AFGHANISTAN LECTURE

Speaker: Seth Gannon & John Warden

Note: CSIS ev used

• War in Afghanistan – current state

o Tracked al quaeda back to Afghanistan
o Fighting al quaeda, Taliban forces
o Border with Pakistan – very long
 Very difficult to patrol/ secure due to length
o Sharp increase in 2009 in war escalation
 Focus of US was on Iraq, resources to Afghanistan fell causing escalation
 Obama decided a surge in 30k troops
o Scale of Taliban covers large percentage of southwestern Afghanistan; other militant regions
 Taliban ran by Kharzi
 Strong border with Iran (no Taliban spillover); Taliban spillover into Pakistan
 Border areas show higher percentage of security incidents/ insurgent activities
 Afghan impacts proliferate into Pakistan instability = Pakistan as “safe haven” for terrorists
• Can allow them to target various areas with room to retreat (ie. India)
 Civilian life within insurgent areas makes life increasingly troublesome
 IED (improvised explosive device) use dramatically increasing
• Can use this as DA ground for neg – need troops to clear
o Turn: IEDs usually targeted at troops
o Can never be effective enough to diffuse them all
• motive > means
o Poppy cultivation
 US tries to eliminate these poppy fields
• Obama administration advocated efforts to eradicate poppy fields
• Destroys profit, local economy – civilian livelihood
o Obama admin decided to find a substitute crop & police heroin trade
 Taliban can use poppy profit to purchase arms
 Helmand province one of the largest opium producers
 Non-opium provinces uncoincidently have a lower crime rate
o Allied efforts
 Confusing jurisdiction – multiple countries policing each province
 Ambiguous leadership
 DoD complexity causing transparent strategy
 How will US withdrawal affect the other countries’ police presences?
 Complex withdrawal
o Civilian casualties
 Human rights
 “hearts & minds” war – similar to Vietnam war
• Guts US support
 Drones keep targeting weddings
• ISAF-responsible attacks directly influence other civilian casualty activity
• = more civilian casualties
• August 09 – US recognizes the problem of civilian casualties
o PIC out of drones, etc.
o “remove v. reform”
o ASNF (Afghan National Security Force) goals
 Goal - 240k troops by 2013 (enough to sustain)
 Obama admin – start withdrawal by 2011
 • Immediate withdrawal (premature by ASNF terms) could potentially leave Afghanistan
unable to defend itself
 Obama strategy dictates the withdrawal mechanism – dictates the timetable
 Have to reduce presence
 Condition CP
• Withdraw on the condition that the ASNF meets the designated troop level to sustain
itself
o Kandahar
 2nd largest opium producer, 2nd largest city
 Cultural center for the Pashtun people
• Ethnic group originated out of Taliban
 Heavy warlord activity
• No real central gov.
• Economic inequity – black market, corruption
• US wanted to kick Taliban out
o Coin = counter insurgency
o Trouble isolating the Pashtuns
 Requires “infiltration” to integrate
• Pashtun warlords in gov.
 Alienation of Pashtuns
o Issue of corrupt gov. v. no gov.
o Similar to Iraq issue – corruption > no gov ?
o Karzai gov. not able to negotiate with corrupt gov.
o US withdrawal may allow a coalition of gov.
 Corrupt but o/w no gov.
o Complex insurgency and complex emergency
 Impossible to distinguish between insurgent & civilian
o Withdrawal timeline
 Proposed withdrawal by 2011
 Conflicting ANSF timeline
• CP ground
o Ground
 One core affirmative – pullout, reduce bases
• As long as US wins, war cannot be won
• Troops are counter productive
o IED casualties
o Drone accidents
• Presence – options for reform
• Adv. Ground
o US pullout = buildup of Afghan force (US “crutch”)
o Tradeoff – better troops placed elsewhere
• Military presence
o Purpose – power (HEG), security, stability
o Opposite effect
 Superpower conflict - ie. Pakistan Invasion
• Superpower intervention
• *Russia has had Afghanistan before with no nuclear escalation*
 Not forward deploy troops = no conflict b/c no intervention
o Lithium deposits
 Afghanistan cannot mine it – illiteracy, no gov., etc.
• If mining was available, could replace opium profits = success
o Other things
  US counternarcotics aff
 Military presence consists of bases and troops
 UAV/drones present
 PMCs, mercenaries, etc. used (blackwater co.)
• Troop withdrawal = increase in PMC use
• Allows obama to stick to withdrawal timeline while keeping the war going with PMCs
o Take PMCs with?
• PMC use worse/better than US military
• 200-hamburger-guy-who-shoots-Iraqis card (lolz)
o Police presence
 PMCs topical under “police” label?
• Counter Narcotic Administration
• CIA
 Specify a type of police presence to decrease
o Neg “jist”
 Unstable infrastructure DA
 Opium economy DA
 Taliban DA
 Pakistani conflict DA
 “COIN” DA
• clear, hold, build
 US weak image = heg loss
 Timeframe CP
 Condition CP
• ANSF troop goal
 Kritik args – Pashtun people, capitalism (opium profit), security, etc.
 Superpower DA
 IEDs, UAV accidents, terrorism DAs