Professional Documents
Culture Documents
IDC OPINION
At an extended, three-day conference of 140 CIOs and senior IT professionals held in
September 2009, IDC analysts discussed IT business, technology, and acquisition
www.idc.com
strategies expected for the balance of 2009 and 2010. A wide cross-section of
industries were represented, including financial services, discrete manufacturing,
hospitality, healthcare, retail, and CPG. The clear consensus among some two-thirds
of the participants was that the recent economic turbulence, and the resulting shifts in
F.508.935.4015
business and technology models, would echo for several years, creating a "new
normal" for IT budgets, capital availability, and technology adoption models. And
while IDC defines its mission as an IT market research firm choosing not to publish
broader economic measures such as GDP, investment levels, and unemployment,
the analysis in this document reflects the clear sentiment of the conference
P.508.872.8200
participants and explores how a "new normal" could impact IT organizations, the IT
provider ecosystem that supports them, and IT professionals worldwide.
Coincidentally, as this document is being prepared at the end of 3Q09, many
business leaders and economists have begun publicly forecasting a very modest,
multiyear economic recovery. Against this backdrop of "new normal" economic
Global Headquarters: 5 Speen Street Framingham, MA 01701 USA
operating practices, the IT industry and technology platforms seem poised for a
period of significant change. Arguably, since the last recession in 2001, IT innovation
has focused on perfecting and solidifying concepts, platforms, and technologies that
were on the table eight years ago. IDC believes that in the next few years, we will
witness considerable IT platform change — from next-generation datacenters and
ERP software to a wide range of off-premise computing options. In the face of
potential platform changes, IDC believes IT organizations and the companies they
support will remain very cautious with their investment spending through at least
2010. In addition:
During the course of the event, in facilitated group discussions, presentations, and
one-on-one discussions, in-depth conversations took place involving the IT issues
confronting both individual companies and IT in general.
Much of the discussion centered on the economic outlook and how it would shape
future IT budgets, strategies, and platform choices. As the discussions ensued, a
consensus emerged. Approximately two-thirds of the CIOs present believed that the
changes in business and technology management implemented as a response to the
recession have, in fact, become part of the permanent ongoing business framework.
This sense that a "new normal" has emerged and become instantiated, combined
with a mediocre three-year economic outlook for most of the world's mature countries,
has led us to summarize these insights and predictions.
SITUATION OVERVIEW
The world's economies have been struggling since late in 2007 in a period of
economic turmoil that has come to be known as the "Great Recession." Beyond being
a significant retrenchment in overall economic activity, this period has been marked
by an unprecedented contraction in the availability of capital — capital to fuel
business operation and capital to fuel business investment. Business and IT leaders
have responded to the changed conditions by making a number of tactical changes.
As it has become clear that markets will remain turbulent and that organizations will
face a prolonged period of changed conditions, there is a clear sense that a "new
normal" must be faced.
IT
IT Management
Management Landscape
Landscape
The
The New
New Normal:
Normal: Reaction
Reaction and
and Effect
Effect
Equipment
Cost and Sourcing IT financial
Strategies leasing and Life-cycle
funding and platform management
software management
management strategies tools
financing
IT leaders reported to IDC that they adopted these practices in an expedient manner,
generally without the benefit of detailed financial information to help them quantify the
impact of the changes. Essentially, they looked at the cost of the new equipment and
compared it with the cost of an additional year of maintenance — without being able
to fully quantify the entire cost via a more comprehensive life-cycle management
analysis.
CIOs and other IT executives speak quite passionately when discussing IT software
provider business practices, and their comments are not always positive. Many speak
When acquiring new software, many organizations reported that they deducted the
value of the benefits expected from their budgets. This dictated software purchases
that were quite tactical and made relatively early in their budget year.
Finally, the topic of open source software was discussed at length and in virtually
every venue. A principal issue confronting companies considering open source
software was their level of risk tolerance. Many financial services companies require
their software suppliers to provide liability coverage — often as much as $10 million
or more. With open source software, this is not available. Therefore, the organizations
choosing to deploy it are underwriting this risk themselves. The challenge to the
business status quo has resulted in open source software being deployed within the
organization for inward-facing applications that do not directly affect customer data.
Capital constraints limiting the acquisition of new equipment or software have resulted
in many organizations shifting spend to their IT services. For example, as equipment
useful lives are pushed to four years and beyond, there are heightened concerns
about maintaining availability. As a result, most organizations maintain tier 1 levels of
coverage.
On the last point, ediscovery, many voices echoed the complexity, cost, and sheer
frustration that experiences have brought upon their IT shops. Many said that going
forward they would attempt to use external service companies because they did not
have the discretionary resources to underwrite these often painful projects.
Finally, we addressed the issue of outsourcing — a topic never far from anyone's
mind. While many leaders were quite clear that IT outsourcing has many challenges,
many were experimenting with different types of outsourcing. Rather than simply
seeking labor arbitrage opportunities, outsourcing specific business processes had
met with better outcomes — higher service levels and more predictable cost profiles.
FIGURE 2
Telecom
Financial
Healthcare
Materials
Utilities
IT
Industrials
Energy
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
(%)
IDC believes that this modest recovery in capital spending is consistent with a
modest, multiyear recovery and IT organizations' selective buying practices. Overall,
capital spending decreased by 3%, but in selective industries confronted with new
opportunities and requirements, investment has accelerated modestly.
The harsh reality is that most IT organizations do not have a comprehensive handle
on their delivery costs. Most do not have the internal systems and processes to
systematically track the cost per person of major applications (i.e., the cost of ERP
per user). The cost profile of necessary and integral functions such as security or
business continuity correlated to business process generally do not exist. Finally,
most IT organizations have no way to impute business value from their IT solutions.
The net result of this situation is that IT funding remains uncoupled from a deep
understanding of IT cost profiles.
IDC believes that cloud computing, or the use of off-premise compute resources, will
expand dramatically over the next 36–48 months. For a variety of reasons, this
technology (as it matures) will become a viable alternative to traditional IT delivery.
The challenge for IT organizations will come when aggressive third-party providers
approach their executives and propose to shift the compute loads from the company's
datacenter to their facilities. The company executives will ask IT to prepare an
analysis of the proposal.
Just as total-cost-of-ownership (TCO) analysis was all the rage during the go-go days
of IT outsourcing, increasingly, IT organizations will find they are being asked to
document their costs. And it will not be an easy or pleasant task.
The discussion around cloud or off-premise computing can be summarized into three
major points:
The likelihood that cloud computing will spark a burst of commercial IT innovation
similar to that witnessed by the Apple iTunes App Center, with its unbelievable
two-year record of 75,000 applications and 2 billion downloads, intrigues IT
professionals and will likely be the most effective reason to try the cloud.
The point is not to argue pro or con for one platform or another. At issue is that IT
organizations will have an increasing number of options to choose from to achieve
their objectives. Whether it is modernizing COBOL programs and moving them to a
new platform, shifting select business processes such as software testing or business
continuity to off-premise compute resources (the "cloud"), or taking a fresh approach
to the business value inherent in mission-critical back-office IT computing, the choices
are multiplying — rapidly — heralding a period of experimentation, innovation, and
change.
Most IT leaders IDC spoke with concur. What is less clear is an informed decision
framework to answer conclusively to the board of directors — "Yes, we have an
optimal platform strategy now, are watching the right things, and understand what
needs to evolve before we consider changing."
IDC believes that commercial organizations will return to IT leasing and financing as a
means of bolstering their access to IT resources. Most IT organizations have not
emphasized the internal process management required to achieve successful
outcomes from their IT leasing activities. In addition to changes in the absolute
amount of IT leasing and financing, increased focus on process management, both in
the form of focused human resources and tools, is also expected.
Most IT organizations plan the deployment and retirement of their major IT resources
— equipment, software, and applications. Yet, most IT organizations lack the real-
time tools and processes to systematically test whether they should fix or scrap IT
resources. As IT equipment continues to decline in price, this becomes more and
more problematic.
While all this may sound a bit esoteric, the issues are very real. Many IT
organizations report they have extended the planned deployment of a major
equipment type — from servers to storage and networking equipment. Without the
tools and the management discipline to optimize operational decisions, many of these
decisions are being made based on informed intuition.
Most organizations with annual revenue exceeding $1.5 billion have implemented
financial management software from one of the leading providers such as Oracle or
SAP. Despite the success, maturity, and capability of these software tools, they do
not map well to IT business management requirements. The organizing principles of
multiple "corporation" codes, cost centers, and a chart of accounts do not map to IT
requirements, which include the ability to track project costs from internal and external
teams, a human resource management system that can track and manage contract
employees, and system features to track and manage internally capitalized software
and projects (including distributing their costs across multiple countries as a way of
managing international taxation practices).
Current ad hoc systems of existing software with manual MS Excel integration has
met requirements when most expenses were internal. As IT platforms and business
ESSENTIAL GUIDANCE
Against this backdrop of "new normal" economic operating practices, the IT industry
and technology platforms seem poised for a period of significant change. Arguably,
since the last recession in 2001, IT innovation has focused on perfecting and
solidifying concepts, platforms, and technologies already on the table eight years ago.
From new, more efficient servers (courtesy of virtualization) to robust networks
capable of desktop video and sophisticated storage management tools and software,
IT has continued to become more efficient, effective, and reliable. Poised on the
horizon are a wide range of disruptive IT technologies and business models — from
new datacenter server products from "network company" Cisco to rapidly evolving off-
premise compute options (cloud computing) and next-generation ERP software suites
that promise flexibility and rapid reconfigurability — IDC believes the next few years
will witness considerable IT platform change.
LEARN MORE
Related Research
CAPEX vs. OPEX: How Capital & Budget Constraints Are Shaping IT Investment
& Platform Strategies (IDC #TB20090827, September 2009)
Synopsis
This IDC study examines the changes affecting IT equipment, software and services
management, and acquisition practices, including longer life cycles, rising interest in
open source software, and services trends such as outsourcing.
"Changes resulting from the recent economic turbulence are resulting in substantial
changes to business and technology management models that will echo for several
years, creating a "new normal" for IT budgets, capital availability, and technology
adoption models," says Joseph Pucciarelli, program director, Technology Financial
and Executive Strategies.
Copyright Notice
This IDC research document was published as part of an IDC continuous intelligence
service, providing written research, analyst interactions, telebriefings, and
conferences. Visit www.idc.com to learn more about IDC subscription and consulting
services. To view a list of IDC offices worldwide, visit www.idc.com/offices. Please
contact the IDC Hotline at 800.343.4952, ext. 7988 (or +1.508.988.7988) or
sales@idc.com for information on applying the price of this document toward the
purchase of an IDC service or for information on additional copies or Web rights.
Copyright 2009 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.