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Harnessing hydropower: Literature Review

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HARNESSING
HYDROPOWER:
Literature Review

D. Lumbroso, A. Hurford, J.
Winpenny and S. Wade
August 2014

This report has been produced for Evidence on Demand with the assistance of the UK
Department for International Development (DFID) contracted through the Climate,
Environment, Infrastructure and Livelihoods Professional Evidence and Applied Knowledge
Services (CEIL PEAKS) programme, jointly managed by DAI (which incorporates HTSPE
Limited) and IMC Worldwide Limited.
The views expressed in the report are entirely those of the author and do not necessarily
represent DFIDs own views or policies, or those of Evidence on Demand. Comments and
discussion on items related to content and opinion should be addressed to the author, via
enquiries@evidenceondemand.org
Your feedback helps us ensure the quality and usefulness of all knowledge products. Please
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this material useful; in what ways it has helped build your knowledge base and informed your
work; or how it could be improved.
DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.12774/eod_cr.august2014.lumbrosoetal1
First published November 2014
CROWN COPYRIGHT

Contents
Executive Summary ...................................................................................................vi
Glossary of terms .......................................................................................................ix
SECTION 1 ................................................................................................................ 1
Introduction ................................................................................................................ 1
1.1 Objectives ............................................................................................................ 1
1.2 Background to renewable sources of energy ....................................................... 2
1.3 Background to hydropower schemes ................................................................... 3
1.3.1 The principles of hydropower ............................................................................ 3
1.3.2 Types of hydropower plants .............................................................................. 4
1.3.3 Construction, operation and maintenance costs of hydropower schemes ......... 5
1.4 International hydropower potential ....................................................................... 7
1.5 Background to the impacts of climate change on hydropower ............................. 8
1.6 Background to the status of hydropower in DFIDs priority countries ................... 9
1.7 The water energy food security nexus .......................................................... 12
1.7.1 Background ..................................................................................................... 12
1.7.2 Guiding principles of the water energy food security nexus ...................... 12
SECTION 2 .............................................................................................................. 14
Measures of hydropower performance ..................................................................... 14
2.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 14
2.2 Power generation ............................................................................................... 14
2.3 Economic impacts .............................................................................................. 19
2.4 Social and environmental impacts ...................................................................... 20
2.4.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 20
2.4.2 Social impacts ................................................................................................. 21
2.4.3 Environmental impacts .................................................................................... 22
2.5 Water use ........................................................................................................... 25
2.6 Greenhouse gas emissions ................................................................................ 26
SECTION 3 .............................................................................................................. 29
Factors affecting hydropower performance .............................................................. 29
3.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 29
3.2 Funding mechanisms ......................................................................................... 29
3.2.1 Public and private: Concepts and definitions ................................................... 29
3.2.2 Ownership ....................................................................................................... 30

3.2.3 Finance ........................................................................................................... 30

3.2.4 The nature and extent of private sector involvement in hydropower projects .. 30
3.2.5 Reasons for publicly funding hydropower projects .......................................... 31
3.2.6 The performance of publically and privately funded hydropower projects ....... 31
3.2.7 Trends in the funding and development of hydropower projects ..................... 32
3.3 Physical and environmental factors .................................................................... 34
3.3.1 Hydrology ........................................................................................................ 34
3.3.2 Sedimentation ................................................................................................. 36
3.3.3 Climate variability ............................................................................................ 38
3.4 Climate change .................................................................................................. 39
3.5 Availability of hydrological data .......................................................................... 45
3.6 Operation and maintenance ............................................................................... 46
3.7 Multi-purpose and single purpose schemes ....................................................... 47
SECTION 4 .............................................................................................................. 48
Enhancing the performance of hydropower .............................................................. 48
4.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 48
4.2 Strengthening and improving the planning process at a catchment level ........... 48
4.3 Rehabilitation of existing hydropower infrastructure ........................................... 49
4.4 Enhancing the operation of existing hydropower infrastructure .......................... 50
4.4.1 The use of flow forecasting to increase electricity generation ......................... 50
4.4.2 Mitigating social and environmental impacts ................................................... 50
4.5 Sediment management ...................................................................................... 51
4.6 Recent innovations in hydropower technology ................................................... 53
4.6.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 53
4.6.2 Variable-speed turbines .................................................................................. 53
4.6.3 Fish-friendly turbines ....................................................................................... 54
4.6.4 Improvements in materials .............................................................................. 54
4.6.5 Tunnelling technology ..................................................................................... 54
4.6.6 Use of small scale hydropower........................................................................ 54
4.7 Utilisation of greenhouse gas emissions from hydropower reservoirs ................ 55
4.8 Improved stakeholder engagement and local benefit sharing ............................ 55
SECTION 5 .............................................................................................................. 57
Hydropower and the water - energy - food security nexus ....................................... 57
5.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 57
5.2 A comparison of hydropower with other power generation technologies............ 59

ii

5.2.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 59

5.2.2 Levelised costs of power generation ............................................................... 60
5.2.3 Water use ........................................................................................................ 61
5.2.4 Greenhouse gas emissions ............................................................................. 63
5.2.5 The challenges of comparing different power generation technologies ........... 64
5.3 Trade off analysis techniques used to assess the position of hydropower in the
water energy food nexus .................................................................................... 64
5.3.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 64
5.3.2 Background to some trade off techniques ....................................................... 65
SECTION 6 .............................................................................................................. 69
Criteria used for the selection of the case studies .................................................... 69
SECTION 7 .............................................................................................................. 71
Conclusions and research gaps ............................................................................... 71
7.1 Conclusions ........................................................................................................ 71
7.2 Research gaps ................................................................................................... 73
References ............................................................................................................... 76
List of Boxes
Box 1 The impacts of the 1991-1992 drought on hydropower generation in Zambia and
Zimbabwe ........................................................................................................................... 17
Box 2 Shortfall in predicted power generation at Victoria hydropower scheme in Sri Lanka 19
Box 3 Social impacts of Nangbeto hydropower scheme, Togo ............................................ 22
Box 4 Contrasting environmental impacts of two large hydropower projects ....................... 23
Box 5 Southern African Power Pools (SAPP) environmental and social impact assessment
guidelines for hydropower projects ...................................................................................... 24
Box 6 International Hydropower Associations (IHA) hydropower sustainability assessment
protocol ............................................................................................................................... 24
Box 7 The impacts of the Aswan Dam in Egypt on the geomorphology of the River Nile
downstream ........................................................................................................................ 38
Box 8 The impacts of rehabilitation on power generation for the Trushuli-Devighat
hydropower scheme in Nepal .............................................................................................. 50
Box 9 Use of payment for ecosystems services to reduce sedimentation in hydropower dams
........................................................................................................................................... 53

List of Figures
Figure 1 Estimated renewable energy share of global final energy consumption in 2012 ...... 3
Figure 2 Estimated renewable energy share of global electricity production at the end of
2013...................................................................................................................................... 3
Figure 3 Diagram illustrating the difference between storage and run of river hydropower
schemes ............................................................................................................................... 5
Figure 4 Diagram showing the terms typically used to describe the available storage of a
dam....................................................................................................................................... 6
Figure 5 Diagram illustrating the principles of a pumped storage hydropower scheme.......... 6
Figure 6 The global consumption of hydroelectricity since 1965 ............................................ 8
iii

Figure 7 Example of the change in flow as a result of a river catchments response to climate
change .................................................................................................................................. 9
Figure 8 8: The water energy food nexus ...................................................................... 13
Figure 9 Project averages for actual versus planned hydropower generation ...................... 15
Figure 10 Actual versus planned hydropower generation years from the start of commercial
operations ........................................................................................................................... 16
Figure 11 Tarbela and Kariba Dams ................................................................................... 16
Figure 12 Actual and forecast installed capacity and power generation for Kariba and
Tarbela ............................................................................................................................... 17
Figure 13 Number of kWh generated per MW of installed capacity for large hydropower
schemes in India between 1993 and 2012 .......................................................................... 18
Figure 14 Overview of the environmental impacts of hydropower schemes ........................ 22
Figure 15 Summary of life cycle greenhouse gas emissions from hydropower .................... 27
Figure 16 Examples of Impacts of future changes in precipitation and temperature on
changes in river flows in the Zambezi River catchment ....................................................... 34
Figure 17 Impacts of two future change scenario on monthly flows at the Batoka Gorge
hydropower site on the Zambezi ......................................................................................... 35
Figure 18 Impacts of two future change scenario on predicted mean monthly power
generation at the Batoka Gorge hydropower site on the Zambezi ...................................... 36
Figure 19 Estimated global sediment loads ......................................................................... 37
Figure 20 Flow chart of climate change effects on hydropower performance ...................... 40
Figure 21 The effect of climate change on different aspects of hydropower performance ... 41
Figure 22 Application of a simple framework to assess the impacts of climate change on
hydropower performance in the Mekong River catchment ................................................... 42
Figure 23 Variation of the net present value of proposed Batoka Gorge hydropower project
on the Zambezi with changes to key project parameter and climate change ....................... 44
Figure 24 Potential impacts of climate change on hydropower in the Democratic Republic of
the Congo and Mozambique ............................................................................................... 44
Figure 25 The vicious circle of the impacts of climate change reducing electricity production
in countries reliant on hydropower....................................................................................... 45
Figure 26 Number of operational rainfall stations in the Zambezi River catchment upstream
of Tete in Mozambique........................................................................................................ 46
Figure 27 Illustration of the impacts of an upgrade versus a life extension on energy
production of a hydropower scheme ................................................................................... 49
Figure 28 Sediment management techniques for hydropower schemes ............................. 51
Figure 29 A framework for assessing hydropower performance in the context of the water
energy food nexus ........................................................................................................... 58
Figure 30 An example of some of the key linkages between hydropower performance, water
resources, energy and food systems................................................................................... 58
Figure 31 Schematic diagram of electricity supply and demand options .............................. 60
Figure 32 Global levelised costs of power generation for the first quarter of 2013 for a range
of power generation techniques .......................................................................................... 61
Figure 33 The green and blue water footprint in relation to the water balance of a catchment
area .................................................................................................................................... 62
Figure 34 Energy use for irrigated agriculture based on studies carried out in various
countries ............................................................................................................................. 63
Figure 35 Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions from hydropower schemes compared with
other forms of electricity generation systems ...................................................................... 64

List of Tables
Table 1 Classification of hydropower schemes...................................................................... 5
Table 2 World hydropower in operation, under construction and planned ............................. 7
Table 3 The status of hydropower in DFIDs priority countries............................................. 11

iv

Table 4 Environmental and social impacts of different types of hydropower scheme .......... 21
Table 5 Blue water footprint for selected hydropower schemes in DFID priority countries ... 26
Table 6Restrictions on hydropower projects under the Kyoto Protocol Clean Development
Mechanism (CDM) .............................................................................................................. 28
Table 7 Trends in the development of hydropower projects ................................................ 33
Table 8 The impact of droughts on hydropower generation in East Africa ........................... 39
Table 9 Cost of installing additional generating capacity as a result of droughts affecting
hydropower generation in East Africa.................................................................................. 39
Table 10 Blue water footprint for the production of electricity from various sources of energy
........................................................................................................................................... 62
Table 11 The conceptual framework for the TWO analysis ................................................. 67
Table 12 Examples of variables used to assess the trade-offs between hydropower, irrigated
agriculture, municipal water supply and the environment .................................................... 67
Table 13 Background to the hydropower schemes operating in each of the selected case
study country ...................................................................................................................... 70

Executive Summary
The Harnessing Hydropower study aims to provide an analysis of the historical performance
of hydropower in selected countries and an assessment of the risks and opportunities
related to future climate change in the context of water, energy and food security. The target
audience for this work is Department for International Development (DFID) staff together
with other development professionals, and government officials who are interested in the
performance and development of the hydropower sector in low income countries and the
trade-offs between water, energy and food security in the context of climate change.
The objective of this literature review is to detail how the factors that affect the performance
of hydropower schemes may be influenced by climate change and interactions with the
complex built, natural and social systems providing water, energy and food security. It
describes the importance of identifying trade-offs and synergies when deciding how to
balance investments in water, energy and food security, commonly referred to as the water energy - food security nexus. The literature review also outlines the criteria used to select
the three case studies, one in Africa and two in South Asia that were carried out as part of
this study.
There are a variety of measures that can be used to evaluate the performance of
hydropower schemes. These can generally be classified under the following headings:
Power generation measures; Economic measures; Social impacts; Environmental impacts;
Water use; and Greenhouse gas emissions. The performance of hydropower schemes in
low income countries was briefly reviewed using these measures.
This review also considers the main issues that affect hydropower performance including:
Funding mechanisms and the role that public and private finance plays; Availability of data;
Physical and environmental factors; Climate change; Operation and maintenance; and Type
of hydropower scheme.
Methods of the performance of existing and greenfield hydropower schemes are discussed
in the context of making these schemes more resilient to climate change.
This review explores different approaches available to assess hydropower performance in
the broader context of water energy food security. Even just within the energy sector
there are a number of challenges when comparing the performance indicators of different
power generation technologies. There is often disagreement between different organisations
with respect to the water footprint, greenhouse gas emissions and costs per unit of power of
different power generation technologies. Assessing the position of hydropower within the
energy sector is challenging; hence assessing the position of hydropower within the water
energy food nexus adds two additional dimensions of complexity. There are, however,
some trade off techniques that can be used to assist planners to maximise the benefits of
hydropower schemes to other sectors without significantly compromising their performance.
The following have been concluded from this literature review:
1.
2.

vi

Hydropower will play an increasingly important part in supplying electricity in

low income countries in Africa and Asia over the next 30 years
Existing hydropower schemes should be re-operated, improved and
rehabilitated before investing in new infrastructure - The largest enhancements
in the performance of existing hydropower will be where the key components such as

3.
4.

5.
6.

7.

8.

9.
10.
11.
12.

turbines have deteriorated and can be replaced, or operations can be changed (i.e.
re-operated) to benefit ecosystem services, irrigable agriculture and water supply
without significantly compromising power generation.
New hydropower schemes need to be assessed within the context of
comprehensive catchment-wide planning
There is a paucity of suitable hydrological data with which to plan new
hydropower schemes in many low income counties - Hydropower schemes
based on limited and unreliable hydrological data have the potential to underperform
and not to attain the benefits the infrastructure is designed to generate. In recent
years there has been a significant decline in the number of hydro-meteorological
stations in many low income countries.
Emphasis should be placed on investing in hydropower schemes that
maximise flexibility and adaptive management.
Climate change scenarios should be incorporated into the planning and design
of new hydropower schemes - There is evidence to suggest that the effects of
climate change are not being considered when new hydropower schemes are being
planned. More work is required to assess the impacts of climate change uncertainty
on proposed hydropower schemes in low income countries relative to other variables
(e.g. capital costs, operation and maintenance costs, internal rates of return).
Evaluations of proposed new hydropower schemes should include an
assessment of their water footprint and greenhouse gas emissions - There is
evidence to suggest that in tropical and sub-tropical countries these are larger than
previously anticipated. There is a need to estimate these accurately when the
performance of new and existing hydropower schemes are evaluated.
Technological innovations can improve environmental performance and
reduce operational costs of hydropower schemes - Recent research into:
variable-speed turbines; fish-friendly turbines; new sediment management
techniques; more efficient tunnelling methods; use of models to assess and optimise
the trade-offs between energy, irrigation and water supply needs as part of integrated
river basin management can improve environmental performance and reduce
operational costs of schemes.
Environmental and social issues will continue to play a significant part in the
development of new hydropower opportunities.
Improvements are required in the understanding of the water energy food
nexus and the place of hydropower within it.
Investments in new hydropower schemes should ensure that they increase
climate resilience.
Regional pools of sustainable power should be diversified to reduce the
dependency on energy sources that can be affected by climate change such as
hydropower - Creating a diverse energy supply is critical for climate change
adaptation in water stressed regions. Frameworks such as the on developed by the
Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) provides a means for diversifying power
production and reducing dependency on energy sources that can be affected by
climate change, which in some cases will include hydropower.

The following need further research and are areas where there are evidence gaps:
1.
Trade-off assessments - Although there have been a number of researchers
carrying trade-off assessments that allow the position of hydropower to be assessed
within the water energy food nexus there is still a need for more research and
guidance in this area.
2.
Estimation of greenhouse gases from hydropower scheme reservoirs Hydropower is often cited as a green form of energy; however, recent research
indicates that for hydropower schemes with large reservoirs located in hot countries
emit significant quantities of greenhouse gases. Further research is required in

vii

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

viii

tropical and sub-tropical low income countries to have a more accurate picture of
emissions from hydropower schemes.
Minimisation and utilisation of greenhouse gases generated by hydropower
scheme reservoirs to generate power It may be possible to extract methane from
the water in reservoirs and burn it as a source of energy; however, further work is
needed to assess the technical and financial feasibility of these methods.
Consumptive use of different power generation techniques and water foot
printing tools for power production techniques There are limited, accurate data
on consumptive water use in the energy sector for different power generation
techniques, compared to the data for the actual water withdrawn from the aquatic
environment. A widely accepted water footprinting tool is required to allow
hydropower to be compared to other power generation techniques in terms of water
consumption and with water use in other sectors.
Impacts of hydropower on ecosystem services including their cumulative
effects - There is still insufficient knowledge on the impacts of hydropower schemes
on ecosystem services. There is also a need to improve the assessment of
environmental risks associated with cumulative impacts, resulting from cascades of
storage dams.
Role and impacts of small-scale hydropower schemes in low income countries
- More work is required to accurately assess the role and impacts (both positive and
negative) of small scale hydropower schemes (i.e. <10 MW) in low income countries.
Financing of small-scale hydropower schemes in low income countries - There
is a need to carry out more research into sustainable financing and business models
that are required to facilitate the development of off-grid small hydropower in low
income countries.
Private sector participation in the development and operation of new
hydropower schemes - There is need to carry out more research into how the
private sector can effectively participate in hydropower scheme development and
operation.

Glossary of terms
Base load - The base load is the minimum level of demand on an electrical supply system
over 24 hours. Base load power sources are those plants that can generate dependable
power to consistently meet demand. They are the foundation of a sound electricity supply
system.
Blue water This is the fresh surface and groundwater (i.e. the water in freshwater lakes,
rivers and aquifers).
Blue water footprint Volume of surface and groundwater consumed as a result of the
production of a good or service.
BuildOperateTransfer (BOT) or BuildOwnOperateTransfer (BOOT) is a form of
project financing, wherein a private entity receives a concession from the private or public
sector to finance, design, construct, and operate a facility stated in the concession contract.
This enables the project proponent to recover its investment, operating and maintenance
expenses in the project. At the end of a defined period, the ownership of the project transfers
to the concession granting body.
Cavitation - The rapid formation and collapse of pockets of air in flowing water in regions of
very low pressure. It is a frequent cause of structural damage to hydropower turbines.
Climate change The long-term continuous change, (increase or decrease), in average
weather conditions or the range of weather.
Climate variability The way climate fluctuates yearly above or below a long-term average
value.
Dam - A barrier constructed to store or divert water for different purposes, including
electricity production. Typically made of earth, rock, or concrete.
Dead storage - The portion of a reservoirs storage capacity that is equal to the volume of
water below the level of the lowest outlet (i.e. the minimum supply level). This water cannot
be accessed under normal operating conditions.
Design-Build-Operate (DBO) - This is a project where the public sector owns and finances
the construction of new assets. The private sector designs, builds and operates the assets to
meet certain agreed outputs.
Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) - This is the discount rate often used in project
planning that makes the net present value of all cash flows from a particular project equal to
zero. Generally speaking, the higher a project's internal rate of return, the more desirable it
is to undertake.
Ecosystem services The benefits provided by ecosystems to people, or to other parts of
the natural environment.
Efficiency - A percentage obtained by dividing the actual power or energy by the theoretical
power or energy. It represents how well a hydropower plant converts the energy of flowing
water into electrical energy.
Electrical energy - Power delivered over a period of time; commonly measured in kilowatthours (kWh) or megawatt-hours (MWh).
Electric power - Rate of electric energy delivery; also a measure of a power plants
generating capacity or installed capacity; the basic measures are the kilowatt (kW) and
megawatt (MW).
Flow - Volume of water passing a point in a given amount of time, expressed in cubic metres
per second (m3/s).
Flow duration curve This is a graphical representation of the percentage of time that a
flow of any given magnitude has been equalled or exceeded.
Full supply level - The normal maximum operating water level of a reservoir when not
affected by floods.
Generator - An arrangement of magnets rotating inside a coil of wire to produce electricity.

ix

Generating capacity - A power plants ability to produce a specific amount of electricity at a

specific moment in time; measured in kilowatts or megawatts, also known as installed
capacity.
Generation - The process of converting different forms of energy, thermal, mechanical,
chemical, or nuclear, into electricity.
Gigawatt (GW) - A measure of electric power; the equivalent of 1,000 megawatts or 1
million kilowatts.
Gigawatt-hours (GWh) - A measure of electric energy; the equivalent of 1,000 megawatthours or 1 million kilowatt-hours.
Global Climate Models (GCMs) are a class of computer-driven models used to understand
the climate and for projecting climate change.
Greenfield hydropower scheme - These are projects that are constructed at previously
undeveloped sites.
Green water The precipitation on land that does not run off or recharge the groundwater
but is stored in the soil or temporarily stays on top of the soil or vegetation.
Green water footprint This is the volume of rainwater consumed during the production
process. This is particularly relevant for agricultural and forestry products (products based on
crops or wood), where it refers to the total rainwater evapotranspiration (from fields and
plantations) plus the water incorporated into the harvested crop or wood.
Grid - A network of transmission lines for the distribution of electrical energy. Grids can be
built at a range of scales from local (mini-grids) to international or continental. Higher
voltage lines are used for transmission over longer distances.
Head - The vertical change in elevation, expressed in metres, between the head water level
and the tailwater level.
Headwater level - The water level above the powerhouse.
Hydropower - The process of generating electricity by capturing the potential energy of
falling water through the use of a water wheel (turbine) to turn magnets inside a generator
that create electrical current that can be distributed to users by transmission lines.
Installed capacity - The amount of power that can be generated at a given moment by a
power plant. In this case of hydropower plants this depends on the number of turbines
installed and their generating capacity. This is usually measured in kilowatts (kW) or
megawatts (MW). Actual generation is usually measured in kilowatt-hours or megawatthours.
Intake - The entrance to a turbine unit at a hydropower plant.
Kilowatt (kW) - A measure of electrical power; the equivalent of 1,000 watts.
Kilowatt-hour (kWh) - A measure of electrical energy; the equivalent of 1,000 watt-hours
(e.g. if you burn ten 100-watt light bulbs for one hour, they will use one kilowatt-hour of
electricity).
Load - The total amount of electricity required to meet customer demand on a specific power
system (grid) at any moment.
Load shedding - An intentionally engineered electrical power shutdown whereby electricity
delivery is stopped for a certain period of time to all or parts of the distribution system.
Megawatt (MW) - A measure of bulk power; the equivalent of 1,000 kilowatts or 1 million
watts; the unit is generally used to describe the output capacity of a generator.
Megawatt-hour (MWh) - A measure of electric energy; the equivalent of 1,000 kilowatthours or 1 million watt-hours. Megawatt-hours are determined by a hydropower plants
installed capacity and how long the plant is running (e.g. a 1,000-megawatt power plant
running at full power for one hour produces 1,000 megawatt-hours (MWh) of electricity; and
if that plant runs all day, it produces 24,000 MWh).
Minimum supply level - The lowest water level to which a storage reservoir can be drawn
down (0% full) with existing outlet infrastructure; typically equal to the level of the lowest
outlet, the lower limit of the live storage capacity.
Net Present Value (NPV) - The difference between the present value of the future returns
from an investment and the future streams of costs, including the initial investment. Present

value of the expected cash flows is computed by discounting them at the required rate of
return.
Opportunity cost - The cost of an alternative that must be forgone in order to pursue a
certain action or investment.
Peak load - This is the maximum electrical power demand within a defined time frame.
Penstock - A closed conduit or pipe for conducting water to the powerhouse.
Power - This is the current delivered at a given voltage which is measured in watts or
kilowatts.
Powerhouse - The physical structure of an electric generating facility.
Renewable energy - Energy derived from naturally occurring sources that are continually
replenished within human timescales. Examples of renewable energy are wind, solar, tidal
and hydropower.
Run of river hydropower scheme A hydropower plant that has either no storage at all, or
a limited amount of storage, is referred to as pondage.
Spill - The release of water from a dam or hydropower project without passing it through the
powerhouse. Typically a situation to be avoided as water spilled is lost potential power
generation revenue.
Spillway - The structure or portion of a larger structure that is used to release excess water
over or around a dam.
Stationarity - A stationary time series (e.g. river flow series) is one whose statistical
properties (e.g. the mean and variance) are all constant over time. Most statistical
forecasting methods are based on the assumption that the time series can be rendered
approximately stationary.
Tailrace - The channel, tunnel or pipe that carries water away from a dam or hydropower
plant.
Tailwater level - The water level downstream of the powerhouse or dam.
Terawatt (TW) - A measure of electric power, the equivalent of 1,000 GW or 1 billion kW;
the unit is generally used to describe generating capacity at national or international levels.
Terawatt-hour (TWh) - A measure of electric energy; the equivalent of 1,000 GWh or 1
billion kWh.
Total storage capacity - The entire volume of water contained by a reservoir at the full
supply level. This is equal to the sum of the live storage capacity and the dead storage
capacity.
Transformer - An electromagnetic device for changing alternating current (AC) electricity to
higher or lower voltages.
Transmission - The process of moving electric power from a generation facility to domestic
and industrial users.
Turbine - A mechanical device that converts the energy of a moving stream of water, steam
or gas into mechanical energy.
Water footprint - The water footprint is an indicator of freshwater use that looks at both
direct and indirect water use of a consumer or producer.

xi

SECTION 1
Introduction
1.1 Objectives
The Harnessing Hydropower study aims to provide an analysis of the historical performance
of hydropower in selected countries and an assessment of the risks and opportunities
related to future climate change in the context of water, energy and food security. This
review is aimed at Department for International Development (DFID) staff together with other
development professionals, government staff and interested stakeholders who are engaged
in countries with plans to increase hydropower production and aiming to achieve energy,
water and food security within the context of climate change. This review has been written so
that the reader does not need to be an expert in the field of hydropower or the trade-offs
between water, energy and food security to be able understand the pertinent issues.
Increased economic growth, primarily in emerging markets, is strengthening the demand for
water, energy and food. Global energy consumption relative to 2011 is projected to increase
by nearly 35% by 2035 (IEA, 2013a), with emerging economies such as China, India, and
Brazil doubling their energy consumption in the next 40 years. By 2050, Africas electricity
generation is projected to be seven times as high as it is today. In Asia electricity generation
will more than triple by 2050 (Rodriguez, 2013).
Hydropower has increasingly been seen by international funding agencies as a solution to
meet increasing energy demands from a renewable, low-carbon source. Approximately twothirds of economically viable hydropower potential is yet to be tapped and 90% of this
potential is in developing countries (UN, 2004). Global hydropower generation capacity has
been increasing steadily over the last 30 years, and the past few years have shown an
increased growth rate (Hamududu and Killingtveit, 2012). However, hydropower is one of the
energy sources most likely to be affected by climate change and climate variability because
the amount of electricity generated is directly related to water quantity and its timing
(Harrison and Whittington, 2001). The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report highlighted potential impacts on hydropower owing to a
reduction in water availability in most dry sub-tropical regions (IPCC, 2014).
The objective of this literature review is to detail how the factors that influence the
performance of hydropower schemes may be affected by future climate change and
interactions with the complex built, natural and social systems providing water, energy and
food security. It describes the importance of identifying trade-offs and synergies when
deciding how to balance investments in water, energy and food security, commonly referred
to as the water - energy - food security nexus. The literature review also outlines the criteria
used to select the three case studies, one in Africa and two in South Asia that were carried
out as part of this study.
This literature review has been structured as follows:

Chapter 1 provides background to renewable sources of energy, hydropower

schemes, hydropower potential and the nexus between water, energy and food
security

Chapter 2 details the way in which performance of hydropower schemes can be

measured
Chapter 3 outlines the main factors that affect the performance of hydropower
Chapter 4 provides an overview of how the performance of hydropower schemes can
be enhanced
Chapter 5 gives an overview of hydropowers role with respect to the water - energy food security nexus
Chapter 6 outlines the criteria used to select the case studies in Africa and South
Asia
Chapter 7 provides conclusions and current research gaps
Chapter 8 details the references that were consulted in the compilation of this review

1.2 Background to renewable sources of energy

In 2012 renewable energy sources accounted for approximately 19% of the worlds total
energy consumption (REN21, 2014), as shown in Figure 1. Of this total, traditional biomass1,
which currently is used primarily for cooking and heating in remote and rural areas of
developing countries, accounted for about 9%, and modern renewables increased their
share to approximately 10%. Hydropower is a renewable source of energy. In 2012
hydropower provided 3.8% of the worlds energy consumption (REN21, 2014). In terms of
the worlds electricity supply hydropower accounts for approximately 16%, as shown in
Figure 2 (REN21, 2014).
In the past decade international funding agencies such as the World Bank have started to
increase their lending for hydropower schemes (World Bank, 2009) from the low levels
recorded in the late 1990s and early 2000s. This has been driven by demand from
developing countries and hydropowers multi-dimensional role in poverty alleviation and
sustainable development (World Bank, 2009). Hydropower also offers a hedge against
volatile energy prices and risks associated with the imported supply of electricity (World
Bank, 2009). In the past five years policy support and investment in renewable energy have
continued to focus primarily on the electricity sector (REN21, 2014). Consequently,
renewables have accounted for a growing share of electricity generation capacity added
globally each year.

Wood fuels, agricultural by-products and dung burned for cooking and heating purposes.

Figure 1 Estimated renewable energy share of global final energy consumption in 2012

Note:

Traditional biomass refers to solid biomass that is combusted in inefficient, and usually
polluting, open fires, stoves, or furnaces to provide heat energy for cooking, comfort, and
small-scale agricultural and industrial processing, typically in rural areas of developing
countries. It may or may not be harvested in a sustainable manner.

(Source: Adapted from REN21, 2014)

Figure 2 Estimated renewable energy share of global electricity production at the end of 2013

(Source: Adapted from REN21, 2014)

1.3 Background to hydropower schemes

1.3.1 The principles of hydropower
Hydroelectricity is generated by water falling under the force of gravity that turns the blades
of a turbine, which is connected to a generator. Electricity generated by the spinning turbine
passes through a transformer and out to transmission lines supplying domestic and industrial
demands. The principle and the technique for generating electricity from hydropower is the
same regardless of the size of the project, and plants can be tailor-made to fit a community,

country or an export market. The amount of power that can be generated is dictated by the
following:

The vertical height of water above the turbines, often referred to as the hydraulic
head
The rate of flow through the turbines

Hydropower is an efficient form of energy generation. Typically the efficiency of a modern

day hydropower plant in converting potential energy to electrical energy is about 90%
(USBR, 2005).

1.3.2 Types of hydropower plants

There are three main types of hydropower plants:

Storage
Run of river
Pumped storage

These are described below.

Storage schemes have a dam that impounds water in a reservoir that feeds the turbine and
generator. Examples of such schemes include Kariba Dam on the Zambezi River in southern
Africa and Tarbela Dam in Pakistan. Storage schemes generally have higher environmental
and social costs than pumped storage or run of river schemes because more land is
inundated and the natural flow regime is disrupted (Ledec and Quintero, 2003; Lindstrm
and Granit, 2012 and many others). A diagram of a typical scheme is shown in Figure 3.
Turbines can be located at the base of the dam or some distance downstream, served by
penstocks or tunnels that convey the water to them and increase the effective head above
the turbine. Generally storage schemes are used to supplement the base load and balance
the peak loads.
Figure 4 illustrates the terms related to the volume of storage dams utilised for hydropower,
water supply and irrigation schemes that are used in this report.
Run of river hydropower plants have either no storage at all, or a limited amount of
storage, referred to as pondage. A plant without pondage has no storage and is subject to
variability in river flows whilst a plant with pondage can regulate water flow to some extent.
Most hydropower projects in Nepal and Malawi are run of river. Run of river plants alter the
flow regime of a river to a lesser degree than storage schemes. They are generally
considered to have a lower environmental impact than hydropower schemes that utilise large
reservoirs (Lindstrm and Granit, 2012). Run of river plants are generally only appropriate
for rivers with a sufficiently high minimum dry weather flow or those regulated by a much
larger dam and reservoir upstream. They are generally used to supplement the base load.
Figure 3 shows the difference between a typical storage and run of river hydropower
scheme.
Pumped storage hydropower plants are designed solely to store energy to provide power
during peak loads (i.e. to balance peak loads). Figure 5 shows a diagram illustrating the
main principles of a pumped storage scheme. Pumped storage facilities offer the flexibility to
supplement other electricity supplies at very short notice. This form of hydropower is of
increasing importance because it can balance load differences on power grids more
effectively than technologies that typically supply base load such as conventional thermal
energy or nuclear power generation (Levine, 2003). During off-peak hours, such as between

midnight and 6 am, excess electricity produced by conventional power plants is used to
pump water from lower- to higher-level reservoirs. During periods of highest demand, the
water is released from the upper reservoir through turbines to generate electricity. This has
the additional benefit of using electricity to pump uphill when it is lower cost and generate
when it is higher cost, generating revenue through the cost differential. The combined use of
pumped storage facilities with other types of electricity generation creates large cost savings
through more efficient utilisation of base load plants.

1.3.3 Construction, operation and maintenance costs of hydropower schemes

Construction costs for new hydropower projects in Organisation for Economic Co-operation
and Development (OECD) countries are usually less than US$2 million/MW for large scale
schemes (> 300 MW), and US$2 to US$4 million/MW for small- and medium-scale schemes
(<300 MW) (IEA, 2010). A typical classification of hydropower schemes is provided in Table
1. It is important to note that the initial investment needs for particular projects must be
studied individually owing to the unique nature of each hydropower project.
Category
Small
Medium
Medium
Large
Note:

Output (MW)

Storage

< 10
10 to 100
100 to 300

Power use

Investment costs
(US$ million/MW)
2 to 4
2 to 3
2 to 3

Run of river
Base load
Run of river
Base load
Dam and
Base load and
reservoir
peak
>300
Dam and
Base load and
<2
reservoir
peak
There are numerous different ways in which countries classify large, medium and small
hydropower schemes

(Source: IEA, 2014)

Table 1 Classification of hydropower schemes

Figure 3 Diagram illustrating the difference between storage and run of river hydropower
schemes

Figure 4 Diagram showing the terms typically used to describe the available storage of a dam

Figure 5 Diagram illustrating the principles of a pumped storage hydropower scheme

The generation costs of electricity from new hydropower plants vary widely, though they
often fall into a range of US$50 to 100/MWh (IEA, 2010). It should be noted that generation
costs per MWh will be determined by the amount of electricity produced annually and that
some hydropower plants are deliberately operated for peak load demands and back-up for
sudden fluctuations in demand. This increases both the marginal generation costs and the
value of the electricity produced (IEA, 2010). As most of the generation cost is associated
with the depreciation of fixed assets, the generation cost decreases if the projected plant
lifetime is extended. Many hydropower plants built 50 to 100 years ago are fully amortised2
and still operate efficiently today (IEA, 2010).
Operation and maintenance costs have been estimated at between US$5 to 20/MWh for
new medium to large hydropower plants, and approximately twice as much for small
hydropower plants (IEA, 2010).

A loan is said to be fully amortised when payments, which apply to both the capital costs and
interest, leave the loan balance at zero at the end of the loan term.

1.4 International hydropower potential

While development of the entire worlds remaining hydropower potential could not hope to
meet future world demand for electricity, it is clear that it is the resource with the greatest
capability to provide renewable energy to the parts of the world which at present have the
greatest need (Bartle, 2002). When hydropower is implemented as part of a multipurpose
water resources development scheme, it can offer a number of other benefits, which no
other source of energy can compete with (e.g. irrigation, water supply, navigation
improvements and recreation facilities) (Bartle, 2002).
The use of hydropower and its potential for expansion varies between countries. The five
countries with the greatest potential for hydropower expansion are China, USA, Russia,
Brazil and Canada (REN21, 2014). Europe, America, and Asia have a sizable share of
hydropower capacities. The installed capacity for Europe and Northern America, though
large, has not increased much over the past 30 years, whilst during the same period the
installed hydropower capacity in Southern/Central America and Asia/Oceania has increased
by around 50% (Hamududu and Killingtveit, 2012).
Between 2009 and 2010 the global use of hydropower increased by around 5.3% reaching
3,427 TWh by the end of 2010 (Lucky, 2012). The worlds total consumption of hydropower
increased each year between 2003 and 2010. It also increased by at least 3.5% annually
during five of the seven years between 2003 and 2010 (Lucky, 2012). A total of US$40 to
US$45 billion was invested in large hydropower projects worldwide in 2010 (Lucky, 2012).
Figure 6 shows the global increase in the consumption of hydropower since 1965.
Table 2 shows regional hydropower characteristics in terms of hydropower in operation, total
potential, under-construction, planned and countries with more than 50% of their total
electricity demand supplied by hydropower.
Region

Africa
Asia
Europe
North and Central
America
South America
Australasia/
Oceania

Hydropower
in operation
(MW)

23,482
401,626
179,152
169,105

Percentage
of total
potential
hydropower
(%)
9.3
17.8
53.9
34.3

139,424
13,370

26.3
20.1

Hydropower
under
construction
(MW)

Hydropower
planned
(MW)

5,222
125,736
3,028
7,798

76,600
141,300
11,400
17,400

Number of
countries
with 50% of
electricity
supply
23
9
8
6

19,555
67

57,300
1,500

11
4

(Source: Hamududu and Killingtveit, 2012)

Table 2 World hydropower in operation, under construction and planned

Figure 6 The global consumption of hydroelectricity since 1965

(Source: Adapted from Lucky, 2012)

1.5 Background to the impacts of climate change on hydropower

Hydropower generation is one of the energy sources most likely to be affected by climate
change and climate variability because the amount of electricity generated is directly related
to water quantity and its timing. However, the impacts of climate change though temperature
and rainfall pattern changes upon hydrological cycles are complex and poorly understood in
most developing countries (Harrison and Whittington, 2001). The potential impact of climate
change on water resources has been postulated since the 1980s. Although Global Climate
Models (GCMs) can be used to predict runoff directly, their coarse scale means that this
information is only useful for the most general studies (Harrison et al., 2004; Kumar et al.,
2011). As a result, many studies have been carried out on individual catchments, showing
that river basins display a range of sensitivities to climate change. Figure 7 shows the
response of a typical river catchment to variations in precipitation and temperature. It can be
seen that increased temperature results in non-linear variations in river flows owing to
changes in precipitation.

Figure 7 Example of the change in flow as a result of a river catchments response to climate
change

100
Percentage change in flow

80
60
40
20
-20

-10

-20

10

20

-40
-60

-80
-100
Percentage change in precipitation
2C temperature rise

3C temperature rise

(Source: Adapted from Harrison and Whittington, 2001)

For example, one GCM scenario shows that hydropower production on the Indus River
would fall by 22% (Harrison et al., 2004). Another study qualitatively examined the effects of
reduced hydropower output on sub-Saharan Africa and central Europe. However, to date,
many studies have failed to quantify the impacts in terms of the investment performance of
hydropower plants and the trade-offs between energy, food and water security (Harrison et
al., 2004; World Bank, 2009).

1.6 Background to the status of hydropower in DFIDs priority

countries
There are 27 DFID priority countries. Table 3 gives an overview of the status of hydropower
in each of these countries. In many of these countries there is significant potential for the
development of hydropower resources over the next 30 years.
Country

Installed
capacity

Afghanistan

400 MW

Bangladesh

230 MW

Burma

1.54 GW

Notes
In 2009 hydropower provided around 39% of Afghanistans electricity.
The theoretical hydropower potential has been estimated at 25 GW;
only a small percentage of this has been exploited.
There is an estimated 755 MW of undeveloped hydropower potential
in Bangladesh.
The country is well endowed with hydropower resources. Its
technically feasible potential is given by the Hydropower & Dams
World Atlas as 39,720 MW. At an assumed annual capacity factor of
0.40, this level would imply an annual output capability of almost 140
TWh; actual output in 2011 was only 3.9 TWh. There thus appears to
be ample scope for substantial development of hydropower in the
long term.

Country

Installed
capacity

Democratic
Republic of
Congo

2.41 GW

Ethiopia

2,000 MW

Ghana

1.18 GW

India

38.1 GW

Kenya

761 MW

Kyrgyzstan

2.91 GW

Liberia

64 MW

Malawi

300 MW

Mozambique

2,000 MW

Nepal

660 MW

Nigeria

6,000 MW

Pakistan

6.48 GW

10

Notes
The assessed potential for hydropower is by far the highest in Africa
and one of the highest in the world. The gross theoretical potential of
the Congo River is almost 1,400 TWh/year and the technically
feasible exploitable capacity is put at 100,000 MW. The current level
of hydropower output is equivalent to only around 3% of the republics
economically exploitable capability.
There are large hydropower resources in Ethiopia. The gross
theoretical potential (650 TWh/year) is second only to that of
Democratic Republic of the Congo in Africa.
There are 17 potential hydropower sites, of which only Akosombo
(upgraded in 2005 from 912 to 1,038 MW) and Kpong (160 MW) have
so far been developed; their total net capacity, according to the Volta
River Authority website, is 1,180 MW.
Indias hydropower resource is one of the largest in the world, its
gross theoretical hydropower potential is estimated to be 2,638
TWh/year, within which is a technically feasible potential of some 660
TWh/year and an economically feasible potential of 442 TWh/year.
Out of the total power generation installed capacity in India of
1,760,990 MW (June, 2011), hydropower contributes about 21.6%
Kenya has a high dependence on hydropower for electricity
generation (approximately 50%), but the unreliability of the water
resource poses a problem, particularly for the industrial sectors
power supply and also more generally leads to the purchase of
expensive and polluting fossil fuels.
Kyrgyzstan has abundant hydropower resources. Approximately 90%
of energy produced is hydropower schemes. Only 10% of the
countrys hydropower potential has been developed.
The only hydropower facility in the country is the run of river Mount
Coffee Hydropower scheme; however, this was damaged during the
civil war and is no longer operational. There are currently plans in
place to have this plant back in operation by 2018.
There are six hydropower facilities located on the Shire river and a
mini hydropower plant at Wovwein the northern part of Malawi. There
is up to 1,000 MW of potential hydropower potential at sites located
throughout the country.
The Cahora Bassa hydropower plant on the Zambezi River is
operating at higher capacities following restoration of the transmission
lines. Other large hydropower plants in Mozambique have continued
to operate at less than full capacity. By the beginning of 2010 a
framework agreement had been signed for the 1,500 MW Mphanda
Nkuwa hydropower scheme. Other potential future hydro projects in
Mozambique include Boroma (444 MW) and Lupata (654 MW).
Current estimates are that Nepal has approximately 40,000 MW of
economically feasible hydropower potential. The hydropower system
in Nepal is dominated by run of river schemes. There is only one
seasonal storage project in the system. There is shortage of power
during winter and spills during the rainy season. There are 42 small
and mini hydropower schemes in operation, with an aggregate
capacity of approximately 20 MW.
Nigeria is endowed with hydropower potential of about 15,000 MW of
which 23% is small hydropower according to the Director General of
Nigerias Energy Commission.
The total hydropower resource in Pakistan is estimated to be about
50,000 MW. Most of the resources are located in the north of the
country, which offers sites for large scale (100 MW to 7,000 MW)
power projects. Smaller (< 50 MW) sites are available throughout the
country.

Country
Palestinian
Territories

Installed
capacity

Notes

There are no significant hydropower schemes in the Palestinian

Territories owing to the arid nature of the region.
The total hydropower capacity currently under construction is 44 MW.
Rwanda
55 MW
The total new identified and feasible hydropower capacity is 232 MW.
Sierra Leones hydropower potential remains virtually untapped with
Sierra Leone
50 MW
only 3% of a total estimated capacity from large rivers of 1,500 MW
currently being used.
Owing to the current political situation there are no known policies
Somalia
5 MW
regarding renewable energy or hydropower in Somalia.
The current emphasis in South Africa is on the development of
pumped-storage facilities. Two large plants Ingula (1,332 MW) and
South Africa
661 MW
Lima (1,500 MW) are under construction, and further projects are
being studied. There are 6,000 to 8,000 potential sites in South Africa
suitable for small hydropower (<100 MW).
South Sudan has limited installed hydropower capacity. A 42 MW
scheme on the White Nile is currently under construction. There is
considerable hydropower potential in South Sudan. Ten potential
South Sudan
8 MW
sites for hydropower on the Nile and its tributaries have been
identified and these could potentially provide 2,000 MWh of power per
day.
Sudan
1,593 MW
The economically feasible potential is some 19 TWh/year.
The terrain and climate are highly favourable to the development of
hydropower. Apart from the Russian Federation, Tajikistan has the
highest potential hydropower generation of any of the former Soviet
Tajikistan
5.5 GW
Union republics. Its economically feasible potential is estimated to be
263.5 TWh/year, of which only about 6% has been harnessed so far.
Hydropower provides about 95% of Tajikistans electricity generation.
The largest hydropower complexes are the Mtera and Kidatu Dams
and they are situated on the Great Ruaha River. The Mtera Dam is
Tanzania
561 MW
the most important reservoir in the power system providing over-year
storage capability. It also regulates the outflows to maintain the water
level for the downstream Kidatu hydropower plant
Ugandas hydropower potential has been estimated at 3,000 MW only
Uganda
340 MW
a small percentage of this has been utilised.
Owing to the arid nature of the country hydropower is not a viable
Yemen
0 MW
form of energy.
Zambias two major hydropower plants are being refurbished and
upgraded: the 900 MW Kafue Gorge (Upper) station by 90 MW and
Kariba North Bank (presently 600 MW) by 120 MW. Economic and
technical feasibility studies are being conducted on the Kafue Gorge
Zambia
1.73 GW
Lower IPP project (750 MW) and a 210 MW scheme at Kalungwishi.
Further rehabilitation and new-build projects are being developed or
studied, including the 120 MW Itezhi Tezhi scheme on the Kafue river
and the 1,800 MW Batoka Gorge bi-national project with Zimbabwe.
The total hydropower potential is 12,750 MW; with the hydropower
potential on Zambezi River being about 7,200 MW. Of this potential
Zimbabwe
754 MW
120 MW can be developed as mini-hydropower plants on existing
dams and rivers.
Note: It is important to note that various publications have different figures for the installed capacity
and the potential undeveloped hydropower potential for the same country. For consistency
the figures in Table 3 have been taken from the same source.
0 MW

(Source: World Energy Council, 2014)

Table 3 The status of hydropower in DFIDs priority countries

11

1.7 The water energy food security nexus

1.7.1 Background
Water, energy, and food are linked through numerous interactive pathways affected by a
changing climate (IPCC, 2014). The strength of these linkages vary immensely among
countries, regions, and production systems. The production of hydropower requires
significant amounts of water. Water requirements for energy currently ranges from a few
percent in most developing countries to more than 50% of freshwater withdrawals in some
developed countries (IPCC, 2014). Future water requirements will depend on growth in
demand for electricity, the portfolio of generation technologies, and water management
options. There is robust evidence to suggest that future water availability for energy
production will change owing to climate change (IPCC, 2014).
The consideration of the inter-linkages between energy, food, water, land use, and climate
change has implications for security of supplies of energy, food, and water; adaptation and
mitigation pathways; air pollution reduction; and health and economic impacts. This nexus is
increasingly recognised as critical to effective climate-resilient-pathway decision-making,
although tools to support local- and regional-scale assessments and decision-support
remain very limited (IPCC, 2014).

1.7.2 Guiding principles of the water energy food security nexus

In the past, the water, energy and food sectors were often planned and managed in
isolation. Population growth and resource depletion has led to the interdependencies
between these sectors becoming more relevant. A nexus approach is required because it
can support the transition to a green economy, which aims at resource use efficiency and
greater policy coherence (SEI, 2011). There is much work to do in order to achieve water,
energy and food security for all the worlds people. In hotspot regions such as South Asia
and sub-Saharan Africa, large portions of the population remain marginalised and deprived
of their human rights and development opportunities (SEI, 2011). To date water, energy and
food security have been mainly constrained by unequal access; however, humanity is now
also approaching limits of global resource availability (SEI, 2011).
The following guiding principles are central to the nexus approach:

Investing to sustain ecosystem services

Creating more with less
Accelerating access, integrating the poorest

Figure 8 shows the water - energy - food nexus. According to Jgerskog et al. (2013) The
Water Energy Food nexus can be assessed using methodologies in a continuum,
running from qualitative approaches at the start of the continuum, to more data driven and
quantitative modelling approaches further along it. A range of factors can determine which
approach is chosen, including the goal of the analysis, the level of capacity and trust
between competing stakeholders at different scales, sectoral integration, access to data, and
capacity for analysis. (Jgerskog et al. 2013).

12

Figure 8 8: The water energy food nexus

(Source: Adapted from SEI, 2011)

13

SECTION 2
Measures of hydropower performance
2.1 Introduction
There are a variety of measures that can be used to evaluate the performance of
hydropower schemes. A number of authors and organisations including: World Commission
on Dams (WCD) (2000a); March et al. (2008), Krahenbuhl (2008), United States Department
of Energy (2011), Vovk-Kore et al. (2008); Jha et al. (2007) and many others have
proposed ways in which the performance of hydropower schemes can be measured or
assessed. The measures can generally be classified under the following headings:

Power generation
Economic
Social impacts
Environmental impacts
Water use
Greenhouse gas emissions

These measures are discussed in the Sections below.

The benefits of large scale water storage designed for hydropower purposes were evaluated
by World Commission on Dams (WCD) against the targets used by their proponents to
justify investment including power generation, irrigation services and environmental
protection (WCD, 2000a). It is important to note that hydropower schemes utilising large
reservoirs can also have strategic benefits for drought and flood prevention. The WCD report
is widely acknowledged as a significant contribution to the debate on dams, not only on the
benefits and costs of large dams, but more generally to the current rethinking of
development decision-making in a world deeply affected by rapid global change (UNEP,
2014).

2.2 Power generation

Power generation is one variable against which the performance of hydropower schemes
can be measured. However, there have been few studies that have looked at hydropower
schemes worldwide with respect to their power generation performance. In 2000 the World
Commission on Dams (WCD) considered the power generation performance of 63 large
hydropower dams worldwide (WCD, 2000a).
The variance in performance with respect to power generation across the schemes was
high, as shown in Figure 9. On average, almost 50% of the sample exceeded the set targets
for power generation, with about 15% exceeding targets by a significant amount. Figure 9
also shows that around 20% of the schemes in the sample achieved less than 75% of the
planned power targets and that over 50% of the projects in the sample fall short of their
power production targets (WCD, 2000a). Thus the average performance in the sample is
sustained by a few over-performers and should not mask the variance in performance that is
weighted towards shortfalls in power delivery (WCD, 2000a).

14

Most of the hydropower plants that provided benefits beyond expectations had installed
extra generation capacity after commissioning (Lindstrm and Granit, 2012). Approximately
25% of the hydropower dams with higher outputs than expected had installed more than
100% of the capacity they had planned for in respective feasibility studies (WCD, 2000;
Lindstrm and Granit, 2012). This demonstrates that it is possible to make some hydropower
schemes more effective over time.
The WCD compared the actual to planned power generated by 63 hydropower projects
worldwide and plotted this against the number of years after the start of the commercial
operation of the scheme. This is shown in Figure 10. The WCD found that that the mean
power generation in the first year of commercial operation was 80% of the targeted value for
large hydropower dams (WCD, 2000a). In years two to five of operation the average
percentage realisation of targets rose to near 100%; however, this improvement in the
average for any time period masks considerable variation in the subsample with half or more
of projects still falling short of predicted power generation, as shown in Figure 10 (WCD,
2000a).
Delays in the construction phase of projects, in reservoir filling (e.g. because rainfall was
lower than average) and in installing and bringing turbines on-line often explain shortfalls in
performance of power generation (WCD, 2000). For example, Tarbela Dam in Pakistan
experienced major structural damage in commissioning trials that led to a two year loss of
power generation (WCD, 2000a).
Figure 9 Project averages for actual versus planned hydropower generation

(Source: Adapted from WCD, 2000a)

The variation in power production over time within a single project shown in Figure 10 was
investigated by the World Commission on Dams via additional case studies (WCD, 2000b).
Normal variations in weather and river flows dictate that virtually all hydropower projects will
have year-to-year fluctuations in output. Two of these case studies were Kariba Dam on the

15

Zambezi on the Zambia-Zimbabwe border and Tarbela Dam in Pakistan, shown in Figure
11.
Figure 10 Actual versus planned hydropower generation years from the start of commercial
operations

(Source: Adapted from WCD, 2000a)

Figure 11 Tarbela and Kariba Dams

View a

Tarbela Dam, Pakistan

View b

Kariba Dam, Zambia-Zimbabwe

Figure 12 shows the actual and forecast installed capacity and power generation for these
two hydropower schemes. In both cases actual installed capacity has exceeded the
predicted installed capacity, mainly as a result of additional capacity being installed after the
schemes were completed. The effect of drought years can be easily seen in the large swings
in annual power generation from Kariba, particularly over the last two decades. More details
of the impacts of drought on hydropower generation in Zambia and Zimbabwe are given in
Box 1.

16

Box 1 The impacts of the 1991-1992 drought on hydropower generation in Zambia and
Zimbabwe

Zambia and Zimbabwe depend on hydropower for the majority of their electricity. During a
drought in 1991-1992 both countries experienced severe electricity shortages. The
curtailment of electricity alone in Zimbabwe was estimated to have resulted in approximately
US$200 million loss in GDP, US$61 million in export earnings and the loss of 3,000 jobs.
(Source: Benson and Clay, 1998)
Figure 12 Actual and forecast installed capacity and power generation for Kariba and Tarbela

(Source: Adapted from the World Commission on Dams, 2000)

17

The South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People (SANDRP) has stated that there has
been no attempt at credible performance appraisal of hydropower projects in India
(SANDRP, 2012). SANDRP has carried out an assessment of large hydropower projects
(> 25 MW) in India for the past 18 years. Figure 13 shows the ratio of the number of kWh
generated per MW of installed capacity based on official data from Indias Central Electricity
Authority (SANDRP, 2012). SANDRP argues that the data in Figure 13 show diminishing
power generation from existing hydropower schemes (SANDRP, 2012) as a result of
unviable installed capacities, optimistic hydrological assumptions, over development
(development beyond the carrying capacity of the basin), catchment degradation, high rates
of sedimentation, as well as inadequate operation and maintenance. However, Figure 13
shows that such a trend in decreasing power generation based on only 18 years of data
could be as a result of climate variability, leading to variability in the hydrological regime. It
is not statistically possible to draw conclusions from these limited data that power generation
from hydropower schemes in India is generally declining as a result of the reasons given by
the SANDRP.
Figure 13 Number of kWh generated per MW of installed capacity for large hydropower
schemes in India between 1993 and 2012

(Source: Adapted from SANDRP, 2012)

Box 2 details some of the issues related to shortfalls in power generation for the Victoria
Dam hydropower scheme in Sri Lanka.

18

Box 2 Shortfall in predicted power generation at Victoria hydropower scheme in Sri Lanka

The Victoria dam in Sri Lanka had a predicted energy generation of 970 GWh/year;
however, in reality it only produces an average of 670 GWh, a shortfall of over 30%. Higher
than expected upstream irrigation abstractions and lower than predicted natural stream flows
were the causes in this case. An evaluation of the scheme by the British Government in
1986 concluded that the power output from the scheme depends on how the river systems
are managed, and on how other power plants and the irrigation schemes are operated. The
trade-offs are particularly complex. The evaluation also stated that the re-estimated rate of
return is 8% about 4% less than that at appraisal, mainly because power output is now
expected to be less than forecast in 1978 and the prospects for irrigation benefits are poor.
(Source: World Commission on Dams, 2000; ODA, 1986)

2.3 Economic impacts

Economic performance of a hydropower project can be measured via an economic appraisal
that takes into account the costs and benefits, denominated in monetary terms of the
scheme. The Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) is often used to assess the
performance of planned and constructed hydropower schemes (World Bank, 2009; WCD,
2000). The EIRR is the discount rate that makes the net present value of all cash flows from
a particular project equal to zero. Generally speaking, the higher a project's internal rate of
return, the more desirable it is to undertake the project.
Hydropower dams appear to meet pre-determined economic targets more than irrigation
dams based on the knowledge base compiled by the World Commission on Dams (WCD).
Almost 50% of the projects within the knowledge base exceeded targets (Lindstrm and
Granit, 2012). Forbes recently reported that the world average EIRR for hydropower was 7%
to 8%; however, in China they are generally 15% (Forbes, 2011).
There are also cases where outputs are lower than expected, with 5% of examined
hydropower dams in the WCD knowledge base falling well below expected outcomes. The
reasons for lower than expected results differ. In general, the time for hydropower dams to
reach expected outcomes are shorter than with irrigation dams, averaging 80% of the
expected capacity reached within the first year of operation (Lindstrm and Granit, 2012)..
This subsequently increases in years two-to-five to come close to 100% realisation of
expected targets (Lindstrm and Granit, 2012).
Similar to irrigation dams many problems related to poor performance can be traced to the
planning phases of hydropower projects. Errors or changes at early development stages
show clear linkages to greater delays in reaching expected power generation targets in early
years of operation (WCD, 2000a). This might include delays in filling up reservoirs,
postponements of components in construction phases, design changes or an inability to get
turbines up and running according to the initial planning. There are also natural
circumstances that can cause power delivery of large hydropower dams to be more variable
and less reliable once operational. Changes in weather conditions, precipitation and
hydrological patterns might yield considerable differences in annual energy outputs owing to
low river flows. In many cases, large variations in power production can be traced to drought
seasons in specific regions. Land use changes in catchments upstream can increase
erosion, leading to siltation that reduces storage capacity and the storage potential of the
reservoir (Lindstrm and Granit, 2012).
Regarding profitability of hydropower dams, conclusions can be drawn from a variety of case
studies performed by the WCD. Even if a number of projects fall short of predicted targets

19

very few projects can be considered economically unprofitable (WCD, 2000a). The number
of projects falling slightly short of planned profitability is matched by a number of projects
that outperform their original estimates of profitability, with specific projects reaching
respectable Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) values even after decades in
operations (WCD, 2000a). The Kariba dam located on the border between Zambia and
Zimbabwe on the Zambezi river basin, which boasts an EIRR value of 14.5%, is a prime
example (Lindstrm and Granit, 2012).
Multi-purpose structures, arrangements and layouts are, by definition, more complex than
single use designs. Combining different uses, such as hydropower and flood control,
requires that alternative reservoir functions are balanced and maintained in an optimal way
to maximise benefits from multi-purpose schemes. The WCD concludes that the impacts of
conflicting water use arising between different operational uses of multi-purpose dams are
underestimated. Ecosystem services and socio-economic development schemes will usually
be considered during project design even in a single purpose scheme example (Lindstrm
and Granit, 2012).
It is important to note that in many developing countries and especially Africa, sources of
electricity are often selected using least cost criteria and analysis (Hankins, 2009). This
aims at identifying the least cost project option for supplying sufficient power to meet the
forecast demand. Least cost analysis involves comparing the costs of various mutually
exclusive, technically feasible project options and selecting the one with the lowest costs
(EDReC, 1997)
Whilst least cost criteria have the short-term advantages in procuring energy sources for the
lowest amounts of money, narrow financial considerations when selecting power sources are
not necessarily healthy for the long-term (Hankins, 2009). Hankins states that the strict
adherence to least-cost power planning has a number of drawbacks including:

Least-cost power sources often have environmental problems that are not
considered in the least-cost accounting e.g. coal-fired power plants emit large
quantities of carbon dioxide and cause increased reliance on fossil fuels
Mega-projects, such as large hydropower schemes or large thermal power stations,
that deliver power centrally have the disadvantage of not decentralizing power
distribution to parts of the country that need investment. The costs of transmission
and distribution lines from the central locations to remote areas are high and this can
result in many areas remaining unelectrified
Least-cost planning ignores new sources of energy that will become more important
in the future, such as solar and wind power
Least cost planning does not encourage diversification of power sources

(Hankins, 2009)

2.4 Social and environmental impacts

2.4.1 Introduction
The costs and benefits of hydropower development have not been evenly or equitably
distributed among societies and this is one of the biggest challenges for the sustainability of
hydropower (WCD, 2000a). At the same time as extensive benefits have been realised by
the introduction of hydropower, a significant amount of damage has been done to
environmental and social systems through the process of building and operating the dams
associated with hydropower facilities (WCD, 2000a). This has most often resulted from

20

inadequacies in the planning process at the pre-feasibility and feasibility stages, ignoring or
undervaluing the affected resources.
Issues of social and environmental degradation and under-performance are intertwined
owing to the complexity of social and environmental systems and the reactions of both
people and nature to disturbances (Egr and Milewski, 2002). The non-market valuation of
ecosystem goods and services has presented a challenging problem (Sagoff, 2008 and
2011; Abson and Termansen, 2011) meaning their loss or degradation has often been
excluded or marginalised in economic cost-benefit analysis (Salzman, 1997). An overview of
the social and environmental impacts of different types of hydropower schemes is given in
Table 4.
Type of
hydropower
scheme
All

Run of river

Storage

Multi-purpose
Pumped
storage

Overview of the environmental and social impacts

Barrier for fish migration and navigation, as well as sediment transport

Physical modification of riverbed and shorelines
Resettlement of people
Loss of livelihoods
Unchanged river flow when powerhouse in dam toe; when located further
downstream reduced flow between intake and powerhouse
Alteration of natural and human environment by impoundment, resulting in
impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity and communities
Modification of volume and seasonal patterns of river flow, changes in water
temperature and quality, land use change-related greenhouse gas emissions
As for reservoir hydropower schemes
Possible water use conflicts
Driver for regional development
Impacts confined to a small area; often operated outside the river basin as a
separate system that only exchanges the water from a nearby river from time to
time

(Source: Adapted from IEA, 2000; Egr and Milewski, 2002)

Table 4 Environmental and social impacts of different types of hydropower scheme

2.4.2 Social impacts

The performance of hydropower schemes, in terms of social impacts can be measured by
the following:

Size of the involuntary population displacement and how, if this has to take place, the
effects can be ameliorated
The number of affected people and vulnerable groups especially with respect to
groups that might be considered vulnerable with respect to the degree to which they
are marginalised or impoverished and their capacity and means to cope with change
Public health
Cultural heritage
Sharing development benefits

On a relative scale some of the above social impacts can create an additional burden in a
small country even when the number of people affected is relatively low (Cernea, 1997). Box
3 illustrates the importance of monitoring and following up hydropower projects where social
impacts have apparently been dealt with successfully.

21

Box 3 Social impacts of Nangbeto hydropower scheme, Togo

The reservoir of the Nangbeto hydropower scheme in Togo that was completed in 1987
displaced 10,600 people, of which 3,000 lost their houses but little of their land. The other
7,600 had to be moved to resettlement zones 30 to 55 km from their former homes. These
zones were in sparsely populated areas. The resettlement was initially seen as successful.
However, since 1987, migration and natural growth have caused overpopulation, which
curtailed the former system of extensive agriculture based on rotation among landholdings of
the land area farmed in any single year. Without sufficient incomes to afford fertilizers,
improved seeds, and other inputs to maintain soil fertility, settlers often got trapped in a
spiral of declining yields and incomes. This demonstrates that even apparently successful
resettlement requires monitoring and follow-up.
(World Bank, 2000)

2.4.3 Environmental impacts

The main environmental impacts of hydropower schemes are summarised in Figure 14. With
respect to new dams the most effective environmental mitigation measure is good site
selection, to minimise the potential impacts in the first place (NHA, 2010). In general, the
most environmentally benign hydropower dam sites are on upper tributaries, while the most
problematic ones are on the large rivers further downstream of the headwaters (Ledec and
Quintero, 2003).
Figure 14 Overview of the environmental impacts of hydropower schemes

(Source: Adapted from Vovk-Kore et al., 2008)

Ledec and Quintero (2003) presents a number of quantitative, easily calculated indicators
that are especially useful for hydropower scheme site selection from an environmental point

22

of view. The indicators have a high predictive value for likely adverse environmental impacts.
The information is normally easy to obtain from basic dam planning data, often without the
need for a separate environmental study (Ledec and Quintero, 2003). These indicators are
summarised below:

Reservoir surface area The area flooded by the reservoir is a strong proxy
variable for many environmental impacts (Goodland, 1997). A useful measure of
environmental costs relative to economic benefits is the ratio of inundated hectares
per Megawatt (ha/MW) of electricity. The global average for large hydropower dams
constructed is about 60 ha/MW (Ledec and Quintero, 2003)
Water retention time in reservoir Mean water retention time during normal
operation (the shorter, the better) is very useful in estimating the extent to which
reservoirs will have long-term water quality problems
Flooded biomass in terms of tonnes per hectare
Length of river impounded
Length of river left dry This is the length of river left dry (i.e. with less than 50% of
dry season mean flow) below the dam as the result of diverting water
Number of undammed, downstream tributaries The more large, undammed
tributaries downstream of the dam site, the better, in terms of limiting environmental
damage
Likelihood of reservoir stratification This occurs when the lakes upper zone is
thermally divided from the deeper zone and the latter becomes stagnant and lacking
in dissolved oxygen, making it unsuitable for most aquatic life (Ledec and Quintero,
2003)
Useful reservoir life This is the expected number of years before a reservoirs
dead storage is completely filled and sediment commences to fill the live storage
Extent of access roads through forests
Area of critical natural habitats affected
Fish species diversity and endemism Fish species diversity is the number of
species known from the project area, including the dam and reservoir site, as well as
the downstream zone of dam. Fish species endemism is the number of native
species located only in the project area, or the river system where the project is
located, and nowhere else on earth (Ledec and Quintero, 2003)

The above indicators can also be used retrospectively to rapidly evaluate the environmental
impacts of an existing hydropower scheme. Box 4 provides an illustration of two large
hydropower projects that have contrasting environmental impacts.
Box 4 Contrasting environmental impacts of two large hydropower projects

The 500 MW Pehuenche hydropower scheme in Chile flooded only about 400 ha of land,
with minimal damage to forest or wildlife resources, and has had no water quality problems.
The Brokopondo Dam in Suriname inundated about 160,000 ha of biologically valuable
tropical rainforest and has had serious water quality and aquatic weed problems, while
providing relatively little electric generating capacity (i.e. around 30 MW).
(Source: Ledec and Quintero, 2003)

Box 5 gives background to the Southern African Power Pools (SAPP) environmental and
social impact assessment guidelines for hydropower projects which appear to be being
widely used in Southern Africa in the planning of new hydropower schemes (Moremoholo,
2011).

23

Box 5 Southern African Power Pools (SAPP) environmental and social impact assessment
guidelines for hydropower projects

The Southern African Power Pool (SAPP), is the first formal international power pool in
Africa. It was created with the primary aim of providing reliable and economical electricity
supply to the consumers of each of the SAPP members, consistent with the reasonable
utilisation of natural resources and the effect on the environment. It covers 12 of the 14
members of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), (it does not cover
Mauritius and the Seychelles).
SAPP has produced guidance for the carrying out and assessing the performance of
Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA) and Social Impact Assessments (SIA) for
hydropower schemes. These cover: identification and mitigation for impacts during: siting;
resettlement; construction; operation and maintenance; and decommissioning. The SAPP
guidelines appear to be being used in the planning of new hydropower schemes in southern
Africa (see Moremoholo, 2011).
SAPP has reported that the environmental and social impact caused by hydropower
schemes in southern Africa are:

Excessive and emergency release of waters

Material delivery, storage and handling
Traffic
Emissions
Waste in all forms
Leaks and spillages
Unsuitable compensation procedures
Lack of communication

(SAPP, 2007; Moremoholo, 2011)

Box 6 provides background to the International Hydropower Associations (IHA) hydropower

sustainability assessment protocol. This was launched fairly recently (2011) and at present
does not appear to be being widely used to assess hydropower schemes in low income
countries.
Box 6 International Hydropower Associations (IHA) hydropower sustainability assessment
protocol

The International Hydropower Associations (IHAs) Hydropower Sustainability Assessment

Protocol is an enhanced sustainability assessment tool used to measure and guide
performance in the hydropower sector. The protocol:

is a framework for assessing the sustainability of hydropower projects

distils hydropower sustainability into more than 20 clearly-defined topic
provides a consistent, globally-applicable methodology
is governed by a multi-stakeholder council
is regulated by a charter and terms and conditions of use

The protocol was the result of the Hydropower Sustainability Assessment Forum, a multistakeholder body with representatives from social and environmental Non-Governmental
Organisations (i.e. Oxfam, The Nature Conservancy, Transparency International, WWF);
governments (i.e. China, Germany, Iceland, Norway, Zambia); commercial and development
banks (i.e. Equator Principles Financial Institutions Group, The World Bank); and the

24

hydropower sector, represented by IHA.

The protocol was officially launched in June 2011 and is governed by a multi-stakeholder
council, reflecting the broad stakeholder groups contained in the forum, and made up of a
governance committee, chambers and a management entity.
There are four assessment tools: Early stage; Preparation, Implementation, and Operation
which are designed to be stand-alone assessments applied at particular stages of the project
life cycle of a hydropower scheme covering a complete range of technical, environmental,
social and economic issues.
Protocol assessments in the public domain are provided on the IHAs website. However, to
date there are only eight available and none of these are for hydropower schemes in low
income counties.
(IHA, 2010; IHA, 2012)

There has been some criticism levelled at the IHA hydropower sustainability assessment
protocol. The main one is that unlike the World Commission on Dams the IHA protocol does
not define any clear minimum standards that dam developers must comply with or rights that
must be respected (Lawrence, 2009). Further issues are summarised below:

A catchment-wide approach to decision-making on water and energy projects is not

required (i.e. the protocol works on a site or project level)
There is no need to provide access to information and legal support for stakeholders
There is no obligation to include a clear compliance framework, which is subject to
independent review, that includes both sanctions and incentives with necessary costs
built into the project budget
Many of the principles of the IHA protocol are not measurable

(Source: Lawrence, 2009)

2.5 Water use

A water footprint of a product or service is a comprehensive measure of freshwater
consumption that connects consumptive water use to a certain place, time, and type of water
resource (Dourte and Fraisse, 2012). A water footprint accounts separately for three types of
freshwater consumption:

Green water use, which is consumption from rainfall

Blue water use, which is consumption from groundwater or surface water
Grey water use, which is the water required to reduce pollutant concentrations to
acceptable levels

(Mekonnen and Hoekstra, 2012; Dourte and Fraisse, 2012).

The water footprint of hydropower schemes refers only to the blue water footprint and is
defined as the amount of water used to produce a given unit of electricity.
Mekonnen and Hoekstra (2012) carried out research to assess the blue water footprint of
hydropower schemes, (i.e. the water evaporated from manmade reservoirs), for 35 selected
sites worldwide. The aggregated blue water footprint of the selected hydropower plants was
90 Gm3/year, which is equivalent to 10% of the blue water footprint of global crop production
in the year 2000 (Mekonnen and Hoekstra, 2012). The total blue water footprint of

25

hydropower generation in the world is considerably larger if one considers the fact that
Mekonnen and Hoekstras study covered only 8% of the global installed hydropower
capacity (Mekonnen and Hoekstra, 2012). The water footprint for hydropower schemes in
some low income countries is given in Table 5.
Scheme

Akosombo-Kpong,
Ghana
Cahora Bassa,
Mozambique
Itezhi Tezhi,
Zambia
Kariba ZambiaZimbabwe
Kiambere, Kenya
Kulekhani, Nepal

Evaporation
(mm/year)

Reservoir
area (ha)

Installed
capacity
(MW)

Water footprint (m /MWh)

Theoretical
Actual energy
energy
production
production
1,796
3,046

850,200

1180

2,185

266,000

2075

3,059

446

670

37,000

600

2,572

181

340

510,000

1320

2,860

1,260

2,279

2,500
2,000

150
60

2,356
1,574

45
60

65
169

(Source: Adapted from Mekonnen and Hoekstra, 2012)

Table 5 Blue water footprint for selected hydropower schemes in DFID priority countries

This research highlights the following that should be taken into account during the planning
stage of hydropower schemes:

Assessing the water footprint is an additional consideration when evaluating the

environmental, social and economic sustainability of a proposed hydropower scheme
(Demeke et al., 2013). Assessing the water footprint of new schemes would allow
them to be more easily compared with other power generation options, as well as
other competing water uses
The water footprint of hydropower schemes should be studied in the context of the
river catchment in which this water footprint occurs, because competition over water
and possible alternative uses of water (e.g. irrigation, water supply) differ per
catchment

2.6 Greenhouse gas emissions

Hydropower is often cited as a green form of energy; however, some researchers believe
that the clean, green image of dams may have been seriously overstated (Giles, 2006). In
1993 Rudd et al. were amongst the first researchers to postulate that hydropower schemes
that utilise large reservoirs release significant amounts of greenhouse gases, especially in
their early years of operation following the impoundment of the reservoir (Rudd et al., 1993).
Lima et al. (2008) estimated reservoirs in the tropics could be contributing an additional 30%
to existing estimates of global methane emissions. Greenhouse gases can be generated by
decay of standing and inflowing biomass and stratification of the water body (St Louis et al.,
2000; Giles, 2006; Fearnside, 2002 and 2004). They are emitted from the surface, by
bubbling up from the sediments or through sudden pressure changes during turbine
operations or other releases (St Louis et al., 2000; Giles, 2006; Fearnside, 2002 and 2004).
Raadal et al. (2011) carried out a review of the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions from the
generation of wind and hydropower (Raadal et al., 2011). Their review considered 38
hydropower schemes, the results of which in terms of greenhouse gas emissions per

26

kilowatt hour are shown in Figure 15. It is important to note that many of the hydropower
schemes that Raadal et al. reviewed are located in temperate zones such as North America
and Europe. Researchers tend to concur that hydropower schemes located in the tropics
emit more greenhouse gases than those found in cooler parts of the world (Mendoa et al.,
2012).
There is still a great deal of uncertainty related to greenhouse gas emissions over the entire
life cycle of large hydropower schemes and this is an area where more research on the
greenhouse emissions of hydropower schemes located in Africa and Asia is needed. For
example, there has been significant debate over greenhouse gas emissions from
hydropower schemes in Brazil. Annual greenhouse gas emissions from the Tucuru
hydropower scheme located in the Brazilian Amazon, which has an installed capacity of
8,370 MW and a reservoir surface area of 2,850 km2, have been argued to be larger than
the greenhouse emissions from So Paulo, which is Brazils largest city (Fearnside, 2002).
Other researchers contested this finding and considered the greenhouse gas emissions to
be largely overestimated (Rosa et al., 2004). This led to a debate between two groups with
contrasting opinions (Fearnside, 2004; Rosa et al., 2004; Cullenward and Victor, 2006;
Fearnside, 2006; Giles, 2006; Maeck et al., 2013).
Figure 15 Summary of life cycle greenhouse gas emissions from hydropower

(Source: Raadal et al., 2011)

Although the researchers disagree on the amount of greenhouse gases emitted from large
hydropower storage schemes in relation to other energy sources, they do agree that
greenhouse gas emissions from tropical reservoirs can be significant. There also appears to
be agreement that greenhouse emissions are correlated to reservoir age and latitude, with
the highest emission rates from the tropical Amazon region (Barros et al., 2011). Thus future
emissions will be highly dependent on the geographic location of new hydropower reservoirs
(Barros et al., 2011).
As part of the Kyoto Protocol a Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) was initiated. This is
a project-based mechanism that allows industrialised countries to generate emission

27

reduction credits through projects in developing countries (Mkinen and Khan, 2010).
Hydropower is the most popular type of CDM project (Talberg and Nielson, 2009). An
overarching requirement of the CDM is that project activities must help host countries to
achieve sustainable development and contribute to the overall objective of the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) of reducing greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere.
One of the main conditions of CDM funding is the principle of additionality, meaning it
should not be available to projects which are profitable investments in their own right. CDM
funding should only be used to support investment in low carbon technologies such as
hydropower where this is not a profitable proposal. This is notoriously difficult to assess
however, and leads to much of the CDMs reserves being consumed by large already
profitable schemes (Pittock, 2010). Pittock (2010) also reports that CDM grant conditions
conflict with the Convention on Biological Diversity and Ramsar Convention on Wetlands,
allowing negative environmental impacts to be inadvertently promoted (Pittock, 2010).
In February 2006, the CDM Executive Board ruled that hydropower projects in the largescale category must satisfy certain power density conditions in order to be eligible as CDM
project activities (Mkinen and Khan, 2010). The power density is defined as the installed
generation capacity divided by surface area of the hydropower reservoir. Table 6
summarises the power density thresholds put in place as a precautionary measure whilst
clarification of the magnitude of reservoir greenhouse emissions is established.
Power density of hydropower
2
scheme (W/m )
<4
4 to 10
>10

Eligibility to use approved methodologies under CDM rules

Excluded from using currently approved methodologies
Allowed to use approved methodologies but project emissions
must be included at 90g CO2 equivalent per kWh
Allowed to use approved methodologies and project emissions
can be neglected

(Source: Mkinen and Khan, 2010)

Table 6Restrictions on hydropower projects under the Kyoto Protocol Clean Development
Mechanism (CDM)

It is important to note that since 2011 global carbon markets have shrunk in value by 60%.
This has affected the UNs flexible mechanisms, including the Clean Development
Mechanism (CDM) (Redd-Monitor, 2014). The UN flexible mechanisms now account for 1%
of the value of the worlds carbon markets and investment in new CDM projects has ground
to a halt (Redd-Monitor, 2014).

28

SECTION 3
Factors affecting hydropower performance
3.1 Introduction
There are a number of ways in which the performance of hydropower performance can be
affected. This chapter covers the main issues that impact performance including:

Funding mechanisms and the role that public and private finance plays
Availability of data
Physical and environmental factors including: hydrology; sedimentation; climate
variability
Climate change
Operation and maintenance
Type of scheme i.e. single purpose versus multi-purpose schemes

3.2 Funding mechanisms

3.2.1 Public and private: Concepts and definitions
For clarity, a distinction should be made between ownership and finance, different kinds of
finance, and different sources of equity. In practice, there is increasing overlap between
public and private involvement and the growth in the number of hybrid projects involving
private finance and operation within a publicly owned structure (as in Independent Power
Projects (IPPs), Build Own Operate Transfer (BOOTs) and other forms of concession
contract). One leading specialist has even proposed a refocusing of the topic to be on
private financing of public projects (Head, 2000) owing to problems with the satisfactory
allocation of risks to private partners, and the benefits of a sizeable public stake in these
projects. IPPs and BOOTs are defined below.

3
4

Independent Power Projects (IPPs) These are privately financed greenfield3

generation, supported by non-recourse4 or limited recourse loans, with long-term
power purchase agreements with the state utility or another off-taker (Gratwick and
Eberhard, 2008)
Build Own Operate Transfer (BOOT) This is a concession contract in which the
sponsor is responsible for building and financing the infrastructure, operating it
through the concession period, receiving payment from the client (typically under a
take or pay deal with the offtaker) and eventually transferring ownership of the
asset back to the client at the end of the concession period.

Usually taken to mean new, stand-alone capacity, rather than creation of distribution systems.
In which the lender only has the right to repayment from the cash flow of the project (or
Special Purpose Vehicle) rather than from the balance sheet of the sponsoring company or
agency.

29

3.2.2 Ownership
Most large hydropower schemes, especially those incorporating large storage dams, are
owned by host governments and their public agencies. However, under privately financed
initiatives such as IPPs and BOOTs, the physical assets created by the project start off in the
ownership of the contractor, before eventually passing to the public client at the end of the
concession period.

3.2.3 Finance
Owing to the risk involved hydropower projects tend to have a relatively high equity element
in their financing structures. This was true in 20% to 40% of the cases reviewed by Head
(2000). This equity may be provided by host governments, International Financing
Institutions (IFIs), or private companies (including contractors). The rest is debt finance,
typically involving loans from public IFIs such as the Asian Development Bank (ADB),
African Development Bank (AfDB), Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) and the
European Investment Bank (EIB), often involving commercial banks through syndicated
operations (A and B Loans, in which B loans from commercial banks enjoy the same
repayment status as the IFI loans themselves).
For completeness, commercial finance is a more accurate description of loans than the term
private, since much lending in this sector is from international public agencies, and stateowned and controlled banks, as well as private plcs5. The same is true of equity and bonds,
which can be held by both private and public agencies. The key point is that commercial
finance, i.e. loans, bonds and equity, is offered for commercial motives, on market or nearmarket terms, and has to be repaid.
The most comprehensive database of private involvement in infrastructure is maintained by
the Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility (PPIAF), hosted by the World Bank (see
www.ppiaf.org). All projects with significant private participation are included, spanning a
range of interventions such as management contracts as well as equity investment and
concessions. Participation implies exposure to performance and other risks of the project.

3.2.4 The nature and extent of private sector involvement in hydropower

projects
Within the power sector, hydropower has tended to have minority appeal to private
generators, typically accounting for 5% or less of new private power projects, compared with
90% or more of privately financed projects that are fossil-fuelled (Head, 2004).
Private financial involvement in hydropower projects has always been on a smaller scale
than publicly sponsored and financed schemes. For large hydropower projects in 2012,
15,509 MW of projects with private participation reached financial closure in developing
countries, with total project costs of US$21.15 billion. For small hydropower projects, the
corresponding figures were 1,113 MW to a value of US$1.25 billion. In both cases, Brazil
accounted for most of the activity (PPIAF, 2013).
Within hydropower, public and private sponsors gravitate to different modes of supply. The
bulk of private schemes are run-of-river projects, smaller and less risky in terms of
investment than large projects involving stored water. Typical of this is one of the latest
private hydropower projects in Pakistan, from the Hub Power Company, an 84 MW run of
river , low head, project starting in March 2013 (PPIAF, 2013). Of the 10 hydropower
projects with private participation analysed by Head (2000), six are run of river schemes, the
5

30

Some of which themselves have sizeable government equity holdings.

remainder involving storage. Three of the projects are of the IPP variety. The largest project,
a storage scheme, has 1,455 MW capacity.

3.2.5 Reasons for publicly funding hydropower projects

Large hydropower projects involving big dams and reservoirs tend to have a heavy public
ownership, management and financing element, for various reasons:

High pre-investment costs, followed by heavy up-front capital costs which are
sunk once incurred, which makes commercial financing difficult, unless public
equity and guarantees form part of the package.
Their multi-purpose nature. The stored water has a role in flood control and
drought mitigation, which are public goods as well as use for irrigation and municipal
supply, typically cross-subsidised from power sales. These features make for a large
public interest in all aspects of hydro projects.
Allocation of risks. Attempts by public sector clients to allocate risks to their private
partners have not always been successful, except at excessive insurance, financing
and other mitigation costs. This has sometimes led to renegotiation of contracts,
resulting in risks being repatriated by the public sector and increasing public control
over the project

(Head, 2000;Head, 2004; Brown et al., 2009)

3.2.6 The performance of publically and privately funded hydropower projects

The literature review found no studies offering a direct meaningful comparison between the
performance of publicly and privately sponsored hydropower projects. Such a comparison
would be bedevilled by problems of comparing like with like. The barriers to making a
meaningful comparison include:

Private sponsors gravitate towards smaller, less risky, run of river projects, leaving
larger projects involving storage predominantly under public ownership, management
and financing.
Each major dam project has unique features and factors which make comparisons
difficult, and weakens the credibility of any lessons drawn. The larger the project, the
more unique it is likely to be.
Public regulators invariably take a close interest in private operators, and have a
major influence on the performance of the project (e.g. through tariff controls,
environmental restrictions, overriding operational protocols at times of drought or
flooding). South Africas power problems in recent years is a result of government
indecision and policy reverses, which have discouraged private entry into a sector
still dominated by the parastatal ESKOM (World Bank, 2010).
For major storage schemes the allocation of risks between the different parties can
have a big influence on performance (Head, 2000).

The World Commission on Dams (WCD) analysed the performance of major dams, based
on eight detailed case studies, wholly in the public sector, and literature searches of other
cases. It should be noted that this report contains no acknowledgement of private finance or
operation in major dam construction and operation. The WCD found that large dams
demonstrated a tendency towards schedule delays and cost overruns (WCD, 2000a). This
has knock-on effects in terms of undermining the financial viability of dams or efforts to
recover costs through tariffs. The average cost overrun of 81 large dam projects which the
WCD scrutinised was 56%. Of the total sample, one quarter of the dams achieved less than
planned capital cost targets whilst almost three quarters had cost overruns (WCD, 2000a).

31

It may be significant that multi-purpose, rather than single purpose, dams showed
particularly high variability in achieving their performance targets. The average cost overrun
was 63% for the 45 multi-purpose projects, three times that of the single-purpose
hydropower dams in the sample. The category of single purpose dams most prone to
overrun was water supply dams, the average for which was twice that of single purpose
irrigation or hydropower dams. WCDs conclusion was that single purpose hydropower dams
performed well in terms of cost overruns (WCD, 2000a).
Cost overruns can be ascribed to the following:

Poor cost estimates

Technical problems arising during construction (e.g. geotechnical conditions at a site
often cannot be determined exactly until construction is underway)
Poor implementation by suppliers and contractors
Changes in external (economic and regulatory) conditions, including poor prediction
of inflation, amongst other factors.

However, the WCD also reviewed 23 completed large dam projects undertaken by the Asian
Development Bank, the majority of which had actually experienced cost under-runs (WCD,
2000a).
The most cited study is that of 70 World Bank financed hydropower projects commissioned
between 1965 and 1986 where costs on completion were on average 27% higher than
estimated at appraisal. This compares with average cost overruns of 6% for a sample of 64
thermal power projects and 11% overrun for a sample of 2000 development project of all
types (Bacon et.al. 1996).
The WCD case study dams displayed a range of results in achieving project schedules.
Stage 1 of Kariba Dam and hydropower scheme in southern Africa came in on schedule,
whereas Tarbela Dam in Pakistan took two extra years to finish and the Aslantas
hydropower scheme in Turkey took an additional four years (WCD, 2000b). Financing
difficulties led to a nine year delay in the case of Tucurui hydropower complex in Brazil. A
study of World Bank- financed hydropower projects reports a 28% delay on average (but no
different from that recorded in the same study for thermal power projects) (Bacon, et. al.
1996).
A former Senior Water Adviser to the World Bank has pointed out that in recent years the
World Banks only two flagship engagements in large hydropower projects (Nam Theun 2
in Laos and Bujugali in Uganda) each took well over a decade between start of preparation
and construction, owing, amongst other reasons, to a protracted series of internal reviews to
ensure they met the World Banks various safeguard policies (Briscoe, 2011). The situation
has changed, to the extent that developing countries now have other options than the World
Bank. China and other emerging market financiers can offer dam construction on much
shorter construction schedules, with lighter conditionality, and with financing packages on
terms intermediate between commercial and concessionary loans (Foster, et. al. 2008).

3.2.7 Trends in the funding and development of hydropower projects

As stated above, with few exceptions, the development, ownership and operation of
hydropower projects in the past has been the responsibility of governments and national
utilities. In industrialised countries such projects were financed from internal sources or
balance sheet borrowings; in developing countries concessional capital from multilateral and
bilateral agencies was used (Oud, 2002).

32

Oud states that the increasing role of the private sector the development of infrastructure
leads to:

Emphasis on financial project efficiency, resulting in reduced availability of time and

funds for planning, investigation and construction work, and also an emphasis on
cost-cutting operation and maintenance procedures
Externalization of the indirect costs associated with the project to the maximum
extent possible
Levying of water (or power) tariffs which guarantee an attractive financial internal rate
of return on the investment, these rates typically being higher than those projects
financed conventionally in the past from grants and concessional loans
Off-loading of as much risk as possible onto other parties, particularly onto the
Government

(Oud, 2002)

Oud summarised the trends in the development of hydropower in Table 7.

Old approach
A hydropower project is a
technical scheme to
provide basic technical
infrastructure to improve
the supply of power
Planning is governments
responsibility, often
assisted by international
development agencies

Least-cost planning
procedure
Identify the least-cost
project to cover power
needs
Carry out unavoidable
social and environmental
impact mitigation at
minimum cost
Carry out detailed studies

New approach
A hydropower project is part of a bundle of technical, environmental
and social measures to:
Cover electricity needs in an efficient and sustainable manner
Improve the welfare of people in the region, particularly those directly
affected by the project
Improve environmental protection
Planning involves many partners and stakeholders including:
Governments
People affected
Non-Governmental Organisations
Private sector developers
Financing institutions
Multi-criteria planning procedure
Projects must be part of sectoral development plan and or comply
with the rules and criteria of a strong national or regional licensing or
regulatory body
Projects must be sustainable
Rigorous study of project alternatives including the no project option
Prepare a comprehensive comparison matrix showing the
advantages and disadvantages of each alternative from technical,
environmental, social, economic, financial, risk and political
perspectives
Reach consensus amongst stakeholders about overall best
alternative to be developed (broad public acceptance instead of
least cost)
Carry out detailed studies

(Source: Oud, 2002)

Table 7 Trends in the development of hydropower projects

33

3.3 Physical and environmental factors

3.3.1 Hydrology
The performance of hydropower schemes is directly linked to the hydrological regime of the
catchment in which they are located. Understanding the future hydrological characteristics
of catchments is becoming ever more difficult because as a result of climate change it is no
longer valid to assume that the future runoff will have the same statistical characteristics as
past runoff (i.e. stationarity cannot be assumed into the future).
Harrison et al. (2003) looked at the effects of climate change on runoff and hydropower
performance for the 1,600 MW Batoka Gorge project that is proposed for the Zambezi River,
upstream of Lake Kariba and 54 km downstream of Victoria Falls on the Zambia-Zimbabwe
border. The project would comprise a 181 m high dam. It would have a catchment of some
508,000 km2 (Zambezi River Authority, 2005). Figure 16 shows the forecast change in
annual runoff from the Upper Zambezi as temperature and precipitation levels are altered
under future climate change (Harrison et al., 2003). Harrison et al. found that their results
were in agreement with the general conclusions drawn by Arnell (1996) which are that under
climate change:

Changes in runoff tend to be greater than the precipitation change causing them
Runoff is more sensitive to changes in precipitation than changes in temperature.

Figure 16 Examples of Impacts of future changes in precipitation and temperature on changes

in river flows in the Zambezi River catchment

(Source: Adapted from Harrison et al., 2003)

The work carried out by Harrison et al. (2003) shows that the annual changes in runoff hid
differences between changes in high flows (January to July) and low flows (August to
December) (Harrison et al., 2003). For example, in the rainy season there was found to be
an approximately 40% rise in high flows but only a 16% rise in low flows. The larger increase
in rainy season flows was caused by the inability of already wet soils to absorb more water
(Harrison et al., 2003). Figure 17 shows the changes in flows predicted by Harrison et al. at
the Batoka Gorge site on the Zambezi in southern Africa under two climate change
scenarios.

34

Such changes in flow directly affect the potential amount of power that can be generated. In
the case of the Batoka Gorge hydropower site Harrison et al (2003). The study found that
although volumetrically greater changes in output occurred during the high flow period,
changing climate impacts proportionately more on low flows (Harrison et al., 2003). Under
the wet scenario (an increase in precipitation of 20%) power production was found to be
raised by 7% and 18% for high and low flow periods, respectively, while under the dry
scenario (a decrease in rainfall of 20%) monthly power output decreased by 23% and 30%
on the same basis (Harrison et al., 2003). These changes are shown in Figure 18.
Figure 17 Impacts of two future change scenario on monthly flows at the Batoka Gorge
hydropower site on the Zambezi

(Source: Adapted from Harrison et al., 2003)

35

Figure 18 Impacts of two future change scenario on predicted mean monthly power generation
at the Batoka Gorge hydropower site on the Zambezi

(Source: Adapted from Harrison et al., 2003)

Figure 18 shows just how sensitive hydropower energy production is to changes in the
hydrological regime. Figure 18 also shows the importance of taking into account climate
change projections when designing new hydropower schemes or adding additional capacity
to existing ones.
In South Asia the hydrological regime of many rivers on which hydropower schemes are
located is driven by glacial melt water from the Himalayan mountain range region. There is
some evidence that temperatures are rising faster at higher elevations (Thompson et al.,
2000), suggesting that high mountains may be more vulnerable to climate change and this
will have a significant impact on hydrological regime of major rivers in the region such as the
Indus, the Brahmaputra and the Ganges (IRIN, 2012). However, there is conflicting evidence
relating to the melt rates of glaciers which are poorly monitored owing to their remote
location and the harsh environment for monitoring equipment (Kb et al., 2012; Gardelle et
al., 2012; Bolch et al., 2012; Immerzeel et al., 2012).

3.3.2 Sedimentation
Between 0.3% and 1.0% of the storage volume of the world's reservoir is lost annually owing
to sediment deposition (Mahmood, 1987; Morris and Fan, 1998; Basson, 2005). The annual
construction costs to replace this loss in storage capacity have been estimated to be around
US$13 billion per year and the associated environmental and social impacts would be
significant (Palmieri, 2003). The annual estimated sediment discharged per region of the
world is shown in Figure 19.

36

Figure 19 Estimated global sediment loads

(Source: Adapted from Solanki and Sem, 2010 based on data collected in 2004)

The sedimentation of hydropower dams has effect on power generation by:

Blocking power intakes

Abrasion of turbines

During the 1997 19th Congress of the International Commission on Large Dams (ICOLD),
the Sedimentation Committee (Basson, 2002) passed a resolution encouraging all member
countries to the following measures:

Develop methods for the prediction of the surface erosion rate based on rainfall and
soil properties.
Develop computer models for the simulation and prediction of reservoir
sedimentation processes

Alam (2013) describes fundamental problems with the way sediment is accounted for in the
planning for dam design and maintenance. The sediment load data are often very
approximate because:

There are large variations in sediment loads occur from day-to-day

The bed load which constitutes a considerable proportion of the sediment and the
largest particle sizes is hard to measure accurately

This often results in an underestimation of the rate of sedimentation rate (Alam, 2013).
In 2000 the World Commission on Dams (WCD) reported that a survey of dams older than
25 years showed that 10% of the projects had lost 50% or more of their live storage volume
owing to the deposition of sediment (WCD, 2000a). The Tarbela Dam in Pakistan has
experienced capacity reduction of 30% over the 40 years since it was commissioned (Roca,
2012) and plans are being made for upstream reservoirs simply to intercept sediment which
will require substantial investment.

37

Climate change will lead to changes in sediment loads owing to modifications to the
hydrological regime and an increase in flood events when the majority of sediment is
deposited (Kumar et al., 2011). An increase in sediment load will have an adverse effect on
hydropower performance by:

Increasing turbine abrasion and decreasing their efficiency

Reducing the live storage of reservoirs more quickly than originally envisaged
Reducing the degree of regulation and decreasing storage services

(Kumar et al., 2011)

If dams do not have suitable low level outlets they can act as significant sediment traps and
this can have significant impacts downstream as Box 7 illustrates.
Box 7 The impacts of the Aswan Dam in Egypt on the geomorphology of the River Nile
downstream

Virtually no sediment has been discharged from the Nile River below Aswan High Dam since
it was completed in 1970. This has resulted in significant erosion of the riverbed and banks
and retreat of its estuary (Takeuchi, 2004). The bed of the Nile, downstream of the High
Aswan Dam, has been reported to have lowered by some 2 m to 3 m since completion of the
dam, with irrigation intakes left high and dry and bridges undermined (Helland-Hansen et al.,
2005).

3.3.3 Climate variability

Climate variability is the way climate fluctuates annually above or below a long-term average
value. Climate variability affects the performance of hydropower schemes. Droughts can
particularly impact hydropower performance. For example, Kenya experienced a 25%
reduction in hydropower capacity during the 2000 drought, resulting in an estimated 1.45%
reduction in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Karekezi and Kithyoma, 2005; Karekezi et al.,
2009; HBS 2010).
Kenyas GDP is equivalent to US$29.5 billion; the estimated loss during the drought induced
power crisis in the year 2000 was about 1.45% of GDP which translates to a loss of US$442
million. This could have been used to install 295 MW of new renewable power capacity
(assuming a MW installed costs US$1.5 million per MW) (HBS, 2010). This is almost three
times the installed emergency power capacity from diesel and it is twice the loss of
hydropower during drought periods. If Kenya had invested the US$442 million in other
renewable power options the crisis could have been largely avoided (HBS, 2010).
In Uganda between 2004 and 2006, the reduction in water levels at Lake Victoria resulted in
reduction in hydropower generation by 50 MW and this led to the adjustment of the GDP
growth rate from 6.2% to 4.9% (Baanabe, 2008). The country had to turn to costly thermal
generators to ease the supply deficit. During this period, electricity supply was more
intermittent than usual, and the price of electricity increased (HBS 2010).
Table 8 details some of the impacts of droughts on hydropower generation in East Africa.
Drought related hydropower crises often lead to the installation of emergency power
generation to meet the electricity supply deficit. Examples of the cost of emergency power
installed in East Africa shows that it is expensive and leads to higher costs for consumers
as Table 9 shows.

38

Country

Period of
drought

Ethiopia

2006 to
2008

Uganda

2004 to
2005

Kenya

1998 to
2001

Mauritius

1997 to
1998
1999

Tanzania

1997

Malawi

Consequences
More than six months of power cuts were experienced owing to low water
levels in hydropower dams. Blackouts were scheduled once a week;
however, as the drought continued customers lost power for 15 hours two
days a week.
Reduction in water levels in Lake Victoria resulted in a reduction in
hydropower generation by 50 MW
A serious drought reduced hydropower generation by 25% in 2000.
Expensive fuel-based generation methods had to be used. Power rationing
was introduced between 1999 and 2001.
Engineering operations were affected by a drought. The amount of
hydropower was 6% less than in years of normal rain.
A drought led to a 70% drop in the normal annual production of hydropower.
The Mtera dam reached its lowest water level resulting in a 17% fall in
hydropower generation. Use was made of thermal generation to meet the
shortfall, as well as power rationing.

(Source: Karekezi and Kithyoma, 2008)

Table 8 The impact of droughts on hydropower generation in East Africa
Country

Rwanda
Uganda
Tanzania
Kenya

Date

2005
2006
2006
2006

Contract
duration
(years)
2
2
2
1

Energy
capacity (MW)
15
100
180
100

Percentage of
total installed
capacity
48%
42%
20%
8%

Estimated cost as a
percentage of GDP
1.84%
3.29%
0.96%
1.45%

(Source: Everhard et al., 2008)

Table 9 Cost of installing additional generating capacity as a result of droughts affecting
hydropower generation in East Africa

3.4 Climate change

Numerous studies have indicated that hydropower economics are sensitive to changes in
precipitation and runoff (Alavian et al. 2009; Gjermundsen and Jenssen 2001; Mimikou and
Baltas 1997; Harrison and Whitington 2001, 2003). Climate change will affect two important
climatic variables that affect hydropower performance, these are:

Precipitation
Temperature

Figure 20 shows the ways in which changes in precipitation and temperature, will affect
hydropower performance.

39

Figure 20 Flow chart of climate change effects on hydropower performance

Most hydropower projects are designed on the basis of recent climate history (typically a 30
to 50 year historical time series of flow data) and the assumption that future hydrological
patterns (average annual flows and their variability) will follow historical patterns, this is
known in statistics as stationarity (WCD, 2000a; WMO, 2008; March et al., 2008). This
notion that hydrological patterns will remain stationary (unchanged) in the future, however,
is no longer valid (Milly et al. 2008). Under future climate scenarios, a hydropower station
designed and operated based on the past centurys record of flows is unlikely to deliver the
expected services over its lifetime (IPCC, 2011). It may be over-designed relative to
expected future water balances and droughts, as well as under-designed relative to the
probability of extreme inflow events in the future.
In Africa, the electricity supply in a several countries (e.g. Ethiopia, Malawi, Zimbabwe,
Zambia) is largely based on hydropower. However, there are few studies available that
examine the impacts of climate change on hydropower resource potential in Africa (Kumar et
al., 2011). The median of 12 climate model projections point to a reduction in hydropower
resource potential with the exception of East Africa (Hamududu and Killingtveit, 2010).
In major hydropower-generating Asian countries such as China, India and Tajikistan future
reductions in runoff, owing to climate change, have been could potentially significant reduce
hydropower output (Kumar et al., 2011). An increased probability of landslides and glacial
lake outburst floods (GLOFs), and impacts of increased variability, are of particular concern
to Himalayan countries (Agrawala et al., 2003). The possibility of accommodating increased
intensity of seasonal precipitation by increasing storage capacities may become particularly
important (Iimi, 2007).
To understand how climate change will affect hydropower generation it is necessary to
consider the ways in which characteristics of hydropower schemes affect their vulnerability
to climate change. Blackshear et al. created a framework that shows the relative changes in
generation capacity owing to climate change. This is shown in Figure 21. They used this
framework as a simple screening tool (Blackshear et al., 2011). Blackshear et al. looked at

40

how large storage hydropower schemes on the River Mekong in South East Asia could be
affected by climate change in the short-term (i.e. the next 20 to 30 years). Using the
framework shown in Figure 21, Blackshear et al. predicted that hydropower on the Mekong
River will probably not suffer a significant decrease in generation capacity owing to climate
change impacts in the short term (Blackshear et al, 2011). The results of applying this
screening framework on the River Mekong are shown in Figure 22.
Figure 21 The effect of climate change on different aspects of hydropower performance

Note:

Discharge, temporal variability and glacial melt do not apply to pure pump storage schemes
that are not connected to rivers
Evaporation is only applicable to the reservoir surface area to volume ratio

(Source: Adapted from Blackshear et al., 2011)

41

Figure 22 Application of a simple framework to assess the impacts of climate change on

hydropower performance in the Mekong River catchment

(Source: Adapted from Blackshear et al., 2011)

Although a simple framework such as the one developed by Blackshear et al. (2011) may be
of use as a simple screening tool to provide an overview of climate change impacts, such is
the sensitivity of hydropower performance to climate change that a more detailed analysis of
climate change impacts should be undertaken even at a pre-feasibility level study. However,
this often does not take place. A recent scoping study conducted for the World Bank by
Vattenfall Power Consultant (Rydgren et al. 2007), for example, noted: Most
hydropower/reservoir operators do not see climate change as a particularly serious threat.
The existing hydrological variability is more of a concern, and the financially relevant
planning horizons are short enough that with variability being much larger than predicted
changes, the latter do not seem decisive for planning (Rydgren et al. 2007).
Harrison et al. looked to set the impact of climate change on the net present value (NPV) of
the proposed Batoka Gorge hydropower project on the Zambezi river in southern Africa in
context with other key project parameters (Harrison et al., 2003). Hydropower projects
involving dams, are prone to cost and programme overruns (WCD, 2000a). In addition to
extending the period where there is no revenue associated with scheme, in the intervening
period the price of electricity may change or the generating station may default on an
electricity supply contract (Harrison et al., 2003). Harrison et al. selected important project

42

parameters including changes in precipitation to test the sensitivity of the NPV of the Batoka
Gorge hydropower project to these. These parameters included:

Civil engineering costs because they represent the main capital cost and inaccurate
estimates of these having a significant impact on project returns
Construction period, which affects the amount of loan interest capitalised
Electricity tariffs
Discount rates
Changes in rainfall under climate change

(Harrison et al., 2003)

Each parameter was changed, in turn, by 20% from its original value and the change in
NPV calculated (Harrison et al., 2003).
Harrison et al. found that the Net Present Value (NPV) of the proposed Batoka Gorge
hydropower scheme is most sensitive to changes in discount rate with increases reducing
the present worth of future sales income. The next most sensitive variable was found to be
the electricity tariff, followed by the civil engineering costs and length of the construction
period (Harrison et al., 2003). This is shown in Figure 23. Decreases in the tariff price or
increased construction cost and construction programme reduced the financial performance.
However, the sensitivity to changes in precipitation as the result of climate change was
found to be of a similar magnitude to both the discount rate and tariff (Harrison, 2003) as
shown in Figure 23. Harrison et al. conclude that this adds credibility to the view that funding
agencies should take into account the effects of this uncontrollable risk factor i.e. climate
change (Harrison et al., 2003).
Mukheibir confirms that limited information exists on the impact of climate change on the
viability of the hydropower schemes (Mukheibir, 2007). Mukheibir used the results of two
regional climate models to make a qualitative assessment of the impacts of the possible
impacts of climate change in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Mozambique. The
results are shown in Figure 24. However, Mukheibir concludes that specific studies are
required to ascertain the magnitude of the impacts. The consideration of specific adaptation
interventions at design and operation stages will need to be based on the projections from
regional climate models (Mukheibir, 2007).

43

Figure 23 Variation of the net present value of proposed Batoka Gorge hydropower project on
the Zambezi with changes to key project parameter and climate change

(Source: Adapted from Harrison et al., 2003)

Figure 24 Potential impacts of climate change on hydropower in the Democratic Republic of
the Congo and Mozambique

(Source: Adapted from Mukheibir, 2007)

Figure 25 shows the trap that many low income countries are stuck in when it comes to
responding to what appears to be climate change induced drought that affects the
hydropower power sector. To conclude making decisions on how to operate existing and
design new hydropower schemes are becoming increasingly uncertain as a result of climate
44

change. There is a need to have global climate change projections downscaled to an

appropriate scale and incorporate climate change uncertainty in the design of new
hydropower schemes to make sure that they are resilient to future changes.
Figure 25 The vicious circle of the impacts of climate change reducing electricity production in
countries reliant on hydropower

(Source: Adapted from HBS, 2010)

3.5 Availability of hydrological data

Knowledge of the hydrological regime of a region is a vital prerequisite for all work in
hydrology including for hydropower schemes. Data availability can be considered from two
separate points of view:

Technical: This is related to the actual capability of national hydrological services

and other bodies to collect, archive and manage data and information which meet
their needs, as well as those of other users;
Policy: this is related to the willingness of the data owners to make the data
available to other users (Abrate, 1999)

While it is widely accepted that such data and information are required for several purposes,
a decline has been identified in the systems responsible for the collection of water resources
information during the last two decades (Abrate, 1999). This is illustrated by the decline in
operational rainfall stations in the Zambezi River catchment upstream of Tete in
Mozambique (an area of some 1 million km2) shown in Figure 26. Estimates of the
hydrological yield of catchments can be greatly improved through coordinated collection of

45

hydrological and meteorological data and dissemination of those data to developers (Haney
and Plummer, 2008).
Figure 26 Number of operational rainfall stations in the Zambezi River catchment upstream of
Tete in Mozambique

(Source: Adapted from Kling et al., 2014)

3.6 Operation and maintenance

Operation and maintenance costs are relatively low for hydropower plants compared to
other forms of power generation (IRENA, 2012). An average value for operation and
maintenance costs of 2.0% to 2.5% is considered the norm for large-scale hydropower
projects (IPCC, 2011; Branche, 2011). However, many low income countries struggle to
meet standard maintenance schedules through lack of resources which then leads to loss of
performance (see Ministry of Energy Sierra Leone, 2012; IRENA, 2012). Required operation
and maintenance varies widely, according to the schemes location, capacity factor,
generation strategy, whether the station is manned or unmanned, whether it is a storage or
run of river scheme, the annual production, the number of starts and stops, as well as
numerous other factors.
A review of North American experience showed that a typical level of annual operations and
maintenance spending on a 100 MW hydropower station would be US$2.1 million. This
could be reduced to US$1.2 million in best practice cases (Goldberg and Lier, 2011). A
separate study suggests that, based on North American evidence, operation and
maintenance costs increase over time (WCD, 2000a).
Underfunded and neglected operation and maintenance reduces power output and shortens
the life of the plant (IPCC, 2011). In systems with adequate spare capacity outages of plant
components can be planned, for their inspection and, if necessary, repair and replacement.
However, it is more common for systems in low income countries to have little capacity to
spare for this routine rehabilitation, in which case a plant is operated until it breaks down,
forcing costly outages (IRENA, 2012).
Another dimension is that equipment from OECD countries tends to be more expensive than
equipment imported from China and India (IRENA, 2011). The quality, energy yield and the
operation and maintenance costs of equipment may also vary significantly. Given some of
the capacity and skills gaps in the operations and maintenance areas, there is an important

46

trade-off to be made (IRENA, 2011). More work is required to assess these trade-offs and
establish their effect on enhancing the improvements of hydropower schemes.

3.7 Multi-purpose and single purpose schemes

Whether a hydropower scheme is designed to be multi- or single purpose will have an
impact on its performance. Compared to single purpose schemes, multipurpose hydropower
projects can have an enabling role by providing drinking water supply, irrigation, flood control
and navigation services. Multipurpose schemes can enhance a countrys ability to adapt to
climate change induced hydrological variability (World Bank, 2009). However, compared to
single purpose schemes, multiple use hydropower schemes may increase the potential for
conflicts and reduce energy production in times of low water levels (Kumar et al., 2011).
Many large catchments are shared by several nations, hence regional and international
cooperation is crucial to reach consensus on dam and river management. An independent
review by the South Asia Water Initiative (SAWI) in 2012 confirmed that the complex longterm water resources challenges in South Asia can only be addressed through regional,
trans-boundary action driven by a shared understanding of potential benefits (SAWI, 2013).
Harmonious and economically optimal operation of multipurpose schemes may involve
trade-offs between the various uses, including hydropower generation (Kumar et al., 2011).

47

SECTION 4
Enhancing the performance of hydropower
4.1 Introduction
There are numerous ways in which the performance of existing and greenfield hydropower
schemes can be enhanced including:

Strengthening and improving the planning process

Rehabilitation of existing hydropower infrastructure
Enhancing the operation of existing hydropower infrastructure
Management of sediment
Use of recent innovations in hydropower technology
Improvements in stakeholder engagement
Utilisation of greenhouse gas emissions from hydropower reservoirs

4.2 Strengthening and improving the planning process at a

catchment level
Planning for hydropower development has traditionally been oriented toward individual
projects. However, this approach does not always allow hydropower to address multiple
needs and requirements. Addressed early in the planning process, hydropower
infrastructure offers multiple opportunities for local development such as investments in
roads, social infrastructure, communications, and skill building in large projects can be
leveraged to support local or regional economic development or to anchor growth poles
across economic zones (World Bank, 2009).
There is evidence that adopting a holistic approach to hydropower planning at the basin
level can yield important benefits. A recent study of two river catchments in the states of
Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand in northern India came to the following conclusion:
Planning for hydropower development needs to evolve from a project-based engineering
approach to a more holistic one, an approach incorporating river basin planning and
integrating potential social and environmental issues across multiple projects and the entire
river basin. Such a framework would help to optimise the benefits and minimise the costs
(Haney and Plummer, 2008).
These two catchments in India have ambitious plans for developing a number of hydropower
sites, including some earmarked for private developers. However, many of these are likely to
be new and untested for the challenges facing them (Haney and Plummer, 2008). A projectby-project approach will not take sufficient account of the system-wide aspects of multiple
hydropower projects along the same river. The performance of the projects is likely to be
enhanced by the use of catchment-wide modelling, coordinated operational protocols, and
catchment and environmental protection. Likewise for the anticipation of risks from
fluctuations in flow and cumulative flooding.
Planning can be strengthened by supporting governments in understanding the strategic
value of hydropower through integrated cross-sectoral planning, identification of strategic
storage sites, improvement of hydrological data and analysis, and mainstreaming
48

hydropower into climate-change programmes. A significant increase in funds and technical

assistance for prefeasibility studies is recommended to develop pipelines of quality projects
(Haney and Plummer, 2008).

4.3 Rehabilitation of existing hydropower infrastructure

In 2011 Lier and Goldberg completed a study looking at the rehabilitation of existing
hydropower infrastructure for the World Bank. Lier and Golberg looked at two investment
scenarios with respect to the rehabilitation of hydropower schemes:

Life extension to the existing facilities to restore their initial performances. This
usually includes the replacement of equipment on a like for like basis where there is
minimum effort to enhance the overall output of the scheme
Upgrade of the scheme (e.g. efficiency, output) which yields greater output but at
increased costs which is justified by the additional revenue over the service life of the
equipment (Lier and Goldberg, 2011)

The impact of these two investment scenarios on energy production are shown in Figure 27.
Figure 27 Illustration of the impacts of an upgrade versus a life extension on energy
production of a hydropower scheme

(Source: Adapted from Lier and Goldberg, 2011)

Lier and Goldberg developed a screening tool to assess the economic rehabilitation of
hydropower schemes in Africa and Central America. In Africa, a total of 73 plants were
indicated to have economic rehabilitation potential. Of these 25 are plants with a capacity of
less than 50 MW but more than 10 MW, 35 plants between 51 and 250 MW and 13 plants of
greater than 250 MW (Lier and Goldberg, 2011). Within the next decade, it has been
estimated that about 16,500 MW of hydropower generation capacity will need to be
rehabilitated in Africa (Lier and Goldberg, 2011).
Lier and Goldberg state that there is no real dichotomy between true greenfield hydropower
projects and hydropower rehabilitation operations in terms of providing renewable energy to
power systems. When major new sources of renewable energy are needed in areas where
good dam or run-of-river sites are available, greenfield developments of various

49

configurations must be considered. Rehabilitation is first about retaining and preserving what
is already functioning, and then about possible incremental increases in capacity at existing
sites, hopefully at reasonable cost and with minimal delay (Lier and Goldberg, 2011). Box 8
provides a summary of the effects of rehabilitation for a hydropower scheme in Nepal.
Box 8 The impacts of rehabilitation on power generation for the Trushuli-Devighat hydropower
scheme in Nepal

In Nepal, modifications to the intake, provision of an extra de-sander, dredging the forebay
and refurbishing the generators/turbines and power house control systems at the TrushuliDevighat hydropower station in 1995 improved average annual power generation by 46%
from 194 to 284 GWh a year.
(World Commission on Dams, 2000)

4.4 Enhancing the operation of existing hydropower infrastructure

This section provides a brief overview of how the operation of existing hydropower plants
can be improved.

4.4.1 The use of flow forecasting to increase electricity generation

The amount of electricity generated by a storage-based hydropower scheme can be
increased at a given plant by optimising the way in which the reservoir is operated. Improved
forecasts of flows combined with optimization models can also help to improve operation and
water use, increasing the energy output from existing power plants significantly (Kumar et
al., 2011)
Flow forecasting has been widely used to manage reservoir storage levels effectively and
avoid spills; however, it requires a good network of monitoring stations which is often lacking
in low income countries. New methods related to large-scale climatic systems can help to
forecast seasonal flows using global datasets. There are many examples in the literature of
rainfall and flow/flood forecasting that are used to improve the performance of multi-purpose
and hydropower reservoirs (see Westphal et al., 2003, Mao et al., 2000, Lima and Lall, 2010,
Connelly et al., 1999, Boucher et al., 2012, French et al., 1992, Palmer and Anderson,
1994). Most commonly in relation to dams, flood forecasts are used to manage storage in
the reservoir so that incoming floods do not cause the dam spillway to be used unless
unavoidable.
Flow forecasting can also be based on long-range weather forecasts and systems such as
the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) with a view to
managing water resources (UNESCO-IHE, 2011). Even knowing whether it is likely to be a
particularly wet or dry season can help to enhance hydropower operation. Methods have
been developed for forecasting flows one, three and six months ahead into the Cahora
Bassa hydropower reservoir in Mozambique (Jensen, 2013; Kling et al., 2014).
Sankarasubramanian et al. (2009) suggest the use of probabilistic climate forecasts based
on large scale weather systems could improve the performance of hydropower schemes in
the semi-arid region of north-east Brazil which has been subjected to regular droughts.

4.4.2 Mitigating social and environmental impacts

The social and environmental impacts of hydropower schemes can be ameliorated by
changing the way in which the scheme has been traditionally operated (Konrad et al., 2012,
Richter and Thomas, 2007, Watts et al., 2010). This is known as re-operation. The re-

50

operation of a scheme effectively means changing release rates or timing of releases to

reduce negative impacts downstream. The intention would normally be to try and minimise
losses to hydropower production whilst increasing environmental flows. For example, as part
of re-operating dams, flood pulse release gates are sometimes retrofitted. These allow
sediment to be flushed through the reservoir to reduce its build-up; and to provide a flood
wave downstream of benefit to downstream flora and fauna, as well as agriculture.

4.5 Sediment management

There are four main sediment management techniques for hydropower dams. These are
shown in Figure 28 and outlined below.
Figure 28 Sediment management techniques for hydropower schemes

Minimising sediment entering the reservoir

Catchment management - These can include reforestation and changes to tillage

practices including contour farming, ridge and furrow farming to reduce the sediment
load entering the stream. On large catchments these measures can take some time
to take effect
Upstream sediment traps - These are structural measures to trap sediment;
however, for large dams these measures are generally not effective owing to the size
of the trap needed
Location of the reservoir off stream This is generally not feasible for a
hydropower scheme
Restoring, constructing and enhancing wetlands This helps to trap sediment

Minimising deposition in the reservoir

Sediment pass through and by-passing - Rivers carry most of the annual
sediment load during the flood season. Allowing the sediment to pass through sluice
gates such as is the case for Roseires Dam on the Blue Nile in Sudan or bypass the
dam through a channel or tunnel can help to prevent reservoir sedimentation.

51

Hydrosuction by-pass - This allows the sediment to by-pass the reservoirs using
the hydraulic head represented by the difference between the water levels upstream
and downstream from the dam. This requires a permanent inlet station upstream of
the reservoir to collect the sediment into a pipe. The sediment/water mixture is
transported through the pipeline and past the dam, where it is returned to
downstream receiving waters

Removing sediment from the reservoir

Schneider and Zenz (2013) describe sediment flushing and dredging as the most common
methods of regaining storage lost to sediment in reservoirs worldwide. These are detailed
below:

Flushing - This is the operation whereby previously accumulated sediment is

removed via accelerated flows that can be achieved by drawing down the reservoir.
However, this can have negative ecological impacts downstream (Schneider and
Zenz, 2013)
Dredging and excavation - There are various forms of dredging that can be carried
out. However, for large hydropower schemes, such as Tarbela Dam in Pakistan,
these are often found not to be economically feasible (Rashid et al., 2014)

Compensate for sediment accumulated in the reservoir

This can include:

Raising the dam

Abandoning the dam and constructing a new one
Reconstruction of the dam wall to include low-level sluices
Changes to the operation of the dam

Box 9 details an example where payment levels for ecosystem services to reduce
sedimentation for a hydropower scheme in Cambodia have been evaluated.

52

Box 9 Use of payment for ecosystems services to reduce sedimentation in hydropower dams

The conservation of forest cover can reduce soil erosion and contribute to extending the
economic life span of a hydropower facility. The cost of forest conservation can be viewed as
an investment in hydropower and be financed via a payment for ecosystem services
scheme. Arias et al. applied a modelling framework to estimate payments for forest
conservation consisting of:

Land-use change projection

Catchment erosion modelling
Reservoir sedimentation estimation
Power generation loss calculation
Payment for ecosystems services scheme design

The framework was applied to a proposed hydropower dam, Pursat 1, in Cambodia. The
estimated net present value of forest conservation was US$4.7 million when using average
annual climate values over 100 years, or US$6.4 million when considering droughts every
eight years. This can be remunerated with annual payments of US$4.26/ha or US$5.78/ha
respectively, covering forest protection costs estimated at US$ 0.9/ha/year. The application
of this type of payment for ecosystem services represents one to minimise sedimentation of
hydropower schemes in catchments susceptible to erosion.
(Arias et al., 2011)

4.6 Recent innovations in hydropower technology

4.6.1 Introduction
The potential exists to increase the energy generated by existing hydropower schemes by
retrofitting them with new equipment with improved efficiency and an increased capacity.
Most of the existing hydropower equipment in operation today will need to be modernised
during the next 30 years meaning that there is an opportunity to improve efficiency and
achieve higher power and energy output (UNWWAP, 2006) whilst at the same time
enhancing their performance with respect to the environment (Kumar et al., 2011). The
structural elements of a large hydropower project, tend to form up to 70% of the initial
investment costs and often have a projected life of up to 100 years or more (UNWWAP,
2006; Kumar et al., 2011). However, the refurbishment or replacement of key equipment
such as turbines can be an attractive option after 30 years of operation (Kumar et al., 2011).
A brief description of innovations in hydropower technology that can improve new and
existing schemes performances are detailed below.

4.6.2 Variable-speed turbines

Usually, hydropower turbines are optimised for a fixed operating point defined by speed,
head and discharge. At fixed-speed operation, any head or discharge deviation involves
some decrease in efficiency (Kumar et al., 2011). The application of variable-speed
generation in hydropower plants offers a number of advantages, based on the greater
flexibility of the turbine operation in situations where the flow or the head are substantially
different from their nominal values (Kumar et al., 2011). In addition to improved efficiency,
the abrasion from silt in the water can also be reduced. Substantial increases in production
in comparison to a fixed-speed plant have been found in simulation studies (Terens and
Schafer, 1993; Fraile et al., 2006).

53

4.6.3 Fish-friendly turbines

Fish-friendly turbines are an emerging technology that provides a safe approach for fish
passing though low-head hydraulic turbines by minimizing the risk of injury or death (Cada,
2001). While conventional hydropower turbine technologies focus solely on generating
electricity, a fish-friendly turbine brings about benefits for both power generation and
protection of fish species. Alden Research Laboratory in the USA has already carried out
physical model tests for turbines using live fish. The fish mortality rate for these types of
turbine is very low. The slower rotating turbine has just three blades, improving fish survival
without a loss of generation (Hydroworld, 2010).

4.6.4 Improvements in materials

Corrosion, cavitation damages and abrasion are major wearing effects on hydropower
equipment. Improvements in material can help to extend lifespan, examples include:

Penstocks made of fibreglass

Better corrosion protection systems for hydro-mechanical equipment
Better understanding of electrochemical corrosion leading to a suitable material
combination
Trash rack systems with plastic slide rails

(Kumar et al., 2011)

Erosive wear of hydropower turbines is a complex phenomenon, depending on different

parameters such as particle size, density and hardness, concentration, velocity of water and
base material properties. The efficiency of the turbine decreases with the increase in the
erosive wear (Kumar et al., 2011). Various recently developed coating are currently
available that can improve a turbines life (see Cateni and Magri, 2008).

4.6.5 Tunnelling technology

Recently, new equipment to drill small tunnels (i.e. 0.7 m to 1.3 m in diameter) based on oildrilling technology has been developed and tested (Kumar et al., 2011). This means that in
the future directional drilling6 of penstocks for small hydropower directly from the power
station up to intakes, up to 1 km or more from the power station could be constructed
(Jensen, 2009). This could help to lower costs and reduce the environmental and visual
impacts from above-ground penstocks for small hydropower, and open up more sites for
small hydropower (Kumar et al., 2011).

4.6.6 Use of small scale hydropower

Comprehensive and accurate information regarding global small hydropower potential and
development has not been available to date (Liu et al, 2013). A UNIDO report in 2013
entitled World small hydropower development report7 concluded that small hydropower is
a suitable renewable energy technology in the context of rural electrification efforts, energy
diversification, industrial development and exploration of existing infrastructure. Rural
electrification has significantly improved in China and in India thanks to small hydropower. At
the national-level, small hydropower programmes in developing regions and at regional level
in western Africa, have reflected the importance given by some governments to small
6

54

Directional drilling is defined as the practice of controlling the direction and deviation of a
wellbore to a predetermined underground target or location.
Within the World Small Hydropower Development Report 2013 small hydropower is defined
as plants with a capacity of up to 10 MW.

hydropower as an energy solution for rural electrification and productive use (Lui et al.,
2013). However, more work needs to be done to assess the costs and environmental
impacts of small hydropower schemes on poor communities in low income countries.

4.7 Utilisation of greenhouse gas emissions from hydropower

reservoirs
As detailed in Section 2.6 over the past decade many researchers have shown that
reservoirs located in the tropics may release appreciable quantities of greenhouse gases in
the form of methane to the atmosphere. Ramos et al. have recently explored the use of low
cost, innovative mitigation and recovery strategies not only to reduce these emissions but
also allow the methane released to be used as a renewable energy source (Ramos et al.,
2009). Ramos et al have shown that although more research is needed such techniques
appear to be both technically and economically feasible (Ramos et al., 2009). The
technology involves piping gas-rich water up from the depths of the reservoir and allowing
the gas to be released in a controlled manner, capturing it for energy generation. Lima et al.
(2008) carried out research showing that globally 93 to 107 million tonnes of methane could
be available in this way for use as a renewable energy source. From a political perspective
it would also allow large hydropower schemes located in tropical regions to fulfil the Kyoto
Protocol Clean Development Mechanism.

4.8 Improved stakeholder engagement and local benefit sharing

Stakeholder involvement is now widely accepted as a pre-requisite for successful water
resources planning and development (Reed and Kasprzyk, 2009) although its effective
implementation is by no means a simple task (Swallow et al., 2006, Carr et al., 2012, Hauck
and Youkhana, 2010, Taddei, 2011). According to Dore and Lebel (2010) risk assessment
should be a political process, rather than a purely technical one as the technical
simplifications and engineering assumptions which are often necessary provide lee-way for
vested interests and bias. Stakeholder engagement has been shown to usually occur in the
middle stages of hydropower projects, rather than throughout (Petkova et al., 2002). Such
projects cannot be stakeholder led, and it is unlikely that they involve comprehensive
options assessment.
For the local communities to reap the benefits of hydropower schemes it is important that
there is local benefit sharing. Local benefit sharing in hydropower projects can be defined as
the systematic efforts by project proponents to sustainably benefit local communities
affected by hydropower investments (Wang, 2012). Stakeholder engagement is essential in
initiating and designing benefit sharing programmes. Monetary benefit sharing and nonmonetary mechanisms are commonly used in benefit sharing in hydropower projects.
Monetary benefit sharing means sharing part of the monetary flows generated by the
operation of the hydropower projects with local communities (e.g. preferential electricity
tariffs, community development fund, revenue sharing). Non-monetary local benefits can
include improved infrastructure, support for health and education programmes, improved
access to fisheries and forests, and legal title to land (Wang, 2012).
A well-designed benefit sharing programme should have:

Clear objectives
Carefully define the target population
Include benefit sharing mechanisms
Identify responsible agencies, as well as implementation arrangements

(Wang, 2012)

55

The World Bank has recently produced a guide for local benefit sharing on hydropower
projects (see Wang, 2012). Improved stakeholder engagement and a well-designed local
benefit sharing programme can help to maintain performance levels and revenue flows from
hydropower assets in the long term, as well as ensuring local communities become longterm partners in sustainable management of hydropower assets (Wang, 2012).

56

SECTION 5
Hydropower and the water - energy - food
security nexus
5.1 Introduction
Water, energy and food supply systems are inter-connected and benefits from hydropower
schemes normally trade-off against benefits for different sectors (e.g. domestic water supply,
industrial water supply, irrigation, groups of people, different parts of the environment (e.g.
aquatic and terrestrial). Interactions between the systems (e.g. built and natural) providing
water, energy and food have recently come under increasing scrutiny owing to the
recognition of their ability to impact on each other and especially in a world with increasing
competition for resources.
Increasing populations increase demands for water, energy and food. Water and wastewater
treatment and distribution require large amounts of energy. Food and energy production
require large amounts of water. Food production at an industrial scale requires large energy
inputs and with the advent of biofuels, food and energy crops can compete for the same
land, and water. Globally, additional factors include changing dietary patterns towards
greater protein consumption in emerging economies such as Brazil, India and China,
widespread environmental degradation, biodiversity loss and climate change. Meat
production requires far more water per kilogramme than crops, for example (Lindstrm and
Granit, 2013).
It is difficult to assess the trade of involved especially from the perspective of how and where
international funding agencies should invest to benefit the urban and rural poor. For
example, in hydropower schemes that use large storage reservoirs the water that is passed
through turbines has an opportunity cost depending on the season and timing, and in some
cases could disrupt or prevent other users by farmers or cities. The trade-offs that have to be
made are further complicated by the climate change and the uncertainties that it introduces.
The central message of the DFID topic guide on Adaptation: Decision making under
uncertainty (see Ranger, 2013) is that accounting for the changing and uncertain climate
need not be complicated and should not paralyse action. This chapter reviews the relatively
limited amount of work with respect to hydropower that has been carried out in relation to its
place in the water energy food security nexus and methods via which co-benefits and
trade-offs can be assessed.
There are different approaches available to explore hydropower performance in the broader
context of water energy food security. A large number of research studies make use of
detailed quantitative hydrological, water resource, crop production and economic modelling
at the catchment scale. However, the timescales of this study and the data available means
that this study has been based on literature and previous modelling studies, where possible
using these to illustrate the sensitivity of hydropower production to future climate change
scenarios or the potential economic implications.
The framework adopted for this study for assessing hydropower performance within the
water food energy nexus is shown in Figure 29. Figure 30 shows an example of some of

57

the key linkages between hydropower performance, water resources, energy and food
systems. These linkages have been explored as part of this literature review.
Figure 29 A framework for assessing hydropower performance in the context of the water
energy food nexus

Figure 30 An example of some of the key linkages between hydropower performance, water
resources, energy and food systems

58

5.2 A comparison of hydropower with other power generation

technologies
5.2.1 Introduction
Figure 31 shows a simple representation of present day electricity supply and demand
options. There are three general ways to improve the delivery of electricity services:

Demand-side management options that are generally related to reducing demand

Supply-side efficiency measures, concerned with how efficiently electricity is
generated by the supplier and transmitted and distributed to users
New supply options that either replace existing generation options or supply
incremental growth in demand beyond what can be achieved by options in the first
two categories (WCD, 2000a)

Hydropower is just one of many ways in which the electricity demand can be met. In terms of
electricity supply the following choices need to be made between:

Type of power generation (e.g. thermal, hydropower, wind)

Extending the existing main grid, setting up isolated networks or setting up home
systems
Implementing demand management measures such as load shedding and supplysided measures (i.e. increasing power generation)

It is currently challenging to compare hydropower with other methods of power generation

just within the energy sector because of the limited information available on technical issues
such as:

kWh of power generated per US$ of investment

Greenhouse gas emissions over the cycle of the scheme
Water use per kWh of power generated
Capital, as well operation and maintenance costs
Number of beneficiaries
Social and environmental impacts

The above should be relatively simple to measure; however, this is often not the case and
there is often a lack of consensus on the figures for the above subjects. This is without the
further complication that in many countries the regulatory environment has changed several
times in the past 30 years This often makes private investors cautious, especially where the
initial fiscal and licensing regime turns out to have been too generous to the licensees and
results in changes in policies and regulations that disadvantage the original investors.
Development of the hydropower sector according to the generation plan of the Southern
African Power Pool (NEXANT 2007), for example, will require an investment of US$10.7
billion over an estimated 15 year period. However, researchers such as Hankins argues that
a comparable investment in energy efficiency and renewable technologies including
biomass, solar, wind, and small-scale hydropower, would aggressively expand decentralised
(on- and off-grid), clean energy access and markets in Africa (Hankins, 2009).

59

Figure 31 Schematic diagram of electricity supply and demand options

(Source: Adapted from WCD, 2000a)

This section focuses on the following technical variables and the challenges of comparing
hydropower schemes with other electricity generation methods:

Levelised costs of power generation

Water use
Greenhouse gas

5.2.2 Levelised costs of power generation

Figure 32 shows the global levelised costs of power generation for the first quarter of 2013.
The general levelised cost of power generation is the average cost of power from a new
generating plant over its entire lifetime of service (Eschenbach, 2014). The use of levelised
costs allows a comparison of various sources of power production to be compared on an
equal footing an even basis (Eschenbach, 2014). The World Bank states that capital costs
for hydropower are high compared with alternative energy options, and the financial risk of
over-design is significant (World Bank 2010). However, Figure 32 indicates that the global
levelised costs of hydropower generation compare well with other forms of energy, apart
from new gas and coal fired power stations.

60

Figure 32 Global levelised costs of power generation for the first quarter of 2013 for a range of
power generation techniques

(Source: IEA, 2013b)

However, it is important to note that the competitiveness of renewables, such as

hydropower, depends on the market and policy framework within which they operate (IEA,
2013b). Policy, market and technology risks can undermine project viability even when
resources are good and technology costs are favourable (IEA, 2013b). Policy uncertainty is
chief among these risks, but non-economic barriers, integration challenges, counterparty
risk, and macroeconomic and currency risks can all increase financing costs and weigh upon
investments (IEA, 2013b). It is often difficult to take into account these factors when carrying
out a trade-off assessment within the water energy food nexus.

5.2.3 Water use

Table 10 compares the average blue water footprint with other forms of energy with
hydropower. The blue water footprint refers to consumption of blue water resources (i.e.
surface and groundwater) along the supply chain of a product (Hoekstra et al., 2011). The
green water footprint refers to consumption of green water resources (i.e. rainwater that
does not become runoff). The grey water footprint refers to pollution and is defined as the
volume of freshwater that is required to assimilate the load of pollutants given natural
background concentrations and existing water quality standards (Hoekstra et al., 2011).
Hydropower generation has historically been considered as a non-consumptive water user;
however, the research carried out by Mekonnen and Hoekstra indicates that hydropower is a
relatively large consumptive user of water compared to other sources of energy and relative
to food production (Mekonnen and Hoekstra, 2012).

61

Solar

Wind

Bio-electricity

Hydropower

Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Blue water
footprint
~0
~0
0 to 150
245
~4
~4
~4
3
(m /MWh)
Note: The water footprint of the hydropower schemes studied by Mekonnen and Hoekstra varied
3
3
from 1 m /MWh for San Carlos in Colombia to approximately 3,000 m /MWh for AkosomboKpong in Ghana.
3
The value for hydropower of 245 m /MWh represents an average for 35 studied sites
worldwide.
The blue water footprint of bio-electricity is dependent on the crop.
(Source: Adapted from Gerbens-Leenes et al., 2008; Mekonnen and Hoekstra, 2012; Raadal et al.,
2011; Rodriguez et al., 2013)
Table 10 Blue water footprint for the production of electricity from various sources of energy

The blue water footprint of hydropower schemes will vary significantly depending on a
variety of factors (e.g. reservoir volume to surface area ratio, climate). The blue water
footprint of hydropower schemes rarely appears to be assessed at the planning stage of
schemes. An estimation of this blue footprint would allow straightforward comparisons to be
made with the green-blue green footprint of irrigated agricultural water and the blue water
footprint of industries. A conceptual model for estimating the green and blue water footprints
of different users of water in relation to the water balance of a river catchment is shown in
Figure 33.
Figure 33 The green and blue water footprint in relation to the water balance of a catchment
area

(Source: Hoekstra et al., 2011)

62

It should be noted that the water productivity of agriculture is usually calculated per
kilogramme of product, sometimes also per kilocalorie; however, it seldom takes into
account the nutritional content of food products, which is also important for food security
(SEI, 2011). Energy productivity in agriculture also requires further research. For example,
there is conflicting evidence about the positive or negative energy balance of different
biofuels (SEI, 2011). There have been limited studies carried out to assess the energy
required for irrigation. A summary of the energy use per hectare required for irrigation from
studies carried out in different countries is shown in Figure 34.
Figure 34 Energy use for irrigated agriculture based on studies carried out in various countries

(Source: Rothausen and Conway, 2011)

5.2.4 Greenhouse gas emissions

Electricity production is a challenging issue when it comes to mitigating greenhouse gas
emissions without jeopardising development goals (Mendona et al., 2012). Figure 35
shows the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions from hydropower schemes compared with
other forms of electricity generation systems. However, many of the hydropower schemes
that Raadal et al (2011) researched are in temperate regions such as North America and
Europe. Researchers tend to agree that hydropower schemes located in tropical regions
emitted more greenhouse gases than those found in cooler parts of the world (Mendoa et
al., 2012).
It is desirable for greenhouse gas emissions under national, regional and international
mitigation policies to be accounted for over its entire life cycle (Weisser, 2008). However, as
indicated above there is still much discussion amongst researcher as to how the greenhouse
gas emissions of large hydropower storage schemes in the tropics can be accurately
estimated.
Improving the accuracy of estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from hydropower
schemes would help to make comparisons with irrigable agriculture in terms of emissions.
Recent research has estimated that food systems contribute 19% to 29% of global
anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (Vermeulen et al., 2012). Agricultural production,

63

including indirect emissions associated with land-cover change, has been estimated to
contribute 80% to 86% of total food system emissions, with significant regional variation
(Vermeulen et al., 2012).

5.2.5 The challenges of comparing different power generation technologies

The above sections show that even just within the energy sector international funding
agencies and investors face a number of challenges when comparing the performance
indicators of different power generation technologies. There is often disagreement between
different organisations with respect to the water footprint, greenhouse gas emissions and
costs per unit of power of different power generation technologies. Assessing the position of
hydropower within the energy sector is challenging, hence assessing the position of
hydropower within the water energy food nexus adds two more dimensions of
complexity. Methods by which hydropower can be assessed within these additional
dimensions are briefly discussed below.
Figure 35 Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions from hydropower schemes compared with
other forms of electricity generation systems

(Source: Raadal et al., 2011)

5.3 Trade off analysis techniques used to assess the position of

hydropower in the water energy food nexus
5.3.1 Introduction
The water food energy security nexus can be assessed using methodologies in a
continuum, running from qualitative approaches at the start of the continuum, to more data
driven and quantitative modelling. A range of factors can determine which approach is
chosen, including:

64

The goal of the analysis

The level of capacity and trust between competing stakeholders at different scales
Sectoral integration

Access to data
Capacity for analysis

(Jgerskog et al., 2013)

If common issues and barriers to cooperation are jointly identified, this can help to build
collaboration and trust between multiple countries in a macro-region or between sectors
(Jgerskog et al., 2013).

5.3.2 Background to some trade off techniques

There are some tools under development which aim to identify win-win opportunities where
all parties can gain from explicitly sharing the available resources. In the case of
transboundary catchments water resources are rarely sustainably, efficiently or equitably
utilised, even though water is critical to economic growth and particularly in developing
countries (Phillips et al., 2008).
Phillips et al. (2008) have produced a methodology for analysing the opportunities for
increasing benefits in transboundary water resources management, noting it would also be
applicable in non-transboundary contexts. The focus is on developing win-win solutions,
where each party benefits more by cooperating than by acting in isolation. The conceptual
framework of the Transboundary Waters Opportunity (TWO) analysis consists of a matrix of
four key development opportunities and two main categories of water source for realising the
opportunities (Phillips et al., 2008). This is shown in Table 11. The framework facilitates
context-specific analysis and can be adapted where necessary by adding opportunities and
water sources. Example opportunities are wastewater re-use and optimal siting of
multipurpose dams.
The methodology is intended to be applied in a range of contexts, including:

Formal negotiations or training in relation to identifying win-win development

opportunities
Identifying promising opportunities for detailed investigation through either political
negotiation or strategic analysis of options and trade-offs
As a scenario tool to illustrate future options
Identifying investment opportunities for public and private financiers

(Phillips et al., 2008)

Phillips et al. postulate the following wide range of uses for the TWO analysis framework:

Strategic-level planning taking into account various riparian perspectives

Supporting decision-making by the donor community on increasing benefits from
water use
Determining major infrastructural requirements based on the preferred allocation of
resources
Providing chronological investment sequence information to all sources of finance

(Phillips et al., 2008)

Such a framework could be used to analyse the use of hydropower within the water energy
food nexus.

65

Factors:
Development

New water

Categories: Sources
More efficient use of
water

Other sources in basins

that are not closed
Power trade provides the
opportunity to optimise
complex power-supply
alternatives allowing for a
mix of sources of fuel,
including hydropower, fossil
fuels, nuclear, and renewable
energy such as sun and
wind. It reduces costs and
provides for transparency in
all transactions for the
consumers.

Hydropower
and power
trading

New water can be created

by the siting of dams
where evaporative losses
are minimised. The
interplay to Green and
Blue Water dynamics
should be addressed.

The siting of dams in

transboundary basins
influences the
geographical pattern of
water availability. This
has a profound impact
on the net benefits
arising from a
transboundary
watercourse.

Primary
production

Desalinated sources of
water are generally not
suitable for agricultural
use, due to cost and
quality-related constraints.
However, there is great
scope for the re-use of
treated wastewaters in
many developing
countries. Inter-basin
transfers are also likely to
become much more
common in the future

The key method of

relevance to increasing
the efficiency of water
use for primary
production involves
closer attention to the
Green Water-Blue
Water interface. The
output of the agricultural
sector can be greatly
enhanced in many
transboundary basins, if
this is taken into
account.

Many opportunities exist for

increasing the production of
biomass by optimising land
and water use. This provides
opportunities to produce
bioenergy to meet the
growing demand for energy
at the global level and
scaling up e.g. aquaculture to
meet growing food demands.

Where inter-sectoral
allocations occur and
move water from
agriculture to the sectors
with higher economic
returns, it is most
important that the
resource is used
efficiently, maximising
the economic returns
per unit volume.

To ensure reliable supplies of

water for growing urban and
industrial needs, water
should be managed and
stored so that losses are
minimised. Water can be
stored underground through
recharge of aquifers for both
water supply and to protect
coastal aquifers from salt
water intrusion.

All forms of more

efficient water use will
alter river flow
dynamics, and this
offers potential for
optimising returns from
ecosystem services.
Fisheries and tourism
are especially important
generators of income in
such scenarios.

In basins that are not closed

ecosystems such as
wetlands that have been
degraded can be restored by
allocating water to restore
their capacity to generate
ecosystem services. This
provides benefits such as
water purification and
increased biodiversity.

Recurrent droughts are

a major obstacle for
farmers relying on rain
fed agriculture to receive
a return on their

Floods destroy physical

infrastructure and social and
economic systems in many
basins globally. Flood
protection and early warning

Urban growth
and industrial
development

Environment
and
ecosystem
services

Others (every
basin is
unique and
other
opportunities

66

The much higher

economic returns from
water in the industrial and
services sectors
(compared to the
agricultural sector)
provide a route to
enhanced economic
growth for many
developing countries.
However, societal effects
must be addressed.
Enhanced attention to the
upstream Green WaterBlue Water interface can
improve or guarantee
aquatic ecosystem
services in downstream
stretches of shared
watercourses. Benefits
from this can be
transferred upstream, as
in the Green Credit
proposals.
Many urban areas are
found along coastlines.
Desalination of seawater
provides, where
economically feasible, a

Factors:
Development
may exist)

New water
new water source for high
value use. The use of
desalinated water may
reduce the pressure to
abstract water for e.g.
urban areas in water
stressed basins.

Categories: Sources
More efficient use of
water
investment. By
improving the natural
storage capacity through
improved Green/Blue
Water management and
groundwater storage a
basin system can be
less vulnerable to the
impacts of drought.

Other sources in basins

that are not closed
systems may be important
strategies to increase the
resilience of basins providing
downstream benefits.
Storage infrastructure or
restoring watersheds are
tools to consider.

(Source: Phillips et al., 2008)

Table 11 The conceptual framework for the TWO analysis

In recent years a number of modelling techniques have been developed to carry our multiobjective trade-off analysis. Examples of some of the variables, which are generally benefits,
that can be traded off in such models are shown in Table 12. Such models allow both
quantitative and qualitative benefits to be traded off against one another.
Trade-off variable
Hydropower revenue in
US$
Irrigated agriculture
revenue in US$
Deficit in municipal
3
water supply in m of
water
Firm energy from
hydropower in GWh
Difference between the
regulated and natural
flow duration curve in %
difference
Difference in the natural
and regulated
hydrograph flood flows
3
in m /s

Objective
Hydropower revenue is maximised dependent on hydraulic head levels
in the associated reservoir or pondage, flow rate through the turbines
and timing of releases as bulk energy prices vary though the year.
Agricultural revenue is maximised dependent on minimising crop water
deficits during growing seasons. This is dependent on the crop type.
The deficit in the volume of water supplied to the urban areas was
minimised.
A firm energy objective is to maximise the electrical output in GWh at
90% reliability.
Deviation from the natural flow duration curve. This variable is used as a
proxy for ecosystem services. The objective is to minimise this variable.

Deviation from the natural flood hydrograph. This variable is used as a

proxy for ecosystem services. The objective is to minimise this variable.

(Source: Adapted from Hurford and Harou, 2014)

Table 12 Examples of variables used to assess the trade-offs between hydropower, irrigated
agriculture, municipal water supply and the environment

Hurford and Harou (2014) applied this approach to assess changes in operation of
hydropower dams in the Tana River in Kenya on the basis of optimal trade-offs between
energy generation, food production and environmental protection (Hurford and Harou, 2014).
The ability to quantify trade-offs between monetary and non-monetary benefits and involve
stakeholders in developing measures of system performance which represent their interests
makes this a useful tool for stakeholder engagement in both the planning and operating
phases of hydropower development. The best available trade-offs are displayed graphically,
offering decision makers and other stakeholders the opportunity to intuitively understand the
implications of different management decisions. This can help make balanced and equitable

67

decisions on water management for multiple purposes and has important implications for
current concerns about managing systems to promote water, energy and food security. The
proposed approach is being applied in Kenyas Tana Basin and Ghanas Volta Basin
through a project led by IUCN (IUCN, 2014).
These types of approach represent an advanced form of cost benefit analysis in which costs
can be monetary, non-monetary or expressed as sacrifice of other benefits. Benefits likewise
can be monetary or non-monetary, potentially addressing long running challenges with
valuation of non-market ecosystem services (Brown et al., 2009; Sagoff, 2011; Steele, 2009;
Paton and Bryant, 2012; Abson and Termansen, 2011; Sagoff, 2008; Rsnen et al., 2013).

68

SECTION 6
Criteria used for the selection of the case
studies
One of the objectives of the harnessing hydropower study was to carry out three case
studies: one from Africa and two from Asia. Carrying out case studies helped contribute
directly to the understanding of sector specific issues in the selected countries and also to
identify cross-cutting issues and trends to be aware of when discussing possible
developments in other countries. Having undertaken a high level review of the information
and data available on which to base selection criteria, the following were developed as the
high level and pragmatic selection criteria:

Usefulness in providing insight into a range of issues affecting hydropower

performance
Practicality of carrying out case study country visits and engagement with a range of
stakeholders
Sensitivity of the issues surrounding hydropower which might affect access to data
access and willingness of people to discuss the issues
Data issues around openness or availability which might affect ability to undertake
quantitative analysis

A more extensive list of indicators was also used to support these selection criteria, some
examples of which were:

Installed hydropower capacity

Proportion of national electricity generated by hydropower
Proportion of population with access to grid electricity
Feasible hydropower capacity
Hydrological issues
Baseline and 2050 climate change water stress

On this basis, Nepal, India and Malawi were selected as case study countries. This selection
provides an insight into a broad range of issues around hydropower performance owing to
the diversity of contexts and conditions represented. Table 13 details the key features of
these countries. The selected countries have a diverse range of political contexts. They are
all democracies, but at various stages of development, with India being the most wellestablished. This affects the power structures for decision making in relation to large
infrastructure such as hydropower dams.
Both India and Nepal rely heavily on the Himalayan mountains for water resources; however,
they do have contrasting political systems, states of development and energy sectors. The
choice of these countries also allowed some of the transboundary issues in the region to be
explored. Currently Nepal and Malawi have almost entirely run of river hydropower schemes;
however, plans are in place for storage schemes which present new and different challenges
and opportunities. India has a legacy of storage schemes, but has moved towards
constructing run of river schemes to limit environmental and social impacts. Nepal and India
and grappling with the issue of sharing their transboundary water resources.

69

Nepal

Case study countries

India
Democracy since 1951,
previously British
colonial rule until
independence in 1947
Diverse: alpine; humid,
tropical; arid and semiarid

Malawi
Democracy since 1994,
formerly single party
republic after British
colonial rule
Tropical (mostly),
Temperate (northern
highlands)

Political
systems (1900
to present)

Democratic federal republic

since 2008, previously
constitutional monarchy

Climate

Altitude dependent:
Tropical (low altitude) to
arctic (high altitude)

Topography
related to
current
hydropower
potential

Middle Hills (800 m to 4,000

m)

Himalayan mountains

Shire Highlands
downstream of Lake
Malawi

Types of
hydropower

Almost entirely run of river

Storage (older
schemes) and run of
river

Run of river

Glaciers, seasonal snowfall

and rainfall

Glaciers, seasonal
snowfall and rainfall

Rainfall, Lake Malawi

India, Bangladesh

Bangladesh, Pakistan

Zambia

High

High

Low

Background to Nepals
power sector
Impacts of climate change
on hydropower generation
Grid and off grid hydropower
performance
Role of privately owned
hydropower projects
Use of micro-hydropower

Focused on Himachal
Pradesh state in
northern India owing to
it having a high
proportion of Indias
total hydropower
potential
Challenges of largeand small-scale
hydropower
development
Impacts of climate
change on hydropower
generation
Influence of India
hydropower policy on
the Himachal Pradesh
state

Focused on Shire River

schemes
Operational issues
specific to Malawi that
affect hydropower
performance such as
weed growth
Impacts of climate
change on hydropower
generation

Water sources
utilised for
hydropower
Downstream
countries
Importance of
transboundary
issues

Issues
addressed in
the case study

Table 13 Background to the hydropower schemes operating in each of the selected case study
country

70

SECTION 7
Conclusions and research gaps
7.1 Conclusions
The following can be concluded from the literature review.
Hydropower will play an increasingly important part in supplying electricity in low
income countries in Africa and Asia over the next 30 years
Storage hydropower schemes can usually be operated flexibly providing a rapid response to
changes in demand. In an integrated system, reservoir and pumped storage hydropower can
be used to reduce the frequency of start-ups and shutdowns of thermal plants; to maintain a
balance between supply and demand under changing patterns thereof.
Existing hydropower schemes should be re-operated, improved and rehabilitated
before investing in new infrastructure
Generally, existing hydropower schemes should be rehabilitated, refurbished or upgraded
before new facilities are constructed. Adding new or more efficient turbines generally has a
much lower social and environmental impact than building new schemes. It is important to
note that hydropower is a mature technology hence even very old hydropower equipment is
only likely to be 5% to 15% less efficient than the most modern plant (Lier and Goldberg,
2011). Hence the largest increase in hydropower performance will be in cases where the
equipment has deteriorated (e.g. to such a degree that there are significant efficiency gains
simply by replacing it with traditional designs and solutions (see the case of the TrushuliDevighat hydropower scheme in Nepal detailed in Box 8)).
New hydropower schemes need to be assessed within the context of comprehensive
catchment-wide planning
New hydropower schemes should be considered in the context of the whole catchment
taking into account how climate change will influence flows, and how future river flows must
meet competing demands made for energy, the environment, and water supply for domestic,
agriculture and industrial uses. Community- and ecosystem-based adaptation approaches
that integrate the use of biodiversity and ecosystem services into an overall strategy aimed
at empowering people to adapt to climate change must be central to any comprehensive
planning efforts with respect to new hydropower dam developments (Beilfuss, 2012).
There is a paucity of suitable hydrological data with which to plan new hydropower
schemes in many low income counties
Hydropower schemes based on limited and unreliable hydrological data have the potential to
underperform and not to attain the benefits the infrastructure is designed to generate.
Generally, in the past two decades hydro-meteorological networks in low income countries
have deteriorated.
Emphasis should be placed on investing in hydropower schemes that maximise
flexibility and adaptive management
Climate change accentuates the risks related to the development of new hydropower
schemes because stationarity in future river flow series can no longer be assumed. This

71

means that a premium should be placed on hydropower schemes that maximise flexibility
and operations that embrace adaptive management.
Climate change scenarios should be incorporated into the planning and design of
new hydropower schemes
Iimi (2007), Rydgren (2007) and Pottinger (2009) all claim that climate change impacts are
rarely explicitly considered when planning hydropower projects. There is strong evidence to
suggest that the possible effects of climate change are not being taken into account when
new hydropower schemes are being planned (see Iimi, 2007; Pottinger, 2009; and Beilfuss,
2012). Climatic uncertainty as the result of climate change should be incorporated into
hydropower design, as a matter of course to help to avoid over- or under-designed
infrastructure and financial risk, and to improve the resilience of this long-lived infrastructure.
There is some limited work that suggests that planned investment for hydropower in Africa is
in regions that are unlikely to experience the worst effects of climate change and hence are
fairly low risk in terms of being non-performing or not meeting internal returns targets, but
there are also other studies that contradict these findings. More work is required to assess
the impacts of climate change uncertainty on proposed hydropower schemes in low income
countries relative to other variables (e.g. capital costs, operation and maintenance costs,
internal rates of return).
Evaluations of proposed new hydropower schemes should include an assessment of
their water footprint and greenhouse gas emissions
It would appear that the water footprint and greenhouse gas emissions have in many cases
in the past not been estimated at all when hydropower schemes have been evaluated by
international funding agencies. There is a growing body of evidence to suggest that in hot
countries that these are larger than previously anticipated. Hence there is a need to evaluate
these when new hydropower schemes are planned and the performance of existing ones are
assessed.
Technological innovations can improve environmental performance and reduce
operational costs of hydropower schemes
Although hydropower technologies are mature, recent research into the following areas will
help to improve the efficiency and lessen the impacts of future hydropower schemes:
variable-speed turbines; fish-friendly turbines; new sediment management techniques; more
efficient tunnelling methods; use of models to assess and optimise the trade-offs between
energy, irrigation and water supply needs as part of integrated river basin management.
Environmental and social issues will continue to play a significant part in the
development of new hydropower opportunities
The social and environmental impacts of hydropower schemes vary depending on the
projects type, size and local conditions. Experience gained over the past 80 years, together
with recently developed sustainability guidelines and criteria, and innovative planning
approaches based on stakeholder engagement and technical innovations should be used to
help to improve the sustainability performance of future projects. This is not always the case.
The benefits of large hydropower schemes often do not reach the poorest
communities
Although hydropower has been a tool for economic development worldwide, in many low
income countries the electricity produced has failed to reach the rural poor for a variety of
reasons including a lack of distribution infrastructure (see Collier, 2006; Hankins, 2009;
Imhof and Lanza, 2010). The benefits of supplying a small amount of electricity are generally
greatest for the people currently without access to electricity, usually including the rural poor
(Collier, 2006).

72

Improvements are required in the understanding of the water energy food nexus
and the place of hydropower within it
There is no harmonised nexus database or analytical framework that can be used for
monitoring or trade-off analyses (SEI, 2011). Hence the effects of increasing energy or water
scarcity on food and water or energy security, as well as potential synergies between land,
water and energy management, are not well understood (SEI, 2011). One question that
needs to be addressed is to what extent can the higher availability of one resource
sustainably reduce scarcity of another, and how might this work at different spatial scales.
Investments in new hydropower schemes should ensure that they increase climate
resilience
Investments in new hydropower schemes should aim to enhance climate resilience by
helping poor and vulnerable communities prepare for, withstand, and recover from the
negative effects of climate change. However, there have been some cases where large
hydropower dams can decrease, rather than enhance, climate resilience, especially for the
rural poor, by increasing evaporative water loss, prioritising power generation over water
supply and changing the hydrological regime which supports food production. For example,
in 1992 Gammelsrod estimated that the impact of modified seasonal flows caused by
hydropower schemes on the Zambezi River in southern Africa on shrimp fisheries in the
estuary was US$10 million dollars per year (Gammelsrod, 1992).
Regional pools of sustainable power should be diversified to reduce the dependency
on energy sources that can be affected by climate change
Creating a diverse energy supply is critical for climate change adaptation in water stressed
regions (Beilfuss, 2012). Frameworks such as the one developed by the Southern African
Power Pool (SAPP) provides a means for diversifying power production and reducing
dependency on energy sources that can be affected by climate change, which in some
cases will include hydropower. In practice, however, SAPP has emphasised large-scale coal
and hydropower development to feed the regional grid, without serious consideration of
climate change impacts and risks (Cole et al., 2013; Beilfuss, 2012). SAPP could play a key
leadership role in adapting the regional power grid to the realities of climate variability and
water scarcity through promotion of decentralised energy technologies, energy efficiency
standards, demand-side management, and feed-in tariffs to support renewable technologies
(Beilfuss, 2012).

7.2 Research gaps

There are a number of research and knowledge gaps related to the performance of
hydropower and its place within the water food energy security nexus. These are briefly
detailed below.
Trade-off assessments
Although there have been a number of researchers carrying trade-off assessments that
allow the position of hydropower to be assessed within the water energy food nexus
there is still a need for more research and guidance in this area. For example, should
international funding agencies invest US$80 billion in the proposed Grand Inga hydropower
project on the River Congo in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) that will
generate 40,000 MW (International Rivers, 2014) or would it be more sustainable and
advantageous to use these funds to put in place small-scale, off-grid, power generation (e.g.
wind, solar, small-scale hydropower) that are more likely to directly benefit the 94% of the
DRCs population that do not have access to electricity? Such questions remain difficult to
answer and more research is required to allow funding agencies and other investors to make
more transparent and robust decisions based on trade-off assessments.

73

Estimation of greenhouse gases from hydropower scheme reservoirs

Hydropower is often cited as a green form of energy with low greenhouse gas emissions;
however, recent research indicates that for hydropower schemes with large reservoirs
located in tropical and semi-tropical regions, the greenhouse gas emissions in grammes
equivalent of CO2/kWh may similar to other dirty energy sources such as coal fired power
stations. There is disagreement amongst researchers concerning the quantities of
greenhouse emitted by reservoirs. Although the Kyoto Clean Development Mechanism now
recognises that for reservoirs with large surface areas per kWh of energy generated there
are greenhouse gases emitted, further research is required in tropical and sub-tropical low
income countries to enable a more accurate picture of emissions from hydropower schemes
to be put in place.
Minimisation and utilisation of greenhouse gases generated by hydropower scheme
reservoirs to generate power
Methane could be extracted from the water in reservoirs and burnt as a renewable source of
energy. There is some limited research describing the potential for extracting methane from
reservoirs to be used as a renewable energy source (Ramos et al., 2009), based on earlier
work by Kling et al. (2005). However, further work is needed to investigate methods to
minimise the emissions from hydropower schemes including understanding the processes
via which these gases are generated.
Consumptive use of different power generation techniques and water foot printing
tools for power production techniques
There are limited data on consumptive water use in the energy sector for different power
generation techniques (e.g. hydropower, thermal, nuclear), compared to the data for the
actual water withdrawn from the aquatic environment (e.g. surface or ground waters).
Existing data on the consumptive use of different power generation techniques are often not
consistently traced throughout the full lifecycle. In order to compare the water use of different
power generation techniques a widely accepted water footprinting tool is required.
Uniformly applicable water footprint frameworks do not yet exist that allow the comparison of
water use efficiency for different forms of energy or food production (SEI, 2011). Such water
footprint frameworks would have to consistently integrate water productivity with water
scarcity and opportunity costs in any particular location (SEI, 2011). There is still a need to
have transparent methods to assess the water footprints of hydropower schemes in relation
to the amount of power that they generate.
Impacts of hydropower on ecosystem services including their cumulative effects
There is still insufficient knowledge on the impacts of hydropower schemes on ecosystem
services including the relationships between river flows, the state of aquatic ecosystems and
terrestrial flora and fauna. There is also a need to improve the assessment of environmental
risks associated with cumulative impacts, resulting from development of cascades of storage
dams for hydropower schemes.
There are suggestions that there is a need for a publicly available clearinghouse to store
existing data on environmental impacts and environmental mitigation measures for
hydropower schemes covering areas such as: the passage of fish; environmental flow
releases; and water quality. This would require clear criteria for inclusion of data and
information (e.g. recent, peer-reviewed journal papers and credible web sites). These data
could help to reduce the cost of mitigation decisions and support comprehensive reviews of
environmental issues. This is a role that could possibly be fulfilled by the International
Hydropower Associations Hydropower Sustainability Assessment Protocol and web site.

74

For example, for hydropower schemes that utilise reservoirs formed by a dam there is a
need to carry out more research in order to separate the environmental impacts of the dam
from the impacts of hydropower operation itself.
Role and impacts of small-scale hydropower schemes in low income countries
It is widely reported that small scale hydropower is environmentally friendly. However,
more work is needed to accurately assess the environmental impacts caused by small
hydropower so that such schemes can be compared with other forms of electricity
generation (e.g. large scale hydropower, thermal, wind, solar) on the scale of the impacts
per kW of power generated (Abbasi, 2011). It is possible that the impacts of the widespread
use of small scale hydropower may be no less numerous or less serious, per kW generated,
than those from hydropower produced from large storage dams (Abbasi, 2011).
No accurate statistics on the potential for small scale hydropower are available for Africa.
Their rates of development are commonly thought to be lower than for large-scale
hydropower (Klunne, 2013). Currently, grid connected small hydropower is mostly
constructed and operated by either national utilities or Independent Power Projects (Klunne,
2013). To increase the deployment of small hydropower, as well as, isolated networks and
off-grid electrification different implementation models will be required. This is an area that
requires further research.
Financing of small-scale hydropower schemes in low income countries
Small hydropower projects (<10 MW) are often less profitable and thus more difficult to
finance than larger schemes. Several of the cost components involved in developing
hydropower do not change proportionally with the projects size. However, small scalehydropower can have a number of environmental and social advantage. There is a need to
carry out more research into sustainable financing and business models that are required to
facilitate the development of off-grid small hydropower in the low income countries.
Private sector participation in the development and operation of new hydropower
schemes
There is need to carry out more research into how the private sector can effectively
participate in hydropower scheme development and operation. Research is needed into how
to devise an appropriate enabling environment (i.e. providing enough inducements without
creating excessive rewards), how to compensate private partners for the provision of public
goods, as well as methods to allocate the correct proportion of the risks to private sector
partners.

75

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