WORKSHEET 1 ON INTRODUCTION TO

Problem 4-4-----------Page 155

A well known soft drinks company decides to alter the formula of its oldest and most popu
be involved in such a decision?
Self Check Exercises: SC 4-1, SC 4-2Page 156

Problem 4-5
Which of the following are pairs of mutually exclusive events in the drawing of one card fr
a) A heart and a Queen
b) A club and a Red Card
c)An even number and a Spade
d)An Ace and an Even Number
Which of the following are pairs of mutually exclusive events in the rolling of two dice?
a) A total of 5 points and a 5 on one die
b) A total of 7 points and an even number of points on both dice
c) A total of 8 points and an odd number of points on booth dice
d)Aa total of 9 points and a 2 on one die
e) A total of 10 points and a 4 on on die.

Consider a stack of 9 cards, all spades numbered 2 through 10, and a die.Give a collectivel
possible outcomes of rolling the die and picking one card.How many elements are there in
Problem 4-7

Problem 4-8
Consider the stack of cards and the die discussed in problem 4-7. Give the probability for e
in the sum of the roll of the die and the value of the card drawn
2
3
8
9
12

Problem 4-9-------------------------------Practice Problem

Self-Check Exercises-- SC 4-3 and SC 4-4-------------------Page 162

Problem 4-11
a) Determine the probabilities of the following events in drawing a card from a standard d
a) A Seven
0.07692308
b) A Black Card
0.5
c) An Ace or a King
0.15384615
d) A black two or a black three
0.07692308
e) A red face card(king, queen or jack) 0.11538462
What type of probability estimates are these?
Problem 4-13

Below is a frequency distribution of annual sales commissions from a survey of 300 media
Annual Commission($)
Frequency
Based on this information wh
0-4999
15
a) between $ 5000 and $ 10
5000-9999
25
b) less than $ 15000
10000-14999
35
c) more than $ 20000
15000-19999
125
d) between $15,000 and $ 20
20000-24999
70
25000+
30
Total
300

Problem 4-15
The office manager of an insurance company has the following data on the functioning of t
Copier
Days
Days out
functioning of service
What is the probab
1
209
51
2
217
43
3
258
2
4
229
31
5
247
13
1160
140
Self-Check Exercises
SC 4-5 and SC 4-6---------------------------------------Page 169
Basic Concepts
Problem 4-17

Problem 4-18

Problem 4-20
An employee at Infotech must enter product information into the computer. The employee
keyboard to issue commands or fill out a bubble sheet and feed it directly into the old mai
P(Light Pen will fail)= 0.025
P(pass)
0.975
P( PC keyboard will fail)= 0.15
0.85
P(Light Pen and PC keyboard will fail)= 0.005
0.995
P(Mainframe will fail)= 0.25
0.75
Data can be entered into the PC only if both the light pen and keyboard are functioning.
a) What is the probability that the employee can use the PC to enter data?
b) What is the probability that either the PC or the mainframe fails?
0.42
Assume they both cannot fail at the same time.

NTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY

est and most popular product. How might probability theFind how many people like it or not. Then,
Then analyze

ing of one card from a deck of 52 cards?

ng of two dice?

.Give a collectively exhaustive list of all the

ments are there in the sample space?

he probability for each of the following totals

14

16

from a standard deck of 52 cards:

vey of 300 media salespeople

his information what is the probability that a media salesman makes a commission
n $ 5000 and $ 10000
0.08333
n $ 15000
0.25
an $ 20000
0.33333
n $15,000 and $ 20,000
0.41667

he functioning of the copiers in the office:

What is the probability that a copier is out of service?

0.107692

ter. The employee may use a light pen that transmits the information to the PC along with the
y into the old mainframe.Historically we know the following probabilities:

are functioning.
0.83

Probability of employee can use PC

0.17

le like it or not. Then, you'll rate it against competition

C along with the

WORKSHEET 2: ON INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY UNDER STATISTICAL INDEPE

Self-Check Exercises
Problem SC 4-7 & Problem SC 4-8------------------------Refer Page 177
Problem 4-23
What is the probability that a couple's second child will be:
(a) A boy, given that their first child was a girl?
(b)A girl, given that their first child was a boy?

0.5
0.5

Problem 4-25
A bag contains 32 marbles: 4 are red, 9 are black, 12 are blue, 6 are yellow and 1 is purple
Marbles are drawn one at a time with replacement. What is the probability that:
(a)The second marble is yellow given that the first one was yellow?
(b) The second marble is yellow given that the first one was red?
( c) The third marble is purple given that both the first and second were purple?

Problem 4-27
The Health Department routinely conducts 2 independent inspections of each restaurant,
passes only 2 % of restaurants that actually do have health code violations. Inspector B is
(a) Inspector A passes a restaurant , given that Inspector B has found a violation
(b) Inspector B passes a restaurant with violation, given that Inspector A passes i
( c) A restaurant with a violation is passed by the Health Department?

Problem 4-28
The 4 Floodgates of a small Hydroelectric Dam fail and are repaired independently of each
(a) If flood gate 1 is out of order, what is the probability that floodgates 2 & 3 are out of o
(b)During a Tour of the Dam, you are told that the chances of all 4 floodgates being out of

Problem 4-30
A grocery store is reviewing its restocking policies and has analyzed the number of half-ga
Number Sold
0-19
20-39
40-59
60-79
80-99
100 or more

Morning
3
3
12
4
5
3
30

Afternoon
8
4
6
9
3
0
30

Evening
2
3
4
9
6
6
30

Problem 4-31
Bill has just installed 4 billboards on a highway outside of town.He knows from experience

chosen motorist.
The probability of the first billboard being noticed by a motorist is 0.75
The probability of the second billboard being noticed by a motorist is 0.82
The probability of the third billboard being noticed by a motorist is 0.87
The probability of the fourth billboard being noticed is 0.90
Assume that the event that a motorist notices any particular billboard is independent of w
What is the probability that
(a) All 4 billboards will be noticed by a randomnly chosen motorist?
(b) The first and fourth, but not the second and third billboards will be noticed?
( c) Exactly one of the billboards will be noticed?
(d) None of the Billboards will be noticed?
(e) The third and fourth billboards will not be noticed?

EXT1-MISC PROBLEM
A survey of magazine subscribers showed that 45.8% rented a car during the past 12 mon
for personal reasons and 30% rented a car during the past 12 months for both business an
a) What is the probability tht a subscriber rented a car during the past 12 months for busi
b) What is the probability that a subscriber did not rent a car during the past 12 months fo

ATISTICAL INDEPENDENCE & MISC PROBLEMS

ow and 1 is purple

12

32

0.1875
0.1875
0.03125

each restaurant, with the restaurant passing only if both inspectors pass it. Inspector A is very ex
ons. Inspector B is less experienced and passes 7% of restaurants with violations. What is the proba
2%
A
7%
Pass (with violation
2%
0.1400%

pendently of each other. From experience it is known that each floodgate is out of order 4 % of the
2 & 3 are out of order?
0.0016
i.e 4% of 2 and 4% of 3
gates being out of order are less than 1 in 5,000,000. Is this statement true? 0.00000256

number of half-gallon containers of orange juice sold each day for the past month. The Data are gi

(a) What is the probability that on a randomnly selected day the number of carto
in the evening is between 80 and 99?
0.2
(b)What is the probability that 39 or fewer cartons were sold during a randomnly
( c) What is the probability that either 0-19 or 100 or mmore cartons were sold in
morning?

0.48155

0.675

0.0136

s from experience the probabilities that each will be noticed by a randomnly

0.000585

Noticed Not noticed

0.75
0.25 A
0.82
0.18 B
0.87
0.13 C
0.9
0.1 D
independent of whether or not he notices the others.
0.48155
0.0158
0.0136
0.013

g the past 12 months for business reasons, 54% rented a car during the past 12 months
r both business and personal reasons
2 months for business or personal reasons?
0.69
past 12 months for either business or personal reasons?
0.31

spector A is very experienced, and hence

s. What is the probability that:
B
7%

of order 4 % of the time.

0

nth. The Data are given below:-

he number of cartons of orange juice sold

during a randomnly selected afternoo

cartons were sold in a randomnly selected
0.2

0.013

0.4

45.80%
54%
30%
business personal both

WORKSHEET 3: ON INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY UNDER STA

Self-Check Exercises
Problem SC 4-9 & Problem SC 4-10------------------------Refer Page 186

Problem 4-32
2 events A and B are statistically dependent. If P(A)=0.39, P(B)= 0.21 & P(A or B)= 0.47, fi
(a) Neither A nor B will occur
0.53
(b)Both A and B will occur
0.13
( C) B will occur given that A has occurred 0.3333333333 P(AB)/P(A)
(d) A will occur given that B has occurred
0.619047619

Problem 4-35
At a soup kitchen, a social worker gathers the following data. Of those visiting the kitchen
alcoholics. What is the probability that a random male visitor to the kitchen is an alcoholic

Problem 4-36
During a study of auto accidents, the Highway Safety Council found that 60% of all acciden
night and are alcohol related.
(a) What is the probability that an accident was alcohol related, given that it occurred at n
(b)What is the probability that an accident occurred at night, given that it was alcohol rela

Problem 4-37
If a Hurricane forms in the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico, there is a 76% chance that it
gathered over the past 50 years, it has been determined that the probability of a hurrican
(a) What is the probability that a hurricane will occur in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and str
(b) If a hurricane in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico is seeded, its possibility of striking Florida's
If it is decided to seed any hurricane in the eastern gulf, what is the new value for the prob
0.5525
Problem 4-39
A Company is considering upgrading its computer system and the major portion of the upg
an Engineer for an evaluation of the operating system. Assume the probability of a favour
If the probability the Company will upgrade its system given a favorable evaluation is 0.8
will upgrade and receive a favorable evaluation?
Problem 4-40: Home Work Practice Problem

Problem 4-42
NHB has been entrusted with the responsibility of sending good quality mangoes to overse
10,000 boxes of mangoes from Malihabad and Hyderabad for exports. The inspection of bo
Number of Boxes with
No: of Boxes Damaged fruit Over-ripe fruit
Malihabad
6000
200
840
Hyderabad
4000
365
295
10000
565
1135

Problem 4-43 : Home Work Practice Problem

EXT-1
In a Survey of MBA students, the following data were obtained on students first reason for application
matriculated.
Full Time
Part Time

School Cost
School Quality or Convenience
421
393
400
593
821
986

Other
76
46
122

PROBABILITY UNDER STATISTICAL DEPENDENCE

0.21 & P(A or B)= 0.47, find the probability that

0.39

0.21

0.47

As P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P (AB)

P(AB) = P(A) +P(B) - P(A or B)

those visiting the kitchen, 59% are men, 32% are alcoholics, and 21% are male
he kitchen is an alcoholic? P(male alcohol/men)
0.355932

nd that 60% of all accidents occur at night, 52% are alcohol related and 37% occur at

iven that it occurred at night?

en that it was alcohol related?

0.616667
0.711538

re is a 76% chance that it will strike the western coast of Florida. From the d
probability of a hurricane's occurring in this area in any given year is 0.85
rn Gulf of Mexico and strike Florida this year?
0.646
ibility of striking Florida's west coast is reduced by one-f
0.57
he new value for the probability in part (a)
0.4845

0.76
0.85

0.85

e major portion of the upgrade is a new operating system. The Company has asked
he probability of a favourable evaluation is 0.65.
0.5525 Ans
vorable evaluation is 0.85 what is the probability that the Company

quality mangoes to overseas. For this purpose an inspection is conducted on

orts. The inspection of boxes gave the following information:
a) What are the chances that a selected box will contain damaged or overripe fru
b) A randomnly selected box contains overripe fruit, what is the probability that
come from Hyderabad?
0.0295 0.259912
(Note: Damaged fruit and overripe are mutually exclusive events)

s first reason for application to the school in which they

Totals
890
1039
1929

a) Develop a Joint Probability Table for these Data?

b)Use the marginal probabilities of school quality,school cost
or convenience and other to comment on the most important
reason for choosing a school
c)If a student goes full time what is the probability that school quality
is the first reason for choosing a schoo 0.47303
d)If a student goes part time what is the probability that school
quality is the first reason for choosing a school?
e)Are the events that a student is full time and the student lists
quality as the first reason for applying independent events.
Justify your answer?

P(Florida/gulf)

P(Upgrade/evaluation)

aged or overripe fruit?

the probability that it has

Damaged/over ripe

1700

0.17

chool cost
important
that school quality

y that school
0.38499
student lists
t events.

WORKSHEET ON REVISING PRIOR ESTIMATES OF PROBABILITIES: BAYES

Refer SELF- CHECK EXERCISES---------------PROBLEMS SC 4-11 & SC 4-12

Problem 4-45
Martin Coleman,credit manager for Beck's, knows that the company uses 3 methods to enc
collection records, he learns that 70% of the accounts are called on personally, 20% are ph
collecting an overdue amount from an account with the 3 methods are 0.75, 0.60 and 0.65
from a past due account. What is the probability that this account
a) Was called on personally?
b) Received a phone call?
c)Received a Letter?

Problem 4-47
EconOcon is planning a company picnic. The only thing that will cancel the picnic is a thun
conditions with probability 0.2 , moist conditions with probability 0.45, and wet conditions
thunderstorm given dry conditions is 0.3, given moist conditions is 0.6 and given wet cond
If we know the picnic was indeed cancelled, what is the probability moist conditions were

Problem 4-48

An independent research group has been studying the chances that an accident at a nucle
The group considers that the only possible types of accidents at a reactor are fire, mechan
accidents never occur together. It has performed studies that indicate that if there were a
If there were a mechanical error, a radiation leak would occur 50% of the time and if there
10% of the time. Its studies have also shown that:A fire and a radiation leak occuring together is 0.0010
A mechanical failure and a radiation leak occuring together is 0.0015
A Human Error and a Radiation Leak occuring together is 0.0012
a) What are the respective probabilties of a fire, mechanical failure and human error?
b)What are the respective probabilities that a radiation leak was caused by a fire, mechan
c)What is the probability of a radiation leak?

PROBABILITIES: BAYES THEOREM

uses 3 methods to encourage collection of delinquent accounts. From past

personally, 20% are phoned and 10% are sent a letter. The probabilities of
re 0.75, 0.60 and 0.65 respectively. Mr. Coleman has just received payment

el the picnic is a thunderstorm. The Weather Service has predicted dry

45, and wet conditions with probability 0.35. If the probability of a
.6 and given wet conditions is 0.8 what is the probability of a thunderstorm?
moist conditions were in effect?

an accident at a nuclear power plant will result in a radiation leakage.

actor are fire, mechanical failure, and human error and that 2 or more
te that if there were a fire, a radiation leak would occur 20% of the time.
f the time and if there were a human error a radiation leak would occur

and human error?

used by a fire, mechanical failure and human error?