Karnataka Electricity Regulatory Commission

Discussion note on
Draft KERC (Forecasting, Scheduling, Deviation settlement and related
matters for Wind and Solar Generation sources) Regulations, 2015.
1.0.

Preamble:
a) The installed capacity of Renewable Energy generation in Karnataka
was 5068 MWs as on 31-03-2015, which accounts for 33.66% of the total
installed capacity of 15052 MW including the States share from CGS.
The installed capacity of wind generation is about 2400 MW accounting
to about 47.35 % of Renewable Energy generation and is about 15.94 %
of total installed capacity in the State.
b) A minimum load of 4125 MW was recorded in the State at about 3.0 AM
on 31-08-2014 (with a peak load of 5878 MW on the same day and the
peak demand of 9549 MW during FY-15). The wind generation was
maximum from 30th August, 2014 to 8th September, 2014. There was a
forced backing down of the wind generation ranging between 761 MW
to about 1742 MW during the maximum wind generation period to
maintain the frequency band within maximum permissible limit of 50.2
Hz, after taking all other possible measures like minimizing the thermal
and hydel generation. In spite of backing down the wind generation,
the RE generation was about 35 to 40 MU per day and wind generation
was about 17.96 MU to 27.80 MU per day during these days.
(The details are shown in annexure-A)
c) The installed capacity of solar generation in the State is about 83 MW
and about 800 - 1000 MW capacity is proposed to be added during
FY16 and FY17. A big solar generation park of 2000 MW is proposed to
be established in Pavagada Taluka of Tumukuru district.
d) Renewable energy generation (wind and others) in the southern region
as on 30-04-2015 was about 15117 MW which accounts for 23.20% of
1

total installed generation capacity of 65080 MW from all sources and

about 80% of renewable energy sources in the region.
e) Karnataka State is having substantial agricultural loads and these loads
will be minimum (sometimes zero) during monsoon season when the
wind generation will be maximum during this period. The system loads in
the Karnataka will be minimum and also there will be substantial
quantum of generation from the mini and major hydro plants from the
water flows down stream of the pick-up dams and storage dams, under
normal monsoon conditions.
f) The Wind energy generation is found to be very consistent from year to
year, but has significant variation over shorter time scales (high
variability). Generally, the peak wind resource availability will not
coincide with the system peak demand but coincides with light loads
during night hours of monsoon period when the system demand is
lowest during the year. The wind generation being infirm power, there
will be frequent ramp up and ramp down in its generation due to
varying wind speed. The thermal plants generation cannot be reduced
below a certain capacity due to technical reasons. The load and
generation balancing due to frequent

ramp up and ramp down of

wind generation is causing serious Grid operational problems. Grid

operation becomes a big challenge for facilitating large scale
integration of variable nature of Renewable Energy Sources (RES), like
wind and solar without compromising on the stability and security of the
Grid. Moreover, as the country is deploying strict grid disciplinary
measures and moving towards a tighter operational frequency band, it
becomes even more challenging to balance and operate with wide
variability of wind generation. The wind and solar power penetration of
more than 25 % to 30 % of system demand at any point of time will
create operational and balancing issues. The variation in grid frequency
and the ability of the conventional generators to respond in short
2

duration of time are the two main concerns arising out of the variable
wind and solar generation.
g) Generation of power from wind and solar is totally influenced by the
nature, i.e. wind velocity and solar insolation, climatic changes and
geographical condition, which are difficult to accurately predict
/forecast.
h) In the last two years, many of the wind generation plants are backed
down in Karnataka during high wind and low load monsoon periods for
the grid operational issues of high system frequency. The problem will
become more acute during the subsequent years due to addition of
more wind and large scale solar power generators in Karnataka.
i) Adequate capacity of Hydro and Gas based generation capable of
responding to quick ramp up and

ramp downs of wind and solar

generation will mitigate to some extent such problems caused by

variable wind and solar generation.
j) Access to transmission and proper evacuation to load centres another
very important consideration in developing wind and solar energy.
k) It is also important to note that uncertainty in wind and solar energy
generation and the challenge to forecast. The complexity of weather
related factors and geographical features make it difficult to predict
wind velocity and potential for electricity generation at a location. Solar
irradiance at a location is influenced by a number of factors, which
include time of the day, temperature, cloud cover and particulate
matter in the air.
l) Most of the wind and solar energy generators are presently connected
to intra-State network and in future are likely to be connected to the
inter-State and inter-regional transmission system (ISTS & IRTS). As of now
there is no power flow from wind and solar generations between interregions and inter-state since most of the wind and solar generators are
tied up with respective State power distribution utilities and third party
sales through Open access within the State boundaries.
3

m) Recently, the CERC has issued the amendment to the CERC DSM and
related matter Regulations, 2014 for Forecasting, Scheduling and
Imbalance handling of interstate transactions of Wind and Solar
Generation.
n) Hence it is found necessary to formulate Karnataka Electricity
Regulatory Commission (Forecasting, Scheduling, Deviation settlement
and

related

matters

for

Wind

and

Solar

Generation

sources)

Regulations, 2015 for the optimal utilization of wind and solar

generations.
2.0.

Objective and Scope:

a) The objective of this proposals is to formulate KERC (Forecasting,
Scheduling, Deviation settlement and related matters for Wind and
Solar Generation sources) Regulations, 2015 in order to facilitate large
scale integration of Wind and Solar generating stations while
maintaining the grid stability and security as envisaged under IEGC
and

KEGC,

through

forecasting,

scheduling

and

commercial

mechanism for deviation settlement of these generators.

b) It is essential that the Grid operator has information in advance
regarding the quantum of the wind and solar energy that is expected
to be injected into the grid. This is especially critical for variable and
infirm energy sources of such wind and solar. Forecasting and
scheduling of these generators is critical to anticipate balancing
requirements and establish requisite generation reserves to maintain
load generation balance and grid reliability. At the same time, due to
the intermittent nature of these sources, special provisions must be
made so that the generators are not unduly penalized.

3.0.

Forecasting Tools:
a) Renewable Energy Management Centres (REMCs):
REMS, equipped with advanced forecasting tools are being established
in the country for forecasting wind and solar generation.
b) M/s NIWE (National Institute of Wind Energy) have already taken up a
pilot study for wind forecasting

project by installing wind forecasting

tools in all the wind mill locations in Tamil Nadu. The project envisages
installing of wind forecasting tools and also collecting live energy data
from wind energy pooling substations, installing equipments for real time
measurement of wind generation with communicative ABT meters in all
wind energy pooling substations and providing consolidated real time
wind energy data on a dash board installed at Central Station in
Chennai. In addition, the real time data will be fed into NIWEs
forecasting system that can be used for scheduling and forecasting wind
generation. The forecasting of 7480 MW wind installations is now
operational and made available to Tamil Nadu SLDC and it is learnt that
it is almost 85% near to actual.
4.0.

Draft Frame work for Forecasting, Scheduling & Handling deviations from
schedule for the infirm wind and solar generation.

4.1.

Applicability :
The proposed frame work is applicable to:
a) All Wind Generators having a combined installed capacity of 10.0
MW and above at the pooling station whether they are supplying
power to ESCOMs or to third party consumers through open access or
for captive consumption through open access within or outside the
State.
b) All Solar Generators with installed capacity of 5.0 MW and above at
the pooling station whether they are supplying power to ESCOMs or
5

to third party consumers through open access or for captive

consumption through open access within or outside the State.
4.2.

Fore casting:
a)

The forecasting is an estimation of probable generation

of wind and

solar power plants. Forecasting is an essential pre-requisite and shall

be made mandatory for scheduling of the wind and solar generation.
b)

The existing wind and solar power plants shall either by themselves or
through Qualified Coordinating Agency (QCA) or through an
Aggregator shall establish forecasting tools within three months from
the effective date of these Regulations and for new wind and solar
generators they shall be established

before commissioning of their

plants.
c)

Alternately services of REMCs (Renewable Energy Management

Centres) may be availed for installing forecasting tools and
generation forecasting.

d)

The forecast by the wind and solar generators shall be wind-farm/solar

facility centric and will form the basis of scheduling.

4.3.

Scheduling ( Generation and Loads):

a) Schedule details:
i. The wind and solar power plants either by themselves or through
Qualified Coordinating Agency (QCA) or through an Aggregator shall
furnish weekly, day ahead and intraday generation schedules of 15
minutes interval block period to SLDC by using / establishing
appropriate forecasting tools at their Wind-farm /Solar facility.
ii. Forecasting and scheduling Point:
The forecasting and scheduling of wind and solar generators shall be
conducted at pooling station level which being a commercial metering
point, though the forecasting tools are installed at wind-farm/solar
facility.
6

b) Frequency of Revisions
Considering the fact that wind and solar generation is intermittent and
variable in nature and also taking into account the fact that accuracy of
forecast improves as we move closer in time, the Wind and Solar energy
generator shall be allowed more opportunities to revise the schedule. It is
therefore proposed to provide an opportunity to the Wind and Solar
generators to revise the day ahead schedules for a maximum of 16
revisions during the intraday, one each in one and half hour time slot
starting from 00:00 hours during the day with prior notice of at least 60
minutes for each revision.
c) The wind, solar power and other RES should be given first priority in
generation scheduling and dispatching under normal power system
operating conditions.
d) Grid operator (SLDC) should consider forecasted generation schedule of
wind and solar power in the midterm to long term, day-ahead and intraday operation planning processes of scheduling and fully make use of the
flexibility from conventional power plants, as well as the capacity of inter
grid tie-lines to accommodate the maximum wind and solar power while
maintaining system security and reliability.
e) The Principal generator/ QCA/ Aggregator
long-term

involved for

connectivity,

open access and medium-term open Access in intra-State

transmission and related matters including long term agreements with

ESCOMs shall undertake all operational and commercial responsibilities
including forecasting and scheduling for the wind and solar generating
station.
4.4.

Computation of error quantity:

% Error (deviation) =

(Actual Generation - Scheduled Generation) X 100

(Scheduled Generation)

5.0.

Metering , sharing of data and Telemetry.

a) Metering:
SEMs (Special Energy Meters 0.2s class of accuracy) shall be provided
at the pooling station of wind and solar power plants, with a provision
for recording and storing all the load survey and billing parameters for
every 15 minutes interval block period. Monthly meter readings shall
be forwarded to the SLDC in addition to data acquisition through
SCADA, for energy accounting as per the existing practice
b) Telemetry:
Data telemetry shall be mandatorily adopted at the turbine/inverter
level. Parameters such as turbine availability, power output and realtime weather measurements (wind speed, temperature, pressure etc)
must be provided by each wind and solar Principal generator/ QCA
/Aggregator.
c) Communication:
i. The wind and solar Principal generator/ QCA / Aggregator whose
scheduling is done by the SLDCs, shall provide full data telemetry and
communication facilities to the concerned SLDC.
ii. A preparatory window shall be provided for the wind and solar
Principal generator/ QCA /Aggregator to ensure installation of data
measurement and telemetry equipment and for SLDCs to prepare
their systems and teams for receipt of regular data and schedules.
d) Procedure for data telemetry and communication requirements:
The SLDC will evolve the detailed procedure for data telemetry and
communication requirements solicit public comments and seek
necessary approval of the Commission for such procedure within two
month from the effective date of Regulation.

6.0.

Implementation of Intra-State ABT and Imbalance Handling (Deviation

Settlement Mechanism):

6.1.

Methodology to account for and settle the deviations by wind and solar
energy generators.
a) The day ahead scheduling in the country is being done for all interState schedules as per the Indian Electricity Grid Code on the basis of
15 minutes interval time blocks except for RES. The deviation between
schedule and actual power flow is called Unscheduled Interchange
(UI) for which commercial settlement is done as per the Unscheduled
Interchange (UI) rates specified by the Central Electricity Regulatory
Commission (CERC). The UI rates are variable depending on the
frequency and the quantum of drawal and they tend to discourage
over drawal and under generation. The day ahead schedules can
also be revised with prior notice of 60 minutes.
b) KERC vide ORDER No.B/09/5 dated 20th June 2006 have brought the
following Users and Generators in the State under intra State ABT
and deviation settlement mechanism:

c)

i.

All ESCOMs and Hukeri Electricity Cooperative Society

ii.

All State owned generating stations 25 MW & above

iii.

IPPs of 25 MW & above

iv.

Bio-mass and Co-generation plants of 25 MW & above.

v.

CPPs supplying power to the grid - 25 MW & above

The same is yet to be fully implemented. The Independent power

projects (IPPs) like Ms UPCL, M/s Jindal, M/s Sathavahana Ispat etc
which are interstate projects and CGS units in the State have been
brought

under

ABT

mechanism

and

deviation

settlement

mechanism and are being monitored by SLDC and SRLDC . But

ABT mechanism and deviation settlement mechanism are yet to
be adopted for M/s KPCL thermal and hydel units.

6.2.

Tolerance limits and deviation bands:

6.2.1. At present the wind, solar and other RES generators (excluding Bio-mass
and Co-generation plants of 25 MW & above) are exempted from the
purview of Unscheduled Interchange (UI) and Deviation Settlement
Mechanism (DSM) within the State.
6.2.2. The wind and solar generators are now proposed to be brought under
purview of DSM as detailed below:
a) The permissible deviation for all the wind and solar plants shall be
15 %

( with in the limits of >85% & <115%) of schedule ie the

actual generation shall be with in the premissible limits of 85% to

115% of schedule.
b) There will not be any DSM charges. if the deviation of generation is
within the specified limits of 15 % ( ie between - 85% to +115% of
schedule).
c) The energy charges will be paid to the generators as per the actual
energy supplied, irrespective of the schedule quantum of energy.
6.2.3. DSM

charges to DSM pool account for any deviations beyond the

permissible limits
a) Wind and Solar

generators having PPA with ESCOMs or directly

supplying power to consumers availing open access for wheeling the

power within or outside the State, shall pay to DSM pool account for
any deviations of the schedules at the rates show in the following
table.

Sl
No

Particulars

Deviation range

For wind and solar

1

generators having > 15

PPAs
ESCOMs

with %

Payment to DSM pool account by

generators
Rs 0.50 per kWh for the quantum of

25 %

short fall or excess

beyond

of energy

15 % and up to 25 %

of deviation from the

schedule
10

and

for

supplying
to

( ie., 10% above tolerable limits of

power

15%)

consumers

availing

Rs 0.50 per kWh for the quantum of

open

access

short fall or excess

facilities

beyond

for wheeling the

2

power

within

or > 25

outside the State

35 %

of energy

15 % and up to 25

% of deviation + (plus) Rs 1.0.per

kWh for the remaining quantum of
short fall

or excess energy for

deviation from schedule

beyond

25 % & up to 35 %.
Rs 0.50 per kWh for the quantum
of short fall or excess of energy for
deviation from schedule beyond

15 % and up to 25 %

+ (plus) Rs 1.0.per
more

> 35 %

kWh for the

than remaining quantum of short fall or

excess of energy for deviation
beyond

25 % up to 35 %

+ (plus) Rs 1.50

per kWh for the

quantum of short fall or excess of

energy deviation from

schedule

beyond 35 %

The illustaration shown in Annexure-B

b) The

SLDC shall maintain the pool account of

collection of the DSM

charges.

11

7.0.

Effective monitoring and compliance:

The SLDC will be assigned the task of tracking and monitoring compliance
by the wind and solar generators by making necessary provisions in the
proposed Karnataka Electricity Regulatory Commission (Forecasting,
Scheduling, Deviation settlement and related matters for Wind and Solar
Generation sources) Regulations, 2015.

8.0.

Grid

Strengthening

for

RES

Evacuation:

(Green

Corridor).

Provisions will be made in the Karnataka Electricity Grid Code 2005 for
identifying the constraints in evacuation of wind & solar power locally as
well as at grid level (upstream) during high wind and solar energy
penetration and low local loads and take immediate measures for
implementation of grid strengthening proposals by the Transmission utility.
9.0.

separate

regulations

called

Karnataka

Electricity

Regulatory

Commission (Forecasting, Scheduling, Deviation settlement and related

matters for Wind and Solar Generation sources) Regulations, 2015 is
proposed to be formulated.

12

Annexure:

Annexure-A : Wind Generation Backing down due to operational problems

Hrs of opening

Sl No

Date
From

To

Maximum

Wind

Backing

Minimum

Down of the

Load

wind

Frequency

MW

generation in

HZ

during
the day

MW (installed

in

RE
Generation
during the
day in MU

geeration
during
the

day

in MU

capacity)

27-08-14

16.06 Hrs

19.06 Hrs

20

50.17

4636

34.98

17.96

30-08-14

23.24 Hrs

00.00 Hrs

760.96

50.12

4012

40.83

26.674

31-08-14

22.00 Hrs

00.00 Hrs

1063.2

50.3

4125

39.11

27.799

1/9/2014

00.30 Hrs

6.00 Hrs

855.03

50.23

4200

38.33

25.403

6/9/2014

23.10 Hrs

00.00 Hrs

845.58

50.13

5004

39.35

24.729

7/9/2014

00.00 Hrs

7.00 Hrs

1013.7

50.13

4713

34.25

18.686

8/9/2014

00.00 Hrs

6.00 Hrs

1741.99

50.12

4715

40.92

25.159

13

Annexure-B: Illustration for computation of deviation charges for wind and solar generators
Particulars

Unit

Scenario-1 with in Scenario-2

Scenario-3

Scenario-4

permissible
deviation range
%

of Rs

< than 15 %

deviations
Schedule

> 15 %

- >

25

< 25 %

< 35 %

more than > 35 %

kWh

1000

1000

1000

1000

kWh

900

800

700

600

of kWh

100

200

300

15 % of 1000 =150

10% ie < 15%

20% ie > 15% & 30 % ie > 25% & 40% ie > 35 %

energy
Actual
generation
Deviation
energy
quantum
% Deviation

< 25%
Quantum

of kWh

deviation for
which

Nil

up

to

15

% 200-150=50

<35%
300-150-100=50

400-150-100-100=50

ie 150

the

charges to be
levied

14

Rate of DSM Rs

Nil

charges

Rs

0.50

kWh

per Rs 0.50 per kWhfor Rs 0.50 per kWhfor first

first

100

(250-150) 100

kWh

(250-150)

kWh

+ Plus Rs 1.0. per kWh

Plus Rs 1.0. per kWh (350-150-100) for

(300-150-100)
50

kWh

100

for kWh energy + Plus Rs

energy 1.50

400-350)for

deviation

to remaining

50 kWh

schedule

deviation

to

schedule
Permissible

kWh

15 % of 1000 =150

energy

15 % of 1000 15 % of 1000 =150

15 % of 1000 =150

=150

deviation
Deviation

kWh

Nil

energy

(200-150)

= 300-150 = 150 kWh

400-150= 250 kWh

50 kWh

above limits
DSM charges Rs
payable

by

Nil

50*0.5 = 25

[{(100*0.5}+
*1.0}]= 100

{50 [{(100*0.5}+ {100 *1.0}

+50*1.5]= 225

Generator

15