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Philadelphia

Chart of the week: January 4, 2016

Market West sees strongest asking rent growth


in 2015 as CBD demand helps drive rate
$45.00
$40.00

12-month
change:
+3.9%

12-month
change:
+0.4%
12-month
change:
+5.9%

Average asking rent

$35.00

$30.00

12-month
change:
+4.1%

$25.00
$20.00

$38.18 $39.66

12-month
change:
+3.7%

$37.99 $38.15

$15.00

$27.95

$29.61

$27.07 $28.19

$24.11 $25.00

$10.00

$5.00
$0.00
Navy Yard

University City
Average asking rent Q1 2015

Market West

CBD Total

Market East

Average asking rent Q4 2015

All CBD submarkets saw asking rental rate growth throughout 2015. University City stayed flat with very
few spaces available and the under-construction FMC Tower not factoring into 2015 analysis. Major
2015 lease announcements across Market West A and Trophy buildings helped drive asking rates up as
overall availability constricts. New inventory and greater tenant demand may yield record rates in 2016.
Source: JLL Research

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: January 11, 2016

Strong 2015 leasing activity lowers availability


across CBD markets, with one exception
Market East

18.0%
16.0%

Market West

Navy Yard

University City

15.7%

14.0%

13.9%

Availability rate

12.7%
12.0%

11.7%

10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%

3.9%
3.0%
3.2%

2.3%

0.0%
2015 Q1

2015 Q2

2015 Q3

2015 Q4

Availability conditions continued to tighten across the CBD in 2015 as expansions and net new demand
took down significant square footage from the market, particularly as a result of several large
transactions in Market West. Dows announced departure from 100 S Independence Mall West
returned one of Market Street Easts largest blocks to the market, increasing availability here despite
otherwise tightening conditions.
Source: JLL Research. *Buildings under construction not included

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: January 18, 2016

CBD pipeline: 2016s most anticipated deliveries


13

5
15

10
8

4
1
7

2
9

Project size (square feet)


500,000+ s.f.
250,000 - 499,000 s.f.
100,000 - 249,000 s.f.

11&12

50,000 - 99,000 s.f.

14
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)

FMC Tower
East Market Phase I
Rodin Square/Dalian
1919 Market
Museum Towers II

6)
7)
8)
9)
10)

One Water Street


The Griffin
College House at Hill Field
1112-28 Chestnut
The Study at Univ. City

11)
12)
13)
14)
15)

1221 S. Broad
1200 Intrepid
Sugar House expansion
Pennovation Phase I
LDS Temple

With so many cranes dotting the Philadelphia skyline, it can be difficult to keep track of construction.
While some of the highest-profile projects (Comcasts new tower, the Gallerys reinvention, the Divine
Lorraine) wont welcome new users until 2017 or beyond, the above map shows developments of
50,000 square feet and up that are certain (or at least very likely) to open in 2016. The coming year
promises 4.3 million square feet of a mix of office, residential, retail, hotel, and institutional uses.
Source: JLL Research

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: January 25, 2016

Core Suburban submarkets accounted for 83


percent of positive absorption in 2015
Core submarkets

2015 Absorption

82.5%
of 2015s positive
absorption
occurred in

51.6% of
3

the markets
square footage

4
1

1. Malvern / Exton

413,659 s.f.

2. King of Prussia /
Wayne

253,746 s.f.

3. Plymouth Meeting /
Blue Bell

237,351 s.f.

4. Conshohocken

125,883 s.f.

5. Radnor

16,352 s.f.

Five core submarkets


total absorption

1,046,991 s.f.

Entire suburban market


total absorption

1,268,416 s.f.

Suburban Philadelphia ended 2015 with a five-year high in positive absorption. The five Core Suburban
Philadelphia submarkets (Conshohocken, King of Prussia / Wayne, Malvern / Exton, Plymouth Meeting /
Blue Bell and Radnor) accounted for 1,046,991 out of 1,268,416 square feet of positive absorption, or
82.5 percent of absorption for the 14 Suburban Philadelphia submarkets. With the exception of King of
Prussia / Wayne, each of these Core submarkets is sub-eight percent vacant for Class A space.
Source: JLL Research

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: February 1, 2016

Industrial construction continues to pick up as


vacancy rates fall
20,000,000

19,343,415

11.1%
10.5%

12.0%

10.3%
10.0%

16,000,000

8.0%

12,435,552
6.8%

12,000,000

9,638,814

6.0%

6.4%

8,000,000

5,431,000

Vacancy rate

Under construction (s.f.)

7.8%

4.0%

5,404,459

4,000,000

2.0%

2010

0.0%
2011

2012

Under construction year-end

2013

2014

2015

Vacancy

Landlord-favorable conditions in the Philadelphia industrial market existed throughout 2015 and are
expected to continue into 2016. Average asking rents have increased and vacancy continues to
decrease, all while tenant demand remains strong. As a result, developers continue speculative
projects, which now account for 75 percent of all active construction. While a few vacant deliveries have
given the market some pause, limited quality options in desirable locations will support leasing
momentum over the next year as economic growth is expected to continue.
Source: JLL Research

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: February 8, 2016

In the war for talent, Philadelphia is at the


front of the pack
+400 bps

2014

+160 bps
+130 bps

28.9%
29.6%
29.9%

+100 bps

23.7%
24.3%
25.0%

30.7%
31.5%
32.3%

+200 bps
28.3%
29.7%
30.4%

New York,
NY

+240 bps

31.2%
32.4%
33.6%

Chicago, IL

+240 bps

24.9%
26.7%
27.4%

33.4%
34.7%
35.9%

25.0%

+250 bps

22.6%
24.3%
26.0%

30.0%

+340 bps

+260 bps
33.3%
34.5%
36.0%

40.0%
35.0%

2012

+320 bps
36.6%
38.2%
39.7%

45.0%

2010

40.3%
42.0%
44.4%

Population holding a bachelor's degree or more

50.0%

20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
San Diego, Philadelphia, San Jose,
CA
PA
CA

Phoenix, AZ Top 10 City Houston, TX Los Angeles, San Antonio, Dallas, TX


Average
CA
TX

With February 2016 unemployment at 4.9 percent and unemployment for individuals holding a
Bachelors degree or more hovering at 2.5 percent, slack in the U.S. labor market is at an all time low.
Employers looking to attract and retain the best and brightest are increasingly differentiating themselves
from their competition based on their real estate, including location and amenities. The City of
Philadelphia is well-positioned to capitalize on the war for talent: between 2010 and 2014, Philadelphia
added 48,155 people with Bachelors degrees, a rate second only to San Diego among the 10 largest
cities in the country.
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau. *Note: 2014 most recent ACS data available

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: February 15, 2016

50% of Lehigh Valley industrial demand 3PLs,


manufacturing, other submarkets more diverse
100%

17 TIMs

24 TIMs

30 TIMs
1

90%

7 TIMs

17 TIMs
1

2
8

80%

Tenant requirements

70%
3

60%
3

30%

10%
0%

4
1
3
1
Lehigh Valley

20%

50%
40%

1
Central Pennsylvania

Retail
Auto Parts
Durable Consumer Goods

I-81 Corridor

Food & Beverage


Manufacturing
3PL

Southern New Jersey

Philadelphia

E-Commerce
Biotech/Pharma
Industrial Supply

Strong industrial tenant demand in the Greater Philadelphia market is contributing to low vacancy, high
speculative construction, and increasing rental rates. While manufacturing currently makes up a full 20
percent of all tenant requirements, a look at tenant demand by submarket reveals a more nuanced
picture. In the Lehigh Valley, for example, third-party logistics providers make up 27 percent of the
demand base, whereas tenants in retail and food & beverage make up nearly 50 percent of the demand
base in the I-81 Corridor. Further, food & beverage requirements represent the largest transactions in the
market, averaging 618,750 square feet per tenant.
Source: JLL Research

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: February 22, 2016

Two development projects to bring one million


square feet of new office to Allentown

Five City Center

The Waterfront

In the Lehigh Valley, Allentown has two office development projects in the construction pipeline that can
deliver over one million square feet of much needed Class A office space in a market that lacks large
blocks of contiguous space. Five City Center, following the success of Two and Three City Center, offers
400,000 square feet of Class A office in downtown Allentown and will begin construction in August. To
the east but still in Allentowns neighborhood innovation zone (NIZ), The Waterfront offers six office
buildings totaling 610,000 square feet as part of a 26-acre mixed-use office, residential and retail
development. This project should break ground in 2016 with the pending signing of a large corporate
occupier.
Source: JLL Research

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: February 29, 2016

Shared office market on track to grow to


600,000 square feet in and around the CBD
Local operator

National operator

350,000

Total square feet

300,000

Other
26%

290,877

250,000
200,000

146,527

Joynture
4%

185,000

150,000

134,000
127,000

Regus
12%

100,000
144,350

Industrious
8%

MakeOffices
22%

Benjamin's
Desk
15%
WeWork
14%

134,000

50,000
58,000
0
Open

Under
Construction

Proposed

One year ago, our Chart of the Week showed 228,000 square feet of coworking space operational or in
development throughout the CBD. The market has surged in the past year surpassing all expectations,
with the expansion and arrival of more out-of-market operators. Joynture will occupy the Pearl Arts
building on South Street, while WeWork executed a lease for 40,000 square feet at 1601 Market. This
sets WeWork up direct competition with MakeOffices multi-floor space at nearby Seven Penn Center
and a larger battle for overall market dominance (a third potential MakeOffice location east of Broad
would put it squarely in the lead). The ability of local operators to compete, the emergence of
specialized facilities such as Plexus (med-tech coworking), and tenant mix will all be worth watching in
the months ahead.
Source: JLL Research

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: March 7, 2016

Leasing velocity differing greatly across the


Philadelphia regions industrial submarkets
Southern New Jersey
2,836,257 total s.f.

The Lehigh Valley


7,238,276 total s.f.

Central Pennsylvania
8,142,118 total s.f.

105,432
2,731,874

1,263,256
1,573,001

Vacant

Leased

4,506,402

Vacant

Leased

8,036,686

Vacant

Leased

Developers have broken ground on more than 18 million square feet of speculative industrial space
since 2014 across three of Philadelphias most dynamic industrial submarkets. Of these, Central
Pennsylvania has seen the least amount of lease-up, with only 1.3 percent of recent speculative space
signing tenants. The Lehigh Valley and Southern New Jersey have fared significantly better, with 38 and
45 percent of the speculative product in those markets already leased. While pending deals with large
users will move the dial in Central PA, demand for new construction is currently stronger in the Lehigh
Valley. This area has been gaining as a logistics hub thanks to its strategic distribution location along
major highways and close proximity to both New York and Philadelphia.
Source: JLL Research

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: March 14, 2016

Philadelphia regional economy grows 4%


since last recession, lagging most peers
2008

2014

U.S. metropolitan area


growth 2008-2014:

+11.8%

$1,200,000
$1,000,000

7.3%

$1,423,173

$1,400,000
$1,273,014

+3.3%

$273,386

+1.4%

$269,553

$298,146

+4.4%

$285,666

$353,710

+10.3%
$320,598

$358,469

+4.0%
$344,795

$435,583

+5.1%
$414,619

$454,944

+22.8%
$370,535

$200,000

$460,154

$400,000

+26.1%

$365,048

$540,113

$600,000

$557,745

$800,000

$797,697

+0.3%
$795,244

Real gross metropolitan product


($M, 2009 constant dollars)

$1,600,000

$0
New York
MSA

Los Angeles Chicago MSA Dallas MSA Houston MSA Washington, Philadelphia Boston MSA Atlanta MSA Miami MSA
MSA
DC MSA
MSA

Gross metropolitan product (GMP), or the value of all goods and services produced within a metropolitan
statistical area (MSA), is one way to measure the productivity of a regional economy. Since the last
recession began, Philadelphias GMP has grown 4.0 percent, from $344.8 to $358.5 billion on a real
basis. Despite this growth, however, productivity in U.S. metropolitan areas averaged 7.3 percent, and
most peer regions in the 10 largest markets averaged significantly higher productivity growth. This
fundamental economic indicator helps to explain why the regions real estate market has expanded but
not at the same break-neck pace as places like New York, Dallas, Houston, and Boston.
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: March 21, 2016

Direct transit concourse access is a coveted


amenity in Center City, but does it affect rate?
Market West

5,051,974 s.f.

2,542,291 s.f.

18,790,491 s.f.

1,296,201 s.f.
Class B

Market East

3,343,630 s.f.

Class A

2,121,874 s.f.

Trophy

No Concourse Access

7,108,062 s.f.

Percent of submarket inventory


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Of the 89 buildings JLL tracks in Market East and Market West, 22 of them (or 35% of the leasable
inventory) have a physical connection to the citys vast underground concourse system that allows
commuters to reach subways, trolleys, and commuter trains without braving the elements. While the
connection of 14.3 million square feet of office space to the transit network is impressive, convenient,
and frequently marketed as a differentiator to tenants, there is no obvious relationship between
concourse access and rents except among Class B buildings. B buildings with concourse access have
rental rates 8 percent above those without, while average rates in A and Trophy buildings are essentially
the same with and without concourse access.
Source: JLL Research

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: March 28, 2016

Lehigh Valley leads industrial market in deal


size, but S. New Jersey lands more deals
250,000

45
229,124

38

41
40

36
206,065

34

35

167,585
30
150,000
25
123,209
114,742
20
100,000

Number of Deals

Average lease size (s.f.)


(Deals 40K s.f.+)

200,000

15

44,225

50,000

10

6
5
2
0

0
The Lehigh Valley

Central Pennsylvania Southern New Jersey

I-81 Corridor

Philadelphia &
Suburbs

Delaware

While the Philadelphia industrial market is experiencing strong leasing velocity across all major
submarkets, lease sizes and deal flow vary significantly from submarket to submarket. The Lehigh Valley
and Central Pennsylvania both averaged over 200,000 square feet per deal during 2015 and 2016 YTD,
while Southern New Jersey leads the region with 41 deals signed. Philadelphia and its suburbs are also
very active yet significantly smaller, completing 34 leases over this timeframe but averaging only 114,742
square feet. These variables help to explain some of speculative construction and why projects are
beginning to take additional time to lease up.
Source: JLL Research

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: April 4, 2016

Regional population +1.6% over 5 years, but


some counties outpace Chicago, NYC metros
4.0%
3.3%

3.2%
2.6%

2.3%

2.0%

MSA growth rate = 1.6%


1.0%

0.9%
0.3%

0.2%
Burlington County, NJ

Bucks County, PA

Delaware County, PA

Cecil County, MD

Gloucester County, NJ

-3.0%

Montgomery County, PA

-2.0%

Philadelphia County, PA

-1.0%

Chester County, PA

0.0%

-0.5%
Salem County, NJ

1.0%

Camden County, NJ

1.2%

New Castle County, DE

2010-2015 Population change

3.0%

-2.8%

-4.0%

While incredibly strong population growth in the Washington, DC metropolitan statistical area (MSA) may
have overtaken Philadelphias position as the seventh largest MSA, a closer look at county level data
from the Census Bureaus population estimates program reveals that slower growth can mainly be
attributed to Southern New Jersey. New Castle County, DE, Chester County, PA, the City of Philadelphia,
and Montgomery County, PA all grew 70 to 170 basis points faster than the regional average. Growth in
these counties compares favorably to the New York MSA, which grew three percent 2010-2015, and the
Chicago MSA, which grew 0.8 percent over the same time period.
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: April 11, 2016

34% of bikeshare trips happen at rush hour,


with most popular stations across the CBD
University City

Market West

Market East

CHOP and HUP


medical
campuses

Top station for BOTH AM arrival and PM departure


Top station for AM arrival only
Top station for PM departure only

Philadelphias Indego bikeshare system celebrates its first birthday on April 23. Of the 429,710 trips
logged in calendar year 2015, more than a third occurred on weekdays between 7AM-10AM and 4PM7PM, implying strong usage by commuters to CBD jobs. While the purpose of each trip is not knowable,
it is telling that the top 15 AM destinations are nearly identical to the top 15 PM origin stations, and all of
them are within blocks of the largest office and medical employment nodes in Market East, Market West,
and University City. In 2015, more than 34,000 bike trips ended at these stations during morning rush,
and more than 40,000 bike trips started at these stations during evening rush. Happy Birthday, Indego!
Source: JLL Research, Indego

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: April 18, 2016

Six large blocks of new industrial construction


still vacant as of first quarter

Address: 1605 Bartlett Drive, York, PA


Space available: 1,209,000 s.f.
Owner: Hillwood

Address: 1610 Van Buren Road,


Northampton, PA
Space available: 1,104,000 s.f.
Owner: Duke Realty

Address: 221 Allen Road, Carlisle, PA


Space available: 1,029,600 s.f.
Owner: Prologis

Address: 1 Ames Drive, Carlisle, PA


Space available: 595,000 s.f.
Owner: Dermody Properties

Address: 3051 Commerce Center


Boulevard, Bethlehem, PA
Space available: 541,500 s.f.
Owner: Majestic Realty

Address: 545 Old Forge Road,


Lebanon, PA
Space available: 500,000 s.f.
Owner: Clarion Partners

Large blocks of industrial space are still in high demand: there are currently 19 tenant requirements
seeking a minimum of 500,000 square feet. In response to this expanding demand, mainly from ecommerce and 3PL occupiers, nearly 14 million square feet of warehouse and distribution space is
currently under construction. However, there are also currently six new buildings over 500,000 square
feet still fully vacant. With only three buildings completed before 2015 that have vacancies of 500,000
square feet or larger, the six highlighted buildings above hope to lease up before years end.
Source: JLL Research

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: April 25, 2016

More than half of PA suburban submarkets


post Class A rent growth Q4 2015 to Q1 2016
$39.41 +1.5%
$38.81

Radnor
Conshohocken
Bala Cynwyd
Plymouth Meeting/Blue Bell

King of Prussia/Wayne
Philadelphia Suburbs
Fort Washington
Malvern/Exton
Lower Bucks County
Delaware County
Valley Forge/Norristown
Horsham/Willow Grove
Central Bucks County
West Montgomery County

$35.11
+1.3%
$34.66
$33.03 +0%
$33.03
$31.25
$31.24 +0%
$29.57 +1.8%
$29.06
$28.45 +2.4%
$27.78
$27.06
$26.81 +1.0%
$26.76 +1.9%
$26.25
$26.50
-4.7%
$27.80
$26.39
-5.0%
$25.15
$25.72
$25.42 +1.2%
$25.24

$21.26
$22.47 +0%
$22.51
$20.05
$20.57 -2.5%

+18.7%

2016 Q1
2015 Q4

1.15 million square feet of positive Class A absorption in the Pennsylvania suburbs since the beginning of
2015 has driven market vacancy rates to historic lows. At 11.3 percent total vacancy at the close of Q1
2016, with half of all submarkets sub-nine percent, already limited tenant options for high quality space
continue to dwindle, enabling landlords to raise asking rents at renovated, well-located assets. Where
CBD rents increased 0.9 percent quarter over quarter, average asking rates in the Pennsylvania suburbs
increased 2.4 percent, with core suburban submarkets and redevelopment activity in Horsham/Willow
Grove driving the majority of this increase. While new construction will create additional options in late
2017, we expect landlord favorable conditions to continue through the remainder of the year.
Source: JLL Research

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: May 2, 2016

Tenants in the market not enjoying the view:


high-rise vacancy less than six percent
Rentable area

Vacancy

Vacancy

Market East &


Market West
25th floor

7.0 m.s.f.

395,000 s.f.

5.6%

Market East &


Market West
Overall

40.0 m.s.f.

3.6 m.s.f.

8.9%

Just how scarce is high-rise space? While 18 percent of the 40 million square feet of office space in
Market East and Market West exists at or above the 25th floor, the vacancy at these heights (around
395,000 square feet) accounts for only 11 percent of the total vacancy between the two rivers. The
vacancy rate above the 25th floor (5.6 percent) is significantly below the total vacancy rate for these
combined submarkets. Said another way, high-rise vacant space makes up just under one percent of the
total rentable square footage in Market East and West. Qualitatively, high-rise space is further challenged
by its distribution: there are only six full high-rise floors available and only a half dozen more spaces of at
least 10,000 square feet.
Source: JLL Research

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: May 9, 2016

Philadelphia industrial Class A rents growing


3.5% annually on average since 2012

Annual
Growth

$5.10

Average asking rent (Class A)

$4.90
$4.70

$4.50
$4.30
$4.10

$4.38

$3.90

$4.03
$3.95
$3.92

$3.70

$3.72

$4.95

+3.1%

$4.75
$4.63

+4.9%

$4.43
$4.31

+4.5%

+3.5%

+2.2%

$3.50

2012
Lehigh Valley

2013
Central Pennsylvania

2014
Philadelphia Market

2015
Southern New Jersey

2016
I-81 Corridor

Class A industrial asking rents have grown rapidly over the past four years, with Central Pennsylvania
leading the way. While the Lehigh Valley has the highest asking rent of all the submarkets, Central
Pennsylvania and Southern New Jersey have seen the largest increases at 21.2 percent and 19.1
percent, total, and 4.9 percent and 4.5 percent annually. Central Pennsylvanias growth has been
impressive, but vacant speculative deliveries will likely slow rental rate appreciation in 2016 as quality
options for tenants continue to increase. Southern New Jerseys average asking rent will most likely
experience the largest growth in 2016 as Class A vacancy continues to decline and most new
construction is highly pre-leased upon delivery.
Source: JLL Research

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: May 16, 2016

350,000

552,218

538,265

531,569

Share of
regional
jobs

Boston MSA

512,839

464,839

498,692

20.9%

447,690

494,780

15.5%

402,380

400,000

390,583

450,000

437,547

500,000

452,792

16.6%

430,753

472,514

550,000

516,487

Share of
600,000 regional jobs

376,820

Healthcare & education jobs


(NAICS 61 & 62)

Compared to Boston, Philadelphia boasts


more than its fair share of eds and meds jobs

20.6%

Philadelphia MSA

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

300,000

Eds and meds are consistently recognized as the driving force behind the Philadelphia regional economy,
and with good reason: more than a half million jobs are tied to the healthcare and education sectors,
comprising nearly 21 percent of all regional jobs. But just how strong are eds and meds compared to a
peer region like Boston? A comparison of job growth over time demonstrates that although eds and meds
jobs have grown faster in Boston (2.4 percent annually on average since 2001, versus 1.8 percent in
Philadelphia), Philadelphia still has not only a larger total number of eds and meds jobs but a greater
concentration as well. This concentration of economic activity in a recession proof sector will help to
buoy the region and real estate market in the next downturn.
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: May 23, 2016

YTD leasing activity shows CBD out-of-market


demand, organic growth outpacing 2015 levels
Unknown
1.5%
Inbound - Out of
Market
16.7%
Within Market - Other
Renewal/ Relocation
32.7%

Inbound Suburbs
10.3%

Within Market - Organic


Growth
38.8%

Total office leasing activity YTD: 665,720 s.f.


Of the 665,000 square feet of office leasing activity throughout the CBD in 2016, out-of-market and
suburban tenants such as Carpenter Technology, Marcus & Millichap, and The Yard - make up 27
percent of known activity, up slightly from 2015s year-end rate of 23 percent. Net expansions by
homegrown tenants, led by Comcast, account for nearly 40 percent of all activity. If the CBD continues to
experience significant interest from outside the market and existing tenants continue to grow,
competition will increase for supply that is already tight. Net new demand is also encouraging news for
landlords and developers seeking to backfill space or kick off new projects.
Source: JLL Research

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: May 30, 2016

Central Pennsylvania, once Philadelphias


3PL hub, no longer dominates the market
80%

7.2%
2.2%
17.3%

6.5%
5.3%

3.3%

3.6%

9.5%

10.4%

7.9%

8.8%

11.6%

30,000,000
28,293,056
27,000,000

22.7%

27.6%
60%

40%

34.9%

24,000,000

21,000,000

73.3%
57.6%

50.7%

20%

39.6%

18,000,000

3PL square feet occupied

3PL Philadelphia market occupancy

100%

15,863,404
0%

15,000,000
2013

Central PA

Lehigh Valley

2014
Southern NJ

2015
I-81 Corridor

2016

City of Philadelphia & Suburbs

3PL Occupancy

Third party logistics (3PL) leasing has grown each year in Philadelphias industrial market since 2013 by
approximately 15.5 percent, with Allen Distribution, OHL, FedEx Ground, and UPS growing most rapidly.
Currently, there are 3.6 million square feet of 3PL requirements in the market, and this level of velocity is likely
to continue in the near future. While 3PL providers were largely concentrated in Central Pennsylvania four
years ago, occupancy is now more distributed throughout the rest of the Philadelphia market. The I-81
Corridor, which had zero percent submarket share of 3PL tenants in 2013, now has a 10.4 percent submarket
share, and Lehigh Valley has grown from 17.3 percent of 3PL market share to nearly 35 percent.
Source: JLL Research

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: June 6, 2016

Center City high street retail trades on track


for record-breaking levels
200,000

$800

188,190
$707

180,000

$700

166,911

$600
140,000

$575

$500

120,000
100,000
80,000

99,955

$400

$373

$344

74,234

$300

60,000

Average price p.s.f.

High Street retail s.f. sold

160,000

$200

40,000
$100

20,000
0

$0
2013

2014

2015

2016 YTD

Its no secret that Center Citys high street retailer corridors (Walnut Street and Chestnut Street, west of
Broad Street) continue to boom as downtown adds both millennial and empty nester residents and
continues to attract jobs. According to the Center City District, nearly 30,000 pedestrians walk Center
Citys high streets daily at peak times of the year to shop, dine, and commute to work. Recent high street
retail trades demonstrate investor bullishness in Philadelphia high street retail as well. With three asset
trades year-to-date averaging more than $700 per square foot, 2016 is well on its way to record-breaking
pricing for prime retail downtown.
Source: JLL Research

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: June 13, 2016

Radnor employment is up more than 50%


above its pre-recessionary peak
7,000
6,500

6,195
5,875

6,000
Wage and Salary Jobs

6,345

5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000

4,154

3,897

3,775

3,801

3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

The most expensive office submarket in the Pennsylvania suburbs of Philadelphia has also seen the
most dramatic job growth on a percentage basis coming out of the recession. 2014 data (the most recent
available) show total jobs swelling 52.7% above the 2008 peak. This dramatic growth rate is a factor in
Delaware Countys standing as the best-performing county post-recession, with 2.5% overall job growth
above the previous peak. Radnors relatively small number of suitable office development sites may
serve to constrain job growth in the future.
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: June 20, 2016

Cold storage location key for 3PLs supply


chain targeting the citys population
971,779 s.f.
30.1% 3PL

4,895,760 s.f.
59.5% 3PL

3,322,713 s.f.
44.5% 3PL

1,015,534 s.f.
29.4% 3PL

319,580 s.f.
42.2% 3PL

734,019 s.f.
9.3% 3PL

1,775,665 s.f.
47.8% 3PL

The e-commerce explosion has impacted many industrial industries such as food & beverage and 3PLs.
With third party logistics companies needing to provide refrigerated and/or freezer space for timely
shipment of products, these companies are leasing industrial facilities with cold storage. Since 2013, the
industrial cold storage inventory has delivered 3.8 million square feet, 52 percent of which has been
leased by 3PL companies. Cold storage facilities are largely located just outside of the city in submarkets
such as Lehigh Valley, Central Pennsylvania, and Southern New Jersey for access to the population.
Source: JLL Research

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: June 27, 2016

Philadelphia markets Fortune 500 companies


concentrated in burbs, more profitable in city
Revenue
Southern NJ
Lehigh Valley
$13.2B
$17.6B
4%
5%

Northern DE
$33.1B
9%
Harrisburg
$33.9B
9%

City of Philadelphia
$97.6B
26%

Profitability

Regional Fortune 500

PA Suburbs
$177B
47%

12. AmerisourceBergen
37. Comcast
101. DuPont
107. Rite Aid
199. Aramark
205. Lincoln National
288. Air Products & Chemicals
290. Universal Health Services
321. Crown Holdings
337. Campbell Soup
350. PPL
362. Hershey
384. UGI
457. Genesis Healthcare
484. Airgas
494. Navient
500. Burlington Stores

Southern NJ
$840M
4%

PA Suburbs
$1.92B
10%
Lehigh Valley
$1.96B
10%
Harrisburg
$2.62B
14%

City of Philadelphia
$8.79B
46%

Northern DE
$2.95B
16%

Like the rest of the regions economy, Philadelphias 17 Fortune 500 companies are highly diversified,
ranging in industries from healthcare to chemical production to consumer products. With an average
rank of 290 on the list, these firms collectively generate $372.4 billion in revenue around the region.
While the largest revenue-earning firms may be in the Pennsylvania suburbs, Comcast drives profitability
in the region, netting $8.16 billion in 2015, an 11 percent margin, partially offset by AmerisourceBergens
$130 million loss last year. While these figures may be impressive, Philadelphia overall lacks large,
corporate headquarters, which poses long term challenges to the regions growth trajectory.
Source: JLL Research, Fortune

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: July 4, 2016

CBD sees 9.1% rent growth year-over-year,


driven by record asking rates at new deliveries
University City

Market West

Market East

15.0%

Year-over-year change in average


asking rent

13.1%

12.9%

10.0%

5.2%

5.0%

5.0%

4.4%

3.3%
1.7%
0.7%

1.4%
0.1%

0.0%

-2.0%

-2.6%
-5.0%

Q2 2013

Q2 2014

Q2 2015

Q2 2016

For years, typical 12-month office rent growth has been negative, flat, or tepidly positive. Q2 2016
statistics reveal the strongest asking rent growth in years across the CBD overall at 9.1 percent, as well
as unprecedented double digit growth in Market East and University City. The delivery of FMC Tower,
where full service rents approach the $50 mark, is driving the surge west of the Schuylkill. On the east
side of town, the nearly complete turnover of inventory in the Independence Mall micromarket to new
ownership and the significant renovations taking place are leading asking rate increases. New product in
Midtown Village also continues to ask and receive record rental rates east of Broad Street.
Source: JLL Research

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: July 11, 2016

Philadelphias industrial market records


strongest positive absorption in five years
18,000,000

12.0%
10.3%

15,000,000

10.0%
7.8%

12,000,000

6.9%

9,000,000

2,647,457
3,194,397

4,109,204
5,293,625

3,000,000

2,120,911
1,460,755

6.0%

4,078,981

3,522,847

8,941,829

1,455,745
2,778,965

2,600,655

2013
Q1

2014
Q2

Q3

Q4

4.0%
2.0%

3,050,733

1,254,831

2012

8.0%

6.4%

5,326,140

6,000,000

6.4%

1,001,198

1,683,751

2015

2016

0.0%

Vacancy

Philadelphias industrial market posted nearly 8.9 million square feet of net absorption in the second
quarter, the largest quarterly absorption over the past five years. At this years midpoint, absorption is
roughly 800,000 square feet away from surpassing 2015s total. While record-breaking construction
volumes have delivered 19.6 million square feet to the market over the past year, 14.8 million square
feet of this space has already leased. Construction continues to be a driver in the market as tenant
options for quality assets in good locations are extremely limited. Although year-to-date absorption is
approaching record levels, vacancy still hovers at 6.4 percent, largely due to 4.8 million square feet of
vacant deliveries over the past 12 months. With current tenant demand at roughly 27 million square
feet, we anticipate ongoing positive absorption through the remainder of the year.
Source: JLL Research

Vacancy

Net absorption

6,265,071

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: July 18, 2016

Class A suburban office availabilities low and


expensive in core suburban submarkets
35%
31%

Availability rate

30%
25%

Avg.
rent:
$23.71

20%
16%
15%

10%

Avg.
rent:
$23.51

27%

Avg.
rent:
$31.00

23%

17%

18%

Avg.
rent:
$27.84

Avg.
rent:
$24.29

Avg.
rent:
$19.81

5%
0%
Core

Class A Office Availability

Secondary

Tertiary

Class B Office Availability

Class A office availabilities in the Pennsylvania suburban submarkets averaged just 17 percent through
Q2, only 600 basis points higher than current total vacancy. Especially in core submarkets where rental
rates are at an all-time high, large Class A blocks are in short supply. However, large blocks of available
Class B space in the secondary suburban submarketsin particular at 1100-1140 Virginia Drive, the
Fort Washington Expo Centerhave created ample opportunity for upside through quality, Class A
renovations. With tenant demand in the suburbs currently at more than 4.4 million square feet, including
some new to market tenants, demand for competition for quality space is expected to continue and is
likely to drive ongoing redevelopment of Class B office buildings.
Source: JLL Research

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: July 25, 2016

3M Class B vacancy: midrise buildings


outperform single story offices
25%
21.9%
19.8%

3M Class B Vacancy Rate

20%

18.3%

17.3%

18.9%

Avg.
15.0%
rent:
$23.71

15%

Avg.
rent:
$23.51
15.5%

17.5%

13.9%

13.2%

Avg.
rent:
$19.81

12.9%

Avg.
rent: 9.8%
$24.29

Avg.
rent:
$27.84

Avg.
rent:
$31.00

10%

18.3%

8.1%

5%

0%

2010

2011

2012
One Floor

2013

2014

2015

2016 YTD

Midrise

While the Southern New Jersey office market typically underperforms the region as a whole, Mount
Laurel / Marlton / Moorestown (3M) has emerged as a bright spot, with Class A vacancy sitting at sub5.0 percent at the end of the second quarter and full-service rental rates exceeding $25 per square foot.
However, understanding the nuances of Class B in in a submarket where more than 56 percent of office
product exists in this space is critical. Over the past five years, midrise Class B space has consistently
outperformed its single-story counterparts, achieving sub-10.0 percent vacancy and a delta in
occupancy of 130 basis points this year. As Class A options continue to diminish, opportunity for Class B
midrise occupancy gains may emerge.
Source: JLL Research

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: August 1, 2016

CBD office leasing 54% lower than previous


year, deviating from local & national patterns
CBD leasing activity (s.f.)

National leasing activity (s.f.)

875,497

Avg.
rent:
$27.84

Avg.
rent:
55,000,000
$19.81

50,001,185
Avg.
rent:
$24.29

50,000,000

100,000

225,008

200,000

595,586

300,000

605,217

400,000

742,848

500,000

Avg.
rent:
$31.00

780,626

600,000

660,290

700,000

59,097,327 60,000,000

474,358

Avg.
rent:
$23.71

889,040

58,292,828

60,836,300

Avg.
rent:
$23.51

61,092,787

585,739

900,000
800,000

65,000,000

63,415,112

National office leasing (s.f.)

Philadelphia CBD office leasing (s.f.)

1,000,000

45,000,000

40,000,000

Q1 2014

Q2 2014

Q3 2014

Q4 2014

Q1 2015

Q2 2015

Q3 2015

Q4 2015

Q1 2016

Q2 2016

Leasing volumes in the CBD have not tracked with the national pattern in recent years: 2014 and 2015
data show mid-year peaks nationally and slowdowns locally. While the patterns differ, overall activity
increased in 2015 in Center City and across the country. Q1 2016 saw a precipitous drop-off in Center
City and the U.S., followed by significant divergence. With a significant rebound nationally, year-to-date
leasing activity is down approximately 8% compared to the first half of last year. In Philadelphia, an
exceptionally slow second quarter means year-to-date leasing activity is 54% off last years totals. A
looming wave of large CBD lease expirations, coupled with inbound demand from small and medium
size tenants, means volumes are likely to increase near-term pending a potential recession.
Source: JLL Research

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: August 8, 2016

Industrial land pricing increases as land sale


volumes decline
$18

1,600

$15.56

$16
$15

$13.68

$14

$13.08

$13
$12

Annual
growth 1,200
20132016
+6.3%
800

$11.63

$11

$11.36
$10.60

$10

$10.31

$11.77

Acres sold

Average land price p.s.f.

$17

$10.78

$11.22
$10.77

+1.4%
+0.5% 400

$9.87

$9
$8

2013

2014
Acres Sold

Central PA

2015
Lehigh Valley

2016
Greater Philadelphia

The Greater Philadelphia industrial market is currently driven by development projects as vacancy rates
for Class A buildings hover around 2.3 percent. Although there is currently 13.3 million square feet of
active construction in the market and 25.2 million square feet delivered since 2015, options for industrial
development have continued to decline since 2013. The Lehigh Valley leads the market with 6.3 percent
of growth in average per-square-foot land pricing since 2013 as Class A vacancy stands at 0.8 percent
and land owners know how dynamic and appealing the Lehigh Valley is for development groups. Average
land prices are expected to increase throughout 2016 as land development options continue to decline
and Class A rents continue to grow 2.8 percent on average.
Source: JLL Research

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: August 15, 2016

Class B office renovations driving rental rates


in Fort Washington, outperforming PA suburbs
$24.55

+10.2%

$23.24

+3.8%

Average asking rate

$24
$23

Annual growth

$25

$22 $21.74
$21 $20.60
$20
$19
2011

2012

2013

Pennsylvania Suburbs Class B Office

2014

2015

Fort Washington Class B Office

Q2
2016

Renovation of Class B office into higher quality space is a trend throughout the Pennsylvania suburbs
that has begun to drive up rents in select locations. Fort Washington in particular has seen a surge in
asking rents for Class B officean overall increase of 10.2 percent year-over-yeardue to extensive
planned renovations, including the overhauls of 1100-1140 Virginia Drive and Apex Fort Washington
(600-602 Office Center Drive). Recent upgrades are placing Fort Washingtons moderately priced office
spaces on par with the asking rents of more traditionally expensive Main Line submarkets
Malvern/Exton, King of Prussia/Wayne, and Plymouth Meeting/Blue Bell.
Source: JLL Research

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: August 22, 2016

Region on track with national employment


gains, but variances wide between counties
June 2016 Unemployment Rate

8.0%
7.0%
6.0%

6.9%
6.3%
5.6%

5.2%

5.0%

5.2%

5.1%

4.8%

4.6%

National unemployment
rate: 5.1%
4.5%

4.2%

4.1%

4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%

While the regional unemployment rate nearly mirrored the national unemployment rate in June 2016
(5.2 percent versus 5.1 percent), significant variances between counties still exist despite overall
employment gains. Unemployment in the City of Philadelphia is still 180 basis points higher than the
national average, but the current rate doesnt tell the whole story: Philadelphias unemployment rate
has fallen 450 basis points since 2012, even in light of labor force participation gains of nearly 8,000
residents. Rates below national levels in Northern Delaware, Bucks, Burlington, Montgomery, and
Chester Counties suggest tight labor force conditions in these areas and strong competition for
resident talent.
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: August 29, 2016

Rumors of a multifamily slowdown premature:


construction starts to continue through 2017
Construction Starts
(Units in projects >50 total units)

3,000

2,447

2,500

2,313 *
2,097

2,107 *

2,000

1,500

1,371

1,000
608
500

0
2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Multifamily development has outpaced all other asset classes by a long shot in Philadelphias CBD, with
larger and more sophisticated developers kicking off high-end rental, condo, and mixed-use projects.
2014-2015 saw a combined 4,600 units break ground. The unprecedented pace sparked talks of
oversupply and pullback, but the pipeline remains robust. 2016 is on track to exceed 2015 for
construction starts with over 2,300 units underway or imminent, including a recently announced second
tower (240 units) at East Market and a 238-unit tower at 1900 Chestnut. Excluding less certain projects,
2017 is likely to sustain the pace of 2,000+ units per year. A 2018 slowdown appears more realistic.
Source: JLL Research

* Projected based on current construction schedules

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: September 5, 2016

Philadelphias major industrial regions exceed


national average for warehouse workers
90,000
80,000

2.5
78,380

2.24
2

70,000
1.66

1.59

50,000

1.5

1.35

40,000

36,690

National location
quotient average
1

30,000
20,000

Location quotient

60,000

Employment

61,560

58,230

0.62
0.5
10,260

10,000
0

Philadelphia MSA

Harrisburg MSA

Allentown MSA

Employment

York-Hanover MSA

Lebanon, PA

Location Quotient

Location quotients quantify how concentrated employment in a given industry is in a particular


geographic area compared to the national average. They are useful in understanding what areas have
a competitive labor pool advantage. The Harrisburg, Allentown, York, and Lebanon metropolitan
statistical areas, encompassing the heart of the Lehigh Valley and Central Pennsylvania industrial
submarkets, all display clear labor advantages for tenants locating in these areas, as evidenced by their
above-average location quotient. While competitive labor conditions persist across the market,
industrial employers seeking skilled workers may find it beneficial to operate facilities in these areas
due to the density of warehouse and distribution skillsets.
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: September 12, 2016

King of Prussia to add significant supply of


residential, retail, and some office by 2020
Multifamily residential
Retail
Office
King of Prussia / Wayne submarket

Multifamily residential
1. Hanover Valley Forge
339 units, projected delivery Q2 2017
2. AVE King of Prussia
275 units, projected delivery Q2 2017
3. Indigo 301
363 units, projected delivery Q2 2017
4. Active Adult Community - Village at
Valley Forge
231 units, projected delivery Q2 2018
5. Brownstones - Village at Valley Forge
132 units, projected delivery Q2 2017
6. 251 DeKalb
650 units, projected delivery Q3 2016
7. 750 Moore Rd,* 248 units
8. 2901 Renaissance Blvd,* 300 units
9. 2501 Renaissance Blvd,* 250 units
10. 751 Vandenberg,* 320 units
11. Bridgeview Apartments,* 600 units

Retail
12. King of Prussia Town Center
390,000 s.f. projected delivery: Q3 2016
13. King of Prussia Mall Connector
155,000 s.f., completed August 2016

A flurry of new construction could make the King of Prussia / Wayne submarket
a new residential district, with more than 3,000 units either underway or slated
for development by year end. The submarket has been booming with activity,
with the completion of the King of Prussia Mall connector and near completion
of the KOP Town Center. For the first time in a decade, new office construction
is underway at Highway to Healths 110,000-square-foot, build-to-suit project.
Source: JLL Research, CartoDB, OpenStreetMap

Office
14. 955 First Avenue
110,500 s.f. BTS for Highway to Health
15. 1250 Morris Avenue*
60,494 s.f. building (Chesterbrook
Corporate Center)
* Planned to start by December 2016

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: September 19, 2016

Philadelphia region dominates eds & meds


employment share in major life science markets
2012

2014
= Total Eds & Meds jobs

11.8%

12.1%

64,000
12.1%

12.5%

12.3%

165,000
12.0%

13.6%

12.3%

242,000
12.2%

13.7%

183,000
12.2%

15.5%

15.5%

668,000

11.6%

15.0%

12.9%

12.6%

16.0%

900,000

14.8%

18.5%

18.3%

1,618,000
18.2%

20.6%

513,000
19.8%

20.9%

2010
19.5%

20.0%

20.8%

552,000
20.4%

Eds & Meds share of regional employment

25.0%

10.0%

5.0%

0.0%
Philadelphia MSA Boston MSA

New York MSALos Angeles MSA Chicago MSA San Diego MSA Seattle MSA

Denver MSA

Raleigh MSA

Healthcare, education, and life sciences employment have been the consistent growth engines of the
Philadelphia region. Stacking up against other important eds, meds, and life sciences markets,
Philadelphias dominance in this sector is even clearer: as a percentage of the regional economy,
Philadelphias 20.9 percent employment share outpaces even Boston and New York, and total jobs in the
sector exceed five of these nine markets, driving new construction of lab, medical office, and traditional
office for institutions and private companies throughout the region.
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: September 26, 2016

Q3 leasing in review: low-rise, large floorplate,


non-skyline buildings dominated CBD deals
Undisclosed (expansion)
1900 Market Street
56,000 square feet on the
8th floor

Aramark (from 1101 Market)


2400 Market Street
279,000 square feet on
floors 5-9

Five Below (from 1818


Market)
701 Market Street
180,000 square feet (exact
floors unknown)

Bohlin Cywinski Jackson


(from 123 S. Broad Street)
34 S 11th Street (East Market)
18,000 square feet on the 6th
floor

GSA (Health & Human


Services, from Public Ledger)
801 Market Street
97,000 square feet on the
8th and 9th floors

Five large leases make up approximately 90% of all recorded activity in the CBD during the third quarter.
Four of the five are relocations from other CBD locations, with some contraction (Aramark, consolidating
to 279,000 square feet) and some expansion (Five Below, growing to 180,000 square feet). None of these
deals took place in a skyline-defining office tower. Rather, these tenants are heading to buildings with
large, mostly open floorplates (25,000 67,000 square feet), low-rise floors (nothing above the 9th floor),
and off-core or untested locations, from the banks of the Schuylkill to the evolving Market East. While a
dearth of high-rise large blocks is partially to blame, the moves speak to the increasing viability of
locations outside the traditional office core, changing work habits and worksite preferences, and the
importance of on-site and nearby amenities including tenant outdoor spaces, shopping, and recreation.
Source: JLL Research

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: October 3, 2016

Inventory grows 16.7% in Greater Philadelphias


major industrial submarkets since 2010
Spec Delivered 48.1% Spec Delivered 57.1%

Spec Delivered 38.2% Spec Delivered 41.2%

120,000,000

66,014,178

60,652,516

63,687,970

20,000,000

57,821,588

40,000,000

79,626,023

60,000,000

61,170,068

80,000,000

128,077,156

100,000,000

109,445,795

Total Inventory (s.f.)

140,000,000

2010

2016*

2010

2016*

0
2010

2016*

Central PA

2010

2016*

Lehigh Valley

Southern NJ

I-81 Corridor

Greater Philadelphias industrial logistics inventory has grown a staggering 16.7 percent in core logistics markets
over the past six years, with another 6.2 million square feet set to deliver before years end. 2015 contributed to the
largest volume of inventory growth, contributing 15.6 million square feet to industrial deliveries, 52.1 percent of which
broke ground speculatively. While only 4.4 percent of 2016s new inventory broke ground with tenants in place, 30.8
percent is currently pre-leased. Major projects to deliver since 2010 include Georgia Pacific, Procter & Gamble,
Grainger, and Unilevers built-to-suits totaling 5.8 million square feet, along with major speculative projects such as
8620 Congdon Hill Drive, Trade Center 83, and 1610 Van Buren totaling 3.5 million square feet, all of which is currently
100 percent leased.
Source: JLL Research

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: October 10, 2016

Prime suburban office submarkets and B to A


conversions driving rental rate increases
Plymouth Meeting/Blue Bell
Valley Forge/Norristown
Fort Washington
Central Bucks County
Conshohocken
King of Prussia/Wayne
Delaware County
Horsham/Willow Grove
Lower Bucks County
West Chester
Bala Cynwyd
Malvern/Exton
Radnor
W. Montgomery County

11.0%
9.4%
8.8%
4.2%
3.8%
3.5%
3.0%
2.3%
2.0%
1.1%
-0.4%
-0.8%
-1.1%
-2.8%

-3%

-2%

-1%

PA Burbs year-over-year
rent growth: 4%
0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10% 11% 12%

Year-over-year average asking rental rate increase

Demand for quality office product without the high price tag of Radnor or Conshohocken continues to
push rental rates in well-located suburban submarkets. Plymouth Meeting / Blue Bell, which has a Class
A vacancy rate of around 3 percent but ample Class B space, saw a year-over-year rent increase of 11
percent, attributable to landlords of higher quality Class B properties growing more bullish. Also
contributing to overall rental rate increases is Fort Washington, where the average asking rent has
increased by nearly 9 percent year-over-year thanks to recent upgrades to existing stock. In general,
the rental rates have remained stagnant in Valley Forge / Norristown, but 27,000 square feet of leasing
at 1 W Main St has removed cheap space from the submarket, pushing rental rates up 9.4 percent
year-over-year.
Source: JLL Research

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: October 17, 2016

CBD tenants continue to expand footprints,


contributing to tightening downtown market
Growing

Stable

Contracting

60.0%

Tenants in the market

50.0%
50.0%

54.0%

52.4%

46.2%

43.9%
40.2%

40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%

16.4%

15.2%
5.7%

3.8%

0.0%
2014 Q3

2014 Q4

2015 Q1

2015 Q2

2015 Q3

2015 Q4

2016 Q1

2016 Q2

2016 Q3

With nearly 900,000 square feet of new and renovated office product delivering in the central business
district year-to-date, questions about ongoing tenant demand and market softening have naturally arisen.
Will the occupancy gains of this cycle come to a halt in the near future? A glimpse at the profile of current
and historic tenants in the downtown market provides some clues about future absorption trends. Over
the course of 2016, the percentage of tenants in the market looking to shrink their footprint has declined
to just 5.7 percent of total requirements, while expanding tenants in the market represent more than 40
percent of all current requirements. Barring macroeconomic instability, we expect overall CBD absorption
metrics to remain positive into the new year.
Source: JLL Research

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: October 24, 2016

Apartment projects seeing vastly different


lease-up rates as market adjusts to supply
363
321

25

Total sample inventory: 1,808 units


Overall lease-up: 803 units (44.4%)
Average monthly lease-up: 13.2 units

26 units

400

350
293

20

20 units

235

10

250

217
162

15
12 units

200

12 units

13 units
112

105
8 units

8 units

150
7 units

5
0

300

Inventory

Monthly absorption

30

100
50

221

182

105

82

77

3601 Market 1919 Market One Water Fairmount at The Collins


Street
Brewerytown
Total units

76
The Griffin

40

20

AKA
Dalian on the
University
Park
City

Total units absorbed to date

Recent multifamily projects show wide variations in lease-up rates and absorption as competition
increases at the high end of the market. In terms of velocity, the winners are in the heart of the CBD
(1919 Market), an untested waterfront location (One Water Street), and the booming Market East area
(The Collins), with the latter two projects on pace to lease up in under a year. There is little correlation
between time on the market and absorption: The Collins has the highest lease-up rate with only 6
months of marketing (69%), while the next fullest property, 3601 Market, is 61% leased after 18 months.
The next wave will expand tenant options in core areas (Market East, Rittenhouse, Old City) and offer
high-end product in less mature locations (North Broad, Powelton Village). Subtle differences in
amenities, unit size, pricing, and locations will make all the difference for developers and tenants alike.
Source: JLL Research, Philadelphia Business Journal, Delta Associates

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: October 31, 2016

New warehouse and distribution centers create more


than 14,300 jobs market-wide since 2015
100

91.0

90

8,000
86.2
6,700

80

Total number of jobs

7,000
74.1

6,000

70
60

52.6

50

5,000
50.3

47.5

4,000

41.3

40

33.0

30
20

2,000

1,932

1,540

3,000

Total number of jobs

1,530

10

507

839

660

601

1,000

Food & Beverage

Retail

Consumer Goods

Pet Supply

Industrial Supply

Manufacturing

E-commerce

3PL

Number of jobs per 100,000 square feet

Number of jobs per 100,000 square feet

The warehouse and distribution sector has created more than 14,300 jobs across the Greater Philadelphia
market since 2015, 50 percent of which have been in the Lehigh Valley. As the industry evolves to meet new
tenant demands, understanding tenant employee densities by industry will be key in development decisions. Ecommerce and 3PL leasing activity has significantly increased, accounting for roughly 35 percent of the total
square footage leased since 2015. As these industries account for the highest concentration of jobs per
100,000 square feet leased, savvy landlords will need to adjust adjust their development plans to attract these
tenants with respect to car parking, employee amenities, sewage levels, and other factors.
Source: JLL Research

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: November 7, 2016

Philadelphia leads in housing affordability


among top 10 U.S. cities, East Coast peers

$206,594

$225,364

$241,787

6%

$236,456

$263,099

$260,358

$251,945

$248,478

$378,829

$400,000

8%

$439,996

$600,000

$544,470

$633,257

$1,122,518

$800,000

$1,314,883

$1,000,000

10%

4%

$200,000

2%

$0

0%

2017 price median home

2020 projected median home price

Projected Growth

Median Home Price

$1,200,000

12%

$1,374,457

$1,400,000

3 year projected growth

The Philadelphia region continues to outcompete the largest U.S. markets for the title of most affordable
metro, as measured by an index that considers median home price as a function of median income in the
market. While Philadelphias median home prices hover close to the national average, the regions below
average growth predictions, combined with major increases in the cost of housing in major Texas markets,
will reinforce Philadelphias position as a leader in affordability among the major U.S. cities in the coming
years. Interestingly, the low cost of housing in the market has not slowed down new home construction:
estimates suggest a 52 percent year-over-year increase in single-family home starts in 2017.
Source: JLL Research, ULI

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: November 14, 2016

Regions fastest growing companies bigger in


suburbs, adding employees quicker in city
City

Suburbs

14,000

12,052

Local Employees

12,000
9,682

10,000
8,000

6,541

+21%

6,000

+43%
4,000

8,782

6,144

2,000
-

10,656

+55%

+127%
397

900

1,396

2013

2014

2015

In 2015, the Philadelphia regions 50 largest companies (as identified by the Philadelphia Business
Journal) produced a total of $2 billion in revenue and supported more than 12,000 jobs, up from $1.28
billion and 6,500 jobs in 2013. While only 10 firms, 1,400 jobs, and $72.75 million were located or earned
in the city, city-based firms outperformed their suburban peers on job creation and revenue growth 2013
to 2015. While the suburbs clearly outshine the city in magnitude, job creation and revenue growth rates
in the city of Philadelphia suggest that there may be competitive advantages to locating in the city for
some firms.
Source: JLL Research, Philadelphia Business Journal

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: November 28, 2016

Greater Philadelphia industrial construction


struggles to keep up with new tenant demand
30,000,000
25,963,300

25,473,300
20,659,000

13,486,216

12,655,777

12,562,037

2016 Q2

2016 Q3

2016 Q4

13,638,182

15,457,178

7,259,062
2015 Q1

17,210,800

15,442,000

10,669,765

6,910,702

5,000,000

2,806,924

10,000,000

1,590,148

15,000,000

2014 Q4

16,623,000

17,430,726

20,000,000

1,139,988

Square Feet

25,000,000

Speculative Construction Underway

2016 Q1

2015 Q4

2015 Q3

2015 Q2

2014 Q3

2014 Q2

2014 Q1

New Tenants in the Market

Construction in the Greater Philadelphia industrial market has undergone a shift over the past three years. Where
speculative construction accounted for 20.2 percent of total active construction in the beginning of 2014, today
accounts for 66.5 percent and more then 12.5 million square feet. Despite this increase, speculative construction is
still unlikely to meet the demands of new tenants in the market, which have surged to their highest level on record at
26.0 million square feet, or 0.48 square feet of new construction for every square foot of new tenant demand. On the
submarket level, the Lehigh Valley leads the market overall with 17.1 million square feet (65 percent) of all new tenant
requirements looking at the submarket (in addition to others) but only 4.2 million square feet of the entire markets
speculative construction. Nineteen percent of the Lehigh Valleys speculative construction is pre-leased at this time.
Source: JLL Research

Philadelphia
Chart of the week: December 5, 2016

Multifamily

Office

Retail

Total PA Suburban
Construction Pipeline:
6.4 m.s.f.

Hospitality

2,221,343

Core

1,040,725

693,425

500,000

610,275

1,425,300

1,000,000

1,425,300

1,350,000

1,100,000

1,500,000

1,984,700

1,813,656

2,000,000

800,000

2,500,000

1,132,343

Construction pipeline (s.f.)

More than 55% of projects in the suburban


development pipeline are multifamily rentals

494,600

349,204

Secondary

255,528

123,678

123,040

Tertiary

Multifamily projects dominate the suburban Philadelphia construction pipeline, with under construction or
proposed development (projects that have a projected breaking ground date in the coming year) totaling
5.9 million square feet. Driving the multifamily boom are the 1,000+ units underway by various
developers at the Village at Valley Forge in King of Prussia / Wayne and the 326 unit Haven at Atwater
development in Malvern / Exton, slated to wrap up by end of 2016. Another project demonstrating the
new dynamics of suburban commercial real estate is the 1.6 million square foot, mixed use Uptown
Worthington. The site will include 750 apartment units, 185,000 square feet of new office space, and a
massive lifestyle retailing center, which has been planned as a walkable, urban community in the heart of
suburban Malvern / Exton.
Source: JLL Research

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