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The Real
Cost of
Power
?
The Real Cost of Power
01
02
That reliable power is one of the key components for fostering growth is an indisputable fact.
The correlation between growth in GDP and addition to power generation capacity is close
to 1. This means that to realize our ambition to grow by 9% (as expressed by the Honourable
Finance Minister in his Budget speech of July 6, 2009), India needs additional generation
capacity of 9%, year after year, after wiping out the substantial deficit existing now.
Power outages result in lost economic opportunities for the end consumer. World over, the
cost of this opportunity loss is estimated in terms of metrics such as Value of Lost Load
(VOLL) and Cost of Unserved Energy (CUE). A simple search on Google will produce links
to several reports on this subject. For instance, in one of the projections, Power Grid
Corporation of India has estimated the VOLL in India as Rs.34/kWh to Rs.112/kWh.
Taking the recorded energy shortfall of 85 billion kWh in 2008-09, and the lower VOLL of
Rs.34/kWh, the Value of Lost opportunity for the country translates to Rs. 289,000 crores.
In GDP terms, this means a loss of nearly 6%.
In addition to the growth aspect, the quality of human lives today depends on electricity
almost as much as on food and shelter.
While load shedding is rampant on one hand, efforts to cope with the chronic power
problem continue on the other side. Common citizens as well as commercial organizations
have had to resort to various alternatives to deal with this crisis. The source of back-up power
varies from candles and kerosene lanterns, to battery Inverters, and generators, leaving aside
captive power plants used by large industries.
The over all intent of providing cheap and affordable power to the consumers in the country
is noble, but if the supplies are inadequate or unreliable, the consumers could actually end up
paying a much higher price.
To get a perspective on how different types of urban consumers cope with the power shortage
and what is their real cost of power, Wrtsil India commissioned a pan-India study through
a reputed strategy consulting firm. The findings of this study are interesting and provide an
insight that the common man in the country will benefit immensely by paying a little extra
sum of money in return for reliability in power supplies. A 'reliability surcharge' of as little as
50 paisa per unit can support rapid capacity build-up. This surcharge would be far less than
the extra charges consumers are incurring today and would also offer the comfort of '24 x 7'
availability. The nation would benefit from the resulting impact on GDP.
This study raises some important questions, and stakeholders across the power sector value
chain need to work together to find and implement the right solutions.
Wrtsil, with its wide experience in the global power market, looks forward to sharing its
global experience and contributing to the cause of ensuring '24 x7' reliable power to all
consumers in a growing India.
Rakesh Sarin
Managing Director
Wrtsil India Ltd.
03
04
Introduction
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
18
19
21
22
23
25
26
Conclusion
27
Exhibit 1
Ludhiana
Gurgaon
Faridabad
Noida
Delhi
Kanpur
Lucknow
Vadodra
Bhopal
Indore
Rajkot
Mumbai
Navi Mumbai
Respondent Categories
Number of
Respondents
Residential Users
647
Commercial Users
748
Industrial
65
43
Power Utilities
Pune
Visakhapatnam
Hyderabad
Bangalore
Mysore
Coimbatore
Chennai
Madurai
Cities covered for the
study
Total
1511
Source: UC Analysis
05
Exhibit 2
Severity of Power Outage across the Week Peak and Non-Peak Season
No
City
1
2
Peak Season
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
Bangalore
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
Bhopal
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
Chennai
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
Coimbatore
Delhi
Faridabad
Gurgaon
Hyderabad
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
0.7
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
Indore
10
Kanpur
11
Lucknow
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
12
Ludhiana
13
Madurai
14
Mumbai
15
Mysore
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
16
Navi Mumbai
17
Noida
18
Pune
19
Rajkot
20
Vadodara
21
Vishakapatnam
No outage
Infrequent up to 1hr
Infrequent up to 1hr
Note : Numbers in the table indicate the average daily outage hours
06
Non-peak Season
Mon
>=6 hours
Exhibit 3
No
City
Bangalore
Bhopal
Chennai
Coimbatore
Delhi
Faridabad
Gurgaon
Hyderabad
Indore
10
Kanpur
11
Lucknow
12
Ludhiana
13
Madurai
14
Mumbai
15
Mysore
16
Navi Mumbai
17
Noida
18
Pune
19
Rajkot
20
Vadodara
21
Vishakapatnam
Jan
Feb
Mar
No outage
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Peak Months
07
08
Exhibit 4
2-4
1-2
1-4
90%
100
No back-up
80%
80
Inverter &
Generator
Only
Generator
70%
60
50%
75
70
80
200
225
7.5
7.5
7.5
30%
Others
TV
Computer
Fan
Bulb
Tubelight
Approximate
Load (Watts) 37.5
40%
31
AC
23
Microwave
Oven
20
Refrigerator
40
60%
100
92
20%
Only
Inverter
10%
0%
0-100
101-300 301-500
501Above
Monthly Power Consumption
(in kWh )
09
10
Those selling products that need electric power e.g. Electronic retail stores such as Tata Croma
Those where customers spend significant time e.g. restaurants like Pizza Hut, other mid to high-end
retail stores
Those where refrigeration is a critical need e.g. Food retail stores, Ice-cream parlors
Those with machines critical to the operation of their business Auto service garages, Photo-printing
labs
Fans are used almost through the duration of the outage, especially during the summer season. Tube-light
and bulb usage on back-up power was high in stores that rely heavily on displaying products e.g. Branded
apparel/accessories outlets such as Van Heusen, Raymonds, Adidas. Those who used computers as an
integral part of the business operation typically supported the computer on back-up power through the
outage duration. ACs were however typically used only when customers were actually present in the outlet.
Exhibit 5
3-5
1-25
1-15
1-3
1-2
No back-up
90%
100
Inverter &
Generator
80%
80
70%
60
40
60%
80
80
85
Only
Generator
50%
40%
20
19
15
30%
Computer
AC
Other
Appliances
23
20%
200
1700
Approximate
Load (Watts) 37.5
70
Fan
Bulb
Tubelight
80
Only
Inverter
10%
0%
0-1000
1001-2500
2501Above
Monthly Power Consumption
(in kWH)
Source: Primary Research, UC Analysis
11
Resident, Kanpur
12
Exhibit 6
Rs per unit
3.0
Operating
expenses
2.5
AMC cost
2.0
1.5
Battery capex
1.0
0.5
Inverter capex
0.0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Outage hours (per day) for peak season
10
11
12
Source: UC Analysis
13
14
Exhibit 7
Premium for
using back-up
10
8
6
4
2
Vadodara
Rajkot
Pune
Noida
Navi Mumbai
Mysore
Mumbai-R
Mumbai-B
Madurai
Visakapatnam
Note: Mumbai B Stands BEST and Mumbai R Stands for Reliance Energy
Ludhiana
Lucknow
Kanpur
Indore
Hyderabad
Gurgaon
Faridabad
Delhi
Coimbatore
Chennai
Bhopal
Bangalore
15
16
Exhibit 8
Rs per unit
14
12
10
8
6
Premium for
Full Load on
back-up Power
4
2
Premium for
Limited Load on
back-up Power
0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Outage hours (per day) for peak season
09
10
11
12
Source: UC Analysis
17
Exhibit 9
Rs/kWH
4.0
3.5
3.0
Operating
Expenses
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
AMC cost
0.5
Genset capex
0.0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
18
09
10
11
12
Exhibit 10
Overall Cost Borne by Commercial Consumers 1500 Units Monthly Consumption with Genset
Rs./kWh
14
Grid Power
cost
Premium for
using back-up
12
10
8
6
4
2
Vadodara
Rajkot
Pune
Noida
Navi Mumbai
Mysore
Mumbai R
Mumbai B
Visakapatnam
Note: 'Mumbai B' Stands BEST and 'Mumbai R' Stands for Reliance Energy
Madurai
Ludhiana
Lucknow
Kanpur
Indore
Hyderabad
Gurgaon
Faridabad
Delhi
Coimbatore
Chennai
Bhopal
Bangalore
19
20
Exhibit 11
Equipment
Capacity
Inverter
0.6 kVA
400
Inverter
0.8 kVA
600
Inverter
1.4 kVA
Inverter
0.8 kVA
Inverter
1.4 kVA
1500
Generator
7.5 kVA
10000
Generator
50 kVA
Residential
200
Commercial
500
1500
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Premium over the Grid Power (in Rs)
10.0
Source: UC Analysis
21
Exhibit 12
Unaware
40%
Aware
20%
Vishakhapatnam
Vadodara
Rajkot
Pune
Noida
Navi Mumbai
Mysore
Madurai
Ludhiana
Lucknow
Kanpur
Indore
Hyderabad
Gurgaon
Faridabad
Delhi
Coimbatore
Chennai
Bhopal
Bangalore
0%
Unaware
60%
Aware
40%
20%
22
Vishakhapatnam
Vadodara
Rajkot
Pune
Noida
Navi Mumbai
Mysore
Madurai
Ludhiana
Lucknow
Kanpur
Indore
Hyderabad
Gurgaon
Faridabad
Delhi
Coimbatore
Chennai
Bhopal
Bangalore
0%
Exhibit 13
Without
Voltage
Stabilizer
60%
With
Voltage
Stabilizer
40%
20%
Visakapatnam
Vadodara
Rajkot
Pune
Noida
Navi Mumbai
Mysore
Madurai
Ludhiana
Lucknow
Kanpur
Indore
Hyderabad
Gurgaon
Faridabad
Delhi
Coimbatore
Chennai
Bhopal
Bangalore
0%
Without
Voltage
Stabilizer
60%
With
Voltage
Stabilizer
40%
20%
Visakapatnam
Vadodara
Rajkot
Pune
Noida
Navi Mumbai
Mysore
Madurai
Ludhiana
Lucknow
Kanpur
Indore
Hyderabad
Gurgaon
Faridabad
Delhi
Coimbatore
Chennai
Bhopal
Bangalore
0%
23
I sometimes wonder if I am in
the business of selling garments
or in the business of generating
power
24
Exhibit 14
Rs crore
Rs 98,011 crore
Life of
Equipment
(in years)
100,000
90,000
Rs crore
Rs 30,861 crore
Battery Maintenance
Expenses
32,000
1,561
28,000
80,000
51,948
70,000
Genset
15
24,000
Genset Maintenance
Expenses
20,000
60,000
16,000
50,000
27,937
40,000
24,131
Battery
12,000
30,000
8,000
20,000
21,933
10,000
0
Inverter
4,000
0
Source: UC Analysis
25
Exhibit 15
Inverter set
Prevalence
Inverter
System
Efficiency
Branded
Branded
High
High
70-80%
Local
Branded
Medium
60-70%
0.4
Branded
Local
Low
50-60%
0.2
Local
Local
Low
40-50%
Inverter
Battery
Branded
Branded
0.8
0.6
0.0
Source: UC Analysis
26
Inverter Efficiency
Loss related
27
?
28
This study has been carried out by Universal Consulting India Private Limited.