As Pakistan crosses into 2016, Jinnah Institute asked area experts to identify and highlight the most

serious challenges facing the country that could potentially emerge as governance and security flashpoints
for policymakers in the New Year.
Economic Gridlock :The new year could well be a turning point for Pakistans economy, but a lot
depends on how its opportunities are utilised. For the first time since the crash of 2008, Pakistans
economy could be poised for a revival of growth as inflation fell and reserves rose in 2015. A promise of
large-scale infrastructure investment from China began to take shape, and the fiscal situation was more or
less brought under control. If the trends continue through 2016, the elusive grail of growth could be well
within sight. However, all of these changes have been brought about by fortuitous external circumstances.
For a sustainable revival of growth, it will be necessary to lock in the gains through deeper structural
reforms in the public sector enterprises, power transmission and distribution and diversification of the
export base. Revival of investment will also be a crucial priority and if, any revival is narrowly based, it
will also prove illusory. The government has a window of opportunity opening up before it in the
forthcoming year. Whether it can muster the will and the vision to move from optimism to confidence,
and a meaningful material impact on the economy, will be the big economic story of 2016.
Glacial Melt & Floods :Enhanced glacial melt due to climate change will pose a clear and present danger
to Pakistan in 2016. The various facets of this challenge have to do with both Pakistans topography and
its geography. The country lies at the foothills of the third pole, the Himalayan glaciers, which store the
worlds third largest reservoir of frozen water. In an age of dwindling fresh water flow, this reservoir is a
precious asset which supplies almost 80 per cent of Pakistans river flow. However, the rapid depletion of
this reserve through climate-triggered glacial melting poses a serious challenge. Pakistan is a country on a
slope: the most geographically inclined country in the world which sharply slopes down from 8,000
meters to sea level in the short span of 2,000 kilometers. This makes any rapid glacial melt a trigger for
flash floods which can wreak havoc along the length of the country, as was the case in 2010 and 2011.
This is the case especially when this glacial melt overlaps with enhanced monsoon activity. Another
associated challenge is the formation of unstable glacial lakes which occurs due to rapid melting, and can
cause mountain tsunamis in the event of an outburst. At present, almost 50 such lakes are mapped in
Pakistans north, which has already faced a series of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). These facts
come together to make Pakistan one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change: according to
forecasts, climate change is likely to cost Pakistan between $6 to 14 billion a year in the coming decade.
This necessitates an urgent need to create an adaptation strategy that can manage and face up to
unplanned, and unavoidable, risks in the near future.
Realizing CPEC: As Pakistan enters 2016, the timely and efficient realisation of a host of ambitious
energy and infrastructure projects under the $46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) will
prove to be a national challenge. Amounting to 20 per cent of Pakistans GDP, the magnitude of
investments under CPEC and their potential to kick-start growth in an otherwise fledgling economy has
elevated the project as the governments foremost development priority until 2018. However, teething
problems in implementation are already fast emerging. The failure of the Sahiwal coal project and the
6000MW Gadani power project are a few examples of lax governance where inadequate environmental
assessments coupled with hasty preparation of project plans resulted in the loss of valuable time and
resources. Similarly, cost overruns on the Lahore orange metro train project, Multan-Sukkur motorway,
Havelian-Thakot road and the Mullah Band works in Gwadar have reached a billion dollars. The unusual
speed at which such projects have been approved by the government have also raised eyebrows within the
countrys financial sector, with the Governor of the State Bank publicly raising concerns on transparency
in financial structuring of CPEC projects. If Pakistan is to reap benefits accruing from CPEC, in 2016, the

government must streamline project planning and demonstrate its capacity to absorb investments without
compromising their financial and social viability.
Leadership Change in Balochistan: While 2015 saw a steady decline in Balochistan militancy, 2016 is
expected to bring new challenges in governance, law and order, and politico-structural issues. The newly
inducted Chief Minister, although a veteran in electoral politics, cannot be distinguished as a politician
with outreach and linkages with grassroots level issues. The biggest issue that Balochistan is likely to
confront is the 2016 Census, scheduled to be held in March. Any attempt to undertake a census in
Balochistan without resolving underlying political fissures will only trigger further conflict. Over the last
few decades, a heavy influx of immigrants from Afghanistan has resulted in a population bulge in much
of Balochistans Pushtun regions. Most of these Pushtun Afghans now have Pakistani CNICs and
passports. The Pushtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP), has claimed Afghan guests as its own, while
parties representing Baloch interests have opposed this internalisation. These parties worry that their own
Baloch communities may be rendered a minority if Afghan migrants are included in the upcoming census.
The other big challenge facing the province is creating consensus on the western route of the ChinaPakistan Economic Corridor. Baloch leaders have serious concerns on what they see as an exclusion of
Baloch voices from the envisioned project and a lack of sufficient guarantees for the protection of Baloch
interests. A third issue is the reconciliation process under the National Action Plan. Former Chief Minister
Abdul Malik had been leading a reconciliation process that has started showing results. Provincial
leadership change is likely to complicate these gains. The new Chief Ministers ability to reach out to, and
carry forward the process with the Mengal, Mari and Domki Sardars, is limited. The fourth big challenge
of 2016 is going to be the maintenance of the law and order situation and delivering on governance. The
former can be achieved if the Chief Minister continues to receive the Armys support. Achieving the latter
will be harder: Balochistans record on governance is bleak and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
have yet to be incorporated in provincial development plans.
Bringing NAP to South Punjab: The states ability to rein in jihadist groups in South Punjab in 2016
will test both national counter-terror (CT) capacities and commitments to curbing violent extremism and
sectarianism in the Punjab heartland. A year after the federal government unveiled its 20-point National
Action Plan (NAP) last December, counter-terrorism initiatives have scored several important gains,
particularly in the realm of arresting militant suspects and emphasising the need to choke off terrorist
financing. However, more needs to be done, particularly in South Punjab, a region that remains a crucible
of extremism and Gulf-sponsored but home-bred radicalism, and is home to an estimated 57 militant
groups of various colours. The target-killing of Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) commander Malik Ishaq in 2015,
together with raids and search-and-kill operations in Lahore and Multan, points to shrinking provincial
space for militants and sectarian outfits. However, the suicide attack on Punjab Home Minister Shuja
Khanzada has exposed key gaps in the states counter-terror strategy in Punjab. Network infrastructure in
the form of sleeper cells and support bases still proliferate; Punjab-based groups also pose a danger to the
recently rebooted India-Pakistan bilateral relationship, given the BJPs fixation with cross-border
terrorism. Here at home, the interior ministry has yet to make public a list of banned organisations, further
obfuscating the ruling partys resolve to move against criminal groups. In 2016, it is equally imperative
that federal and provincial governments mobilise alternative narratives against hate-filled ideologies that
fuel extremist actions and recruitment in the southern plains. Post-18th Amendment, the province will
also have to take policy decisions on issues such as reviewing gun licenses and madrassah activities
across Punjab. More than half of Punjabs 12,000 seminaries are unregistered, and of 1,764 people on
government wanted lists, 729 are from south Punjab alone. Given the unwelcome ability of Punjabbased militants to develop inter-ideological partnerships with extra-provincial militant networks, Pakistan
will have to proactively seek to cut off militant oxygen in the region.

Governing the Pak-Afghan Border: Afghan President Ashraf Ghani says his country is infested with
militants from China, Central Asia and the Middle East. He also understands that the Taliban insurgency
has gained significant momentum since December 2014, when NATOs combat mission came to an end in
Afghanistan. This should be a real concern for policymakers in Pakistan. Afghan security agencies are not
strong enough to deal with the security situation in their country, and any spillover of terrorist violence
into Pakistan will quickly reverse the military gains against the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and other
radical factions. Problematically, any attempt to plug the leaky border between the two states is likely to
run into difficulties given that the international boundary meanders through craggy mountains and narrow
valleys. It does not help matters that Kabul refuses to recognise the territorial demarcation separating the
two countries and, as some Pakistani defence officials recently claimed, is not too enthusiastic about
embracing new border coordination mechanisms. Nevertheless, Pakistan has taken certain positive
unilateral steps, such as, the digging of a trench on its side of the border and the installation of ground
surveillance radars to curb unwanted movement along and across the frontier. None of this has gone over
well with the Afghans, however, who continue to believe that a chunk of Pakistans northwestern region
belongs to them. These challenges are not likely to go away in 2016. This is why polities in Islamabad
and Kabul must understand and appreciate that border violations and skirmishes symptomise the graver,
deep-rooted issue of the massive bilateral trust deficit. The only way to fix the border, therefore, is to fix
the relationship.
Rehabilitating IDPs: For the Pakistani state, it appears that rehabilitating IDPs, particularly those from
the tribal belt, only means sending those displaced by military operations back home. But this is just one
stage of a long process that requires a lot more than simply asking those who have been uprooted to go
back and restart their lives from scratch. Presently, of the 291,827 families internally displaced due to
Operation Zarb-e-Azb, 108,503 families have returned home. However, their problems are far from over:
across the tribal belt, these returnees find their livelihoods destroyed, their shelters bombed, and
government infrastructure non-supportive for them to resume their lives. Those on the ground allege that
tribesmen and women are victims of a flawed proxy war. Despite this, they readily gave up all that
belonged to them in the hope for peace for the country. Yet, the treatment meted out to them suggests that
they are blamed for terrorism in the country. In 2016 the government will have to redress this narrative
that sees the tribal people as a problem, and instead, view the situation in the context of policy mistakes
made in the past by former military regimes which allowed FATA tribesmen to become hostage to
extremists in their own land. Going forward, the government needs to not only inculcate in them a sense
of belonging to Pakistan by rebuilding their lives, but also take effective measures to bring the Federally
Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) into the constitutional fold, abolish the Frontier Crimes Regulation
(FCR) and, perhaps most importantly, dismantle pro-Pakistani militant infrastructure in the tribal belt.
Otherwise, the recurring cycle of influx of IDPs from the tribal belt will continue.
Mainstreaming FATA: Success in mainstreaming FATA will hinge on the federal governments policy
towards the tribal region in 2016. Including the people of the tribal areas in the mainstreaming process
will be a step in the right direction. However, imposing a unilateral decision will only serve to
unnecessarily complicate an already precarious political situation. The people of FATA have endured
immense suffering over the past decade, leaving behind deep social and political scars. Today, they
neither have the patience nor the capacity to undergo another cycle of violence and displacement.
Prudence dictates that the people of FATA not be pushed against the wall, especially since outside
elements can fuel or transfigure the quiet rumblings of discontent into a violent outburst. FATAs residents
have proven their loyalties in difficult conditions beyond the slightest doubt. It would be in Pakistans
own national interest in 2016 to ensure that these stakeholders are involved in the process of
mainstreaming the tribal agencies, and allowed to choose one of the two options that are being debated in
the media: merge with Khyber Pukhtunkhwa (KP) or be granted the status of a separate province. If this
opportunity is missed, the people of the region will never repose confidence and support in the
government again.

Managing Urbanization: In the 21st century, cities have emerged as engines of economic growth, social
entrepreneurship and innovation, in both developed and developing countries. Pakistans cities have
become magnets for the countrys growing youth cohort, which is fast developing an urban-global
outlook and an aspirational character. Pakistans cities have become laboratories for processes of social
change inspired and driven by economic liberalisation, political inclusion and technological and digital
media advancement. Led by cities, these processes are transforming the face and fabric of Pakistan, often
for the better. But in 2016 the serious challenges of Pakistans violent conflict-prone environment and
policy indifference to climate change repercussions threatens to turn these phenomenal gains into socioeconomic and political catastrophes. Unmitigated, these catastrophes will largely play out in Pakistans
cities resulting in further deterioration, stalling and even reversing constructive socio-political and
economic processes. Pakistan can no longer afford to ignore the potential and promise that its expanding
but neglected cities offer. The key is to plan, nurture, leverage, and align urban spaces with the vision of
the 2015 Paris Agreement. In 2016, better urban planning, greener urban management and eco-friendly
urban resource optimisation should become a Number One priority for national policymakers. This
prioritisation should be in tandem with the long-awaited national census the Federal Government has
committed itself to holding in March 2016. Pakistans obsolete and politically rejected population data
needs to be authenticated and grounded in reality to create the space for credible policy projections and
decisions that can be framed in the Council of Common Interests (CCI). Fulfilling this commitment will
be a major litmus test for Prime Minister Nawaz Sharifs government in proving its post18th Amendment federalist credentials. If held successfully and credibly and with the support of the
Pakistan military, a 2016 population census could become a defining strategic campaigning and
bargaining tool for the PML-N in the 2018 general elections.
Fighting the Daesh foothold: For the longest time, the presence of Daesh in Pakistan was downplayed.
Many officials dismissed Daesh as a purely Middle Eastern phenomenon. But this year it became clear
that the terrorist network has raised its monstrous face in this region. Pakistani authorities continue to
downplay the Daeshs strategic foothold in Pakistan, a security concern that will have serious
ramifications in 2016. While most Daesh-affil iated TTP dissidents have fled across the border and are
concentrating their activities in Afghanistan, the problem is that Daesh forces have seized control of a
substantive part of Afghan Taliban territory in Nangarhar. Daeshs eastward advance is likely to
complicate the Afghan civil, as the Taliban struggle to maintain unity in their ranks. ADaesh footprint has
also been discovered in recent sectarian-based terrorist attacks in Pakistan in 2015. Robust Daesh
propaganda through the Internet and social media is also increasingly a source of radicalisation of
educated young Pakistanis.A glaring manifestation of Daeshs reach in Pakistan is the Ismaili bus attack
in Karachi this May. The university graduates involved in the heinous crime were reportedly influenced
by Daesh propaganda. The spread of Daesh will have dire consequences in an already combustible
regional situation. Only a collective regional effort can stop an enemy more relentless and savage than the
Taliban ever were.