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7BillionandStillGrowing:ExplosivePopulationGrowthMightHaveHelpedUsDisplaceNeandertalsScientificAmericanBlogNetwork

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Observations

7 Billion and Still Growing: Explosive Population Growth

Might Have Helped Us Displace Neandertals
STAFF

By Katherine Harmon on July 28, 2011

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Thehumanpopulationwilltopsevenbillionthisyearmorethandoublewhatit
wasjust50yearsago,expertssay.

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7BillionandStillGrowing:ExplosivePopulationGrowthMightHaveHelpedUsDisplaceNeandertalsScientificAmericanBlogNetwork

Andthesenext39yearsareexpected
tobringaboutsomebigshiftsamong
thebiggestcountries.By2050,India
willhavesurpassedChinaasthe
world'slargestpopulation,growing
from1.24billionto1.69billionas
Chinashrinksfrom1.35billionto1.3
billion.AndAfrica'spopulationwill
likelyhavemorethandoubledbythen,withNigeriaslatedtocatchuptotheU.S.
numbers.ThefiguresaredescribedinanewreportpublishedintheJuly29issue
ofScience.

Alongwithsheernumbers,globallifeexpectancyisprojectedtoriseaswell:from
age69worldwidethisyearto76in2050.Bythen,nearlyaquarteroftheworld's
populationisexpectedtobeover60whichisaboutdoubletheproportionthatit
istoday.

"Thedemographicpictureisindeedcomplexandposessomeformidable
challenges,"includingcontraception,childmortalityandretirementpolicies,
DavidBloom,aprofessorofeconomicsanddemographyattheHarvardSchoolof
PublicHealth,saidinapreparedstatement."Thosechallengesarenot
insurmountable,butwecannotdealwiththembystickingourheadsinthesand."

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Heandothersalsoassertthatwewillcontinueourtrendofleavingruralareasfor

thecity.Currentlyjustoverhalfoftheworld'spopulationlivesinurban
environments,butby2050,thatfigureisexpectedtobesome69percentofthe
world's9.3billionpeople.

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7BillionandStillGrowing:ExplosivePopulationGrowthMightHaveHelpedUsDisplaceNeandertalsScientificAmericanBlogNetwork

Someresearchersthinkourtendencyforexplosivepopulationgrowthand
concentrationhelpedusseizethefuturefromtheNeandertals.Newanalysis,
describedinanotherpaperpublishedinthesameissueofScience,suggeststhatit
wasearlyhuman'ssheernumbersthatpushedasideourpredecessors,whohad
beenaroundforsome300,000years.

"Facedwiththiskindofcompetition,theNeandertalsseemtohaveretreated
initiallyintomoremarginalandlessattractiveregionsofthecontinentand
eventuallywithinaspaceofatmostafewthousandyearsfortheirpopulations
tohavedeclinedtoextinction,"SirPaulMellars,aprofessoremeritusofprehistory
andhumanevolutionatCambridgeUniversity,saidinapreparedstatement.He
andhiscoauthorssuggestthattools,cultureandadiversegenepoolhelpedour
earlyancestorsbefruitfulandmultiply.Achangingclimatemighthavebeenthe
finalblowtoourclosecousins.

Asunclearastheseancientdynamicsmightstillbe,thefutureremainsevenmore
unsure,notedBloomandhiscoauthorsontheworldwidepopulationestimates.
"Theglobaloutlookisgreatlycomplicatedbyaslewofuncertaintiesinvolving,for
example,infectiousdisease,war,scientificadvance,politicalchange,andour
capacityforglobalcooperation,"theywrote.

ImagecourtesyofiStockphoto/thehague
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Katherine Harmon
Recent Articles
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7BillionPeopleandCounting

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