Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Company Report
Shipbuilding
Ki-jong Sung
+822-768-3263
kijong.sung@dwsec.com
Ryan Kang
+822-768-3065
ryan.kang@dwsec.com
Buy (Maintain)
Target Price (12M, W)
Share Price (02/07/13, W)
Expected Return (%)
EPS Growth (13F, %)
Market EPS Growth (13F, %)
P/E (13F, x)
Market P/E (13F, x)
KOSPI
Market Cap (Wbn)
Shares Outstanding (mn)
Avg Trading Volume (60D, '000)
Avg Trading Value (60D, Wbn)
Dividend Yield (13F, %)
Free Float (%)
52-Week Low (W)
52-Week High (W)
Beta (12M, Daily Rate of Return)
Price Return Volatility (12M Daily, %, SD)
Foreign Ownership (%)
Major Shareholder(s)
Jung Mong-jun et al. (21.31%)
Treasury shares (19.36%)
National Pension Service (5.08%)
Price Performance
(%)
1M
6M
Absolute
-13.3
-15.0
Relative
-9.3
-17.4
Revenues
(Wbn)
12/10
37,342
12/11
53,712
12/12P
54,973
12/13F
56,202
12/14F
59,398
OP OP Margin
(Wbn)
(%)
5,532
14.8
4,536
8.4
1,976
3.6
2,389
4.3
3,000
5.1
NP
(Wbn)
4,154
2,559
938
1,455
1,957
260,000
209,500
24.1
55.1
18.4
10.9
9.5
1,931.77
15,922
76
228
50
1.2
59.3
193,500
346,500
1.44
2.0
19.6
12M
-29.2
-26.7
Share price
P/E
(x)
8.1
7.6
19.6
10.9
8.1
P/B EV/EBITDA
(x)
(x)
2.5
6.5
1.3
5.3
1.2
10.0
0.9
7.6
0.9
6.1
120
KOSPI
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
2/12
6/12
10/12
2/13
Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests
Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates
Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S.
February 8, 2013
Shipbuilding: Revenues dropped 3.8% YoY to W4.65tr and operating profit turned to a loss
amid decreased recognition of high-margin orders and increased recognition of low-margin
orders. We attribute this deterioration (results also fell sharply QoQ) to the large-scale
provisioning of HHI and Hyundai Samho Heavy Industries (HHIs subsidiary). Based on 3Q12
results, we estimate these provisions at W350bn.
Offshore plants: Revenues came in at W1.3tr (-1.8% YoY; +27.8% QoQ). Margins slid QoQ
and YoY, despite an increase in work related to large projects, on the completion of highmargin projects. OP margin fell to around 6%.
Onshore plants: Revenues arrived at W494bn, decreasing 12.5% YoY in line with a decline
in orders, but improving 44.3% QoQ on a rise in progress rates for major projects. Margins
climbed sharply with OP margin being estimated at 14%.
Engines & machinery: Revenues shrank 7.2% YoY and 1.2% QoQ to W602.1bn due to
weaker demand for vessel engines and lower sales prices. Engine price declines depressed
margins. OP margin is projected at 11%.
Electro electric systems: Revenues came in at W760.8bn (-0.9% YoY; +6.3% QoQ). The unit
swung to positive territory QoQ on the back of the recovery of exports and growth in
domestic electric equipment sales.
Construction equipment: Revenues decreased 12.9% YoY and 19.5% QoQ to W707.5bn
owing to slower exports to the Middle East and Russia and sluggish sales in China. Margins
also contracted with OP margin being projected at 3%.
Green energy: Revenues jumped 31.3% YoY and 68.7% QoQ to W113.2bn on the back of
increased supply of solar modules and wind power generators. However, the unit remained
in the red due to inventory impairment losses and product price declines.
Oil refining: Revenues edged up 0.5% YoY and 0.7% QoQ to W5.3tr. However, margins
contracted amid a refining margin downtrend. OP margin dropped 1.7%p YoY and 3.2%p
QoQ to 1.5%.
Financial: Revenues fell 14.1% YoY and 10.8% QoQ to W149.7bn in line with stock and
bond market slumps amid the global economic slowdown. Margins also deteriorated with
OP estimated at 9%.
Table 1. 4Q 12P earnings review
Revenues
Operating profit
OP margin
Pretax profit
Net profit
(Wbn, %, %p)
4Q11
3Q12
14,522
884
6.1
128
-25
13,199
597
4.5
1,009
729
4Q12P
Actual KDB Daewoo
14,136
54
0.4
-529
-348
13,903
564
4.1
612
442
Consensus
13,993
492
3.5
422
356
Growth
YoY
-2.7
-93.9
-5.7
TTR
RR
QoQ
7.1
-90.9
-4.1
TTR
TTR
February 8, 2013
(Wbn, W, %)
Previous
Revised
12P
13F
14F
12P
13F
14F
Revenues
54,741
58,433
63,025
54,973
56,202
59,398
Operating profit
2,485
3,331
3,782
1,993
2,389
3,000
Pretax profit
2,595
2,882
3,444
1,454
2,060
2,725
Net profit
1,829
2,133
2,549
1,038
1,555
2,057
EPS
22,750
26,750
32,218
12,347
19,145
25,752
OP margin
4.5
5.7
6.0
3.6
4.3
5.1
Net profit margin
3.2
3.5
3.9
1.9
2.8
3.5
Note: Based on consolidated K-IFRS / Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates
12P
0.4
-19.8
-44.0
-43.2
-45.7
Change
13F
-3.8
-28.3
-28.5
-27.1
-28.4
14F
-5.8
-20.7
-20.9
-19.3
-20.1
Comments
Sluggish order-taking in 2012
Won appreciation, low-priced orders
(Wbn, %, %p)
2012
2013F
1Q
2Q
3Q
4QP
1QF
2QF
3QF
4QF
Revenues
13,938 13,700 13,199 14,136 14,008 14,084 13,621 14,489
Operating profit
969
359
597
54
554
618
563
654
Pretax profit
765
209
1,009
-529
419
557
496
587
Net profit
523
134
729
-348
317
421
375
443
OP margin
7.0
2.6
4.5
0.4
4.0
4.4
4.1
4.5
Net profit margin
5.5
1.5
7.6
-3.7
2.9
5.3
4.1
1.4
Note: Based on consolidated K-IFRS / Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates
4Q12P growth
QoQ
YoY
7.1
-2.7
-90.9
-93.9
TTR
TTR
TTR
RR
2011
2012P
2013F
2014F
53,712
4,560
3,876
2,743
8.4
7.2
54,973
1,993
1,454
1,038
3.6
2.6
56,202
2,389
2,060
1,555
4.3
3.4
59,398
3,000
2,725
2,057
5.1
3.5
FCF (L)
(W)
600,000
4,000
500,000
2,000
400,000
300,000
-2,000
200,000
-4,000
100,000
-6,000
(US$bn)
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
(Wbn)
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
-500
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13F
13
14F
14
15F
15
February 8, 2013
5,000
30
4,000
10
3,000
-10
2,000
-30
1,000
-50
-70
ip
Sh
Of
in g
il d
bu
fsh
&
ore
u
I nd
e
gin
en
ia
str
lp
eri
la
n ig
&
nt s
nt
rgy
ms
ne
me
ste
ne
u ip
sy
e
q
e
c
i
&
ne
Gr
ctr
t io
es
e le
uc
g in
str
tro
En
n
c
Co
El e
g in
en
r in
ee
c
ma
e
hin
ry
Re
e
fin
Shipbuilding/Engines
Electro electric systems/Green energy
Refinery
ry
F in
ce
an
34.2%
36.4%
9.5%
4.7%
11.2%
5.6%
5.9%
Offshore/Industrial plants
Construction equipment
Financial
39.9%
13.0%
7.5%
5.9%
10.4%
6.7%
5.9%
10.3%
12.7%
38.6%
37.8%
35.5%
35.4%
37.1%
2Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12P
(Wbn)
16,000
Revenues (L)
18
12
6.2%
5.0%
(%)
(Wbn)
70,000
18
Revenues (L)
OP margin (R)
15
37.5%
39.1%
OP margin (R)
60,000
15
50,000
12
40,000
12,000
9
30,000
6
3
0
8,000
1Q11
3Q11
1Q12
3Q12
1Q13F
20,000
10,000
0
3Q13F
06
07
08
09
10
11
12P
Semi-rig Other
3%
3%
Containership
21%
Special vessels
7%
2011
2012
13F
2013 target
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
en
er
gy
en
t
tio
n
Co
ns
tru
c
Gr
ee
n
sy
st e
eq
u ip
m
ms
ery
tr ic
le c
&
ma
ch
in
El
ec
tro
e
pl a
n
us
tria
l
LNG carrier
19%
Of
f sh
ore
LPG carrier
5%
Ind
Bulk carrier
0%
En
g in
e
t&
en
g in
en
gi n
e
&
Drillship
35%
ee
rin
g
Sh
ip b
u il
d in
g
US$ 20.7bn
eri
nig
Tanker
7%
February 8, 2013
(P/E, x)
42,000
20.0x
35,000
30
Mitsui Engineering
25
Mitsubishi Heavy
15.0x
28,000
20
21,000
10.0x
15
Sumitomo Heavy
14,000
Keppel
HMD
Sembcorp
HHI
10
S HI
5.0x
7,000
(ROE, %)
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13 F
10
15
20
(P/B, x)
3.0x
2.5x
2.5
35,000
2.0x
2.0
28,000
1.5x
21,000
1.0x
42,000
Keppel
Sembcorp
1.5
Mitsubishi Heavy
1.0
S HI
Sumitomo Heavy
Mitsui Engineering
14,000
HHI
HMD
7,000
0.5
0.0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13 F
Guangzhou
Shipyard
(ROE, %)
0
10
15
20
(-1Y=100)
140
HHI
SHI
(-1Y=100)
140
DSME
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
HHI
Guangzhou Shipyard
Sembcorp
Keppel
Mitsui Engineering
40
2/12
4/12
6/12
8/12
10/12
12/12
2/13
2/12
4/12
6/12
8/12
10/12
12/12
2/13
February 8, 2013
12/11 12/12P
53,712 54,973
46,784 50,331
6,927 4,643
2,392
2,667
4,536
1,976
4,536
1,976
-659
-522
52
233
-148
-322
3,876
1,454
1,133
416
2,743
1,038
0
0
2,743
1,038
2,559
938
184
100
2,617
778
2,498
668
118
110
5,473
2,960
-504 -2,635
5.4
10.2
3.6
8.4
4.8
1.7
12/13F
56,202
51,144
5,058
2,670
2,389
2,389
-329
229
-200
2,060
505
1,555
0
1,555
1,455
100
1,295
1,185
110
3,378
1,630
6.0
4.3
2.6
12/14F
59,398
53,577
5,821
2,821
3,000
3,000
-275
175
-200
2,725
668
2,057
0
2,057
1,957
100
1,797
1,687
110
3,987
1,907
6.7
5.1
3.3
12/11 12/12P
276 -2,165
2,743
1,038
2,189
3,078
899
853
85
85
-860
-443
-4,072 -4,606
-556
-178
-483
-1,442
-364 -3,148
-786
-1,474
-888
-544
-1,583 -1,074
-60
-67
-34
406
796
184
347
2,806
1,206
3,484
0
0
-245
-411
-448
-444
-269
85
1,879
1,610
1,695
1,610
12/13F
2,670
1,555
1,823
903
86
100
-204
-230
-99
261
-505
-765
-900
-60
0
195
-1,577
-1,000
0
-153
-424
328
1,695
2,023
12/14F
2,934
2,057
1,929
903
84
100
-385
-598
-399
677
-668
-754
-900
-60
0
206
-2,534
-2,000
0
-153
-381
-354
2,023
1,669
(Wbn)
Current Assets
Cash and Cash Equivalents
AR & Other Receivables
Inventories
Other Current Assets
Non-Current Assets
Investments in Associates
Property, Plant and Equipment
Intangible Assets
Total Assets
Current Liabilities
AP & Other Payables
Short-Term Financial Liabilities
Other Current Liabilities
Non-Current Liabilities
Long-Term Financial Liabilities
Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Liabilities
Controlling Interests
Capital Stock
Capital Surplus
Retained Earnings
Non-Controlling Interests
Stockholders' Equity
12/11
23,076
1,610
9,525
6,478
2,359
25,924
973
15,565
2,324
49,001
25,491
14,339
8,903
2,249
5,334
3,224
1,954
30,824
16,379
380
1,100
15,399
1,797
18,177
12/12P
25,519
1,695
10,280
6,927
2,749
24,335
835
15,706
2,290
49,854
23,243
11,654
9,060
2,529
7,863
5,550
2,158
31,106
16,833
380
1,100
16,104
1,915
18,748
12/13F
26,237
2,023
10,510
7,025
2,810
24,249
635
15,703
2,264
50,486
22,560
11,915
8,060
2,585
8,037
5,550
2,332
30,597
17,864
380
1,100
17,405
2,025
19,889
12/14F
27,040
1,669
11,107
7,425
2,970
24,114
435
15,700
2,240
51,154
22,385
12,592
7,060
2,732
7,237
4,550
2,532
29,622
19,398
380
1,100
19,209
2,135
21,532
Forecasts/Valuations (Summarized)
P/E (x)
P/CF (x)
P/B (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
EPS (W)
CFPS (W)
BPS (W)
DPS (W)
Payout ratio (%)
Dividend Yield (%)
Revenue Growth (%)
EBITDA Growth (%)
Operating Profit Growth (%)
EPS Growth (%)
Accounts Receivable Turnover (x)
Inventory Turnover (x)
Accounts Payable Turnover (x)
ROA (%)
ROE (%)
ROIC (%)
Liability to Equity Ratio (%)
Current Ratio (%)
Net Debt to Equity Ratio (%)
Interest Coverage Ratio (x)
February 8, 2013
Stock
Ratings
Industry
Ratings
Buy
(W)
Trading Buy
800,000
Hold
600,000
Sell
400,000
Overweight
200,000
Neutral
Underweight
2/11
8/11
2/12
8/12
1/13
* Ratings and Target Price History (Share price (----), Target price (----), Not covered (), Buy (), Trading Buy (), Hold (), Sell ())
* Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months.
* Although it is not part of the official ratings at Daewoo Securities, we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term material development.
* The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on the analysts estimate of future earnings.
The achievement of the target price may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions.
Analyst Certification
The research analysts who prepared this report (the Analysts) are registered with the Korea Financial Investment Association and are subject to Korean securities
regulations. They are neither registered as research analysts in any other jurisdiction nor subject to the laws and regulations thereof. Opinions expressed in this publication
about the subject securities and companies accurately reflect the personal views of the Analysts primarily responsible for this report. Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. policy
prohibits its Analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the Analysts area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer,
director or advisory board member of the subject companies. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits
from the subject companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. No part of the compensation of the Analysts was, is,
or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report but, like all employees of Daewoo Securities, the Analysts receive
compensation that is impacted by overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking,
proprietary trading and private client division. At the time of publication of this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of
interest of the Analyst or Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. except as otherwise stated herein.
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and opinions contained herein have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith, but such information has not been independently verified and
Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions
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February 8, 2013
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