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Buy
| 300
12-18 months
25%
Whats changed?
Target
EPS FY17E
EPS FY18E
Rating
Key financials
| crore
Net Sales
EBITDA
Net Profit
EPS
FY15
2470.2
152.3
12.6
3.7
FY16
1894.7
165.0
22.7
6.6
FY17E
1711.3
217.4
45.5
13.2
FY18E
1850.1
240.6
93.0
27.0
FY17E
18.2
22.7
7.4
1.5
8.2
12.1
12.5
FY18E
8.9
11.1
6.3
1.3
14.7
13.7
14.3
Valuation summary
P/E
Target P/E
EV / EBITDA
P/BV
RoNW
RoCE
ROIC
FY15
65.6
82.0
13.4
1.6
2.5
6.2
5.8
FY16
36.1
45.2
10.3
1.6
4.4
8.0
8.4
Stock data
Stock Data
Market Capitalization
Total Debt (FY16)
Cash and Cash Equivalent (FY16)
Enterprise Value
52 week H/L
Equity Capital
Face Value
MF Holding (%)
FII Holding (%)
| crore
827
1021
149.0
1700.0
247 / 80
34.5
| 10
0.0
6.5
Stock data
Phillips Carbon Black
Oriental Carbon (OCCL)
1M
29
21
3M
105
64
| 240
6M
182
85
12M
109
23
Research Analyst
Chirag J Shah
shah.chirag@icicisecurities.com
Shashank Kanodia, CFA
shashank.kanodia@icicisecurities.com
Company Analysis
Phillips Carbon Black (PCBL) is an RP-Sanjiv Goenka group (CESC
promoter group) company manufacturing carbon black domestically.
PCBL was incorporated in 1960 in collaboration with Phillips Petroleum
Company, US. In 1988, PCBL entered into a technical collaboration with
Columbian Chemicals Company, US. PCBLs first plant for manufacturing
carbon black was set up in Durgapur (West Bengal) with an installed
capacity of 14 KT, which commenced production in 1962. As of FY16,
PCB has four plants across India manufacturing carbon black with
associated waster heat recovery power plants; Durgapur, WB (147 KT, 30
MW); Mundra, Gujarat (140 KT, 30 MW); Palej, Gujarat (95 KT, 12 MW);
Kochi, Kerala (90 KT, 10 MW). Producing power from waste gases; makes
PCBL a carbon neutral company.
Carbon black - capacity utilisation inching upwards!
PCBL has an effective installed capacity of 411 kilo tonne (KT) for carbon
black (name plate capacity at 472 KT). In FY16, PCB operated at 81%
capacity utilisation levels with carbon black sales at 335 KT. Going
forward, on the back of a pick-up in tyre demand domestically &
imposition of anti dumping duty, PCBL is witnessing robust demand.
Capacity utilisation is expected to augment to 93% in FY18E with
corresponding carbon black sales at 380 KT in FY18E, implying sales
volume CAGR of 6.5% in FY16-18E.
Exhibit 1: Capacity, production & capacity utilisation levels
500000
76
400000
380175
411000
361680
411000
411000
332038
100000
60
311823
200000
100
80
300000
411000
tonne
93
88
81
40
20
0
FY15
FY16
Capacity
FY17E
Production
FY18E
380175
361680
100000
335146
200000
100000
100
80000
80
60000
60
40000
20000
0
0
FY15
FY16
Sales Volume
FY17E
FY18E
Realization (|/tonne)
28
28
20
20
72
72
80
80
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
54257
45043
46368
300000
313562
tonne
400000
76571
|/tonne
500000
40
20
0
Moreover, this sales volume growth will be led by domestic sales, which
are indeed accretive in realisations and margins. Domestic to exports mix
is expected to improve to 80:20 in FY17E-18E vs. 72:28 in FY16.
Page 2
100000
80000
40000
42000 100000
80000
50000
60000
25000
0
FY15
FY16
FY17E
Domestic Sales Volume
40800
75000
20000
42035
76035
60000
65397
72336
304140
289344
242621
227150
tonne
100000
92525
58076
200000
100000
47460
86412
46104
tonne
79484
|/tonne
300000
40000
20000
0
FY18E
Domestic Realization
FY15
FY16
Exports Sales Volume
|/tonne
FY17E
FY18E
Exports Realization
2467
1893
| crore
2000
1710
1848
1500
1000
500
0
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
2398
1816
2000
| crore
1763
1629
1500
1000
500
76
69
81
86
0
FY15
FY16
Carbon Black Sales
FY17E
FY18E
Power Sales
Page 3
0
FY15
FY16
FY17E
EBITDA
FY18E
6.6
3.7
FY15
FY16
15
10
5
0
FY17E
PAT
EBITDA Margin
20
93.0
40
20
13.2
45.5
60
22.7
| crore
240.6
217.4
165.0
152.3
| crore
30
25
80
10
6.2
27.0
100
12.6
8.7
200
50
14
12
250
100
13.0
12.7
300
150
|/share
FY18E
EPS (|)
1,400
1.2
632.3
200
2.5
771.4
400
4.4
0
FY15
FY16
FY17E
RoE
RoCE
FY18E
1.5
1.6
871.4
600
2.0
2.0
555.8
8.2
8.0
6.2
800
2.5
2.4
1,021.4
1,000
522.7
1,200
13.7
1,219.7
12.1
14.7
510.2
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
| crore
1.0
0.5
0.0
FY15
FY16
Debt
FY17E
Equity
FY18E
Debt:Equity
Page 4
Revenue
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin %
PAT
EPS
FY17E
New
1711.3
217.4
12.7
45.5
13.2
% Change
(1.7)
(5.7)
-54 bps
(8.1)
(8.4)
Old
1,880.6
249.2
13.3
92.9
27.0
FY18E
New
1850.1
240.6
13.0
93.0
27.0
% Change
(1.6)
(3.5)
-25 bps
0.2
0.0
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
Sales
(| cr)
2467.3
1892.7
1709.7
1848.3
Growth
(%)
8.5
-23.3
-9.7
8.1
EPS
(|)
3.7
6.6
13.2
27.0
Growth
(%)
-114.6
81.4
98.7
104.6
PE
(x)
65.6
36.1
18.2
8.9
EV/EBITDA
(x)
13.4
10.3
7.4
6.3
RoNW
(%)
2.5
4.4
8.2
14.7
RoCE
(%)
6.2
8.0
12.1
13.7
Page 5
100
80
200
(%)
(|)
60
40
100
20
0
0
Oct-14
Dec-14
Price
Mar-15
May-15
Idirect target
Aug-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
Source: Bloomberg, Company, ICICIdirect.com Research; *I-direct coverage on Phillips Carbon Black was initiated on July 2016
Key events
Date/Year
2003
2007
2009
2010
2012
Event
PCBL increases its carbon black capacity in Durgapur to 1,35,000 metric tonne (MT) taking total Carbon Black Capacity to 2,00,000 MT
The company enters into a MOU for a carbon black plant in Vietnam
PCBL commences production of carbon black from the Greenfield capacity at Mundra with capacity of 90,000 MT (Total Carbon Black Capacity: 3,60,000 MT). PCBL
witnesses difficult market conditions with PCBL reporting loss at the PAT level in FY09
PCBL completes 50 years in operation. Golden jubilee year
PCBL further augments its carbon black capacity at Mundra & Durgapur. Commences 50,000 MT carbon black plant at Mundra (Total Carbon Black Capacity: 4,10,000
MT); Commences 8 MW co-generation power plant at Mundra, Gujarat (Total Power Capacity: 76 MW). Commences 12,000 MT carbon black plant at Durgapur (Total
Carbon Black Capacity: 4,22,000 MT)
2014
PCBL commences 50,000 MT carbon black plant at Kochi (Total Carbon Black Capacity: 4,72,000 MT)
2015
2016
PCBL records highest lifetime turnover of | 2470 crore in FY15. Consequent EBITDA & PAT stood at | 152 crore and | 13 crore respectively.
As of FY16, PCBL has 4 plants across India manufacturing carbon black with associated waster heat recovery power plants; Durgapur, WB (147 KT, 30 MW); Mundra,
Gujarat (140 KT, 30 MW); Palej, Gujarat (95 KT, 12 MW); Kochi, Kerela (90 KT, 10 MW). It is currently headed by Mr. Sanjiv Goenka (Chairman), CEO Mr. Kaushik Roy
and
CFO
Mr.
Raj
Kumar
Gupta.
In
FY16,
PCB
distributed
dividend
of
|
2.5/share
(EPS
|
6.6/share)
Top 10 Shareholders
Shareholding Pattern
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
(in %)
Promoter
FII
DII
Others
Name
Latest Filing Date % O/S Position (m) Position Change (m)
RPG Enterprises
30-Jun-16 50.0
17.2
0.0
Dotex Merchandise Pvt. Ltd.
30-Jun-16
3.4
1.2
0.0
Jupiter Asset Management Ltd.
30-Jun-16
2.9
1.0
-0.3
Elara Capital Plc
30-Jun-16
2.2
0.8
-0.1
Kerala State Industrial Development Co., Ltd
30-Jun-16
1.4
0.5
0.0
Lodha (Chandra Singh)
30-Jun-16
1.1
0.4
0.0
BNP Paribas Investment Partners Asia Ltd.
31-Mar-16
0.0
0.0
0.0
BNP Paribas Investment Partners Netherlan
31-Dec-15
0.0
0.0
0.0
Recent Activity
Buys
Investor name
BNP Paribas Investment Partners Netherlands N.V.
Sells
Value
0.00
Value
-0.72M
-0.32M
-0.00M
Shares
-0.30M
-0.13M
-0.00M
es
Page 6
| Crore
FY15
2467.3
3.0
2470.2
8.5
1,940.4
70.2
73.3
234.1
2,318.0
152.3
496.9
57.5
94.8
14.4
14.3
0.0
1.7
12.6
-114.6
3.7
FY16
1892.7
2.1
1894.7
-23.3
1,344.6
73.4
68.7
243.2
1,729.8
165.0
8.3
55.0
70.9
18.0
57.0
0.0
34.3
22.7
80.3
6.6
FY17E
1709.7
1.7
1711.3
-9.7
1,124.1
83.5
68.7
217.6
1,493.9
217.4
31.8
56.6
66.2
18.1
112.6
0.0
67.2
45.5
100.1
13.2
FY18E
1848.3
1.8
1850.1
8.1
1,221.1
83.3
73.9
231.3
1,609.5
240.6
10.7
58.4
57.5
16.7
141.3
0.0
48.3
93.0
104.6
27.0
| Crore
FY15
12.6
57.5
129.4
-296.6
94.8
-2.3
0.0
-26.4
-2.1
-28.5
0.0
133.1
-98.9
0.0
-0.7
33.4
2.6
8.9
11.5
FY16
22.7
55.0
150.4
130.1
70.9
429.1
-98.0
-33.9
21.3
-110.6
0.0
-198.3
-81.3
0.0
0.0
-279.6
39.0
11.5
50.6
FY17E
45.5
56.6
75.3
-51.3
66.2
192.4
60.0
-23.5
0.0
36.5
0.0
-150.0
-78.7
0.0
0.0
-228.7
0.2
50.6
50.9
FY18E
93.0
58.4
-49.8
28.6
57.5
187.7
20.0
-25.0
0.0
-5.0
0.0
-100.0
-74.0
0.0
0.0
-174.0
8.7
50.9
59.6
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
3.7
20.4
148.1
1.0
24.3
6.6
22.5
151.7
2.5
64.1
13.2
29.6
161.3
3.0
46.8
27.0
44.0
183.5
4.0
43.5
6.2
0.5
43.9
77.1
27.9
8.7
1.2
47.1
84.7
59.9
12.7
2.7
45.0
85.0
55.0
13.0
5.0
45.0
85.0
55.0
2.5
6.2
5.8
4.4
8.0
8.4
8.2
12.1
12.5
14.7
13.7
14.3
65.6
13.4
0.8
0.3
1.6
36.1
10.3
0.9
0.4
1.6
18.2
7.4
0.9
0.5
1.5
8.9
6.3
0.8
0.4
1.3
8.0
2.4
4.6
3.1
6.2
2.0
2.3
1.6
4.0
1.6
2.5
1.7
3.2
1.2
2.4
1.7
Balance sheet
| Crore
(Year-end March)
Liabilities
Equity Capital
Reserve and Surplus
Total Shareholders funds
Total Debt
Deferred Tax Liability
Minority Interest / Others
Total Liabilities
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
34.5
475.8
510.2
1,219.7
27.8
0.6
1,758.3
34.5
488.3
522.7
1,021.4
49.1
0.6
1,593.8
34.5
521.3
555.8
871.4
49.1
0.6
1,476.9
34.5
597.8
632.3
771.4
49.1
0.6
1,453.4
Assets
Gross Block
Less: Acc Depreciation
Net Block
Capital WIP
Total Fixed Assets
Investments
Inventory
Debtors
Loans and Advances
Other Current Assets
Cash
Total Current Assets
Current Liabilities
Provisions
Current Liabilities & Prov
Net Current Assets
Others Assets
Application of Funds
1,291.4
471.0
820.5
73.5
893.9
72.4
296.8
521.4
97.1
15.9
11.5
942.7
188.5
16.0
204.5
738.2
53.9
1,758.3
1,323.8
524.4
799.4
73.4
872.8
170.4
244.2
439.0
90.0
7.6
50.6
831.4
310.4
24.3
334.7
496.8
53.9
1,593.8
1,372.2
582.5
789.7
50.0
839.7
110.4
210.8
398.1
88.9
7.7
50.9
756.4
257.6
25.8
283.4
473.1
53.9
1,476.9
1,397.2
641.0
756.2
50.0
806.2
90.4
227.9
430.4
88.7
8.3
59.6
814.9
278.5
33.4
311.9
503.0
53.9
1,453.4
Key ratios
(Year-end March)
Per share data (|)
EPS
Cash EPS
BV
DPS
Cash Per Share (Incl Invst)
Operating Ratios (%)
EBITDA Margin
PAT Margin
Inventory days
Debtor days
Creditor days
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
RoIC
Valuation Ratios (x)
P/E
EV / EBITDA
EV / Net Sales
Market Cap / Sales
Price to Book Value
Solvency Ratios
Debt/EBITDA
Debt / Equity
Current Ratio
Quick Ratio
Page 7
RATING RATIONALE
Head Research
Pankaj Pandey
pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com
Page 8
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We /I, Chirag Shah PGDBM; Shashank Kanodia CFA MBA (Capital Markets), Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this
research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific
recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.
Page 9