Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Value Research
November 2016
Volume X, Number 5
EDITORIAL POLICY
26
COVER STORY
How to find
companies
with moats
Editor
Dhirendra Kumar
Special Correspondent
Mohammed Ekramul Haque
Research & Editorial
Ashish Jain, Kashyap
Sriram, Mohit Khanna,
Neil Borate, Prasobh,
Vibhu Vats & Vikas Vardhan
36
INTERVIEW
41
BOOK REVIEW
Design
Mukul Ojha, Kiran Sindhwal
Being
Bandhan
Production
Hira Lal
Data source for stocks
AceEquity
Advertising Contact:
Mumbai: 22838665 / 22838198
Delhi: 22457916 / 22457918
Venkat K Naidu +91-9664048666
Biswa Ranjan Palo +91-9664075875
Infosys:
Straight
from the
board
R Seshasayee,
Non-executive
chairman, Infosys
Bandhan by Tamal
Bandyopadhyay is
an engrossing
story of how the
microfinance
player Bandhan is
making a
difference in the
country
Columns
by
24
33
43
45
47
EDIT
THE
CHARTIST
STRAIGHT
TALK
MAINSTREET
GENERALLY
SPEAKING
OFFBEAT
DHIRENDRA
KUMAR
The end of
trends
Those who think
that riding trends
in the market is a
surefire way to
make money cant
be too lucky for
too long
by
DEVANGSHU
DATTA
Out of cash
The increasing
use of electronic
payments over
cash transactions
will change the
economy in a
fundamental way,
but markets are
yet to factor in
this
MARKET COMPASS
Index watch
Big moves
Safe turns risky
Markets take a timeout
Sensexs 30th anniversary
IPO update
Domestic pure-plays make hay
19
ANALYSTS DIARY
Dubious discounts
Lions lose their share
by
ANAND
TANDON
by
SAURABH
MUKHERJEA
by
by
VIVEK
KAUL
SANJEEV
PANDIYA
Spinning
profits
The MRT
factor
You live
and learn
Imperfectly
rational
A portfolio
comprising
companies
undergoing
demergers and
those that have
been spun off
can decisively
beat the market
What keeps
entrepreneurs
and writers
going on is
overconfidence
in their abilities.
And it is indeed
needed.
Solid gains
Bottoming out?
49
Our scorecard
52
62
54
STOCK IDEAS
DISCLAIMER
The contents of Wealth Insight published by Value Research India Private Limited (the Magazine) are not intended to serve as professional advice or guidance and the Magazine takes no responsibility or liability, express or implied, whatsoever for any investment
decisions made or taken by the readers of this Magazine based on its contents thereof. You are strongly advised to verify the contents before taking any investment or other decision based on the contents of this Magazine. The Magazine is meant for general reading
purposes only and is not meant to serve as a professional guide for investors. The readers of this Magazine should exercise due caution and/or seek independent professional advice before entering into any commercial or business relationship or making any
investment decision or entering into any financial obligation based on any information, statement or opinion which is contained, provided or expressed in this Magazine.
The Magazine contains information, statements, opinions, statistics and materials that have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and the publishers of the Magazine have made best efforts to avoid any errors and omissions, however the
publishers of this Magazine make no guarantees and warranties whatsoever, express or implied, regarding the timeliness, completeness, accuracy, adequacy, fullness, functionality and/or reliability of the information, statistics, statements, opinions and
materials contained and/or expressed in this Magazine or of the results obtained, direct or consequential, from the use of such information, statistics, statements, opinions and materials. The publishers of this Magazine do not certify and/or endorse any
opinions contained, provided, published or expressed in this Magazine.Reproduction of this publication in any form or by any means whatsoever without prior written permission of the publishers of this Magazine is strictly prohibited. All disputes shall be subject
to the jurisdiction of Delhi courts only.
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
EDIT
DHIRENDRA KUMAR
MARKET
C MPASS
11.48
Price to earnings
Price to book
8.43
1.72
Market cap
(` lakh crore)
Top gainers/losers
Company name
Price (`)
Marico
250
276
37.97
Godrej Consumer
1573
28.43
200
Godrej Industries
453
24.22
150
153
13.73
6953
13.65
Emami
1169
8.26
Hindustan Unilever
842
6.41
United Breweries
949
5.29
Britannia Industries
3331
4.79
GSK Consumer
6205
3.37
ITC
240
2.99
Dabur India
280
2.98
920
1.48
Nifty FMCG
Nifty
100
50
United Spirits
2416
-22.84
Jubilant Foodworks
1044
-32.86
Valuations
12
Company name
8
4
0
Price to
book
Britannia Industries
50.38
20.78
0.6
42.54
21.84
1.09
Dabur India
51.12
16.54
0.8
Emami
91.26
18.9
0.6
37.68
10.01
1.13
Dividend yield is 28 basis points higher than the five-year median of 1.44%.
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
October 2016
70.96
13.52
0.37
8.86
0.39
Hindustan Unilever
43.42
37.83
1.9
ITC
29.15
8.14
2.36
Jubilant Foodworks
66.25
8.76
0.24
Marico
47.65
12.62
2.44
53.31
14.93
0.52
16.95
3.27
1.47
United Breweries
78.54
11.11
0.12
United Spirits
35.02
12.35
Dividend
yield (%)
141.96
Godrej Industries
2.5
September 2011
Price to
earnings
MARKET
C MPASS
Our large-cap universe has 96 large companies, making the top 70 per cent of the
total market capitalisation. The list mentions the stocks that have fluctuated most
wildly in the last three months.
IDFC Bank
The stock gained on the possibility of the banks
merger with its parent, IDFC.
Idea Cellular
The coming of Reliance Jio could dent the bottom
lines of telecom companies.
Petronet LNG
Q1 profit grew over 50% YoY.
Hindustan Zinc
A recovery in metal prices lifted the stock prices of
metal companies.
Bajaj Finserv
Good Q1 numbers, along with approval for stock split
and bonus, boosted the stock price.
Rural Electrification
Being available at throwaway valuations, the stock
witnessed value buying.
Piramal Enterprises
Strong Q4 FY16 and Q1 FY17 numbers led to a rally in
the stock price.
Bajaj Finance
The company split the stock and issued bonus shares,
which further sparked a rally.
Eicher Motors
Strong outlook and demand for Royal Enfield and
Bullet motorcycles resulted in a rally in the stock.
3M returns (%)
Price to earnings
3Y avg RoE (%)
46.5
55.7
467
-34.8
10.9
13.9
2,266
22.3
38.4
28.8
15.6
1,044
-1.8
22.7
14.1
20.1
7,283
1.4
31.1
27.2
23.7
2,914
7.7
34.5
12.7
11.3
12,232
-20.5
31.9
4.8
23.0
5,570
10.8
19.2
32.8
9.0
804
61.1
24.2
42.0
20.4
1,427
31.4
24.6
55.3
35.6
1,309
42.0
75
52
111
72
402
291
240
196
3,189
2,433
643
478
132
100
1,857
1,557
1,079
869
24,645
19,775
Data as on October 17, 2016
MARKET
C MPASS
Our mid-cap universe has 221 mid-sized companies, making the next 20 per cent of
the total market capitalisation. The list mentions the stocks that have fluctuated most
wildly in the last three months.
Welspun India
The company is facing ire from its customers due to
low-quality products being pushed as premium ones.
Sundram Fasteners
The companys profit jumped almost 100% in Q1.
Q4FY16 had seen the profit grow fourfold.
Balkrishna Inds.
Q1 profit grew 46% YoY. A drop in rubber prices also
benefitted tyre companies.
Escorts
Q1 profit grew 34% YoY. The company is likely to
benefit from a good monsoon.
Bombay Burmah
The board has approved a fund-raising plan of `250
crore.
Ceat
A drop in rubber prices is likely to be good for tyre
companies.
Indian Bank
Public-sector banks showed a sharp recovery after
getting thrashed to multi-year lows.
Dalmia Bharat
The sharp rally in cement stocks had a sector-wide
impact; strong Q1 numbers helped as well.
3M returns (%)
Price to earnings
3Y avg RoE (%)
-50.8
7.6
30.9
759
40.6
115.5
23.5
6.6
467
54.7
50.5
24.7
15.1
244
37.9
56.7
18.2
24.6
565
13.6
65.6
47.9
7.6
100
-11.2
55.6
42.3
-36
-223.1
49.6
12.0
25.8
417
38.7
33.3
12.6
8.0
803
-17.6
54.5
69.8
0.9
327
49.5
49.5
21.1
9.2
379
27.8
112
55
650
302
284
189
1,080
689
391
236
628
404
1,287
860
209
157
1,904
1,232
117
78
Data as on October 17, 2016
MARKET
C MPASS
Our small-cap universe (minimum market capitalisation `400 crore) has 679 smallcap companies, making the last 10 per cent of the total market capitalisation. The list
mentions the stocks that have fluctuated most wildly in the last three months.
GTL Infrastructure
Lenders to the company agree to converting loans to
equity and selling the stake to a strategic investor.
Bhageria Industries
Q1 profit rises about 50% YoY.
BPL
The company is turning around. Q1 profit grew over
315% YoY.
Aptech
News of a high-profile investor buying into the
company led to a stock rally.
Signet Fincom
The stock has gained without any specific reason in
sight. Investors need to be cautious.
Gitanjali Gems
The company is turning around. Q1 profit grew
185% YoY.
Jindal Stainless
The company got clearance to transfer land to Jindal
United Steel and Jindal Coke.
3M returns (%)
Price to earnings
3Y avg RoE (%)
135.7
-150.5
-486
9.0
179.6
26.3
48.6
18
88.6
180.1
31.1
16.6
31
58.6
141.6
-10.9
1
-50.7
86.8
2.2
-44
-198.5
132.8
13.9
-30.9
32
89.6
139.9
88.5
7.4
8
-37.7
112.0
69.2
22.3
16
7.1
85.2
5.0
2.1
170
-29.3
128.4
-82.1
-656
11.4
3
613
219
1,256
448
213
88
97
52
91
39
175
73
36
17
75
41
37
16
Data as on October 17, 2016
MARKET
C MPASS
Current P/E
Median P/E
60
40
20
0
Britannia Colgate
Dabur
India
HUL
ITC
Marico
Jyothy Lab
CCL Products
LT Foods
KRBL
Heritage Foods
Emami
Dabur
Marico
Britannia
KCP Sugar
ITC
Kokuyo Camlin
Dalmia Bharat Sugar
E.I.D. Parry
Hindustan Unilever
ADF Foods
Mcleod Russel
United Breweries
Godfrey Phillips
Jay Shree Tea
Gujarat Ambuja
Tata Global Beverages
Tata Coffee
Zydus Wellness
United Spirits
Eveready
Agro Tech Foods
Balrampur Chini
Tilaknagar Industries
21.57
20.24
19.35
16.92
16.49
16.00
15.65
14.39
13.40
12.59
11.89
11.36
11.11
10.59
10.58
10.07
8.95
8.32
8.05
7.58
7.08
5.94
5.57
4.98
4.61
4.27
1.66
-1.50
-1.81
11.57
Company
4.94
3.52
1.21
Britannia Colgate
2.30
Dabur
India
3.83
2.30
2.13
HUL
ITC
2.37
Marico
Britannia
8-Sep-10
3.56
Colgate
8-Jan-08
2.23
Dabur India
16-May-06
4.88
Emami
30-Mar-07
GSK Consumer
4-Jun-13
Not yet
Godrej Consumer
3-Apr-06
4.99
HUL
24-Feb-00
Not yet
ITC
7-Jan-08
3.23
Marico
31-Mar-06
MARKET
C MPASS
10.8
7.6
Dec 15
Sep 15
Jun 15
Mar 15
Dec 14
Sep 14
Jun 14
Mar 14
Dec 13
Sep 13
Jun 13
Mar 13
Dec 12
6.6
Sep 16
Jun 16
8.5
Mar 16
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
Sep 12
Feb
16
Mar
16
Apr
16
May
16
Jun
16
-3
-11
12
19
-19
-11
20
14
Media
-6
-12
11
22
Auto
-8
-7
14
20
Midcap100
-7
-7
10
15
Healthcare
-4
-7
-2
-1
-4
NBFC
-8
-10
10
11
-1
15
Metal
-7
-2
12
10
-2
32
Real Estate
-10
-13
17
10
-4
-2
12
Technology
-8
11
-1
-3
-3
-3
-2
-8
Banks - Pvt
-6
-10
14
-3
12
Consumer
-6
-4
-4
Cement
-3
-3
18
10
-4
38
-12
-9
14
10
-2
-4
Utilities
-6
-14
12
-5
Telecom
-20
-4
-1
-8
-8
-21
Nifty 50
-5
-8
11
-2
Sectors
Oil
Banks - PSU
Cap. Goods
Jul
16
Aug
16
Sep YTD
16 chg (%)
MARKET
C MPASS
23
13
0
1986-90
11
1991-95
1996-2000 2001-05
2006-10
2011-
The year 1996 witnessed a big churn in the index, when 15 new companies made it to the Sensex;
the above data for churn excludes the cases of ICICI Ltd. being replaced with ICICI Bank in 2002 and
Sterlite being replaced with Vedanta in 2013.
Source: Capitaline
Source: Capitaline
*Gross value added is estimated as interest + employee cost + profit + depreciation + other expenses (not amounting to intermediate consumption)
MARKET
C MPASS
IPO update
Year 2016 has proved to be particularly good for IPOs, with new issues
raking over `25,000 crore in the last 12 months
Issue size
(` cr)
Issue
price (`)
Listing date
Listing
gain (%)
Adj listing
price (`)
Current
price (`)
43.84
1,162
472
19-Oct-16
20.8
570
648
13.6
0.3
8.06
417
202
04-Oct-16
-5.9
190
188
-0.9
-0.9
10.48
6,057
334
29-Sep-16
-1.5
329
325
-1.2
0.9
GNA Axles
54.88
130
207
26-Sep-16
20.0
249
255
2.7
-0.8
2.53
894
860
23-Sep-16
4.7
900
855
-5.0
-2.1
69.62
853
225
31-Aug-16
21.6
274
313
14.3
-1.4
2.66
176
268
12-Aug-16
13.8
305
340
11.5
-0.3
20.95
664
219
11-Aug-16
9.6
240
229
-4.4
0.7
Company name
Endurance Technologies
HPL Electric & Power
116.02
290
896
01-Aug-16
35.0
1,210
2,171
79.4
0.2
11.69
1,243
710
21-Jul-16
-6.1
667
622
-6.7
1.3
MARKET
C MPASS
Company name
Subscription
ratio
Issue size
(` cr)
Issue
price (`)
Listing date
Listing
gain (%)
Adj listing
price (`)
Current
price (`)
Quess Corp
144.50
409
317
12-Jul-16
57.4
499
597
19.6
0.9
Mahanagar Gas
64.54
1,040
421
01-Jul-16
28.3
540
761
40.9
3.4
1.83
737
215
19-May-16
0.3
216
321
48.9
10.5
40.68
888
210
10-May-16
8.1
227
464
104.6
8.9
Thyrocare Technologies
73.55
479
446
09-May-16
48.4
662
660
-0.3
9.3
Equitas Holdings
17.21
1,531
110
21-Apr-16
30.9
144
178
23.9
8.4
Infibeam Incorporation
1.11
540
432
04-Apr-16
6.0
458
907
98.0
10.5
1.21
79
45
01-Apr-16
5.2
47
47
-1.3
11.1
1.56
357
218
30-Mar-16
-3.8
210
231
10.3
10.8
10.80
325
321
18-Feb-16
-5.0
305
246
-19.3
18.7
TeamLease Services
66.02
436
850
12-Feb-16
1.2
860
1,003
16.6
22.1
Precision Camshafts
1.91
418
186
08-Feb-16
-12.3
163
179
10.0
15.6
Narayana Hrudayalaya
8.70
613
250
06-Jan-16
16.4
291
351
20.6
10.5
Alkem Laboratories
44.29
1,350
1,050
23-Dec-15
31.4
1,380
1,685
22.1
8.6
33.41
638
550
23-Dec-15
30.4
717
1,024
42.8
8.6
SH Kelkar & Co
27.08
517
180
16-Nov-15
23.3
222
302
35.9
9.0
Interglobe Aviation
6.15
2,304
765
10-Nov-15
11.9
856
950
11.0
9.0
1.82
1,194
328
02-Nov-15
-4.6
313
229
-26.8
5.7
Prabhat Dairy
0.77
474
115
21-Sep-15
0.0
115
131
12.9
6.6
Sadbhav Infrastructure
2.24
294
103
16-Sep-15
7.5
111
108
-2.6
7.4
1.15
159
178
10-Sep-15
-15.7
150
183
19.9
8.6
1.34
75
65
10-Sep-15
-7.7
60
154
134.3
8.6
Navkar Corporation
2.85
443
155
09-Sep-15
-1.9
152
199
27.4
8.2
273
640
26-Aug-15
-6.3
600
485
-16.9
7.9
Syngene International
32.05
550
250
11-Aug-15
18.0
295
506
57.3
0.6
Manpasand Beverages
1.40
441
320
09-Jul-15
-9.1
291
723
103.3
1.4
0.01
488
378
26-May-15
0.8
76
124
41.8
1.4
2.04
610
625
14-May-15
-4.0
600
449
-18.3
2.2
1.11
324
63
06-May-15
0.0
63
43
-22.7
3.4
VRL Logistics
74.26
474
205
30-Apr-15
40.5
288
327
9.0
2.6
Inox Wind
18.60
1,060
325
09-Apr-15
23.1
400
224
-31.4
-1.9
Adlabs Entertainment
0.60
366
180
06-Apr-15
-6.7
168
101
-28.0
-1.0
Ortel Communications
0.75
217
181
19-Mar-15
0.0
181
148
-11.9
-0.9
7.83
350
645
19-Dec-14
-9.3
585
456
-12.7
1.4
Shemaroo Entertainment
7.39
132
170
01-Oct-14
5.9
180
312
30.7
2.7
Sharda Cropchem
59.97
352
156
23-Sep-14
62.9
254
419
27.3
2.3
Snowman Logistics
59.75
197
47
12-Sep-14
59.6
75
69
-3.9
1.7
Wonderla Holidays
38.06
181
125
09-May-14
31.8
165
405
44.4
8.5
Just Dial
1.88
719
530
05-Jun-13
11.3
590
455
-7.4
11.3
1.65
270
172
01-Apr-13
-4.1
165
778
54.7
11.8
Data as on October 19, 2016. Returns for the periods more than one year are annualised.
MARKET
C MPASS
Nifty weights
(Aug-16, %)
Q1FY17
Q1FY17
Q1FY17
sales growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) PAT growth (%)
FY17E
PAT growth (%)
FY18E
PAT growth (%)
Cement
3.4
5.0
37.9
57.2
35.7
31.5
24.1
Consumer disc.
14.7
9.7
-13.3
-24.2
23.4
17.6
19.4
Financials
31.7
NA
NA
-2.3
19.3
26.7
20.1
FMCG
8.9
7.9
8.4
10.6
12.3
18.4
31.3
Industrials
5.0
3.0
-9.0
6.0
14.3
28.8
26.6
IT
13.8
14.6
14.1
11.4
6.4
10.8
16.2
Metals
1.4
-7.5
23.0
174.6
36.4
14.9
8.3
-12.2
4.9
9.7
-7.5
8.3
13.1
Pharma
6.5
8.8
4.0
4.4
22.0
22.0
25.9
Power
1.7
4.1
11.2
3.6
37.0
15.4
13.0
Telecom
2.3
7.9
12.8
131.1
-15.7
43.0
28.0
Utilities
2.5
4.0
19.3
-5.6
3.3
19.0
13.3
Growth numbers are year-on-year. Source: ICICI Securities report, October 3, 2016.
ANALYSTS
DIARY
Dubious discounts
Kothari Products
508
-901
278
Smartlink Network
194
-176
191
63 Moons Technologies
371
-79
121
RS Software (India)
193
24
88
OMDC
1,286
487
62
MOIL
4,591
1,739
62
954
417
56
Swelect Energy
355
167
53
Seamec
250
118
53
Rajesh Exports
14,466
6,997
52
Novartis India
2,212
1,099
50
ANALYSTS
DIARY
60%
90%
50
75
60
40
45
30
50%
50%
Mar15
Mar16
Mar14
Mar11
Mar12
Mar13
Mar10
Mar09
Mar08
Mar07
Mar05
Mar06
Mar04
Mar03
Mar02
Mar01
Mar00
Mar99
Mar98
Mar14
Mar15
Mar16
Mar10
Mar11
Mar12
Mar13
Mar08
Mar09
Mar02
Mar03
Mar04
Mar05
Mar06
Mar07
Mar96
Mar97
Mar98
Mar99
Mar00
Mar01
Mar97
30
20
40
44
30
38
20
32
26
Mar15
Mar16
Oct16
Mar11
Mar12
Mar13
Mar14
Mar09
Mar10
Mar03
Mar04
Mar05
Mar06
Mar07
Mar08
Mar97
Mar98
Mar99
Mar00
Mar01
Mar02
Mar14
Mar15
Mar16
Mar10
Mar11
Mar12
Mar13
Mar08
Mar09
Mar02
Mar03
Mar04
Mar05
Mar06
Mar07
Mar96
Mar97
Mar98
Mar99
Mar00
Mar01
10
ANALYSTS
DIARY
Solid gains
Gujarat Gas
Gujarat Gas gross margins hit an all-time high of `7.2
per standard cubic metres (scm) in the last quarter,
largely on account of the fall in gas prices.
The company, in the past, suffered from its highpriced gas contract with Qatars RasGas. As a result,
the companys net profit fell by 71 per cent in FY16.
This caused the company to lag behind its peers as
well as the stock market. Subsequent re-negotiation
with RasGas from January 2016 onwards as well as
the decline in spot LNG prices have brought the company substantial relief. Gujarat Gas could stand to see
151 per cent (YoY) jump in FY17 earnings per share
(ICICI Securities estimates) and its FY16FY19 earnings per share is likely to compound at 60 per cent
annually, driven by annual volume growth of 11 per
cent and persistent high margins.
Indraprastha Gas
Low gas costs have helped Indraprastha Gas see its
margins move up from `7.69.6
per scm in FY11FY6 to its
GAS
all-time high of `10.7 per scm in Q1FY17. This margin upmove is expected to improve further as gas
prices have fallen further. Indraprasthas gas cost has
fallen from $6.68.8 per mmbtu in FY14FY16 to $5.1
5.4 per mmbtu. Gross margins could trade in the
range of `10.7 11.5 per scm (ICICI Securities estimates), assuming gas prices at $3.1-3.5 per mmbtu in
FY17FY19. This is likely to result in Indraprasthas
earnings per share to compound at 25 per cent
during this period.
GAIL
The countrys largest gas-transmission company has
been down in the last couple of years since it saw
peak-market valuations in October 2014. The companys earnings were hit by its petrochemical losses and
the fall in LPG production. The earnings per share for
FY16 came in at `18 per share a 12-year low. Things
are looking up for the company though.
Besides the lower gas price, GAIL also stands to
gain from the recent Petroleum and Natural Gas
Regulatory Boards (PNGRB) hike in the transmission tariff that the company earns. Gas-transmission
EBITDA is expected to grow by 22 per cent annually
between FY16 and FY19. Its petrochemical business
is expected to return to black, while LPG too is set to
gain from lower gas prices. GAIL is expected to see
its earnings per share compound annually at 46 per
cent between FY16 and FY19 on the back of the low
base of FY16. The company is one of the best bets in
the gas space not only because of the fall in gas price
but also because of the multiple triggers of higher
tariffs and better-performing petrochemical business. WI
Mohammed Ekramul Haque
ekram@valueresearch.in
ANALYSTS
DIARY
Bottoming out?
Source: China: cyclical bottom, DBS Group Research, October 19, 2016.
Source: China: cyclical bottom, DBS Group Research, October 19, 2016.
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THE CHARTIST
Out of cash
The increasing use of electronic payments over cash transactions will change
the economy in a fundamental way, but markets are yet to factor in this
DEVANGSHU DATTA
NOT MUCH
THE CHARTIST
COVER STORY
How to find
companies
with moats
when for every rupee a company invests, it can generate a value of more than a rupee. This return on
invested capital is a measure of a companys capital
efficiency and can be utilised to understand the
source of a companys moat. In this issue of Wealth
Insight, we dig into return on invested capital to
uncover the source of a companys moat and what
gives it the position it commands. Read on.
COVER STORY
Spotting a moat
Did you know that the source of Hindustan Unilevers
moat in the Indian FMCG space could be something
more than just its brands? That ratings company Credit
Analysis and Research (CARE) derives its moat from
the lucrative large-ticket bank-loan and bond-rating
industry? Or that Castrol India gets its moat from both
high consumer demand as well as the technological
superiority of its products?
We know companies with moats. These are entities
competitors find it tough to compete with. Will you use
an adhesive cheaper than Fevicol? Or a low-cost health
drink as compared to Horlicks? Or how about a local
brand of cigarettes?
We understand companies that have a stranglehold
over their customers but what we, as investors, often
dont ask is what the source of the moat is.
What makes Hindustan Unilever or Britannia tick? Is
it just their brands or something else, too? What about
Oracle and how does its competitive advantage differ
from that of TCS?
1HWRSHUDWLQJSURWDIWHUWD[123$7
Invested capital (IC)
123$7
Sales
Sales
Invested capital
The measure of NOPAT/sales measures the profitability per unit, while sales/invested capital measures
capital efficiency. When both the above terms are multiplied, sales cancels out, leaving NOPAT/invested capital or return on invested capital (ROIC).
But these two terms taken individually can be used
6KDUHKROGHUVIXQGV0LQRULW\LQWHUHVW
Invested capital = 1RQFXUUHQWOLDELOLWLHV6KRUWWHUPERUURZLQJV
&XUUHQWPDWXULWLHVRIORQJWHUPGHEWV
COVER STORY
PRODUCTION ADVANTAGES
Complexity
Selling foodgrains is a simple business. Companies
buy foodgrains from farmers, package them, put a
brand name on them and sell them. Many other businesses are not so simple. Castrol, for instance, prides
itself on the high-quality engine oil and specialty
lubricants. The complex nature of its specialised products means that a new entrant will find it difficult to
imitate its products. There are other complex businesses. Technology and pharmaceuticals often fall into this
category. Table 1 mentions some complex businesses.
Patents
Patents and copyrights allow a firm to have ownership
of a product or process that no competitor can easily
imitate. 3M India enjoys the benefits of patents that its
parent owns. It enjoys a NOPAT margin of only 8.8 per
cent, but a 1.5 times capital-efficiency ratio improves
3Ms ROIC to 13 per cent. Other businesses that enjoy
patents are Abbott, Bosch, Monsanto and GSK Pharma.
Table 2 lists companies that enjoy patent benefits.
Resource uniqueness
When a company has access to a resource or an input
that its competitors do not have, the company enjoys a
resource advantage. Astral Poly Technik operates at a
NOPAT margin of only 7.6 per cent, but it has rights to
use chlorinated PVC pipes (CPVC) PVC pipes that are
more heat-resistant by way of a licence from the
US-based Lubrizol, which owns the CPVC technology.
This helps Astral report a capital efficiency of 1.7 times,
which pulls its ROIC to 12.83 per cent. Other companies
that enjoy resource uniqueness include PI Industries
and Dhanuka Agritech. Both benefit from the licences
they have from innovator companies, which allow them
access to the inputs competitors do not have. Table 3
points to the companies with resource uniqueness.
NOPAT/
sales (%)
Sales/
IC (times)
ROIC
(%)
Castrol India
15.77
6.10
96.22
Tata Elxsi
13.35
2.02
26.96
TCS
19.64
1.63
31.97
CRISIL
17.53
1.62
28.40
Infosys
16.92
1.09
18.39
Divis Laboratories
27.28
0.83
22.61
Sun Pharma
22.21
0.64
14.21
Oracle Finan
22.27
0.61
13.55
Ratings
IT
Healthcare
Healthcare
IT
Distribution network
NOPAT/
sales (%)
Sales/
IC (times)
ROIC
(%)
Abbott India
7.96
1.59
12.65
3M India
8.86
1.51
13.35
GSK Pharma
7.35
1.48
10.88
Bosch
8.17
1.28
10.43
Monsanto India
16.14
1.27
20.42
Healthcare
Diversified
Healthcare
Capital Goods
Agri
COVER STORY
Table 3: Resource uniqueness
NOPAT/
sales (%)
Sales/
IC (times)
ROIC
(%)
7.61
1.69
12.83
PI Industries
12.78
Dhanuka Agritech
11.57
La Opala RG
23.42
Hindustan Zinc
38.55
Plastic Products
NOPAT/
sales (%)
Sales/
IC (times)
ROIC
(%)
11.26
6.15
69.23
3.76
51.33
Hindustan Unilever
FMCG
1.62
20.72
Chemicals
FMCG
1.59
18.42
Hero MotoCorp
9.04
3.33
30.14
Asian Paints
10.81
2.36
25.54
7.15
2.02
14.43
PI Industries
12.78
1.62
20.72
Rallis India
9.15
1.55
14.15
ITC
21.57
1.09
23.41
NOPAT/
sales (%)
Sales/
IC (times)
ROIC
(%)
ITC
21.57
1.09
23.41
Habitual use
FMCG
Jagran Prakashan
16.25
0.74
12.03
Colgate-Palmolive
13.65
3.76
51.33
Page Industries
13.61
1.78
24.21
Experience goods
Godrej Consumer
13.52
0.98
13.26
Dabur India
12.83
1.57
20.15
P&G
11.84
1.90
22.50
Nestle India
11.71
1.78
20.79
Hindustan Unilever
11.26
6.15
69.23
Chemicals
1.00
23.36
Construction Materials
Chemicals
0.36
13.69
Chemicals
Chemicals
FMCG
CONSUMER ADVANTAGES
Perception plays
Switching costs
When a company creates deterrence in the minds of
its consumers that comes in the way of them easily
Textile
FMCG
Diversified
FMCG
FMCG
FMCG
COVER STORY
switching from its products or services to some competitors, that company has created a switching cost.
This switching cost can either be monetary or perceived: monetary when it requires a change in accounting software, for example, and perceived when a customer is addicted to his favourite brand of soap or shampoo.
This switching cost acts as a competitive advantage for
the companies that sell such products or services. Table
7 lists out some companies that have created switching
costs in the minds of customers.
Network effects
Network effects come into play when the value of a product that a single consumer uses increases with the number of consumers using the same product.
Think Microsoft Excel. It is widely used around the
world and has become a standard in itself. The number
of people proficient in Excel means that no other number-cruncher can pose a threat to Microsoft.
Think Flipkart or Amazon. The number of users and
products available on these platforms means that any
new startup trying to sell the same products will find it
ROIC
(%)
22.27
0.61
13.55
ITC
21.57
1.09
23.41
TCS
19.64
1.63
31.97
CRISIL
17.53
1.62
28.40
IT
FMCG
IT
NOPAT/
sales (%)
Sales/
IC (times)
ROIC
(%)
Infosys
16.92
1.09
18.39
21.57
1.09
23.41
Castrol India
15.77
6.10
96.22
Colgate-Palmolive
13.65
3.76
51.33
Pidilite Industries
13.38
1.78
23.80
Nestle India
11.71
1.78
20.79
Hindustan Unilever
11.26
6.15
69.23
IT
16.95
0.87
14.83
FMCG
FMCG
0.74
12.03
Jagran Prakashan
16.25
Zee Entertainment
14.43
Page Industries
13.61
TV Today Network
10.51
1.03
10.81
Hero MotoCorp
9.04
3.33
30.14
Relaxo Footwears
7.98
2.26
18.01
Inox Leisure
7.69
7.15
Titan Company
5.70
Jubilant FoodWorks
4.04
Chemicals
0.93
13.46
FMCG
1.78
24.21
Textile
FMCG
Sales/
IC (times)
ROIC
(%)
Idea Cellular
13.16
0.48
6.38
Bharti Airtel
10.01
0.62
6.25
Interglobe Aviation
9.94
1.61
15.97
-5.21
3.08
-16.05
-15.06
8.66
-130.49
Telecom
1.53
11.74
Telecom
2.02
14.43
Aviation
3.06
17.42
Sales/
IC (times)
Ratings
FMCG
Zydus Wellness
2.98
12.07
Spicejet
Aviation
COVER STORY
EXTERNAL ADVANTAGES
Outside help
A
company is said to enjoy an external advantage when an external factor allows or bestows
upon it an advantage not available to other
players. In such situations, it is usually the government that confers this advantage by restricting or
completely prohibiting other potential players from
enjoying that advantage.
Coal is one such industry. Another is refineries,
even though there are a handful of private players
operating. Gas pipeline and distribution is another
such group of external-advantage companies.
Companies like NBCC and Bharat Electronics are a
direct beneficiary of government projects.
Table 9 highlights the top returns on invested
capital by government companies.
Parting note
This brings an end to this primer on understanding
the source of competitive advantages. When you are
looking at companies with moats, remember to ask
what the source of the moat is. Understanding the
source will bring more clarity and understanding
about what makes a company tick and how far ahead it
is from the competition. From that, you can even infer
how sustainable a moat is in the next five, ten or even
more years ahead. WI
Sales/
IC (times)
ROIC
(%)
4.07
3.73
15.16
Indraprastha Gas
10.86
1.39
15.07
NBCC (India)
3.77
3.80
14.33
4.16
3.02
12.59
PTC India
7.91
1.25
9.90
Coal India
7.01
1.35
9.44
Balmer Lawrie
3.91
2.35
9.19
Petronet LNG
3.71
2.41
8.96
Bharat Electronics
10.74
0.81
8.68
46.04
0.17
7.93
Crude Oil
Crude Oil
Power
Mining
Diversified
Gas Transmission
Warren Buffett likes to make the distinction between wide and deep moats.
Today, wide moats are better than deep
moats, or in other words, its preferable for a company to hold a range of
competitive advantages rather than
one advantage in particular. If a
company has competitive advantages across a number of its product
lines, its more likely to withstand
competitive threats longer.
Should a company with a moat hit a
roadblock in one area of its business,
other areas can easily pick up the slack,
hence explaining the reason why a bank will sensibly branch into credit cards, commercial borrowing,
financial planning services, asset management, insurance
and so on. The wider the moat the more likely excess
returns on capital can be sustained over the long term.
STRAIGHT TALK
Spinning profits
A portfolio comprising companies undergoing demergers and those
that have been spun off can decisively beat the market
ANAND TANDON
Fig 1: Both the spun-off company and the parent company do well in short and long run
Average time until spin completion
18
16
Excess returns (%)
14
12
$150
bn
10
Post-spin
excess
return: 8%
8
6
$98
bn
3%
$64
bn
2
0
0
100
200
300
400
Pre-spin
excess
return: 8%
500
Fig 2: A significant source of the long-term value creation comes from multiple expansion
Expected
Multiple
expansion
Multiple
erosion
Pre-spin
Pre-spin
Pre-spin to post-spin:
Firm:
+22%
S&P 500:
+8%
Actual (EV/EBITDA)
RemainCo
SpinCo
Post-spin
Post-spin
weighted
average
6.9x
8.0x
0.6x
0.5x
8.6x
1.3x
0.5x
8.3x
0.9x
0.5x
6.9x
6.9x
6.9x
6.9x
Pre-spin
RemainCo
SpinCo
Post-spin
weighted
average
Pre-spin
Excess
expansion
General
market
expansion
Post-spin
STRAIGHT TALK
What is a spin-off?
SPIN-OFFS
Portfolio
MidCap
Demerged company
Zuari Agro Chemicals
SmallCap
16,000
Demerged
date
Nov 27, 12
Returns
(%)*
Parent
62
Zuari Global
Returns
(%)*
3
Apr 15, 13
713
NRB Bearings
14,000
Orient Cement
Jul 12, 13
224
12,000
Oct 1, 13
-12
Future Retail#
109
10,000
Oct 24, 13
336
Century Plyboards
796
8,000
6,000
291
Nov 11,13
-24
184
Jul 2, 14
586
Marico
130
Welspun Enterprises
Jul 11, 14
66
Welspun Corp
369
4,000
Jul 31, 14
212
118
2,000
Dec 18, 1
153
Greenlam Industries
Mar 2, 15
70
0
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Greenply Ind.
44
*From the date of listing of the demerged company. # Future Retails returns as
on May 10, 2016. Marico Kayas returns as on May 25, 2015.
STRAIGHT TALK
Days Event
Price of share
108
% Chg
Nifty
6301
% Chg
18-Mar-14
76
123
13.9
6516
3.4
23-Jul-14
127
173
40.7
7795
19.6
10-Oct-14
79
185
6.9
7864
0.9
18-Dec-14
69
192
3.8
8159
3.8
22-Sep-16
644
169
-12.0
8745
7.2
Price
Nifty
123
100 12300
6516
Polaris
192
100 19200
8159
Intellect
72.2
100
Intellect shares
18-Dec-14
72.2
22-Sep-16
190
Polaris
7220
Value of portfolio
26420
Gain
22-Sep-16
115%
25%
192%
34%
35900
Days Event
27-Jan-15
26
26.4
8910
7.6
06-Aug-15
191
419
15.1
8588
-3.6
24-Dec-15
140
366
-12.6
7831
-8.8
27-Jan-16
34
348
-4.9
7438
-5.0
08-Aug-16
194
542
55.7
8711
17.1
22-Sep-16
45
569
5.0
8867
1.8
No. of shares
Value
Nifty
47.2
14-Jul-16
171
Price
364
100
36400
146
100
14600
54
20
1080
569
100
56900
8910
Demerged Portfolio
22-Sep-16
22-Sep-16
Max Ventures
22-Sep-16
Total value
72580
Growth
99.4% -0.48%
8867
INTERVIEW
R. SESHASAYEE,
INTERVIEW
INTERVIEW
INTERVIEW
concerted engagement.
INTERVIEW
BOOK REVIEW
Being Bandhan
Bandhan by Tamal Bandyopadhyay is an engrossing story of how the
microfinance player Bandhan is making a difference in the country
Inspiration behind Bandhan
Becoming an NBFC
In its first year of operations
(2002), Bandhan had two branches
and 512 borrowers and lent out
November 2016 Wealth Insight 41
BOOK REVIEW
Bandhan by numbers
2002
2006
2011
2016
155
1,553
2,022
Borrowers (000s)
0.5
150
3,250
6,717
0.35
22.38
2,500
15,600
Branches
When Bandhan
started growing,
there was pressure
on him (Ghosh) to
JHWKLJKO\TXDOLHG
CAs and MBAs at
a higher cost, but
he kept saying he
did not need tigers
to catch rats; cats
could do the job.
- Y C Nanda, NABARD
MAINSTREET
SAURABH MUKHERJEA
hold the potential of transforming access to endmarkets for producers of goods as well as services in
highlighted that the election of Modi (M), the
India. One of the main reasons responsible for the
appointment of Rajan (R) and the advent of technology
small scale of operations of Indian firms has been
(T) set off a rapid change for India Inc as (1) an
the high cost of access and creation of pan-India
unconventional PM called time on the traditional
distribution networks. The advent of e-commerce has
model of subsidy-funded consumption growth and
helped producers find an inorganic solution to this
crony-capitalism-driven capex growth in India; (2) a
problem as sellers have the option of simply tying up
gutsy RBI governor brought about multiple policy
with one or more e-commerce majors and thereby
changes to radically increase competition in the
creating access to the whole of India overnight.
financial-services sector; and (3) technology lowered
Concomitantly, manufacturers and retailers across
the barriers to entry into B2C sectors such as lending,
India are increasingly moving towards selling
consumer goods and auto.
products online, as the number of Indians with
Whilst the M+R+T resets have been disruptive in
access to the internet rises systematically. On the
the short run, the range of policy decisions triggered
other hand, the introduction of the GST will ensure
by Modi, Rajan and technology are gradually
that indirect-tax structures are common and uniform
transforming access to end-markets, capital as well
across the country. This will eliminate tax risk or
physical infrastructure from a long-term perspective.
make the entire country tax-neutral irrespective of
India has historically been a supply-constrained
the choice of the geographic location of
economy, mainly owing to the existence
business operation.
of barriers that prevent easy access to
Secondly, three powerful sets of
the three basic inputs of production,
changes
underway in India are
namely, capital, labour and technology.
The introduction of the
dramatically transforming access to
The MRT resets have been disruptive in
GST will ensure that
finance
in
India,
namely,
(1)
the short run as incumbents are forced
indirect-tax structures
improvement in access to capital for
to deal with an inorganic rise in
small and medium enterprises (through
competition and/or a breakdown in the
are common and
schemes like MUDRA and credit being
old ways of doing business (which was
uniform across the
extended by e-commerce majors); (2)
largely centred on leveraging political
country. This will
improvement in access to consumer
connectivity). Despite the short-term
finance (through schemes like Pradhan
pain triggered by the MRT resets, these
eliminate tax risk or
Mantri Jan-Dhan Yojana and lenders
resets have inadvertently triggered a
competing to provide retail credit); and
silent revolution that is likely to make the entire
(3) system-level improvements in the
transform access to end-markets, capital country tax-neutral
lending landscape in India owing to
and physical infrastructure.
irrespective of the
increased competition amongst banks
Firstly, the advent of e-commerce in
and to banks (from NBFCs, corporate
India and the potential implementation choice of the
geographic location.
bonds and other financial-technologyof a single goods-and-services tax (GST)
TIMES OF GST
MAINSTREET
U-SHAPED
GROWTH PATTERN
GENERALLY
SPEAKING
VIVEK KAUL
SPIRIT OF
CAPITALISM
GENERALLY
SPEAKING
OFFBEAT
Imperfectly rational
While following the principles of behavioural economics may not make our
decisions perfect, it can make them better over the long term
SANJEEV PANDIYA
OFFBEAT
ECONOMICS AS
RELIGION
STOCK ANALYSTS
CHOICE
Our scorecard
Recommendation date
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Asian Paints
Bosch
Castrol India
Colgate-Palmolive
CRISIL
Cummins India
Exide Industries
ITC
Larsen & Toubro
Nestle India
NMDC
Pidilite Industries
Titan Company
Lupin
Opto Circuits
Bank of Baroda
Castrol India
Power Grid Corporation
Rural Electrification
Tata Coffee
Torrent Power
Zee Entertainment Ent.
CMC#
Graphite India
Zylog Systems
Godrej Consumer Products
295
6,917
244
458
693
481
149
123
1,095
3,888
258
159
229
461
213
152
254
103
87
70
211
123
858
78
197
397
Performance
Total returns* since July 2011
26.4% 12.3%
Nifty 50 Index
1,175
22,486
473
919
2,282
860
193
246
1,488
6,874
117
721
390
1,481
12
156
473
176
135
144
170
514
2,032
76
4
1,590
Value of `10K
invested (`)
39,792
32,508
19,368
20,060
45,632
17,886
12,937
19,958
13,591
17,680
4,551
45,239
17,040
32,160
570
10,269
18,610
17,185
15,543
20,456
8,050
41,644
23,674
9,865
214
40,111
30.65
25.62
15.06
15.88
26.76
14.12
6.13
16.20
7.18
12.53
-9.68
33.93
10.83
25.63
-41.53
1.22
14.66
13.18
14.54
15.37
-2.64
32.71
25.67
3.51
-51.71
32.92
Returns for less than one year are absolute. Total returns include dividend income. Returns as on October 21, 2016. Transactional fees not taken into account.
#
CMC merged with TCS with effect from September 29, 2015. Its current price is the last traded price.
STOCK ANALYSTS
CHOICE
Recommended
price (`)
Recommendation date
Dec-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Mar-13
1,087
197
92
23
180
388
245
6,859
83
23
221
581
2,647
423
2,770
395
75
53
470
2,082
237
1,695
195
71
567
172
197
130
120
306
53
158
1,647
290
64
365
410
108
Current
price (`)
2,400
343
155
22
554
429
436
51,628
1,117
119
12
1,154
5,606
488
6,226
1,381
1,928
71
870
3,409
920
2,316
1,043
104
1,481
477
679
336
131
172
142
400
873
1,063
126
1,648
1,167
347
Value of `10K
invested (`)
22,089
17,385
16,771
9,442
33,654
11,048
17,792
75,221
149,758
52,198
550
19,842
21,180
11,555
22,476
34,969
255,696
13,239
18,512
16,376
38,863
13,669
53,458
14,486
26,106
27,737
34,535
25,831
10,925
5,607
28,963
25,416
5,300
36,631
19,749
45,105
28,447
32,172
20.38
11.81
12.11
7.55
27.84
4.21
15.24
52.23
77.32
44.14
-46.08
17.29
18.45
4.07
20.93
37.96
109.47
9.00
17.01
15.42
40.42
11.03
50.58
10.80
27.26
31.31
36.54
28.90
3.32
-11.74
30.32
28.09
-14.39
42.20
20.97
53.02
34.37
39.05
Returns for less than one year are absolute. Total returns include dividend income. Returns as on October 21, 2016. Transactional fees not taken into account.
STOCK ANALYSTS
CHOICE
Recommended
price (`)
Recommendation date
Apr-13
May-13
Aug-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
69
103
252
57
49
296
309
730
237
581
89
135
2,213
433
622
560
764
167
256
164
59
232
154
66
297
155
299
93
966
482
208
681
256
449
1,380
1,253
1,099
PORTFOLIO TOTAL
##
Current
price (`)
268
4
435
101
186
224
834
1,916
402
835
400
68
2,400
860
1,381
1,271
1,590
237
390
434
253
256
105
186
461
298
454
144
1,039
554
220
620
400
420
1,923
446
1,154
Value of `10K
invested (`)
39,008
407
17,290
17,574
38,284
7,577
27,006
26,253
16,928
14,379
44,712
5,011
10,844
19,843
22,216
22,693
20,822
14,159
15,259
26,472
42,534
11,073
6,810
28,269
15,528
19,249
15,215
15,450
10,752
12,010
10,568
9,103
15,590
9,355
13,936
3,558
10,496
47.05
-62.83
17.85
21.24
47.74
-5.50
37.66
35.31
23.10
15.68
68.60
-20.74
5.53
33.01
40.65
38.92
33.49
16.36
19.35
50.96
83.77
7.32
-12.89
59.39
25.43
36.33
23.58
24.34
5.70
7.27
4.09
-5.36
31.42
-4.02
24.71
-49.43
4.22
24,93,578
26.36
Stopped trading since Jun 13. Returns for less than one year are absolute. Total returns include dividend income. Returns as on Oct 21, 2016.
Transactional fees not taken into account.
COMPANIES
WITH MOAT
Industry
ROE (%)
Price to book
AIA Engineering
Engineering
19.4
5.10
28.3
18.7
1,293
1,355-700
Batteries
25.8
7.79
34.9
18.6
1,018
1,077-773
Asian Paints
Paints
34.4
18.46
62.8
42.5
1,183
1,230-785
Bajaj Auto
Automobiles
29.5
6.01
22.0
19.1
2,754
3,122-2,173
Bajaj Corp
FMCG
40.5
9.89
27.6
23.4
400
457-356
Bajaj Finance
NBFC
21.1
7.45
40.7
12.4
1,079
1,180-498
Bayer CropScience
Agrochemicals
15.9
8.36
48.5
22.8
4,461
4,627-3,115
Bharat Electronics
Engineering
15.9
3.45
22.6
15.8
1,262
1,417-1,009
Courier Services
53.5
26.05
69.3
63.9
5,181
7,900-4,911
Bosch
Engineering
15.0
8.03
54.5
35.0
22,152
25,650-15,753
Britannia Industries
Food
53.5
19.86
47.4
34.2
3,300
3,575-2,507
Castrol India
Lubricants
114.7
33.34
34.5
33.4
463
495-360
Colgate-Palmolive
FMCG
64.4
21.67
42.2
38.0
913
1,033-788
Logistics
10.1
3.12
34.0
18.5
1,324
1,544-1,051
CRISIL
Ratings
33.5
15.60
52.0
35.7
2,300
2,490-1,750
Cummins India
Diesel Engines
22.2
7.04
32.7
25.0
851
1,105-747
Dabur India
FMCG
34.1
10.97
37.3
35.8
272
320-231
Divis Laboratories
Pharma
28.6
6.97
27.8
24.4
1,222
1,380-918
Emami
Pharma
27.2
18.07
80.4
32.8
1,162
1,248-901
Essel Propack
Plastic Products
21.0
3.65
20.2
12.6
233
249-133
Price
52-week high-low
COMPANIES
WITH MOAT
Company name
Industry
ROE (%)
Price to book
Price
52-week high-low
Exide Industries
Batteries
17.7
3.42
23.7
22.9
185
200-116
Bearings
16.5
5.06
35.8
25.6
4,188
4,438-3,707
Foods
30.1
10.00
37.6
37.1
6,196
6,800-5,367
HCL Technologies
Software
22.5
4.00
14.8
16.2
809
890-707
HDFC Bank
Banking
18.6
4.13
24.5
24.1
1,238
1,318-929
Hero MotoCorp
Automobiles
42.1
7.70
20.8
19.6
3,404
3,740-2,375
Hindustan Unilever
FMCG
103.5
38.17
43.8
36.6
849
954-765
HDFC
Housing Finance
16.6
3.89
19.1
19.9
1,302
1,463-1,012
Indraprastha Gas
Gas Distribution
17.9
4.53
25.1
13.3
829
882-454
Infosys
Software
25.2
3.62
16.6
18.7
1,022
1,278-996
ITC
Cigarettes
30.7
8.16
29.2
30.5
240
266-179
Marico
FMCG
37.7
15.12
47.5
36.6
276
307-190
Automobiles
17.8
5.94
34.8
25.1
5,600
5,770-3,202
MRF
Tyres
41.5
2.90
12.3
9.1
49,842
54,601-30,464
Navneet Education
Publishing
22.1
3.23
16.8
15.5
101
109-76
NBCC
Construction
21.9
9.66
47.7
40.4
250
299-162
Nestle India
Foods
19.9
20.61
81.9
46.3
6,772
7,390-4,990
Software
32.9
6.81
22.9
23.9
3,190
4,092-3,100
Pidilite Industries
Chemicals
30.0
12.07
46.0
34.4
718
770-521
Power Distribution
14.8
2.06
14.2
14.2
176
188-126
FMCG
31.0
15.00
53.6
46.8
6,983
7,280-5,171
Siemens
Electric Equipment
24.7
7.77
67.3
55.1
1,210
1,395-969
SKF India
Bearings
17.2
4.55
33.7
23.3
1,405
1,490-1,040
Sun Pharmaceutical
Pharma
20.5
5.25
28.2
33.8
734
914-706
Sundaram Finance
NBFC
14.7
4.39
31.8
16.8
1,342
1,599-1,106
Software
42.0
6.10
18.3
22.8
2,363
2,740-2,119
Titan Company
Jewellery
21.0
9.40
50.2
37.6
386
445-303
Zee Entertainment
Media
26.6
10.90
48.3
31.4
503
589-350
STOCK
IDEAS
Glossary
Current ratio It is the ratio of a companys current assets (the most liquid assets,
such as cash and cash equivalents, account receivables, etc.) to its current liabilities (liabilities that are closest to maturity and hence need to be paid back first).
By comparing the latter with the former, an investor can get an idea of how liquid
a companys assets are.
However, in certain circumstances, a high current ratio could be due to the fact
that the company is facing problems in recovering its receivables. Alternatively, it
could be facing a problem in selling its inventory, which is why the current ratio may
be unusually high.
Universe companies (903) We have revised our universe. We checked if the
companies traded on all the days for the last two quarters. We considered the
companies with a market capitalisation of more than `400 crore.
Price to book value (P/BV) Price to book value is the ratio of the price of a
stock to the book value per share of the company. It shows how much premium
investors are willing to pay for the underlying net assets of the company.
Price to earnings (P/E) The price-to-earnings ratio, or the P/E ratio, is simply
the ratio of the price of a stock to its earnings per share. It shows in multiples how
much investors are willing to pay for the earnings. The thumb rule of valuing a stock
is that a high-growth stock will have a high P/E ratio, while a value stock will have
a relatively lower P/E ratio.
Earnings per share (EPS) Earnings per share, or EPS, is calculated by dividing
the companys net profit with the total number of outstanding shares.
Earnings yield EBIT divided by enterprise value. Enterprise value is market cap
added to total debt and less cash and equivalents.
Net sales This is simply the income that a company derives by
selling the goods and services that it produces.
The downside of taking sales as an indicator of growth is that it may not be
matched by a similarly scintillating bottom-line performance. A company may be
earning revenue at a high rate. But if it is doing so by incurring a very high cost,
the bottom line may not grow in proportion to the growth in the top line.
Interest coverage ratio (ICR) This indicator is generally used to gauge whether a
company has the ability to service its debt. The interest coverage ratio is calculated as
the ratio of operating profit to interest outgo. A company with ICR of more than two
implies that it can service more than twice its current interest charges.
Debt-equity ratio (DE Ratio) The debt-equity ratio is calculated as the ratio of
total outstanding borrowings of the company to its total equity capital. The DE ratio
essentially tells which companies use excessive leverage to achieve growth.
Conventionally, the DE ratio of less than two is considered safe.
Return on equity (RoE) This is measured by taking profit after tax as a percentage of net worth of the company. It indicates how efficiently the company has been
able to utilise investors money.
Net worth Net worth is the net value of the company that shareholders can claim
in case of a bankruptcy. It is composed of broadly the equity capital and the
reserves held by a company. One risk in using this indicator is that companies
could potentially inflate this figure by issuing more equity at regular intervals.
Stock return (stk return) Stock return is calculated by taking the percentage
change in the price of the stock adjusted for bonus or split.
Dividend yield (yield) This is defined as the percentage of the dividend paid per
share to the current market price of the stock. Since the denominator in this ratio
is the market price, a stocks dividend yield changes every day.
Price-earnings to growth (PEG) This ratio demonstrates how high a price we are
paying for the growth that we are purchasing. It is the ratio of price to eanings to EPS
growth of the stock. In all our analyses, we have taken five-year historic EPS growth.
Dividend payout ratio (DPR) This is the total dividend paid to the shareholders
as a percentage of net profit
Operating profit margin (OPM) OPM is operating profit as a percentage of net
sales.
Net profit margin (NPM) NPM is the net profit as a percentage of total
income (sales plus other income)
Stock style It indicates the style of
Growth Value
Large
Mid
Small
STOCK
IDEAS
REASONS TO INVEST
Safety
Soundness
Good performance
Reasonable valuations
THE FILTERS
Company
Ceat
Tyres & Allied
Century Enka
Textile
Cosmo Films
Plastic Products
Firstsource Solutions
BPO/ITeS
Kabra Extrusiontechnik
Engineering
KPIT Technologies
IT - Software
Srikalahasthi Pipes
Castings/Forgings
Stock
style
Altman
Z-Score
Piotroski
F-Score
Modified
C-Score
Earnings
yield (%)
P/E
PEG
Market
cap (` cr)
Share
price (`)
5,204 1,287
52-week
high/low (`)
4.24
11.97
12.12
0.17
1422-731
3.73
17.55
9.27
-6.77
634
290
302-145
3.05
12.87
7.88
0.32
762
392
427-213
4.54
10.96
9.47
0.50
2,670
40
54-29
5.81
14.32
8.69
0.51
425
133
143-71
8.51
16.33
8.70
0.36
2,542
129
197-108
3.02
13.03
6.83
0.77
763
26
51-23
8.95
5.25
34.95
0.55
537
645
704-416
3.62
17.57
7.41
0.25
1,244
313
356-184
STOCK
IDEAS
Company
Stock
style
Torrent Pharmaceuticals
Pharmaceuticals & Drugs
Altman
Z-Score
Piotroski
F-Score
24.98
5.31
Modified
C-Score
Earnings
yield (%)
P/E
PEG
5.87
26.64
0.44
7.77
16.24
0.39
Market
cap (` cr)
737
Share
price (`)
52-week
high/low (`)
184
200-148
27,612 1,632
1768-1190
THE FILTERS
REASONS TO INVEST
Liquidity
Large companies in
respective businesses
Strong balance sheets
Liked by institutions
Stock
style
Ajanta Pharma
Pharmaceuticals & Drugs
P/E
PEG
Debt-equity
ratio
Int coverage
ratio
RoE avg
5Y (%)
EPS growth
5Y (%)
Mkt cap
(` cr)
Share
price (`)
52-week
high/low (`)
16.97 0.79
1.73
3.87
24.65
21.57
51,960
251
325-170
38.11 0.72
0.08 112.94
36.15
52.83
16,659 1,893
2127-1103
STOCK
IDEAS
Company
Apollo Tyres
Tyres & Allied
Atul
Chemicals
Divis Laboratories
Pharmaceuticals & Drugs
Eicher Motors
Automobile Two & Three Wheelers
KRBL
Consumer Food
Mindtree
IT - Software
Relaxo Footwears
Household & Personal Products
Syngene International
Miscellaneous
Torrent Pharmaceuticals
Pharmaceuticals & Drugs
Vakrangee
BPO/ITeS
Stock
style
RoE avg
5Y (%)
EPS growth
5Y (%)
0.04 1490.06
27.92
26.90
17,395 1,018
9.52 0.47
0.24
16.71
20.13
20.08
10,639
24.15 0.91
0.24
15.54
23.18
27.81 1.33
0.01 421.37
54.19 1.42
P/E
PEG
34.93 1.30
Debt-equity
ratio
Int coverage
ratio
Mkt cap
(` cr)
Share
price (`)
52-week
high/low (`)
1077-773
209
235-128
26.65
6,968 2,349
2466-1275
27.05
20.87
32,438 1,222
1380-918
0.02 233.13
33.24
38.26
19.29 0.81
0.71
7.78
20.85
23.78
6,508
247
306-170
14.01 0.39
0.02 2592.33
26.18
36.17
8,244
491
804-464
34.51 1.29
1.50
9.65
32.48
26.72
45,229
322
359-206
44.37 1.34
0.49
8.76
26.36
33.16
5,349
446
547-360
28.17 1.15
0.27
15.19
24.02
24.59 176,668
734
914-706
42.92 0.93
0.86
31.74
22.48
46.06
509
524-344
18.33 0.87
0.00 1598.37
41.62
2740-2119
16.24 0.39
0.70
13.72
36.83
41.48
27,612 1,632
1768-1190
15.57 0.47
0.43
2.41
30.26
33.08
11,743
627
660-352
28.90 0.59
0.21
11.84
26.39
49.18
12,465
236
241-105
10,189
STOCK
IDEAS
REASONS TO INVEST
Cushion against volatility
Higher total return
Generate regular
tax-free income
THE FILTERS
Stocks with sustained per share dividend and amount over the past five years
Dividend payout ratio of less than 40 per cent
Stocks with a current dividend yield of more than 3 per cent
Stock
style
PTC India
Power Generation/Distribution
SJVN
Power Generation/Distribution
P/E
PEG
Dividend
per share (`)
Mkt cap
(` cr)
Share
price (`)
7.05
2.46
2.70
3.07
21.67
25.40
1,332
88
99-73
5.20
0.28 13.90
5.65
29.67
90.00 32,473
123
129-70
8.97
0.98
2.50
3.41
17.20
19.60
2,171
73
88-56
4.68
0.29 17.10
6.48
132
135-76
8.53
1.11
1.10
3.80
32.31
10.06 11,976
29
34-26
5.85
0.37 13.50
3.67
20.03
95.00
5,551
368
420-275
6.54
0.42
3.37
22.69
43.00
2,798
148
162-85
5.00
52-week
high/low (`)
STOCK
IDEAS
REASONS TO INVEST
Really cheap
Relatively undervalued
Companies with assets
THE FILTERS
Stock
style
P/B
P/E
PEG
Dividend
yield (%)
Debt-equity
ratio (%)
RoE (%)
Mkt cap
(` cr)
Share
price (`)
52-week
high/low (`)
0.77
5.57
0.41
13.67
0.08
16.19
409
22
28-21
0.65
5.85
0.37
3.67
0.70
13.23
5,551
368
420-275
0.73
6.54
0.42
3.37
0.29
11.74
2,798
148
162-85
STOCK
IDEAS
rowth at a reasonable
price
(GARP)
is
a
combination
of
both
growth
and
value
investing. This strategy was
popularised by Peter Lynch. While
a growth strategy is more focused
on a companys earnings growth
and
value
investing
seeks
companies having their prices
below their intrinsic value, growth
at a reasonable price, as a strategy,
hunts for stocks that have both
growth potential and are also
trading at a reasonable price. A
typical GARP investor seeks to
invest in companies that have had a
positive performance over the past
few years and which also have
positive projections.
A solid benchmark to spot a
GARP stock is the PEG ratio or the
REASONS TO INVEST
All-weather style
Companies with strong
fundamentals
Greater stability vis-a-vis
value or growth
THE FILTERS
At least 20 per cent in the trailing 12
months YoY
At least 20 per cent in latest quarter
YoY
Stock
style
Balaji Amines
Chemicals
DCM Shriram
Diversified
Deepak Nitrite
Chemicals
Kalyani Steels
Steel & Iron Products
KEI Industries
Cable
KNR Construction
Engineering - Construction
KPIT Technologies
IT - Software
P/E
Industry
P/E
PEG
14.09 28.94
0.64
105.5
10.29 28.45
0.14
11.66 28.94
0.36
356.7
11.89 30.82
0.57
10.70 11.15
Mrkt cap
(` cr)
Share
price (`)
52-week
high/low (`)
87.6
22.1
1,054
325
329-115
34.3 116.4
75.1
3,516
217
245-107
88.3
32.8
1,395
120
134-56
51.2
31.8
20.8
438
298
394-249
0.41
62.0
35.7
26.3
1,407
322
413-117
14.14 21.11
0.38
44.7
59.0
37.5
953
123
129-86
12.47 22.10
0.51
86.7 154.1
24.5
2,198
782
820-408
8.70 17.95
0.39
30.3
22.5
2,542
129
197-108
28.1
STOCK
IDEAS
Company
Stock
style
Meghmani Organics
Pesticides & Agrochemicals
Nocil
Chemicals
Srikalahasthi Pipes
Castings/Forgings
Sunteck Realty
Construction - Real Estate
Trident
Textile - Spinning
Vikas EcoTech
Chemicals
P/E
Industry
P/E
PEG
14.30 31.63
0.70
273.8 110.3
14.28 28.94
0.68
38.6
3.10 17.95
Mrkt cap
(` cr)
Share
price (`)
52-week
high/low (`)
20.5
1,237
49
52-18
32.8
20.9
1,202
74
80-38
0.08
90.9 111.1
38.1
657
371
431-233
7.41 13.42
0.25
24.4
29.3
1,244
313
356-184
7.92 24.78
0.07
1,746
277
281-173
9.37 13.36
0.43
33.0
41.0
21.7
2,548
368
392-186
11.17 11.15
0.25
35.8
42.1
44.0
1,019
388
397-176
12.25 11.03
0.27
26.0
66.3
45.2
3,012
59
62-37
12.41 28.94
0.21
962.3 838.9
60.4
419
17
24-11
61.6
Data as on October 16, 2016. EPS growth rates are annualised. Indicates new entrants.
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