Professional Documents
Culture Documents
1- Summary of forecasts*
2014 2015 2016f 2017f
2.2
4.1
3.5
4.0
10.1
11.5
10.5
10.3
90.0
89.0
85.0
84.0
-1.0
-3.8
-5.1
-5.6
17.0
17.0
18.0
19.0
15
20
17
19
2.6
3.1
2.6
2.7
7.2
7.6
8.90
9.3
110
It is still too early to say whether or not the devaluation has achieved
its goals. Initial indications are mixed. Having risen slightly, the black
market exchange rate continued its depreciation, reaching an
estimated level of 10/USD. At the end of March, the central banks
forex reserves were stable at USD 16.5 bn. Moreover, the banks
governor announced that non-resident portfolio investment (equities
and fixed income securities) increased by USD 0.5 bn following the
devaluation. The Cairo stock market gave the devaluation a warm
welcome, gaining 14% over 2 weeks, but leading indicators of
economic activity remain in negative territory. The PMI index
dropped to 44.5 in March (from 48.1 in February), its lowest since
August 2013.
70
economic-research.bnpparibas.com
100
90
80
2013
Sources: JP Morgan, BIS
2014
2015
2016
Egypt
21
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
06/2010
06/2012
Sources: CBE, BNP Paribas
06/2014
0
06/2016
The government has high hopes for the return of foreign investors to
the local sovereign debt market. In 2010, the stock of treasury notes
held by non-residents was USD 6.7 bn. Since 2011 it has been
economic-research.bnpparibas.com
Egypt
22