RICS Oceania Best Research Paper 2009

Supported by the RICS Land Professional Group

THE POWER OF ROOFTOPS IN A CARBON NEUTRAL FUTURE

Cathryn Hamilton
PhD Scholar
University of South Australia
School of Natural and Built Environments
North Terrace, Adelaide
Cathryn.Hamilton@postgrads.unisa.edu.au

ABSTRACT
Climate change is forcing every level of government to look for ways to adapt to
impacts and mitigate its effects. Top down policy responses at Federal and State level
include targets for providing electricity from renewable energy sources. Using two local
government areas as case studies, the City of Playford in South Australia and
Manningham City Council in Victoria, this paper explores the potential solar energy
resources on building rooftops and associated carbon reductions and explores the
influence of the decade of dwelling construction on the potential to maximise the solar
resource. The findings indicate huge potential to capture solar energy on rooftops,
however the differences in the average area of north facing roof per dwelling by decade
shows that the 1950s and 1960s have lower potentials than later decades although the
complexity of rooftops has changed over time. More attention should focus on the
characteristics of dwellings that affect the potential for capturing solar energy resources
on rooftops, such as the area and number of north facing roof facets. These findings
are significant for any community making the transition to carbon neutrality.
Key Words: renewable energy, solar resource assessment, distributed generation,
rooftop solar resource
Word Count: 1714 (excludes Abstract, Key Words, Tables, Figures and
References)
INTRODUCTION
All levels of government in Australia are making commitments to reduce greenhouse
gas (carbon) emissions in an effort to mitigate the impacts of human-induced climate
change. Targets to reduce carbon emissions are driving the review of available
renewable energy sources at all levels (Garnaut 2008; Department of Climate Change
2008). The expansion of the mandatory renewable energy target from 2% in 2010 to
20% by 2020 (COAG, 2009) will increase the pressure on local communities to invest
in low carbon or carbon neutral renewable energy sources. This paper discusses the
potential for solar energy to be captured on rooftops across local urban areas and the
associated carbon emissions reduction. It also examines the influence of the decade of
construction of dwellings on the potential for capturing solar energy.
Two metropolitan local government areas (LGAs) in Australia are used as case studies
- the City of Playford (Playford) in South Australia and Manningham City Council
(Manningham) in Victoria. Playford is located 30 km north of the Adelaide Central
Business District (CBD). It has a population of approximately 70,000 people (ABS
Submission to RICS Annual Award for Best Research Paper 2009

C. Hamilton

2007a), an area of 346 sq km and has varied land uses including residential,
commercial, industrial, and agricultural/horticultural. Playford receives a relatively high
level of insolation - an annual mean daily exposure of 17.7 MJ/sq m (flat surface) (BOM
2007). Manningham is located 12 km east of Melbourne CBD has a population of
approximately 110,000 people (ABS 2007b). Its area is 114 sq km with mainly
residential and commercial land use. Manningham has reasonable levels of insolation
with an annual mean daily solar exposure of 15.1 MJ/sq m (flat surface) (BOM 2008).

SOLAR ENERGY RESOURCE ASSESSMENT OF ROOFTOPS

The methodology adopted for the assessment of solar energy resources in this study
builds on an approach developed in the United Kingdom (UK) for renewable energy
resource assessments by Grant and Kellett (2002) The Grant and Kellett (2002)
approach states that, regardless of the energy source or the type of technology needed
to harness it, the renewable energy potential can be analysed according to the
following criteria:

The Resource Base the total quantity of energy or power which physically
exists

The Resource defined as that part of the resource base which could be
utilised under present or future economic circumstances, using existing or
modified currently available technology

The Reserve that part of the resource which has been proven to exist and
which could be exploited cost effectively under prevailing economic
circumstances. The size of the Reserve is determined by the prevailing local
market price for energy.

This method was enhanced by the use of Geographic Information System (GIS)
software as described by Ghosh and Vale (2006). This methodology and the results for
Playford are described in detail in Hamilton (2008) while the results for Manningham
are detailed in Moore, Hamilton, Moloney and Bates (2008).
The solar energy resource base (SERB) for each LGA was calculated using the total
land area for each LGA. A sample of residential dwellings was selected from each
decade from the stock of residential dwellings within each LGA based on the year of
build recorded in the valuation database. The north facing roof (NFR) facets for each
sample were digitised using GIS and the areas aggregated, averaged and extrapolated
across the dwellings for each decade in the LGA. In calculating the solar resource, both
solar photovoltaic (SPV) and solar hot water (SHW) systems were considered. An
initial estimate of energy was made from one SHW system and a 1kW SPV system
being placed on each available residential dwelling roof with sufficient NFR area while
an additional estimate factored in SPV panels on the remaining NFR area. The solar
reserve reported in this study comprised the energy that could be produced at or below
the cost of retail electricity.

RESULTS
This section presents the results of the solar energy resource assessment for Playford
and Manningham by decade and presents the potential for energy reduction and
carbon emissions reduction across the residential sectors of each LGA.

C. Hamilton

Playford Solar Energy Resource Assessment

The Solar Energy Resource Base (SERB) for the entire Playford LGA was calculated to
be 2,235.3 PJ/yr. Table 1 summarises the assessment for Playford. Almost 80.7% of
residential dwellings had NFR facets totalling 1.35 sq km providing a solar resource of
1.37 PJ/yr while the solar reserve, comprising SHW systems, was estimated to be 0.6
PJ/yr. Of interest in this assessment is the differences noted in the average area of
NFR by decade of build. While approximately 40% of dwellings were constructed in the
1960s they contributed only 26% to the total NFR area. Figures 1 and 2 show aerial
ortho-photography of rooftops for the 1960s and the 1990s respectively (supplied by
AEROmetrex Pty Ltd, 2006 via City of Playford). It is clear that the housing and roof
style and house size relative to block size has changed considerably between these
decades. The average number of NFR facets per dwellings has increased over time
(see Table 1).
Ins Table 1
Ins Figures 1 and 2
Manningham Solar Energy Resource Assessment
The SERB for the entire Manningham area was calculated to be 649.9 PJ/yr. Table 2
summarises the solar resource assessment for Manningham. Approximately 88% of
the dwellings across Manningham had NFR facets providing a solar resource of 2.98
PJ/yr and a reserve of 0.93 PJ/yr. Table 2 also summarises the average area of NFR
facets for dwellings in Manningham by decade. This also shows an increase in NFR
peaking in the 1980s and 1990s. Data about the average number of NFR facets per
dwelling for each decade was not available at the time of writing.
Ins Table 2
Comparison of Solar Energy Resource with Energy Demand and GHG emissions
In a previous paper, see Hamilton, Kellett and Yuan (2008), the energy baselines and
GHG (carbon) emissions in 2006 for both Playford and Manningham were estimated.
Comparing the average energy use with the potential solar resource for sectors in
Playford and Manningham (see Table 3) shows that solar energy has the potential to
provide 16% and 24% of the total average energy demand for Playford and
Manningham, respectively. In both cases around 90% of this resource is being
provided by the residential sector. Table 4 shows that carbon emissions can be
reduced by 35% for Playford and 70% for Manningham with again about 90% of this
potential reduction coming from rooftops.
Ins Table 3
Ins Table 4
DISCUSSION
From the analysis undertaken in this study a number of points can be highlighted.
Firstly the solar energy resource readily available on NFR facets of the residential
sector within both Playford and Manningham is significant in terms of the demand for
energy, although not all is currently cost-effective. As the solar resource exceeds the
energy use for the residential sector in both cases, the potential exists to feed
electricity back into the grid to offset uses by other sectors. Secondly, the resource
makes a significant contribution to carbon reduction and the overall carbon footprint of
the LGA. Thirdly, there are economic and social benefits resulting from feed-in tariffs
and the potential for local employment in installing solar energy technology. Fourthly,
while there is opportunity to take advantage of distributed generation with small scale
solar particularly in South Australia with the very favourable insolation regime, there are
3

C. Hamilton

significant differences in NFR area between decades in each LGA. Dwellings

constructed in the 1950s and 1960s in both LGAs had less average area of NFR than
the dwellings constructed in more recent decades, while for Playford, 22% of those
constructed in the 1960s had insufficient NFR to accommodate both SHW and SPV
systems. Having established that sufficient solar energy resources exist on rooftops
and that carbon reductions will follow if this is exploited, the limiting factor is then the
rooftop design which this study has shown to be related to the decade of build.
The findings of this study are supported by other studies. Forster (2007) states that the
housing stock in each major city is a mixture of age, style, building materials, tenure
and cost and that this historical legacy was inherited in particular from periods of rapid
growth and strong demand for new housing particularly from the 1950s and 1960s. A
summary of housing through the years (Anon 2008) identified trends such as using
bricks rather than wood from the 1960s onwards, modest homes on large allotments
with widespread use of brick veneer in the 1970s, the increasing size of homes with
additional family areas in the 1980s, the increasing diversity in housing and an
increasing popularity of opulent and two storey dwellings in the 1990s, while the 2000s
has seen a greater focus on energy efficiency and orientation on smaller allotments
with overall size of homes apparently decreasing. Forster observed that the 1990s
were a watershed decade when the traditional low-density nature of new residential
development began to change (Forster 2007). What has not been researched in depth
however is the effect of these changes on the ease of installing solar panels. One
aspect of these changes may be the number of NFR facets per dwelling. This
increasing complexity of roof area together with the decreasing size of houses being
observed by Forster (2007) warrants further investigation.

CONCLUSIONS
This paper has presented some aspects of a study assessing the potential solar energy
resource which could be harnessed from the north facing roof (NFR) facets of existing
buildings within two local government areas. The results of the assessment show that
significant energy could potentially be produced from solar resources falling on the
residential dwellings within each LGA but that only a portion of this resource is currently
cost-effective. The potential for significant reductions in carbon emissions is also
possible if the full resource is realised. The examination of the dwellings by decade of
build has revealed some significant differences. The dwellings constructed in the 1950s
and 1960s in both cases had less NFR area than the dwellings constructed in more
recent decades. While this shows that the potential for capturing solar energy from
NFR has increased in recent decades a study of the complexity of roof style is
recommended. The author considers that the method used to generate the findings
discussed in this study is applicable to any local government area given sufficient
information.

C. Hamilton

Table 1. Solar resource of NFR by decade for residential sector in Playford

Decade of
Build

No. of
dwellings

1950-1959
1960-1969
1970-1979
1980-1989
1990-1999
2000-2007
Total

Solar
energy
Resource
Total SPV
MJ/yr

Solar
Resource
for SHW

No. of
dwellings
in sample
with NFR
(percentage
of sample)

Area NFR
across
Playford
sq m
(percentage
of Area
NFR)

Average
Area of NFR
per
dwelling
assessed
sq m

Average
Number
of NFR
facets
per
dwelling
assessed

7
(58%)
182
(78%)
62
(79%)
74
(88%)
41
(89%)
20
(80%)
386
(80.7%)

18,724
(1.4%)
356,177
(26.4%)
204,973
(15.2%)
262,794
(19.5%)
275,658
(20.5%)
228,521
(17.0%)
1,346,847
(100%)

53

1.29

13,897,798

10,204,437

41

1.22

248,381,225

195,464,933

69

1.42

77,064,460

118,053,843

76

1.88

79,520,630

152,985,774

65

2.37

107,504,853

158,438,334

88

3.00

68,989,223

133,047,153

595,358,189

768,194,474

604
(2.2%)
11,080
(40.5%)
3,732
(13.6%)
3,923
(14.3%)
4,776
(17.4%)
3,259
(11.9%)
27,374
(100%)

46.4

MJ/yr

Table 2: Solar resource of NFR by decade for residential sector in Manningham

Decade of
Build

1950-1959
1960-1969
1970-1979
1980-1989
1990-1999
2000-2007
Total

No. of
dwelling
s

1,022
(2.4%)
12,339
(29.3%)
9,759
(23.2%)
9,220
(21.9%)
5,291
(12.6%)
4,420
(10.5%)
42,051
(100%)

No. of
dwellings in
sample with
NFR
(percentage
of sample)

Area NFR
across
Manningham
sq m
(percentage of
total)

69
(85.2%)
104
(86.7%)
221
(80.7%)
245
(89.7%)
180
(96.3%)
240
(94.5%)
1059
(88%)

50792.2
(1.4%)
767922.4
(21.7%)
843713.3
(23.8%)
900488.7
(25.4%)
562401.3
(15.9%)
420354.4
(11.9%)
3545672.3
(100%)

MJ per year

Solar
energy
Resource
Total SPV
MJ per year

59

21,621,814

28,762,434

72

268,829,744

440,510,275

107

214,406,011

491,868,694

109

202,564,138

527,526,095

110

114,378,821

330,648,911

101

93,284,614

246,377,473

96

915,085,140

2,065,693,803

Average
area of
NFR per
dwelling
with NFR
sq m

Solar
Resource
for SHW

C. Hamilton

Table 3. Summary of energy demand and solar energy resources

Estimated
Estimated solar Average energy
solar energy
used in
energy
resource in
Manningham in
resource in
Manningham
2006*
Playford
PJ per year
PJ per year
PJ per year
1.37
3.39
2.98
Residential
(88%)
(91%)
0.57
0.05
1.09
0.13
Commercial*
(5%)
(4%)
4.59
0.14
2.7
0.01
Industrial*
(15%)
(0.3%)
3.38
na
6.34
na
Transport **
9.78
1.56
13.52
3.29
Total
(100%)
(100%)
*Source: Hamilton et al. (2008); ** includes Transport and Storage Industry; na = not assessed
Sector

Average energy
used in
Playford in
2006*
PJ per year
1.24

Table 4. Summary of average carbon emissions and potential carbon reductions

Estimated
Average
Potential
carbon
carbon
carbon
reduction in
emissions in
reduction in
Manningham
Manningham
Playford
(solar)
in 2006*
(solar)
Mt CO2-e per
Mt CO2-e per
Mt CO2-e per
year
year
year
0.33
0.47
1.03
Residential
(89%)
(93%)
0.11
0.01
0.23
0.03
Commercial*
0.43
0.03
0.37
<0.01
Industrial*
0.25
na
0.41
na
Transport **
0.04
na
0.05
na
Waste*
1.05
0.37
1.53
1.07
Total
(100%)
(100%)
*Source: Hamilton et al. (2008); ** includes Transport and Storage Industry; na = not applicable
Sector

Average
carbon
emissions in
Playford in
2006*
Mt CO2-e per
year
0.22

Fig 1. Playford dwellings in 1960s

Fig 2. Playford dwellings in 1990s

(Source: AEROmetrex Pty Ltd, 2006 provided by City

of Playford)

(Source: AEROmetrex Pty Ltd, 2006 provided by City

of Playford)

C. Hamilton

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
PhD research scholarship is funded by the Australian Research Council Linkage Project Carbon Neutral Communities Making the Transition. This project is being undertaken in
conjunction with RMIT University in Melbourne and various industry partners including local
government in both South Australia and Victoria.

REFERENCES
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ducttype=QuickStats&areacode=LGA45680&action=401&documenttype=Main%20Fea
tures&collection=Census&textversion=false&breadcrumb=LPD&period=2006&javascrip
t=true&navmapdisplayed=true&
ABS (2007b) 2006 Census Quickstats: Manningham (C) (Local Government Area).
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http://www.censusdata.abs.gov.au/ABSNavigation/prenav/ViewData?subaction=1&producttype=QuickStats&areacode=LGA24210&action=401&documenttype=Main%
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vascript=true&navmapdisplayed=true&
Anon (2008) 75 Years of housing Australians, Residential Developer Magazine,
January, pp40-46, The Residential Development Council, Sydney
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2007.
BOM (2008) Climate statistics for Australian locations Bundoora (LaTrobe
University). Source: URL
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August 2008.
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Adelaide.

rics.org.au

C. Hamilton

Grant J. and Kellett J (2002) Renewable Energy Assessment for Conisbrough and
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(CADRE) Project. Resources Research Unit, School of Environment and Development,
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University and University of South Australia. Source: URL
http://mams.rmit.edu.au/djp8scpzgy82.pdf accessed 20 August 2008.
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Assessment for Manningham City Council Overview Report. Prepared for the Carbon
Neutral Communities Making the Transition project, RMIT University, Melbourne
Source: URL http://mams.rmit.edu.au/lf9zbqrc6v6cz.pdf accessed 12 June 2009

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