the apparent stability sent both spreads and volatility lower;
by the end of May high beta high yield was performing solidly, with double Bs up 3.8%,
single-Bs up 4.5%, triple-Cs up 4.2%. The eventual slide to a new $40-50 range for WTI
wiped out much of the residual optimism in the energy sector, though, and a notable
preference for higher quality paper re-emerged.
As distress in energy and other commodities sectors increased, the market experienced a
broad pullback in risk appetite, and the combination of poor market performance and
widely-held expectations of an impending Fed tightening cycle only made matters worse.
With demand for risk at a weak point, companies that chose to tap the primary market in
the second half of the year were largely punished. Capital structures and even entire sectors
were repriced wider, and the jump in valuations was stunningly brisk due to the lack of
secondary market liquidity. By the early fall the high yield market had turned to negative
territory for the year, and at the end of November it had produced -2.2% in total returns for
the year on excess returns of -3.6% (Figure 1).
High yield remains volatile currently and, even excluding the energy sector, it still exhibits a
strong correlation to the price of oil (Figure 2). Indeed, while some sectors have at times
seemed like safe havens from commodity-driven volatility, energy sector performance is
closely tied to fluctuations in oil, and the rest of the market trades like a low-beta version of
the energy sector (Figure 3). The well-known relationship between high yield returns and
retail fund flows makes this a technical phenomenon, but the common factor between
energy and ex-energy is general risk appetite, which is currently tethered to concerns of
waning global growth.
While growth in China and certain other emerging markets is certainly decelerating, we
believe the US business cycle still has legs. Consumption represents nearly 70% of GDP in
the US economy, and consumption growth remains solid at 3.2% as of the third quarter.
While lower oil has been a headwind for certain segments of the economy, it has benefitted
the US consumer at the gas pump. Continued strength in the US dollar can also have a
positive net effect on US consumption given that the US tends to run a current account
FIGURE 1
Year-to-date total returns by credit quality
FIGURE 2
US High Yield spread vs. WTI crude oil price
1,200
6%
4%
90
1,000
2%
80
0.73%
0%
-2.16%
-2.52%
-2%
-4%
800
70
600
60
50
-6%
400
-8%
-10%
2-Jan
100
40
-8.02%
7-Mar
BB
4 December 2015
10-May
B
13-Jul
15-Sep
CCC
18-Nov
US HY
200
Aug-13
30
Jan-14
Energy OAS
Jun-14
Nov-14
Apr-15
Ex Energy OAS
Sep-15
WTI (RHS)
41
y = 0.47x - 0.35
R = 0.69
40
FIGURE 4
CAGR of par outstanding in the US HY Index
11%
11%
'94-'08
10%
15%
30
20
11%
10%
'09-'15
10
19%
28%
0
-10
12%
10%
'12-'14
27%
27%
-20
-30
-60
-40
-20
0
20
US HY Energy
40
60
0%
80
US HY
Note: Jan 1, 2015 through Nov 20, 2015. Source: Barclays Research
10%
Ex Commodities
20%
E&P
30%
Metals & Mining
deficit. That said, the effects on global demand for US products can be more complicated.
On one hand, lower aggregate demand is a negative as it will certainly not help reduce the
slack in the economy. However, with unemployment at 5.0% and labors share of corporate
income coming off the lows, a strong US dollar could be tempering inflationary pressures
and moderating the Feds hiking plans, a positive at least for credit investors.
FIGURE 5
US personal consumption growth
FIGURE 6
Business investment as a share of US GDP
8%
15%
6%
14%
4%
3.2%
12.8%
13%
2%
0%
12%
-2%
11%
-4%
-6%
Mar-00
Dec-03
Sep-07
4 December 2015
Jun-11
Mar-15
10%
'90
'95
'00
'05
'10
'15
42
FIGURE 7
Total and excess returns calculations for the US HY Index, with energy breakdown
Oil Price
$30.0
$35.0
$40.0
$45.0
$50.0
$55.0
$60.0
$65.0
$70.0
Default Rate
18.1%
16.6%
15.1%
13.6%
12.1%
8.3%
4.5%
4.1%
3.7%
915bp
680bp
480bp
305bp
150bp
15bp
-100bp
-200bp
-285bp
Default losses
-5.6%
-5.1%
-4.7%
-4.2%
-3.7%
-2.6%
-1.4%
-1.3%
-1.1%
Excess return
-37.3%
-26.1%
-16.5%
-8.0%
-0.5%
6.9%
13.3%
18.0%
22.1%
Total Return
-37.9%
-26.7%
-17.1%
-8.6%
-1.0%
6.3%
12.8%
17.5%
21.5%
3.1%
3.1%
3.1%
3.1%
3.1%
3.1%
3.1%
3.1%
3.1%
US HY Energy Index
US HY ex Energy Index
Default Rate
Spread change (ex defaults)
30bp
15bp
-5bp
-20bp
-35bp
-50bp
-65bp
-80bp
-90bp
Default losses
-1.3%
-1.3%
-1.3%
-1.3%
-1.3%
-1.3%
-1.3%
-1.3%
-1.3%
Excess return
3.0%
3.6%
4.4%
5.1%
5.7%
6.4%
7.0%
7.6%
8.1%
Total Return
2.6%
3.2%
4.1%
4.7%
5.3%
6.0%
6.6%
7.3%
7.7%
Default Rate
5.3%
5.1%
4.9%
4.7%
4.4%
3.9%
3.3%
3.2%
3.2%
139bp
97bp
55bp
20bp
-12bp
-42bp
-69bp
-95bp
-114bp
Default losses
-1.8%
-1.7%
-1.7%
-1.6%
-1.6%
-1.4%
-1.3%
-1.3%
-1.2%
Excess return
-2.0%
-0.1%
1.9%
3.5%
5.0%
6.4%
7.8%
8.9%
9.8%
Total Return
-2.4%
-0.5%
1.5%
3.1%
4.6%
6.0%
7.4%
8.5%
9.4%
US HY Index
4 December 2015
43
14%
12%
4.8%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Feb-96
Nov-98
Aug-01
May-04
Feb-07
Nov-09
Aug-12
May-15
Model forecast
Note: Shaded area represents 90% confidence envelope. Source: Federal Reserve, Moodys, Barclays Research
Our econometric model predicts a 4.8% default rate, with the large uptick from current
levels due to increases in both variables in the regression (Figure 8). The most recent senior
loan officer opinion survey points to a potential reversal in the long trend of loosening
underwriting standards; meanwhile, the distress rate has continued to rise since last year,
and stands at 16.8%, largely due to the aforementioned distress in commodities sectors.
A review of the issuers in the Barclays US High Yield Index in collaboration with our
fundamental analysts yields a default forecast of 5.8% if oil ends 2016 around $50. The bulk
of the distressed situations are in the energy and metals & mining sectors, and, as hedging
activity rolls off, defaults will in aggregate be very sensitive to commodity prices. Away from
commodities, defaults are much more idiosyncratic but retailers and aerospace/defense stand
out, with the former under pressure due to both secular and cyclical challenges (as discussed in
Sector Trends, below), and the latter burning cash and struggling under heavy debt burdens.
4 December 2015
44
2.5%
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-0.9
Ratio of performance
100 days pre vs post-hike
2.0%
-0.7
Ba: 0.72
B: 0.97
Caa: 1.66
1.5%
-2.0
-1.9
-2.5
1.0%
-3.0
-3.5
FIGURE 10
Average cumulative total returns around Fed hikes
0.5%
-4.0
-4.5
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
-4.2
80-90%
0.0%
-100
-75
-50
-25
25
50
75
100
Caa
Historically, the average beta between spreads and rates in months when rates rise has
been -1.0, implying full absorption of rates moves in spreads. However, the current situation
is admittedly out of sample, given more than six years of zero interest-rate policy and the
divergent courses set by the Fed and the ECB. In addition, the initial reaction to rising rates
can certainly be less positive for the asset class, driven by retail outflows. That said, with an
average high yield spread ex-energy of over 550bp, representing about 75% of average
yield, we are very comfortable with the markets ability to withstand an increasing rate
environment and expect high yield to perform well once any retail outflows abate (Figure 9).
Nonetheless, with the market focused on the imminent rate hike it is worth understanding
how high yield has performed through these events in the past. Any individual hike can be
quite different from the typical experience, but the average performance of different quality
buckets is telling and rather intuitive. High yield has performed well through tightening
events going back to mid-1997. However, in our sample period (23 rate hikes), average
double-B performance in the 100 days pre-hike is 0.7x that of the post-hike period. Single-B
performance is more balanced pre- and post-hike, while triple-C bonds actually perform
1.7x better before the hike, as rates are rising, than after (Figure 10). These results are
consistent with our analysis of spread and rates betas. However, given the spike in volatility
in the second half of 2015 and the ensuing outperformance of double-B paper, we believe
the experience could be different this time around, with double-Bs less likely to outperform
other quality buckets in absolute terms.
Shorter duration bonds have traded like a low beta version of high yield this year. As a
result, they underperformed in the rally through May, and have outperformed since. Indeed,
defining short duration as bonds with an OAD of 0-3 years, the short duration subset of US
HY produced -57bp in total returns through the end of November, compared with -2.16%
for the overall market (Figure 11). Unsurprisingly, as the markets appetite for risk has faded
the longer end of the curve has sold off hardest, and the yield curve does not offer any
obvious positioning insights (Figure 12). Meanwhile, the spread curve flattens out at around
3y OAD, suggesting that there is not much benefit to going long from an excess return
perspective, but the somewhat wider spread in the belly of the curve will likely be eroded by
flattening in the front end of the Treasury curve.
4 December 2015
45
FIGURE 11
Year-to-date short duration vs. index total returns
FIGURE 12
Yield and OAS by duration bucket, excluding commodities
300
3.5
250
3.0
200
-2%
-4%
Jan-15
< 0.5
-3%
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
US HY (0-3y OAD)
Nov-15
US HY
OAD (yrs)
Yield to Worst (%)
7.5 - 8
4.0
-1%
7 - 7.5
350
6.5 - 7
4.5
0%
6 - 6.5
400
5.5 - 6
5.0
1%
5 - 5.5
2%
4.5 - 5
450
4 - 4.5
5.5
3.5 - 4
3%
3 - 3.5
500
2.5 - 3
6.0
2 - 2.5
4%
1.5 - 2
550
1 - 1.5
6.5
0.5 - 1
5%
46
Retail
Dispersion is high in the retail sector, with over 50% of bonds (by par) trading below 6%, or
2% inside the overall market, but more than a quarter of the sector trading over 10% as
well. The embattled names mainly fall in the apparel and department stores categories
where several fundamental headwinds pose challenges. Management teams have cited a
laundry list of concerns, including a sluggish consumer, suggesting that the solid
consumption growth numbers for the broader economy (Figure 5) have yet to translate to
demand for more retail goods through traditional channels. Meanwhile, the stronger dollar
has likely depressed tourism spending in gateway cities, and may also have spurred
increased international travel, taking some retail consumption abroad. Lower traffic levels
due to online competition remain a longer-term secular concern, with some credits
managing the transition to omni-channel distribution better than others. As a result of
secular headwinds, deteriorating management outlooks, and the potential for further
headline risks due to a few possible defaults, our fundamental analyst, Hale Holden, is
downgrading retailers to Market Weight, and expects retailer valuations to remain
bifurcated through 2016.
Telecommunications
As the US wireless industry continues to mature, it is experiencing increasingly aggressive
price competition, led by T-Mobile (TMUS) and Sprint, in an effort to gain subscribers from
AT&T and Verizon. With its improved network performance and value-pricing, T-Mobile
has been successful with its Uncarrier strategy and consistently gained subscribers during
the past two years, capturing all the industrys growth. Under new management, during
the past year, Sprint has announced aggressively priced plans, while it is working to
improve its network performance and has had success reversing subscriber losses. TMUS is
the fourth-largest issuer in the high yield index, with about $17.6bn in bonds; has shown
very positive subscriber trends, as well as improved EBITDA margins; and is turning free
cash flow positive. Meanwhile, Sprint (largest index name, $30bn in bonds) has been
improving its network performance and reducing churn. It recently announced a 50%-off
promotion to attract new customers over the holiday season and its Leaseco structure to
finance leasing and reduce its cash burn. However, Sprint still faces significant execution
while it implements $2+bn of cost reductions and attempts to improve its subscriber growth
and reduce its cash burn. With these two issuers representing nearly two-thirds of the
sector, our fundamental analyst, Jeff Harlib, maintains a Market Weight rating.
4 December 2015
47
48
10y average
0.75
0.70
0.65
Current
0.60
Dec-05
Nov-07
Oct-09
YE 2014
Sep-11
BB/HY
Jul-15
Aug-13
Notes: Commodities sectors defined as energy and metals & mining. Source: Barclays Research
0.6
6%
4%
FIGURE 15
Sharpe ratio of BBs relative to other segments, as a function
of the BB/HY ratio
0.5
0.4
2%
0.3
0%
0.2
-2%
0.1
-4%
-6%
0.0
1
<< BB Rich
BB - HY
3
BB/HY by quintile
BB - B
4 December 2015
5
BB Cheap >>
BB - CCC
<< BB Rich
BB - HY
3
BB/HY by quintile
BB - B
5
BB Cheap >>
BB - CCC
49
FIGURE 16
Average cumulative monthly total returns of rising stars
relative to high yield and investment grade (%)
FIGURE 17
Average OAS of rising star candidates (bp)
10
450
BB
400
350
300
250
BBB
0
200
-2
-11-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 UG 1
2014
2015
Note: Monthly cumulative returns calculated for two distinct periods before and
after the downgrade month. High yield returns used as baseline for period before
upgrade and investment grade returns used after. Source: Barclays Research
150
100
AER
CNO
STZ
CCI
DHI
plausible path there). This barbell of sorts trades off some of the excess Sharpe ratio of
BBs for the historically high incremental compensation of CCCs, and has a good convexity
profile if conditions improve or deteriorate significantly.
Rising stars
Despite the volatility-driven sell-offs in high yield and investment grade this year, rising stars
continued their recent trend of outpacing falling angels, at $51bn and $36bn, respectively.
We expect this trend to reverse in 2016, with investment grade commodity credits forming
the majority of a $55bn pool of fallen angels, compared with $40bn in rising stars (see
Angels More Energetic than Stars, November 13, 2015, for details).
The performance of rising stars in 2015 has been similar to that of previous rising star cohorts.
Typically, credits outperform the High Yield Index significantly in the months leading up to the
upgrade as investors anticipate the transition and respond to the credit improvement under
way. This years rising star set notched an average 3.9% cumulative outperformance in the
year preceding the upgrade (Figure 16). However, the return benefit does not endure into the
post-upgrade months, as the credits go on to underperform the Investment Grade Index
modestly. Credits upgraded in 2015 have underperformed by an average of 0.6% in the first
six months of their investment grade status. These performance trends underscore the
importance of getting ahead of the ratings event to benefit from rising star outperformance.
However, the opportunity for spread compression appears limited among likely rising stars
next year. The majority of likely rising star candidates, as screened by our fundamental analyst
teams, are already trading inside 250bp, much closer to BBB levels (Figure 17).
50
2015
16-19%
22-25%
18-24%
+7%
-4%
19-23%
14-20%
10-14%
1-3%
0-3%
unchanged
-2%
12-16%
+1%
-1%
-1%
unch
22-25%
11-15%
IG/Income Fund
Pensions/Sep Accts
Hedge Fund
Insurance
Offshore
CLO/Loan Fund
Other
0-2%
0-3%
18-21%
4-7%
2014
5-8%
FIGURE 18
Estimated share of US high yield bond holdings
increased headlines focusing on declining liquidity in corporates, both of which have led to
significant outflows over the past 12 months. That said, retail funds that can own some
high yield (eg. investment grade funds, income funds, balanced funds, etc.) have held a
steady 22-25% share of the US high yield market, according to our estimates. This
apparently flat ownership share masks a few offsetting trends, with total assets held in
investment grade/income funds climbing 5%, from $1.03trn to $1.08trn, but their
allocation to high yield dropping from 29% to 27%.
Elsewhere in the retail universe, sources of demand include offshore funds, such as
European-domiciled UCITS funds and Japanese Toshin funds, the latter of which often
include a growth currency overlay to enhance yields. We estimate that this category has
shrunk slightly, down 1% to a range of 4-7%, driven mainly by declining AUM held in the
Toshin sub-category. Significant outflows from loan retail funds, combined with the
Volckerization of CLOs, make loan mutual funds and CLOs a smaller piece of the puzzle
this year, down 1%, to a range of 0-2% by our estimates.
The global hedge fund industry saw year-over-year asset growth of about 6% through the
second quarter of 2015, according to HFR, and we estimate that hedge funds currently
account for 14-20% of the US high yield asset base. The year-over-year decline in high yield
ownership despite a growing asset base reflects several factors namely, a decline in
allocation to credit strategies and an increase in off-index opportunities within fixed income.
Defaulted debt amounts have grown, with the Moodys Bankrupt Bond Index market value
up approximately 8% y/y, with Caesars representing the largest new addition. Other new
opportunities include Puerto Rico, and stressed issuers in emerging markets, none of which
fall in the index universe.
Institutional money, which includes pensions and other separately managed accounts, has
grown substantially over the past year, leading to a jump in this categorys share of high
yield assets. Indeed, by our estimates, pensions and other separately managed accounts
currently own 19-23% of the market. Our analysis of the Feds flow of funds release as of
the second quarter suggests that the growth has come from assets flowing into separately
managed accounts, which prominently include pension plans and endowments. The
substantial growth of this sub-category corroborates anecdotal evidence from
conversations with asset managers, with some money likely coming from European
pensions starved for yield in their local fixed income markets, as well as domestic pensions
shifting allocations toward high yield because of higher yields and elevated valuations in the
equity market.
4 December 2015
51
FIGURE 19
Annual issuance by use of proceeds
FIGURE 20
Monthly supply and high yield secondary market volatility
100%
50
80%
R = 0.43
40
60%
30
40%
20
20%
10
0%
'11
'10
Refi Bonds
Refi Loans
'12
'13
M&A/LBO
'14
GCP/CAPEX
'15
Other
0
0
4
6
8
HY 1M Total Return Volatility (%)
10
12
Finally, Barclays Risk Solutions Group performs an annual peer group study of life and P&C
insurers that accounts for the majority of assets in their securities portfolios. Based on this
analysis, we find that insurers have gained about 1% market share in US high yield and
currently own 11-15% of the market. This slight growth makes sense given higher yields
year-over-year, which tend to attract insurers looking to match their liabilities.
Supply
Primary issuance in the first half of the year mirrored H1 14 levels, but the drop-off since,
especially among energy credits, has put the market on pace for the lowest amount of
supply since 2011. About $250bn priced through November 27, and an annualized total of
$276bn constitutes a decrease of 9% y/y.
Acquisition-related issuance has been the most common use of proceeds in 2015 at
approximately 36% (Figure 19), well above its long-term average of 25%. The spread
between earnings yields (EBITDA/EV) and financing yields, an historically useful measure of
M&A appetite, has fallen to multi-year lows following the sharp sell-off in high yield. That
said, a potentially more important factor for gauging M&A activity is broad market volatility,
which has affected all types of supply throughout the year (Figure 20). The sensitivity of
different supply types to volatility partly explains the higher percentage of M&A activity this
year, in our view. While M&A is pre-committed, other supply can be delayed for longer
periods. We expect companies to continue to look closely at acquisition options next year,
with organic growth still difficult to come by in an environment of moderate US economic
growth. However, we do not foresee a meaningful increase in M&A activity from these
already elevated levels and expect the leveraged lending guidelines to continue having a
dampening effect on LBO issuance.
The flip side of companies greater focus on acquisitions this year has been a decrease in
investment, which is reflected in the lower GCP/capital expenditures supply totals. Only 16%,
or about $35bn, of new issuance has been slated for capex, driven by a $10bn decrease in
energy capex issuance y/y. We do not expect absolute levels of capex issuance to fall further,
but there is a risk of energy capex issuance completely shutting off. That said, continued
strength evident in the economic data would ease recession fears, which could be a tailwind
to economic activity in the latter half of 2016. About $65bn of bonds has been refinanced
this year, in line with the post-crisis average of 30% of total issuance. To estimate future
refinancings, we first analyze the opportunity set, which we define as the amount of debt
4 December 2015
52
FIGURE 21
2015 issuance by use of proceeds
Div/Repo
$5bn
GCP/Capex
2%
$36bn
14%
M&A/LBO
$90bn
36%
FIGURE 22
2016 issuance forecast by use of proceeds
Other
$5bn
3%
GCP/Capex
$35-45bn
15%
Refi Bonds
$75bn
30%
M&A/LBO
$85-95bn
33%
Refi Loans
$37bn
15%
Div/Repo
$8-12bn
4%
Other
$6-10bn
3%
Refi Bonds
$85-95bn
32%
Refi Loans
$30-40bn
13%
that matures or becomes callable within the next year. This has grown from $315bn to
nearly $400bn y/y, and the pace of growth has outpaced that of the overall high yield
universe. The set now represents nearly 27% of the market, compared with 22% last year, a
logical increase given this years subdued refinancing activity. The average coupon of
callable bonds next year is 7.7%, well above the average index coupon of 6.8%. That said,
only about a third of the callable set is trading above its call price. However, we anticipate
moderate spread tightening in the ex-energy portion of the index and therefore we expect
an increase in refinancing activity.
Overall, we think this years low level of issuance will likely be followed by a moderately
stronger year in the primary market. Without any clear catalysts for a sharp increase in
supply, we forecast $270-290bn of total issuance. We expect M&A-related supply to remain
robust overall, but drop slightly as a percentage of overall issuance (Figure 22). Risks to the
upside and downside of our forecast rest largely in the performance of the broader market.
A significant tightening in the secondary market would allow a broad swath of companies
to take advantage of the large refinancing opportunity and lower capital costs. We expect
refinancings to comprise approximately 30% of overall supply.
4 December 2015
53
FIGURE 23
Annual HY cash excess returns versus CDX returns
FIGURE 24
Comparing sector weights: HY24, HY25, and iBoxx HY*
25%
14%
12%
20%
10%
8%
15%
6%
10%
4%
2%
5%
0%
-2%
HY24
HY25
Util
Telco
Tech
Indust
Health
Fin
2013
2014
2015
HYCDX Total Return
Energy
2010
2011
2012
HY Cash Excess Return
CDX minus Cash
Basic
Mat
Con
Goods
Con
Svcs
0%
-4%
iBoxx HY
FIGURE 26
Matched high yield CDS-cash basis
bp
0
$bn
6.0
$4.9bn
5.0
-40
4.0
$3.0bn
3.0
2.0
-20
$3.2bn
-60
$2.4bn
-80
$1.6bn
-100
1.0
-120
0.0
2011
2012
4 December 2015
2013
2014
2015
-140
Nov-14
Feb-15
May-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
54
# of Tickers
73.8
57.5
-22.2%
Least Liquid
DLX (7.1)
DLX (2.1)
Most Liquid
JCP (350.0)
CHK (255.1)
6
2
2 2
4 December 2015
5
2
Util
Median Weekly
Volume
13
Telco
-31.4%
Tech
58.0
Ind
84.5
17
Health
Avg Weekly
Volume
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Fin
y/y
%chg
Cons Goods
Aug 2015
($mn)
Basic Mat
Aug 2014
($mn)
Energy
6m Period Ending:
FIGURE 28
Volume comparison of HYCDX S25 constituents
Cons Svcs
FIGURE 27
HYCDX S25 constituent volume comparison: 2014 vs. 2015
Note: Chart includes the 91 index constituents for which both cash and CDS
volume data were available. Volumes calculated using data from the eight-week
period ending October 23, 2015. Source: DTCC, TRACE, Bloomberg, Barclays
Research
55
FIGURE 29
HYCDX spread by on-the-run series
FIGURE 30
HY25 constituent spread distribution
550
# of Tickers
25
21
18
20
451bp
13
10
400
16
15
7
600-1000bp
450
500-600bp
500
356bp
HY24
Nov-15
HY25
Note: Spread levels have been adjusted for defaults. Source: Barclays Research
>1000bp
Sep-15
400-500bp
HY23
Jul-15
300-400bp
May-15
200-300bp
Mar-15
100-200bp
300
Jan-15
0
<100bp
350
4 December 2015
56
2016. We estimate returns from carry of about 4.7% and moderate price upside of $1-2.
BCI, US
The loan default rate is likely to be lower than that of high yield, given that most of our
anticipated increase in high yield defaults stems from commodity credits.
Eric Gross
+1 212 412 7997
eric.gross@barclays.com
next year. We expect M&A activity to maintain a large share of the primary market but
not rise significantly and for refinancing activity to remain subdued.
BCI, US
We forecast $70-80bn of CLO issuance in 2016. The CLO market faces a variety of
Anthony Bakshi
headwinds that will likely weigh on supply, including further risk retention-driven
manager consolidation and the negative effect of rising rates on potential equity IRRs.
Overview
The loan market has returned 1.17% so far in 2015 (Figure 1), maintaining positive returns
despite trading down sharply since the late August selloff that affected most risk assets. Loans
have returned significantly more than high yield 3.3% ahead on total returns to date and
are on pace to exceed high yield returns for the first time since 2007. Loan performance has
benefited from a beta to high yield that has been below historical levels. The loan to high yield
beta has been 0.3 year-to-date, compared with 0.6 since 2007. The two markets relationship
partly depends on overall spread levels (see A Shifty Beta, May 22, 2015), but the subdued
sensitivity of loans has persisted in the higher spread environment this fall (Figure 3). Despite
the relative strength, the loan market is on pace to deliver a Sharpe ratio of less than 1 for the
first time since the crisis era (Figure 2). The driver of the decrease has been the disappointing
returns, as returns volatility this year is at a level similar to that of 2012-14.
FIGURE 1
Annual loan returns
15%
FIGURE 2
Loan Index Sharpe ratio
+51.9%
2016 forecast:
5.0-6.0%
3.5
3.0
10%
3.0
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.0
5%
1.6
1.5
1.0
0%
-29.3%
-5%
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Note: Annual returns of the S&P/LSTA Performing Loans Index.
Source: S&P LCD, Barclays Research
4 December 2015
0.6
0.4
0.5
0.0
'97-'01
'01-'06
'06-'09
'10-'12
'12-'14
'15
57
FIGURE 3
Spread beta of loans to high yield
FIGURE 4
Cumulative retail fund flows and fund AUM since 2013
0.7
80
160
0.6
70
140
60
120
50
100
40
80
0.5
0.4
0.3
30
60
0.2
20
40
0.1
10
20
0.0
Since 2007
Since 2010
Since 2014
YTD
Since 8/20
0
Jan-13
0
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
58
FIGURE 5
Loan price distribution
FIGURE 6
Loan and high yield sector exposures by par outstanding
100%
20%
90%
16%
80%
70%
12%
60%
50%
8%
40%
30%
4%
20%
10%
0%
Jan-13
0%
Jul-13
Less than 70
Jan-14
70-80
80-90
Jul-14
90-100
Jan-15
Jul-15
Note: S&P/LSTA Performing Loans Index Source: S&P LCD, Barclays Research
Tech
Healthcare
+ Pharma
Retail
Loans
Media
Gaming +
Lodging
HY
market faces potential sector risks that differ from those in high yield. Technology,
healthcare, and retail credits make up 35% of index par, compared with 20% in high yield
(Figure 6). Although there are idiosyncratic headwinds that may drive the loans of individual
credits much lower, we do not expect these sectors to face systemic challenges that would
meaningfully drag on index returns in 2016.
Default Risk
Although the default rate for high yield bond issuers is already on the rise, reaching 3.8% on
an LTM basis as of the end of October, the loan default rate is still a very mild 1.47% and
does not yet show signs of acceleration (Figure 7). The divergence certainly reflects the
difference in energy exposure across these two parts of the leveraged finance market, and,
given that most of our anticipated increase in high yield default rates is driven by
commodities sectors, we believe the divergence can persist. It also reflects a structural
difference in loan and bond default rates arising from the fact that distressed exchanges,
which count toward the default rate, are typically offered for bonds rather than loans.
Nonetheless, we forecast a rise in loan defaults to 2.75-3.25% on an issuer-weighted basis
for 2016. Similarly to high yield, we arrive at this range by combining an econometric model
and a bottom-up analysis of loan issuers. From the top down, our model relies on changes
in underwriting standards, as captured by the Feds senior loan officer opinion survey, and
the percentage of the loan market trading below $80. The top-down model currently
forecasts 3.5% (Figure 8). From the bottom up, we are slightly more constrained by the
private nature of financials in the loan market. Although this precludes us from having an
explicit bottom-up forecast, our analysis of issuers produces very few with near-term
default risk. This suggests that the econometric model forecast should be shaded lower,
and we therefore also expect the par-weighted default rate to be lower than the issuerweighted rate in 2016.
4 December 2015
59
FIGURE 7
Loan and bond issuer-weighted default rates
FIGURE 8
Modeled and realized issuer-weighted loan default rate
18%
20%
16%
16%
14%
Current 12-month
model forecast:
12%
12%
10%
3.5%
8%
8%
6%
3.80%
4%
0%
Oct-96
1.47%
May-00
Dec-03
Jul-07
US Loan Issuer
Feb-11
4%
2%
0%
Nov-04
Sep-14
Aug-07
May-10
US Bond Issuer
Feb-13
Nov
Sectors
The difference in sector exposures is an important consideration for investors determining the
relative value between loans and high yield. The largest sector trade-off between the two
markets is the substitution of outsized energy exposure (~15% of high yield par) for large tech
exposure (~16% of loan par). The concentration of tech names in the loan index has increased
steadily, while commodity exposure has remained low over the years of high unsecured
energy issuance (Figure 9). This year, the loan markets sector weightings have contributed to
its relative outperformance; while the commodity sectors have sold off to distressed levels,
tech and healthcare credits have remained above $96 (Figure 10).
We do not expect a build-up of sector-specific concerns in the largest loan sectors that
would meaningfully weigh on returns in 2016. However, there are significant idiosyncratic
credit risks that may play out. Clear Channel, for instance, is the largest media non-cable
issuer, and portions of both the tech and retail/consumer services sectors consist of
businesses facing long-term, secular decline. That said, our fundamental analysts are
generally positive on most of the large issuers in the prominent loan sectors. Therefore, our
FIGURE 9
Loan index sector exposure by par
FIGURE 10
Loan sector prices
20%
100
16%
90
12%
80
8%
70
4%
60
Nov-14
0%
'99
'01
'03
Tech
Energy
'05
'07
'09
'11
'13
Healthcare
Metals & Mining
'15
Note: S&P/LSTA Performing Loans Index. Source: S&P LCD, Barclays Research
4 December 2015
Feb-15
Tech
Energy
Perf. Index
May-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Healthcare
Metals and Mining
60
Quality
A flight to quality has been evident in the loan market in 2015. Throughout the sell-off, the
demand for higher-quality paper has persisted, and BBs have held in relatively well. BBs are
currently trading at about $97, just $1 below year-end levels, compared with a market that
is down about $3 overall. As a result, BBs have tightened significantly relative to the index
and are now at their tightest since the summer of 2013 (Figure 11).
The current relative value picture leaves single-B loans poised to outperform next year, in our
view. The gap between single-Bs and BBs is at nearly 250bp on effective spread terms, the
widest it has been in four years, and a moderate domestic growth environment in 2016 should
be supportive of spread tightening in the single-B segment of the market. In addition, large
dislocations between B and BB loans have historically resulted in significant single-B
outperformance in the subsequent year. The largest spread difference between single-Bs and
BBs exceeded 200bp in each year from 2010-12; in the 12 months that followed each
instance, single-Bs returned an average of 3.3% more than double-Bs.
That said, we remain cautious on the lower tier of the single-B market and specifically prefer B
and B+ loans. Fundamental deterioration in single-Bs has become a major concern of CLO
managers eyeing their CCC bucket limits, as detailed in the CLO section, which may continue
to constrain demand for higher-yielding single-Bs. The valuation gaps between BBs and the B
and B+ segments individually look elevated on a historical basis as well (Figure 12), which
positions the higher tier of the single-B universe for outperformance in 2016.
FIGURE 11
BB Loan effective spreads relative to overall index
FIGURE 12
Effective spread gap between B and BB loans (bp)
900
90%
800
85%
700
600
80%
500
75%
400
300
70%
200
65%
100
0
Jan-12
60%
Sep-12 May-13 Jan-14
BB/Index (RHS)
Sep-14 May-15
Index (bp)
4 December 2015
BB (bp)
400
800
350
700
300
600
250
500
200
400
150
300
100
200
50
100
0
Jan-12
0
Sep-12 May-13
B+ - BB
Jan-14
B - BB
Sep-14 May-15
B- - BB (RHS)
61
52-55%
12-14%
21-24%
3-6%
-1%
2-4%
-1%
-3%
2-4%
2015
-5%
24-27%
1-3%
+8%
17-19%
+2%
44-46%
3-6%
2014
2-4%
FIGURE 13
Estimated share of US leveraged loan holdings
U.S./Euro CLOs
Note: Some 2014 statistics have been adjusted to reflect methodology changes.
Source: Lipper, EPFR, Bloomberg, Creditflux, CEF Connect, Intex, S&P LCD, HFR, Fund filings, Barclays Research
4 December 2015
62
FIGURE 14
Monthly loan supply ($bn)
FIGURE 15
Annual issuance by use of proceeds
100
100%
90
90%
80
80%
70
70%
60
60%
50
50%
40
40%
30
30%
20
20%
10
10%
0%
Repricing
2010
2011
Div/Recap
2012
2013
M&A/LBO
GCP
2014
Refi
2015
Other
Supply
The loan primary market never kicked into full gear in 2015, trailing last years issuance totals
from the beginning of the calendar year (Figure 14). About $225bn priced through November
27, ex-repricings, which annualizes to about $250bn. The market is on pace for its lowest
notional supply amount since 2011 and the lowest level as a percentage of market size (27%)
since the credit crisis. In the spring, the market environment of high prices and positive spread
tightening momentum led to a spate of repricing activity, but total repricing has still amounted
to just $61bn, a multi-year low. M&A and LBO issuance has constituted most of the subdued
supply total, combining for 62% of ex-repricing activity (Figure 15).
The most recent Shared National Credits (SNC) review sheds some light on lending trends
within this smaller universe of loan new issues. The effects of the leveraged lending
guidelines are evident in the changing distribution of new loan leverage. The share of the
new issue market with 7x or greater leverage has dropped to 2.4%, from 7.3% at the end of
last year, and no new deals were done in 3Q15 with more than seven turns of leverage . The
6-7x bucket has also shrunk materially y/y, and the 5-6x bucket has picked up most of the
slack (Figure 16), suggesting that many deals that would have had greater than 6x leverage
adjusted their financing to get onside with respect to the guidance, enabling supervised
entities to participate. Purchase multiples have continued to tick higher the average
purchase multiple for large LBOs has grown to 10.2x year-to-date, from 9.7x in 2014, and is
at the highs since at least 1997 (Figure 17). For large LBO transactions, larger equity checks
are the only way for these deals to get done without crossing into leverage territory in which
banks cannot follow. The average equity contribution in large LBOs increased to 39% in
2015 from 36% in 2014. We do not expect a significant increase in M&A and LBO issuance
in 2016, given both the larger equity checks required from sponsors and generally elevated
equity valuations at this stage of the business cycle.
In a reversal of a post-crisis trend, supply tilted heavily toward higher-quality loans in 2015.
Single-B and below-rated issuance dropped from 68% of total supply in 2014 to 50% this
year. Part of this change is, in our view, attributable to the continued shift away from LBOs to
M&A. In addition, as the valuation gap between BBs and Bs reached multi-year highs, it
became significantly more cost effective for companies to finance with higher-quality loans. In
the same vein, second-lien issuance has dropped to about $9bn at the same time that
secondary second liens have sold off precipitously, partly because of the higher exposure to
energy credits in this segment of the market.
4 December 2015
63
0%
29.0%
'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 *
< 4.0x
4.0x-4.9x
5.0x-5.9x
6.0x-6.9x
Note: 2015 data through 2Q. Source: S&P LCD, Barclays Research
7.0x
4.3x
5.8x
10.2x
3.8x
3.3x
5.5x
9.7x
5.9x
3.6x
5.3x
3.7x
3.8x
5.3x
10%
5.0x
20%
5.3x
30%
6.3x
24.8%
4.8x
40%
7.9x
3.8x
50%
7.4x
8.6x
4.0x
60%
8.2x
4.2x
27.5%
3.6x
70%
2.9x
80%
9.8x 9.5x
10
5.7x
16.3%
12
2.6x
2.4%
90%
5.6x
100%
FIGURE 17
Average Equity and Debt Multiples of Large* LBOs
2.4x
FIGURE 16
Volume-Weighted Leverage for New Loan Transactions
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 *
Debt/EBITDA
Equity/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA
Note: * Large defined as companies with more than $50mn in EBITDA. 2015 data
through 3Q. Source: S&P LCD, Barclays Research
The supply outlook also depends on the health of the retail and CLO markets. As discussed
above, we expect a moderation of outflows in the near term and the potential for more
significant interest from retail investors later in 2016. Our forecast for CLO issuance is $7080bn, as detailed in the final section, and this level of creation is sufficient to provide a positive
technical for the loan market, in our view. Overall, we expect a moderate rebound in loan
supply next year, to $250-275bn, ex-repricings. While a healthy pipeline of deal-related
issuance should boost issuance volumes early in 2016, we do not see a catalyst for a
meaningful rise in deal-related activity, especially as dealers look to comply with the leveraged
lending guidelines. In addition, there will be little need for refinancings in 2016, as the loan
maturity wall has been pushed back beyond 2020. While primary market activity will likely rise
from this years low levels, especially given a less volatile macro backdrop, we do not envision
an environment conducive to the mid-$300bn supply levels of 2013 and 2014.
CLO Trends
It has been a tale of two halves for the CLO market in 2015. Primary issuance was strong in
the first half, with $60bn of new structures created overall. Meanwhile, secondary levels
tightened from 2014 year-end levels that had widened due to the initial energy-driven
selloff in late 2014. But a combination of factors has slowed CLOs in recent months. The
broad market sell-off in August brought secondary trading activity to a halt as investors
expressed concerns about energy exposure and more general deterioration in collateral
quality. The wider secondary levels, in turn, created a relative value gap between potential
equity returns in existing and new issue structures, which made it much more difficult for
managers to place new deals. In addition, persistently low loan supply has decreased the
available collateral for new deals. Manager tiering has continued to be a theme in both the
primary and secondary markets there has been notable dispersion in new issue AAA levels
across recent deals, depending on the collateral manager, and secondary valuations
continue to be primarily driven by a combination of manager quality and the amount of
commodity exposure in the collateral.
4 December 2015
64
FIGURE 18
Secondary CLO spreads (bp)
FIGURE 19
CLO issuance required to offset amortization ($bn)
800
140
700
120
600
100
500
80
400
60
300
40
200
20
100
0
AAA
AA
Year-end 2014
BBB
End 1H15
Current
BB
'11
'12
CLO Issuance
'13
'14
'15
'16
'17
'18
'19
Note: Gray bar is 2016 estimate of CLO issuance. Year-to-date 2015 total.
Source: Intex, S&P LCD, Barclays Research
Despite intra-year turbulence, the market has issued a robust $90bn. Secondary levels have
remained wide of the mid-year tights but are mostly at similar or tighter levels than year-end
2014 (Figure 18). Spreads have stabilized in recent weeks, spurring a pick-up in buyer interest.
For 2016, we forecast a further reduction in CLO issuance to $70-80bn total. Issuance in this
range would be a positive technical for incremental loan demand. We estimate that total
issuance required to offset amortization is $50bn, as the large wave of 2.0 deals exiting their
reinvestment periods is still several years out and nearly 80% of CLO structures will remain in
their reinvestment periods through 2016 (Figure 19).
There are both regulatory- and demand-driven downside risks to our CLO forecast. Risk
retention will begin to be enforced at the end of 2016, and managers have been preparing
for the start date this year. Although the majority of 2015 new issues have not been
compliant, the proportion of new deals that are compliant has accelerated of late (Figure
20). Earlier in the year, there was evidence of a pull-forward effect on supply driven by
regulation, as managers chose to issue deals with 1.5-year non-call periods to leave
refinancing options open prior to December 2016. Such structures are no longer viable, and
we anticipate that the majority of new issuance will be risk-retention-compliant in 2016.
Another looming regulatory concern for CLOs is the finalization of the Fundamental Review
of the Trading Book (FRTB), which is expected by year-end from the Basel Committee for
Banking Supervision. Current FRTB documents incorporate a significant increase in bank
capital requirements for securitized products. The instatement of the framework in its
current form would constitute a negative for liquidity in the CLO secondary market.
Managers have used both the horizontal and vertical slice options in this years risk retentioncompliant deals. Horizontal slices have been used by managers and their affiliates to retain a
majority of equity tranches, while vertical slices are amenable to retention financing
agreements between CLO managers and other institutions. Meanwhile, managers that do not
have sufficient internal capital have sought a variety of partnerships. Multiple M&A deals
have occurred between experienced CLO managers and financial institutions with larger
pools of capital, and more are likely to take place in 2016. As a result of such transactions,
caused by an increase in the barriers to entry for CLO issuance, the market has started to
see clear evidence of manager consolidation. The quantity of deals issued by new CLO
managers has fallen steeply from prior years only six new managers have entered the
market in 2015, compared with 18 last year and 29 in 2013 (Figure 21). In contrast, 30
managers that issued CLOs in 2014 have not participated in the market at all in 2015.
4 December 2015
65
FIGURE 20
New issue CLOs by US risk retention compliance ($bn)
FIGURE 21
New and existing manager issuance of US CLOs 2.0 ($bn)
35
35%
140
30
30%
120
25
25%
100
20
20%
80
15
15%
60
10
10%
40
5%
20
0%
0
1Q15
2Q15
Non-Compliant
Source: S&P LCD, Barclays Research
3Q15
Compliant
4Q15
% Compliant (RHS)
18
29
2013
2014
Existing Managers
2015
New Managers
Note: Numbers represent count of new CLO 2.0 managers. Excludes middlemarket deals. Source: S&P LCD, Barclays Research
Although risk retention will remain a theme in the months ahead, we think the more
pressing risk for the CLO primary market next year is investor demand. The equity arb is
currently at mid-teen levels (Figure 22), below the realized return of equity investors over
the past few years. That said, historical realized returns have been significantly enhanced by
rates remaining below forward curve-implied levels. Indeed, the recent collateral selloff has
made the implied equity return look more attractive than it has over most of the past two
years. In addition, structural changes that benefit equity holders have been evident in new
deals in 2015. Managers have boosted leverage this year, with the median equity leverage
rising from 10.7x in 2014 to 11.5x (Figure 23).
The looming start of the Feds rate hiking cycle will weigh on equity IRRs. As rates rise, CLO
debt holders will receive higher floating rates that are not matched by increases in collateral
gains that would benefit equity holders, until the prevalent 1% Libor floor is breached (see
CLO Equity Investors: You Have the Floor). On the senior liability side, we believe it has been
difficult to find large buyers of AAAs of new deals, even at wider spreads and especially for
deals brought by lower-tier managers. Although these factors have slowed creation recently,
we expect an easing of these conditions next year, allowing for a lower, but still robust,
issuance total. CLO AAAs look attractive on a relative value basis across securitized products
(see Cross Asset Outlook 2016: Relative value across securitized credit), which should spur
incremental demand for the product.
Meanwhile, tranches in the secondary market will likely continue to face collateral quality
questions in the near term. Investors have recently been concerned about the single-B
portion of the loan market, which has sold off significantly relative to BBs. A flurry of ratings
downgrades in the single-B universe would meaningfully affect the CCC bucket cushions of
existing deals, which typically have 7.5% limits. Although CLO holdings of CCCs are
currently well contained, with a market-wide share of 3-4%, further deterioration in quality
would constitute a key development for CLO secondary levels. In addition, our expectation
of a higher default rate environment will translate to steep collateral losses in some
structures. That said, we expect most defaults to occur in the commodity space, and energy
exposure in CLO collateral is relatively low, with median deal exposure of about 5% across
both energy and metals & mining. This low exposure will likely shield the majority of
structures from major default-driven losses.
4 December 2015
66
FIGURE 22
CLO equity arb
FIGURE 23
Median leverage of equity tranches in CLO new issues
20%
12.0
18%
11.5
16%
11.0
14%
10.5
12%
10%
10.0
8%
9.5
6%
9.0
4%
8.5
2%
0%
Jan-14
8.0
May-14
Sep-14
4 December 2015
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
Note: Broadly syndicated loans only. Source: S&P LCD, Barclays Research
67
MUNICIPAL CREDIT
No pain, no gain
Mikhail Foux
+1 212 526 7849
mikhail.foux@barclays.com
BCI, US
Sarah Xue
+1 212 526 0790
sarah.xue@barclays.com
BCI, US
Mayur Patel
+1 212 526 7609
mayur.xa.patel@barclays.com
BCI, US
Higher Treasury rates, rich valuations and headline risks are set to make 2016 a
lackluster year for the municipal market. For tax-exempts, we expect somewhat
higher ratios and credit spreads and for taxable munis, slightly tighter spreads.
In our view, the first half of the year should be fairly difficult, especially if the Fed is
more aggressive; municipal issuance might once again be front loaded, and higher
rates might cause fund outflows. However, we believe that the muni market should
stabilize by the second half of 2016.
Next year, we expect $355-370bn of long-term gross municipal supply (down 7-12%
y/y) and $360bn of redemptions. This results in a roughly flat net supply forecast.
In our view, overall municipal credit quality should continue to improve, and we do
not envision widespread municipal credit troubles in 2016. That said, if and when
the next recession materializes, current problem areas could materially worsen.
Given rich valuations and potential pressures from rates, in our view, it will be
somewhat difficult to find numerous attractive relative value opportunities in 2016.
Hence, investors should spend extra time sourcing alpha.
In high grade, we do not see much value in AA credits and find better opportunities
further down the credit spectrum. We believe the muni yield curve is likely to flatten.
We like toll roads, education, strong hospitals, and selected appropriated bonds, as
well as fixed income instruments wrapped by monolines.
Muni high yield appears rich, possibly with the exception of MSA tobacco bonds; we
recommend cuspy BBB/BB-rated credits instead.
In the taxable space, we see few attractive opportunities. However, we still see value
in callable BABs, MEAG/Santee Cooper, and Chicago Water and Wastewater debt.
Volatility ahead
We expect 2016 to be relatively difficult for municipal investors, for a number of reasons:
The Fed. Investors overwhelmingly expect a 25bp tightening move later this month, but
the trajectory of Fed tightening after that is extremely uncertain. Barclays rate
strategists expect the Fed to hike several times next year; if this comes to fruition, rate
volatility is likely, even if 10y Treasuries continue to trade in a relatively narrow trading
range (2.1-2.6%) as per our strategists forecast.
Valuations. After their 4Q rally, munis are set to start 2016 at fairly rich valuations, both
outright and compared with Treasuries. Ratios are already trading through fair valuations
at the current level of rates, and it is hard to expect any outperformance from munis in the
coming months (Figure 1). Credit spreads (especially AAs) also look fully valued (Figure 2),
meaning that if rates start rising, munis may be unable to cushion the move fully.
4 December 2015
68
FIGURE 1
Muni-Treasury ratios 2-year range
FIGURE 2
Yield-to-worst differentials (bp)
Ratio (%)
Differential (bp)
140
140
130
AA-AAA
A-AA
BBB-A
120
120
110
100
100
80
90
60
80
40
Current
70
20
60
0
Jan-12 Aug-12 Mar-13 Oct-13 May-14 Dec-14
50
2y
5y
10y
15y
20y
30y
Source: Barclays
Jul-15
Regulations and headline risk. 2016 is a US election year and there will likely be many
headlines related to overhauling the tax code. Although actual action on this front is
unlikely near term, headline risk will likely remain elevated and could affect the muni
market. Meanwhile, new rules for banks and mutual funds could affect their appetite,
which could translate into higher liquidity premiums and lower liquidity.
Credit concerns. For the most part we have a pretty positive view on municipal credit,
but a number of high-profile municipal credits could continue to generate negative
headlines, with a larger effect on the broader muni market.
4 December 2015
69
Muni
Carry
Muni
Total
Return
Muni
Excess
Return
0.12%
0.09%
-0.04%
0.01%
0.55%
0.31%
0.23%
-0.16%
0.06%
93%
0.50%
0.42%
0.38%
-0.16%
0.05%
2.75%
103%
0.47%
0.39%
0.40%
-0.19%
0.12%
2.55%
2.90%
105%
0.43%
0.32%
0.34%
-0.11%
0.21%
2.92%
3.20%
102%
0.40%
0.57%
0.57%
-0.31%
0.15%
2.14%
2.03%
-0.98%
0.60%
Maturity
Bucket
Index
Weight
Muni
Duration
Treasury
Duration
Current
UST Yield
12.9%
1.77
1.93
0.94%
1.65%
77%
0.60%
18.9%
3.78
4.60
1.64%
2.25%
77%
10
19.4%
5.67
7.87
2.18%
2.60%
15
16.6%
7.54
10.50
2.35%
20
12.6%
8.38
14.60
30
19.6%
11.12
18.70
Total
Source: Barclays Research
Using a similar methodology for the Barclays taxable muni index, we project total and excess
returns of 1-1.5% and 3-3.5%, respectively. As Figure 4 shows, taxable munis have been
outperforming corporates for nearly 18 months. They are still trading about 30bp wide of their
recent lows, reached in 2014; however, given that munis and corporates are subsectors of the
Barclays Credit index, we think it will be hard for taxable munis to outperform from current
levels unless long-dated high grade corporates also perform well, since credit investors
monitor relative value between the two products. Consistent with the IG corporate forecast,
we expect taxable munis to tighten about 10-15bp.
Market outlook
2015 started at rich ratios and low yields, which came under pressure in the first half of the
year from higher Treasury rates and a massive increase in supply, resulting in fund outflows.
Rates stabilized, heavy issuance diminished and outflows stopped. As it stands now,
Treasury rates are still slightly higher than where they started 2015, but tighter municipal
spreads have helped to offset this performance drag, helping munis to roughly make their
coupon for the year, returning only 2.2% year-to-date.
In our view, 2016 will have a lot of similarities with 2015. We again expect a relatively
difficult start to the year, especially if rates and ratios continue getting richer in the coming
weeks. Rates are likely to move gradually higher as investors start pricing in their
FIGURE 4
Corporates vs taxable munis
280
FIGURE 5
The winter effect on Q1 GDP
55
Diff
Taxable Munis +20y
U.S. Long Credit
240
35
GDP (%)
5
4
3
200
15
2
1
160
-5
0
-1
120
Jan-12
-25
Jan-13
Jan-14
4 December 2015
Jan-15
-2
1Q10
1Q11
1Q12
1Q13
1Q14
1Q15
Source: Bloomberg
70
Rates
In the muni space, everything starts and ends with Treasury rates. All large municipal
selloffs in recent history (with the exception of 2008-09) have followed Treasury selloffs,
and vice versa there have been no periods of substantial municipal volatility when rates
have been stable. With the Feds decision several weeks away, investors are highly confident
that it will tighten by 25bp. However, most investors believe that after that the Fed is likely
to take a wait-and-see approach. Markets are pricing the probability of another rate hike
before next summer at close to 50%.
We think investors may be underestimating the proximity of a second hike, for the following
reasons: for the past several years, economic activity in Q1 has been severely affected by
harsh winters (ie, 2011, 2014 and 2015) (Figure 5). However, the upcoming winter is
expected to be unusually warm as a result of the strongest El Nio effect in nearly two
decades. If true, we would expect a fairly substantial boost to economic activity in Q1,
which would look especially strong in seasonally adjusted terms. Robust economic data
might encourage the Fed to move more aggressively in the first half of the year, and capital
markets, including munis, might not be ready for such a turn of events.
Credit concerns
In our view, credit concerns are unlikely to affect the broader muni market next year, but
there are several trends worth noting. We start with Puerto Rico, where next years credit
4 December 2015
71
FIGURE 7
Issuance by capital type
($bn)
$bn
Tax-exempt supply
325
400
Taxable supply
35
350
Gross supply
360
300
Total redemptions
360
250
200
Net supply
150
2015 YTD
+41%
+5%
100
50
0
New Capital
Source: Barclays Research
4 December 2015
Refunding
Total Issuance
72
Refunding
New Capital
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
2016 F
2015 F
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
Refundings: We expect total refundings to come in lower y/y at $215bn, mainly because
current refundings should be down $30bn y/y. Meanwhile, advance refunding activity
should be robust and could receive a boost if the Fed is more aggressive and the yield
curve flattens by more than expected, decreasing negative arbitrage and making advance
refundings more palatable.
Although we do not expect the rate of refunding in 1H16 to reach the levels seen in 2015,
we do think that the first half of next year, particularly the first quarter, will again be heavy.
If the Fed tightens in December 2015, issuers may rush to the market to lock in lower
rates; even if the Fed remains on hold, we still expect issuers to rush to the market, as they
did earlier this year, to get in front of the future Fed rate hike.
To calculate the refundings portion of our 2016 issuance forecast, our analysis
incorporates all new money supply that has not been refunded and that was issued in
and after 2005, callable in 2016, 2017, and the first six months of 2018. We assume that
all bonds callable next year and in the first three months of 2017 will be refunded next
year and that a portion of bonds callable in the following 18 months will also be advance
refunded. Additionally, we assume that bonds with maturities under five years will not
be refunded, despite meeting the criteria. Our analysis excludes notes and derivatives.
New money: We believe 2016 new money supply will be slightly down y/y, coming in at
$145bn. An indication of annual new money supply is the number of bond issues
appearing on ballot measures requiring voter approval. In 2015 (for 2016), there was
about $24bn in proposed new debt, almost half the $44bn that appeared on the
November 2014 ballots (for 2015), but similar to the approximately $20bn in 2013 (for
2014). Typically, there are fewer bond issues appearing on the odd year ballots,
compared with even years. We believe that new money issuance will be slightly below
the average of the past five years (Figure 8).
4 December 2015
73
Pension obligation bonds: Several large deals were already approved by voters in
November. In our view, the upward trend in rates and unfunded pension liabilities might
make issuers more inclined to issue POBs;
Healthcare taxable issuance should continue its robust pace because it is harder to
control the use of proceeds after mergers. By contrast, there are many projects that are
not allowed to be financed in the tax-exempt market;
Higher education taxable issuance should also remain strong as institutions continue
to take advantage of strong investor appetite for high-quality credits and low rates; and
Notably, Hillary Clinton reintroduced the idea of a Build America Bond (BAB) program in
her latest infrastructure plan. The idea of BAB-like structures could be revisited, though
it appears to be a bit of a long-shot.
AMT supply this year stands at around $10bn, compared with the $7bn that came to market
through October 2014. The growth rate over the past five years has averaged 20% and we
assume this trajectory will continue, thus bringing our 2016 supply forecast to $13bn.
Gross supply: We expect 2016 long-term gross issuance to come in at $355-370bn, down
about 7-12% y/y. There could be an upside surprise to our forecast if the following occur:
Increased new money issuance, driven by spending in the infrastructure and utility
sectors.
Although, in our opinion, the above two scenarios are unlikely, they do pose a risk to our
projections and could result in an upside surprise to our 2016 forecasts.
Credit themes
In our view, overall municipal credit quality continues to improve, and we expect this to
persist in 2016. We acknowledge that credit quality (particularly, local credits) has not fully
recovered post-recession and that there are problem areas on the horizon. However,
assuming that the Fed tightens at a reasonable pace and the US economy continues to
grow at a measured pace, we do not envision widespread municipal credit trouble in 2016.
That said, if and when the next recession materializes, current problem areas or issues
could worsen.
4 December 2015
74
FIGURE 9
Ratio of Moodys upgrades to downgrades (%)
FIGURE 10
Quarterly state tax revenues, y/y change (%)
Ratio (%)
% chg
400%
15
350%
10
300%
250%
200%
Source: Moodys
1Q15
3Q14
1Q14
3Q13
1Q13
3Q12
1Q12
3Q11
1Q11
3Q10
1Q10
3Q09
1Q09
1Q08
3Q15
4Q14
1Q14
2Q13
3Q12
4Q08
4Q11
-20
1Q11
-15
0%
2Q10
50%
3Q09
-10
1Q08
100%
3Q08
-5
150%
At the state level, overall municipal credit quality has improved gradually. Revenues have
generally risen in an environment of low economic growth. According to data from the
Rockefeller Institute of Government (RIG), with the exception of a few quarters, total state
revenues continue to exhibit y/y growth on an unadjusted and an inflation-adjusted basis
(Figure 10). Key state debt metrics have also demonstrated modest improvement
although median debt service ratios are up slightly over the past three years, key metrics,
including tax-supported debt per capita and debt as a percentage of personal income have
fallen (Figure 11).
At the local level, overall municipal credit quality trends have been mixed. RIG data show that
the four-quarter moving average of local tax collections rose 1.5% in 2Q15 (inflationadjusted); this is weak versus historical averages, but is still an improvement compared to
recent quarters. Local government data from Moodys show that debt measures are modestly
weaker. However, operating revenues have risen in the past few years and fund balance levels
have also improved, with fund balance ratios (as a percentage of revenue) largely steady or
posting slight improvement in some cases (Figure 12).
FIGURE 11
State debt metrics
FIGURE 12
Local government fund balance ratios
Median Net Tax Supported Debt per
capita - RHS
Median Net Tax Supported Debt as %
of Personal Income - LHS
%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
2011
Source: Moodys
4 December 2015
2012
2013
2014
%
$
29%
$1,140
$1,120
$1,100
$1,080
$1,060
$1,040
$1,020
$1,000
$980
$960
$940
28%
27%
26%
25%
24%
23%
22%
21%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
Source: Moodys
75
Key themes
Against this backdrop, we believe investors should monitor the following key themes that
could pose risk and/or create opportunities in 2016:
4 December 2015
Commonwealth of Puerto Rico Financial Information and Operating Data Report, November 6, 2015.
76
FIGURE 13
Aggregate funded ratios (under GASB 25) and CRR
projections
Funded Ratios under GASB 25
Baseline CRR Projections
Alternative CRR Projections
Ratio
110%
105%
100%
FIGURE 14
Aggregate funded ratios, under riskless discount rate
Ratio
110%
100%
102%
90%
95%
90%
80%
86%
70%
85%
80%
51%
50%
70%
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Source: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College
59%
60%
74%
75%
70%
40%
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Recalculating at a lower discount rate: For the funded ratios in Figure 13, future payment
streams are discounted using rates equal to long-term expected rates of return (7.6% in
2014), which might make the picture seem better than it is. Recalculating liabilities with a
5% discount rate, CRR data show that funded ratios decrease markedly across the board
(Figure 14). However, trends still point to stabilization in recent years.
A bottom-up perspective
Although a top-down view of pension trends suggests possible stabilization, relying on a
birds-eye view of pensions would be superficial. In our view, in 2016, investors should also
monitor pensions from a bottom-up perspective by following certain credits:
New Jersey: In June 2015, the NJ Supreme Court ruled that state pension contributions are
not contractually protected. The ruling effectively allowed the Governors decision to cut
pension contributions to balance the FY15 budget and provides additional flexibility for
pension contributions. In our view, the ruling helped alleviate near-term liquidity and
budgetary pressures, though it creates uncertainty with regard to long-term unfunded
liabilities. In early September, unions petitioned the US Supreme Court to hear the case.
In a separate case, the NJ Supreme Court will determine whether the states 2011 COLA
reforms are allowed a decision could be rendered in early 2016. Previously, the states
appellate court ruled that COLAs were contractually protected, overturning a lower courts
decision. Investors should continue to track NJ pension litigation in 2016, as developments
will affect the unfunded liability picture down the road.
Pennsylvania: The last time pension reform was implemented was in 2010 via Act 120,
which put in employer contribution collars, modified benefits for new employees, and made
other changes to help amortize unfunded liabilities over 24-30 years. Moodys believes that
the state might struggle to adhere4 to its contribution schedule, thereby putting further
pressure on its unfunded liabilities.
In mid-2015, lawmakers advanced a pension reform proposal that would move new
employees to defined contribution plans. This was vetoed by the Governor, who subsequently
put forward a different plan (which included a hybrid option) that did not appear to gain
consensus. The latest tentative framework for ending the states budget impasse reportedly
4
4 December 2015
Moody's revises Pennsylvania GO outlook to negative; affirms Aa3 rating, Moodys, October 16, 2015.
77
Pennsylvania Budget Standoff Continues Into Holiday Season, With Much At Stake For Taxpayers, Forbes, November
23, 2015
6
Constitution of the State of Illinois, Article XIII, Section 5. Pension and Retirement Benefits.
4 December 2015
78
FIGURE 15
General Fund Reliance on Oil Revenues
FIGURE 16
Oil and gas personal income (% of total personal income)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
AK
LA
NM
ND
OK
TX
OK
TX
AK
LA
NM
ND
US
Source: Moodys
Source: Moodys
That said, the low oil price environment will likely continue to create uncertainty for oil
states budgets in 2016. For the coming year, investors may wish to follow names such as
Louisiana and Alaska for potential rating actions. It is unclear what rating agencies next
steps will be, though both names have negative outlooks at Moodys and S&P.
Effects on toll roads: Average retail gas prices are meaningfully lower than in past years and
are likely to remain low for the time being. This could boost the number of drivers on the
road and the number of miles driven, providing a tailwind for toll road use. Figure 17 shows
US retail gas prices versus y/y change in vehicle miles travelled. Unsurprisingly, the figure
suggests an inverse relationship between gas prices and miles travelled, though there are
(admittedly) other factors that complicate the relationship.
We believe toll roads could continue to benefit from the low gas price environment in 2016.
Low gas prices could encourage leisure drivers to drive more, boosting general road
(including toll road) use. Low gas prices may also have the effect of increasing traffic on
non-toll roads, causing some commuting drivers to shift to toll roads for shorter trip times.
FIGURE 17
Inverse relationship between gas prices and vehicle miles traveled (VMT)
$/gallon
4.0
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
-5.0%
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
4 December 2015
79
A joint resolution is not to be confused with a concurrent resolution or a simple resolution. If approved, a joint
resolution would have the force of law, while concurrent and simple resolutions would not. See About Congressional
Bills from gpo.gov for more details.
8
GOP leader predicts budget deal; Wolf says, 'Close', The Philadelphia Inquirer, November 6, 2015 and Pennsylvania's
budget moves forward, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, November 9, 2015.
4 December 2015
80
Puerto Rico
Upcoming PR debt service payments are uncertain: On December 1, the GDB announced
that it paid all principal and interest payments dueon certain outstanding GDB notes.
Additionally, the press release indicated that the commonwealth would begin to redirect
certain available revenues assigned to certain public corporations (exercise the GO clawback).
As a reminder, revenues that could be subject to the clawback include certain taxes and fees
at PRHTA, PRIFA rum taxes, and PRCCDA hotel room taxes.
In terms of the next steps, market participants are focused on the status of the January 1 debt
service payments. Figure 18 shows our estimates of large debt service payments at select
entities; smaller payments are excluded.
FIGURE 18
Estimated major debt service payments for select entities (GO, GDB, COFINA, PBA, HTA,
ERS, and PRIFA)
Date
Jan 1, 2016
9
10
4 December 2015
Pennsylvania budget fights bottom line, as usual: taxes, WFMZ 69 News, November 29, 2015.
Illinois governor tours Q-C, promotes agenda, Quad-City Times, October 26, 2015.
81
The January 1 and February 1 debt service payments are mainly coupon payments; larger
debt service payments (which include principal) will occur later in the year (July 1).
We continue think it very likely that the January 1 and February 1 GO, COFINA, and PBA
(Commonwealth-guaranteed) debt service payments will be made. The Working Group
has said it will reflect, and seek to respect, Constitutional priorities for payment of the
Commonwealths public debt, suggesting that GO (and potentially Commonwealthguaranteed debt) could fare better than other parts of the debt stack. Pledged revenues to
COFINA do not constitute available resources of the Commonwealth, per legal opinions
from the Secretary of Justice, Bond Counsel, and Underwriters Counsel (though this could
be challenged).
As discussed above, Governor Padilla has stated that the commonwealth would begin to
claw back revenues assigned to certain entities; this is in line with our prior expectations
(click here and here). Given this development, we reiterate our view that certain debt service
payments (such as PRHTA and PRIFA rum tax payments) are subject to greater uncertainty.
PREPA and PRASA: We exclude PREPA and PRASA debt service payments from the figure
above, as these two entities are in unique situations. PREPA is further along in its
restructuring process than other entities, as it recently signed a restructuring support
agreement with the Ad Hoc Group of Bondholders and fuel line lenders, thereby formalizing
its prior agreements; a comprehensive restructuring now hinges on PREPAs discussions
with the monolines. PRASA was excluded from the FEGPs $18bn debt service number and
is viewed as stronger among the public corporations; the entity attempted to bring a deal in
the fall and has said it may attempt to do so again. PRASA recently negotiated a maturity
date extension (to February 29, 2016) of $75mn in certain privately placed senior lien
revenue bonds.
Relative value
Given rich valuations and potential pressures from rates, it will, in our view, be somewhat
difficult to find numerous attractive relative value opportunities in 2016. Hence, investors
should spend extra time sourcing alpha. Going into 2016, we do not see much value in AA
credits and find better opportunities further down the credit spectrum. We believe the
muni yield curve is likely to flatten as the Fed begins its tightening cycle and favor long
bonds and/or barbell strategies. Within investment grade, we like toll roads, education,
strong hospitals, and select appropriated bonds, as well as fixed income instruments
wrapped by monolines. Muni HY appears rich, possibly with the exception of MSA
tobacco, and recommend investors look at cuspy BBB/BB-rated credits instead. Finally, in
the taxable space, we see few attractive opportunities. However, some credits that we like
are MEAG and Santee Cooper, callable BABs, and Chicago Water and Wastewater debt.
82
FIGURE 19
5s30s Municipal Index yield curve
FIGURE 20
10s30s Municipal Index yield curve
bp
bp
180
110
175
105
170
100
165
160
95
155
90
150
85
145
140
Dec-14
Feb-15 Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
80
Dec-14
Oct-15
Feb-15 Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15 Oct-15
10s30s
5s30s
Source: Barclays Risk Analytics and Index Solutions
reached in March. Similarly, the spread between A-rated and AA-rated munis has widened to
65bp after reaching year-to-date lows of 56bp in mid-May. In general, we think investors
should trim exposure to AAs (we would prefer AAAs instead) and focus on cheaper single-A
and BBB credits that should continue improving their credit quality.
Expecting bear-flattening
The muni curve has steepened during 2015 and we see value in longer-dated bonds going
into 2016 (Figures 19-20). Historically, when the Fed tightens, or when interest rates rise,
both the Treasury and muni curves tend to flatten, making longer bonds more attractive on
a relative value basis (Figure 21). Barclays US rates strategists expect a modest bear
flattening in the Treasury curve next year as the Fed begins the tightening cycle.
They project 2y and 5y Treasury yields to rise to 1.65% and 2.25% by end-2016, up by around
70bp and 55bp, respectively, from current levels. Their rate expectations are more moderate at
other points on the curve; 10y and 30y yields are projected to end the year at 2.6% and 3.2%,
up around 35bp and 20bp, respectively. For details, see Global Rates Outlook 2016: A small
step for the Fed, a giant leap for markets, November 19, 2015. If the Fed tightens more
aggressively in 1H16, we should see a more pronounced flattening over the same period.
We believe that the muni tax-exempt curve should bear flatten over the year. The front-end
of the curve is vulnerable, and we recommend that investors extend duration. For those
looking to keep duration in check, we recommend a barbell strategy.
FIGURE 21
Muni and Treasury 5s30s curves during periods of Fed tightening
Date
Dec 86 - Feb 89
-102
-125
Feb 94 - Feb 95
-89
-35
Jun 99 - May 00
-94
-11
Jun 04 - Jun 06
-137
-113
4 December 2015
83
Sector trends
We highlight our views on selected municipal sectors below:
Toll Roads: In relative terms, we prefer longer-dated, higher-quality toll roads. The 20y
AA portion of the toll road subindex looks particularly compelling to us. It has
underperformed relative to the comparably rated, duration-adjusted revenue index; 10y
and 20y single-A toll roads also look attractive, having cheapened over the past year.
Prices of most commodities are widely expected to remain low in the near term.
Demand for oil has been robust year-to-date, but supply remains strong and inventories
continue to rise. This is expected to continue through most of 2016, and barring any
production issues at US refineries, should exert downward pressure on gasoline prices.
We believe toll roads could benefit from the low gas price environment in 2016; they
should also be helped by a mild winter, forecast to result from a strong El Nio effect.
Utilities: As mentioned earlier, the Clean Power Plan was released by the EPA in August
2015. The plan focuses on improving efficiency at existing power plants, substituting
higher-emitting coal-fired power plants with lower-emitting natural gas plants, and
shifting generation to renewable. We favor those utility providers that are better
prepared to meet the plans requirements. Please see the Fundamental Muni Outlook
section of this report for more detail on the Clean Power Plan.
We also like water utilities in California. In April 2015, Governor Brown introduced an
emergency plan to reduce state-wide water consumption by 25% vs 2013. Confronted
with lower consumption, California water utilities have been hiking rates. Although this will
not eliminate the effects of the four-year drought, we think that the current El Nio, which
tends to bring snow and rain to the western part of the US, including California, may ease
pressure to conserve water, helping water and sewer entities in this state.
Education: The education sector has underperformed this year and yields have widened
nearly 51bp since reaching year-to-date lows in early February. On a relative basis, the
sector has also underperformed the municipal bond index; the education index, which
was trading flat to the muni index at the start of the year, now trades nearly 15bp wide
and we find the sector attractive from a relative value standpoint. We are a little cautious
on low-rated higher education credits, but we find compelling value in the 10y AA-rated
and A-rated portions of the education index (Figures 22-23).
FIGURE 22
10y AA education vs. the comparable revenue bond index
YTW (%)
Diff (bp)
Diff (rhs)
Education AA 10y
Revenue Bond Index AA 10y
2.9
2.7
11
2.3
2.1
1.9
1.7
-4
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
4 December 2015
YTW (%)
Diff (bp)
Diff (rhs)
Education A 10y
Revenue Bond Index A 10y
3.4
16
2.5
1.5
Jan-14
FIGURE 23
10y A education vs. the comparable revenue bond index
Sep-15
3.2
60
50
3.0
40
2.8
30
2.6
20
2.4
10
2.2
2.0
Jan-14
-10
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
84
FIGURE 24
PEDFA bonds versus the comparable long muni index
FIGURE 25
CFA bonds versus the comparable long muni index
YTW (%)
PEDFA 5% 2034s
YTW (%)
4.3
4.5
4.3
4.1
3.9
3.7
3.5
3.3
3.1
2.9
2.7
2.5
Apr-14
4.1
3.9
3.7
3.5
3.3
3.1
2.9
2.7
2.5
Apr-14
Aug-14
Dec-14
Apr-15
Aug-15
CFA 5% 2042s
Long Muni Index (22+)
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Hospitals: The investment grade and high yield hospital revenue sectors have generated
year-to-date positive total returns of 3.2% and 5.2%, respectively, on the back of the
Affordable Care Act. We believe that positive effects of the ACA have been mostly priced
in, and expect a much more difficult trading environment for this sector given rich
valuations, and reimbursement pressure from the managed care sector. We still find value
in the AA hospital index, which trades 27bp wide to the tax-exempt revenue index.
Meanwhile, the single-A and BBB rated indices trade at 6bp cheap and 4bp rich to similarly
rated revenue indices. We believe the AA and selected single-A healthcare credits may still
have more room to run, but we would trim exposure to rich triple-B healthcare credits.
4 December 2015
85
FIGURE 26
Muni HY (ex-PR), versus Corporate HY indices
Long US HY (LHS)
US Corp HY (LHS)
Muni HY, ex-PR (RHS)
YTW (%)
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
Nov-14
Feb-15
Aug-15
May-15
FIGURE 27
Muni HY tobacco and healthcare versus Muni HY indices
5.9
5.8
5.7
5.6
5.5
5.4
5.3
5.2
5.1
5.0
4.9
Nov-15
YTW (%)
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
Apr-14
Aug-14
Dec-14
Muni HY, ex-PR
HY Tobacco
Apr-15
Aug-15
Muni HY
HY Healthcare
For tobacco, the sector rallied after the release of positive cigarette shipment volume data
and following the New York attorney generals settlement with Big Tobacco
manufacturers releasing about $550mn that had been trapped in an escrow account. For
the first time in the post crisis era, the MSA tobacco sector is trading through the HY muni
index as yields have rallied to an 18-month low. At current levels, we believe that most of
the good news is priced in. However, if positive trends in cigarette shipments continue,
tobacco yields could move even lower; alternatively, if the pickup in shipments reverses,
tobacco bonds could underperform next year. Even in the best case scenario, we think the
potential upside for MSA tobacco bonds is capped.
As discussed above, we are worried about the BB portion of the non-profit healthcare
sector, which is vulnerable at current levels, in our view.
Given the general richness of muni HY (ex-PR), investors searching for yield may wish to
consider select cuspy BBBs, ie, the second set of names in the trifurcated market described
earlier. As mentioned earlier, we like Met Pier (McCormick Place) appropriation bonds from a
relative value standpoint. The 5% 2042s trade with a YTW of 4.3%, about 61bp behind longdated BBB names and about 54bp behind the long Illinois index. Opportunistic investors could
consider some Illinois bonds. Much of the negative news has been already priced in. If a
solution to the budget impasse is reached soon, there could be a relief rally in Illinois debt.
Puerto Rico: The HY Puerto Rico index sold off mid-year following the governors declaration
that the commonwealths debt was unpayable and remarks calling for a negotiated
agreement with creditors. PR yields remained elevated thereafter on continued uncertainty
about restructuring outcomes. In our view, uncertainty about outcomes for Puerto Rico is
likely to hang over the HY muni market in 2016. However, we see little to no spillover effects to
the IG and HY muni markets.
We believe that Puerto Rico bonds would remain volatile in 2016, and at times, could look
attractive. Meanwhile, even at current levels we would consider PREPA bonds in the $60s, as
we believe the bonds have upside potential if PREPA is able to reach an agreement with
monoline insurers. We think Puerto Rico will attempt to resolve the PREPA restructuring
process in the near term as it turns its attention to the larger task of restructuring the rest of
the credit complex. We would also consider PRASA bonds; prices might hold up decently in
the near term given PRASAs exclusion from the FEGP debt service number and lower
likelihood of a PRASA restructuring in the near to medium term.
4 December 2015
86
Taxable municipals
As discussed in the taxable return section, we do not expect the overall taxable muni market
to outperform in 2016. We see few attractive opportunities in the taxables, though there are
some pockets of opportunity in some areas:
Callable BABs: Callable Build America Bonds (BABs) are an area we continue to see
value as they provide the potential for yield pickup. Callable BABs look very attractive
compared to bullet BAB structures with similar tenors priced to maturity. The callables
are typically priced to their call date; however, given that an increasing interest rate
environment looks likely next year, and the federal subsidy that comes with the BABs,
the likelihood of these bonds being called is low and they should eventually kick to
maturity, in our view.
Chicago Water and Chicago Wastewater: The yield differential between the bonds and
comparable indices widened, particularly after rating agency downgrades in mid-May. The
bonds currently trade cheap to the long taxable muni index (Wastewater and Water bonds
trade 114bp and 100bp back of the index, respectively) and look attractive from a relative
value standpoint (Figure 30). Additionally, both entities have renegotiated the terms of
their triggered payments tied to swaps and bank loans, mitigating near-term liquidity risk.
Furthermore, the bonds could be treated as special revenue debt in certain scenarios. Both
of these factors should be supportive of yields and help limit potential downside.
FIGURE 28
10y Wrapped Bonds vs 10y Unwrapped Index
FIGURE 29
Long Wrapped Bonds vs Long Unwrapped Index
OAS (bp)
4.8
OAS (bp)
6.5
6.0
4.3
5.5
3.8
5.0
3.3
4.5
4.0
2.8
3.5
2.3
1.8
Jan-15
3.0
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
4 December 2015
2.5
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
87
FIGURE 30
Chicago Water 2040s vs Long Taxable
OAS (bp)
FIGURE 31
MEAG and Santee Cooper versus Long Taxable Muni Index
Diff (rhs)
Chicago Water 6.742% 2040s
Long Taxable Munis
320
OAS, bp
MEAG
400
Santee Cooper
US Taxable Long
120
270
300
90
200
220
60
170
120
Nov-14
Diff (bp)
150
30
Feb-15
May-15
Aug-15
0
Nov-15
100
0
Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15
Source: Barclays Risk Analytics and Index Solutions
MEAG & Santee Cooper: There are some utilities that may be positioned well to tackle
the requirements of the Clean Power Plan. In particular, we like MEAG (Vogtle, Georgia,
Units 3/4) and Santee Cooper (Summer, South Carolina, Units 2/3) bonds, which trade
wide relative to comparable taxable munis. We think the bonds could outperform in the
medium to longer term, assuming no material changes to the Clean Power Plan and on
the back of positive news about agreements between project owners and EPC
contractors reached in late October (Figure 31). Please see the Fundamental Muni
Outlook section of this report for more detail on the Clean Power Plan.
4 December 2015
88
European Strategy
4 December 2015
89
Imbalanced
Removal of the ECB technical at the end of Q1 revealed the underlying weakness of the
Zoso Davies
-IG credit market, which has been weighed down by cross-border issuance, despite a
strengthening of the European economy. The key drivers of supply (US non-financials)
and demand (moderately low credit yields) are unlikely to change without an external
shock; hence, our baseline is that credit markets will remain weak in 2016.
Supply will not slow: Non-financial cross-border supply should constrain the ability
of -IG to outperform in a widening market. More generally, both $-IG and -IG need
higher credit yields to foment demand; if interest rates fail to rise as expected,
spreads can widen further in our view.
soren.willemann@barclays.com
Barclays, UK
More alpha than beta: In our baseline, we expect the Euro Aggregate Corporate
Andreas Hetland
Index to generate excess returns of 160bp (index OAS of 130bp), reflecting carry,
roll-down and new issue performance. However, we expect major divergences at the
sector and ticker level. We favour sectors shielded from the manufacturing,
commodity and EM slow-downs.
All tail, no body: While our baseline forecast is for the index to end 2016 only
marginally tighter, the distribution of potential returns is very fat tailed. To the
downside, US high yield defaults may accelerate or the Chinese economy decelerate
more than anticipated. Conversely, the possibility of further ECB asset purchases,
possibly including corporate bonds, creates an upside tail risk for excess returns
that will hang over the market.
FIGURE 1
Barclays 2016 -IG excess returns forecasts
Baseline
Upside
Downside
EUR Corp
1.6%
2.9%
-0.7%
EUR Industrials
1.5%
3.0%
-1.0%
Indu - AA
1.0%
1.4%
0.3%
Baseline
Upside
Downside
Indu - 1-3y
1.1%
1.8%
0.1%
Indu - 3-5y
0.5%
1.8%
-1.2%
Indu - 5-7yr
1.9%
3.6%
-0.6%
Indu - A
1.2%
2.3%
0.0%
Indu - 7-10yr
2.1%
3.6%
-1.6%
Indu - BBB
1.8%
3.1%
-2.3%
Indu - 10-20yr
2.3%
5.0%
-2.0%
FIGURE 2
Key investment themes for -IG
Strategic theme
Investment implications
-IG can't decouple from $-IG without a regime shift in supply and/or demand for credit
4 December 2015
90
Baseline
Upside
Downside
GDP (yoy)
1.6
1.6
2.0
1.0
CPI (yoy)
-0.1
0.9
1.3
0.6
V2X
20.4
24.0
20.0
35.0
Lending Standards*
-0.6
3.0
0.0
12.0
Inflation Expectations
1.0
1.0
1.4
0.9
Observed
(EoM)
Baseline
Upside
Downside
Euro IG
130
125
110
170
Euro IG - Indu
132
135
100
180
OAS
Indu - AA
78
75
70
95
Indu - A
102
100
80
130
Indu - BBB
163
160
135
240
Indu, 1-3
115
115
80
170
Indu, 3-5
113
130
95
175
Indu, 5-7
144
135
105
180
Indu, 7-10
144
135
115
185
Indu, 10+
148
140
115
180
Note: *Lending standards enter the model with a 3 quarter lag. Source: EoM data from Bloomberg; Barclays Research
FIGURE 4
Our model suggests that spreads have limited upside, despite the recent widening
OAS, bp
500
400
300
200
155
125
110
100
0
-100
04
05
06
Difference
07
08
Regression
09
10
Euro IG
11
12
13
Baseline
14
15
Upside
16
17
Downside
4 December 2015
91
FIGURE 5
Volatility picked up significantly in 2015
100
FIGURE 6
The Q effect could re-emerge if EGB yields continue to fall
V2X
3.5
90
Range
80
Median
Yield (%)
2.5
70
60
1.5
50
40
0.5
30
20
10
-0.5
Jan-14
0
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Germany
'15
Jul-15
France
Spain
Our US colleagues have written in detail about the headwinds to $-IG performance, and a
simple cross-check with our dashboard (Figure 7) supports the view that the US market is
veering towards late-cycle dynamics. In our baseline scenario, we expect the backdrop for
risk taking to be similar to 2015, with volatility remaining high over the year as a whole and
a number of peaks and troughs keeping spreads elevated (Figure 5). Though sources of
volatility are likely be centred outside Europe, we believe there are mechanisms that can
transmit these headwinds to the -IG market in particular cross-border issuance.
The downside scenario we envisage involves a broadening of the US HY default cycle into
sectors other than commodity credits, either as a result of a general downturn in the global
economy or of tighter USD funding conditions perhaps prompted by significant outflows
from the HY bond market in response to rising default rates. This is far from the firming US
GDP and credit growth forecast by our US economics and US HY teams.
Upside risks seem more numerous but less dramatic, generally consisting of a gradual unwind
of factors that drove spreads wider in 2015. For example, a rebound in commodity prices
would ease concerns with respect to energy, mining and EM credit risk. Hence, the upside
scenario would severely challenge our Overweight call on banks as they have not priced in
much of a risk-premium related to these factors. More specific to -IG, the Q bid for credit
could return after its unexpected exit at the end of Q1. EGB yields are a key determinant of
appetite for credit from rates investors (Rebasised, 25 September 2015) and with EGBs
nearing levels that have been important in the past (Figure 6), a further decline could result in
a renewed bid for short-dated, high-quality credit. Alternately, though very unlikely in our
view, the ECB could bypass the market and buy corporate bonds directly.
FIGURE 7
Our macro-risk dashboard is flagging that US credit is in the later stages of the cycle
Trigger
Current
Flag
3m Flag
SPX
Flat or falling
No Trend
Green
Green
SPX Vol
Trends higher
Rising
Red
N/A
Lending Standard
Trends higher
Rising
Red
Red
Leverage
Trends higher
Rising
Red
N/A
1yr Rates
Trends higher
No Trend
None
None
Flattening
Flattening, slowly
Red
N/A
Indicator
1y10y Rates
Note: For details of our Macro indicators and their trigger levels, see: The macro trend is your friend, 3 October 2014.
Source: Barclays Research
4 December 2015
92
FIGURE 8
2015 performance was defined by underperformers
Count
100
FIGURE 9
resulting in a year where credit selection was king
GLENLN
AALLN
90
VW
80
RWE
70
BHP
60
50
ENELIM
40
UCGIM
30
FGACAP
20
BRITEL
10
THAMES
0
<-7.5 -7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 > 2.5
Note: YTD Excess returns, by ticker. PECI Ex. Sub. Source: Barclays Research
4 December 2015
-20
-15
-10
-5
Note: YTD Excess returns, ex. Sub. Min 2.5bn MV. Source: Barclays Research
93
FIGURE 11
but insurance and pension fund demand remains weak
bn
60
300
bn
40
200
20
100
-20
-100
-40
PF & INCO
4 December 2015
Q1 14
Q1 13
Q1 12
Q1 11
2016*
2015*
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
Q1 10
-60
-300
Q1 14
-200
94
Issuance is coming
We forecast a sharp rise in -IG issuance next year, led by European banks. Our
headline forecast is 570bn of gross supply (+200bn net), skewed towards financials
(310bn gross, +70bn net) over non-financials (260bn gross, +130bn net). By all
measures and in all dimensions, this would be a sizeable increase relative to 2015
(+14% gross, +133% net), particularly on the financial side where net issuance is
expected to swing from negative to positive. Within non-financials, cross-border
issuance is likely to be the key driver of net issuance again, with European activity
dominated by refinancing.
European banks are the key driver of rising issuance within our framework. Specifically,
we expect them to refinance all of their maturing marketable securities next year in
some form or another. This would be a significant departure from recent years during
which they paid down 1.2trn of bonded debt, according to our estimates. To achieve
this shift, European bank net issuance will have to rise by more than 170bn versus
2015, with most of the adjustment likely to be felt in unsecured markets (from -70bn
to +70bn).
Cross-border issuance, specifically from US industrials, has been the key theme in
European primary markets this year. Non-European issuers have been attracted by a
combination of low all-in coupons, tight funding spreads (on an unswapped basis) and
the opportunity to broaden their investor base in a year when the $-IG market was
flooded by a record volume of supply. This trend is unlikely to abate in 2016, in our
view. Our US colleagues expect issuance from non-financials to be roughly flat next
year (-3% y/y), driven by a range of factors including M&A. Further, it appears likely
that the Fed will be hiking rates throughout 2016, which should result in higher yields
and higher coupons on $-IG bonds relative to equivalent -IG securities.
For full details of our 2016 Investment Grade supply outlook, please refer to: Issuance
is coming, 13 November 2015.
Barclays 2016 -IG issuance forecasts
2015 (est)
2016 (est)
y/y
Gross
Redemp.
Net
Gross
Net
Gross (%)
310
240
70
250
-70
24%
Non-Fin
260
130
130
250
130
4%
Total
570
370
200
500
60
14%
Note: Forecasts are Barclays Research; bn amounts rounded to nearest 5bn, bn amounts rounded to nearest
2.5bn. Source: Dealogic, Barclays Research
4 December 2015
95
300
200
370
262
50
10
40
30
20
10
253
188
184
122
100
0
2019
No exemption
Source: Barclays Research
4 December 2015
FIGURE 13
Heavy CoCo supply did not dent historical returns
2.5% exemption
2022
Statutory subordination
0
2012
CoCo supply (LHA)
2013
2014
CoCo TR (RHA)
2015 YTD
PE Bank Sub TR (RHA)
Note: Total returns prior to 2014 omitted due to lack of outstanding CoCos.
Source: Barclays Research
96
FIGURE 14
The slow-down in global manufacturing
normalized diffusion
index, 3mma
1.5
FIGURE 15
... has been reflected in regional performance
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-2
-1.0
-4
-1.5
-2.0
-6
-2.5
-3.0
-3.5
4 December 2015
-8
Jan-14
15
Jul-14
US
Jan-15
Euro area
Jul-15
UK
LatAm
97
FIGURE 16
Sector geographic exposures, by revenues
100%
Euro area
75%
Other Europe
50%
US
25%
LatAm
Asia
Utility, Distributors
Utility, Electric
REITs
Transportation Services
Supermarkets
Insurance, Life
Wirelines
Utility, Other
Media Non-Cable
Building Materials
Banking
Construction Machinery
Energy, Integrated
Automotive
Pharmaceuticals
Insurance, P&C
Chemicals
Industrial Other
Diversified Manf.
Retailers
Tobacco
0%
Other
Note: Exposures based on equal-weighted ticker-level disclosure for the Pan European Credit Index, FY14. Source: Company reports, Bloomberg, Barclays Research
This is pushing down on the life span of companies. A 2012 report by the consulting firm
Innosight noted that the average company remains in the S&P500 for c.18 years, down
from more than 30 years in the mid-90s (Figure 17). Much of this shortening is likely to be
attributable to M&A activity, but from an investors perspective this is still a risk: a 30y bond
issued today is unlikely to be an obligation of the same company at maturity. In general, we
wonder if long-dated credit should carry more risk premium, over the full credit cycle.
Power generation is a good example of this effect; power plants are huge capital projects
that take decades to repay their initial investment, leaving them exposed to regulatory and
technological shifts, as well as the unexpected decline in heavy manufacturing (Figure 18).
This has been reflected in the performance of credits such as Areva and RWE among the
worst performing non-commodity credits this year. In our view, Transportation and Utilities
are the two sectors most exposed to the risk of rapid business transformations, given that
their projects have high up-front costs and long pay-off time horizons. We are Underweight
Utilities due to the structural pressures faced by core generation assets, which are no longer
offset by valuations on peripheral issuers (European Energy & Utilities: Outlook and top
ideas for 2016, 2 December 2015). On a one year horizon, however, we are more positive on
Transportation in light of the sectors strong domestic operational focus.
FIGURE 17
The average tenure of S&P 500 companies has fallen sharply
Average tenure in S&P500 (years)
250
mn TOE
240
61
60
230
220
50
210
40
200
30
190
25
18
20
180
170
Industry
160
10
Residential
150
0
1958
1980
4 December 2015
2012
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
70
FIGURE 18
Annual demand for electricity has collapsed in Europe
98
Commodities: Its not over until its over (and then its over)
Within investment grade credit, it is often the case that the worst performing sectors of a prior
period become the best performing credits in the future. Outsized examples of this mean
reversion include US issuers during the sub-prime crisis, which underperformed peer credits
by -810bp from July 2007 to March 2009, then outperformed by a cumulative +1424bp from
April 2009 and Jan 2013. This pattern has been repeated in both financials (versus nonfinancials) and peripherals (versus core) in recent years as the global-financial crisis evolved
into the euro area sovereign crisis (Figure 19). While these examples are extreme, we think the
general point that IG sector performance tends to be mean reverting is valid. The key proviso
to this observation is that not all of the securities that underperform benefit from this mean
reversion; several may be downgraded to HY before the cycle turns.
In 2015 a new theme emerged: the end of Chinas investment-driven growth model and
with it the commodities super-cycle. Reflecting the collapse in base-metal prices, the Metals
& Mining sector has underperformed by -1211bp since July 2014 and is now the widest
trading of all sectors that we rate. Based on prior credit cycles, this suggests that the Metals
& Mining sector will, eventually, become a source of outsized positive returns, but not yet.
FIGURE 19
Major credit performance cycles since 2007
Start
End
Excess
returns (bp)
Underperform
01-Jul-07
31-Mar-09
-810
Outperform
01-Apr-09
31-Jan-13
1424
Investment theme
US vs Europe
Start
End
Excess
returns (bp)
Underperform
01-Apr-10
30-Sep-12
-880
Outperform
01-Oct-12
30-Sep-15
1117
01-Jul-14
31-Oct-15
-1211
Investment theme
Peripheral vs Core
Fin vs Non-Fin
Underperform
01-Jul-08
31-Dec-11
-1691
Outperform
01-Jan-12
30-Sep-15
1291
Underperform
4 December 2015
99
FIGURE 20
The mining sector cycle likely has further to run
500
FIGURE 21
Index exposure is concentrated in BHP, Glencore and Anglo
Metals &
Miners
40%
35%
30%
25%
-500
20%
15%
-1,000
10%
-1,500
0
10
15
US vs Europe
Peripheral vs core
20
5%
0%
VALEBZ
RIOLN
AALLN
GLENLN
BHP
Note: Market Value weights in PECI Metals & Mining. Source: Barclays Research
FIGURE 22
Energy has outperformed the Metals & Mining sector
600
OAS, bp
OAS, bp
FIGURE 23
supported by optimism over the future price of oil
160
150
500
140
400
130
Price, $/bbl
60
55
120
300
110
200
100
100
0
Jan-15
65
50
45
90
80
Apr-15
Jul-15
4 December 2015
Oct-15
Energy (RHA)
40
0
20
WTI
40
60
Brent
100
4 December 2015
101
FIGURE 24
European Investment Grade sector ratings
Index Weights
OAS
(bp)
OAD
Barclays
Index Rating
Barclays
Sector
Rating
Chemicals
97
5.0
A2/A3
UW
1.1%
0.0%
80.7%
0.0%
30.1%
3.7%
4.6%
16
Finance Companies
103
6.0
A1/A2
1.5%
2.6%
2.6%
0.0%
5.7%
10.3%
38.4%
Pharmaceuticals
105
7.5
A1/A2
2.2%
0.0%
30.4%
5.4%
24.9%
9.7%
23.0%
14
Aerospace/Defense
106
5.9
A2/A3
UW
0.2%
0.0%
52.3%
0.0%
24.9%
0.0%
33.9%
107
6.5
A2/A3
MW
2.3%
1.2%
47.1%
0.7%
48.4%
0.0%
13.1%
24
Diversified Manufacturing
109
5.9
A2/A3
UW
1.2%
0.0%
54.9%
2.6%
20.4%
0.0%
4.0%
17
Consumer Non-Cyclical
111
6.6
A2/A3
UW
7.2%
1.4%
38.7%
1.8%
40.2%
2.9%
18.6%
63
Total
113
6.0
A1/A2
100.0%
7.4%
30.9%
5.6%
34.1%
10.3%
22.3%
Banking
117
4.6
A2/A3
OW
21.9%
7.8%
37.6%
0.6%
25.4%
22.2%
16.3%
88
Building Materials
121
4.4
BAA1/BAA2
UW
0.9%
12.3%
70.5%
0.0%
93.2%
0.0%
9.7%
10
Retailers
121
9.0
A1/A2
MW
0.6%
0.0%
17.1%
0.0%
41.5%
0.0%
55.1%
Energy
124
5.9
A2/A3
UW
3.0%
22.5%
47.9%
0.6%
17.5%
9.8%
11.7%
16
Transportation Services
128
6.3
BAA1/BAA2
OW
2.5%
22.9%
35.1%
0.0%
78.3%
3.2%
29.9%
33
Media Entertainment
138
5.8
BAA1/BAA2
MW
0.7%
0.0%
53.9%
0.0%
100.0%
5.6%
12.4%
14
Utility
139
6.8
BAA1/BAA2
UW
7.7%
32.4%
29.7%
1.1%
69.8%
6.6%
42.5%
57
Wirelines
141
6.7
BAA1/BAA2
OW
4.4%
16.7%
42.0%
0.0%
88.6%
5.0%
26.5%
16
Supermarkets
142
4.8
BAA1/BAA2
MW
0.9%
2.0%
86.8%
0.0%
81.3%
0.0%
10.0%
Automotive
145
4.3
A3/BAA1
UW
3.5%
4.3%
75.6%
0.0%
36.7%
6.8%
13.7%
23
REITS
156
6.3
A3/BAA1
1.9%
2.3%
49.2%
0.7%
57.3%
3.2%
29.2%
35
Wireless
158
5.5
A3/BAA1
1.0%
0.0%
2.2%
51.5%
64.2%
8.6%
30.3%
Insurance
246
6.4
A3/BAA1
MW
4.4%
8.4%
44.8%
0.7%
53.0%
69.1%
35.0%
50
434
5.6
A3/BAA1
MW
1.1%
0.0%
0.0%
4.5%
58.0%
8.8%
21.1%
Sector
Index weight
Peripheral
Core
EM
BBB
Sub
GBP
Number of
issuers
4 December 2015
102
FIGURE 25
CDS-cash basis dropping in a weakening market, reflecting
cash underperformance
30
95
25
85
20
75
65
55
-5
4 December 2015
Jun-15
Sep-15
iTraxx Main
85
-10
25
Sep-14
Mar-15
90
10
Dec-14
-5
35
Cash equiv
Spread
95
15
45
FIGURE 26
as investors increasingly use iTraxx Main as a way to
access beta in IG credit, adding risk longs over the year
80
75
70
-15
65
-20
60
-25
55
-30
Nov-13
May-14
Nov-14
All series
May-15
Main
50
Nov-15
Note: Showing amount of protection bought (positive) or sold (negative) by nondealers across all series of iTraxx Main. Source: DTCC, Barclays Research
103
FIGURE 27
iTraxx Main has maintained its ability to act as a
transmission mechanism for risk
9
8
FIGURE 28
but its popularly long makes structural issues in singlename CDS markets and balance sheet constraints evident
8
5
4
-2
-4
-6
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jun-13
Aug-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
May-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Widening
Tightening
4 December 2015
-8
-10
Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Jul-14 Dec-14 May-15 Oct-15
Source: Barclays Research
104
Our forecasts for the Euro Aggregate cash indices (Figure 3).
An assumption that CDS will outperform cash by c.10bp (half as much as in 2015).
An assumption that index-skew will remain at -5bp (iTraxx Main) and -3bp (SenFin).
Interpretation of results
With our forecasts for cash indices and assumptions for CDS made above, there are a
number of implications for our forecasts for Main and SenFin (Figure 29).
In our baseline, Main will be at 65bp EOY16, and 50bp in our upside scenario, but 95bp
in the downside.
In line with our assumption that industrial spreads will not move much, the majority of
our assumed tightening in Main in the baseline case, some not from the NonFin part,
but from our assumption of financial cash outperforming next year. In fact, we estimate
that SenFin will be at 50bp 15bp inside Main in our baseline case.
FIGURE 29
Spread forecasts for CDS indices
FIGURE 30
SenFin-Main recent evolution and in EOY 2016 scenarios
Actual
Baseline
Upside
Downside
Main
70
65
50
95
SenFin
69
50
45
75
Cross
292
310
260
410
Key RV measures
SenFin-Main
-2
-15
-5
-20
Cross/Main
4.16
4.77
5.20
4.32
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Main
-5
-20
+25
-20
SenFin
-19
-24
+6
Cross
+18
-32
+118
-30
Jan-13
Jan-14
SenFin-Main
SenFin-Main
-14
-4
-19
Cross/Main
+0.61
+1.04
+0.16
4 December 2015
-5
-10
-15
-20
Jan-15
Baseline
Jan-16
Upside
Jan-17
Downside
Note: The Baseline and Upside scenarios coincide. Source: Barclays Research
105
Zoso Davies
oversupply. Issuance volumes were unusually low in 2015 and we have pencilled in a
similarly light supply calendar for 2016 which, coupled with steady demand, augers well
for performance relative to both - and $-IG. That said, we are concerned that activity
levels are too low to ensure the long-term vitality of the -IG bond market.
A rare specimen: Unlike its larger cousins, we believe that supply and demand are
broadly in balance for -IG. This has been achieved via depressed primary market
volumes, which significantly undershot our forecasts in 2015. Having found a
semblance of balance, we expect the market to revert to more normal dynamics:
with coupon inflows and a steady trickle of investment from life assurers and
pension funds supporting spreads.
andreas.hetland@barclays.com
Barclays, UK
A prisoners dilemma: The success of sterling asset managers in growing their assets
under management long ago outstripped the -IG markets capacity to absorb them.
While broader mandates bring advantages in terms of risk diversification, liquidity
and market capacity for investors, the shift of activity into USD and EUR markets
detracts from -IG liquidity, both in primary and secondary markets. The importance
of matching adjustments under Solvency II will only add to the already challenging
liquidity profile of sterling credit.
Upside
Downside
GBP Corp
2.3%
3.8%
-2.8%
GBP Non-Fins
1.6%
4.0%
-4.7%
Baseline
Upside
Downside
1-3yr
1.5%
2.1%
0.6%
3-5yr
2.4%
2.7%
0.8%
5-7yr
2.3%
3.3%
0.3%
AA
1.4%
2.6%
-1.3%
7-10yr
2.1%
3.4%
-2.3%
1.9%
3.4%
-2.5%
10-20yr
2.6%
4.6%
-5.3%
BBB
2.7%
4.4%
-3.5%
20yr+
2.7%
4.9%
-6.2%
FIGURE 2
Key investment themes for -IG
Strategic theme
Investment implications
Balanced technicals
... weak supply can be met by stable demand
A prisoners dilemma
... investors seek liquidity in $-IG and -IG
Voter fatigue
... UK is likely to vote on its future in the EU
4 December 2015
106
FIGURE 3
We expect supply to remain modest
80
FIGURE 4
while demand has been recovering, albeit gradually
bn
Fin
Non-Fin
70
20
bn
15
60
10
50
5
40
30
20
-5
10
-10
4 December 2015
2016*
2015*
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
07
08
09
Life Assurance
10
Retail
11
12
13
P&C Assurance
14
15
Pension Funds
Total
107
108
Multi-coloured swap-shop
Another facet of Solvency II that has probably not received the attention it deserves is the
choice of discount curves. Because Solvency II is based on the Libor curve, the matching
adjustment mechanism heavily incentivises receiving swaps over holding gilts. This has
resulted in a dramatic tightening of government bond asset swaps, particularly at the long
end (ie, government bonds have underperformed the Libor curve). Swap spreads now trade
negative in both USTs and Gilts beyond tenors of 5-10 years. Given that, in theory, Libor
represents an unsecured borrowing rate for banks, this is historically unusual.
That said, this reversal of the normal risk hierarchy has been a well-known feature of the
ultra-long gilt market for many years, usually explained with reference to LDI hedging
activity versus the Libor swap-curve. This suggests that the growing influence of Solvency II,
combined with the constrained balance sheets of non-Solvency investors, can explain much
of the recent movements in global government asset swaps. Given the price-insensitive
nature of these flows, and the inability of other investors to oppose them, our rates team
does not expect swap spreads to widen meaningfully in the near term.
All of the preceding arguments should, at least in theory, apply equally to corporate credit.
Hence, Solvency-based investors are likely to use the swap curve, rather than the gilt curve,
as their benchmark for measuring credit spreads from the start of next year. This would
make credit significantly more attractive, as much of the spread tightening versus gilts in Q4
has been offset by the tightening of swap-spreads: the credit spread to Libor (L-OAS) has
rallied significantly less than the spread to Gilts (OAS) (Figure 8). This should be supportive
of demand for -IG from Solvency II investors at the beginning of 2016 (as valuations have
not richened much within the Solvency II framework). It is also positive for performance as
measured in excess returns, as swaps are unlikely to give back their gains versus gilts,
keeping OAS spread relatively tight.
More generally, and on a positive note, while Solvency II investors may shift a significant
portion of the investor base toward L-OAS metrics as a measure of credit valuations, we
believe retail money will remain primarily benchmarked versus gilts. The result is, therefore,
a broader variety of investor opinions on credit valuations, which would benefit market
formation and liquidity. Yield, OAS and L-OAS based investors are a healthy mix of valuation
perspectives, which should support differentiated investment activity.
FIGURE 5
Gilt swap-spreads have tightened
FIGURE 6
exaggerating spread widening versus the swap curve
YTD
change, bp
190
bp
180
170
-5
160
-10
150
-15
140
-20
130
-25
120
-30
110
Jan-15
-35
5y
Source: Barclays Research
4 December 2015
10y
30y
Apr-15
OAS
Jul-15
Oct-15
Libor-OAS
109
FIGURE 8
hence, the GBP appears overvalued, given its recent
strength
YTD change(%)
60
20
55
50
15
45
10
40
35
30
0
25
20
-5
15
10
Jan-14
Jul-14
Remain in EU
4 December 2015
Jan-15
Leave EU
Jul-15
Jan-16
Undecided
-10
Jan-15
GBPUSD
Apr-15
Jul-15
GBPEUR
Oct-15
GBPJPY
GBPAUD
Source: Bloomberg
110
Mediocre expectations
Tobias Zechbauer
+44 (0)20 7773 6790
tobias.zechbauer@barclays.com
Barclays, UK
Soren Willemann
+44 (0) 20 7773 9983
soren.willemann@barclays.com
Barclays, UK
James K Martin
+44 (0)20 7773 9866
james.k.martin@barclays.com
Barclays, UK
While we see support for European high yield based on ECB monetary policy, we are
cautious on macro trends and technical factors. Upside should be modest and
returns lower, due to idiosyncratic headwinds and some spill-over effects from the
Fed hiking cycle.
We forecast 2016 excess returns of 3-4% for European High Yield, translating into a
total return of 1-2% taking into account our expectation of moderately rising rates.
High yield spreads are slightly wider in our baseline scenario. We forecast a year-end
OAS of 455-475bp for the Barclays Pan European HY ex-Financials index. This
equals a spread widening of about 25bp from current levels.
Better quality bonds (BBs) should outperform in spread terms, as lower quality
should suffer more from the slight index widening that we foresee.
Fundamentals for the index have been marginally deteriorating over the year.
Favourable lending conditions during the past few years lead to a slight increase in
leverage, and interest cover decreased modestly. We see a softening in EBITDA
margins, but not to the extent that there is a major change in our view based on the
overall bottom-up data.
2016 will likely have bifurcated trends affecting European high yield: on the one
hand are some tailwinds from the ECB, while on the other are headwinds from the
Fed hiking cycle. We expect those two main drivers to be overlaid by uninspiring
technical trends.
We forecast a 1.75-2.75% issuer-weighted default rate for HY bonds in 2016 (1.52.5% par weighted) still near historical lows, but slightly higher than the current rate.
While loose monetary policy should keep defaults lower, the reduction in primary
liquidity for highly leveraged securities could spell trouble for issuers that need to tap
the high yield market.
We expect slightly lower gross bond issuance in the European high yield market in
2016. Euro-equivalent volumes from corporates should be 75-85bn, down 5% over
the year, including 50-60bn in euro, about 10bn in sterling, and about 15bn in
USD. We foresee positive net issuance that will lead to continued index size growth.
Demand for European high yield remains dominated by mutual funds. We do not
anticipate significant directional fund flows, though we note the risks inherent to
retail-driven demand. We expect overall demand growth to remain low, and see a
supply-driven demand in 2016.
We believe the strong run of CDS relative to cash in HY will come to an end in 2016,
with many of the drivers for the drop in CDS-cash basis being weakened; if anything,
the basis appears biased to increase. Coupled with a more conservative view on HY
cash relative to IG cash, our forecasts for iTraxx Cross imply a decompression vs.
iTraxx Main in all scenarios for year-end 2016.
4 December 2015
111
FIGURE 1
European high yield annual returns with 2016 forecast
25%
FIGURE 2
2010-15 cumulative returns by fixed income asset class
+59%
80%
20%
73%
70%
15%
10%
60%
5%
50%
0%
47%
44%
37%
40%
-5%
-10%
30%
-15%
20%
-20%
2016
YTD 2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
Spread Return
32%
27%
21%
10%
-31%
-25%
35%
0%
Europe US HY
HY
EM Europe US IG
US Global US Tsy
Hard
IG
Munis Agg
Ccy
FIGURE 3
Percentage of par trading to its next call
40%
35%
30%
25%
FIGURE 4
Starting yield versus realized total return by year
12M Total Return
40%
30%
20%
20%
10%
15%
0%
10%
2012
2006
2015
2016 Est
-10%
4 December 2015
2005
19992010
2004
2013
2014
2007
2011
2002
2001
2000
5%
0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2003
-20%
0%
5%
10%
Starting YTW
15%
20%
Note: Chart does not show 2008 and 2009 outliers. Source Barclays Research
112
Baseline
Upside
Downside
1.5
1.6
2.0
1.0
CPI (%,y/y)
0.1
1.0
1.3
0.6
24 (V2X)
Similar
Slightly lower
Higher
-6
Broadly
unchanged
Unchanged
Tighter
Inflation Expectations
1.0
Stable
Slightly higher
Slightly lower
OAS (bp)*
440
455-475
360-380
530-550
Volatility
Note: * Pan European High Yield ex Financials index. Source: Barclays Research
In our view, volatility will be similar going into 2016. On the one hand, continued ECB
purchases will suppress it. However, this is likely to be offset by macro risks such as
geopolitical influences and some spill-over effects from the hiking cycle in the US. The
model inputs for our baseline scenario are summarized in Figure 5.
4 December 2015
113
FIGURE 6
Barclays Pan-Euro HY ex-Financials Index OAS with forecast
OAS (bp)
900
FIGURE 7
B/BB spread ratio with forecasts
2.6
2.4
800
700
2.2
600
2.0
500
1.8
400
1.6
300
1.4
200
1.2
100
0
'06
'07
'08
OAS
Source: Barclays Research
'09
'10
'11
'12
Post-Crisis Tights
'13
'14
'15
'16
Pre-Crisis Tights
1.0
2009
2013
2014
2015 2016
Baseline
Downside
In combination, these inputs lead us to derive a year-end 2016 spread forecast for the
European high yield cash market of 455-475bp. This represents only a small amount of
widening relative to current levels, still comfortably wider than the post-crisis tights (Figure 6).
By quality segment, we believe that the B/BB spread ratio will move slightly up, to about 2x
in our baseline forecast. In spread terms, we expect an outperformance of BBs vs. the lower
rating buckets. BBs are disproportionately held by investment grade managers, owing to the
presence of numerous large fallen angels and other national champion issuers. The
current share of BBs in the European high yield ex-Financials index is more than 60%. This
is a significant portion of the market taking into account the different buyer base of this
segment. We expect the demand from IG managers to support the BB rating bucket.
For 2016, we foresee that the accommodative ECB technical will not extend into the B and
CCC rated portion of Euro high yield, as IG managers typically do not hold credits below the
BB rating bucket. As a result, the spread pickup for moving down in quality from BBs to Bs
surged over the past 12 months to levels more than two standard deviations away from the
average ratio that has prevailed during the post-crisis period (Figure 7). For 2016, we expect
the lower rating bucket to widen more than the overall index. A decent performance on the
excess return side is still possible, driven solely by carry. In our view, only an upside scenario
involving greater-than-expected growth and inflation will be sufficient to make lower quality
outperform on a spread basis.
4 December 2015
114
FIGURE 8
Current and forecast Bund curve
FIGURE 9
Current and forecast US Treasury curve
%
%
1.5
3.0
10y
+ 40bp
1.0
2.5
2y
+ 70bp
2.0
5y
+ 40bp
0.5
2y
+20bp
0.0
10y
+ 60bp
5y
+ 70bp
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
0
2
Current
6
8
Q4 2016 Forecast
10
2
Current
8
6
Q4 2016 Forecast
10
As a starting point, we use the current index yield of 5.1% for the Pan European High Yield
ex-Financials index and then subtract 100bp for credit losses by taking the midpoint of our
1.5-2.5% par-weighted default forecast and a blended recovery rate of 45% (see the
ensuing section on fundamentals for details behind our default outlook). Our modest
spread widening forecast of 25bp translates into 90bp of index price deterioration taking
into account the index duration, and new issues contribute another 20bp through the
realization of new issue premiums and higher carry relative to market averages. Summing
up these factors results in excess returns forecasts of 3-4% for European high yield in 2016
(Figure 10). Using interpolated data from Figure 8 and again taking into account the index
duration, we arrive at a total return forecast of 1-2% in our baseline scenario.
FIGURE 10
2016 excess and total return forecast
Excess and Total Return Decomposition
Baseline
Upside
Downside
Starting Yield
5.1
5.1
5.1
Default Losses
-1.0
-.70
-3.2
-0.9
2.8
-3.7
0.2
0.2
0.15
3-4%
7-8%
-1-2%
1-2%
6-7%
-1-0%
455-475
360-380
530-550
4 December 2015
115
The upside scenario: Positive news from growth and ECB tailwinds lead to
tighter spreads
While the somewhat uninspiring growth forecasts in our baseline scenario would likely
prove insufficient to drive a significant rally in European HY spreads, a persistently dovish
ECB could plausibly jumpstart GDP and inflation more dramatically than we anticipate.
Indeed, our Equity Strategy team cited Continental Europe as having the best prospects for
EPS expansion in its 2016 outlook Under new leadership. Chief among their reasons for
optimism is the continued depreciation of the euro; our FX team sees EURUSD hitting 0.95
by Q3 16. The avoidance of deflation, coupled with less-than-expected volatility effect from
Fed rate hikes, could lead to another year of European HY credit outperformance.
The persistence of low commodity prices should also prove beneficial to European high yield.
Unlike the US market, European high yield issuers do not have the same exposure to the energy
sector. In fact, the retail and autos sectors, which comprise a significant part of the Pan-European
index, likely benefit from these depressed prices; in our 2016 Commodity Markets Outlook: A
drawn-out bottom, we forecast only a $2/bbl increase in the price of oil through Q4 16.
Further depreciation in oil and the euro, coupled with some ECB-inspired growth, could push
GDP growth to 2% and drive inflation north of 1%. In this scenario, investors would once
again find some of the best global credit performance in the European high yield market. If all
these conditions arise, we forecast excess returns similar to 2013 levels of 7-8%.
ECB tailwinds likely will not extend into lower-rated high yield
In theory, ECB support affects investment grade rated bonds and pushes some of their
investors out to the BB segment in search for yield. With the BB rating bucket accounting for
about 60% of the market value of European high yield, the asset class overall should receive
a small technical benefit. However, in 2015, accommodative ECB policy did not have the
same positive effects on total returns as in the previous year, especially in investment grade.
While the ECB technical is certainly not a negative, demand from outside traditional high
yield investors appears to have already saturated the market.
4 December 2015
116
FIGURE 11
Monthly returns for US HY and PE HY
FIGURE 12
Rolling 12m correlation between US HY and PE HY
10%
1
0.9
y = 0.95x
0.8
0%
0.7
-5%
4 December 2015
2015
2014
2013
2012
10%
2011
5%
2010
0%
US HY TR
Last 10 years
From Jan '14
2009
-5%
2008
0.5
2007
-10%
-10%
0.6
2006
PEHY TR
5%
117
FIGURE 13
Fundamental trends for European high yield corporates
14%
12%
10%
FIGURE 14
Bank lending standards vs. stressed bonds
5.0x
30
4.0x
25
8%
3.0x
6%
2.0x
1.0x
4%
2%
0%
2010
2011
2012
Net debt/EBITDA
2013
EBITDA/interest
EBITDA margin
Source: Moodys Financial Metrics, Barclays Research
4 December 2015
0.0x
2014
Tighter
(looser)
Lending
Standard
% of issuers
with bonds
below 70
30%
25%
20
20%
15
15%
10
10%
5%
0%
-5
-5%
-10
2007
2009
2011
% bonds px <70 (RHA)
Source:
-10%
2013
2015
Lending Standard (LHA)
118
FIGURE 15
Sector returns for European high yield 2014 vs. 2015 YTD
10%
2015 (YTD)
Total Returns
2014
FIGURE 16
Euro high yield total returns by rating quality bucket
2015 YTD
Energy
Basic Industry
Capital Goods
-5%
PE HY x Fin
-10%
Comms
0%
Healthcare
-6%
Autos
5%
Utility
-2%
Retailers*
10%
Cons. non-cyc*
2%
Transport
15%
Cons. cyc*
6%
2015 (YTD)
20%
2014
-10%
-15%
BB+
BB
BB-
B+
B-
4 December 2015
119
FIGURE 17
Key statistics for industries covered by our fundamental research analysts
Sector Statistics
Industry
Barclays % of Total
Avg
Sector
Market YTW OAS
Credit
(%) (bp) OAD Rating
Rating
Value
Relative Valuation1
Strategy Considerations
% Call
Constr.
Total
vs Index vs Model
Return
%
Peripheral OAS2
OAS3 Breakeven4
100%
4.4
420
3.7
BA3
18%
33%
73%
4.6
440
3.7
BA3
23%
27%
8%
3.2
325
3.4
BA3
27%
39%
Automotive
UW
-115
Basic Industry
MW
6%
4.6
473
3.5
BA3
17%
9%
33
-3
(1)
Capital Goods
MW
13%
4.2
422
3.3
BA3
20%
39%
-18
26
(11)
Communications
OW
-11
17%
4.3
406
4.6
BA3
18%
41%
-34
Energy
UW
1%
11.0 952
5.1
BA2
0%
58%
512
MW
2%
4.4
406
2.7
B1
40%
7%
-34
Gaming
OW
2%
5.0
486
3.1
BA3
33%
30%
Healthcare
MW
3%
4.8
473
2.9
B1
42%
2%
Leisure
UW
1%
6.1
567
2.5
B2
40%
24%
Other Industrial
MW
2%
5.9
582
2.9
B1
23%
18%
Retailers
MW
2%
7.0
637
3.8
B1
34%
Transportation
MW
2%
5.0
497
3.1
B2
36%
27%
4.0
368
3.8
BA2
5%
50%
2%
7.0
633
3.6
B2
41%
OW
-19
(42)
(6)
127
-81
(9)
46
37
12
33
16
127
49
59
143
-21
46
0%
197
14
65
0%
57
-7
14
16%
265
82
Note: Relative value versus the benchmark index (PEHY ex-Fins Index/PEHY Financials Index for Debt Collectors). Calculated as sector OAS minus benchmark OAS,
not quality adjusted. 3Calculated as sector OAS minus the sectors aggregate modelled OAS, based on our proprietary high yield spread model. 4Calculated as the
amount of relative spread (tightening)/widening required to achieve the same total return as the index, offsetting the current difference in yield. 5Energy sector
recommendation refers to the Repsol hybrids, which are the major constituent of the sector. Source: BRAIS, Barclays Research
120
FIGURE 18
Major sectors with 12- and 24-month spread ranges
OAS, bp
1,000
800
600
400
200
Automotive
(BA3/B1)
Communications
(BA2/BA3)
Capital goods
(BA2/BA3)
Utility
(BA2/BA3)
Consumer Non-Cyc*
(B1/B2)
Basic Industry
(BA2/BA3)
Healthcare
(BA3/B1)
Transportation
(B1/B2)
Retailers*
(BA2/BA3)
Consumer cyclical*
(B1/B2)
Energy
(BA2/BA3)
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
exception of Finmeccanica, while the more cyclical names can be reasonably expected to
remain volatile.
For 2016, we expect global demand to remain sluggish. Investment trends are set to remain
relatively weak, albeit varying by geography (the US has more upside potential) and subsector (defence to benefit from increased budgets relative to previous assumptions, in view
of a perceived increase in the security threat). Additionally, industrial sectors of key
emerging markets such as China and Brazil are expected to remain weak. We expect input
costs to remain muted, assuming the continuation of a low energy cost environment, which
is especially supportive of sectors such as building materials. Pricing is expected to remain
weak, reflecting a still relatively deflationary environment, with the exception of certain
markets (eg, US construction). The volatility that the sector experienced is set to persist,
which, given the highly diversified international footprint of constituents, adds an element
of uncertainty to translated earnings. The low growth environment could encourage further
restructuring, consolidation and portfolio management initiatives. The higher quality BB
names are particularly well positioned to consider M&A opportunities, following the
consolidation across the cement sector that has had both positive (Lafarge returned to IG)
and negative (HeidelbergCement remains stranded at BB+) consequences.
Our fundamental analysts, Darren Hook and Maggie ONeal, have a Market Weight rating
on the sector. However, the sector is very fragmented and single credit trajectories matter.
121
122
123
y/y growth
250
200
60%
100
50%
90
40%
80
30%
20%
150
10%
100
0%
50
2016*
Market Value (LHA)
4 December 2015
Volume (bn)
70
60
50
40
30
-10%
20
-20%
10
-30%
FIGURE 20
European HY bond annual issuance by currency
124
Upcoming maturities and the share of debt that is callable over the next year are
approximately in line with last years figure.
Bond-to-bond refinancing is less attractive than last year and could slightly reduce the
share of callable debt that opportunistically refinances.
We expect a lower share of loan-to-bond refinancing after the revival of the CLO market
and solid demand for loans in this segment.
The current yield differential in high yield between Europe and the US will make the
European market more attractive for issuers. However, there is only a limited set of
companies that tap both markets; thus, we expect a limited effect.
The expected start of the Fed hiking cycle in December should drive volatility higher,
which would affect the US as well as Europe. As a result, market access could become
slightly more difficult during specific periods.
4 December 2015
125
High M&A volumes have already been financed, lower activity expected
M&A activity has moved broadly sideways during 2015, along with LBOs. Even IPO activity
has failed to pick up, despite the ramp-up in stock market valuations during H1 of this year.
The key constraint remains the lack of growth prospects, with global GDP forecasts
consistently revised lower over 2015. Corporate activity is likely to remain lacklustre until
the outlook for economic growth improves materially, so we forecast a similar amount of
M&A/LBO activity in 2016. In addition:
While volumes have not picked up, spreads have been more responsive to corporate
actions. This is notable, as corporate activity has been focused upon ratings defence
and synergy extraction, neither of which is as negative for credit spreads as overtly
leveraging transactions. The announcement and execution (or not) of disposals will be a
key focus for stressed credits in particular, in the mould of Repsol and Tesco.
Synergy extraction is likely to remain a significant part of the rationale for M&A.
Against a backdrop of weak top-line growth, bottom-line growth will need to come
from margin expansion. Synergy-generating mergers are one way to pursue this. We see
these deals as negative for credit from two perspectives. First, credit markets remain
unreceptive to primary issuance; hence, supply associated with corporate activity is
likely to pressure secondary spreads. Second, over the long term, we question whether
corporate management is being too optimistic: realised synergies tend to disappoint
once a deal is consummated, which may pressure credit spreads 12-18 months later.
M&A activity by sector was driven by Industrials, Real Estate, and Pharmaceuticals
during the year. The outlook across sectors is predominately influenced by large single
deals. Looking at the number of already announced transactions, the Industrial sector
and Real Estate are likely to remain at the forefront.
The LBO market has been a touch more active in Europe this year but the volumes
remain low compared with pre-crisis levels. While funding availability is not an issue,
three key headwinds have constrained volumes: strong strategic M&A and IPO markets
and challenging LBO deal economics. We do not see catalysts for these headwinds to
disappear and expect LBO volumes to remain subdued in the coming months.
IPOs have not accelerated this year, despite the sharp rise in European stock prices in
H1. This may reflect the transitory nature of their gains so far, but based on the historical
relationship, we would have expected IPO volumes to be 40bn higher this year.
Stabilisation in risk assets may bring out more deals in Q4, but if that fails to materialise,
owners may pursue trade sales (ie, M&A) over IPOs as their preferred exit strategy.
FIGURE 21
Annual M&A activity involving European companies
2.0
$trn
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
4 December 2015
126
Rising stars and fallen angels not a big driver of index structure changes
Downgrades have slowed dramatically over the past year as the headwinds of recession and
European sovereign downgrades have abated. Earnings growth appears to have finally
turned the corner in Europe and non-financials continue to reduce gross debt positions in
aggregate. Against this backdrop, rating upgrades have outnumbered downgrades over the
past twelve months, in both IG and HY.
However, the pool of potential rising stars has been thinned by previous migrations to IG.
Further, although we can identify only a few potential fallen angels, the relative size of their
capital structures outweighs that of the rising star candidates. Hence, despite the positive
momentum in the European economy, we expect fallen angel volumes (10-15bn) to
outweigh those of rising stars (5-10bn) next year.
In our view, 2016 fallen angel volumes will likely stem from larger capital structures coming
under ratings pressure for idiosyncratic reasons; we do not expect a broad de-rating of
European credit next year. At the same time, the measured growth that our economists
forecast is unlikely to be enough to foster a large number of upgrades. With only a few
previously IG peripheral credits expected to return to IG this year, rising star volumes are
also likely to be anaemic. The clearest risk to our forecasts is if commodity prices fall further,
resulting in one or more large commodity credits being downgraded to high yield. While
many issuers would suffer in this scenario, a name such as Anglo American seems most at
risk in the view of our analysts. Given the volume of indexed bonds outstanding (8bn), this
would be a significant index transition, similar to Tesco in 2015 (9bn).
FIGURE 22
Rising star and fallen angel candidates covered by our
analysts
2016 non-financial rising star candidates
FIGURE 23
Annual European rising star/fallen angel volumes (with
2016 forecast)
30
ENELIM (hybrid)
ENEL SPA
FNCIM
Finmeccanica Finance SA
HEIGR*
Heidelberg-cement AG
LHAGR
Deutsche Lufthansa AG
PEUGOT
Banque PSA
-10
TKAAV (hybrid)
Telekom Austria AG
-20
TTMTIN*
-30
UPMKYM
UPM-Kymmene Corporation
TDCDC
TDC A/S
Note: *Denotes that the timeframe for an IG upgrade exceeds the 12-18 month
horizon. Source: Barclays Research
4 December 2015
20
Volume
(bn)
10
-40
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
Fallen Angels
Rising Stars
Forecast Range
127
HY Financials
300
250
200
150
100
"Core" HY Corporates
50
B3 and below/Distressed Issuers
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Difference
FIGURE 26
Annual cumulative European HY fund flows (excluding ETFs)
8
7
2014
2015
28%
32%
4%
2%
1%
-1%
Insurance/Pension Funds
25%
25%
0%
IG Funds
15%
18%
3%
Hedge Funds
15%
12%
-3%
CLOs
5%
4%
-1%
Other
10%
8%
-2%
4 December 2015
Flows($bn)
6
5
3
1
-1
-2
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
Source: EPFR
128
Liquidity preference
One interpretation of the index being tighter than intrinsics, which are in turn tighter than
cash (the basis) is that of liquidity preference: the index is the most liquid, followed (for
some names) by single-name CDS, then cash. The widespread use of the index and its
liquidity is illustrated well by the strong relationship between fund flows and changes in
investor positioning in Cross. We analyse these linkages in detail in European Credit Alpha,
23 October 2015, showing that HY fund trading activity in Cross (as a substitute for cash
bond investments) is a material driver of overall investor positioning in Cross.
FIGURE 27
CDS-cash basis turned even more negative over the year,
driven mainly by weakness in cash
520
0
-20
480
-40
440
-60
400
-80
360
-100
-120
320
Spread
400
375
350
325
300
275
-140
280
240
Jan-15
FIGURE 28
whereas there has been reduction in off-the-run index
short-risk positions in Crossover
Mar-15
May-15
4 December 2015
Jul-15
Sep-15
Cross
-160
-2
-180
-4
Nov-14
Nov-15
HY ex-fin
250
225
Feb-15
All series
May-15
Aug-15
On-The-Run
Nov-15
Cross
129
Convexity
One oft-cited reason for the negative basis is that with risk-free yields low, many bonds are
trading to next call already, so mechanically the bond spreads cannot tighten. This makes
CDS (loosely interpreted as a bullet bond) more appealing as a long risk position for a
particular catalyst, justifying a negative CDS-cash basis. We illustrate such an example for
SUNCOM (Figure 31); following the announcement of an IPO, CDS tightened, but the 18s
bond was already trading to its next call, so mechanically could not rally.
On the hedging/negative basis side, few investors are interested in buying a callable bond
and buying protection to the call date, as this is a negatively convex trade: on the tightening
side, as in the example above, and on the widening side with the risk of a non-call of the
bond and the CDS maturing.
FIGURE 29
Positioning in Cross, as well as skew, suggests large
inflows/outflows affect demand for protection
300
200
Skew chg, bp
Investors increase sell Cross
protection to put large
inflows to work
100
FIGURE 30
HY CDS curves are often steeper than cash curves
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-100
-2
-200
-300
-3
-4
0 to
10 to 20 to 40 to 60 to 80 to 90 to
10%
20%
40%
60%
80%
90% 100%
Weekly retail fund flows, percentile buckets
Note: See European Credit Alpha, 23 October 2015, for a full description of the
methodology employed. Source: EPFR, DTCC, Barclays Research
4 December 2015
60
Curve (bp)
50
40
30
20
10
0
TITIM SHAEFF FCAIM TSCOLN MTNA TKAGR FNCIM
Cash 4s5s curve
130
FIGURE 31
CDS often have superior convexity properties
Price
108.0
107.5
107.0
106.5
-16
-12
105.5
104.5
-18
-14
106.0
105.0
FIGURE 32
A CDS-cash basis decrease is often related to bonds trading
above par, but the relationship currently is tenuous
-10
Call Price
-8
-6
104.0
Jun-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Feb-15
SUNCOM 8 1/2 18s
5yr CDS (RHA, Inverted)
Source: Barclays Research
80
60
Basis (bp)
40
% of names
trading above 110
(reversed scale)
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
-120
-140
30%
Sep 12 Mar 13 Sep 13 Mar 14 Sep 14 Mar 15 Sep 15
CDS-cash basis
% of HY bonds trading above 110
Source: Barclays Research
In general, the convexity argument relates to risk-free yields being low and, in turn, bond
prices high. While this was an important factor previously, with the rebound in risk-free
yields in H2 15 and general sell-off in HY credit, the proportion of HY bonds trading at a
price above 110 has decreased materially (Figure 32) and is below 10% currently.
Our rates strategists expect the 5y Bund to end 2016 at +20bp vs. -20bp currently (Figure
8); if that comes to fruition, the convexity argument would be even less relevant.
Interpretation of results
With these assumptions, we present our forecasts for Cross in Figure 33. We derive three
key points from them:
In the upside scenario, Cross can reach 260bp, around the tights in H1 15, whereas spreads
could reach 410bp in our bear case, similar to the peak in the September 2015 sell-off.
4 December 2015
131
In all scenarios, we expect the Cross/Main ratio to increase: Cross will likely compress vs
Main (Figure 34). This is driven partly by our assumptions in cash markets that IG will
tighten marginally (driven by financials) and HY will be marginally wider, but also by our
assumption that the CDS-cash basis for IG credit (currently hovering around zero) could
move negative in 2016. As discussed above, we see limited scope for the CDS-cash
basis to drop materially in HY, leading us to expect Cross/Main to increase in 2016.
FIGURE 33
Spread forecasts for CDS indices
FIGURE 34
Cross/Main: Recent evolution and in year-end 2016 scenarios
Actual
Base
Faster recovery
Downside
Main
70
65
50
95
Cross
292
310
260
410
4.16
4.77
5.20
4.32
Ratio
Cross/Main
-5
-20
+25
Cross
+18
-32
+118
+0.61
+1.04
+0.16
Cross/Main
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.77
4.5
4 December 2015
4.32
4.0
3.5
Jan-13
Note: This figure has the same content as Figure 29 in the European HG section
for Main and Cross, but reproduced here for convenience.
Source: Barclays Research
5.20
Jan-14
Cross/Main
Jan-15
Base
Jan-16
Upside
Jan-17
Downside
132
basis in our base case for 2016. We expect loan spreads to widen, given the stretched
relative value versus European HY bonds and US loans, as well as the potential for a
negative CLO-loan feedback loop driven by the CLO market indigestion. That said, we
do not see conditions for a large sell-off thanks to stable fundamentals, a low expected
default rate, neutral net supply and a sticky institutional investor base. Even though we
expect some widening in loan spreads in 2016, we think that loans should continue to
look fairly attractive from a risk-return perspective.
The CLO 2.0 era in Europe continues; however, the growth rate of the asset class this
year has disappointed amid the increased market volatility, deterioration in CLO
creation economics and some concerns around the availability of collateral as the
supply in the leveraged loan market also disappointed. Liability spreads widened
even though the collateral quality trends remained stable. We think the supply relief
should come from a widening in leveraged loan spreads.
Total return
8%
43%
15%
10%
10%
5%
FIGURE 2
Year-to-date returns versus comparable asset classes
4%
10%
5% 6% 6%
6%
9%
4%
6%
4%
1%
0%
2%
-1%
-5%
-10%
0%
-30%
-15%
-2%
4 December 2015
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
-20%
Jan
Jul
133
FIGURE 3
Euro leveraged loans versus single-B bonds
13
FIGURE 4
European versus US leverages loans
Yield (%)
1,100
12
1,000
11
900
10
9
800
700
7
6
600
500
4
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
PEHY ex-Fin B
Note: For loans we calculate yield as a sum of the average 3-month discount
margin in the S&P ELLI index and 5-year EUR swap rate. For HY we use yield-toworst. Source: Barclays Research
400
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
US lev loans
and concerns around EM growth intensified. As a result, we are currently looking at one of
the worst relative valuations in loans versus bonds in the post-crisis period.
The relative value versus US leveraged loans looks equally unattractive. The US LLI index now
offers a discount margin of 615bp, ie, 80bp above the level offered by the ELLI Index (Figure 4).
The weakness in the US was driven by a combination of a sell-off in US HY and a deterioration in
loan supply conditions, partly related to a significant slowdown in CLO formation in H2 15.
4 December 2015
134
Leveraged loans
2016 forecast
3yr DM
Price
3yr DM
Price
Total return
535bp
97.0
585
96.0
2.5-3.5%
FIGURE 7
Loan index sector breakdown
100%
90%
Industrial
Equipment,
3%
80%
70%
60%
Telecommu
nications,
3%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2010
2011
BBB
2012
BB
2013
CCC
2014
CC-D
2015
NR
Note: Breakdown by facility rating. Source: S&P CIQ LCD, Barclays Research
4 December 2015
Containers
& Glass
Products,
4% Publishing,
4%
Electronics/
Electric, 5%
Cable
Television,
12%
Sub 3%
sectors,
24%
Healthcare,
12%
Business
Equipment
& Services,
11%
Food
Products,
6%
Chemical &
Plastics, 8%
Retailers
(Other than
Food &
Drug), 8%
135
FIGURE 9
Loan supply by purpose
160
Volume, bn
140
10%
120
100
8%
80
6%
60
40
4%
20
2%
2010
4 December 2015
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
LBO
M&A
Refinancing
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
0%
2009
Recap
136
FIGURE 10
European leveraged loan primary market share
FIGURE 11
Institutional loan primary market share
100%
100%
80%
80%
60%
60%
40%
40%
20%
20%
CLO Managers
Finance Companies
European Banks
Non-European Banks
Insurance
Credit Funds/SMAs
Institutional Investors
Securities Firms
Mezzanine Funds
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2008
2007
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2008
2007
2006
2005
2006
2005
0%
0%
driver behind the relatively low volatility of loan returns this year. As mentioned above, while
we do not expect the stickiness of the investor base to drop in the foreseeable future, we are
concerned about the recent weakness in CLO issuance. As we detail in the CLO Outlook
section below, the recent drop in CLO formation has put the European CLO market back on a
declining trajectory. Should that dynamic continue, with CLO 2.0 supply unable to make up for
CLO 1.0 amortisations, the demand for loans would suffer.
PE HY ex-Fin B
PE HY ex-Fin BB
Yield
5.5%
6.2%
3.6%
1.8%
3.4%
2.4%
3.0
1.8
1.5
Ratio
For loans we calculate yield as a sum of 3-month discount margin and 5-year EUR swap rate.
Source: Barclays Research
4 December 2015
137
FIGURE 13
European CLO supply
120
Volume, bn
35
100
30
80
25
4 December 2015
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
CLO 1.0
2009
2008
2007
20
2006
10
2005
40
2002
15
2004
60
20
2003
40
FIGURE 14
The size of European CLO market
CLO 2.0
138
FIGURE 15
European CLO notional in reinvestment phase
100
FIGURE 16
CLO liability spreads vs. collateral spreads
240
DM (bp)
DM (bp)
600
90
80
70
220
550
200
500
180
450
60
50
40
30
20
10
1.0
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
160
Jan 13
400
Jul 13
Jan 14
Jul 14
Jan 15
Jul 15
2.0
The widening in CLO liability spreads has been driven primarily by the weakening relative
value from the AAA investors perspective. US CLO AAAs widened substantially in H2 15
together with the broader leveraged markets in the US amid the commodity rout (Figure
17). During the same period, corporate credit spreads doubled and recent primary activity in
other ABS asset classes also saw wider levels. The widening in European AAAs in that
context is not surprising and they are unlikely to tighten without a meaningful turnaround
in the markets relevant to the AAA investors.
An area from which relief is more likely to come is collateral spreads. As we noted in the
European Leveraged Loans section above, we expect loan spreads to widen in 2016 (we
forecast 50bp widening from current 535bp as a base case), given the stretched relative
value versus HY bonds and US loans as well as the potential for a negative CLO-loan
feedback loop driven by the CLO market indigestion. A moderate widening like this would
improve CLO economics and should be a positive for CLO creation. We think that the recent
widening of new issue spreads in the leveraged loan market signals that the adjustment is
already under way.
FIGURE 17
US vs. European CLO 2.0 secondary AAA spreads
180
FIGURE 18
CLO collateral default rates
6%
DM (bp)
170
Default rate
5%
160
4%
150
140
3%
130
2%
120
1%
110
100
Apr 13
Oct 13
Apr 14
Europe
4 December 2015
Oct 14
Apr 15
Oct 15
0%
2008
2009
2010
2011
1.0
US
2012
2013
2014
2015
2.0
139
Regulatory crosswinds
A number of regulatory issues still hang over the CLO market in Europe. On the risk
retention front, the focus currently is on the future of the originator structures. The final
draft of the European Commissions STS Securitisation Regulation published in September
was more positive than previous drafts. Assuming that the regulation ultimately turns out to
be supportive (the ruling is expected in mid-2016), the availability of the structure would
create the potential for additional CLO formation from smaller managers. In the meantime,
those willing to use the originator format may be reluctant to come to the market amid
uncertainty about future compliance of their deals.
FIGURE 19
Share of CCC rated collateral
18
FIGURE 20
Collateral rating trends
3,200
16
3,000
14
2,800
12
10
2,600
2,400
6
4
2,200
2
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
1.0
4 December 2015
2012
2013
2014
2015
2,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2.0
1.0
2.0
140
4 December 2015
141
4 December 2015
142
4 December 2015
143
We see bank hybrids as one of the bright spots in credit for 2016 in the US and Europe.
With stagnant global growth and deteriorating credit fundamentals weighing on nonfinancial credit valuations, bank capital has performed well, owing to issuers high
capitalization ratios. This trend should continue in 2016 as superior fundamentals and
likely benign supply/demand conditions drive further spread tightening. We are less
optimistic about US insurance and European corporate hybrids.
US insurance hybrids: Short-call hybrids have dropped nearly 13pts, on average, this
year but should remain under pressure, with many securities still not fully reflecting
extension risk. We believe that the best opportunity in insurance hybrids remains in
the long non-call securities.
European bank capital: We forecast 5.5-7% total returns for European bank AT1
CoCos and 1-2.5% for European LT2s. We think these asset classes are primed for a
continuation of strong performance from 2015, with spreads still looking elevated in
the light of the benign macro outlook for Europe, supportive bank credit
fundamentals and manageable supply.
4 December 2015
144
FIGURE 1
Year-to-date total return
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
Preferreds
USD BBs ex
Energy
USD AT1s
EUR AT1s
USD Bs ex
Energy
EUR B ex Fins
In addition to the better performance of subordinated financials, what is perhaps even more
positive is the significant decline in volatility. As concerns about slowing global growth and
deteriorating credit fundamental have mired non-financial credit valuations, banks have
benefited from a safe-haven status, owing to their strong balance sheet and high
capitalization ratios. This has extended to bank capital securities as well, which is reflected
in a substantial decline in return volatility for preferreds and CoCos compared with HY
bonds (Figures 2 and 3). Comparing CoCos with Bs, while the average volatility of the two
asset classes was similar prior to the summer, it has diverged meaningfully since then as B
valuations have come under pressure from widening in energy credits and idiosyncratic
factors (such as the downgrade of Sprint). In fact, CoCo valuations have remained relatively
stable even in the face of potentially meaningful negative developments for the issuer (for
instance, DB).
We expect CoCo and preferred spreads to rally in 2016, supported by a strong fundamental
backdrop and improving supply/demand technicals. The move in spreads should offset the
expected increase in risk-free yields with both sets of securities generating attractive total
returns. We expect USD CoCos to outperform EUR CoCos and US preferreds in total return
terms. The rally in bank capital securities compared with HY this year means that the basis
between the two has compressed meaningfully. We believe this will reduce the gap in
FIGURE 2
Preferred volatility relative to US BB
8
7
FIGURE 3
CoCo volatility relative to Bs
11
10
9
6
2
1-Jan
20-Feb
11-Apr
31-May
Preferreds
Source: Barclays Research
4 December 2015
20-Jul
US HY BB
8-Sep
4
Jan 15
Mar 15
EUR AT1
May 15
USD AT1
Jul 15
Euro HY Bs
Sep 15
US HY Bs
145
US bank preferreds
As credit spreads widened on the back of elevated supply and concerns about a
deteriorating fundamental backdrop, financials outperformed industrials given lower supply
and significantly stronger fundamentals of the former. The financial-industrial basis
compressed nearly 20bp this year (through November). The outperformance extended to
the subordinated parts of the capital structure with preferreds tightening about 10bp
relative to senior bank debt. Preferreds generated 6% in total returns, significantly higher
than high yield bonds (Figure 1).
4 December 2015
146
FIGURE 4
Preferred yields have compressed versus BBs
FIGURE 5
and BBs ex-energy
6.5%
1.6%
6.5%
6.0%
1.2%
6.0%
5.5%
0.8%
5.5%
1.6%
1.4%
1.2%
1.0%
0.8%
5.0%
0.4%
5.0%
4.5%
0.0%
4.5%
4.0%
Jan-15
-0.4%
4.0%
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Difference (RHS)
Jul-15
Sep-15
Preferreds
Nov-15
BBs
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
Mar-15
May-15
Difference (RHS)
Jul-15
Sep-15
Preferreds
Nov-15
BBs ex Energy
Despite the positive technical and fundamental backdrop, we believe that preferred yields are
unlikely to trade too far inside the current level of about 6%. Valuations are already near the
tighter end of the 6-7% preferred yield range prior to the crisis. While this is justified given the
significantly better credit quality of banks and the lower rates currently (although the
cumulative and dated structure of capita securities issued pre-2008 did afford better
protection to investors), we believe it limits the room for a further rally. As does the relative
year-to-date outperformance of preferreds relative to BBs. The basis between the two has
compressed meaningfully, from as much as 100bp wide earlier in the year to close to zero
now (Figure 4). Even excluding energy credits, the basis between preferreds and BBs has
tightened 80bp (Figure 5). Preferreds still offer better risk-adjusted return than HY, in our view,
but the lower spread pick-up could limit the extent of outperformance in these securities.
With the Fed likely to begin the hiking cycle in December, we would expect the corresponding
sell-off in Treasuries also to keep preferred yields from moving tighter. To be clear, we are not
expecting preferred yields to rise as the Fed hikes tightening in spreads should absorb the
increase in risk-free rates, in our view. While many investors remain concerned about a sell-off in
the space as rates rise similar to the 2013 taper tantrum when institutional securities were
FIGURE 6
Preferred price* vs Treasury yields: May-December 2013
FIGURE 7
Preferred price* vs Treasury yields: 2014-today
Px Change
Px Change
2.0%
2.0%
1.5%
1.5%
1.0%
1.0%
0.5%
0.5%
0.0%
0.0%
-0.5%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.0%
y = -3.1x
R = 15%
-1.5%
-2.0%
-0.2%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
4 December 2015
0.2%
y = -0.45x
R =1%
-1.5%
0.3%
-2.0%
-0.2% -0.2% -0.1% -0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%
10y Tsy Yield Change
*Preferred price based on PGF, an ETF of preferreds.
Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research
147
FIGURE 8
Preferred spreads still appear wide (bp)
FIGURE 9
Preferred/senior spread ratio
4.5
500
475
4.0
450
3.5
425
3.0
400
2.5
375
350
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
PerpNC5
Sep-15
Nov-15
2.0
Jan-15
Mar-15
PerpNC10
May-15
PerpNC5
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
PerpNC10
down about 7pts on average we believe such a scenario is unlikely. The move in 2013 was
driven in large part by very rich valuations going into the summer of that year. Indeed, the
average coupon of US bank PerpNC10 securities issued in Jan-May 2013 was about 5%, nearly
100bp tighter than current levels. This resulted in elevated sensitivity to rates during the MayDecember 2013 period (Figure 6). However, since then, as valuations have normalized, the
relationship between preferred prices and Treasury yields has been much weaker (Figure 7), a
trend we expect to continue next year.
Preferreds also continue to trade significantly wide of senior debt, suggesting that there is
sufficient room for compression in spreads to offset any increase in risk-free yields. The
preferred/senior spread ratio for PerpNC5 and NC10 securities is 4.2x and 2.9x, respectively
(Figures 8 and 9). This is much wider than our fair estimate of 2-2.5x11.
Relative Value
We expect both the NC5 and NC10 securities to generate similar total returns of 5.5-6.5% in
2016. Our rates strategists are forecasting a significant flattening in the Treasury yield curve
as the Fed begins the hiking cycle 5y and 10y Treasury yields are expected to increase by
60bp and 35bp, respectively, causing the 5s10s curve to flatten 25bp. While this exposes
NC5 securities to higher rates risk, they are also significantly cheaper than NC10 paper.
Indeed, short-call preferreds trade nearly 40bp wider, in spread terms, and yield only about
15bp less than NC10 paper despite having five years less to the first call date (Figure 10).
The much higher preferred/senior spread ratio (of more than 4x) means that tightening in
spreads in NC5 securities should be able to offset a move higher in rates.
FIGURE 10
Money-center bank preferred valuations
Price
Yield
Spread
Reset Spread
PerpNC5
$ 99.3
5.8%
430 bp
386 bp
PerpNC10
$ 100.4
5.9%
390 bp
363 bp
In terms of our best picks, we continue to favor high reset preferreds issued by the large
money-center banks. Figure 11 highlight select PerpNC5 and PerpNC10 securities with high
backend spreads.
11
4 December 2015
148
Reset Spread
Price
Yield to Call
Nov-20
L+447.8 bp
$ 101.6
5.7%
PerpNC5
C 6.125
C 5.95
Aug-20
L+409.5 bp
$ 99.4
6.1%
GS 5.375
May-20
L+392.2 bp
$ 99.8
5.4%
GS 5.7
May-19
L+388.4 bp
$ 100.9
5.4%
JPM 5.3
May-20
L+380 bp
$ 100.3
5.2%
MS 5.55
Jul-20
L+381 bp
$ 99.9
5.6%
BAC 6.1
Mar-25
L+389.8 bp
$ 101.0
6.0%
C 5.9
Feb-23
L+423 bp
$ 98.8
6.1%
JPM 6.75
Feb-24
L+378 bp
$ 108.5
5.4%
PerpNC5
Source:
4 December 2015
149
GS
MS
JPM
WFC
BK
BAC
Top 30
1. Inflation in RWAs and assets under the Feds stress test: For a bank that is CCAR
constrained under risk-based capital metrics, an optimized capital structure would
include AT1 capital equal to 1.5% of stressed RWAs. If the Fed might reasonably be
expected to assume a banks RWAs will grow by 10% over the stress horizon, then it
would make economic sense for that bank to maintain AT1 at 1.65% of its fully phasedin RWAs (1.5% x 110%).
Given GS, MS and JPM are now at 1.7-1.9% of RWAs (Figure 12), we believe they have
largely built this buffer already. If other moneycenter banks choose to reach similar
levels, that would imply $5-10bn of issuance above that required to reach 1.5%. CCAR
has been less of a binding constraint for most regional banks and we believe that the
regionals will continue to move toward 1.5% over time. We believe this surplus is likely
to be maintained to the extent that CCAR remains a binding constraint.
2. The first wave of first call dates on preferred securities begins in 2018, and we believe
some issuers may choose to prefund those redemptions to take advantage of the lower
yields. However, not all of these securities will be redeemed on the first call date. We
assume that fixed-for-life securities with a coupon higher than 6.5% and fixed-to-float
securities with a reset wider than 325bp (corresponding to a reset/senior spread ratio of
~2.5x) will be called. Based on the above assumptions, we expect $12-15bn of
redemptions per year in 2018-20 (Figure 13).
4 December 2015
150
FIGURE 13
Likely redemption schedule for preferreds
BAC
$mn
GS
JPM
MS
WFC
Others
14,700
16,000
12,689
14,000
13,990
12,855
11,750
12,000
10,000
8,000
5,900
4,669
6,000
4,000
2,000
1,750
2,600
500
0
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Note: Assumes refinancing of preferreds with coupons at least 6.5% or reset spreads at least 325bp.
Source: Barclays Research
Demand
We expect demand for preferred securities to remain robust. Even though preferred yields
have compressed relative to BBs, we believe the former offer better risk-adjusted returns.
This should keep HY demand for the space elevated. This is especially the case as the
significant commodity exposure of the HY index is likely to keep valuations volatile.
There remains a concern about retail outflows on the back of rising rates similar to the 2013
taper tantrum when, for instance, the shares outstanding of PFF (an ETF of retail preferreds)
dropped more than 23% as Treasuries sold-off. However, given the more attractive
valuations currently, we believe any sell-off/outflows in preferreds on the back of an
increase in yields should be limited. In fact, with yields of 5-6%, the tax-adjusted yield
(accounting for the QDI-treatment) is 6.75-8%, which should be compelling, given the
overall low Treasury yields.
US insurance hybrids
While subordinated financial securities in general have generated attractive returns this
year, this has not been the case for insurance hybrids, particularly short-call paper. As
extension risk concerns have grown, short-call insurance securities have dropped about
13pts on average this year. The two Lincoln National (LNC) hybrids and RGA 6.75s have
been among the worst performers, falling 20pts each (Figure 14). The decline in valuations
is generally in line with our view as we discussed in Insuring Against Extension Risk and
Revisiting Insurance Hybrids: Market Correction Not Enough, we believed insurance hybrids
were not fully reflecting extension risk.
4 December 2015
151
FIGURE 14
Year-to-date price change for select short-call insurance hybrids
$0
-$5
-$10
-$15
-$20
-$25
LNC 7
RGA 6.75
LNC 6.05
SFG 6.9
XL 6.5
HIG 6.505
PGR 6.7
LIBMUT 7
Despite the move lower, we remain cautious on short-call insurance paper in aggregate. We
believe that some of the worst-performing insurance hybrids the two LNC hybrids,
Reinsurance Group (RGA) 6.75s, StanCorp (SFG) 6.9s, and Hartford (HIG) 6.505s are
exposed to further extension risk. They will continue to receive 100% S&P equity
treatment12 even after the first call date and we expect them to be left outstanding, a view
corroborated by recent management commentary. Priced to maturity, the hybrids yield 5.76.3%, corresponding to a spread of 275-325bp. This appears tight on a hybrid/senior
spread ratio basis, suggesting further potential downside for these securities. We also
remain concerned about technicals for the hybrids post-extension. Many of the hybrids are
currently held by insurance companies, and it is unclear if they would be holders of longdated, low-coupon floating-rate instruments. Any ensuing selling could push valuations
below fair value.
Some short-call hybrids do appear cheap on a fundamental basis, although valuations are
likely to remain volatile. For instance, the CB 6.375s, PGF 6.7s and LIBMUT 7s lose S&P
capital treatment on the first call date, increasing the likelihood they are redeemed then.
They offer attractive yield to call but their potential negative convexity the upside if
redeemed is much lower than the downside from extension means that valuations will likely
remain under pressure in the near term. Further, while the XL 6.5% and CGLLN 7.249%
hybrids will likely be extended past the first call date in 2017, we think they could be
redeemed in 2025 and offer attractive yield to call in that scenario.
We believe that the best opportunity in hybrid insurance remains in the long non-call
securities. They offer an attractive spread pickup over senior debt and are obviously not
exposed to the same extension risk concerns like the short-call paper, in our view. This
includes LIBMUT 7.8s, MET 7.875s and 9.25s, and high coupon PRU hybrids.
12
4 December 2015
152
FIGURE 16
Bank LT2s vs. BB non-financials and corporate hybrids
6
-2
-2
-4
Jan
Jul
EUR AT1s
PE HY ex-Fin B
USD AT1s
US HY ex-Energy B
Jan
Jul
Note: LT2s represent a basket of LT2s issued by European banks in the past
three years of at least 500mn in EUR, USD or GBP. PEHY refers to the Barclays
Pan-European High Yield Index. Corporate hybrids denote a broad basket of
European corporate hybrids across currencies. Source: Barclays Research
13
We use a custom LT2 index that combines IG and HY rated bonds issued in size of at least 500mn in EUR, USD or
GBP as a more accurate reflection of the liquid part of the asset class.
14
In relative value versus corporate hybrids we look at the hybrids index excluding story names, ie, the issuers that have
recently seen a large spike in idiosyncratically driven volatility: COFP, ORGAU, REPSM, RWE, STOAU, VATFAL, VW.
4 December 2015
153
12.0%
11.5%
11.1%
11.0%
10.5%
10.3%
10.5%
10.7%
11.7%
11.7%
Q414
Q115
12.0%
12.1%
Q215
Q315
11.3%
10.8%
10.0%
9.5%
9.0%
Q213
Q313
Q413
Q114
Q214
Q314
The most compelling argument in favour of bank debt remains capital and regulatory
scrutiny. Bank capital levels continue to scale new historical highs (Figure 72) and they
remain under constant upward pressure from regulation.
On one hand, the regulators in some jurisdictions have been taking advantage of the macro
prudential tools available under Basel 3. For example, most recently, the Bank of England
has hinted that a lifting of the counter-cyclical buffers may be necessary to curb what
increasingly appear to be excessive levels of lending in the UK. This would put Britain on a
path already taken by Nordic regulators Swedish and Norwegian regulators recently
announced that counter-cyclical buffers will increase from 1% to 1.5% in 2016.
On the other hand, regulators continue to tinker with the capital framework itself. The most
significant changes to the capital regime still ahead are the review of credit risk RWAs,
nicknamed Basel 4, the Fundamental Review of the Trading Book (which is designed to
tackle the market risk RWA framework) and ECB consultation on national discretions in
calculating capital. These reforms are going to increase bank RWAs and reduce the
regulatory capital, negatively affecting capital ratios and, in turn, likely driving a further
build-up in CET1 capital. While this is not great news for bank stocks, for bank debt holders
it means even thicker equity cushions protecting their principal.
4 December 2015
154
Return forecast
Accounting for the above factors (a benign macro outlook for Europe, supportive bank
fundamentals and manageable supply), we believe spreads in European bank capital are
attractive at current levels. AT1 spreads currently at 590bp and 490bp for EUR and USD
AT1s, respectively, are 50bp wide of the levels seen before the summer and more than
100bp wide of the historical tights reached in 2014, prior to the broad high-beta credit selloff in H2 14. At the same time, LT2 spreads at 220bp (for EUR LT2s) are c.35bp wide of the
pre-summer levels.
Against that backdrop, we forecast a tightening in spreads in 2016: 25bp for EUR AT1s,
50bp for USD AT1s and 20bp for LT2s. Note that the stronger tightening in USD is driven by
our expectation of deepening government yield divergence between Europe and the US. We
summarize our implied total and excess return forecasts in Figure 18.
FIGURE 18
Baseline return expectations for European bank capital
Current levels*
AT1s
LT2s
2016 forecast
Spread
Yield
Excess return
Total return
EUR
590bp
6.2%
7.5-8.5%
5.5-6.5%
USD
490bp
6.5%
7-8%
6-7%
EUR
220bp
2.7%
2.5-3.5%
1-2%
USD
260bp
4.6%
3.5-4.5%
1.5-2.5%
GBP
290bp
4.8%
4.5-5.5%
1.5-2.5%
Note: * Current levels as of 27 November 2015.We used average g-spread for USD AT1s, z-spread for other sectors.
Source: Barclays Research
155
20
15
10
5
0
Bank of Ireland
Swedbank
SEB
SHB
Danske
Nykredit
KBC
Nordea
Intesa Sanpaolo
Commerzbank
StanChart
ING
Unicredit
BBVA
RBS
Lloyds
Soc Gen
Rabobank
Credit Agricole
Deutsche Bank
Santander
Credit Suisse
BNP Paribas
UBS
HSBC
Corporate hybrids
Despite a material widening in 2015, we think that hybrids continue to look marginally
expensive relative to peer sectors BB non-financials and bank LT2s. In our base case
for end-2016, we assume a slight widening in corporate hybrids spreads, which implies
an excess return of 2.5-3.5%.
4 December 2015
156
FIGURE 20
YTD total returns in corporate hybrids and peer sectors
6
FIGURE 21
Corporate hybrids (ex-story names) vs. BB non-financials
450
Z-spread (bp)
250
400
4
200
350
300
150
250
200
100
150
-2
100
50
50
-4
Jan
Jul
0
2013
0
2014
Diff
Hybrids "ex-story"
2015
PEHY xF BB
Return forecast
Looking into 2016, given that we are projecting a modest tightening in LT2s and a slight
widening in BB non-financials, in our base case we assume hybrids (excluding the story
names) will widen by 10bp from current levels. We do not think a top-down forecast for the
story hybrid names currently makes sense and we recommend looking at these securities
on a case-by-case basis.
4 December 2015
157
Corporate hybrids*
2016 forecast
Spread
Yield
Spread
Yield
Excess return
Total return
350bp
3.7%
360bp
4.2%
2.5-3.5%
0.5-1.5%
Note: * For the purposes of our projection we exclude the story hybrids from the composite (COFP, ORGAU, REPSM,
RWE, STOAU, VW). Source: Barclays Research
4 December 2015
158
FIGURE 23
Corporate hybrid supply
FIGURE 24
Hybrid redemption profile
Redeemed
Amount issued
Old-style supply
Total (rhs)
15.0
12.5
10.0
100
7.5
50
30
25
-5.0
20
10
-7.5
0
4Q15
2Q15
4Q14
2Q14
4Q13
2Q13
4Q12
2Q12
4 December 2015
4Q11
2Q11
4Q10
2Q10
4Q09
58
50
40
0.0
-2.5
Amount (bn)
60
75
5.0
2.5
70
12
16
8
0
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021+
159
4 December 2015
160
4 December 2015
161
We forecast mild spread compression for Asia credit in 2016 and expect high grade
to outperform high yield. Tightening will likely be driven by the China high grade
component, where strong in-region demand and lower supply should offset macro
concerns. ASEAN high grade is likely to come under pressure as domestic conditions
weigh on credit fundamentals and technicals deteriorate due to higher supply.
China credit makes up 40% of Asia high grade. Expectation of sustained CNY
depreciation versus USD could result in increased in USD balances in China/Hong
Kong, strengthening the demand technicals for USD bonds of Chinese SOEs. In
addition, we do not expect slowing economic activity in China to weigh on the
creditworthiness of high grade issuers, given that they are mostly government
owned and national champions or leaders in their respective sectors. Though credit
metrics may deteriorate, we expect markets to remain comfortable with the
prospects of state support.
Away from China, the borrowing environment is likely to become more challenging,
with tighter lending conditions exacerbated by deteriorating credit fundamentals.
The slowdown in EM Asia growth and reduced inflows into the regions local
currency debt markets have accelerated this shift away from accommodative
conditions. We expect more defaults in 2016, with vulnerabilities especially high
among commodity companies. We think four to six high yields corporates could
default next year.
We expect the buyer base for Asia credit to change in 2016. Specifically, we expect
greater demand from China- and Japan-based investors as others scale back their
activity.
With the size of the Asia credit (USD-denominated) universe being 70% larger than
European high yield and 50% the size of US high yield, we expect global credit
investors to allocate more to Asia credit independent of other emerging markets over
the coming years. We expect financials to be the entry point of choice for global credit
investors looking to dip their toes into Asia. Similarly, we think strategic Chinese SOEs
are likely to continue to find a place in global portfolios. We expect the performances
of China real estate companies to stabilise, given improving fundamentals and a
supportive technical backdrop. India and Indonesia also look better positioned
compared with other EM peers and are likely to attract flows, in our view.
4 December 2015
162
Our fundamental outlook for China high grade issuers is benign. These issuers are
largely state owned (central/provincial/municipal government) and national champions
or leaders in their respective sectors. Therefore, we think Chinas gradual economic
slowdown is unlikely to lead to a significant credit deterioration. On the other hand, the
governments growing focus on SOE and financial sector reforms should improve credit
profiles. Some moderation in credit metrics is likely (especially in the commodity and
banking sectors), but credit ratings are likely to remain stable, in our view.
Expectations of sustained CNY depreciation versus the USD could result in increased USD
balances in China/Hong Kong (Figure 6), strengthening the demand technicals for USD
bonds of Chinese SOEs. In 2016, we expect increased demand from China insurers, asset
managers and commercial banks. Given this, we believe bonds that are directly
issued/guaranteed by Chinese SOEs could continue to see strong demand next year. At
the same time, given the liquidity backdrop in the banking system, we think the loan
market will likely compete with bonds as an attractive funding source, also limiting supply.
FIGURE 1
Returns for Asia Credit
FIGURE 2
Asia credit versus US IG
Asia Credit
Asia IG
Asia HY
-1.46
-2.49
1.46
2014
8.3
8.92
6.05
YTD-2015
2.9
2.36
5.33
0.75-1.25
0.75-1.25
2.75-3.25
2013
1.36
0.61
3.42
2014
3.63
3.57
3.63
YTD-2015
1.55
1.02
3.87
2016F
2-2.5
1.75-2.25
3.5-4
2016F
Excess return (%)
4 December 2015
OAS, bp
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
US Credit
Jan-14
Jan-15
Asia Credit
163
FIGURE 4
Estimated non-FDI capital flows
SG TH TW
MY 4% 3% 0%
4%
PH
5%
USD bn
100
CN
40%
IN
8%
150
50
0
-50
HK
10%
-100
-150
ID
12%
4 December 2015
-200
Sep-10
KR
14%
Capital outflow
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
Sep-14
Sep-15
164
Number of
issuers
Notional amount of
bonds that
defaulted
subsequently
Number of
defaults
2,822,500
1,422,500
2013
7,409,310
12
1,869,310
2014
10,598,415
19
2,759,310
4 December 2015
165
Domestic sources of liquidity are likely to remain available, despite mild financial stress
and adverse operating conditions. As a result, we think domestic short-term debt is
likely to be rolled over and, hence, is unlikely to cause defaults.
Some companies could utilise low bond prices to restructure debt proactively, even
though their liquidity could be adequate. The assessment of default/restructuring risk in
such cases becomes a judgement call on options available to management to preserve
equity value/increase the runway for outlasting adverse operating conditions.
It is very difficult to predict corporate malfeasance and its ramifications, given disclosure
levels.
Against this backdrop, for corporates that have medium/high default/restructuring risk,
4 December 2015
166
600
USD173mn of long-term loans due in the next 12 months against cash of USD70mn. The company
indicated on its earnings call that its ability to refinance will be dependent on approval of the Tavan
Tolgoi project. This has been under consideration by the Mongolian Parliament since early 2015 but
the timing of a vote has not been announced.
Honghua Group
(HONHUA)
200
CNY1.1bn of cash against CNY3.2bn of short-term debt; however, it has CNY12.4bn unutilised (but
unsecured) bank lines.
250
CNY274mn of cash and CNY696mn of short-term debt as of June 2015, and large cash outflow of
CNY770mn in LTM June 2015. Given current low oil prices, the company may find it more difficult to
access incremental funding.
Indika Energy*
(INDYIJ)
800
Liquidity likely to deteriorate in 2016, as dividend income likely to drop significantly from the
USD98mn expected in 2015. Annual interest costs of approximately USD65mn and LTM June 2015
capex of USD61mn. A further deterioration in the companys outlook might prompt it to propose a
restructuring of its USD bonds.
MNC Investama*
(BHITIJ)
365
Weak holdco liquidity position could prompt opportunistic debt restructuring, even though the group
has funding options. In 2008, Global Mediacom, a key subsidiary, reduced its stake in PT Mobile-8,
triggering the change-of-control put on Mobile-8s USD bonds, which it was not able to redeem and
therefore resulted in a default.
Rolta (RLTAIN)
373
Has INR2.9bn of short-term debt, of which INR2.5bn is long-term debt coming due in the next 12
months, against IDR5.5bn of cash at end-March. Its bonds fell after it was the subject of a shortsellers research report in April 2015.
China Fishery
Group (CFGSP)
288
Cash of USD41mn against short-term debt of USD295mn at end-August. Revenues could be hit by
reduced catch due to El Nio. In a stock exchange announcement, the company said it has started
discussions with certain bank lenders regarding additional funding and amendments to its existing
borrowings.**
Gajah Tunggal*
(GJTLIJ)
500
Potential for opportunistic restructuring due to deteriorating liquidity, based on guided EBITDA of
USD110-120mn, annual interest expense of USD50mn and guided 2015 capex of USD100mn.
Annual renewal of bank lines in August 2016 is also a potential stress point.
MIE Holdings*
(MIEHOL)
700
Liquidity remains adequate following recent equity funding and potential asset sales. Non-renewal of
secured bank lines or continued low oil prices (< USD50/bbl) could raise liquidity stress beyond 2016.
Noble Group*
(NOBLSP)
2,009
Risk increases if weak 2H15 cash generation prompts lenders not to renew bank lines in 2Q16. We
believe Noble will have to shrink its operations if access to liquidity is limited.
400
Had c.CNY1.5bn of cash and CNY2.79bn of liquid investments at end-1H15; short-term debt was
CNY644mn.
3,350
Inability to repay 2016 maturities could result in a default scenario, although that is not our base
case.
Japfa Comfeed
Indonesia (JPFAIJ)
225
IDR244bn of long-term loans due in 2016 and IDR1.5trn of domestic bonds due in early 2017 against
IDR780bn of cash.
Global A&T
Electronics
(GATSP)
625
USD177mn of cash against USD0.3mn of short-term debt at end-September. However, ongoing legal
dispute is a default risk if the court reverses its initial decision in favour of the company.
500
Depends on large undrawn credit facilities (c.INR60bn) to cover its short-term debt (c.INR43.3bn at
FYE March 2015), given its relatively small cash position (c.INR19bn). It purchases raw materials by
issuing acceptances (INR108.9bn, part of trade payables) that are backed by its bank facilities.
Glorious Property
(GLOPRO)
400
Weak liquidity, with cash of CNY1.0bn against short-term debt of CNY21.8bn as at June 2015. Sales
remain weak, although they rose 15.6% y/y, to CNY3.3bn, in 9M15 from a low base. However, the
company repaid a USD300mn bond due in October 2015.
Lodha Developers
(LODHA)
200
At end-March, the company had INR100bn of short-term debt, including INR89bn of term loans and
INR9.6bn of debentures, against INR4.3bn of cash at the parent guarantor level.
Alam Sutera*
(ASRIIJ)
460
Yingde Gases*
(YINGDZ)
668
Near-term funding needs addressed with syndicated loan and onshore bond issuance; weaker-thanexpected receivable collections could result in funding pressure.
Note: *Under credit coverage, for current ratings see Asia Credit Alpha, 27 November 2015. **According to Bloomberg, HSBC said on 26 November 2015 that it asked
the Hong Kong High Court to wind up China Fishery Group and appoint a liquidator. Source: Company data, Bloomberg, Moodys, Barclays Research
4 December 2015
167
Corporates
We expect corporate issuance in Asia to decline further y/y in 2016, with the high yield
China sector having the sharpest decline. We see the key themes in corporate issuance next
year as the following:
Chinese high yield companies, especially property, are likely to move away from offshore
issuance significantly. The onshore bond market has shown an ability to fund size and
tenor. While onshore spreads may not be sustainable and are likely to reset wider with
more supply, we think a backdrop of USD strength has made offshore issuance
substantially less attractive.
Oil & gas, which has been a prominent fixture in previous years, is likely to take a back
seat. We expect companies in the sector to continue to cut capex and be more selective
about M&A.
Financials
In 2016, we think financial sector bond supply ex-China is likely to be mainly for refinancing
senior debt and capital instruments. The key change versus 2015 is likely to come from
China, where we expect the financials issuer base to diversify further, with insurance and
leasing companies accounting for a higher proportion y/y. We expect issuance in Korea to
increase y/y, mainly due to a significant maturity pipeline.
4 December 2015
168
Sovereigns
We expect Asia sovereign supply to increase y/y in 2016. This is likely to be driven by:
Building foreign reserves and buffers for balance of payments positions (especially given
the risk of further capital outflows from domestic markets).
Overall, we believe that as EM flows slow, the demand for local currency bonds will also
fade, which would make it difficult for countries to continue to fund themselves locally
(especially those with a high reliance on foreign purchases). In turn, this will likely increase
their foreign commercial borrowings. A risk to our 2016 estimates is a sharp deterioration in
market conditions that could lead to preference for bi-/multi-lateral borrowing instead.
Low JGB yields and a need for diversification will be key drivers for Japanese investors to
increase allocations to Asia. We expect high grade credit to benefit from these flows.
4 December 2015
169
Global institutional
fixed income
(including EM)
1. Generate returns on deposits (especially foreign 1. Philippine banks to continue to buy ROP bonds. A rise in US
currency) or park USD liquidity.
yields will likely raise their demand for ROPs.
2. ASEAN banks: We expect domestic liquidity to tighten across
most banking systems. We also do not expect USD liquidity to
improve next year; hence, any pressure on capital flows could
exacerbate weak liquidity conditions. Furthermore, central
banks are likely to mop up any excess USD liquidity. Thus,
demand for credit from these banks will likely be lower.
Asian
Insurance/pension
companies
Official institutions,
SWFs, government
related entities
Private banks
4 December 2015
170
Banks
Insurance
Pensions
1. Diversification away from JGBs, similar to GPIF's 1. Investment in hard currency EM mandates that filters into Asian
change.
credit. GPIF bond mandates announced in early October had
EM benchmarks.
2. Expanding investable universe to include EM.
Japan
China
Banks
Insurance
Asset Managers
Private banks
171
China HY
property
China IG
property
China IG
SOEs
China
internet
China/
HK financials
Financials exChina/HK
Amount Outstanding,
USD bn (*)
55.2 (62%)
34.2 (38%)
19.1 (4%)
82.3 (17%)
18.2 (4%)
74.3 (15%)
78.4 (16%)
8.7 (15%)
7.1 (21%)
2.2** (12%)
24.7 (40%)
3.3 (22%)
32.6 (76%)
14.7 (18%)
Index Rating
BA3/B1
BA3/B1
BAA2/BAA3
A1/A2
A1/A2
A3/BAA1
A2/A3
OAS (bp)
609
606
243
173
153
176
134
OAD
3.57
2.50
4.60
5.80
4.63
4.14
3.62
Note: * Size as proportion of benchmark index. Benchmark for IG sectors is the EM Asia USD High Grade Credit index, while benchmark for HY sectors is the EM Asia
USD Credit Corporate HY index. ^ Gross index-eligible issuance as proportion of size of sector at end-2014. ** Includes Global Logistics Properties bond issuance.
Note: As of 1 December 2015. Source: POINT, Barclays Research
4 December 2015
172
4 December 2015
173
Aziz Sunderji
+1 212 412 2218
aziz.sunderji@barclays.com
BCI, US
The macro and sovereign backdrop will likely remain weak and some large sovereigns
Badr El Moutawakil
Technicals are set to deteriorate: refinancing needs are rising, while liquidity is
becoming increasingly scarce and expensive.
Country risk: Geographically, our preferred countries are Mexico, Peru, and Russia. Brazil
and Turkey are more vulnerable; we expect both to receive further downgrades in 2016.
FIGURE 1
Fundamentals are deteriorating: Leverage will remain above
historical levels if our commodity forecasts are realized
FIGURE 2
Valuations are not sufficiently rewarding: LatAm/EEMEA
spread ratios vs US credit are back to long-run median levels
2.2
3.3
2.0
2.3
2.1
1.9
1.8
2.8
1.7
1.5
1.6
2.3
1.3
1.4
1.8
1.1
0.9
1.2
0.7
1.0
Q2-15
Q4-14
Q2-14
Q4-13
Q2-13
Q4-12
Q2-12
Q4-11
Q2-11
Q4-10
Q2-10
Q4-09
1.3
0.5
'10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
BBB
Note: the comparison is based company ratings at each point historically (which
may be different from the rating today). Source: Barclays Research
15
3.1% at the index level. Our 2016 default forecast is described in detail in Global EM Corporate Credit: Rising defaults
will continue in 2016. Most large HY companies are quasi-sovereign, and we do not think any of those will default.
4 December 2015
174
Carry remains relatively insulating. LatAm/EEMEA spreads are in the top 15% of
historical levels since 2007. This cushion should offset the widening of 75bp we expect
over the coming year. Of course, if our spread widening forecast is too conservative,
carry will not be able to keep excess returns from turning negative. This is not a tail risk.
Based on current valuations, breakeven spread widening after incorporating a
conservative estimate of defaults is 80bp. There has been at least 80bp of widening in
more than one-third of y/y spread changes observed since 2007 (based on monthly
samplings in LatAm/ EEMEA credit).
Governments are standing behind their companies, especially the 40% of the market
comprising quasi-sovereigns. In particular, governments generally safeguard their quasisovereigns (which is where the worst deterioration has been) from default risk. This is
the main reason our 2016 par-weighted default forecast is only incrementally higher
than todays level, despite ongoing low commodity prices and an aging credit cycle16.
FIGURE 3
Our LatAm and EEMEA corporate credit returns forecast
All
IG
HY
500
300
825
575
350
925
Duration
5.0
6.0
4.0
+60
25
--
25
Price
96
--
87
1.25%
--
3.1%
100
--
225
-1.0
2.25
-1.5
-2.5
0.5
Our forecast for LatAm/EEMEA is the lowest of the 12 segments we cover in global
corporate credit. We elaborate on the five key drivers behind our forecast.
16
4 December 2015
For context, our par weighted US high yield 2016 default forecast rises more (from 2.5% to 4-4.5%)
175
Growth effect
Figure 4 shows just how meaningful the recent slowdown has been in a historical context.
Using a basket of the largest EM countries today and weighting each ones contribution to
overall EM growth by the size of its economy in each year, we can see that the recent
slowdown is highly anomalous outside of global recessions. This is perhaps the most
foundational and broad-reaching effect of lower commodity prices.
FIGURE 4
EM economic growth has rarely been this low outside of global recession periods
10
6
4
2
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Note: Based on average growth rate of Brazil, Russia, India, China, Turkey, Korea, South Africa, Argentina, Mexico. Each
countrys contribution to the global EM growth rate weighted by the size of the economy in that year. Global recessions
identified by the IMF. Source: Haver Analytics, Barclays Research
It is not the direct effect of lower prices (which would come through net exports) that is
dampening growth because imports have in many places contracted even more than
exports and because trade remains a smaller component of EM GDP. Instead, the
component of growth that has contributed the most to the slowdown is investment.
Unsurprisingly, companies are scaling back in an environment of low prices and low growth.
This parallels the drop in corporate bond issuance, which is running at 65% of the last 5y
average levels.
4 December 2015
176
Korea
Russia
Taiwan
China
Turkey
-1
Singapore
-2
India
-3
Brazil
Poland
SOAF
Czech
-4
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
The less timely but slow-burning indicators that tend to move in the same direction for
multiple quarters if not years at a time also suggest cause for tempered growth expectations.
60
55
50
45
40
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q4 14
Q3 14
Q2 14
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q3 13
Q2 13
Q1 13
Q4 12
Q3 12
Q2 12
Q1 12
Q4 11
Q3 11
Q2 11
Q1 11
10Q4
10Q3
10Q2
10Q1
09Q4
4 December 2015
177
Fiscal effect
Lower commodity prices are also having a large effect on fiscal dynamics. In many countries,
commodity exporting companies (mostly quasi-sovereigns) are major contributors to
government budgets. The oil & gas sector contributes 60% to government revenue in Abu
Dhabi, 50% in Russia, 30% in Mexico, and 20% in Colombia. In Chile, copper accounts for
20% of government revenue. In many countries, though external debt is low, government
debt is higher than it has been in the post-crisis era and governments are being pressured to
cushion the downturns with more spending even as they take in less revenue. This is
especially problematic for those facing elections or generally discontented populations. The
implication for quasi-sovereigns is that their sovereign backing is not as strong as it once was.
In some cases quasis are being pulled into sharing more of the fiscal burden; the recent
windfall tax on Russian oil and gas companies is a case in point. We do not think any major
quasi-sovereign will fail for lack of government support, but we do think this is yet another
source of pressure on EM companies, especially quasi-sovereigns.
Ratings effect
Most governments have low external debt, so default risk is low. Deteriorating fiscal dynamics
are a slow-burning problem. The more acute concern is that in some cases, the deterioration is
resulting in sufficient erosion (typically along with other factors, especially tricky politics and/or
geopolitics) that rating agencies are downgrading sovereigns. What is particularly worrying is
that the sovereigns most at risk of being downgraded are the ones that never made it that far
into IG territory to begin with.
FIGURE 6
The long-running sovereign upgrade cycle, which pulled so
many corporates into IG, has reversed
USD bn
Upgrade
150
Current rating in
dark blue
High
Yield
FIGURE 7
pulling corporates back down into high yield
100
50
0
-100
Investment
Grade
-150
-200
Downgrade
-50
$175bn of EM corp/quasis
downgraded due to sov rating
action
-250
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
BR
COL
4 December 2015
MEX
PER
RUS
SOAF
TURK
178
It is resulting in imported inflation. Global EM inflation has risen to 5.1% in 2015 and is
now above target in Brazil (8.9%), Russia (15.5%), and Turkey (7.6%). This is
complicating the central bank policy response. In a stagflationary environment, the
incentive is to cut rates to support growth and keep the currency weak to help fiscal
balances and exports. But this also results in more inflation, and the potential for
financial instability from a weak currency. There is no easy solution. Just as the fiscal
policy response is hampered by already large deficits and higher debt burdens (albeit in
local currencies), the monetary policy response is being constrained by weak currencies
and inflation.
Weak currencies also have a direct effect on some corporates, though we argue this is
exaggerated and affects only a small proportion of the market (see Emerging Market
Credit: Rapid Growth, Larger Size: Putting the Risks in Context). But companies such as
Efes, Coca Cola Icecek, Turk Telekom, VimpelCom, TMK, Russian Railways, Petrobras,
Gol, and Oi have at least moderate mismatches (debt/revenue/costs) that are causing
them some pain.
Banks could also be affected. Most do not have material open FX positions on their
balance sheets, but some (eg, Turkish banks) use a lot of external funding which could
become more expensive to repay with depreciating domestic earnings. Capital ratios could
also suffer from FX volatility: FX-related RWAs increase when the local currency
depreciates, if the proportion of capital held in USD is lower than the ratio of RWAs in USD,
capital ratios fall amid currency depreciation. NPLs could also rise as loans extended to
local borrowers in USD may be vulnerable to asset quality deterioration if the borrowers do
not have FX streams of revenue or hedges in place. The system that appears most
vulnerable to these risks is Turkey (especially the weaker capitalised Vakifbank and Yapi
Kredi). Though there are various mitigants in place, it seems likely that, at the very least,
17
The Brazil and Turkey sovereigns would be excluded from both the Barclays Global Aggregate index and the more
widely followed Barclays US Aggregate index. At risk corporates/quasis appear only in the Global Agg index, with the
exception of BANBRA 3.875% 2017s and 3.875% 2022s, and BRASKM 6.45% 2024s, which are also in the US Agg.
4 December 2015
179
FIGURE 8
By some metrics (our BEER model results shown here), most
LatAm currencies now fundamentally undervalued: it is not
clear if they will depreciate more with weaker commodities...
Currency misvaluation according to our BEER model
FIGURE 9
and considerations such as financial stability and inflation
may induce tighter policy, leading to stronger currencies
Consideration
Cut
30%
Growth
20%
Fiscal balance
10%
Exporters
0%
-10%
-20%
Hike
Financial stability
Inflation
-30%
-40%
-50%
BRL
COP
MXN
CLP
Now
Jun-99
TRY
RUB
funding costs could increase. Peruvian banks are also at risk in this respect. Though
external funding is virtually nil, roughly 50% of their assets and liabilities are dollardenominated. The proportion of lending in USD has collapsed recently, reducing FX credit
risk, but it is still relevant in our view (see EM Banks: Peruvian Banks 1H15 Results:
Recovery to support banks' results but not necessarily bond valuations).
Peru, which is a mining-dependent economy but has been able to overcome falling
prices by increasing production (Figure 22). We expect Peru to grow the fastest among
LatAm countries in 2015 and again in 2016. The country has enormous FX reserves, and
a former weakness bank lending in USD has been at least partially addressed. With
lower inflation and stronger fiscal metrics than LatAm peers, Peru has the policy
flexibility to deal with a period of continuing low metals prices, in our view.
Mexico, which remains a rare EM country that is tied to a developed market (the US)
rather than China and whose economy is geared towards manufacturing rather than
commodities. Moreover, though the government derives a quarter of revenue from oil,
central bank gains from the depreciating MXN and extensive oil hedges mitigate this.
We believe energy reform will continue to progress, albeit with more favourable terms
for investors and less favourable terms for the government. This should continue to
bolster growth.
Russia, where the recession appears to be nearing the bottom of the cycle. The recovery
is likely to be very shallow, particularly if oil prices stay low for an extended period and
recover only partially. But financial markets have stabilised, and the CBR has finally rolled
its 12m FX repo facility, removing a tail risk for local demand (Russia credit: Linking
banks' FX liquidity to local demand for Russian Eurobonds). Commodity exporters
balance sheets remain resilient, and the significant correlation between the RUB and oil
prices continues to be a natural hedge for the energy companies.
4 December 2015
180
GCC: In the Middle East, low oil prices continue to weigh on external and fiscal positions,
weakening sovereign balance sheets and eroding reserves and buffers. This has led to
significant drawdown of government deposits, leading to tightening liquidity in banks,
which is weakening the local bid that has underpinned tight GCC valuations for several
years. This is one of our long-standing fears that now appear to be crystallizing (see GCC
Macro and Credit Update: Reassessing the 'safe haven' status, March 2, 2015). Higher
sovereign and bank supply and further rating downgrades are additional pressures.
Brazil: We expect a downgrade from Moodys or Fitch (the two agencies that still have
Brazil as IG) before the end of H1 16. The probability of default is low because Brazil has
low hard-currency debt service costs and high hard-currency reserves, but economic
and political momentum is deeply negative. Moreover, technical fears due to potential
forced selling and the lack of positive political or economic catalysts will likely linger on
the credit. For corporates, our biggest concern is the expanding Lavo Jato investigation
that continues to ensnare more companies, the systemic risk from Petrobras (even
though in our baseline forecast the government backstops the company if and when
needed), and the risk of the sovereigns repricing meaningfully wider on a downgrade.
Turkey: The election outcome has reduced near-term domestic political uncertainty.
However, given the risks to the medium-term outlook and following the election-related
outperformance of Turkish spreads, we maintain our underweight recommendation on
Turkish sovereign credit. Turkish corporates are in decent shape, but we are more
concerned about the banks. Overall, despite pockets of fundamental resilience, we think
the whole Turkey credit complex, including corporates, will widen if sovereign spreads
come under pressure.
4 December 2015
181
FIGURE 10
Key statistics for countries hosting large corporate bond markets in LatAm and EEMEA
LATAM
EEMEA
Brazil
Mexico
Chile
Colombia
Peru
Russia
Turkey
SOAF
UAE
Qatar
-2.8
2.5
2.3
2.1
3.8
0.0
2.9
1.8
3.5
5.0
-1.2
2.8
2.5
2.9
3.9
0.2
3.0
1.7
3.4
5.4
-3.8
2.5
2.0
2.7
3.1
-3.7
2.8
1.4
3.4
4.3
Fuel % of exports
9.2
10.7
0.9
69.4
14.5
71.2
3.8
11.0
64.8
87.8**
14.4
2.9
56.4
1.1
45.8
4.7
4.1
25.9
0.9
0.3
26.0
66.0
66.0
38.0
46.0
51.0
60.0
64.0
186.0
82.0
-0.4
-1.1
3.3
-2.4
-0.1
2.0
-5.1
-5.9
Economy
Vulnerability
Current Account + FDI (% GDP, 4Q trailing)
Gross external debt (USD bn, 2016f)
364
470
149
108
67
486
365
134 (15)
281
143
29.6
34.3
57.9
26.0
3.1
36.7
52.5
40.6
71.8
79.9
369
183
42
46
59
396
105
52
86
45
105.4
42.6
26.1
47.7
97.7
30.6
34.3
32.6
30.6
31.4
-1.1
-0.5
-2.0
-1.5
-0.5
-2.3
0.4
0.1
-1.9
-1.8
4.25
5.00
6.50
5.75
6.25
7.25
5.25
4.25
12.0
5.9
10.8
12.4
16.8
16.0
16.5
9.5
3.6
13.0
15.4
7.6
11.4
14.7
11.9
24.6
20.7
10.8
24.0
30.3
-3.4
-1.7
-0.5
-2.4
6.7
-8.6
-4.2
-1.2
-20.4
-17.3
-7.1
-2.1
0.5
-7.0
-0.3
23.9
1.1
0.7
1.9
3.6
609
291
258
410
243
250
277
358
183
121
420
153
84
230
173
340
256
260
141
95
120
Banking system
Difference
Valuations
450
204
162
276
232
316
299
308
252
BB+ NEG
BBB+
AA-
BBB
BBB+
BB+ NEG
BB+ NEG
BBB-
AA*
AA
Baa3
A3
AA3
Baa2
A3
Ba1 NEG
Baa3 NEG
Baa2
Aa2*
AA2
BBB- NEG
BBB+
A+
BBB
BBB+
BBB- NEG
BBB-
BBB NEG
AA*
--
664
307
246
376
227
377
345
518
185
138
683
377
304
810
310
489
312
420
211
142
Note: *UAE rating is based on Abu Dhabi. ** Qatar export as relative to Natural gas. For UAE and QATAR, current account balance is ex-FDI.*** Source: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, WDI, World Bank, National Statistics offices,
Moodys, S&P, Fitch, Barclays Research. Prices as of Dec 1 2015.
4 December 2015
182
FIGURE 11
FX mismatches affect only a small part of the market: The
EM corporate bond market by sector (sectors in dark blue
benefit from weaker FX)
Basic Mats
9%
FIGURE 12
The expansion of the market is in itself not problematic: EM
capital markets remain small compared with EM GDP
Utills
8%
Developed
Market
bond
53%
TMT
8%
Energy
25%
Industrial
5%
Fins
36%
4 December 2015
Consumer
6%
Developed
Market
stocks
30%
Diversified
3%
Emerging
Market
bonds
11%
Emerging
Market
stocks
6%
183
Copper
Units
2012
y/y
2013
y/y
2014
y/y
2015
2016
forecast
y/y
12-16
drop
US$/t
7948
-8%
7326
-6%
6865
-20%
5504
2%
5625
-29%
Gold
US$/oz
1668
-15%
1412
-10%
1266
-8%
1159
-9%
1054
-37%
Silver
US$/oz
31.1
-23%
23.8
-20%
19
-15%
16.2
-2%
15.8
-49%
Platinum
US$/oz
1547
-4%
1483
-7%
1379
-20%
1110
4%
1150
-26%
Palladium
US$/oz
641
13%
723
11%
799
-8%
735
5%
775
21%
WTI
US$/bbl
94
4%
98
-5%
93
-45%
51
16%
59
-37%
Brent
US$/bbl
112
-3%
109
-8%
100
-44%
56
13%
63
-44%
US$/mmbtu
2.82
32%
3.73
14%
4.27
-35%
2.76
7%
2.95
5%
US Nat Gas
Note: We do not officially forecast iron ore, but our mining analysts assume $56/t in 2015 and $50/t in 2016, ie, a falling fundamental fair value. See Commodity
Markets Outlook: A drawn-out bottom. Source: Bloomberg, Ecowin, Barclays Research
The effect of all of these factors the direct hit from commodities and the indirect hit of
slower growth is tangible in EM corporate fundamentals.
Leverage
EM companies have been steadily leveraging up since 2010. This reflects, to us, open capital
markets amid strong EM fundamentals and supportive developed central bank liquidity
programmes. Indeed, funding costs were falling during this time: the average yield to worst
was below the average coupon for almost all of 2010-14. But this increase in leverage was not,
until recently, troublesome. EM companies started from a low base of leverage and were less
leveraged than their US peers at every rating level.
But that has now changed. The sharp drop in oil at the end of 2014, combined with the fact
that almost a third of the global EM corporate market comprises oil producers, has resulted
in EM leverage soaring, in absolute terms and also in relation to US peers. Whether looking
at aggregate markets (EM vs. US IG and US HY), broken down by rating bucket, or on a
ratings-matched basis (EM vs. a rating matched combination of US IG and HY), EM has
fundamentally underperformed US peers.
FIGURE 14
EM leverage increased faster in EM than DM over the past couple of years in As, BBBs, and Bs
DM
EM
2.9
EM
6.2
3.7
5.7
3.2
2.5
4.7
4.2
2.3
3.2
2.1
2.2
2.7
2.2
2015LTM - Q2
1.7
2014
2015LTM - Q2
2014
2013
2012
2015LTM - Q2
2014
2013
2012
2011
1.7
2010
2015LTM - Q2
2014
2013
1.7
2012
1.7
2011
1.9
2010
1.9
3.7
2011
2.1
2.7
2010
2.3
EM
5.2
2.7
2.5
DM
2013
2.7
DM
2012
EM
4.2
2011
DM
2010
4 December 2015
184
FIGURE 15
Leverage has soared since the middle of 2014
FIGURE 16
and earnings continue to fall as commodity prices tumble
Quarterly EBITDA, Y/Y changes
Commodity prices
30%
140
20%
130
10%
120
0%
110
-10%
100
-20%
90
-30%
4 December 2015
Q2-15
Q4-14
Q2-14
Q4-13
Q2-13
Q4-12
Q2-12
Q4-11
Q2-11
Q4-10
Q2-10
Q4-09
1.3
80
Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15
EBITDA change
185
Price below:
Yield to Worst
higher:
Type of
company
Rating below:
70%
75
7.0
Private only
Central
85%
80
6.5
Private only
CCC
Less stringent
100%
85
6.0
Private + Quasi
Criteria set
Stringent
We also calculate pessimistic and optimistic variants of our central forecast by using more and
less stringent criteria, respectively. The outlook is asymmetric: in our optimistic scenario, the
default rate falls modestly, to 2.2%, but in our pessimistic scenario, it surges to 16%.
Our par-weighted (ie, by the debt outstanding of the issuer) forecast is substantially lower
than the issuer-weighted forecast (ie, each issuer carrying an equal weight). In other words,
we expect a similar volume of debt to default in 2016 as in 2015, but a much higher number
of credit events.
The reason is that the smaller issuers are particularly at risk:
FX risk is more of a problem for smaller companies. Investors have generally been
reluctant to lend large amounts of dollars to companies that have no natural dollar
revenue streams. Those that tend to have access to dollars are typically large commodity
exporters, and those that lack dollar revenues tend to be smaller (with less debt).
Smaller companies have fewer avenues for liquidity. This is especially a factor in Asia,
where liquidity is critical to distinguishing high yield property companies.
Most of the larger high yield companies are quasi-sovereigns, which benefit from state
support and as a result have much lower default risk. This is especially true now that
Russian quasis and most Brazilian quasis have been downgraded to high yield.
FIGURE 18
Our global EM corporate HY 2016 default forecasts: the
outlook is asymmetric to the downside
20.0%
16.0%
16.7%
5.0%
14%
12%
15.0%
10.0%
FIGURE 19
In our central scenario, defaults rise much higher than the
2012-15 average rate, but remain below 2009 levels
10%
Current LTM
default rate
8%
6.7%
2.2%
4.3%
3.8%
6%
4%
0.0%
Par
Issuer
Par
Issuer
Par
Issuer
weighted weighted weighted weighted weighted weighted
Optimistic
Central
Pessimistic
Note: Current LTM default rate refers to the issuer-weighted rate. Forecast
based on all EM HY HC universe, not only for index-eligible securities.
Source: Barclays Research
4 December 2015
2%
0%
2009
2012-2015 Average
Par Weighted
2016 Forecast
Issuer weighted
186
FIGURE 21
Companies have already scaled back capex substantially
5.0
4 December 2015
2015LTM - Q2
2015LTM - Q1
2014LTM - Q4
2014LTM - Q3
2014LTM - Q2
2014LTM - Q1
2015LTM - Q2
2015LTM - Q1
2014LTM - Q4
2014LTM - Q3
2014LTM - Q2
2014LTM - Q1
2013LTM - Q4
2013LTM - Q3
2013LTM - Q2
2.0
2013LTM - Q4
3.0
2013LTM - Q3
4.0
2013LTM - Q2
108
106
104
102
100
98
96
94
92
90
187
Africa
Chile
Source: Bloomberg
Arrium
Brockman
Citic Pacific
Cliffs Natural
Gindalbie/Ansteel
Peru
Hancock
250
Atlas Iron
Vale
500
Cazaly Resources
750
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Rio Tinto
1,000
Fortescue
BHP
Anglo American
FIGURE 23
Vale remains a cost leader
BHP/Vale
FIGURE 22
Peru set to bring on the most copper in 2016
Source: Bloomberg
-83%
CLP
PEN
-95%
-93%
RUB
COP
ZAR
KZT
NGN
ZMW
-76%
-97%
Platinum
-91%
-49%
-90%
-93%
Zinc
Silver
Gold
Iron ore
-87%
-69%
-84%
-86%
-85%
4 December 2015
188
FIGURE 26
Credit growth has slowed across EM; such slowdowns are
often followed by rising defaults
y/y credit growth rate
Current rate
Maximum rate between 2004-09
75%
20
15
50%
10
5
0
25%
-5
-10
-15
Malaysia
Korea
South Africa
Mexico
Brazil
India
China
Indonesia
Saudi Arabia
Russia
Turkey
Russia
China
CORPORATE
Peru
India
Qatar
4 December 2015
Chile
UAE
Turkey
S.Africa
Mexico
Colombia
Brazil
BANK
Source: Barclays Research
0%
189
FIGURE 27
The amount of corporate bonds maturing within three years
is twice as high as it was in 2012
EM Corp ex Asia maturity breakdown , since 2012
2012
$61bn
$89bn
$192bn
$45bn
2013
$82bn
$131bn
$280bn
$66bn
FIGURE 28
Corporate redemptions are limited for 2016, but will pick up
in 2017 and 2018
USD bn
equiv
90
80
70
32
32
60
50
2014
$105bn
$125bn
$301bn
$88bn
40
20
30
2015
$126b
0%
$130bn
20%
1-3Y
$278bn
40%
3-5Y
60%
80%
5-10Y
10Y+
4 December 2015
$99bn
100%
20
10
55
48
29
0
2016
2017
EEMEA
2018
LATAM
190
FIGURE 29
US insurers were adding EM to their portfolios in 2009-13,
but have now stopped
$bn
FIGURE 30
European asset allocators are decreasing their exposure to
EM corporate credit
% of respondents decreasing holdings of EM corporate bonds
600
500
35
400
30
300
25
200
20
100
15
10
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2Q14 2014 2Q15
US life insurance holdings of EM bonds
5
0
2012
2013
2014
2015
Note: The findings are based on the views of 4,000 wholesale and institutional
fund selectors in continental Europe, who are buying mutual funds or creating
centralized portfolios for banks, pension funds, endowments, private banks or
funds of funds. Source: Expert Investor Europe
Second, institutional investors, who hold the vast majority of EM corporate bonds, have
turned from buyers on weakness to sellers on strength. This can be seen in the most recent
fund flow data provided by EPFR (see our most recent flows tracker). In our view, this is a
critical and overlooked aspect of the technical picture for EM corporates. We think the
motivation for these fund outflows is the fundamental deterioration in EM corporate
fundamentals, combined with unappealing valuations versus other asset classes (ie,
essentially our thesis in this outlook). While these could turn back into inflows, we think this
would be contingent on a turn in the perceived trajectory for commodities, which we do not
expect, at least in 2016.
Thus, companies will need to come to market in 2016 but will find this more difficult, or at
least more expensive. Indeed, the yield to worst on our EM corporate index now exceeds the
FIGURE 31
For the first time, funding costs for EM companies are going
up rather than down (yield on secondaries > avg. coupon)
%
FIGURE 32
LatAm/EEMEA corporate HC supply reached its lowest level
since 2010, equivalent to 50% of 2014 volumes
USD bn
7.0
200
6.0
160
5.0
120
4.0
92
71
80
3.0
2.0
40
1.0
0.0
Nov-09
68
2010
Nov-10
UST Equivalent
Source: Barclays Research
4 December 2015
Nov-11
Nov-12
Nov-13
Nov-14
Coupon
91
94
67
99
40
70
59
2011
113
31
2012
2013
2014
2015
EEMEA
LATAM
Potential additional supply for remainder of the year
Note: Data for EEMEA and LatAm for 2015 as of October 2015. The $8bn is an
extrapolation of the Q4 supply trend as a percentage of the full year observed
since 2012. Source: Bondradar, Barclays Research
191
Supply outlook
We forecast ~$35bn for LatAm corporates, versus $31bn year-to-date in 2015, and $20bn
of redemptions in 2016. We forecast ~$50bn for EEMEA corporates, versus $40bn year-todate in 2015, and $29bn of redemptions in 2016.
FIGURE 33
LatAm/EEMEA corporate bond hard currency issuance forecast
LatAm
EEMEA
$10bn
$8bn
Financial Issuance
$4bn
$6bn
Near-Term Maturities
$20bn
$29bn
$2bn
$10bn
$36bn
$53bn
For LatAm, we believe the degree to which Petrobras will be able to access capital market
will be a big determinant of overall volumes. We believe the company can avoid further
tapping the market this year. However, PETBRA will issue in 2016, if possible, given very
meaningful funding needs (see LatAm Oil & Gas: Petrobras (PETBRA): Initiating at
Overweight: From Black Hole Back to Black Gold, October 21, 2015).
2.2
1.6
2.0
1.5
1.8
1.4
1.2
1.0
4 December 2015
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.1
1.2
2.4
1.9
1.3
1.1
0.9
2.1
1.5
1.4
1.0
2.6
1.7
1.6
1.3
2.3
0.9
1.4
0.7
1.2
0.5
'10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
BBB
1.0
'10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
BB
192
182
DM BB
EM BB
252
162
122
102
152
102
42
22
102
52
52
22
2
2014
2015LTM - Q2
2013
2012
2011
2010
2015LTM - Q2
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2015LTM - Q2
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2009
2014
62
2015LTM - Q2
42
2013
82
2012
62
202
152
2011
82
252
202
142
2010
102
DM B
EM B
302
2009
DM A
EM A
122
Even within some commodity segments, especially miners, EM companies (even standalone
ones) do not look sufficiently compelling versus DM peers. Though EM companies benefit
from weaker FX, they also suffer from residing in economies that face lower commodity
prices, and from a weaker macro and sovereign backdrop.
FIGURE 35
Even standalone miners such as Vale do not yet appear cheap to global peers (in this
simple model, Vale is 100bp too tight, Southern Copper is 50bp too tight)
Spread (bp)
1,800
1,600
FM CN (B)
1,400
TCK (BB+)
1,200
1,000
FCX (BBB-)
800
AA (BBB-)
600
400
200
0
0.00
GLEN (BBB)
VALE (BBB)
SCCO (BBB)
RIO (A-)
BHP (A-)
2.00
CDEL (A+)
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
Gross leverage
Source: Barclays Research
4 December 2015
193
FIGURE 36
BBB valuations: Where EM BBBs trade versus where they
normally would, based on long-run relationship to US BBBs
850
FIGURE 37
BB valuations: Where EM BBs trade versus where they
normally would, based on long-run relationship to US BBs
850
650
650
450
450
250
250
50
50
RUSSIA
BRAZIL
TURKEY
CHINA
COLOM
INDON
PERU
CHILE
MEXICO
INDIA
UAE
ALL EM
USA
EUR
RUSSIA
BRAZIL
TURKEY
CHINA
COLOM
INDON
PERU
CHILE
MEXICO
INDIA
UAE
ALL EM
USA
EUR
Source: Barclays Research
FIGURE 38
Corporate versus sovereign differential: middle of the range,
overall
FIGURE 39
with an enormous variation across countries: Mex, Brazil
corps wide to sov, Turkey, Russia tight (4y ranges shown)
165
155
145
Brazil downgrade
Taper tantrum
Russia turmoil
135
125
115
105
95
85
TURKEY
RUSSIA
ALL
COLOM
PERU
INDON
Jun-15
QATAR
Jun-14
BRAZIL
Jun-13
MEXICO
75
Jun-12
Note: Based on 4 years of history. We match each EM corporate to its tenormatched sovereign, if the corporate or quasi is within one rating notch of the
sovereign at each sampling point. We include new issues as they come to
market, but exclude downgraded names from the entire series to avoid
substantial changes in sample constituents over time. Source: Barclays Research
Our oil outlook is more optimistic than our (and the consensus) metals outlook. We
think oil will bounce 13% between now and the end of 2016. By contrast, we expect
4 December 2015
194
TAQAUH is doubly exposed to lower energy prices. First, its oil and gas assets, from which
it derived about 35% of its total revenues in 9M15, have undergone an immediate decline
in profitability and cash flow generation amid lower oil prices. They also face a subdued
outlook due to the investments cuts conceded by the group that will likely affect its
production levels and reserves replacement cycle in the medium term. We expect
TAQAUH's last 12-month net leverage (net debt/EBITDA) of 6.8x recorded as of Q3 15 to
inch further up, above 7.0x at YE15, as a result of its weaker oil and gas EBITDA. Second,
TAQAUH bonds should suffer indirectly from the effect of lower prices on the local
technical bid: Abu Dhabi government deposits were previously flush with proceeds from
lucrative oil exports and used in part to buy local company issuance, particularly from
quasi-sovereigns such as TAQAUH. This technical bid is now fading, as seen in the gradual
repricing of the bonds in the short end of the curve in the past few months. Though a
systemically important quasi-sovereign in a strong jurisdiction (Abu Dhabi), TAQAUH,
trading below 250bp (60bp through PEMEX, another oil quasi sovereign in an A-rated
jurisdiction), is not pricing in these twin threats from lower oil, in our view.
With higher cash costs (C1 of $1.36/lb in Q1 15), declining ore grade and the need to spend
to maintain its production from falling, Codelco screens as the least prepared to lower
copper prices. Were copper prices to fall to an average of $1.59/lb in 2016, CDELs EBITDA
would turn to negative $108mn and its debt load would become unsustainable. Moreover,
its net leverage metrics would come under significant pressure even if copper were to
average at $2.27/lb in 2016, even when no dividends and no growth capex are assumed.
PEMEX: Low oil prices have been compounded by a fall in production that has led to
leverage increasing more than 1.0x since YE14. Production challenges will likely be
exacerbated by the need to reduce capex in the short and medium term to avoid
increasing the debt burden even further. Despite being one of the lowest-cost producers
globally and well positioned to benefit from Mexicos long-awaited energy reform,
management has estimated that every USD1/bbl decrease in oil price results in a
USD164mn decrease in aggregate top line results. $5/bbl lower, for example, would
represent over a 15% reduction in quarterly EBITDA.
4 December 2015
195
RURAIL: Russian Railways earnings in USD terms have fallen with currency
depreciation, which has pushed up net leverage, while cash flow is constrained due to
still-high capex commitments. Although the group is receiving government funding for
key projects, we think that questions about the source of funding for its March 2017
USD maturity ($1.5bn) will come into focus in 2016, given that cash coverage of shortterm debt typically runs below 100%. While we expect Russian banks to help Rurail
refinance this debt, flat spreads to credits with a large stream of FX revenues and lower
leverage, such as Lukoil and Norilsk Nickel, leave us preferring exposure to latter. We
keep our recommendation on Rurail as UW.
KTZ: Like its Russian peer, Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (Kazakh Railways) has seen its
earnings compress in USD terms as a result of the devaluation of the tenge, as well as a
significant slowdown in freight volumes. This is pushing up leverage materially and has
raised ratings risks, with all three credit ratings at Moodys (Baa3), S&P (BB+) and Fitch
(BBB) on negative outlook. Any loss of IG status could trigger technical effects, on top of
the spread widening already driven by fundamental effects. As a result, we maintain our
UW rating on KTZ going into 2016.
EVRAZ faces growing challenges within the global steel sector. Benchmark CIS steel
prices have fallen a further 15% in Q4 15, and spot sits 5% below this level. As the most
leveraged name within the mainstream steel segment in Russia (alongside Severstal and
NLMK), Evraz is likely to have compression of the cash flow headroom because of capex
and interest expenses. Our equity team has reduced its estimate for Evraz's 2016
EBITDA to $1.2bn (from $1.5bn, see European Steel: At the edge), which could take net
leverage towards 5x. In addition, Evraz faces $2bn of USD eurobond maturities in 201718, while international loan and bond markets remain subdued.
Short banks that are deteriorating and trade <50bp off their sovereign
Senior bank spreads are now extremely compressed to their underlying sovereigns. In
low beta LatAm countries such as Peru, Chile and Mexico, the spread is in some cases as
low as 30bp. We think this is a mispricing of risk, and it has arisen due to market
segmentation effects. We do not think there is room for more compression (unlike in
Europe, we do not expect EM banks to trade inside their sovereigns); on the other hand,
we think gradual NPL deterioration (as per the above regarding banks) will cause a
repricing wider. We would single out the following banks are trading too tight to their
sovereigns and having a reasonable chance of fundamental deterioration over the
coming year: BCP 23s, BCOLO 21s and BBVASM 24s. Turkish banks as a whole also
screen very rich to the sovereign.
4 December 2015
196
FIGURE 40
Most bank capital structures are now relatively compressed
610
510
410
310
210
110
10
FINBN
YKBNK
HALKBK
VAKBN
EXCRTU
ISCTR
10Y SENIOR
AKBNK
RUSSIA
GARAN
CRBKMO
RSHB
VTB
VEBBNK
SBERRU
PERU
BKMOSC
BINTPE
BCOCPE
MEX
BCP
10Y SOVEREIGN
BBVASM
COLOM
BSANTM
DAVIVI
BCOLO
BANBOG
CHILE
SANT
BCICI
CORBAN
BANCO
CAIXBR
ITAU
BNDES
BANBRA
SANBBZ
BRADES
BRAZIL
TURKEY
10Y SUB
SCCO: Southern Copper is better positioned to withstand lower metals prices, given its
industry-lowest cash cost (C1 cash costs of $1.12/lb in Q2 15), long reserve life and
exposure to the weaker MXN and PEN, which together accounted for c.56% of total
costs. With current net leverage at 1.6x, the lowest cash cost in the industry, and a welloutlined project pipeline, SCCOs net leverage should remain manageable even under
scenarios in which the copper price is much lower than spot.
LUKOIL: We see Lukoil as offering attractive pickup over the Russia sovereign (c175bp in
the 2023s, for example), on which we are tactically positive, going into 2016. Lukoil
continues to benefit from a strong liquidity position, given recent asset sales and cash
inflows from Iraq to refund historical capex. Maturities are light in 2016, and although
the group has to begin to address 2017 debt, we see options for the company to return
to the eurobond market or continue to borrow from Russian banks. Leverage is
moderate at 0.9x and cash well in excess of short-term debt (c300%).
4 December 2015
197
GMKNRM: We see Norilsk Nickel as one of the most defensive metals and mining credits
in our Russia coverage universe. While it, like other commodity producers, is seeing topline pressure on account of materially lower nickel, copper and precious metals prices,
its cash flow and credit profile are underpinned by its low cost position, boosted by the
weaker RUB. Liquidity is strong, with all of its 2016 maturities now addressed, and in the
event of a rebound in both oil and the RUB, we think base metals prices are more likely
than steel to rise on account of structural overcapacity, leaving Norilsk bonds well
placed to outperform.
4 December 2015
198
RESEARCH CONTACTS
Bradley Rogoff, CFA
Head of Credit Strategy
+1 212 412 7921
bradley.rogoff@barclays.com
BCI, US
United States
Shobhit Gupta
Investment Grade Credit Strategy
+1 212 412 2056
shobhit.gupta@barclays.com
BCI, US
Anthony Bakshi
High Yield and Leveraged Loan Credit
Strategy
+1 212 412 5272
anthony.bakshi @barclays.com
BCI, US
Eric Gross
High Yield and Leveraged Loan Credit
Strategy
+1 212 412 7997
eric.gross@barclays.com
BCI, US
Jigar Patel
Credit Derivative Strategy
+ 1 212 412 1161
jigar.n.patel@barclays.com
BCI, US
Bruno Velloso
Investment Grade Credit Strategy
bruno.velloso@barclays.com
+1 212 412 2345
BCI, US
Sren Willemann
Head of European Credit Strategy
+44 (0) 20 7773 9983
soren.willemann@barclays.com
Barclays, UK
Zoso Davies
Investment Grade Credit Strategy
+44 (0)20 7773 5815
zoso.davies@barclays.com
Barclays, UK
Andreas Hetland
Investment Grade Credit Strategy
+44 (0) 20 7773 1547
andreas.hetland@barclays.com
Barclays, UK
James Martin
High Yield Credit Strategy
+44 (0)20 7773 9866
james.k.martin@barclays.com
Barclays, UK
Dominik Winnicki
Credit Strategy
+44 (0)20 3134 9716
dominik.winnicki@barclays.com
Barclays, UK
Tobias Zechbauer
High Yield Credit Strategy
+44 (0)20 7773 6790
tobias.zechbauer@barclays.com
Barclays, UK
Badr El Moutawakil
EM Credit Strategy
+ 44 (0)20 7773 2902
badr.elmoutawakil@barclays.com
Barclays, UK
Aziz Sunderji
EEMEA/LatAm Corporate Credit
Strategy
+1 212 412 2218
aziz.sunderji@barclays.com
BCI, US
Sebastian Vargas
LatAm Sovereign Credit Strategy
+1 212 412 6823
sebastian.vargas@barclays.com
BCI, US
Mayur Patel
Municipal Credit Research
+1 212 526 7609
mayur.xa.patel@barclays.com
BCI, US
Sarah Xue
Municipal Credit Research
+1 212 526 0790
sarah.xue@barclays.com
BCI, US
Europe
Asia-Pacific
Krishna Hegde, CFA
Head of Asia Credit Research
+65 6308 2979
krishna.hegde@barclays.com
Barclays Bank, Singapore
Municipal Credit
Mikhail Foux
Head of Municipal Credit Research
+1 212 526 7849
mikhail.foux@barclays.com
BCI, US
4 December 2015
199
Analyst Certification
We, Bradley Rogoff, CFA, Shobhit Gupta, Harry Mateer, Priya Ohri-Gupta, CFA, Jigar Patel, Ryan Preclaw, CFA, Bruno Velloso, Anthony Bakshi, Keith Byrne,
CFA, Eric Gross, Hale Holden, Mikhail Foux, Mayur Patel, Sarah Xue, Zoso Davies, Andreas Hetland, Soren Willemann, James K Martin, Dominik Winnicki,
CFA, Krishna Hegde, CFA, Avanti Save, CFA, Badr El Moutawakil, Aziz Sunderji and Tobias Zechbauer, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this
research report accurately reflect our personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part
of our compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
Important Disclosures:
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Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY 10019 or refer to http://publicresearch.barclays.com or call 212-526-1072.
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ORANGE SA
Other Material Conflicts: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is acting as lead financial adviser to Deutsche Telekom AG in relation to BT Group PLCs
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LAST PAGE
Sectors in European High Grade Research are defined using the sector definitions of the Barclays Pan-European Credit Index and are rated against the
Barclays Pan-European Credit Index.
Sectors in Industrials and Utilities in European High Yield Research are defined using the sector definitions of the Barclays Pan-European High Yield 3%
Issuer Capped Credit Index excluding Financials and are rated against the Barclays Pan-European High Yield 3% Issuer Capped Credit Index excluding
Financials.
Sectors in Financials in European High Yield Research are defined using the sector definitions of the Barclays Pan-European High Yield Finance Index and
are rated against the Barclays Pan-European High Yield Finance Index.
Sectors in Asia High Grade Research are defined on Barclays Live and are rated against the Barclays EM Asia USD High Grade Credit Index.
Sectors in Asia High Yield Research are defined on Barclays Live and are rated against the Barclays EM Asia USD High Yield Corporate Credit Index.
Sectors in EEMEA and Latin America Research are defined on Barclays Live and are rated against the Barclays EM USD Corporate and Quasi Sovereign
Index. These sectors may contain both High Grade and High Yield issuers.
To view sector definitions and monthly sector returns for Asia, EEMEA and
https://live.barcap.com/go/RSL/servlets/dv.search?pubType=4511&contentType=latest on Barclays Live.
Latin
America
Research,
go
to
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Underweight (UW): The analyst expects the six-month total returns of the issuers rand-denominated fixed rate notes or floating rate notes (as
applicable) to be below the six-month expected total returns the South African Credit Fixed Market Index (CFIX95) or the South African Credit Floating
Market Index (CFL020), respectively..
Rating Suspended (RS): The rating has been suspended temporarily due to market events that make coverage impracticable or to comply with applicable
regulations and/or firm policies in certain circumstances including where the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC is acting in an advisory capacity in a
merger or strategic transaction involving the company.
Coverage Suspended (CS): Coverage of this issuer has been temporarily suspended.
Not Covered (NC): Barclays fundamental credit research team does not provide formal, continuous coverage of this issuer and has not assigned a rating
to the issuer or its debt securities. Any analysis, opinion or trade recommendation provided on a Not Covered issuer or its debt securities is valid only as of
the publication date of this report and there should be no expectation that additional reports relating to the Not Covered issuer or its debt securities will be
published thereafter.
*In EEMEA and Latin America (and in certain other limited instances in other regions), analysts may occasionally rate issuers that are not part of the U.S.
Credit Index, the Barclays Pan-European Credit Index, the Barclays EM Asia USD High Grade Credit Index or Barclays EM USD Corporate and Quasi
Sovereign Index. In such cases the rating will reflect the analysts view of the expected excess return over a six-month period of the issuers corporate debt
securities relative to the expected excess return of the relevant sector, as specified on the report.
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Barclays Bank PLC, Tokyo branch (Barclays Bank, Japan)
Barclays Bank PLC, Hong Kong branch (Barclays Bank, Hong Kong)
Barclays Capital Canada Inc. (BCCI, Canada)
Absa Bank Limited (Absa, South Africa)
Barclays Bank Mexico, S.A. (BBMX, Mexico)
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Barclays Capital Securities Limited (BCSL, South Korea)
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Barclays Bank PLC, India branch (Barclays Bank, India)
Barclays Bank PLC, Singapore branch (Barclays Bank, Singapore)
Barclays Bank PLC, Australia branch (Barclays Bank, Australia)
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