Cost & Schedule

Trend, Analysis &Forecasts Procedure

Code du document : DOP3000-PRC-014-0-03

B&R-C

Date :10 November 2003

Indice de revision: 0
Page 1 of 5

Mots cls: Cost, Schedule, Trend, Analysis, Forecasts

Cost & Schedule

Trend, Analysis & Forecasts
Procedure

Evolution du document :
Date
10.11.03

Indice
0

Objet de la modification
Creation

Rdige par : N.Benhalla

Vrifie par: M.Robaine
Approuve par: T.Mokrane

NB/ La procdure signe est disponible au niveau de la Direction Qualit.

Le prsent document est la proprit exclusive de B&R-C.

Cost & Schedule

Trend, Analysis &Forecasts Procedure
B&R-C

1.

Code du document : DOP3000-PRC-014-0-03

Date :10 November 2003

Indice de revision: 0
Page 2 of 5

PURPOSE

The procedure addresses the requirement for a plan to ensure that project cost & schedule
forecasts are prepared at regular intervals and all relevant factors are considered in the forecast
preparation.
All members of the project team must be involved and not only project controls specialists. Each
member must be made aware of his/her level of involvement and responsibilities in making the
cost forecasting a success.
To ensure success, regular review meetings are essential.
The approach must take into account the specific project considerations which are unique to the
project scope.

2.

APPLICABILTY

This process map applies to all BRC projects regardless of contract type. It identifies the
personnel who are responsible for the development and implementation of a contingency
management plan.

3.

DEFINITIONS

No specific words defined

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Cost & Schedule

Trend, Analysis &Forecasts Procedure
Indice de revision: 0
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Code du document : DOP3000-PRC-014-0-03

B&R-C

Date :10 November 2003

Legend

Meeting (plus attendees)

RISK Business Risk

Process Measure

Local/Project Variation

END End

Activity Steps

Notes

HSE HSE Alert

X X

Client

Additional Note

Decision

Business Unit

Involved in Activity

Estimating

Start

Construction Management

ST

Planning

Accountable for Activity

Cost Control

Engineering Management

Responsible and
Accountable for Activity

Controls Management

Responsible
for Activity

Project Management

ST

1.0

TRENDS AND ANALYSIS

1.1
1.1

Monitor rates, process and quantities

which are being committed, for
engineering manhours, construction
works and purchases

1.2 Compare with those included in the

estimate Baseline Case and identify
trends for all categories of work
1.3
1.3

Monitor quantities installed and costs

incurred to identify Unit Cost items.
Trend with projected total quantities and
include in overall Project Cost Forecast.

1.4
1.4

Analyse trends and prepare cost

forecasts based on analysis and
incorporate into the overall Project Cost
Forecast

1.5 Review Network activities and reschedule to bring schedule back on

track.
2.0 PREPARE FORECASTS
2.1 Facilitate review meetings of all
information analysed for the reporting
period

2.2
2.2

Prepare Forecast at Completion for

Cost and Schedule

SCHEDULE UPDATING
DOP3000-PRC-011-0-03

2.3
2.3

Run Risk Analysis on cost and schedule

forecast

RISK MANAGEMENT
DOP3000-PRC-009-0-03

2.4
2.4

Evaluate schedule and cost deviations

and take action to correct adverse
trends

2.5 Issue forecast information in agreed

format
2.6 Review with Client and Business Unit

X
X

END

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Cost & Schedule

Trend, Analysis &Forecasts Procedure
B&R-C

Code du document : DOP3000-PRC-014-0-03

Date :10 November 2003

Indice de revision: 0
Page 4 of 5

NOTES
Note 1.1 Forecasting the cost and schedule outcome of the project is possibly the most
important aspect of the project controls role in the support of project management.
The first forecast at completion should be prepared and included in the first monthly
report. It must be based on trending and analysis performed by the project controls
representatives in conjunction with all members of the project team. It should not
be a computer generated number.
Some of the elements to be considered are:
Equipment - is all equipment identified?
Bulks - are Bills of Quantities correct?
Engineering - is scope fully defined, is productivity good or bad?
Management - is proper organisation in place, are durations realistic?
Construction Prelims - time related, reconcile to latest schedule
Construction Quantities - continually re-assess from updated drawings and field
measurements
Labour Costs - may be relevant in some forms of contract, if so, track
Plant - ensure realistic durations and prompt demobilisation after requirements
Third Party - monitor duration and rates
Claims - keep good records to defend against subcontractor claims and to prepare
for BRC claims to the Client
Changes - are all potential changes included in the forecast?
Note 1.3 Prepare graphs over time of productivity, labour rates, commodity prices etc., both
on a period and cumulative basis. Analyse the past performance and make a
realistic assessment on how each of these relevant items is likely to perform in the
future. This should take into account the likely effect of previously corrected, or
uncorrected, deviations.
Note 1.4 Quantities should be continually monitored from revised drawings and from field
measurements to provide the best forecast of total quantity at completion. Forecast
Quantity at Completion = Installed Quantity + Quantity to-go.

Le prsent document est la proprit exclusive de B&R-C.

Cost & Schedule

Trend, Analysis &Forecasts Procedure
B&R-C

Code du document : DOP3000-PRC-014-0-03

Date :10 November 2003

Indice de revision: 0
Page 5 of 5

Note 2.2 The preparation of the cost forecast shall be calculated from the assessed total
quantity for each item and the rate. The rate may be a fixed price rate, as in ReMeasurable contract, or variable, and should include the assessed productivity or
cost factor expected for the completion of the work.
The schedule completion date shall be determined from the aggregation of
Remaining Durations and the Re-Analysis of the network.
Cost forecasts must reflect the schedule forecast on relevant items and activities.
Note 2.3 At certain intervals during the project life, a Risk Analysis shall be modelled on the
final forecast of cost and schedule. This is recommended at monthly intervals when
exposure is likely.
Note 2.4 A review of all items which show a significant actual or potential deviation from
plans shall be undertaken. Corrective action plans shall be prepared by the project
team from information presented by the controls personnel and other project team
members.

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